Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, the futures prices of oils and fats fluctuated and declined. The overall futures prices of oils and fats are likely to fluctuate and consolidate. The reduction period of palm oil and the market's expectation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy implementation support palm oil and soybean oil. However, warnings of crude oil supply surplus in 2026 and Sino - US trade tensions suppress biodiesel, putting downward pressure on palm oil and soybean oil. Domestically, soybean supply is sufficient before the end of the year, soybean oil inventory is high, and demand is shrinking, lacking the impetus for continuous upward movement. Attention should be paid to the impact of policy changes on the oils and fats market [9][32]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - This week, the futures prices of oils and fats fluctuated and declined. The Y2601 soybean oil contract fell 0.55% to close at 8,256 yuan/ton, the P2509 palm oil contract fell 1.38% to close at 9,308 yuan/ton, and the OI2509 rapeseed oil contract fell 1.99% to close at 9,861 yuan/ton [5][31]. 3.2 Important Information - **Palm Oil**: From October 1st to 15th, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 12.3% - 16.2% month - on - month, alleviating market concerns about demand. Indonesia may raise the crude palm oil export levy to 15% to meet the subsidy funds required for the future B50 program, with the specific time undetermined. Malaysian palm oil fell 1.58% [7][31]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of the 2025/26 season, China has not purchased any US soybeans but has turned to Brazil, Argentina and other countries. Despite US soybean prices being lower than those in South America, due to the trade war and China's retaliatory tariffs (up to 20%), China's purchasing decision has become a political choice. US soybeans rose 1.39% this week [7][31]. 3.3 Spot Analysis - As of October 16, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,520 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [10]. - As of October 16, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [11]. - As of October 16, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,230 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [13]. 3.4 Other Data - As of October 10, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory decreased by 23,000 tons to 1.438 million tons. On October 15, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory increased by 17,000 tons to 598,000 tons [17]. - As of October 17, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 7,188,210 tons [20]. - As of October 16, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 264 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [21]. - As of October 16, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was - 62 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [22]. - As of October 16, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 295 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [24]. 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - The content is consistent with the core view, emphasizing that the futures prices of oils and fats are likely to fluctuate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to the impact of policy changes on the market [32].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The September USDA report showed an increase in US soybean production, a decrease in global production, and an increase in US soybean inventory, with an overall neutral - weak report. China's imports from October to November exceeded expectations due to soybean purchases from Brazil and Argentina, and the supply pressure persists. The uncertainty of Sino - US tariffs may affect soybean procurement, and domestic supply may face uncertainty after November due to unconfirmed purchases from December to January. Short - term domestic spot is weak, in the seasonal demand off - season, and inventory pressure is high [5]. - For rapeseed meal, domestic supply - demand changes are small. The anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may lead to a significant decrease in imports, but there is uncertainty. Domestic demand has entered the seasonal consumption off - season, especially the weakening of aquaculture demand. It follows the weakening of soybean meal in the short term [5]. - In the palm oil market, this month's MPOB report showed that inventory accumulation exceeded expectations and increased month - on - month, with a neutral - bearish report. Indonesia proposed the B50 biodiesel plan again, but the recent weakening of crude oil may weaken the biodiesel theme. Domestic inventory is still at a relatively high accumulation stage, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking cycle due to seasonal production cuts in major producing countries at the end of the year [37]. - For soybean oil, soybean crushing remains at a high level, and soybean oil is in a continuous inventory accumulation stage. Overseas biodiesel may weaken as crude oil weakens. Argentina's tariff - free exports may increase China's direct imports of soybean oil. Demand is gradually entering the seasonal peak season, but the substitutability of other oils should be