金价破5500美元，稀土涨超12万/吨，公募规模快摸到38万亿了——你是不是看着行情又爽又慌？想冲 怕站岗，不冲又怕踏空？ 我是帮主郑重，做了20年财经记者，专盯中长线投资，今天就用大白话跟你唠唠这波热闹行情的核心， 咱们不玩虚的，只讲你能听懂的硬逻辑。 先说说最火的黄金，四天涨了500美元，创了历史新高，连黄金基金都出了千亿规模的爆款。为啥黄金 突然这么疯？其实跟美联储暂停降息有关，说白了就是大家对手里的钱没那么有底气了，连续三次降息 后突然刹车，市场担心后续通胀抬头，手里的纸币不值钱，自然就往黄金这种硬通货里钻——这就是咱 们常说的信用逻辑，你品品，是不是这个理？你身边有没有人最近跟风买黄金基金？或者早就拿着黄金 股偷着乐的？ 再看稀土，有些品种一个月涨了12万/吨，比黄金还猛。很多人觉得这又是炒概念，但我得告诉你，这 次不一样。我做财经记者那会，2019年那波稀土行情，涨得快跌得也快，因为没多少真实需求撑着。但 现在不一样了，AI数据中心要用电线，新能源汽车要做电机，都离不开稀土，企业是真金白银在买， 这就是产业逻辑在发力。而且机构都说缺口还要扩大，你说这种有真实需求托底的上涨，是不是比单纯 炒消息靠谱 ...

2026年1月以来，公募基金调研活动持续升温，科技成长板块成为核心布局方向，AI应用、商业航天、 创新药及半导体等领域的上市公司获得重点关注。其中，大金重工、翔宇医疗、海天瑞声、爱朋医疗、 熵基科技、美好医疗、博拓生物、天承科技、三七互娱、航天宏图等多家企业均获超百家机构调研。多 位基金经理密集调研细分赛道龙头企业，聚焦技术壁垒高、场景落地明确的优质标的，清晰反映出机构 对科技领域"技术突破+业绩兑现"的双重重视。 ...

