Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves to 7.396 million ounces as of the end of July, marking a month-on-month increase of 60,000 ounces and continuing a trend of nine consecutive months of accumulation, aligning with a global central bank gold buying spree [3][5] - The World Gold Council reported that global central bank gold purchases in the first half of 2024 exceeded the ten-year average by 40%, highlighting the importance of central bank demand for gold [3] ETF Inflows - As of August 6, the lowest fee gold ETF (518660) saw a net inflow of 98 million yuan over five days, with a total market size of 3.59 billion yuan and a year-to-date share growth rate of 182%, making it a preferred choice for investors [7] - The World Gold Council forecasts that global gold demand will reach 1,249 tons by the second quarter of 2025, with ETF investments contributing 170 tons, and the first half of 2024 recorded the highest ETF demand since 2020 at 397 tons [7] Changing Price Expectations - Citibank, known for its bearish stance on gold, has revised its price forecast upward, increasing the three-month target price from $3,300 to $3,500 per ounce, with a trading range of $3,300 to $3,600 per ounce [9] - The shift in Citibank's outlook is attributed to increasing risks of "stagflation" in the U.S. economy, with July non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000 and the unemployment rate rising to 4.1%, leading to heightened expectations for aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [10] Market Sentiment and Risks - Standard Chartered maintains an optimistic view, predicting gold prices could reach $3,400 per ounce in the next three months and remain at $3,500 per ounce over the next 12 months [11] - However, there are concerns about short-term upward momentum for gold prices, with risks of overheating in the market, as noted by招商证券, which suggests focusing on structural opportunities rather than broad bets on rising gold prices [12][13] - Key risk factors identified include potential policy reversals by the Federal Reserve, technical overbought conditions, competition from alternative assets like Bitcoin, and the possibility of reduced geopolitical premiums due to easing trade tensions [13]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the fifth rate cut in the current cycle, amidst a divided policy meeting [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decision - The decision to cut rates was reached after a split vote of 5 to 4, the first time since the Bank gained monetary policy decision-making authority in 1998 [3]. - Four members, including Governor Bailey, supported the 25 basis point cut, while one member initially favored a 50 basis point cut but ultimately agreed to the smaller reduction due to the voting deadlock [3]. - Four members, including the Deputy Governor and Chief Economist, opposed the rate cut, indicating a significant division within the committee [3]. Group 2: Economic Context - The decision reflects a conflict between rising inflation and a weak labor market, raising concerns about potential "stagflation" in the UK [6]. - The Bank of England noted an increase in inflation risks since May, particularly due to rising food prices, with inflation expected to reach 4% in September, surpassing the previous peak forecast of 3.7% [6]. - Despite a baseline expectation for inflation to decline, the committee warned that temporary inflation increases could exert upward pressure on wages and pricing [6]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The Bank indicated that the UK's potential GDP growth remains subdued, with ongoing domestic and geopolitical risks to economic activity [6]. - There is a consensus among committee members that consumer spending faces downward risks, while savings rates may increase as households adopt more precautionary saving behaviors [6]. - Future decisions on reducing policy tightening will depend on whether deflationary pressures continue to ease [6]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the rate decision, the British pound rose against the US dollar, and UK government bond yields experienced a slight increase [7]. - The Bank also warned of signs of pressure in the long-term bond market ahead of the annual decision on quantitative tightening in September, suggesting a potential slowdown in the pace of long-term bond sales [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent shift in the Federal Reserve's stance towards interest rate cuts, highlighting the economic challenges and pressures that have led to this potential decision [4][5][6]. Group 1: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has been caught in a dilemma between persistent inflation and a weakening economy, with core PCE inflation at 2.8% as of June [4]. - Recent employment data shows a significant drop, with only 73,000 new jobs added in July, far below the expected 110,000, indicating a cooling labor market [9]. - The unemployment rate has risen to 4.2%, raising concerns about a potential recession, with a 40% risk of stagflation predicted by Morgan Stanley [4][10]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Following signals from Federal Reserve officials supporting rate cuts, market expectations for a September rate cut have surged from 37% to over 75% [6]. - Major financial institutions predict that if unemployment rises, the Federal Reserve may cut rates by 50 basis points in September [6][11]. - The consensus among market participants is that a rate cut is imminent, with probabilities reaching as high as 94.4% for a September cut [11]. Group 3: Implications for Domestic Markets - A potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve could positively impact the A-share market, although the actual economic recovery and market sentiment will be crucial for the next upward wave [13]. - The widening interest rate differential between China and the U.S. poses risks of capital outflow, but a U.S. rate cut could provide more flexibility for China's monetary policy [14]. - If the U.S. enters a stagflation scenario, the attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries may diminish, leading to higher nominal yields required to attract investors [15].

