Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The extended Spring Festival holiday stimulated travel demand, with domestic travel reaching 596 million trips, a daily average of 66 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.7% and recovering to 112% of the 2019 level [8] - Total domestic travel expenditure was 803.48 billion yuan, with a daily average of 89.3 billion yuan, up 5.5% year-on-year and recovering to 122% of the 2019 level [8] - Per capita spending during the holiday was 1,348 yuan, with a daily average of 150 yuan, down 11.3% year-on-year and recovering to 84.7% of the 2019 level [8] Summary by Sections Scenic Areas - Scenic areas experienced high visitor flow, with many reaching maximum capacity during the holiday. Notable performances included Emei Mountain and the Three Gorges Dam, with year-on-year increases of 23% and 74% respectively [19] - Compared to 2019, Emei Mountain, Changbai Mountain, the Three Gorges Dam, and Zhangjiajie Wulingyuan showed strong recovery, with daily visitor numbers at 163%, 265%, 171%, and 169% of the 2019 levels respectively [19] - The number of visitors to projects under SanTe Cableway increased by 18.2%, while those under Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism rose by 31.3% [19] Duty-Free Sales - Hainan's offshore duty-free sales saw double-digit growth, with Sanya outperforming Haikou. During the holiday, duty-free shopping amounted to 2.72 billion yuan, with a daily average of 303 million yuan, up 16.5% year-on-year [26] - Sanya's duty-free sales reached 1.96 billion yuan, with a daily average of 218 million yuan, up 21% [26] Performing Arts - The number of performances remained stable with slight increases. During the holiday, 580 performances of "The Eternal Love" were held, an increase of 30 performances compared to the previous year [32] Outbound Tourism - The extended holiday combined with "leave-packing" travel stimulated outbound tourism demand, with 17.796 million people entering and exiting the country, a daily average of 1.977 million, up 10.1% year-on-year [34] - Among these, 9.514 million were mainland residents, with a daily increase of 10.2% [34] Inbound Tourism - The visa-free policy positively impacted inbound tourism, with 1.313 million foreigners entering the country, a daily increase of 21.8%, and 460,000 of them benefiting from the visa-free policy, up 28.5% [39] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the service consumption sector, particularly travel-related industries such as scenic areas and hotels. It also recommends paying attention to duty-free and retail sectors for product consumption [45]

Group 1: Market Performance - Hong Kong stocks rebounded strongly after four consecutive declines, with the consumption ETF Huatai (159268) rising nearly 1% and trading volume reaching approximately 600 million yuan [1] - Major component stocks showed positive performance, with Haidilao increasing nearly 6%, Anta Sports rising over 3%, and China Duty Free and Mengniu Dairy both up over 1% [1] Group 2: Policy Developments - Shanghai's five departments issued a notice to optimize real estate policies, including adjustments to housing purchase restrictions and housing provident fund loan policies, effective from February 26, 2026 [3] - A recent meeting emphasized the importance of supporting local and enterprise initiatives to explore new growth points, particularly in the silver economy and elderly care services [3] Group 3: Consumer Trends - During the Spring Festival holiday, domestic travel reached 596 million trips, an increase of 95 million compared to the previous year, with total spending of 803.48 billion yuan, marking a historical high [3] - The consumption sector in A-shares rebounded after three consecutive declines, with the leading consumption ETF (159928) rising over 1% and net inflows exceeding 48 million yuan in the past five days [3] Group 4: Service Consumption Insights - The hotel industry saw a significant increase in revenue per available room (REVPAR) by 30.7% during the Spring Festival week compared to the previous year, driven by strong demand and price stabilization among leading groups [6] - Hainan's duty-free shopping during the Spring Festival saw a 19% increase in spending and a 24.6% increase in visitors compared to the same period last year [7] Group 5: Economic Outlook - The focus on expanding domestic demand is becoming a long-term strategy for China's economic growth, with an emphasis on improving residents' income and enhancing service consumption [9] - Signs of recovery in domestic