noted. Overall, it maintains a slightly surplus pattern with high inventory pressure [39]. - Regarding rapeseed oil, the current rapeseed sector lacks new themes, and domestic inventory is in a continuous de - stocking cycle. The anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may lead to a decrease in rapeseed oil supply. Attention should be paid to changes in imports from Russia and the impact of possible trade negotiations at the end of the month on future rapeseed oil purchases. It is weak in the short term but has support in the medium term due to reduced imports [40]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal - The September USDA report had a neutral - weak impact on the soybean market, with an increase in US soybean production and inventory and a decrease in global production [5]. - China's imports from October to November exceeded expectations due to purchases from Brazil and Argentina, and supply pressure persists. The uncertainty of Sino - US tariffs may affect soybean procurement, and domestic supply after November may be affected by unconfirmed purchases from December to January [5]. - Short - term domestic spot is weak, in the seasonal demand off - season, and inventory pressure is high [5]. Rapeseed Meal - Domestic supply - demand changes are small, and attention should be paid to the listing of new Canadian rapeseed [5]. - The anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may lead to a significant decrease in imports, but there is uncertainty. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed also brings uncertainty to future imports [5]. - Domestic demand has entered the seasonal consumption off - season, especially the weakening of aquaculture demand. It follows the weakening of soybean meal in the short term [5]. Palm Oil - This month's MPOB report showed that inventory accumulation exceeded expectations and increased month - on - month, with a neutral - bearish report [37]. - Indonesia proposed the B50 biodiesel plan again, but the recent weakening of crude oil may weaken the biodiesel theme [37]. - Domestic inventory is still at a relatively high accumulation stage, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking cycle due to seasonal production cuts in major producing countries at the end of the year [37]. Soybean Oil - Soybean crushing remains at a high level, and soybean oil is in a continuous inventory accumulation stage [39]. - Overseas biodiesel may weaken as crude oil weakens [39]. - Argentina's tariff - free exports may increase China's direct imports of soybean oil [39]. - Demand is gradually entering the seasonal peak season, but the substitutability of other oils should be noted. Overall, it maintains a slightly surplus pattern with high inventory pressure [39]. Rapeseed Oil - The current rapeseed sector lacks new themes, and domestic inventory is in a continuous de - stocking cycle [40]. - The anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may lead to a decrease in rapeseed oil supply. Attention should be paid to changes in imports from Russia [40]. - Attention should be paid to the impact of possible trade negotiations at the end of the month on future rapeseed oil purchases. It is weak in the short term but has support in the medium term due to reduced imports [40].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For soybeans and soybean meal, the global supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term, suggesting a strategy of selling on rebounds. In the short - term, it will likely trade in a range due to the lack of improvement in US soybean imports and the de - stocking season of soybean meal [3][4]. - For palm oil and other oils, the low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the boost in soybean oil demand from the US biodiesel policy draft, and the expected decrease in exportable volume due to the increasing biodiesel consumption in Indonesia support the price center. In the medium - term, it can be considered to buy on dips when it stabilizes, while in the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see due to the weakening commodity sentiment [5][7]. - For sugar, considering the high production in Brazil and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere in the new season, it is recommended to sell on rallies in the fourth quarter [9]. - For cotton, due to the weak fundamentals and the negative impact of the macro - environment, the upward space of cotton prices is limited in the short - term, and it may continue to trade weakly [12]. - For eggs, in the short - term, it is advisable to hold a bearish view on the near - term contracts. In the medium - term, there may be a rebound correction, and in the long - term, it is recommended to sell on rallies after the rebound [16]. - For pigs, in the fourth quarter, the supply pressure is large. It is advisable to reduce short positions on near - term contracts, and pay attention to the possibility of positive spreads when the spot price stabilizes. The far - term contracts are still considered for reverse spreads [18]. 