Core Viewpoint - Wall Street investment banks are strengthening their view that the US dollar will weaken further due to interest rate cuts, economic slowdown, and President Trump's trade and tax policies [1][2][3] Group 1: Predictions on Dollar Value - Morgan Stanley predicts that the dollar index will decline by approximately 9% to 91 by this time next year [2] - Morgan Stanley's global macro strategy head states that the dollar is expected to drop to levels seen during the COVID-19 pandemic by mid-next year [1] - Pioneer Investments anticipates a 10% depreciation of the Bloomberg Dollar Index within the next 12 months [3] Group 2: Currency Comparisons - Morgan Stanley suggests that the euro, yen, and Swiss franc will be the biggest beneficiaries of the dollar's decline [2] - The euro reached a five-week high against the dollar, peaking at 1.1450, with expectations to rise to around 1.25 next year [2] - The British pound is projected to strengthen from approximately 1.35 to 1.45 against the dollar due to "high carry" returns and lower trade risk [2] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has seen a decline as US factory activity shrank for the third consecutive month [1] - Investors are reassessing their risk exposure to US assets, leading to increased hedging ratios, which may contribute to downward pressure on the dollar over the next 12 months [1] - Upcoming US labor market indicators, including the May non-farm payroll report, will be closely monitored to gauge potential changes in Federal Reserve policy and its impact on the dollar [2]

多重因素施压美元 美元的疲软表现背后是多重因素的叠加。美国经济增速自2025年第一季度以来明显放缓，GDP同比增速 预期下调。特朗普政府的关税政策引发了全球市场的广泛担忧，尤其是对美国经济的长期影响。2025年 第一季度美国GDP环比年化下滑1.8%，为一年以来首次萎缩。 此外，美国对欧盟、中国、日本等主要贸易伙伴的关税政策增加了市场对全球贸易摩擦的担忧，削弱了 美元的避险属性。此外，全球央行逐步减少美元储备比例，增加黄金和其他货币的配置，进一步削弱了 美元的国际地位。 华尔街巨头纷纷看空 当前，华尔街多家银行对美元将进一步走软的预期正在升温。摩根士丹利最新研报指出，在美联储降息 周期与全球经济增速放缓的双重压力下，美元指数或将开启深度调整。到2026年年中，美元指数还将较 当前水平下跌约9%。 摩根大通持续看空美元；高盛指出，如果加征关税的政策受阻，白宫方面试图探索其他收入来源的举措 可能对美元造成更加严重的打击；富国银行策略师Aroop Chatterjee直言："我们认为，围绕美元走软的 中期叙事正在形成。" "复仇税"引发市场震动 上周，美国众议院通过的税收与支出法案中新增了一项名为"第899条"的规 ...

智通财经APP获悉，周一，随着全球贸易紧张局势加剧，美元兑十国集团(G10)所有货币均出现下跌。 Bloomberg美元指数下跌0.6%，接近2023年以来最低的盘中水平。与此同时，华尔街多家银行对美元将 进一步走软的预期正在升温，理由包括美联储即将降息、经济增长放缓、以及美国总统特朗普的贸易与 税收政策带来的影响。 摩根士丹利表示，到明年年中，美元将跌至大流行期间的水平。摩根大通也持续看空美元。高盛则指 出，如果加征关税的政策受阻，白宫方面试图探索其他收入来源的举措可能对美元造成更加严重的打 击。富国银行策略师Aroop Chatterjee直言："我们认为，围绕美元走软的中期叙事正在形成。" 美元空头仓位接近2023年以来最高 摩根士丹利全球宏观策略主管Matthew Hornbach周一表示："美国以外的投资者正在重新审视他们在美 国的资产配置，同时也在重新评估与这些资产相关的美元敞口。他们提高了对冲比率，这是未来12个月 内将给美元带来下行压力的因素之一。"该行预测，美元指数(DXY)将在明年6月左右下跌约9%，跌至 91点。 以Meera Chandan为首的摩根大通策略师重申了对美元的负面看法，并 ...

