中新社北京12月18日电 (记者 刘亮)明年是中国"十五五"开局之年，前不久召开的中央经济工作会议在 部署来年经济工作任务时，"置顶"了内需这一重要议题，提出"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"。 多位专家在18日举行的"《财经》年会2026：预测与战略暨2025全球财富管理论坛"上表示，目前中国经 济运行中最突出的问题是国内供强需弱矛盾突出。未来供求关系如何演变，将是观察中国经济发展的重 要线索。 中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副所长张斌说，走出需求不足困境之关键，不是逐一解决所有深 层原因，而是果断打破其负向传递链条。在他看来，在打破传递链条过程中，政策要聚焦于改变信贷、 投资、资产价格这些"快变量"，带动收入、消费等"慢变量"回升。"投资和消费相互促进，而不是争抢 资源。" "改善收入分配是打破消费制约的关键。"中国社会科学院学部委员蔡昉指出，"分好蛋糕"有助于"做大 蛋糕"。在他看来，改善收入分配需多措并举，根本在于提升人力资本，为此需构建覆盖终身的教育培 训体系并统筹优化教育资源，着力消除就业歧视、弥补重点人群技能缺口。此外，还需强化税收等再分 配手段的调节力度。 中信建投证券首席经济学家黄文涛认 ...

零售板块，过去几年在A股市场上一直较为冷淡。 以零售板块龙头永辉超市为例，自2020年4月以来，永辉股价持续下跌，至2024年"924"行情之前，永辉股价已然跌去近70%。 回看板块内其他企业，也是如此。 "924"行情以前，东百集团等一众零售商场上市公司，要么持续阴跌，要么横盘近四年。 但最近，零售板块集体躁动。 百大集团直接收获六连板，东百集团10天6板，红旗连锁、广百股份、茂业商业接连涨停，连沉寂多年的永辉也收获多个涨停板。 但在市场热情和政策暖风之下，零售板块，到底能否彻底反转？ 01 零售板块这一波行情，来源于近期一系列的政策利好。 此前，中央经济工作会议将"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"，位列明年八大重点任务之首。 近日，国家发改委也在《求是》发文，再次强调要"坚定实施扩大内需战略"，核心在于"提升居民消费意愿"和"增强居民消费能力"，无不彰显了国家层面提 振消费的决心。 在最近召开的中国经济年会上，国家发展改革委副秘书长肖渭明表示，要全方位扩大国内需求，深入实施提振消费专项行动，加快放宽服务消费限制，加快 出台实施首发经济、赛事经济、电子商务、"人工智能+"消费等领域提振消费的政策。 不难想象 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities emphasizes the importance of the medium- to long-term consumption goals outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" and highlights the need for specific consumption policies to be implemented by 2026 [1] Group 1: Consumption Industry Outlook - The global consumption recovery is slow, with high tariffs pushing up prices and high interest rates suppressing credit demand, leading to weakened consumer confidence in Europe and the US [1] - The Central Economic Work Conference has proposed a focus on domestic demand, aiming to build a strong domestic market and implement actions to boost consumption, including plans to increase urban and rural residents' income [1] - The report expresses a more optimistic view on service consumption compared to goods consumption, noting recent policies that enhance the focus on service consumption and the removal of unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector [1] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Retail Performance - In November, the retail sales growth rate was +1.3% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 1.6 percentage points, marking a continuous decrease since May [2] - The reduction in national subsidies is reflected in the retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment, which saw declines of -14.6% and -19.4% year-on-year in October and November, respectively [2] - Retail sales in the furniture category showed a year-on-year increase of +9.6% in October, while daily necessities experienced a growth of +7.4%, indicating a weakening trend [2] Group 3: Category-Specific Insights - The gold and jewelry category saw significant growth of +37.6% and +8.5% year-on-year in October and November, influenced by new tax policies affecting gold jewelry [3] - The clothing, footwear, and textile categories maintained stable growth rates of +6.3% and +3.5% year-on-year, supported by seasonal changes [3] - The cosmetics sector also showed improvement, with year-on-year growth rates of +9.6% and +6.1% in October and November, aided by promotional activities [3] Group 4: Global Consumer Sentiment - Consumer confidence in Europe and the US remains weak, with the US consumer confidence index at 53.3, close to historical lows, and the EU consumer confidence index at -13.6, indicating a relatively low level of optimism [4] - Overall retail performance in the US has been subdued, with a year-on-year increase of +3.9% in September, reflecting a decline from August [4] - Online sales during the holiday shopping week showed modest growth, with Black Friday and Cyber Monday experiencing increases of +9.3% and +7.1% year-on-year, respectively, amidst intense competition [4]