3. Summary by Category Soybeans and Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: Overnight CBOT soybeans rose due to strong domestic demand in the US. On Thursday, the domestic soybean meal spot price was slightly stable, with the East China price at around 2910 yuan/ton. The soybean meal inventory continued to decline, and MYSTEEL estimated that the domestic soybean crushing volume of oil mills this week would be 2.1674 million tons. Brazil is expected to increase its soybean planting area this year [2][3]. - **Strategy**: The global soybean supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term, so the overall strategy is to sell on rebounds. In the short - term, it will trade in a range [4]. Oils - **Market Information**: From October 1 - 10 and 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased compared to the same period last month, and the production from October 1 - 15 increased month - on - month. India's vegetable oil imports in September slightly decreased compared to August. Indonesia plans to raise the export tax on crude palm oil from 10% to 15%. Domestic oils traded in a range on Thursday [5]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - term, consider buying on dips when it stabilizes. In the short - term, wait and see [7]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price traded in a narrow range. The spot price of sugar in various regions decreased. As of October 15, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded increased [8]. - **Strategy**: Sell on rallies in the fourth quarter [9]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price traded in a narrow range. The spot price of cotton decreased slightly. The cotton production in China is expected to increase this year, with the national output expected to reach 7.278 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [11]. - **Strategy**: The upward space of cotton prices is limited in the short - term, and it may continue to trade weakly [12]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price generally rose yesterday, with stable supply and good market sales [14]. - **Strategy**: Hold a bearish view on near - term contracts in the short - term, expect a rebound correction in the medium - term, and sell on rallies after the rebound in the long - term [16]. Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price generally continued to rise yesterday. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening in the North showed signs of decline, while the demand for large pigs in the South increased [17]. - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions on near - term contracts, and pay attention to the possibility of positive spreads when the spot price stabilizes. The far - term contracts are still considered for reverse spreads [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy (★★★)**: None - **Hold (★★☆)**: None - **Watch (★☆☆)**: Corn, Hog, Egg - **Sell (White Star)**: Soybean, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil [1] Core Views - The prices of agricultural products are affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, policies, and trade relations. Overall, the market is complex and volatile, and investors need to pay close attention to policy and fundamental changes [2][3][4] Summary by Product Soybean - Domestic soybeans rose and then fell, with all 44,835 tons of state reserve auctions today going unsold at a reserve price of 3,900 yuan/ton, and the demand for transactions has deteriorated. The market is still worried about the export demand of US soybeans, and China has not yet purchased the new US soybean crop. US soybean prices are expected to be pressured by the demand side [2] Soybean Meal - The main contract of Dalian soybean meal, M2601, slightly increased positions and declined. Currently, the arrival volume of domestic soybeans is large, and inventories are sufficient. Overall, the supply in the fourth quarter is generally not a problem. If Sino-US trade relations continue to deteriorate and the time is prolonged, the overall supply in the first quarter of next year may tighten. The soybean meal market is currently affected by domestic and foreign policies and is fluctuating weakly. It is recommended to continue to wait and see [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Weak global crude oil prices and uncertainties in Sino-US trade are pressuring risk assets, and there is a need to be cautious about the potential drag on vegetable oils. The near-term demand for palm oil in the international market is weak, but the Indonesian market gives an expectation of a further increase in the biodiesel blending ratio in the long term. The palm oil market has resilience as it enters the production reduction cycle in the fourth quarter. Domestic soybean oil is in a state of high inventory due to supply exceeding demand. In the context of the continued growth of the global biodiesel trend and the demand risks faced by US soybeans, it is expected that oils will be more resilient, and oils will be stronger than meals. In the medium and long term, it is expected that oils will still have resilience, and investors should wait for the price to find a bottom and then go long at low prices [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market fluctuated little today. Overall, the external oilseed market lacks guidance from USDA data, and there are also risks of uncertain economic and trade relations at the