Group 1 - The macro environment for next year may continue with fiscal policies such as trade-in programs and consumer subsidies, while overseas liquidity is expected to be supported by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1] - Concerns about whether AI has entered a bubble phase are prevalent, with significant adjustments in the US stock market and worries about cash flow and debt issues among cloud companies [1] - However, compared to the internet bubble in 2000, the cash flow, profitability, and profit margins of leading overseas cloud companies are healthier, with capital expenditure growth expected to reach 30% to 40% next year [1] Group 2 - Some growth sectors' earnings expectations for next year are already priced in, while high dividend and high cash flow assets have lagged behind, making them attractive for investment [2] - The recommendation is to diversify investments, especially for sectors with high floating profits, to achieve a better investment experience during potential market fluctuations [2] Group 3 - The direction of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts is relatively clear, which may lead to a more accommodative overseas liquidity environment, benefiting technology growth sectors [3] - Domestic monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, with potential for further rate cuts, which would favor high dividend and high cash flow assets [3] - Historical data shows a negative correlation between high dividend assets and domestic bond yields, suggesting that a decline in bond yields could enhance the attractiveness of high dividend assets in the A-share market [3] Group 4 - High dividend and high cash flow assets are becoming the core of investment allocation, with specific ETFs like cash flow ETF (159399) and dividend state-owned enterprise ETF (510720) offering distinct advantages [4] - The current market is undergoing valuation adjustments, and long-term funds are encouraged to accumulate positions at lower prices, with a balanced allocation being more suitable for the market outlook in 2026 [4]

Market Overview - In 2025, the A-share market achieved a historic breakthrough driven by enhanced national governance and increased confidence in technology, with major indices significantly rising and the Shanghai Composite Index reaching above 4000 points [3] - The total market capitalization surpassed 100 trillion yuan, with active trading and a clear focus on technology growth [3] - The outlook for 2026 suggests a consolidation phase for the A-share market, characterized by "sideways fluctuations with slight strengthening," supported by positive expectations for national governance and long-term development [3] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of mid-cap blue-chip stocks as a stabilizing force during market fluctuations, with a shift in investor preference from extreme technology and dividend styles to mid-range options [4] - It is recommended to explore opportunities in the long-dormant consumer sector and to wait for new catalysts in technology growth [4] Industry Focus: Swine Industry - The report highlights a pessimistic outlook for the swine industry, suggesting that the current market conditions present significant investment value [5] - Recent policies and market dynamics are expected to drive capacity reduction in the swine industry, leading to long-term performance improvements [5] - The report notes that market expectations for swine prices in 2026 are extremely low, which may underestimate the inventory and capacity reduction situation [5] - Historical trends indicate that when prices for fat pigs and piglets are low, the industry is likely to initiate market-driven capacity reductions, supported by ongoing policy restrictions on leading producers [5] Industry Focus: Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot sector is anticipated to see rapid advancements in motion control in 2025, with mass production becoming a key focus in 2026 [6] - The report identifies the brain model as a significant challenge for mass production, with expectations for accelerated progress in the first half of 2026 [6] - Companies with strong manufacturing and management capabilities in the components sector are expected to benefit from this trend [6]

Market Overview - In 2025, the A-share market achieved a historic breakthrough driven by enhanced national governance and increased confidence in technology, with major indices significantly elevated and the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassing 4000 points [3] - The total market capitalization exceeded 100 trillion yuan, with active trading and a clear focus on technology growth [3] - The outlook for 2026 suggests a consolidation phase for the A-share market, characterized by "sideways fluctuations with slight strengthening," supported by positive expectations for national governance and long-term development [3] Sector Strategy - The mid-cap blue-chip stocks are positioned as a stabilizing force in the market, with a shift in risk appetite leading funds from extreme technology and dividend styles to the mid-range, providing opportunities for mid-cap blue chips [4] - The performance of cyclical sectors (non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals) and manufacturing (communications, military) has been validated by the market, suggesting a focus on the long-dormant consumer sector and waiting for new catalysts in technology growth [4] Industry Insights - The pig farming sector is viewed as having significant value due to extremely pessimistic expectations, with recent policies and market dynamics driving capacity reduction, which is expected to enhance long-term performance [5] - The market's pessimism regarding pig prices for 2026 is seen as underestimating inventory and capacity reduction, with historical trends indicating a likely market-driven capacity reduction [5] - The humanoid robot sector is anticipated to see rapid advancements in motion control in 2025, with mass production becoming a key focus in 2026, driven by the evolution of brain models [6] - Companies with strong manufacturing and management capabilities in the components sector are expected to benefit from the future of mass production in humanoid robots [6]

