Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The price of palm oil is expected to experience an oscillating rebound as macro - factors weaken, while the price of soybean oil lacks real - world drivers due to fluctuating tariff sentiment [1]. - HLIB maintains its price forecasts for crude palm oil in 2025 - 2026 at 4,000 and 3,800 ringgit per ton respectively, and predicts that the strong price trend will fade once the supply outlook recovers [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of palm oil futures (day session) was 8,748 yuan/ton with a - 0.07% change, and (night session) 8,760 yuan/ton with a 0.14% change; soybean oil futures (day session) was 7,712 yuan/ton with a 0.50% change, and (night session) 7,698 yuan/ton with a - 0.18% change; rapeseed oil futures (day session) was 9,310 yuan/ton with a 0.49% change, and (night session) 9,370 yuan/ton with a 0.64% change. The closing price of Malaysian palm oil futures was 4,214 ringgit/ton with a 0.33% change, and CBOT soybean oil futures was 47.76 cents/pound with a 2.23% change [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of palm oil futures decreased by 91,887 lots to 549,226 lots, and open interest decreased by 29,390 lots to 172,008 lots; for soybean oil futures, trading volume decreased by 38,888 lots to 80,409 lots, and open interest decreased by 14,032 lots to 154,135 lots; for rapeseed oil futures, trading volume decreased by 64,281 lots to 313,474 lots, and open interest decreased by 13,444 lots to 118,307 lots [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,250 yuan/ton with no change; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,100 yuan/ton with a 30 - yuan increase; the spot price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,250 yuan/ton with a 90 - yuan decrease; the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,065 dollars/ton with no change [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 502 yuan/ton, soybean oil in Guangdong was 388 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi was - 60 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 562 yuan/ton (previous two - day: 511 yuan/ton); the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 1,068 yuan/ton (previous two - day: - 1,108 yuan/ton); the 5 - 9 spread of palm oil was 552 yuan/ton (previous two - day: 568 yuan/ton); the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 32 yuan/ton (previous two - day: 28 yuan/ton); the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was - 44 yuan/ton (previous two - day: - 50 yuan/ton) [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SGS estimates that Malaysia's palm oil exports from April 1 - 10, 2025 were 211,252 tons, a 6.63% decrease compared to the same period last month [4]. - As of the week ending April 8, about 22% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, down from 33% last week and the same as last year's 22% [4]. - A private US exporter reported the sale of 121,000 tons of soybeans to an unknown destination, with 55,000 tons for delivery in the 2024/2025 season and 66,000 tons for 2025/2026 [4]. - Analysts expect that the US soybean crush volume in March 2025 will reach a record high for the third month of the year, with an average estimate of 197.602 million bushels, an 11.1% increase from February and a 0.6% increase from March 2024. The estimated soybean oil inventory at the end of March is expected to reach 1.617 billion pounds, a 7.6% increase from the end of February but a 12.7% decrease from the same period last year [5]. - Brazil's 2024/2025 soybean harvest is 89.09% complete, higher than the 85.13% of the same period last year and the five - year average of 88.9%. Brazil's biodiesel production surge has tightened soybean oil export supply, and in the 2024/2025 market year, soybean oil production is expected to reach a record 1.2 million tons, while exports are expected to be 130,000 tons, almost the same as last year [6]. - Canada's rapeseed exports in the week ending April 6 increased by 32.9% to 309,700 tons compared to the previous week. From August 1, 2024, to April 6, 2025, exports were 7.1756 million tons, a 76.2% increase compared to the same period last year. As of April 6, the commercial inventory of rapeseed was 1.204 million tons [7]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [8].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Green Plains reported a net loss of $54.9 million or $0.86 per share for Q4 2024, compared to a net income of $7.2 million or $0.12 per share in the same period of 2023 [8][17] - Consolidated revenues for Q4 were $584 million, approximately 18% lower than the same period a year ago, primarily due to lower market prices for ethanol, dry distillers grains, and renewable corn oil [16] - EBITDA for Q4 was negative $18.9 million, down from $44.7 million in the prior year period [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company executed $30 million of cost improvements, with a target of $50 million in annualized cost savings identified [5][6] - The Fairmont facility, with a capacity of 120 million gallons, was shut down due to market conditions and flooding issues, impacting overall production [7] - Operating rates at plants improved, achieving 92% in Q4, with expectations to continue operating in the mid-90s range [11][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Strong exports are anticipated, with a record of approximately 1.9 billion gallons expected for the year, and projections for 2025 to exceed that [9] - The U.S. corn market remains tight, with planting intentions closely monitored to avoid higher corn prices in the future [10] - The protein complex is under pressure from oversupply due to expanded domestic soy crushing capacity, but there are bright spots in aquaculture sales [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is transitioning from innovation to commercialization, focusing on cost rationalization and margin expansion [5][6] - Carbon capture initiatives are on track, with expectations to begin capturing biogenic CO2 in the second half of the year [13][21] - The company believes the value of its Nebraska assets is not reflected in its current share price, with carbon earnings expected to transform its earnings power [14][15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed disappointment over negative EBITDA for Q4 but noted a positive EBITDA of $44.7 million for the full year [8][17] - The management is optimistic about the potential for improved margins and profitability as the market conditions evolve and carbon capture initiatives are implemented [21][24] - The company is focused on reducing SG&A costs and simplifying its structure to enhance operational efficiency [31] Other Important Information - The company reached a settlement with the IRS regarding R&D tax credits, impacting its tax position for the year [18] - Capital expenditures for Q4 were allocated across various initiatives, with a total of $95 million incurred year-to-date [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Cost initiatives and profitability impact - Management indicated that the $50 million cost savings would enhance overall profitability, transitioning focus from innovation to commercialization [35][36] Question: Aquaculture market penetration - Management confirmed successful sales in aquaculture, with significant quantities sold and a focus on expanding market presence [38][39] Question: Carbon capture project timeline - Management expects the carbon capture project to be operational by late Q3 or early Q4, with construction underway [42][43] Question: Sugar market development - Management is optimistic about customer interest in sugar products, awaiting food safety certification to ramp up production [49][50] Question: Corn oil pricing expectations - Management anticipates corn oil to trade at a premium to soybean oil, reflecting market conditions [60][61] Question: 45Z tax credit monetization - Management expressed confidence in finding buyers for tax credits and offsets, with a robust market for these products [81][82]