macro level. The Sino-Canadian agricultural product trade relationship is difficult to ease before Canada changes its tariff policy. An oil company will hold a special two-way bidding and trading session for rapeseed oil purchases and sales on October 17, involving 18,230 tons of rapeseed oil. The domestic rapeseed market is still in a state of inventory reduction, but the inventory reduction is expected to be slow. Overall, the driving force for a single side is not significant, and it is expected that the rapeseed futures price will fluctuate in the short term [6] Corn - The Dalian corn futures continued to rebound from the bottom today. The Huanghuaihai corn producing area is continuing to rush to harvest and dry the corn. The price of corn in Northeast China has declined, but the range is narrowing. The volume of corn arriving at Shandong's spot market has decreased to less than 1,000 tons, and the price is weakly stable. The opening price of corn in Northeast China has declined from a high level, but some state reserve depots in Heilongjiang have started to purchase at around 2,000 yuan/ton for 14% moisture corn, which currently has little impact on the market. The volume of new corn coming onto the market in Northeast China will continue to increase in the next two weeks. Currently, corn is still weak at the bottom, but the phased bottom is getting closer [7] Hog - Except for the November contract, other hog futures contracts hit new lows, with a total increase in positions of 15,000 lots. The spot price rebounded and exceeded 11 yuan/kg, mainly affected by factors such as second-round fattening, reluctance to sell, and increased slaughter volume. The current average spot price is in the range of 10 - 11 yuan/kg, which is at the bottom of the historical hog cycle. However, from a fundamental perspective, there are no obvious bullish factors, and the monthly output of large-scale enterprises is expected to continue to increase in October. Currently, the profits of the entire industry chain have turned negative, and the inventory of breeding sows decreased in September. In the medium term, this will support the contracts for the second half of next year [8] Egg - The spot price of eggs generally increased, with a relatively large increase in some areas. The futures generally closed down, with a total increase in positions of 20,000 lots, and the contracts for February, March, and April next year hit new lows. The short-term spot sales are relatively fast due to low prices, resulting in a short-term rebound. The egg price is at the cash flow balance or loss state, and the culling of old hens is still slow. There is a risk of further decline in the egg price in the medium term [9]

Report Title - The report is titled "Weekly Observation of Oil and Fat Market" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Palm oil prices are under pressure due to bearish MPOB data but may be supported by Indonesia's biodiesel policy. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term with domestic demand mainly for essential use and decreasing inventory [35] - Global soybean supply is relatively abundant. Domestic soybean oil inventory remains high with weak demand, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with attention on Sino - US relations [35] - Canadian rapeseed harvest increases supply pressure. Domestic rapeseed oil production is decreasing and inventory is being depleted. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian relations and rapeseed supply [36] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - On October 10, MPOB released its September supply - demand report. Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.8412 million tons (- 0.73%), exports were 1.4276 million tons (+ 7.69%), domestic consumption was 0.3335 million tons (- 33.21%), and inventory was 2.361 million tons (+ 7.20%). The report was bearish, causing palm oil prices to decline [4] - Indonesia is accelerating the implementation of the B50 biodiesel plan by 2026. If fully implemented, it will require about 20.1 billion liters of palm - based biofuel annually, raising concerns about future supply tightening [4] - US soybean harvest is ongoing. Affected by Sino - US trade frictions, China has not purchased US soybeans and instead turned to South American soybeans, increasing US soybean supply pressure. The US government shutdown since October 1 has suspended key data releases and postponed farmer subsidy policies [5] - As of the week of October 11, Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean planting rate was 11.1%, higher than the previous week's 8.2% and last year's 9.1%. The probability of a La Nina phenomenon in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific is gradually decreasing [5] 2. Fundamental Observation Supply - Palm oil: In September, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.8412 million tons, a 0.73% month - on - month decrease. From September 27 to October 10, China added 9 new palm oil purchase vessels [7] - Soybean oil: As of October 10, the actual soybean crushing volume in oil mills was 1.2893 million tons, with an operating rate of 35.99%. Soybean oil production was 0.2449 million tons, a decrease of 0.0886 million tons month - on - month [7] - Rapeseed oil: As of October 10, the rapeseed oil production of coastal oil mills was 0.0082 million tons, a decrease of 0.0025 million tons month - on - month [7] Demand - Palm oil: As of October 10, the total trading volume of 24 - degree palm oil in key national oil mills this week was 850 tons [8] - Soybean oil: From October 3 - 10, the domestic soybean oil trading volume was 0.0453 million tons, with an average daily trading volume of 0.0151 million tons [8] - Rapeseed oil: As of October 10, the rapeseed oil pick - up volume of coastal oil mills was 0.0224 million tons, an increase of 0.0072 million tons compared to before the holiday [8] Inventory - Palm oil: As of October 10, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 0.5476 million tons, a decrease of 0.0046 million tons (- 0.83%) from last week [9] - Soybean oil: As of October 10, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.2651 million tons, an increase of 0.0164 million tons from the previous period [9] - Rapeseed oil: The rapeseed oil inventory was 0.569 million tons, a decrease of 0.0177 million tons (- 3.02%) [9] Cost - Profit - As of October 10, the FOB price of 24 - degree palm oil in Malaysia was $1127.5/ton, the CIF price was $1140/ton, an increase of $41/ton from before the holiday. The import cost was 9714 yuan/ton. The hedging profit for November shipments was - 142 yuan/ton, and for December shipments was - 124 yuan/ton [10] Spot Prices - As of October 10, the spot price of Zhangjiagang's fourth - grade soybean oil was 8580 yuan/ton, an increase of 230 yuan/ton from before the holiday [12] - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9460 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton from before the holiday [12] - The spot price of Nantong's fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10370 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton from before the holiday [12] 3. Conclusion - Palm oil: MPOB data is bearish, but production is in a seasonal decline. Indonesian biodiesel policy supports demand. Domestic palm oil is mainly for essential use, with decreasing inventory and expected short - term fluctuations [35] - Soybean oil: Global soybean supply is abundant. Domestic soybean oil inventory is high with weak demand. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to Sino - US relations [35] - Rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed harvest increases supply pressure. Domestic rapeseed oil production is decreasing and inventory is being depleted. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian relations and rapeseed supply [36]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term outlook for the oil and fat market is for a volatile trend. When there are significant price corrections, investors can consider buying at low prices. The report also analyzes the fundamentals of different oils and provides corresponding trading strategies [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot prices and basis**: The closing prices of 2601 contracts for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are 8240 (down 28), 9330 (down 34), and 9959 (down 63) respectively. The basis for each oil in different regions shows various trends, with some remaining stable and some having small changes [3]. - **Monthly spreads**: For the 1 - 5 monthly spreads, soybean oil is 222 (down 14), palm oil is 108 (down 32), and rapeseed oil is 495 (up 57) [3]. - **Cross - variety spreads**: In the 01 contract, the Y - P spread is - 1090 (up 6), the OI - Y spread is 1719 (down 35), the OI - P spread is 629 (down 29), and the oil - meal ratio is 2.84 (up 0.02) [3]. - **Import profits**: The disk profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia is - 159, and the disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam is - 815 [3]. - **Weekly commercial inventories**: In the 41st week of 2025, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are 126.5, 54.8, and 57.1 million tons respectively, showing different trends compared to the previous week and the same period last year [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International market**: Indonesia may regulate crude palm oil exports to ensure domestic supply for biodiesel production. The plan to increase to B50 in the second half of 2026 may reduce global edible oil supply [5]. - **Domestic market**: - **Palm oil**: As of October 10, 2025, the national palm oil commercial inventory decreased by 0.46 million tons (0.83%) compared to the previous week. The import profit inversion has narrowed. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and long positions can be considered on significant corrections [6]. - **Soybean oil**: The soybean crushing volume and开机率 decreased last week. As of October 10, 2025, the soybean oil commercial inventory increased by 1.64 million tons (1.31%) compared to the previous week. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and long positions can be considered on significant corrections [6][9]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The rapeseed crushing volume and开机率 decreased last week. As of October 10, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory decreased by 1.2 million tons. The import profit inversion has expanded. The de - stocking trend is expected to continue, and attention should be paid to buying and policy changes [9]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral trading**: It is expected that the oil and fat market will fluctuate in the short - term. Long positions can be considered on significant corrections [11]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [11]. - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [11]. 3.4 Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the spot basis of different oils in different regions, monthly spreads, cross - variety spreads, etc., to help analyze the market trends of oils and fats [14][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn: Corn prices are oscillating weakly. During the National Day holiday, the prices in the Northeast decreased, those in North China fluctuated, and those in the sales areas were generally weak. Technically, the November contract of corn hit a new low, and the harvest pressure continues to affect the market, with the arbitrage spread of selling near and buying far narrowing [1]. - Soybean and Two - meal: CBOT soybeans closed down on Thursday. Domestic two - meal prices oscillated higher. The increase in soybean import costs during the holiday provided cost support, but the market is highly watchful due to the loose domestic soybean meal spot and the decline in pig and egg prices [1]. - Oil: BMD palm oil reached a seven - month high. Domestic oils opened higher and oscillated. It is advisable to buy oils on dips and pay attention to the MPOB report on Friday [1]. - Egg: Egg futures and spot prices are oscillating weakly. The increase in egg - laying hen inventory and the seasonal decline in post - holiday demand put pressure on prices [1]. - Pig: Pig prices are oscillating weakly. During the National Day, the prices showed a "not - prosperous in peak season" downward trend. The supply is high, and the demand is weak, and the weak situation is expected to continue [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Corn**: During the National Day, the new corn listing in the Northeast increased, and the price decreased. In North China, the price fluctuated due to weather. The supply of deep - processing enterprises was high, and the price decreased. In the sales areas, the price was weak. Technically, the November contract hit a new low, and the arbitrage spread was narrowing [1]. - **Soybean and Two - meal**: CBOT soybeans closed down. Domestic two - meal prices oscillated higher. The increase in import costs provided support, but the market was watchful due to spot supply and demand [1]. - **Oil**: BMD palm oil rose. Domestic oils opened higher and oscillated. It is recommended to buy on dips and focus on the MPOB report [1]. - **Egg**: Egg futures and spot prices declined. The increase in inventory and post - holiday demand decline led to weak prices [1]. - **Pig**: Pig futures prices continued to decline. During the National Day, the prices were "not - prosperous in peak season". The supply was high, and the demand was weak, and the weak situation is expected to continue [2]. 3.2 Market Information - Brazil's soybean, bean - meal, and corn exports and planned exports from September 28 to October 11 are provided [3]. - New Hope's pig sales volume in September 2025 increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, but the sales revenue decreased year - on - year [3]. - Russia will set a slightly higher grain export quota from February to June 2026 compared to the same period this year [4]. - Indonesia will implement the mandatory B50 biodiesel plan in the second half of 2026, which will eliminate the need for diesel imports [4]. 3.3 Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: Diagrams of contract spreads such as corn 1 - 5, corn starch 1 - 5, and others are presented [5][6][7]. - **Contract Basis**: Diagrams of contract basis such as corn, corn starch, and others are presented [13][14][17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term price trends of soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures are all expected to be oscillating on the strong side, while the medium - term trends are all expected to be oscillating [5][7][8]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating on the strong side; Reference view: oscillating on the strong side [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The suspension of the US agricultural report due to the government shutdown weakens the influence of US soybean futures on the domestic market. The domestic market has a pattern of "high inventory, weak consumption", but downstream players are optimistic about medium - term price recovery and are actively locking in costs for far - month contracts. Soybean prices are approaching the cost line, and oil mills are suffering losses and are strongly motivated to support prices [5]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **View**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating on the strong side; Reference view: oscillating on the strong side [7][6] - **Core Logic**: The US government shutdown causes a lack of key data, making it difficult to assess the US soybean oil supply - demand situation. Brazil may not increase the biodiesel blending