demand are evident, with consumer confidence stabilizing and an increase in disposable income growth rates [10] - The real estate sector is showing signs of stabilization after years of decline, with recent policy changes aimed at improving market conditions [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the emphasis on the "five musts" for economic work under new circumstances, which enriches and develops Xi Jinping's economic thought, serving as both a scientific summary of past practices and a guide for future economic and social development [1] Group 2 - Service consumption is crucial as it connects the economy and people's livelihoods, covering various sectors such as dining, accommodation, elderly care, education, and health services. By 2025, the proportion of per capita service consumption expenditure to total per capita consumption expenditure is expected to reach 46.1%, indicating a shift towards a balanced focus on both goods and services [3] - There is a need to fully tap into economic potential, which is essentially the unexploited productive capacity that serves as a source of economic growth. As the world's second-largest economy, China has significant development potential, particularly in domestic demand, innovation, and regional development [3] Group 3 - The necessity of combining policy support with reform and innovation is highlighted. Current economic challenges are intertwined, requiring comprehensive measures that balance short-term macroeconomic stabilization with long-term institutional construction [4] Group 4 - The relationship between government and market is central to economic reform. A high-level socialist market economy must balance effective markets with proactive government roles, ensuring that market mechanisms are not hindered while maintaining order and fairness in competition [5] Group 5 - Investment strategies should integrate both material and human investments. As economic growth shifts from expansion to quality improvement, there is an increasing urgency to focus on human capital development alongside physical investments [6] Group 6 - To address external challenges, it is essential to strengthen internal capabilities. High-quality development is necessary to navigate the complexities of the international environment, ensuring that China maintains its strategic focus on domestic growth amidst external uncertainties [7]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities emphasizes that boosting domestic demand will be a key focus for economic development in 2026, with significant potential for growth in consumer services compared to overseas markets, supported by improved policies on consumption subsidies [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The service consumption sector is expected to become a new focal point for the country, with monetary, temporal, and supply-side constraints providing strong policy support [1] - The report suggests that the allocation of funds in the sector is at a historical low, and overall valuations have already reflected many pessimistic expectations [1] - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for service consumption, with policies gradually aligning with residents' income expectations, leading to a recovery in inflation expectations and sector-specific prosperity [1] Group 2: Key Investment Themes - Mainline theme of cyclical recovery includes high-end recovery and a new duty-free cycle driven by increasing policies, a turning point in hotel supply-demand balance, and improved CPI expectations reflected in restaurant same-store performance [1] - The secondary theme focuses on specific sectors benefiting from stable employment policies, including public examinations and vocational education, silver-haired tourism, innovative tea drinks, and advancements in new technologies and AI applications [1] Group 3: Holiday Performance Insights - The report highlights that the high consumer activity during the Spring Festival has positively impacted the performance of chain consumption and travel leaders in Hong Kong and the US stock markets, with some undervalued education stocks experiencing a rebound due to liquidity recovery [1] - The duty-free sector, which had high pre-holiday expectations, saw some corrections before the holiday [1] Group 4: Travel and Tourism Data - During the Spring Festival, cross-regional personnel flow in China increased by 9.6% year-on-year, with railway and civil aviation passenger flow growing by 11.3% and 7.7%, respectively [2] - The longest Spring Festival holiday historically has driven significant