自4月25日召开的中共中央政治局会议提出"要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"以来，金融部门快速 响应，在5月集中发布一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期。目前，降准降息、新的结构性货币政策工 具、债券市场"科技板"等政策措施陆续落地。尽管一揽子金融政策举措正在持续发挥政策效能，但考虑 到部分领域的结构性矛盾依然有待解决，新型政策性金融工具仍有出台必要，市场机构预计在二季度落 地。新型政策性金融工具或创新支持稳定外贸和扩大有效投资。在受访专家看来，财政货币政策有望提 供配套支持，通过扩张抵押补充贷款(PSL)和中央财政贴息支持新工具实施。(人民财讯) ...

服务消费与养老再贷款额度5000亿元，年利率1.5%，期限1年，可展期2次，最长使用期限不超过3年。 中国邮政储蓄银行研究员娄飞鹏接受《每日经济新闻》记者微信采访时指出，设立服务消费与养老再贷 款，有助于引导金融机构增加对养老领域的支持，更好发展养老金融，服务广大居民。 另有分析人士告诉《每日经济新闻》记者，这项新政策工具将激发服务消费和养老市场活力。 服务消费与养老再贷款额度5000亿元 每经记者｜张寿林 每经编辑｜陈星 5月9日，中国人民银行印发《关于设立服务消费与养老再贷款有关事宜的通知》，设立服务消费与养老 再贷款，激励引导金融机构加大对住宿餐饮、文体娱乐、教育等服务消费重点领域和养老产业的金融支 持。 娄飞鹏接受《每日经济新闻》记者采访时指出，设立服务消费与养老再贷款是落实中央政治局会议决策 部署的具体体现，有助于引导金融机构更好地支持提振消费，稳定和扩大内需，巩固经济回升向好态 势。同时，也引导金融机构增加对养老领域的支持，更好地发展养老金融，服务广大居民。 分析人士告诉《每日经济新闻》记者，这项新政策工具将激发服务消费和养老市场活力。一方面，可进 一步激发国内服务消费潜力，促进扩大服务消费供给、 ...

Report Overview - The report is a macro financial data daily report released by the Guomao Futures Research Institute's Macro Financial Research Center on May 7, 2025 [2][3] Central Bank Operations and Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted 405 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 1087 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 682 billion yuan [3] - This week, 1617.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open market will mature, with 1087 billion yuan and 530.8 billion yuan maturing on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively [4] - The Politburo meeting stated the need to "timely cut reserve - requirement ratios and interest rates", "create new structural monetary policy tools, and establish new policy - based financial tools to support technological innovation, expand consumption, and stabilize foreign trade" [4] Interest Rate Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change from Previous Day (bp) | | --- | --- | --- | | DRO01 | 1.71 | -7.58 | | DR007 | 1.73 | -7.14 | | GC001 | 1.71 | 17.00 | | GC007 | 1.74 | 1.50 | | SHBOR 3M | 1.75 | -0.20 | | LPR 5 - year | 3.60 | 0.00 | | 1 - year Treasury Bond | 1.46 | 0.25 | | 5 - year Treasury Bond | 1.51 | 0.75 | | 10 - year Treasury Bond | 1.63 | 0.50 | | 10 - year US Treasury Bond | 4.36 | 3.00 | [3] Stock Index and Futures Market Index Performance - The CSI 300 rose 1.01% to 3808.5, the SSE 50 rose 0.55% to 2647.7, the CSI 500 rose 1.93% to 5740.3, and the CSI 1000 rose 2.57% to 6102.9 [6] - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1336.2 billion yuan, an increase of 166.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day [6] - Most industry sectors rose, with small metals, power equipment, consumer electronics, precious metals, general equipment, communication equipment, computer equipment, diversified finance, and motor sectors leading the gains, while only the banking sector declined [6] Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change from Previous Day (%) | Volume Change (%) | Open Interest Change (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF Current Month | 3798 | 1.2 | 22.8 | 0.9 | | IH Current Month | 2646 | 0.7 | -0.6 | 0.0 | | IC Current Month | 5706 | 2.1 | 19.0 | 3.3 | | IM Current Month | 6060 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 2.9 | [5] Market Outlook and Strategy - On the first trading day after the holiday, the A - share market showed a gap - up and high - going trend driven by the collective recovery of overseas markets, with IM leading the gains in index futures [7] - Two repair drivers are worthy of attention: the expectation of Sino - US tariff relaxation and the verification of overseas AI industry prosperity are beneficial to improving market liquidity and boosting the technology sector; after the earnings disclosure window in late April, the performance uncertainty of small - and medium - cap companies has significantly decreased [7] - The CSI 1000's repair strength has significantly lagged behind large - cap indexes such as the CSI 300. If the market continues to recover, its technical catch - up potential is worthy of attention. Historically, the average excess return of CSI 1000 index constituents during the earnings vacuum period (May - July) is 2.3% [7] - It is expected that the significant differentiation between large - and small - cap styles may converge. The strategy is to focus on the elasticity release opportunities of small - and medium - cap stocks after the market stabilizes, with IM as the main long - position variety [7] Index Futures Premium and Discount | Variety | Current Month Contract | Next Month Contract | Current Quarter Contract | Next Quarter Contract | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF Premium/Discount | 10.49% | 9.02% | 7.04% | 5.35% | | IH Premium/Discount | 2.64% | 5.55% | 5.00% | 3.24% | | IC Premium/Discount | 22.09% | 16.72% | 11.98% | 9.90% | | IM Premium/Discount | 25.91% | 19.90% | 14.46% | 12.20% | [8]