原油日报 | 2025-08-07 特朗普对印度加征额外关税 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所9月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌81美分，收于每桶64.35美元，跌幅为1.24%；10月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌75美分，收于每桶66.89美元，跌幅为1.11%。SC原油主力合约收跌1.23%，报498元/桶。 2、 沙特将9月销往亚洲的阿拉伯轻质原油官方售价（OSP）较阿曼/迪拜均价升水3.20美元/桶，8月的升水幅度为 2.20美元/桶。将9月销往美国的阿拉伯轻质原油官方售价（OSP）较阿曼/迪拜均价升水4.2美元/桶，将9月销往西北 欧的阿拉伯轻质原油官方售价（OSP）较阿曼/迪拜均价升水3.35美元/桶。 (来源：Bloomberg） 3、\t阿联酋富查伊拉石油工业区最新数据显示，截至8月4日当周，阿联酋富查伊拉港的成品油总库存为1907.2万桶， 较一周前增加202.4万桶。其中轻质馏分油库存增加14.5万桶至714万桶，中质馏分油库存增加15.9万桶至227.6万桶， 重质残渣燃料油库存增加172万桶至965.6万桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 4、\t美国总统特朗普：与泽连斯基和普 ...

| 贵金属日评20250807:美联储官员暗示近期或重启降息,关注英国央行8月利率决议 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-07-31 | 2025-08-05 | 2025-08-06 | 收盘价 | 782. 50 | 770. 28 | 1.18 | 783. 68 | 13. 40 | | | | | 成交量 | 191341.00 | 193353.00 | -2, 012. 00 | 260701.00 | -69, 360. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持包量 | 215212. 00 | 218652. 00 | 217080.00 | -3, 440. 00 | -1,868.00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 36045.00 | 36009.00 | 35643.00 | 36.00 | 402. 00 | 上海黄金 | ...

周二，美元整体维持窄幅震荡走势，市场在等待总统川普即将公布的美联储理事提名人选。美元指数徘 徊于98.50附近，近期因疲弱的就业数据和市场对9月降息预期升温而承压。 市场关注美联储新提名人选 总统特朗普已确认，将在本周内宣布填补美联储理事会空缺的提名人选。此前，美联储理事阿德里安娜 ·库格勒（Adriana Kugler）提前辞职，将于2025年8月8日正式离任，原任期本应于2026年1月届满。 库格勒的提前离职加快了川普政府寻找"理念一致"继任者的进程。此次任命不仅涉及当前的理事空缺， 也可能对未来的美联储主席人选产生重要影响。 特朗普已明确表示不会提名财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）担任该职务，称其更希望继续担任 当前职务。目前，美联储主席职位的候选名单中还有四人，其中两位已被公开确认： ·凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh），前美联储理事，目前立场更接近川普； ·凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett），现任国家经济委员会主任，长期川普顾问。 其他潜在人选还包括现任理事克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller），以支持降息立场著称。特朗普还 曾表示，此次提名人选未来有 ...

各位朋友，昨晚的美股市场又不平静。三大指数集体收跌，道指和标普500都创下近期新低，纳指更是跌超百点。这背后到底藏着什么玄机？今天咱们就 来好好捋一捋。 先看经济数据，周二公布的ISM非制造业指数只有50.1，几乎原地踏步，这可是占美国经济70%的服务业啊！更要命的是，叠加之前疲软的就业数据，市 场突然意识到一个可怕的词——滞胀。啥叫滞胀？就是高通胀还没下去，经济却先熄火了。摩根大通直接警告，美国经济衰退风险已经"很高"。这就像开 车遇到了冰面，油门踩下去车不动，刹车还可能打滑，你说慌不慌？ 更添堵的是特朗普的关税言论。他前脚说要在24小时内大幅提高印度关税，后脚又放风要对芯片和药品开刀，尤其是药品关税可能高达250%！这可不是 开玩笑，要知道印度可是全球最大的仿制药出口国，这一刀下去，美国药店的药价怕是要坐火箭。不过印度也不是吃素的，直接回怼"毫无道理"，两国贸 易裂痕怕是要越来越深。至于芯片关税，特朗普说得很直白："我们要让芯片在美国造！"下周就要官宣新计划，台积电、三星这些大厂估计得连夜开会 了。 中概股这边也是几家欢喜几家愁。拼多多涨了0.52%，但台积电跌了2.75%，估计是被芯片关税的消息吓到了。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The British pound is facing significant challenges due to the UK's economic situation, characterized by stagnation and high inflation, leading to a potential downtrend against the US dollar in the coming months [1] Economic Conditions - The Bank of England is caught in a "stagflation" dilemma, balancing between weak economic growth and high inflation [1] - Despite inflation remaining above target levels, the central bank may have to implement excessive rate cuts due to economic weakness [1] - The tightening of fiscal policy in the UK is increasing pressure on the central bank to stimulate the economy [1] Currency Forecast - Analyst Lale Akoner predicts a downward trend for the GBP/USD exchange rate over the next 3-6 months, reflecting the divergence in monetary policies between the UK and the US [1] - The recent technical analysis shows that the GBP/USD pair has encountered resistance at the 21-day simple moving average after breaking a downward trend line [1] - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 40, indicating that recent rebounds in the currency pair are merely technical corrections [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - On August 5th, all four major stock index futures contracts for the current month rose. IF increased by 0.86%, IH by 0.8%, IC by 0.72%, and IM by 0.9%. The total trading volume of stock index futures declined on the trading day, indicating a decrease in investors' trading enthusiasm. In terms of positions, IF's total position increased by 1005 lots, IH's by 660 lots, IC's decreased by 1806 lots, and IM's decreased by 7110 lots [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Periodic Index Data Tracking - **CSI 300 and Its Futures Contracts**: The CSI 300 index closed at 4103.45, up 0.80%. Among its futures contracts, IF2508 closed at 4095, up 0.86% with a basis of -8.45; IF2509 closed at 4082, up 0.84% with a basis of -21.45; IF2512 closed at 4051, up 0.85% with a basis of -52.45; IF2603 closed at 4020.6, up 0.84% with a basis of -82.85 [1] - **SSE 50 and Its Futures Contracts**: The SSE 50 index closed at 2790.73, up 0.77%. Among its futures contracts, IH2508 closed at 2789.4, up 0.80% with a basis of -1.33; IH2509 closed at 2791, up 0.83% with a basis of 0.27; IH2512 closed at 2792.8, up 0.82% with a basis of 2.07; IH2603 closed at 2794, up 0.87% with a basis of 3.27 [1] - **CSI 500 and Its Futures Contracts**: The CSI 500 index closed at 6303.24, up 0.66%. Among its futures contracts, IC2508 closed at 6265.4, up 0.72% with a basis of -37.84; IC2509 closed at 6198.6, up 0.66% with a basis of -104.64; IC2512 closed at 6040.2, up 0.65% with a basis of -263.04; IC2603 closed at 5909.8, up 0.62% with a basis of -393.44 [1] - **CSI 1000 and Its Futures Contracts**: The CSI 1000 index closed at 6787.48, up 0.71%. Among its