growth in mid-to-long-distance travel, with waterway passenger traffic increasing by 29.8% [2] - Daily average inbound and outbound travel during the Spring Festival reached 1.977 million, a 10.1% increase compared to the previous year [2] Group 5: Subsector Performance - The hotel industry saw a 30.7% year-on-year increase in REVPAR during the Spring Festival week, with occupancy rates up by 8.1% and average daily rates up by 13.5% [3] - Duty-free shopping in Hainan during the holiday period reached 1.38 billion yuan, with a 19% increase in spending and a 24.6% increase in visitors compared to the previous year [3] - Local retail and dining sales during the first four days of the holiday increased by 8.6% compared to the same period in 2025, indicating a ramp-up in local consumption [3]

Core Viewpoint - The government is actively responding to suggestions from representatives regarding the promotion of service consumption, which is seen as a key driver for economic growth and improving people's livelihoods [1] Group 1: Policy Initiatives - A series of policies aimed at boosting service consumption have been implemented, reflecting the government's commitment to enhancing consumer experiences and economic vitality [1] - The Ministry of Commerce has developed a work plan to address the suggestions made by representatives, conducting extensive research and discussions across various regions [2] - New policies have been introduced to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption and to expand service consumption through innovative business models and pilot programs [2] Group 2: Digital Consumption - Digital technology is significantly expanding the space and experience of service consumption, with representatives highlighting the need for improvements in infrastructure and service supply [2][3] - The Ministry of Commerce has issued guidelines to promote digital consumption, incorporating suggestions from representatives to enhance demand stimulation and create a supportive environment for digital products and services [3] Group 3: Engagement with Representatives - The Ministry of Commerce is committed to effectively processing suggestions from representatives, ensuring that their insights are translated into practical measures for reform and development [5] - In 2025, the Ministry received a total of 1,020 suggestions and proposals during the National Two Sessions, indicating a strong engagement with various stakeholders in the business sector [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the consumer promotion policy is expected to remain stable until 2026, but the recovery of the fundamental economy will take time due to adjustments in household balance sheets [1] - The social service sector is projected to focus on structural opportunities in the first half of the year, with a total of 42 listed companies having released performance forecasts for 2025, resulting in a disclosure rate of 49% and an overall expected profit rate of 45%, ranking sixth among eight major consumption sectors [2][3] - The consumption structure in China is shifting from a focus on goods to a balanced emphasis on both goods and services, with experience-based service consumption anticipated to become a primary growth engine [1] Group 2 - The social service industry consists of 85 A-share companies, with 42 having released performance forecasts, placing the disclosure rate at 49%, ranking fourth among consumption sectors [2] - Among the companies that have released forecasts, only 14% are expected to see year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders, a decrease of 4% compared to 2024; the proportion of companies turning losses into profits and those continuing to incur losses has increased to 10% and 48%, respectively [2] - The tourism and scenic area sector is showing signs of recovery, with 8 out of 13 companies that have disclosed forecasts expected to be profitable; the hotel and restaurant sector is also performing well, with two companies expecting profit increases and a decrease in loss ratios [3]

1）量端，国内游方面，根据交通运输部统计，2026除夕-正月初六全社会跨区域人员流动量同比增长 9.6%，其中铁路、民航客流各增长11.3%、7.7%。其中史上最长春节带动返乡+旅游，与中长途旅行相 关的民航、铁路显著改善；而邮轮等水上旅游产品回暖及海南封关带动琼州海峡客运量等推动水路客运 量同比增长29.8%；出入境游方面，据国家移民管理局，2026年春节假期日均出入境197.7万人次，较去 年春节假期日均增长10.1%。2）价端，根据DAST统计，春运前21天累计机票票价同比增长3.6%，预计 假期票价增速高于节前（2.22票价同比增长6.3%）。 子行业：酒店提价逻辑验证，海南免税双位数增长，祈福景区表现突出，本地零售餐饮环比提速 国信证券发布研报称，2026年提振内需成为经济发展重中之重，其中我国居民服务消费对比海外具备较 大提升潜力，有望成为国家在商品消费补贴进一步优化基础上的新抓手，金钱、时间、供给侧约束都为 政策提供良好着力点。板块资金配置处于历史低位且整体估值已反映诸多悲观预期，该行建议重视2026 年服务消费元年，伴随政策逐步向居民收入预期等传导，全年维度布局通胀预期修复与细分景气两条主 线 ...