透视11月数据 3个关键词锚定明年经济工作 第一个关键词：服务消费。身边抢演唱会门票、打卡文旅展览的人越来越多，这个现象并非偶然，而是 消费升级的必然！国家统计局数据显示，1-11月份，服务零售额同比增长5.4%，增速比上月加快0.1个 百分点，连续3个月回升，而且快于商品零售额增速。同时，1-11月份，文体休闲服务类、通讯信息服 务类零售额均保持两位数增长。比如，从周末滑雪的雪票，到晚间追剧的视频会员，这些看似日常的消 费选择，实则是居民"悦己型"服务消费需求释放的生动注脚。 国家统计局新闻发言人透露，未来将持续加大对教育、医疗、住房、基本公共服务等民生保障领域的投 入。 实际上，这与今年中央经济工作会议所强调的"投资于物和投资于人紧密结合"的要求一脉相承。国家推 进教育资源优化、稳岗增收、完善社保，就是在给大家"充电赋能"。人的能力提升了，收入持续增加， 才能敢消费、会消费，从而支撑新质生产力发展。毕竟，人工智能、高端制造等赛道，终究拼的还 是"人的智慧和创造力"。 总之，投资于人提升能力，能力带动服务消费升级，消费带动提质增效，这不仅是11月经济数据传递出 的信号，更是中央定调的明年经济发展主线和工作方 ...

"天气降温以后，只想跟闺蜜找个洗浴中心一边美美刷剧，一边放松吃吃喝喝。黑金会员直接领券，非 常划算，赶紧下单。"来自北京的张女士分享了自己的消费体验。 12月17日，美团最近数据显示，15日启动的"18会员惊喜日"活动，平台联合洗浴中心、亲子乐园等多个 休闲玩乐商家，推出高质价比玩乐套餐，活动上线24小时内，线上交易额突破一亿元，其中，美团黑金 黑钻会员贡献交易超六成，成为服务消费的中坚力量。 据悉，本次"18会员惊喜日"期间，北京、上海、深圳、广州、成都、杭州等地的黑金黑钻用户消费热情 高涨，水裹汤泉、郑远元等多个休闲玩乐品牌在美团上的交易额周环比增长超20%。 据悉，为助力冬季消费旺季，更好满足消费者需求，美团联合多个休闲玩乐品牌，覆盖冬季高频需求的 洗浴、理疗、新年变美等多重服务消费场景，面向美团黑金、黑钻会员推出"全网低价玩乐套餐"。在美 团App搜索"会员专属价"，水裹汤泉浴资门票、郑远元冬日养生理疗等多个高性价比团购套餐，领券最 高立减30元。同时，在北京、上海等26座城市，美团休闲玩乐还面向黑钻会员推出"丽人美发"免费权 益，每个季度可免费体验洗剪吹、美甲、瑜伽等生活服务。 "随着休闲玩乐供给的 ...

你的消费里，可能藏着接下来的发展机遇！中央经济工作会议刚刚明确明年发展的八大重点任务，11月 经济数据随即重磅发布。12月15日，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍2025年11月份国民经济运行情况。看 懂这3个核心关键词，就摸清了经济高质量发展的底层脉络。 第一个关键词：服务消费。身边抢演唱会门票、打卡文旅展览的人越来越多，这个现象并非偶然，而是 消费升级的必然！国家统计局数据显示，1-11月份，服务零售额同比增长5.4%，增速比上月加快0.1个 百分点，连续3个月回升，而且快于商品零售额增速。同时，1-11月份，文体休闲服务类、通讯信息服 务类零售额均保持两位数增长。比如，从周末滑雪的雪票，到晚间追剧的视频会员，这些看似日常的消 费选择，实则是居民"悦己型"服务消费需求释放的生动注脚。 相关研究表明，演艺活动每增加1元的门票收入，能够带动6.85元的综合消费，直接撬动餐饮、住宿、 交通等多个关联产业的发展。可以说，你我产生的每一笔服务消费，都是推动我国产业结构优化升级的 具体体现。而更值得关注的是，中央经济工作会议部署的八大重点任务中，"坚持内需主导，建设强大 国内市场"被置于首要位置。而蓬勃发展的服务消费，正是 ...