不过，当下形势和924有很大不同，尽管受关税战冲击，但当前股票市场风险偏好已显著改善；同时4月zzj会议已 经召开，下一步政策方向部署已经定调（vs上一轮9·26zzj会议，9·24发布会更像是打前站）。 我们之前也反复强调，本轮应对外 华泰政策|关于5·07金融部门发布会前瞻 华泰政策|关于5·07金融部门发布会前瞻 ① 新闻发布会选择在开盘时间召开（9：00），形式和规格上都很像924，一行一局一会"一把手"集体亮相。 ① 新闻发布会选择在开盘时间召开（9：00），形式和规格上都很像924，一行一局一会"一把手"集体亮相。 不过，当下形势和924有很大不同，尽管受关税战冲击，但当前股票市场风险偏好已显著改善；同时4月zzj会议已 经召开，下一步政策方向部署已经定调（vs上一轮9·26zzj会议，9·24发布会更像是打前站）。 是双降or降准+结构性降息 or only降准？ 不同的组合对债券市场有不同含义。 我们认为，如果有降息指引，更大概率可能是结构性降息。 2）落实新的增量政策工具——创设新的结构性货币政策工具，设立新型政策性金融工具（科技消费和外贸）和推 出债市科技板；3）消费：服务消费与养老再贷款 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic and Financial Data - DRO01 closed at 1.54, down 5.09 bp; DR007 closed at 1.78, up 3.35 bp; GC001 closed at 1.61, down 28.50 bp; GC007 closed at 1.68, down 17.00 bp; SHBOR 3M closed at 1.75, unchanged; LPR 5 - year closed at 3.60, unchanged; 1 - year treasury closed at 1.46, down 0.50 bp; 5 - year treasury closed at 1.51, down 2.00 bp; 10 - year treasury closed at 1.62, down 2.35 bp; 10 - year US treasury closed at 4.23, down 6.00 bp [3] - The central bank conducted 340.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.50%, resulting in a net investment of 120 billion yuan [3] - This week, 504.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 176 billion, 220.5 billion, and 108 billion maturing from Monday to Wednesday respectively, and the funds due on Thursday and Friday will be postponed to the first trading day after the holiday [4] Group 2: Stock Index Futures and Options - The CSI 300 fell 0.17% to 3775.1; the SSE 50 fell 0.22% to 2645.5; the CSI 500 rose 0.12% to 5604.9; the CSI 1000 rose 0.45% to 5903.4. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.02 trillion yuan, a decrease of 34.3 billion yuan [5] - The central political bureau meeting on April 25 released limited incremental information on aggregate policies, emphasizing the implementation of existing policies and the refinement of support policies for specific areas [6] - The short - term trend of stock indices faces a situation of mixed long and short factors. The uncertainty of the Trump administration's actions complicates Sino - US tariff negotiations, while the better - than - expected Q1 economic data reduces the urgency of short - term incremental policies [6] - The short - term recommendation for stock index futures is to hold a light position and wait for the market direction to become clear. Before the May Day holiday, consider the double - buying strategy for stock index options due to overseas uncertainties and low option volatility [6] - The IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts have different levels of premium and discount rates for different delivery months [7]

Group 1: Market Interest Rates and Central Bank Operations - DRO01 closed at 1.54 with a -5.09bp change, DR007 at 1.78 with a 3.35bp change, GC001 at 1.61 with a -28.50bp change, GC007 at 1.68 with a -17.00bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.75 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.60 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.46 with a -0.50bp change, 5 - year treasury at 1.51 with a -2.00bp change, 10 - year treasury at 1.62 with a -2.35bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.23 with a -6.00bp change [3] - The central bank conducted 340.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.50%, resulting in a net daily injection of 120 billion yuan after 220.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [3] Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - This week, 504.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open - market operations, with 176 billion, 220.5 billion, and 108 billion maturing from Monday to Wednesday respectively, and the rest postponed to the first trading day after the May Day holiday [4] - The meeting mentioned "timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts", but the urgency of short - term cuts has decreased considering the first - quarter economic data and tariff uncertainties [4] Group 3: Stock Index Performance - The CSI 300 closed at 3775, down 0.17%; the SSE 50 at 2646, down 0.22%; the CSI 500 at 5604.9, up 0.12%; and the CSI 1000 at 5903.4, up 0.45%. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.02 trillion yuan, a decrease of 34.3 billion yuan [5] - Industry sectors showed more gains than losses, with beauty care, plastics products, pesticides and veterinary drugs, auto parts, chemical products, shipbuilding, and decoration sectors leading the gains, while the power, insurance, and shipping port sectors leading the losses [5] Group 4: Stock Index Futures and Options Strategy - The short - term trend of stock indices faces a situation of mixed long and short factors. The uncertainty of the Trump administration's actions complicates Sino - US tariff negotiations, while the first - quarter economic data reduces the urgency of short - term incremental policies [6] - The short - term recommendation is to hold a light position in stock index futures and wait for the market direction to become clear. Before the May Day holiday, consider the double - buying strategy for stock index options due to high overseas uncertainties and low option volatility [6] Group 5: Stock Index Futures Basis - The IF basis for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts is 9.83%, 9.35%, 7.10%, and 5.35% respectively; the IH basis is 5.29%, 6.45%, 5.38%, and 3.66% respectively; the IC basis is 11.92%, 14.74%, 11.12%, and 9.16% respectively; and the IM basis is 12.87%, 15.43%, 12.68%, and 11.23% respectively [7]

报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 4 月 30 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 4 月 29 日，万得全 A 缩量上涨，低开上涨后震荡运行，收涨 0.20%，超 6 成 个股飘红。指数现货方面，沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500、中证 1000 低开上涨后 震荡回落，尾盘有所回升，前二者收跌 0.17%、0.22%，后二者分别上涨 0.12%、 0.45%，中小盘股更为强势。指数期货方面，IH 主力合约表现弱于现货，收跌 0.26%， IF、IC、IM 主力合约表现强于现货，IF 收跌 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in tariffs on Chinese goods by the U.S. poses significant challenges for foreign trade enterprises in China, necessitating financial support to stabilize and enhance foreign trade operations [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Support for Foreign Trade Enterprises - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need for financial institutions to continue lending to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that are heavily reliant on foreign trade and facing temporary difficulties, ensuring their reasonable financing needs are met [1][4]. - Agricultural Bank of China has implemented policies to support SMEs in foreign trade, including a "no repayment" loan policy for those with technology and market potential but facing operational challenges [3][4]. - As of the end of March, Agricultural Bank of China has visited 27,900 foreign trade enterprises and issued loans totaling 131.2 billion yuan to 17,200 enterprises on its "recommendation list" [3]. Group 2: Currency Risk Management - With the increasing volatility of the RMB exchange rate, foreign trade enterprises face heightened currency risk, prompting a greater demand for currency hedging products [5][6]. - A technology company specializing in smart display devices has benefited from a tailored currency risk management solution that mitigates exchange rate fluctuations while reducing financial costs [6][7]. - Xiamen International Bank has introduced measures to lower the costs of currency hedging for eligible enterprises, including waiving margin requirements for foreign exchange derivatives, thereby easing the financial burden on foreign trade companies [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the banking sector, emphasizing the investment value of high-dividend, low-valuation bank stocks, particularly focusing on China Merchants Bank and Agricultural Bank of China [1][2]. Core Insights - The Central Political Bureau's recent meeting has signaled a more proactive macroeconomic policy, including potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, which are expected to enhance liquidity and support the banking sector [2][3]. - The report highlights the importance of structural monetary policy tools aimed at supporting technological innovation, consumption expansion, and stabilizing foreign trade, which will improve banks' ability to serve the real economy [2][3]. - The banking sector is currently facing uncertainties due to U.S.