1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the domestic futures market's soybean oil prices are expected to remain weak initially and then strengthen in the second quarter. The price of US soybean oil may rise due to biofuel policies, which could drive up the domestic palm oil price, and the domestic soybean - palm oil price spread is expected to remain inverted until the second half of Q2 [4]. - The international soybean oil market's raw material supply in Q2 and Q3 mainly comes from Brazilian soybeans, so the impact of US soybeans on domestic supply will be felt in Q4 and Q1 of 2026. The shift in the global soybean trade flow may increase China's soybean import costs. The upward trend in US soybean oil's domestic demand will offset the impact of the decline in US soybean exports, supporting the international oil price [59]. - In the domestic market, with the arrival of a large number of Brazilian soybeans starting in April, the domestic soybean supply will be sufficient from Q2 to Q3. The soybean oil supply will remain abundant even after the increase in soybean crushing, and the demand has not been significantly boosted. The soybean - palm oil spot price spread is expected to remain inverted until the arrival of more palm oil reduces its price [59]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾 (Market Review) - In Q1, the domestic and international soybean oil markets showed different trends. Domestically, soybean oil was relatively firm compared to palm oil at the beginning but was the weakest among the three major oils later due to the accelerated Brazilian soybean harvest and high expected arrivals in Q2. Internationally, US soybean oil prices were weak initially due to pessimistic biofuel policy expectations and then rebounded due to policy changes [7]. 3.2国际市场 (International Market) 3.2.1大豆产量 (Soybean Production) - As of March 29, Brazil's soybean harvest progress reached 81.4%, better than the same period last year and the five - year average. The 2024/25 production is expected to be 167 million tons, a 13.3% year - on - year increase [11]. - The USDA's March planting intention report shows that US farmers plan to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans in 2025/26, less than in 2024. The Q1 2025 soybean inventory in the US is at the highest level in the past three years [16]. 3.2.2大豆压榨 (Soybean Crushing) - Due to the expiration of the BTC biodiesel tax credit subsidy and the non - implementation of the new 45Z subsidy, US biodiesel production declined, and the soybean oil price dropped, leading to a low soybean crushing profit in Q1 [23]. 3.2.3豆油出口 (Soybean Oil Exports) - Due to the long - term inversion of the international soybean - palm oil price spread, the exports of North and South American soybean oil improved significantly. As of March 27, US soybean oil exports reached 660,000 tons this year, compared with only 35,000 tons in the same period last year. Argentina's soybean oil exports have also been at a high level since Q4 last year, mainly exported to India [31]. 3.2.4生柴 (Biodiesel) - After Trump took office, the RINs price dropped, and biodiesel producers faced losses. However, with the policy change, the RINs price rose, and biodiesel production became profitable, stabilizing the soybean oil price [36]. - Due to pessimistic policy expectations and low blending profits, the use of soybean oil in biodiesel decreased, and its proportion was lower than other raw materials for the first time. The production of BD and RD in January 2025 also decreased significantly [40]. - The market expects the EPA to raise the 2026 biodiesel RVO obligation to 55 - 575 million gallons, creating a raw material demand increase of about 8 - 9 million tons. However, US tariff policies will lead to a raw material shortage of about 6 million tons [43]. 3.2.5生物柴油 (Biodiesel) - The 45Z subsidy model mainly targets domestic producers. In extreme cases, about 2 - 3 million tons of imported canola oil and about 2 - 3 million tons of UCO may be replaced. The new policy and tariffs will create a raw material shortage of 9 - 10 million tons. If all are replaced by soybean oil, an additional 50 million tons of soybean crushing is needed, but the US soybean crushing capacity is insufficient [47]. 3.3国内市场 (Domestic Market) 3.3.1近端到港偏低，远月到港充足 (Low Immediate Arrivals, Sufficient Distant - Month Arrivals) - Due to low arrivals in Q1, the domestic soybean inventory has declined and is approaching a turning point. With the good harvest of Brazilian soybeans, the arrivals from April to May are expected to be earlier and larger, and the supply from Q2 to Q3 is expected to be sufficient [50]. 3.3.2逐步去库，但供应仍宽松 (Gradual De - stocking, but Supply Remains Loose) - The three major domestic oils are in the process of de - stocking. Palm oil inventory is relatively tight, rapeseed oil is relatively loose, and soybean oil inventory is around the historical average. With the arrival of a large number of soybeans and the increase in the crushing rate, soybean oil inventory is expected to start increasing at the end of April, but the process may be slow [53]. 