铜周报：降息落地铜价回调，基本面支撑仍强 2025-9-22 01 主要观点策略 02 宏观及产业资讯 03 期现市场及持仓情况 目 录 04 基本面数据 01 主要观点策略 01 主要观点策略 p 供给端：截至9月18日，铜精矿现货粗炼费为-41.4美元/吨，铜精矿现货粗炼费继续维持历史低位，矿冶矛盾持续。截至9月12日， 国内铜精矿港口库存57.4万吨，铜精矿港口库存低位小幅回升，但仍处于历年低位。8月我国电解铜产量117.15万吨，环比减少0.24%， 同比增加15.59%，国内精炼铜产量增速保持稳定，9月进入冶炼厂关停检修高峰，叠加政策端对阳极铜供给影响，电解铜产量预计减少。 p 需求端：下游消费暂无明显起色，临近国庆开工率小幅提升。截至9月18日，国内主要精铜杆企业周度开工率上升至70.49%，环比 上升2.96个百分点，同比下降8.83个百分点。部分企业为规避月底集中备库造成的原料价格上涨风险，提前陆续为国庆假期生产备库。 周尾铜价下跌也使下游提货边际增强，提升上周开工水平。8月铜板带、铜管、铜箔开工率分别为65.87%、65.70%、78.44%。铜价 重心抬升使得下游制造企业采购意愿明显下降， ...

来源：前主编 北京时间9月18日凌晨，美联储宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调到4.00%至4.25%之间。 投资者确信美联储将在周三进行今年首次政策利率下调。近期数据支持适度降息，但美联储明智的做法 是避免暗示未来将进一步降息或果断转向宽松政策。就目前而言，数据过于混乱，不适合任何此类转 变，央行需要保持开放心态。 劳动力市场比美联储政策制定者上次开会时所认为的要更为疲软。近期的数据修正大幅下调了截至三月 份的年就业人数预估，而最新一周的初请失业金人数显示增加至26.3万人，为四年来的最高水平。这些 数字众所周知波动很大，但就业市场显然正在走弱。 这似乎需要强有力的货币刺激。问题在于，通胀尚未可靠地朝着美联储2%的目标迈进。八月份，剔除 食品和能源的消费者价格指数（即所谓的核心CPI）环比上涨0.3%，同比上涨3.1%。这与预期大致相 符，并未给投资者任何理由怀疑本周政策利率会被下调。但事实仍然是：高于目标的通胀顽固地拒绝回 落。 美联储继续假设，当前4.25%至4.5%的政策利率正在温和地抑制需求，足以在适当时候使通胀回归目 标。也许是这样。但再次强调，需要保持谨慎。中性利率——即既不增加也不减少需求的水平 ...

Group 1: Economic Context - The economic downturn is leading to increased difficulty in earning money and rising prices, with Beijing's housing prices increasing tenfold over the past 25 years [1] - Gold prices have reached a historical high of $3,674 per ounce, indicating a potential trend of economic instability over the next 23 years [1][6] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Recent silver prices have surged, with spot silver surpassing $42 and futures nearing $43, driven by significant inventory changes and a shortage in the London market [3] - The New York Mercantile Exchange has seen a substantial increase in silver delivery since August 26, leading to a net inflow of silver and a supply shortage in London [3] - Silver prices have risen over 43% due to a combination of high physical delivery volumes in New York and a lack of available silver in London, compounded by a nearly 40% increase in silver ETF sizes this year [3][6] Group 3: Historical Price Trends - Historical analysis shows that gold prices have surged during economic instability, with a notable increase from $35 in 1971 to $850 in 1980, reflecting gold's role as a hedge against inflation [5] - Current gold prices, adjusted for inflation, exceed the 1980 peak, indicating gold's continued importance in uncertain economic times [6] Group 4: Future Outlook for Silver - Analysts suggest that unless a severe global economic depression occurs, the likelihood of a significant drop in silver prices is minimal, with potential for price increases in the next 4 to 7 months [7] - The ongoing structural deficit in silver production and consumption, along with rising demand from industries like electric vehicles and photovoltaics, supports a bullish outlook for silver prices [7][9]

