Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The protein meal market showed a strong and volatile trend at night. The soybean harvest rate in Brazil as of January 17 was 2.3%, higher than last week's 0.6% and last year's 1.2%, but lower than the five - year average of 3.2%. Positive talks between China and the US boosted the market's expectations for US soybean exports, and the upcoming biofuel policy also improved demand expectations, leading to a rebound in US soybean futures prices. However, high domestic soybean meal inventories and the expectation of a bumper harvest in South American soybeans will continue to put pressure on prices [3]. - The oil market adjusted in a volatile manner at night. Malaysia's strong palm oil exports in January, a decline in production month - on - month, and a reduction in tariffs supported palm oil prices. Indonesia's revocation of the licenses of 28 palm oil plantation companies and the current production - reducing season raised concerns about production, making palm oil prices trend strongly recently. The upcoming US biofuel policy details are also expected to support soybean oil. In the short term, the oil market is expected to fluctuate strongly [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 8084, 8944, 9002, 2768, 2396, and 8844 respectively. The price changes were 40, 112, 55, 43, 19, and 26, with corresponding percentage changes of 0.50%, 1.27%, - 3.15%, 1.58%, 0.80%, and 0.29% [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: There were detailed data on spreads and ratios such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, OI9 - 1, etc., with comparisons between the current values and previous values [2]. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4113 (ringgit/ton), 1064.00 (cents/bushel), 53.74 (cents/pound), and 296.20 (dollars/ton) respectively. The price changes were 48.0, - 1.0, - 0.3, and 4.7, with corresponding percentage changes of 1.18%, - 0.09%, - 0.57%, and 1.61% [2]. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: There were data on the spot prices of various oils, meals, and peanuts in different domestic regions, along with their percentage changes and spot basis [2]. - **Spreads**: There were also data on spot spreads such as the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, etc., with comparisons between the current values and previous values [2]. Import and Crushing Profits - There were data on the import and crushing profits of near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and near - month Canadian rapeseeds, with comparisons between the current values and previous values [2]. Warehouse Receipts - There were data on the warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts, with comparisons between the current values and previous values [2]. Industry Information - A US private exporter reported the sale of 192,350 tons of soybeans to an unknown destination for delivery in the 2025/2026 marketing year. The Brazilian Soybean Crushers Association (ABIOVE) expected Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/2026 season to reach 177.124 million tons, up from 171.481 million tons in the previous season, and its soybean exports in 2026 to reach 111.5 million tons, up from 108.2 million tons in 2025 [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - **Short-term Rebound**: Soybean meal and soybean oil are expected to have short-term rebounds due to factors like inventory changes and positive market sentiments [1][3]. - **Stop Falling and Rebound**: Rapeseed meal is likely to stop falling and rebound, but a cautious view is recommended due to long - term supply changes [1][6]. - **Short - term Rebound**: Palm oil is expected to have a short - term rebound, yet chasing high prices should be done with caution [1][8]. - **Short - term Oscillation**: Rapeseed oil is predicted to have short - term oscillations, with its decline limited by the high basis [1]. - **Oscillatory Adjustment**: Cotton is expected to have oscillatory adjustments in the short - term, with potential for recovery in the long - term [1][12]. - **Short - term Rebound**: Jujube may experience a short - term rebound as high inventory reduction accelerates, but overall it is under pressure [1][14]. - **Beware of Callback**: For live pigs, there is a need to beware of callback pressure in both the near - term and far - term contracts [1][17]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Inventory and Import**: This week, the latest soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased month - on - month, and the estimated imports in February are lower compared to the same period last year, indicating an expected de - stocking phase [1][3]. - **Market Sentiment and Fundamentals**: Positive talks between Chinese and US officials boosted market confidence in US soybean exports. Slow start of South American soybean harvest (Brazil's harvest rate is 2.3%, lower than the five - year average) and drought in some parts of Argentina provided fundamental support for prices [1][3]. - **Price Movement**: Soybean meal rebounded significantly from its low yesterday. Attention should be paid to the weather in South America in the future [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Import and Supply**: There was zero rapeseed import in January, and the average monthly import in February and March is 120,000 tons, much lower than the same period last year. The spot inventory pressure of rapeseed meal has been alleviated, but the supply is tight, and the spot trading is light during the off - season [1][6]. - **Long - term Supply**: Although the January USDA report reduced the global rapeseed production and ending stocks, the easing of China - Canada trade relations and the reduction of the comprehensive import tariff of Canadian rapeseed to 15% will significantly ease the domestic import supply in the long - term [1][6]. - **Price Outlook**: A cautious view is recommended for the bullish outlook on rapeseed meal [1][6]. Palm Oil - **Production and Export**: The latest data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 20 days of this month decreased significantly month - on - month, which is positive for market sentiment. Although the export data of Malaysian palm oil increased month - on - month, there is still a risk of inventory accumulation in January [1][8]. - **Price Movement**: Palm oil continued to close higher yesterday. However, due to the recent high rebound, chasing high prices should be done with caution. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking situation of Malaysian palm oil in January [1][8]. Cotton - **International Situation**: The January USDA data is slightly bullish for the ICE market. The decline of the US dollar index and the strength of the external bulk commodities provide support for the cotton market. The short - term US cotton market is expected to be strong [1][10][12]. - **Domestic Situation**: Domestic new cotton processing is basically completed, and the sales progress has slowed down. The raw material inventory pressure has further increased. The import side is gradually realizing the previous internal - external price difference pressure. On the demand side, domestic consumption is in the off - season, and textile mills are gradually on holiday at the end of the year, with weakening support. The market is also affected by the poor retail performance in December [1][11][12]. - **Price Outlook**: The short - term market is expected to adjust weakly. In the long - term, considering the reduction in planting and the expectation of replenishment at home and abroad, attention should be paid to the recovery performance after the release of negative factors [1][12]. Jujube - **Supply and Demand**: The acquisition in the production areas is over, and the market supply has increased. At the same time, it has entered the winter consumption peak season. The high inventory reduction has accelerated, which may promote a short - term rebound [1][14]. - **Price Outlook**: The spot market is flat. With the peak of new product listing and the consumption peak season, the futures market fluctuates more. In the context of a loose supply - demand pattern, the overall trend is expected to be under pressure, but short - term rebound opportunities can be noted in the context of the cooling peak season [1][14]. Live Pigs - **Short - term Situation**: As of now, the slaughter progress in the first 10 days of January is relatively slow. As the time approaches the end of January, the pre - festival slaughter pressure increases. The recent spot price rebound has increased the willingness of group farms to slaughter. The current high standard - fat price difference has driven the entry of second - fattening, and the contradiction in the spot market may be postponed [1][16]. - **Medium - term Situation**: The number of new - born piglets in steel - linked sample enterprises in December increased month - on - month, and the feed efficiency of piglets continued to increase in December. The supply pressure in the first half of 2026 is difficult to improve significantly [16]. - **Long - term Situation**: The inventory of breeding sows decreased in the fourth quarter, but the de - stocking speed was slow, and the far - month contracts face certain hedging pressure. The industry has been in a loss situation for more than 17 weeks, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of losses [16][17]. - **Price Outlook**: As the end of January approaches, the slaughter pressure increases, and the price support becomes more difficult. The demand side has declined due to the end of the stocking market. The near - month contracts may face increasing pressure, and the far - month contracts are also under pressure in the short - term [1][17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The near - month soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the far - month contract has strengthened slightly due to the accelerated implementation of the US biofuel policy. The US biofuel policy may weaken the surplus of US soybeans to some extent but cannot provide long - term upward drive. For soybean meal, it is recommended that those with large spot positions consider using price fluctuations to wash the basis, and there is no trend for futures speculation [1]. - The biofuel policy is about to be clarified, boosting market sentiment. The market is cautiously optimistic about the final regulations, believing they will have a positive impact on the demand for raw materials for biodiesel production, including soybean oil [1]. - The exports of Malaysian palm oil decreased, but due to the entry into the off - season of production, it is expected that the inventory reduction will continue. It is still recommended to gradually buy on dips. The rapeseed oil has strong support below, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the US biofuel policy in early March, which may bring additional upward drive to the oil and fat sector [2]. Summary by Related Content Soybean Meal - The US Treasury Secretary confirmed that China fulfilled the commitment to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans, but only about 5% of the soybeans have been shipped to China [1]. - The near - month supply has a certain gap, but the probability of an extreme shortage situation like last year is relatively small. The spot rhythm around the Spring Festival is still unclear [1]. Oils and Fats - StoneX: The market expects the US Environmental Protection Agency to soon issue final regulations on biofuels, including the small refinery exemption policy [1]. - According to SGS data, the estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 20 was 658,379 tons, a 2.70% decrease from the same period last month [2]. - Palm oil buying has weakened due to rising prices, and the decline in Malaysian palm oil export data is due to this. However, due to the entry into the production off - season, inventory reduction is expected to continue [2]. - Although the purchase of Canadian rapeseed has started, the crushing cost under the current 15% tariff is still high, which is not enough to cause the futures price to fall, and there is strong support below [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of oilseeds such as soybeans and rapeseeds is relatively abundant. Palm oil has a high annual output and is about to enter the production - reduction season with a de - stocking trend. The market is currently intertwined with multiple long and short factors, but positive expectations and a warming macro - atmosphere are driving the continuous rebound of the oil market. It is recommended to consider staged buy - hedging after price corrections and a long - palm - oil and short - rapeseed - oil arbitrage strategy [2][5] - For protein meal, the international soybean supply is expected to increase, and the US soybean is expected to fluctuate. In the domestic market, the price of soybean meal is expected to remain firm before the Spring Festival, but there is a need to be vigilant against the weakening of futures prices due to the repair of discounts under high - profit conditions. Rapeseed meal is expected to be weaker than soybean meal and fluctuate weakly [7] - The corn market is in a state of game between the policy ceiling and the demand floor, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. The market is affected by supply pressure, downstream demand, and policy grain auctions [10] - The supply of live pigs is abundant, and the price continues to decline. In the short term, there is a risk of concentrated inventory release before the Spring Festival, and the fundamentals will remain weak after the festival. It is expected that the pig cycle will gradually bottom out and pick up in the second half of 2026 [12][13] - The natural rubber market has effective short - term bottom support, and the market rebounds slightly. In the medium term, the idea of buying on dips is maintained, and the short - term market may return to a wide - range fluctuation [15] - The synthetic rubber market is driven by the sector's performance and the market rebounds. In the short term, there is pressure above and may require adjustment, while in the medium term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [17] - The cotton price is in an adjustment period in the short term, but in the long - term, based on the expected tight balance sheet and the reduction of cotton - planting area in Xinjiang, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly and it is recommended to buy on dips [18] - The sugar price continues to adjust downward. Due to the expected oversupply in the new sugar - making season globally, the sugar price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and a strategy of shorting on rebounds is maintained [18] - The pulp futures continue to move sideways, and the spot price slowly declines. Due to seasonal weakening of demand and abundant liquidity of softwood pulp, the pulp futures are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [19] - The double - offset paper market maintains a low - level fluctuation. With the end of publishing orders and weak social demand, the double - offset paper is expected to fluctuate weakly [21] - The log market rebounds from a low valuation. After the negative factors in the delivery aspect are digested and the spot price rises, the log market is expected to operate within a range in the short term [22][23] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Palm oil increases in position and rises, leading the oil market [1][5] - **Logic**: Palm oil is in the production - reduction stage, with good export performance. From January 1 - 20, the production in Malaysia decreased by 16.06% month - on - month, and the export volume from January 1 - 20 increased by 8.6% - 11.4% month - on - month. The US soybean oil is affected by arbitrage unlocking in the short term, but the upcoming clarification of US biofuel policies and rising international oil prices limit its decline. The supply of rapeseed oil is expected to become more abundant in the future, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1][5] - **Outlook**: Soybean oil fluctuates, palm oil fluctuates, and rapeseed oil fluctuates weakly. It is recommended to consider staged buy - hedging after price corrections and a long - palm - oil and short - rapeseed - oil arbitrage strategy [2][5] 3.2. Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The spot price drops slightly, and the market fluctuates at a low level [7] - **Logic**: Internationally, the Argentine soybean sowing is nearly complete, and the US soybean demand and压榨 performance are strong. China has purchased a large amount of US soybeans, and the overseas soybean supply is expected to increase. Domestically, the spot price of soybean meal drops slightly, and the low - priced rapeseed meal attracts downstream purchases, supporting the market [7] - **Outlook**: The US soybean, Dalian soybean meal, and rapeseed meal all fluctuate. Rapeseed meal is expected to be weaker than soybean meal and fluctuate weakly [7] 3.3. Corn and Starch - **Viewpoint**: The game between the policy ceiling and the demand floor continues, and the market fluctuates [10] - **Logic**: The supply in the Northeast is tight, while the supply in North China increases after the weather improves. The upstream is reluctant to sell, and the downstream feed enterprises maintain a stable inventory, while