futures contracts, IM2508 closed at 6754.4, up 0.90% with a basis of -33.08; IM2509 closed at 6682, up 0.90% with a basis of -105.48; IM2512 closed at 6490.8, up 0.90% with a basis of -296.68; IM2603 closed at 6311, up 0.78% with a basis of -476.48 [1] 3.2 Trading Volume and Position Changes - **Trading Volume**: IF's total trading volume increased by 3421 lots, IH's by 2218 lots, IC's decreased by 11728 lots, and IM's decreased by 33934 lots [2] - **Positions**: IF's total position increased by 1005 lots, IH's by 660 lots, IC's decreased by 1806 lots, and IM's decreased by 7110 lots [2] 3.3 Top 20 Member Position Changes in Futures - **IF Contracts**: For IF2508, long positions decreased by 155 with a net change of 692, and short positions decreased by 181 with a net change of 533; for IF2509, long positions increased by 601; for IF2512, long positions decreased by 126; for IF2603, long positions increased by 372 [5] - **IH Contracts**: For IH2508, long positions decreased by 216 with a net change of 1299; for IH2509, long positions increased by 1020 and short positions increased by 507 with a net change of 1105; for IH2512, long positions increased by 495 [5] - **IC Contracts**: For IC2508, long positions decreased by 1509 and short positions decreased by 1519; for IC2509 and IC2512, long positions decreased by 1274 and 537 respectively, and short positions decreased by 985 and 202 respectively; for IC2603, long positions increased by 700 [5] - **IM Contracts**: For IM2508, long positions decreased by 1730 and short positions decreased by 2259; for IM2509, long positions decreased by 4474 with a net change of -7498, and short positions decreased by 3785 with a net change of -6783; for IM2512, long positions decreased by 1294 [5] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [6] 3.5 Important Drivers - Seven departments including the People's Bank of China jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for New - type Industrialization", strengthening medium - and long - term loan support for digital infrastructure construction such as 5G, industrial Internet, data and computing power centers, and using various financing methods to broaden the funding sources. They also put forward requirements in multiple aspects such as promoting the financing of emerging industries in the capital market, and the State Council emphasized consolidating and expanding the upward trend of the economic recovery [7][8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: The price trend is volatile, and it has not yet broken out of the volatile range. It is recommended to wait and see [10][11][12]. - Stock Index Futures: It is recommended to allocate each stock index evenly. The market remains in a state of high - risk preference, where it is easy to rise and difficult to fall [13][15][16]. - US Dollar Index: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [17][20][21]. - US Stock Index Futures: Whether the economic downward pressure intensifies still needs more data verification. Attention should be paid to the callback risk at the current level [22][23][24]. - Treasury Bond Futures: August is a favorable period for the bond market. It is recommended to look for short - term opportunities to narrow the spread between T09 - 12 contracts when the bond market sentiment warms up [25][26][27]. - Agricultural Products (Beans Meal): The internal strength and external weakness will continue. The operating center of beans meal will rise [28][30][31]. - Agricultural Products (Edible Oils): For palm oil, do not short. Consider gradually laying out long positions in the 01 contract when the price pulls back to 8800 yuan/ton. For soybean oil, it is recommended to choose the 01 contract for long positions [32][33][34]. - Agricultural Products (Cotton): The short - term downward space of Zhengzhou cotton is limited. There may be a rebound before a large number of new cotton hits the market [35][37][38]. - Agricultural Products (Corn Starch): The upward movement of the price difference between rice and flour is expected to be weak [39][40]. - Black Metals (Steam Coal): It is expected that the coal price will rise to around 670 yuan (the long - term agreement price) and fluctuate. Pay attention to the price performance after the decline in rigid demand [41][42]. - Black Metals (Iron Ore): The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is difficult to fall sharply in the short term. Pay attention to the actual implementation of production restrictions in mid - August [42][43]. - Agricultural Products (Corn): In the medium to long term, corn is expected to maintain a volatile downward trend. It is recommended to continue holding short positions in new crops [44]. - Black Metals (Rebar/HRC): The short - term market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to operate with a light position [45][46][47]. - Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke): In the short term, it will fluctuate. The 09 contract will focus on the delivery situation, and the market may return to fundamentals [48][49]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Copper): It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis. Pay attention to the internal - external reverse arbitrage strategy [50][52][53]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon): In the short term, the price may operate between 45000 - 57000 yuan/ton. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options [55][56][57]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon): Consider gradually stopping losses on short positions. Wait for an opportunity to go long after the macro - sentiment is released [58][59]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel): In the short term, pay attention to band trading opportunities. In the medium term, look for opportunities to short at high prices [60][61][62]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate): Wait and see before the risk event is resolved. Stop profiting from the 9 - 11 reverse arbitrage [63][64]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Lead): Look for opportunities to buy at low prices and manage positions well. Wait and see on the arbitrage side [65][66]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc): On a single - side basis, it is recommended to wait and see. Hold low - level speculative long positions with good position management. Pay attention to medium - term positive arbitrage opportunities [70][71]. - Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions): It will fluctuate in the short term [72][73]. - Energy Chemicals (Urea): Pay attention to the relevant meeting in Beijing tomorrow. The price has strong support in the short term [74][75][76]. - Energy Chemicals (Styrene): Pay attention to the opportunity to stop profiting from the position of narrowing the styrene - pure benzene price difference [77][78]. - Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda): The subsequent market will fluctuate [79][80]. - Energy Chemicals (Pulp): The market is expected to decline following the commodity market [81][82]. - Energy Chemicals (PVC): The market will fluctuate in the short term [83][84]. - Energy Chemicals (PX): It will adjust in the short - term [85][86]. - Energy Chemicals (PTA): It will adjust in the short - term [87][88][89]. Core Viewpoints - The US economic data is weak, with the ISM non - manufacturing PMI falling short of expectations. There are signs of stagflation, and the inflation pressure will increase after the implementation of tariffs. The market risk preference has weakened [11][17][20]. - China's seven - department policy on financial support for new - type industrialization and the free pre - school education policy have boosted the stock market, and the market has strong expectations for policies [13][14][15]. - The bond market's reaction to the rise of the stock market needs to be closely monitored. In early August, the fundamentals and capital situation are favorable for the bond market [25]. - For commodities, different varieties have different supply - demand situations. For example, the supply of some agricultural products is affected by weather and planting conditions, and the supply of some non - ferrous metals is affected by production capacity and inventory [35][50][52]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump criticized Powell for late interest - rate cuts and announced tariff increases, which raised market risk aversion. The US July ISM non - manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, showing stagflation risks. The gold price fluctuated and was waiting for a breakthrough [10][11]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Seven departments issued a guiding opinion on financial support for new - type industrialization, and the State Council announced free pre - school education. The stock market was strong, and the Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high this year. The market priced in policy expectations boldly and remained in a high - risk - preference state [13][14][15]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US July ISM non - manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, and the economic downward pressure increased. The market risk preference weakened, and the US dollar index fluctuated [17][20]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US Treasury plans to issue a record - high amount of four - week Treasury bonds. The weakening of the service PMI has increased market concerns, and the US stock market is expected to continue to pull back [22][23]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of funds. The bond market's reaction to the rise of the stock market was dull. If it becomes insensitive to the stock market rise, the bond market can be more optimistic in the short term [25]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Beans Meal) - The far - month basis trading volume of beans meal increased. The cost of imported soybeans supported the futures price, and the market was worried about the future supply of imported soybeans [28][30]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Edible Oils) - The supply of palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia may decrease by 20% in the next five years, which has increased market concerns. The export of soybean oil from China has increased, and the price has risen [32][33]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The global cotton production, consumption, and trade volume in the 2025/26 year will change little. The growth progress of US cotton is slightly slow, and the excellent rate is stable. The short - term downward space of Zhengzhou cotton is limited [35][37][38]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The spot price of corn starch is stable at a high level. The downstream demand is weak, and the loss of enterprises in North China is expected to expand [39][40]. 