3.3.3对棕榈油替代明显，但消费总量一般 (Obvious Substitution for Palm Oil, but General Consumption Volume) - Soybean oil has significantly substituted palm oil, but due to limited population growth and domestic consumption downgrade, the total vegetable oil consumption has little increase. In Q2, soybean oil consumption is expected to improve, and the substitution for palm oil in the catering sector will be more obvious, with the apparent demand increasing by about 100,000 - 200,000 tons per month compared to last year [57]. 3.4二季度观点汇总 (Summary of Second - Quarter Views) 3.4.1国际市场 (International Market) - Raw material side: In Q2 and Q3, the supply mainly comes from Brazilian soybeans, so the impact of US soybeans on domestic supply will be felt in Q4 and Q1 of 2026. The change in the global soybean trade flow may increase China's soybean import costs [59]. - Demand side: The export demand for US soybean oil will be affected, but the increase in domestic demand due to policy changes will offset the impact of the decline in exports, supporting the international oil price [59]. 3.4.2国内市场 (Domestic Market) - Raw material side: Starting from April, the arrival of a large number of Brazilian soybeans will make the domestic soybean supply sufficient from Q2 to Q3. The supply shortage caused by US soybeans may appear after the supply center shifts from Brazil to the US, which will be more obvious in the 01 contract [59]. - Demand side: The domestic soybean oil inventory is not tight, and the supply will remain abundant after the increase in soybean crushing. The demand has not been significantly boosted, and the soybean - palm oil spot price spread is expected to remain inverted until the arrival of more palm oil reduces its price [59]. 3.4.3策略建议 (Strategy Recommendations) - It is expected that the price spread of the 09 contract of soybean - palm oil will remain inverted in the second quarter and may approach parity in the third quarter. It is recommended to implement strategies to widen the spread of the 09 and 01 contracts of soybean - palm oil and the 9 - 1 reverse spread strategy. - For single - side trading, pay attention to the support of palm oil prices. In the short - term, it is recommended to short at high prices, and long positions in the 01 contract can be considered at the end of the second quarter.

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core View of the Report The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures, all of which are considered to be oscillating and strengthening. It also elaborates on the core logic behind these views for each commodity [6][7][8]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: Intraday view is oscillating and strengthening, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating and strengthening [6]. - **Core Logic**: The US Department of Agriculture's oilseed crushing monthly report showed that the US soybean crushing volume in February was slightly higher than market expectations, boosting US soybean futures prices. Domestic soybean futures prices follow the upward trend. However, there is an expectation of a weaker domestic supply - demand environment in the future, and risks such as the weakening of the far - month basis and inventory reconstruction should be watched out for. The upward space of short - term soybean meal futures prices is limited [6]. 2. Soybean Oil (Y) - **View**: Intraday view is oscillating and strengthening, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating and strengthening [8]. - **Core Logic**: The US government plans to raise the biofuel blending target, which drives the soybean oil market sentiment. The US Department of Agriculture's report shows that the US soybean oil inventory at the end of February decreased more than expected year - on - year, supporting the futures prices. Domestic soybean oil futures prices are mainly affected by raw material soybean costs and the linkage with US soybean oil futures prices [8]. 3. Palm Oil (P) - **View**: Intraday view is oscillating and strengthening, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating and strengthening [9]. - **Core Logic**: Currently, there is no obvious driver for the three major oil futures, and capital attention has declined. The recent improvement in palm oil exports has boosted its futures prices. With the continuous decline of domestic palm oil inventory, trading sentiment has recovered. However, short - term high - frequency data only has a short - term impact on prices, and short - term trading is advisable [9].

以下文章来源于CFC商品策略研究 ，作者田亚雄 刘昊 CFC商品策略研究 . 好的研报应该提供打破经验，观念，陈规或惯例的视角，提供自我逻辑审查的意识自觉。阅读体验应该是一次历险，也许是一次漂流，它并不把你带到任 何一个安全的港湾去，但更像是提供一种类似在悬崖边临渊回眸，另做选择的逻辑启发，或自我反讽的邀请。 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 田亚雄、刘昊 来源 | 中信建投期货研究发展部 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路研究员 近期市场聚焦在美豆油上，半个月近10%的上涨幅度的驱动来自EPA极有可能会进一步大幅提高生物柴油掺混要求，后续掺混目标范围来 到47.5-55亿加仑。相较于此前预期的33.5亿加仑而言，暗示未来可能有520-800万吨的植物油需求增量。这一量级的增长对于植物油价格 无疑是显著利多，毕竟印尼从B30到B40的实施所引致的百万吨量级增量就足以驱动一轮植物油的快速反弹。 通过提高生物燃料配额，既能安抚农业州选民，又能为石油集团的可再生能源投资提供政策确定性，同时规避国际竞争风险。当前美国中 西部农业州（如爱荷华州、内布拉斯加州）是生物乙醇和生物柴油的重要生产基地，也是特朗普的共和党票仓， ...