Wind数据显示，截至12月26日，全市场1284只股票ETF（含跨境ETF）总规模为4.79万亿元。若按照区间成交均价测算，12月26日股票ETF整体净流入资 金为103.71亿元。 从大类型来看，12月26日，宽基ETF净流入金额居前，达123.06亿元。 【导读】12月26日股票ETF净流入超100亿元 12月26日，A股三大股指集体收涨，沪指实现日线八连阳，两市成交额显著放量。在市场震荡上扬之时，股票ETF单日净流入103.71亿元。多数宽基ETF 获资金青睐，中证1000、中证500、沪深300、上证50、中证A500等指数ETF均获大举加仓，而国防军工ETF和黄金ETF净流出金额居前。 宽基ETF获大举加仓 华夏基金ETF方面，12月26日，旗下科创50ETF和A500ETF基金分别净流入7.1亿元和4.65亿元；沪深300ETF华夏净流入2.23亿元，同样位居前列。 行业主题ETF资金净流出居前 12月26日，行业主题板块成为"失血"大户，单日净流出合计20.98亿元。 净流出前5板块分别为国防军工、黄金、人工智能、证券、稀土，净流出分别达11.5亿元、6.6亿元、5.9亿元、4.2亿元、3亿元 ...

【导读】 12 月 26 日股票 ETF 净流入超 100 亿元 中国基金报记者 王思文 12 月 26 日， A 股三大股指集体收涨，沪指实现日线八连阳，两市成交额显著放量。在市场震荡上扬之时，股票 ETF 单日净流入 103.71 亿元。多数宽基 ETF 获资金青睐，中证 1000 、中证 500 、沪深 300 、上证 50 、中证 A500等指数 ETF 均获大举加仓，而国 防军工ETF和黄金 ETF 净流出金额居前。 宽基 ETF 获大举加仓 Wind 数据显示，截至 12 月 26 日，全市场 1284 只股票 ETF （含跨境 ETF ）总规模为 4.79 万亿元。若按照区间成交均价测算， 12 月 26 日股票 ETF 整体净流入资金为 103.71 亿元。 从大类型来看， 12 月 26 日，宽基 ETF 净流入金额居前，达 123.06 亿元。 具体来看，中证 1000 指数ETF单日净流入居前，达 30.5 亿元。单只 ETF 方面， 南方基金旗下中证 1000ETF 单日净流入达 16.92 亿 元；华夏基金旗下 中证 1000ETF 单日净流入 8.42 亿元，最新规模达 500.1 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the recent performance of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board 100 Index and its ETF indicates a positive trend, driven by strong policy support and improving market conditions [1][2] - As of December 29, 2025, the Sci-Tech Innovation Board 100 Index rose by 0.19%, with notable individual stock performances, including Fushen Eagle up by 6.81% and Yuntian Lifi up by 6.28% [1] - The Sci-Tech 100 Index ETF has seen a significant increase in trading volume and liquidity, with a recent turnover of 0.59% and a total transaction value of 36.25 million yuan [1][3] Group 2 - The latest size of the Sci-Tech 100 Index ETF reached 6.18 billion yuan, marking a one-month high, with a notable increase of 18 million shares in the past week [3] - The net inflow of funds into the Sci-Tech 100 Index ETF was 16.54 million yuan, with a total of 149 million yuan accumulated over the last ten trading days [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Sci-Tech 100 Index account for 26.72% of the index, including companies like Huahong Semiconductor and East China Semiconductor [3]