the deep - processing enterprises have low inventory and need to stock up before the Spring Festival. Policy grain auctions will gradually stabilize prices [10] - **Outlook**: The market is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the release of supply pressure and downstream stocking [10][11] 3.4. Live Pigs - **Viewpoint**: The supply is abundant, and the price continues to decline [11] - **Logic**: In the short term, the early - January slaughter progress is slow, and there may be early sales at the end of January. In the medium term, the supply will remain excessive until April 2026. In the long term, the sow capacity began to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the supply pressure is expected to ease after May 2026. The demand is slightly increasing, and the inventory is slightly accumulating [12] - **Outlook**: The market fluctuates weakly. There is a risk of concentrated inventory release before the Spring Festival, and the fundamentals will remain weak after the festival. It is recommended to consider short - hedging opportunities for the industry in the first half of the year. The pig cycle is expected to bottom out in the second half of 2026 [13] 3.5. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The short - term bottom support is effective, and the market rebounds slightly [15] - **Logic**: Affected by the warming of the commodity market and the strong performance of synthetic rubber, the natural rubber price rebounds. However, the fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the price increase is mainly driven by macro factors. The overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand is weak after the price rise [15] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have limited variables, and the market is not expected to break through the previous high unilaterally. The medium - term idea of buying on dips is maintained, and the short - term market may return to a wide - range fluctuation [15] 3.6. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Driven by the sector's performance, the market rebounds and rises [16][17] - **Logic**: The overall risk preference of the commodity market rebounds, and some chemical products rise due to equipment problems. The raw material supply is tight, and the mid - term bullish logic remains unchanged. The price of butadiene has been rising recently [17] - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of butadiene is expected to improve, but there is short - term pressure. In the medium term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [17] 3.7. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The cotton price continues to adjust, and the long - term logic remains unchanged [18] - **Logic**: In the short term, after the positive policy expectations are realized, the cotton price enters an adjustment period due to factors such as reduced positions and potential increases in imports. In the long term, the cotton balance sheet is expected to be tight, and the planting area in Xinjiang is expected to decrease, supporting the price. The current consumption is good, and the downstream is stocking up before the Spring Festival [18] - **Outlook**: The market fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips during the adjustment period [18] 3.8. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sugar price continues to adjust downward [18] - **Logic**: Globally, the 25/26 sugar - making season is expected to be in surplus, with increased production in multiple countries. The domestic supply is also increasing. The price has already reflected the surplus expectation to a large extent, and the downward space is narrowing [18] - **Outlook**: The market fluctuates weakly. A strategy of shorting on rebounds is maintained [18] 3.9. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The futures continue to move sideways, and the spot price slowly declines [19] - **Logic**: The fundamentals of pulp have not changed significantly. The increase in import costs is a positive factor, while the seasonal weakening of demand, abundant spot liquidity, and the lack of pre - holiday stocking are negative factors. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in a short - term range [19] - **Outlook**: The market fluctuates weakly due to the weakening of demand and the abundant supply of softwood pulp [19] 3.10. Double - Offset Paper - **Viewpoint**: The double - offset paper maintains a low - level fluctuation [21] - **Logic**: The market is basically stable, with some production lines in the South China region shutting down, but the inventory pressure of some paper mills still exists. The publishing orders are coming to an end, and the social demand is weak, making it difficult for paper mills to raise prices [21] - **Outlook**: The market fluctuates weakly with the end of publishing orders and the weak social demand [21] 3.11. Logs - **Viewpoint**: The log rebounds from a low valuation [22] - **Logic**: The futures contract rebounds after hitting the bottom, and the macro - sentiment warms up. The price is in the low - valuation area, and the downward space is limited. The negative factors in the delivery aspect are gradually digested, and the spot price in the Jiangsu market rises due to tight supply [22] - **Outlook**: The market is expected to operate within a range in the short term after the negative factors in the delivery aspect are digested and the spot price rises [22][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic oil market is constrained by high supply pressure and weak demand, lacking positive factors, with the core driver still in the external market of the origin. The market is expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation, awaiting the boost from the final US energy policy. It's advisable to adopt