证券Ⅱ 分析师：张洋 登记编码：S0730516040002 zhangyang-yjs@ccnew.com 021-50586627 券商板块 2025 年 12 月回顾及 2026 年 1 月前瞻 ——券商板块月报 证券研究报告-行业月报 同步大市(维持) 证券Ⅱ相对沪深 300 指数表现 资料来源：聚源、中原证券研究所 -10% -5% 0% 6% 11% 16% 21% 26% 2025.02 2025.06 2025.09 2026.01 证券Ⅱ 沪深300 相关报告 《证券Ⅱ行业月报：券商板块 2025 年 11 月 回顾及 12 月前瞻》 2025-12-26 《证券Ⅱ行业月报：券商板块 2025 年 10 月 回顾及 11 月前瞻》 2025-11-25 《证券Ⅱ行业年度策略：投融资协调发展，行 业景气度延续》 2025-11-24 联系人：李智 风险提示：1.权益及固收市场环境转弱导致上市券商业绩出现下滑；2. 股价短期波动风险；3.资本市场改革的政策效果不及预期 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 第1页 / 共13页 发布日期：2026 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the importance of following the "14th Five-Year Plan" and subsequent incremental policy directions, suggesting a focus on technology growth supported by performance, while also considering cyclical commodities, domestic consumption, dividend stocks, and sectors with improving economic conditions [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to pay attention to cyclical sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies and economic recovery [1] - Domestic consumption trends include the "silver economy" for the elderly, "self-indulgent consumption" for younger generations, affordable consumption for the general public, and new vitality in consumption [1] - Dividend stocks still hold value for investment when selected at lower prices [1] Group 2: Cash Flow ETF - Investors may consider the Cash Flow ETF (159399), which has outperformed the CSI Dividend Index and the CSI 300 Index for nine consecutive years from 2016 to 2024 [1] - The underlying index of the Cash Flow ETF focuses on large and mid-cap stocks, with a higher proportion of central state-owned enterprises compared to similar cash flow indices [1] - Monthly assessments of dividends are possible for the Cash Flow ETF, making it an attractive option for interested investors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently experiencing a narrow range of fluctuations, with a divergence in individual stock performances, indicating a potential shift from theme-driven to fundamental-driven market dynamics, while technology growth remains the main focus [1] Group 1: Market Overview - The index continued to fluctuate within a narrow range, with over 3,400 stocks declining and only about 1,900 stocks rising, indicating a significant divergence in stock performance [1] - The total trading volume on Tuesday was 2.9 trillion yuan, which is more than a 10% decrease compared to Monday, reflecting a notable contraction in market activity [1] - Since the end of the continuous rise on January 13, the index has entered a period of adjustment, characterized by a relatively mild overall adjustment range [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The market is expected to shift from theme-driven momentum to a focus on fundamentals, with technology growth remaining the primary driver [1] - The main driving factors for the spring market are anticipated to be an increase in market risk appetite, with future hotspots likely to be technology growth sectors supported by fundamentals [1] - Key sectors to watch include semiconductors, batteries, AI hardware, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are expected to benefit from this shift [1] Group 3: Hot Sectors - In January, technology and raw material price increases are expected to dominate, with a strong likelihood of technology growth sectors outperforming [2] - Short-term catalysts such as commercial aerospace, brain-computer interfaces, and low-altitude economy are expected to maintain investor interest [2] - The rise in raw material prices, particularly in small metals, energy metals, and new chemical materials, is seen as a derivative opportunity from the technology investment boom [2] Group 4: Specific Trends - The trend in AI hardware is firmly established, with a continuous increase in the token usage of major AI models, indicating a peak in AI applications expected by 2026 [2] - The domestic production of robots and their integration into daily life is a confirmed trend for 2026, with opportunities arising in sensors, controllers, and dexterous hands [2] - The trend towards semiconductor localization is ongoing, with a focus on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, semiconductor materials, and IC design [2] - The demand for new energy materials is rapidly increasing due to domestic and overseas energy storage needs, with signs of supply shortages and price increases expected to continue until 2026 [2] - Innovative pharmaceuticals are entering a recovery phase after nearly four years of adjustment, with positive net profit growth for four consecutive quarters since Q3 2024, and a fundamental turning point expected in 2025 [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that technology growth and non-ferrous metals sectors are key drivers for market momentum at the beginning of 2026, with the launch of the Invesco Great Wall Prosperity Driven Fund managed by experienced fund manager Dong Han [1] - Dong Han has 19 years of experience in the securities and fund industry, with over 14 years of investment experience, focusing on sectors such as semiconductors, consumer electronics, new energy vehicles, and cyclical industries [1] - The fund will invest in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, incorporating a floating fee structure linked to excess returns to align the interests of the manager and investors [1] Group 2 - In the short to medium term, the driving force for the equity market's rise will shift from valuation recovery to profit recovery, with a focus on structural performance improvements from breakthroughs in the AI industry and overall economic recovery [2] - Long-term prospects for China's economic structural transformation are significantly improved, which will continue to translate into economic growth momentum and corporate performance [2] - Dong Han is optimistic about the equity market performance in 2026, identifying technology growth as a key theme throughout the year, with a more balanced market style compared to 2025, particularly favoring sectors such as semiconductors, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, AI computing power, and humanoid robots [2]