2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market is rising steadily. The price is expected to rise to around 670 yuan and fluctuate, and the daily consumption will reach an inflection point in mid - to late August [41][42]. 2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The Onslow project's iron ore shipment volume has increased significantly. The iron ore price will fluctuate, and the port inventory is expected to decline in the next 1 - 2 weeks [42][43]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The成交 rate of imported corn auctions has dropped significantly, and the market sentiment has turned pessimistic. In the long - term, corn is expected to decline [44]. 2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - The passenger car sales forecast has been raised, and the steel price has rebounded. The short - term market is volatile [45][46][47]. 2.9 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Luliang is oscillating. The supply of coal and coke is gradually recovering, and the market will oscillate in the short term [48][49]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Mitsubishi may cut its copper smelting business, and Codelco's mine has an accident. The market is worried about the US recession, and the copper price may be under pressure [50][51][53]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The photovoltaic power generation utilization rate in June was 95.4%. The spot price of polysilicon has increased slightly, and the price is expected to operate between 45000 - 57000 yuan/ton [54][55][57]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Yunnan and Inner Mongolia Tongwei passed the industrial silicon measurement audit. The supply of industrial silicon may increase in August, but the demand from polysilicon will also rise, and the inventory may decrease [58]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory increased. The raw material price is weakening, but the nickel price is difficult to fall deeply in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities at high prices [60][61][62]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - POSCO plans to acquire lithium assets. The demand for lithium carbonate is growing, but the supply is uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see before the risk event is resolved [63][64]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread was at a discount. Anhui's environmental protection measures affected the production of recycled lead. The short - term bottom of the lead price was established, but the downward trend has not been reversed [65][66]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc inventory decreased. Glencore and Western Mining's zinc production increased. The supply of zinc is high, and the demand is weak. The zinc price will oscillate, and there is a risk of a short - term upward movement from the external market [67][68][70]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price was 72.38 yuan/ton, down 0.33%. The trading volume did not increase significantly. The CEA price is expected to fluctuate around 73 yuan/ton [72]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The government issued agricultural disaster - prevention measures. The urea price rose slightly, and the market was affected by the India tender and export policy expectations [74][75][76]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The price of caprolactam was stable. The styrene market fluctuated slightly, and the inventory was expected to increase in August. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to stop profiting from the styrene - pure benzene spread [77][78]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong decreased slightly. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand was weak. The subsequent market will fluctuate [79][80]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp decreased. The market was affected by weak fundamentals and the end of the "anti - involution" sentiment [81][82]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC price rose. The market was affected by the rise of coking coal prices and will fluctuate in the short term [83][84]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (PX) - The PX price was slightly stronger. The demand was in the off - season, and the supply was expected to increase. The price will adjust in the short term [85][86]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price weakened, and the trading improved slightly. The market was affected by the downstream off - season and followed the crude oil price. It will adjust in the short term [87][88][89].