a slightly bullish view in the oscillation, and pay attention to the decline opportunities of the rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean price spreads due to the weakening support for rapeseed oil [1][2]. - In the short term, the oil market shows a Back structure with near - term strength and long - term weakness. The price difference of palm oil P5 - 9 oscillates, the Y5 - 9 price difference of soybean oil rises, and the OI5 - 9 price difference of rapeseed oil is mainly in consolidation [37]. - The pogo spread of palm oil decreases slightly, and the cost of palm oil for bio - fuel remains high. The BOHO spread of soybean oil weakens, but it is expected to strengthen gradually, and the global soybean oil price has room for upward repair [52]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - There is a game between inventory pressure and demand growth in palm oil production areas. Malaysia is in the production - reduction season, but the inventory is at a seven - year high. The B50 plan in Indonesia will not be implemented in 2026, and the expansion of the palm oil bio - fuel demand is limited. The price has support, but there is a lack of trend - driving force, waiting for the price boost from India's Ramadan stocking demand [1]. - The latest news on the US biodiesel policy indicates that the existing proposal will be maintained, with the blending requirement for 2026 reaching 5.61 billion gallons and the import raw material penalty limit being cancelled, which is beneficial to the global oil market and Canadian rapeseed. The final result is expected to be announced in March [1]. - The Canada - China talks are currently optimistic. The import tax on Canadian rapeseed is expected to remain at 15%. Coupled with the global rapeseed harvest, the support for rapeseed oil weakens [1]. - Although the inventory of the three major domestic oils has declined, the overall supply is still sufficient, lacking upward momentum. Soybean oil is being destocked due to its high cost - effectiveness, but the supply pressure is still higher than that of last year. The supply gap is not obvious, but the arrival of oilseeds in the first quarter is limited, and attention should be paid to the customs clearance progress and policies [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: There is a short - term rebound trend within the range, and there is still room for upward movement in palm oil in the medium term [15]. - **Price Range**: The oscillation range of P2605 is [8200 - 8900], Y2605 is [7600 - 8100], and OI2605 is [8600 - 9500] [15]. - **Technical Analysis**: Treat the unilateral trends of P05 and Y05 as rebounds within the range, and pay attention to whether the upper pressure levels can be broken. For arbitrage, observe the weakening trend of the rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean price spreads [15]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: Adopt a short - term weak - oscillation view for the current basis; there is no recommendation for the calendar spread strategy; expect the rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean spreads to weaken [16]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of soybean oil is 7600 - 8100, rapeseed oil is 8600 - 9500, and palm oil is 8200 - 8800 [19]. - **Hedging Strategy**: Traders with high oil inventories can short soybean oil futures to lock in profits; refiners with low inventory can buy soybean oil futures to lock in procurement costs; oil mills worried about excessive soybean imports and low soybean oil sales prices can short soybean oil futures to lock in profits [19]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Provides the latest prices, price changes, and spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in the futures and spot markets, as well as the price differences between months and varieties [20][21][22]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The estimated palm oil exports from Malaysia from January 1 - 15 increased by 20.5% compared to the same period last month; as of January 16, 2026, the commercial inventory of the three major domestic oils decreased slightly [23]. - **Negative Information**: The soybean crushing volume of domestic major oil mills increased last week, and it is expected to continue to rise this week; a Chinese importer purchased a ship of Canadian rapeseed, which may weaken Australia's sales; the predicted palm oil production in Malaysia for the 2025/26 season is increased; the predicted soybean exports in Brazil in 2026 will decrease, but the total supply will increase [24]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Recent oil transactions remained weak. Soybean oil transactions were relatively high with an obvious year - on - year increase, palm oil had sporadic transactions, and rapeseed oil had no transactions for the time being [25]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Domestic high - frequency weekly inventory data; high - frequency production and high - frequency export data of Malaysian palm oil; origin weather information [35]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The oil market was divided this week. Soybean oil and palm oil oscillated strongly, while rapeseed oil was affected by the Canada - China talks, rising and then falling back, and then oscillating. There is a lack of trend - driving force for upward movement, and attention should be paid to the US bio - energy policy and the de - stocking progress in the origin. The changes in the key profitable seats of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil were generally small. Some seats slightly increased short positions in rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and reduced short positions in palm oil [34]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The