行业涨跌榜 | 库号 证券代码 | | 证券简称 | 区间涨跌幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | [区间首日] 2026-01-19 | | | | | | ［区间尾日］2026-01-24 | | | | | | 单位 % ↑ | | | 1 | : 801780.SI | 银行(申万) | | -2.6979 | | 2 | 801770.SI | 通信(申万) | | -2.1196 | | 3 801790.SI | | 非银金融(申万) | | -1.4536 | 申万一级行业中，建筑材料、石油石化、钢铁涨幅靠前，银行、通信、非银金融、食品饮料跌幅靠前。 上周市场回顾 关键词：权益市场多数上涨 上周权益市场分化，上证指数上涨0.8%，深证指数上涨1.1%，沪深300下跌0.6%，创业板指下跌0.3%， 科创50上涨2.6%。 债市上涨，10年国债收益率收于1.83%左右，下行约1.3bp，7年国债收益下行2.2bp左右，1年国债收益 率上行约4.0bp，3年期中债企业债收益率下行约1.5bp。 | 成号 证券代码 | | 证券简称 | 区间涨跌 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to shift from "expectation speculation" in 2025 to "performance verification" in 2026, with a focus on structural opportunities despite potential volatility [1] Equity Market - The A-share market is anticipated to exhibit a range-bound pattern in 2026, supported by global liquidity easing and RMB appreciation, with an emphasis on structural opportunities [2] - Technology growth is identified as a key sector for the year, driven by the accelerating penetration of AI, which will boost demand across semiconductor equipment, materials, and storage [2] - Three main areas for investment are highlighted: 1. High-growth sectors including CPU and optical communication, alongside non-ferrous metals like copper, aluminum, gold, and rare earths, benefiting from strategic metal demand and supply constraints [2] 2. Recovery sectors such as aviation and tourism, showing signs of improvement, with low valuation stocks in chemicals and construction materials poised for significant price elasticity [3] 3. Thematic investments in commercial aerospace, solid-state batteries, and AR healthcare, with a focus on order fulfillment and revenue growth [3] - Precious metals are expected to continue their bull market, supported by central bank and ETF purchases, alongside safe-haven demand [3] Bond Market - The bond market is projected to experience a "low-level wide fluctuation" pattern, with a focus on defensive strategies and some flexibility [4] - Key factors influencing interest rate fluctuations include the pace of economic demand recovery, real estate risks, and inflation narratives [4] - Specific strategies for bond types include: - City investment bonds, where the pricing logic is shifting from "guaranteed repayment" to "state-owned enterprise credit," necessitating a focus on risk management [5] - Convertible bonds, where supply-demand mismatches create opportunities for stock selection and index enhancement [5] - REITs, which require careful selection for new issues and attention to secondary market pricing opportunities [5] Quantitative Strategy - The outlook for quantitative strategies in 2026 is optimistic, driven by liquidity, factor effectiveness recovery, and market rotation [6] - Sufficient liquidity is noted, with market trading volumes nearing 40 trillion, providing a conducive environment for quantitative strategies [6] - The return of factor effectiveness is expected to support stock selection and judgment, as corporate earnings are projected to recover [6] - Market rotation across themes such as technology and cyclical sectors is anticipated to create opportunities for excess returns through style rotation strategies [6]

记者丨易妍君 编辑丨张星 公募基金业绩持续向好背景下，发行市场有所升温。 据Wind统计， 截至2026年1月25日，本月内新成立了76只基金，合计发行规模达到719.39亿元，单只产品平均发行规模约为9.47亿 元。 而上一次月度新成立基金的平均发行规模超过9亿元，要追溯到2025年2月。 分类型看，截至目前，权益类基金、混合型FOF成为1月公募新发市场的主力。 尤其是主动管理型基金"人气"颇高。在上述新成立的76只基金中，共有13只产品的发行规模达到20亿元及以上：包括6只偏股混合型 基金、3只混合型FOF、2只二级债基、1只增强指数基金和1只指数债基。 受访人士向21世纪经济报道记者指出，市场、政策、资金等多重利好共振，推动2026年开年公募基金发行回暖。同时，基金公司聚 焦科技、科创等热门赛道以及FOF等稳健型产品，精准匹配投资者多元配置需求，进一步提升了发行热度。 新基金吸金逾7 1 9亿元背后 2026年开年以来，公募基金发行市场暖意融融。 个别偏股混合型基金、混合型FOF，成为市场焦点。 2026年1月23日，富国智汇稳健3个月持有期FOF正式成立。该产品于1月19日开启认购，并在1月21日提前 ...

公募基金业绩持续向好背景下，发行市场有所升温。 据Wind统计，截至2026年1月25日，本月内新成立了76只基金，合计发行规模达到719.39亿元，单只产品平均发行规模约为9.47亿元。而上一 次月度新成立基金的平均发行规模超过9亿元，要追溯到2025年2月。 分类型看，截至目前，权益类基金、混合型FOF成为1月公募新发市场的主力。 尤其是主动管理型基金"人气"颇高。在上述新成立的76只基金中，共有13只产品的发行规模达到20亿元及以上：包括6只偏股混合型基金、3只 混合型FOF、2只二级债基、1只增强指数基金和1只指数债基。 受访人士向21世纪经济报道记者指出，市场、政策、资金等多重利好共振，推动2026年开年公募基金发行回暖。同时，基金公司聚焦科技、科 创等热门赛道以及FOF等稳健型产品，精准匹配投资者多元配置需求，进一步提升了发行热度。 2026年开年以来，公募基金发行市场暖意融融。个别偏股混合型基金、混合型FOF，成为市场焦点。 2026年1月23日，富国智汇稳健3个月持有期FOF正式成立。该产品于1月19日开启认购，并在1月21日提前结束募集，短短3天募集规模达到 41.90亿元。 加上富国智汇稳 ...