策略研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【华创策略】 大类资产年关盘点 ——策略周聚焦 ❖ 2025 年全球大类资产对比：贵金属、权益市场表现强势 过去两年贵金属持续走强，年初以来黄金涨 63.8%，白银自 11 月底加速上行， 涨幅达 158%，超越黄金。中国权益资产表现突出，A 股和港股分别上涨 18.3% 和 28.7%，显著优于过去三年，并反超美股（17.8%）和欧股（17.4%）。美债 小幅上涨 3.4%，中债下跌 1.1%；原油跌 8.8%，国内房价跌 5.7%；比特币由 前两年领涨转为回调 13.3%。 ❖ 2025 年全球主要股指对比：权益资产普遍上行，新兴市场、科技股优势凸显 相较 22 年普跌及 23–24 年结构性分化，2025 年全球股指普遍回暖，新兴市场 与科技股优势突出。上证指数上涨 18.3%，显著优于 21–23 年低迷表现，自 24 年 924 后稳步修复。今年亚洲市场领涨，韩国综合指数大涨 72.1%，日经 225 涨 27.2%；欧洲相对疲弱，法国 CAC40 和英国富时 100 分别涨 9.8%和 20.8%； 美股延续上涨趋势，纳指与标普 500 分别涨 22.2%和 17 ...

证券研究报告 A股2026年十大预测 证券分析师：陈刚 执业证书编号：S0600523040001 邮箱：cheng@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理：林煜辉 执业证书编号：S0600124060012 邮箱：linyh@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理：孔思迈 执业证书编号：S0600124070019 邮箱：kongsm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师：谢立昕 执业证书编号：S0600525080001 邮箱：xielx@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师：蒋珺逸 执业证书编号：S0600525040004 邮箱：jiangjy@dwzq.com.cn 2025年12月28日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 回顾2025年提出的十大预测 风险提示：经济复苏不及预期；美债见顶下行迟于预期；地缘政治事件黑天鹅。 数据来源：Wind，东吴证券研究所；注：涨幅若无其他说明，统计区间均为2025年1月1日-2025年12月26日） 2 ◼ 回顾2025年提出的十大预测： ➢ 预测一：A股震荡上行，进入新的波动中枢（万得全A涨幅为28.1%，沪指四季度围绕3900点震荡） ➢ 预测二：2025年A股交易结构比指数更 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index supported by heavyweight sectors, while the ChiNext Index faced a pullback due to corrections in some high-valuation stocks [1][9] - The market sentiment improved as the three major indices collectively turned positive, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a seven-day winning streak, indicating rising expectations for the year-end market [1][9] - The upward trend in the market is attributed to favorable policies and improvements in the exchange rate, with the central bank signaling a commitment to maintaining market stability and the RMB appreciating against the USD [1][9] Policy and Economic Outlook - The central bank's fourth-quarter meeting emphasized maintaining capital market stability and proposed measures such as stock repurchase loans and exploring regular institutional arrangements [1][9] - Despite marginal improvements in macroeconomic data, a clear recovery point has not yet been established, and corporate earnings recovery requires further observation [2][10] - Incremental policy support is expected to be concentrated around the Lunar New Year, limiting short-term market upside potential [2][10] Sector Analysis - The military industry has shown significant growth, with a 25.27% increase in the sector's overall performance since the second half of 2020, and a 25.46% increase in the first half of 2025 [6][8] - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing heightened activity due to clear top-level policies and the establishment of dedicated regulatory bodies, providing a stable development environment [7][8] - The robotics industry has seen substantial gains, with the humanoid robot sector increasing by approximately 80% since early January 2025, driven by strong internal growth and supportive government policies [8][9] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with strong earnings support, including technology growth areas (semiconductors, AI themes, robotics), cyclical industries (solar, batteries, chemicals), and dividend stocks (banks, utilities) [2][10] - Caution is recommended against high-valuation speculative stocks lacking earnings support, as the market may experience differentiation among individual stocks [2][10]

Group 1 - The core logic driving "technology growth" will remain unchanged through 2026, according to Dongwu Securities' chief strategist Chen Gang [1] - AI trading is expanding towards applications and edge computing, indicating a shift in focus [1] - The company is optimistic about sectors such as edge consumer electronics and smart vehicles [1]