华尔街巨头警告，美元指数未来一年将跌9%。 周一，美元对一篮子货币走低，美元指数下跌超0.7%，最低触及98.68，似乎也印证了市场对美元前景的谨慎态度。与此同时，欧元升至一个月高位，英镑来 到1.3550，美元/日元跌至142.80附近。 "央行降息+经济放缓"，美元将走软 根据大摩的预测，美联储将在未来实施175个基点的降息，这将对美元构成重大压力。 该行预计，10年期美债收益率将在今年年底达到4%，随后在明年美联储大幅降息的推动下出现更大幅度的下跌。 据报道，摩根士丹利策略师团队在最新报告中预测，美元将在明年年中跌至新冠疫情期间的低位水平。 该行预计，美元指数将在未来一年内下跌约9%，跌至91附近，主要驱动因素是美联储的降息周期和经济放缓。 以Matthew Hornbach为首的策略师团队在5月31日的研究报告中指出： "我们认为利率和货币市场已经开启了可持续的重大趋势——在经历了两年的宽幅区间震荡交易后，美元将大幅走低，收益率曲线将显著变陡。" 大摩还在报告中表示，欧元、日元、瑞郎将成为美元走软的最大受益者。 摩根士丹利策略师则认为，美元走弱的最大受益者将是欧元、日元和瑞士法郎，这些货币被广泛视为与 ...

华尔街巨头警告，美元指数未来一年将跌9%。 据报道，摩根士丹利策略师团队在最新报告中预测，美元将在明年年中跌至新冠疫情期间的低位水平。 该行预计，美元指数将在未来一年内下跌约9%，跌至91附近，主要驱动因素是美联储的降息周期和经济放缓。 以Matthew Hornbach为首的策略师团队在5月31日的研究报告中指出： "我们认为利率和货币市场已经开启了可持续的重大趋势——在经历了两年的宽幅区间震荡交易后，美元将大幅走低，收益率曲线将显 著变陡。" 大摩还在报告中表示，欧元、日元、瑞郎将成为美元走软的最大受益者。 周一，美元对一篮子货币走低，美元指数下跌超0.7%，最低触及98.68，似乎也印证了市场对美元前景的谨慎态度。与此同时，欧元升至一个月高 位，英镑来到1.3550，美元/日元跌至142.80附近。 值得注意的是，摩根士丹利的分析报告呼应了市场上质疑美元前景的声音。 摩根大通策略师团队在上周也向投资者表达了对美元的看空立场，转而建议投资者将资金配置到日元、欧元和澳元等货币上。 "央行降息+经济放缓"，美元将走软 根据大摩的预测，美联储将在未来实施175个基点的降息，这将对美元构成重大压力。 该行预计，1 ...

Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices rose over 1% due to a weaker dollar and concerns regarding issues at a major mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On May 23, LME three-month copper closed at $9,610 per ton, up $109.50 or 1.15% [1][2]. - Other base metals also saw price increases, with three-month aluminum up 0.31%, zinc up 0.15%, lead up 1.07%, nickel up 0.65%, and tin up 1.36% [2]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The initial decline in base metal prices was influenced by the announcement of a 50% tariff on EU goods by the U.S. [3]. - A drop in the dollar index to a three-week low made metals priced in dollars more attractive to buyers using other currencies [3]. Group 3: Supply Concerns - Concerns over the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine in the DRC, which is one of the largest copper mines globally, have contributed to rising copper prices [3]. - Recent seismic activity at the mine has led to a suspension of underground operations, potentially impacting annual production plans [3]. - LME copper inventory decreased by 8% to 164,725 tons, while COMEX copper inventory increased by 3% to 174,607 tons [3]. Group 4: Spot Market Conditions - The spot price for copper remains at a premium to LME three-month prices, indicating tightening immediate supply, with the price difference reported at $32 per ton [4].