oil market still shows a Back structure. The Back structure of palm oil is relatively steep, and the P5 - 9 price difference oscillates; the Y5 - 9 price difference of soybean oil rises; the OI5 - 9 price difference of rapeseed oil is mainly in consolidation [37]. - **Basis Structure**: The basis of the main oil contracts continued to bottom out and consolidate this week. The basis of soybean and palm oil continued to operate weakly, while the basis of rapeseed oil fluctuated more obviously but gradually weakened with the improvement of the Canada - China relationship [42]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: This week, the cross - variety spread oscillated mainly. As palm oil enters the production - reduction season and starts to de - stock, and the import window of Canadian rapeseed opens, the rapeseed - palm spread is still expected to weaken [46]. - **Foreign Market**: The foreign market rebounded this week. Palm oil became more optimistic due to Malaysia's production - reduction season, better - than - expected exports, and signs of drought. Crude oil strengthened due to geopolitical conflicts, driving US soybean oil to oscillate strongly, and the cost - effectiveness of international palm oil also improved slightly. The net long - position ratio of managed funds decreased, and the commercial short - position ratio was high, limiting the upward space of prices [48][50]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The pogo spread of palm oil decreased slightly, and the cost of palm oil for bio - fuel remained high, requiring government subsidies for the Southeast Asian bio - fuel policy. The BOHO spread of soybean oil continued to weaken, but it is expected to strengthen gradually, and the global soybean oil price has room for upward repair [52]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - The origin's price quotation is firm, and domestic demand is mainly for rigid needs. The import profit of palm oil remains negative, which restricts long - term ship purchases [55]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - In December, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 5.46% month - on - month, exports increased by 8.52% month - on - month, and the ending inventory increased by 7.58% month - on - month. The domestic consumption demand decreased. Although the supply pressure is still large, the better - than - expected exports are expected to promote the de - stocking process. The latest high - frequency data shows that the production in January decreased month - on - month, exports improved, and the inventory inflection point may appear in January [57]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Palm Oil**: In the off - season of demand, transactions are difficult to improve. The origin is in the production - reduction stage, and the willingness to sell is limited. The import profit is inverted, and ship purchases are expected to remain low, waiting for a rebound after the inventory pressure in the origin eases [59]. - **Soybean Oil**: In the first quarter, the arrival of soybeans is at a seasonal low, and the crushing volume decreases. However, the current inventory pressure is large, and the overall supply is still relatively loose. Attention should be paid to the possible short - term supply shortage caused by the arrival rhythm [59]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The downstream demand is limited. Although Australian rapeseed is arriving, the quantity is limited, and the inventory continues to be destocked. The spot supply remains tight, but the global rapeseed harvest and the resumption of Canada - China trade may increase the domestic rapeseed oil supply in the future [59]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The inventory of the three major oils is still high year - on - year, and the downstream demand is sluggish. After the Spring Festival stocking, the market boost is limited, and the overall terminal demand for oils remains weak [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The protein meal market: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal was weak. The expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans is strengthening, and domestic soybean meal prices are under pressure due to high inventory and expected high - yield in South America. The easing of China - Canada trade relations may increase rapeseed imports and put short - term pressure on rapeseed meal prices [3]. - The oil market: Night trading of soybean and palm oil showed a strong and volatile trend, while rapeseed oil was weak. Strong exports and reduced production in Malaysia, along with lower tariffs, support palm oil prices. Favorable demand for US soybean oil due to biofuel policy expectations also provides support. However, the expected increase in domestic rapeseed supply due to the China - Canada economic and trade agreement weakens rapeseed oil prices and restricts short - term soybean and palm oil prices [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Domestic Futures - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 7996, 8648, and 8902 respectively, with changes of - 20, - 26, and - 161, and percentage changes of - 0.25%, - 0.30%, and - 3.15%. The closing prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 2727, 2327, and 8844 respectively, with changes of 0, - 133, and 26, and percentage changes of 0.00%, - 5.41%, and 0.29% [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current spreads and ratios of various varieties have changed compared to the previous values, such as the Y9 - 1 spread changing from - 390 to - 364, and the M9 - 1 spread changing from - 179 to - 238 [1]. International Futures - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4027 (Ringgit/ton), 1056.25 (cents/bushel), 52.51 (cents/pound), and 289.90 (dollars/ton) respectively, with changes of 77.0, 3.8, - 0.4, and 0.7, and percentage changes of 1.95%, 0.36%, - 0.76%, and 0.24% [1]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8530 and 8580 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.12% and 0.00%. The spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil are 8700, with no change. The spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil are 9780 and 9830 respectively, with percentage changes of - 1.71% and - 1.70% [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The current spot basis and spreads of various varieties have also changed compared to the previous values, such as the spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil being 534, and the spot spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil remaining at - 150 [1]. Import and Profit - The current import profits of Malaysian palm oil, US Gulf soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, US West soybeans, Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and Canadian rapeseed are - 342, - 264, - 71, - 217, 270, and 387 respectively, showing changes compared to the previous values [1]. Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 27,485, 1,148, 1,942, 32,440, 84, and 0 respectively, with some varieties showing changes compared to the previous values [1]. Industry Information - **Palm Oil**: It is expected that the average price of palm oil in 2026 will be 4,125 Ringgit per ton, a year - on - year decrease of 2.55%. Malaysia's palm oil production in 2026 is expected to be 1,975 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.61%, while Indonesia's production is expected to reach a record 5,120 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.39% [3]. - **Soybeans**: As of last Thursday, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil for the 2025/26 season was 2%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the previous week and slightly higher than 1.7% in the same period last year. In the third week of January 2026, Brazil shipped a total of 130.74 tons of soybeans, with an average daily shipment of 11.89 tons, a 144.56% increase compared to January last year [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term soybean market will maintain a weak oscillating operation with a pattern of near - term strength and far - term weakness. The palm oil market will also maintain a weak oscillating trend in the short term due to factors such as unmet demand expectations and high inventory [5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: The intraday view is weak oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is weak oscillation [5] - **Core Logic**: The US soybean market is supported by US crushing demand, but Brazil's record - high production prospects pressure the far - month contracts. In the domestic market, the import cost is falling, and the market is weak. The price of the industrial chain is relatively firm due to lower oil mill operating rates, inventory depletion, and rigid demand, with a strengthening basis. The core market game is between upstream price - holding and downstream slow - down in procurement. The long - term loose expectation suppresses far - month contracts, while spot firmness and inventory depletion support near - month contracts [5] 3.2. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: The intraday view is weak oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is weak oscillation [7] - **Core Logic**: Recently, the palm oil market has been suppressed by Indonesia's under - expected biofuel policy and high inventory at the origin, resulting in weak oscillating prices. Indonesia's postponement of the B50 project and maintaining the B40 blending standard have disappointed the market's demand expectation for about 3 million tons of palm oil consumption growth. Although Malaysia's inventory is affected by seasonal production cuts, the absolute level remains high, with continuous supply pressure. Market sentiment has turned bearish, and speculative funds have continuously reduced net long positions, leading to weak price rebounds. In the short term, without new demand drivers, palm oil will maintain a weak oscillating trend [7]

Group 1: Corn Market - The corn futures for March reached a peak of 2300 yuan/ton, but the overall trend remains weak; the CBOT March corn contract rose by 2.25 cents [4] - On January 12, the China Grain Reserves Corporation's Jilin branch auctioned nearly 30,000 tons of corn, all of which was sold at a premium. However, on January 15, only 20% of the 16,000 tons auctioned was sold. The Jilin branch plans to auction 71,000 tons on January 16, indicating that market sentiment is still waiting to be released [4] - Brazil's National Grain Exporters Association (ANEC) reported that corn exports from Brazil in January are expected to reach 3.27 million tons, an increase from the previous estimate of 2.85 million tons and a 2.7% rise compared to the same period last year [5] Group 2: Soybean Meal Market - The CBOT soybean market benefited from favorable biofuel policies, continuing to rebound, but the outlook for abundant South American production limits upward potential [16] - Forecasts indicate that the upcoming week will see significant rainfall in Brazil's Midwest (over 80 mm), while the southern regions and key areas in Argentina will experience little to no rain, raising concerns about the impact of high temperatures and low rainfall on Argentine soybean growth [16] - The market is currently in a state of "overall looseness but with structural tightness expected," with weakening cost support from the U.S. market and declines in meal prices affecting soybean meal prices [16] Group 3: Egg Market - The spot price of eggs in major production areas continues to rise, with the