服务消费潜能加快释放。前11个月，服务零售额同比增长5.4%，增速连续3个月回升，而且快于商品零售额增速；文体休闲服务类、通讯信息服务类零 售额同比增长均超过10%。 高技术服务业投资力度不断加大。前11个月，高技术服务业投资同比增长4.1%，比去年同期提高0.6个百分点。其中，信息服务业投资增长达到29.6%。 央视网消息（新闻联播）：今年前11个月，我国服务业发展持续向好，服务消费潜力持续释放，对经济增长的支撑作用日益增强。 前11个月，全国服务业生产指数同比增长5.6%。铁路运输、货币金融服务等行业的商务活动指数，在11月份都位于55.0%以上的较高景气区间。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][29] Core Insights - The overall consumption data for November 2025 shows stable performance, with service consumption remaining robust, providing growth momentum for the industry. There is a focus on expanding domestic demand [3] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in November reached 4.4 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%, but a month-on-month decline. Restaurant revenue was 605.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [1][3] - The service sector PMI for October was 49.5%, indicating a contraction below the critical point of 50% [1] Summary by Sections Domestic Macro Data - Retail sales in November 2025 totaled 4.39 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, but a month-on-month decline of 1.6 percentage points, falling short of the Wind consensus expectation of 2.93%. The decline was influenced by the early "Double Eleven" sales activities and a reduction in national subsidies. Retail sales of goods grew by 1.0% year-on-year, while restaurant revenue increased by 3.2% [1][3] - Service consumption remains strong, with a year-on-year growth of 5.4% in service retail sales from January to November, marking a continuous recovery over three months. This growth rate is 1.3 percentage points higher than that of goods retail sales during the same period [1][3] - The unemployment rate in November remained stable at 5.1%, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points. The average weekly working hours for employed persons was 48.6 hours [1][3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies likely to benefit from the recovery in tourism and travel consumption, such as Lingnan Holdings and Tongcheng Travel. Other recommended companies include Tianmuhu, Lijiang Co., Songcheng Performance, China Youth Travel, Jinjiang Hotels, Junting Hotels, and ShouLai Hotels, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in business travel [3] - Local dining representatives like Tongqinglou and quality targets in the performance industry such as Fengshang Culture and Dafeng Industrial are also highlighted. Key players in the conference and exhibition sector include Miao Exhibition and Lansheng Co. [3]

Core Viewpoint - The central economic work meeting emphasizes the importance of domestic demand as the primary task for 2026, marking a shift from short-term demand expansion to establishing a long-term mechanism for sustainable growth [1][2]. Group 1: Domestic Demand as a Priority - The meeting prioritizes expanding effective demand, particularly domestic demand, highlighting its critical role in stabilizing growth and driving high-quality development amid rising external uncertainties [2][8]. - Experts suggest that strengthening the domestic market is essential for China's modernization strategy, aiming to enhance domestic circulation stability to counter international uncertainties [2][3]. Group 2: Strategies for Enhancing Domestic Demand - A dual approach is proposed: immediate actions to boost consumption through the removal of unreasonable restrictions and long-term policies to optimize supply and demand alignment [3][4]. - The introduction of a systematic "urban and rural residents' income increase plan" signifies a fundamental shift in expanding domestic demand logic, focusing on enhancing consumer capacity and income [4][5]. Group 3: Service Consumption as a New Growth Engine - The meeting highlights the importance of releasing service consumption potential, particularly in sectors like elderly care, cultural tourism, and digital entertainment, to enhance consumer choices and experiences [5][6]. - The integration of service consumption with the "Two New" policies aims to elevate the digital and intelligent levels of the service industry, fostering a more resilient domestic demand ecosystem [6][7]. Group 4: Stimulating Private Investment - The meeting calls for effective stimulation of private investment, noting a 4.5% year-on-year increase in private investment in infrastructure for the first ten months of 2025, with a focus on sectors like AI and green energy [7][8]. - High-quality urban renewal is identified as a key pathway to expand effective investment while optimizing the consumption environment [7].

Group 1 - The core focus of the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is to promote high-quality development and ensure significant progress towards Chinese-style modernization, with a key indicator being the per capita GDP reaching the level of middle-developed countries, which is currently averaged at $23,000 according to the World Bank [1] - Achieving high-quality development requires a transformation and upgrading of the economic structure, which is closely linked to high-level technological self-reliance and innovation [1] - The integration of AI into production is emphasized as a crucial step in converting scientific discoveries into productive forces, highlighting the importance of technology in the modernization process [1] Group 2 - The future of AI is closely tied to ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) goals, with the establishment of computing power centers being a critical competitive point globally [2] - The shift from water cooling to liquid cooling in computing power centers is noted as a significant advancement in reducing energy consumption, which aligns with ESG objectives [2] - Discussions at the forum included the need for stable employment across traditional, new, and flexible job forms, with traditional manufacturing being vital for job stability [2] Group 3 - The transition from an industrial society to a knowledge society is proposed through the establishment of a three-tier knowledge system at the county, town, and village levels [3] - The next 20 years are expected to present new opportunities in overseas expansion, new consumption patterns, and artificial intelligence, with significant potential for growth in service consumption and the silver economy [3] - The Long Triangle National Technology Innovation Center is addressing the challenge of financing for early-stage innovative projects by advocating for a "grant-investment combination" model to support major innovation initiatives [3]