Group 1: New Scenes - The 2026 Spring Festival is characterized by a shift towards "traveling for the New Year" and "vacation-style celebrations," with families increasingly opting for travel experiences over traditional visits [2][4] - In Fuzhou, the ancient city of Lichuan saw a surge in family outings, with fully booked accommodations and popular activities like free oil painting experiences attracting visitors [2][4] - Young consumers are becoming the main force in Spring Festival spending, with unique venues like Yuefang ID MALL in Changsha and the "Future Ocean" exhibition in Tianjin drawing significant crowds [4][6] Group 2: New Trends - There is a noticeable shift from purchasing physical goods to services, with consumers willing to pay for convenience and quality [5][6] - In Chongqing, the rise of home chef services reflects this trend, with families finding value in customized meal preparations [5][6] - Professional cleaning services are also gaining popularity, particularly among younger families, indicating a growing trend of outsourcing household tasks [5] Group 3: New Flow - The Spring Festival has seen a boost in "China Travel" and "China Shopping," with an increase in foreign tourists and a more open approach to international visitors [6][7] - In Hainan, the duty-free shopping experience has become a major attraction, with significant sales figures reported during the holiday period [6][7] - The implementation of visa-free policies for certain countries has further enhanced the appeal of China as a destination for international travelers, with predictions of over 2.05 million travelers entering the country during the holiday [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of consumer spending as a key driver of economic growth and highlights the government's proactive measures in responding to suggestions from representatives to enhance service consumption and improve living standards [1][4]. Group 1: Government Response to Suggestions - The Ministry of Commerce has actively engaged with representatives to address their suggestions, leading to the formulation of practical measures aimed at boosting service consumption [2][3]. - A total of 1,020 suggestions and proposals were received by the Ministry of Commerce during the 2025 National Two Sessions, with 584 being suggestions and 436 proposals, covering various aspects of trade and economic reform [4]. Group 2: Focus on Service Consumption - The article outlines a shift in consumer spending towards enhancing quality of life and self-development, while also noting the challenges in service sector contributions to GDP compared to developed countries [1][2]. - The Ministry of Commerce has introduced policies to cultivate new growth points in service consumption and expand service offerings, including innovative consumption models and pilot programs [2][3]. Group 3: Digital Consumption Development - Representatives have raised concerns regarding the infrastructure and regulatory challenges facing digital consumption, prompting the Ministry of Commerce to prioritize these issues in their policy framework [3]. - The Ministry has collaborated with other departments to develop guidelines aimed at fostering digital consumption, addressing structural imbalances in product and service offerings [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][33] Core Insights - As of February 15, 2026, 42 out of 85 listed companies in the social services sector have released their 2025 earnings forecasts, resulting in a disclosure rate of 49%. The overall pre-profit rate for the sector is 45%, ranking sixth among eight major consumer sectors. The consumption structure in China is shifting from goods to a balanced focus on both goods and services, with experience-based service consumption expected to be a major growth driver. For 2026, stable consumer policy guidance is anticipated, but recovery in the fundamentals will take time due to adjustments in household balance sheets. The first half of 2026 is expected to present mainly structural opportunities [2][3][30]. Summary by Sections Disclosure and Performance - The social services sector has a disclosure rate of 49%, ranking fifth among eight major consumer sectors. Among the 42 companies that have released forecasts, only 19 are expected to be profitable, leading to a pre-profit rate of 45%, which is the sixth highest among consumer sectors. Compared to 2024, the performance of the social services sector is under pressure, with only 14% of companies expected to see year-on-year profit growth, a decrease of 4% from the previous year. The proportion of companies turning losses into profits and those continuing to incur losses has increased to 10% and 48%, respectively, with nearly half of the companies continuing to report losses [3][11][30]. Subsector Performance - Most subsectors have a disclosure rate exceeding 50%, with the tourism and scenic spots sector showing signs of recovery. Among 13 companies that have disclosed forecasts in this sector, 8 are expected to be profitable. The professional services sector remains stable with over half expected to be profitable, while the sports sector is expected to incur losses. The tourism and scenic spots sector continues to face pressure, but there are positive signals of recovery, with the proportion of companies turning losses into profits increasing from 8% to 23%. The hotel and restaurant sector is performing well, with two companies expecting profit increases and a decrease in loss ratios. The education sector, however, is underperforming, with 7 out of 10 companies continuing to report losses [4][15][16][30]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the travel chain sector that will benefit from the implementation of the spring and autumn holiday system and the gradual recovery of consumer confidence. Additionally, attention should be given to leading chain restaurants that are in a critical phase of scaling up and increasing market share, as well as the early-stage value of emerging experience-based sectors such as sports events and concerts [2][30].