average price in Hebei's Guantao at approximately 3.40 yuan per jin, an increase of 0.06 yuan from the previous day [17] - The industry inventory is at a historical low, with available days of inventory in production and circulation at around one day, making the market highly sensitive to concentrated demand releases [17] - In the medium to long term, the price of eggs is expected to gradually increase, driven by a clear trend of capacity reduction [17] Group 4: Pig Market - The average price of live pigs in major production areas is approximately 13.25 yuan per kilogram, with prices continuing to rise above 13 yuan per kilogram [19] - There is a growing sentiment for piglet restocking in January, with prices for piglets rising quickly to an average of 330 yuan per head [19] - Short-term focus should be on the near-term market trends, while medium-term strategies can be based on breeding profits [19]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 1 月 19 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2605 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏强 进口大豆成本，进口到港节 奏，油厂开工节奏，库存压力 豆油 2605 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏强 美豆成本支撑，美国生物燃 料政策，美豆油库存，国内 大豆成本支撑，供应节奏， 油厂库存 棕榈 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Multiple factors are intertwined, increasing the volatility of oils and fats, with the overall market moving in a volatile manner. The MPOB report had a negative impact, with inventory accumulation slightly exceeding expectations. The latest data shows a significant month - on - month decline in Malaysian palm oil production, and due to the recovery of Indian import demand, export demand has continuously improved, providing support for prices. In terms of biodiesel, Indonesia has cancelled the implementation of the B50 policy in 2026, but there is still uncertainty. The US biodiesel policy is expected to be finalized in early March, which may expand the demand for US soybean oil biodiesel and cause a sharp rise in futures prices. It is expected that palm oil will move in a volatile manner in the short term [4][8][12]. Summary by Directory Market Data - CBOT soybean oil main continuous contract rose 2.85 to 51.51 cents per pound, an increase of 5.74%; BMD Malaysian palm oil main continuous contract rose 18 to 4056 ringgit per ton, an increase of 0.45%; DCE palm oil 05 contract fell 8 to 8674 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.09%. DCE soybean oil 05 contract rose 22 to 8016 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.28%; CZCE rapeseed oil 05 contract rose 21 to 9063 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.23%. The spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil also showed different degrees of increase. The soybean - palm oil futures spread was - 658 yuan per ton, an increase of 30 yuan per ton; the rapeseed - palm oil futures spread was 389 yuan per ton, an increase of 29 yuan per ton [4][5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The MPOB report in December showed that Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory was 3.05 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.58%, slightly higher than market expectations; exports were 1.317 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.52%; production was 1.83 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.76%. - From January 1 - 15, 2026, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 18.24% month - on - month. From January 1 - 10, exports increased by 16.4% - 29.2% compared with the same period last month according to different survey agencies. - Indonesia cancelled the implementation of the B50 policy in 2026. The US is advancing its biodiesel policy and is expected to finalize the 2026 biodiesel blending quota in early March, with the quota ranging from 5.2 - 5.6 billion gallons. - China - Canada trade relations have improved, and the import comprehensive tariff of Canadian rapeseed has been reduced to 15%, and the domestic supply of rapeseed is expected to increase in the future. - As of the week of January 9, 2026, the inventory of the three major oils in key regions across the country was 2.0146 million tons, a decrease of 70,200 tons from the previous week. Among them, soybean oil inventory decreased by 55,900 tons, palm oil inventory increased by 2,200 tons, and rapeseed oil inventory decreased by 16,500 tons [8][9][11]. Industry News - Maybank analyst Ong Chee Ting believes that this year, crude palm oil prices may be mainly driven by demand, with an expected average price of 4100 ringgit per ton, trading in the range of 3700 - 4700 ringgit per ton. - Economists believe that Indonesia's implementation of the B50 biodiesel mandate will enhance Malaysia's competitiveness in the global palm oil market. - CIMB Securities expects that the upward catalyst for crude palm oil prices may have disappeared. It has lowered the expected average price of crude palm oil this year to 4000 - 4200 ringgit per ton. - Malaysia's palm oil inventory may decline by 5% month - on - month in January to 2.9 million tons, and production is expected to decline by 14% month - on - month to 1.57 million tons. - Malaysia has lowered its reference price for crude palm oil in February, reducing the export tariff to 9%. - RHB Research and MBSB Research believe that stable production, high ending inventory in Malaysia, and Indonesia's new policy adjustments are factors supporting the industry. MBSB Research expects the average price of Malaysian crude palm oil in 2026 to be 4200 ringgit per ton, and RHB Research to be 4250 ringgit per ton [13][14][15]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, and the three major oils' futures and spot prices, the trends of various oils' inventory, production, and export volume, and the spreads between different oils [18][20][30].