-China trade negotiations, but the high dividend yield of bank stocks remains attractive for investors [1][2]. Summary by Sections Banking Sector Performance - The banking index decreased by 0.32% this week, underperforming the Wind All A Index, which rose by 1.15% [11][12]. - Among different types of banks, state-owned banks saw an average increase of 0.89%, while joint-stock banks experienced an average decline of 1.28% [11][14]. Market Liquidity - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 600 billion yuan MLF operation, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 500 billion yuan, indicating a continued effort to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [3][29]. - The report notes a decrease in SHIBOR overnight rates to 1.57%, reflecting a broader trend of declining interest rates in the interbank market [32][33]. Bond Market - The bond market saw a total financing of 22,454.7 billion yuan this week, with a net financing of 1,215.2 billion yuan, indicating a decrease compared to the previous week [40][44]. - The report highlights that the issuance of financial bonds and medium-term notes has increased, contributing to the overall financing activity in the bond market [40][44]. Individual Bank Performance - Agricultural Bank of China recorded the highest stock price increase among state-owned banks at 2.40%, while joint-stock banks generally underperformed, with an average decline of 1.28% [14][27]. - The report also notes that the average P/B ratio for state-owned banks is 0.69X, indicating potential undervaluation in the sector [17][27].

Group 1: Macroeconomic and Financial Data - The central bank conducted 279 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday with an operating rate of 1.50%, resulting in a net daily investment of 103 billion yuan after 176 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [3] - This week, 504.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open - market operations will mature, with 176 billion, 220.5 billion, and 108 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Wednesday respectively, and the funds due on Thursday and Friday will be postponed to the first trading day after the holiday [4] - The meeting mentioned "timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts", creating new structural monetary policy tools, and establishing new policy - based financial tools, but the urgency of short - term reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts has decreased [4] Group 2: Bond Market - DR001 closed at 1.45% with a - 1.96bp change, DR007 at 1.75% with a 3.59bp change, GC001 at 1.90% with a 21.50bp change, and GC007 at 1.85% with a 7.00bp change [3] - SHBOR 3M remained at 1.75% with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.60% with no change, 1 - year treasury bond at 1.46% with a 1.00bp change, 5 - year treasury bond at 1.54% with a - 0.50bp change, 10 - year treasury bond at 1.65% with a - 1.25bp change, and 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.29% with a - 3.00bp change [3] Group 3: Stock Index Futures and Spot Market - Yesterday, the CSI 300 fell 0.14% to 3781.6, the SSE 50 rose 0.09% to 2651.2, the CSI 500 fell 0.51% to 5598.3, and the CSI 1000 fell 1.05% to 5877.1. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.0564 trillion yuan, a decrease of 57.2 billion yuan from last Friday [5] - Industry sectors generally declined, with real estate services, real estate development, food and beverage, tourism and hotels, engineering consulting services, decoration and building materials, and commercial department stores leading the decline, while only banks, games, jewelry, steel, and power industries rose [5] - The Politburo meeting on April 25 released limited incremental information on aggregate policies, emphasizing the implementation of existing policies and the refinement of support policies in specific areas [6] - The short - term trend of stock indices faces a situation of mixed long and short factors. The uncertainty of the Trump administration's actions complicates Sino - US tariff negotiations, while the strong Q1 economic data in China reduces the urgency of short - term incremental policies [6] - The short - term recommendation is to hold a light position in stock index futures and wait for the market direction to become clear. Considering the high overseas uncertainty during the May Day holiday and the low option volatility, a double - buying strategy for stock index options can be considered before the holiday [6] Group 4: Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount - The IF premium/discount rates for the current - quarter, next - month, current - month, and next - quarter contracts are 10.41%, 9.29%, 7.33%, and 5.51% respectively [7] - The IH premium/discount rates for the corresponding contracts are 4.46%, 6.03%, 5.41%, and 3.56% respectively [7] - The IC premium/discount rates for the corresponding contracts are 15.32%, 15.66%, 11.48%, and 9.61% respectively [7] - The IM premium/discount rates for the corresponding contracts are 16.86%, 17.35%, 13.18%, and 11.40% respectively [7]