Core Insights - Concerns over U.S. fiscal policy and a weakening dollar are driving gold prices up, potentially leading to the largest weekly gain in over a month [1] - The gold market is experiencing a net outflow, reaching the highest level since 2013, raising questions about future price trends [1] Group 1 - The increase in gold prices is attributed to U.S. fiscal worries and a declining dollar [1] - Gold is on track for its largest weekly gain in more than a month [1] - The market has seen a net outflow that is the highest since 2013 [1] Group 2 - Future price trends of gold remain uncertain amid these developments [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The gold price rebounded strongly this week due to factors such as Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and fiscal concerns triggered by Trump's tax - cut bill. In the medium - to - long - term, the gold price is supported by safe - haven demand and a weaker US dollar, while the silver price follows the gold price but is relatively soft due to economic uncertainties, yet its demand remains resilient [7]. - For the outlook, the previously released CPI and PPI data suggest potential Fed rate cuts this year, but tariff policy uncertainties and the US debt problem may make the global de - dollarization trend persist. Gold investment demand is solid, and in the case of silver, although the price is affected by gold, the silver - gold ratio has moved up [7]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Highlights - **Market Drivers**: The gold price rebounded due to factors like Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating, tensions in the Middle East, and fiscal concerns from Trump's tax - cut bill. The downgraded dollar credit rating and potential future debt increases provide long - term support for the gold price. However, the strong US labor market led to a short - term strengthening of the dollar, suppressing the gold price. The silver price followed the gold price but was relatively soft, and its demand remains resilient [7]. - **Market Outlook**: In the medium - to - long - term, the gold price is supported by safe - haven demand and a weaker dollar. The silver price is affected by the gold price, and the silver - gold ratio has moved up due to economic uncertainties [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movements**: As of May 23, 2025, COMEX gold was at $3324.7 per ounce, up 4.30% week - on - week; Shanghai gold futures were at 780.10 yuan per gram, up 3.76%. COMEX silver was at $33.38 per ounce, up 3.16%; Shanghai silver futures were at 8263 yuan per kilogram, up 1.95% [10]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of May 22, 2025, the SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 0.44% to 923.89 tons, while the SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 0.55% to 14132.66 tons [16]. - **COMEX Positions**: As of May 13, 2025, COMEX gold total positions decreased by 2.56% to 440842 contracts, and net positions decreased by 0.79% to 161209 contracts. COMEX silver total positions decreased by 1.43% to 138262 contracts, and net positions decreased by 3.04% to 47754 contracts [19]. - **Basis Changes**: As of May 23, 2025, the gold basis was - 4.38 yuan per gram, down 87.98% week - on - week, and the silver basis was - 19 yuan per kilogram, up 42.42% [23]. - **Inventory Changes**: COMEX and Shanghai gold and silver inventories showed mixed changes [24]. 3. Industry Situation - **Silver Industry**: As of the end of March 2025, China's silver import volume decreased. The year - on - year growth rate of downstream integrated circuit production slowed down, and the overall silver supply - demand was in a tight - balance state [34][36]. - **Gold Industry**: This week, the gold recycling price and jewelry price continued to rise, and the gold investment demand increased month - on - month [41][47]. 4. Macro and Options - **Macro Data**: This week, the US dollar index fluctuated downward, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased significantly. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread widened, the CBOE gold volatility rebounded, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio decreased [50][55].

黄金本周涨幅有望超过3% 金十数据5月23日讯，在美元走软以及对美国财政和经济前景的担忧的支撑下，黄金本周涨幅有望超过 3%。德国商业银行研究部大宗商品分析师芭芭拉•兰布雷希特表示："黄金再次显示出强势，因为在政 治不确定的时期，黄金的需求尤其旺盛，还有一个原因是美元等其他被认为是避险资产的资产目前正面 临压力。" ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently facing significant challenges as prices have fallen below $3,200 per ounce, but some analysts remain optimistic about its future potential in the complex economic environment [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Gold prices have recently dropped significantly, reaching a five-week low due to improved market sentiment following trade negotiations between major economies [3][4]. - The U.S. government's announcement to reduce tariffs on imports from Asian countries within 90 days has led to a shift in investor risk appetite, moving funds from safe-haven assets like gold to riskier assets [3][4]. Group 2: Analyst Insights - George Milling-Stanley, Chief Gold Strategist at State Street Global Advisors, maintains a bullish outlook on gold despite short-term price fluctuations, citing ongoing economic uncertainties and inflation risks [3][4]. - The dollar index has risen above 100, but its volatility indicates a lack of strong market confidence in the dollar, which could benefit gold prices [4]. Group 3: Economic Predictions - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on monetary policy, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts later in the year, may create favorable conditions for gold as inflation rises and economic growth slows [4][5]. - There is growing concern among investors about a possible recession in the U.S., which reinforces the demand for gold as a protective asset against economic instability [5][6]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The unique protective attributes of gold, such as its role in hedging against high inflation and geopolitical uncertainties, are expected to continue attracting investors, providing solid support for its price [5][6]. - As uncertainties in the global economic and political landscape persist, gold is anticipated to regain upward momentum, showcasing its significant upside potential [6].