促使美联储最终转向的关键因素，是近期持续疲软的就业数据。最新统计显示，美国新增就业岗位远低于预期，导致特朗普总统直接撤换了劳工统计局局 长。多项经济指标表明，上半年美国经济增长明显放缓，就业市场面临下行风险。 分析人士认为，这次降息是美联储针对就业市场疲软采取的预防性措施，旨在防范经济衰退风险。短期来看，降息有助于提振市场信心；但长期可能加剧全 球资本流动波动，影响国际贸易格局。 美股市场对此反应分化。在降息预期和科技巨头AI投资热潮推动下，纳斯达克指数从4月的14784点一路攀升至9月的20264点。但降息决议公布后，三大股 指表现不一：道指上涨0.57%，标普微跌0.1%，纳指下跌0.33%，显示市场已提前消化降息预期。 美联储宣布降息决定，鲍威尔在特朗普施压下做出政策调整。北京时间昨晚，美联储正式宣布将联邦基金利率下调25个基点，调整后的利率区间为 4.00?.25%。这是自2024年12月以来，美联储首次采取降息措施。 值得注意的是，在本次议息会议中，由特朗普新任命的理事米莱成为唯一反对者。米莱主张更激进的降息幅度，认为应该一次性下调50个基点，才能有效刺 激经济。 此次降息决定出人意料，因为按照传统 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut has led to a short-term spike in gold prices, reaching a historical high of $3744 per ounce before a quick decline [1] - As of September 18, COMEX gold futures were fluctuating around $3670 per ounce, reflecting market adjustments to the rate cut [1] - Since August, gold prices have increased nearly 10%, with a year-to-date rise of almost 40%, driven by concerns over the U.S. economy and inflation [1] Group 2 - Historical trends suggest that gold prices typically experience small gains or remain stable in the week following a Fed rate cut, with higher average returns observed one to three months later [2] - The market is currently cautious, with indicators showing that speculative net long positions in COMEX gold have decreased, indicating a cooling sentiment among institutional investors [2] - There is a notable divergence in ETF flows, with U.S. gold ETFs seeing net inflows while Chinese gold ETFs have recorded net outflows, marking China as the only significant region reducing gold holdings [2] Group 3 - Despite short-term risks, institutions maintain a positive long-term outlook for gold, with Deutsche Bank raising its 2026 gold price forecast from $3700 to $4000 per ounce [3] - The demand from central banks, particularly from China, is expected to support gold prices, with projections of 900 tons of gold purchases next year [3] - Long-term factors such as the U.S. fiscal deficit and ongoing central bank purchases are seen as key drivers for gold price support [3]

月末收盘报 | E Frid 截至上周五,9月金价持续上行 多次刷新历史高位 2025年内黄金已累计上涨40%1 短期金价表现归因模型(GRAM)显示, 近期金价上涨的主要驱动因素包括: 智通财经APP获悉，9月18日世界黄金协会发文称，近期，美国投资者逐步接棒新兴市场买盘黄金需求结构出现阶段性调整：黄金ETF投资者最担忧滞 胀、金条金币买家紧随其后、期货短线交易者更关注利率路径。尽管目前美国实际利率黏性较强，但市场对"滞胀再起"的担忧情绪正在升温，若实际利率 出现拐点下行，其对金价的推动力或将进一步放大。 V 金价回顾 八月黄金强势上涨 金价上涨4% · 美元弱势 · 地缘政治风险高位 · 投资者对美联储的降息预期不断升温背景下 全球黄金ETF的持续 美国投资者重返黄金市场 近期,美国投资者逐步接棒新兴市场买盘, 黄金需求结构出现阶段性调整: · 黄金ETF投资者最担忧滞胀 · 金条金币买家紧随其后 · 期货短线交易者更关注利率路径 g (金价驱动分析| 滞胀预期上升,利率影响仍存 尽管目前美国实际利率黏性较强, 但市场对"滞胀再起"的担忧情绪正在升温 若实际利率出现拐点下行, 其对金价的推动力或将进一步放 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December of the previous year, while signaling a gradual easing cycle in response to labor market concerns [1][2] - The latest dot plot indicates expectations for more easing this year, with a projected additional 50 basis points cut by year-end, despite inflation remaining above the 2% target at 3% [2][3] - There is significant divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding future interest rate paths, leading to increased market uncertainty and potential volatility [4] Group 2 - The recent increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August, driven by rising housing and food costs, has raised fears of stagflation, characterized by slow growth and high inflation [3] - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% and employment growth falling short of expectations, supporting the case for multiple rate cuts [2][3] - The market's reaction to the Federal Reserve's dovish shift has been mixed, with major indices like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 experiencing volatility following the announcement [2][4]