ratio in 2026. India's soybean oil imports are expected to reach a three - year high. The international soybean oil price is oscillating on the strong side, and the domestic market is affected by both the international market and domestic soybean costs [7]. Palm Oil (P) - **View**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating on the strong side; Reference view: oscillating on the strong side [8][6] - **Core Logic**: The negative impact of falling international oil prices on biodiesel demand has weakened. The supply - demand environment in the palm oil industry has improved, with production in Southeast Asia declining from the seasonal peak and demand boosted by festivals. Indonesia plans to implement a mandatory B50 biodiesel program, which will reduce palm oil exports. The domestic palm oil futures price has risen following the international market after the holiday, and capital has returned [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively analyzes the changes in the external market during the 2025 National Day holiday, including the fluctuations of various financial and commodity indices, as well as the supply - demand situation of the international and domestic agricultural and energy industries, and international and domestic macro - economic news. 3. Summary by Related Contents External Market Fluctuations during National Day - The US dollar index rose from 97.82 to 98.84, with a 1.04% increase; the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.44%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.69% [1]. - Among agricultural products, BMD Malaysian palm oil rose 4.48%, CBOT US soybeans rose 2.90%, and ICE US cotton fell 1.19% [1]. - In the energy sector, NYMEX US fuel oil fell 1.36%, NYMEX US crude oil fell 0.21%, and ICE Brent fell 0.11% [1]. - Among non - ferrous metals, COMEX gold rose 4.45%, COMEX silver rose 3.42%, and LME copper rose 3.93% [1]. International Supply - Demand Situation - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's September palm oil inventory is expected to decline by 2.5% compared to August, production is expected to decline by 3.3%, and exports are expected to increase by 7.7%. Indonesia's 2025/26 palm oil production is expected to decline by 1%, and Malaysia's is expected to decline by 1%. Global palm oil imports are expected to increase by 4.6% [2][3]. - **Soybeans**: S&P Global lowered the US soybean yield forecast. As of September 1, 2025, the US old - crop soybean inventory was 3.16 billion bushels. Brazilian soybean planting progress is faster than in previous years, and the 2025/26 production is expected to increase. Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 4850 tons, and corn production is expected to be 5800 tons [4][5][7]. - **Other Crops**: Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to be 2002.8 tons, and exports are expected to be 700 tons. Ukraine has approved new export documents for tax - exempt rapeseed and soybean exports [13][14]. Domestic Supply - Demand Situation - On September 30, the total trading volume of domestic edible oils decreased by 71% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the oil mill operating rate dropped by 6.41%. The national soybean oil port inventory decreased by 0.7 tons [16]. International Macro - news - The US ADP employment in September decreased by 32,000, the Challenger job - cuts in September were 54,064, and the ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50. The US government shutdown continued, and the release of some economic data was postponed [18][19]. - OPEC + will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The eurozone's October Sentix investor confidence index was - 5.4 [19]. Domestic Macro - news - On September 30, the US dollar/renminbi exchange rate was adjusted downwards (the renminbi appreciated). The central bank conducted 242.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 33.9 billion yuan. On October 9, the central bank will conduct 1.1 trillion yuan of 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operations [22]. - In September, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage point [22].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for oilseeds showed mixed results, with palm oil futures reaching a three-week high, up nearly 4% to 9452.00 CNY/ton [1] - Indonesia plans to implement a mandatory B50 biodiesel policy by 2026 to reduce gasoline imports, currently enforcing a B40 biodiesel plan [1] - Malaysia's palm oil production for September is estimated to decrease by 2.35%, with total production expected to be 1.81 million tons [1] Group 2 - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association reported a potential 2.5% decrease in palm oil inventory for September compared to August, estimated at 2.15 million tons [1] - Positive factors for palm oil prices include reduced production in major producing countries and the rectification of illegal plantations in Indonesia, while domestic consumption recovery and India's lower-than-expected stockpiling may suppress price rebounds [2] - Short-term expectations indicate a strong fluctuation in palm oil prices, with attention on the upcoming supply and demand data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board [2]