（原标题：纽约联储前官员：关税或许只是"一次性影响"｜全球财经连线） 南方财经记者 施诗、杨雨莱 纽约联储前信贷风险主管理查德·罗伯茨(Richard Roberts)接受南方财经记者采访时表示，从数据来看， 关税已对美国通胀形成推升效应，并呈现出典型的"滞胀"特征：通胀走高而经济放缓。 不过，他也指出，关税上调所带来的冲击大概率仅是一次性的价格跳升，并不会演变为持续性的通胀螺 旋。 关税的影响仍未定论。罗伯茨补充说，判断关税是否会进一步推高通胀，可以观察市场参与者的通胀预 期。目前长期通胀预期依然偏高且小幅上行，因此关税对通胀的影响仍需密切关注。 据新华社报道，美国联邦储备委员会17日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间 下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间。这是美联储2025年第一次降息，也是继2024年三次降息后再次降 息。 市场普遍担忧，美国的关税政策可能推高通胀，这也成为影响美联储未来是否进一步降息的关键变量之 一。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, bringing it to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking its first action since December of the previous year and the first rate cut of 2025 [1][3]. Economic Conditions - The rate cut is seen as a response to deteriorating employment conditions, rising inflation pressures, and external political influences, rather than a proactive measure to stimulate the economy [3][4]. - The U.S. job market has shown signs of weakness, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000 in August and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% [3][7]. - Inflation has re-emerged, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.4% month-over-month in August, leading to an annual inflation rate of 2.9%, the highest level since January [3][7]. Fed's Dilemma - The coexistence of high inflation and weak employment has heightened the risk of stagflation, placing the Federal Reserve in a challenging position where it must balance between rising unemployment and potential runaway inflation [3][6]. - The rate cut is characterized as a "risk management decision," with Fed Chair Powell emphasizing the need for caution and suggesting that this should not be interpreted as the beginning of a sustained easing cycle [3][4]. Market Reactions - The decision revealed divisions within the Federal Reserve, as one member voted against the cut, advocating for a more aggressive 50 basis point reduction, reflecting political pressures from the White House [5]. - Financial markets reacted sharply, initially rising but then reversing course, indicating a lack of confidence in the Fed's ability to navigate the current economic complexities [5][6]. Future Outlook - Predictions suggest that U.S. CPI growth may continue to exceed the Fed's 2% target in the coming months, with ordinary American households feeling the dual pressures of job insecurity and rising grocery prices [7]. - The rate cut is viewed as insufficient to address deeper structural issues within the U.S. economy, with the challenges of stagflation remaining unresolved and potentially intensifying in the future [6][7].

Group 1 - The current gold market shows signs of a bearish trend, with spot gold trading around $3651.49 and a recent high of $3671.65, indicating a slight decline of 0.15% [1] - Ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting, the gold market exhibited overbought signals, but expectations of interest rate cuts have led to a decrease in gold prices as the dollar index rose by 0.25% [2] - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in balancing rising inflation pressures with a weak labor market, which complicates policy decisions [2][3] Group 2 - Due to poor employment data, the Federal Reserve may implement a 25 basis point rate cut in October, but future cuts may be limited by increasing inflation pressures [3] - The low interest rate environment and geopolitical uncertainties are expected to support gold's safe-haven appeal, with increasing demand for gold as a store of value [3] - The current gold market shows a weakening bullish momentum, with resistance levels shifting down to around $3680, suggesting potential short-selling opportunities if prices rebound to this level [4]