Core Viewpoint - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July showed only 73,000 jobs added, significantly below the expected 104,000, officially labeling the economy as "recession" [1] - The data for May and June was substantially revised down, raising suspicions about previous data embellishment [1] Group 1 - July non-farm payrolls were 73,000, falling short of the 104,000 forecast [1] - The downward revision of May and June data has led to skepticism regarding the accuracy of prior employment reports [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - The gold market experienced a strong rebound, with spot gold prices surpassing $3360 per ounce, marking a daily increase of 2.22% [1] - Weak U.S. economic data released on August 1 led to a significant decline in the dollar and risk assets, raising market expectations for interest rate cuts [1] - Concerns about a U.S. economic recession have resurfaced, with the probability of a rate cut in September rising from 48% to 80%, and nearly 100% for October [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - July non-farm payroll data showed an increase of only 73,000 jobs, falling short of the expected 104,000, with prior months' data significantly revised down [1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, higher than the previous month's 4.1% [1] - The ISM manufacturing index for July dropped to 48, indicating the fastest contraction in nine months, while the University of Michigan consumer confidence index also fell below expectations [1] Group 3: Gold Mining Companies Performance - Several gold mining companies reported strong performance in the first half of the year, with profit growth exceeding market expectations [3] - Five companies are expected to see profit growth between 40% and 65%, while three companies may experience growth between 84% and 191% [3] - The increase in profits is attributed to rising gold prices and increased production, leading to a positive cycle of growth for gold stocks [3] Group 4: Valuation and Investment Potential - As of June 30, major gold mining companies had an average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of only 12.5 times, compared to a historical average of about 20 times [3] - This indicates that gold stocks still possess high value and significant potential for valuation recovery, warranting close attention from investors [3]

Market Overview - International gold prices saw a significant increase on August 1, closing at $3,348.53 per ounce after reaching a high of $3,355.09 [1] Economic Data - The U.S. unemployment rate for July was reported at 4.2%, matching market expectations, while the previous month's rate was 4.1% [2] - The seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls for July added 73,000 jobs, falling short of the expected 110,000, with prior months' figures revised down significantly from 147,000 to 14,000 [2] - Average hourly wages increased by 3.9% year-over-year, surpassing the expected 3.8%, and month-over-month wages rose by 0.3%, aligning with expectations [2] Economic Outlook - Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi warned that the U.S. economy is on the brink of recession, citing stagnation in consumer spending and contraction in construction and manufacturing sectors [4] - The low unemployment rate is attributed to stagnant labor growth and a decrease in immigrant labor, leading to a decline in labor force participation [4] - The current job market is experiencing a freeze in hiring and a reduction in average working hours, indicating increasing employment pressures [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Stephen Miran from the White House suggested the need for a "new perspective" on economic statistics, following President Trump's claims of manipulated employment data [5] - Federal Reserve officials, including Williams, noted that the labor market remains robust despite the disappointing non-farm payroll data, with a cautious stance on potential interest rate cuts [6][7] - The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in September is at 10.9%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut is at 89.1% [8] Gold Market Dynamics - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, reported a decrease in holdings by 1.43 tons, bringing the total to 953.08 tons [7] - Gold prices reacted positively to the weak employment data, with a notable rise following the release of the non-farm payroll report [11]

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley reports a significant downward revision of 258,000 jobs, the largest since 1979, which is 4-5 times the normal adjustment range [1][2][5] - The analysis indicates that current employment data holds more predictive power regarding economic trends than historical revisions, maintaining the expectation of no interest rate cuts until 2025 [1][9] Employment Data Revision - The July employment report revealed unexpected large downward revisions for the previous two months: June's non-farm employment was revised from 147,000 to only 14,000, a reduction of 133,000; May's data was adjusted from 144,000 to 19,000, a drop of 125,000, totaling a net revision of 258,000 [2][3] - Historically, from March 1979 to July 2025, the average net revision has been an upward adjustment of 1,200 jobs, making this downward revision the largest in 46 years when excluding the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic [3] Statistical Analysis - The average absolute value of historical revisions is 56,000 jobs, with a standard deviation of 61,000; thus, the 258,000 job revision is statistically significant and considered an outlier [5] - Using a Probit regression model, Morgan Stanley found that while the large downward revision correlates with an increased recession probability, the effect is limited, raising the likelihood of recession by only 9 percentage points [9] Current Employment Signals - The July report showed an addition of 73,000 jobs, which is deemed more critical than the previous downward revisions; the current employment data is viewed as a stronger indicator of economic health [9] - Other indicators from the July report, such as moderate wage growth, slight increases in hours worked, and low unemployment rates, suggest that these current signals are more relevant than the historical downward adjustments [9] - Despite acknowledging that the downward revisions indicate a faster-than-expected slowdown in labor demand, Morgan Stanley maintains its forecast of no interest rate cuts through 2025, suggesting that recession risks remain elevated but not at a level that would alter the overall economic outlook [9]

美国关税措施也对美股造成压力，新关税税率介于10%至41%之间。最新关税措施令美国对全球进口商 品的平均税率升至15%，为20世纪30年代以来最高水平。降息预期急剧变动 过去一周美股波动率大幅提升，经济数据也引发美联储降息预期的动荡。 21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 随着支撑美股上涨的美国经济根基遭遇冲击，美股市场避险情绪急剧升温。 过去一周，美股三大指数均下跌，标普500指数累计下跌2.4%，创5月23日以来最差表现；道指下跌 2.9%，为4月4日以来最差一周；纳指下跌2.2%。 美国就业市场的疲软令交易员对美联储9月降息的押注急剧上升，从早些时候的40%跃升至90%。芝商 所美联储观察工具显示，美联储有可能会"三连降"：分别在9月、10月和12月会议上降息25个基点。 据央视新闻报道，7月30日，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率 目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间不变，这是今年美联储连续第五次决定维持利率不变。 在利率决议后的新闻发布会上，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，现在就断言美联储是否会在9月下调联邦基金 利率还为时过早，美联储尚未就9月利率做出任何决定，"将在下次议息会议前夕 ...

Core Viewpoint - Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi warns that the US economy is on the brink of recession due to a series of weak economic data and stagnation in consumer spending [1] Economic Indicators - Recent indicators show economic stagnation, with consumer spending at a standstill and declines in construction and manufacturing sectors [1] - Employment is expected to weaken, with signs of a significant freeze in hiring and a reduction in average working hours [1] Inflation and Policy Impact - High inflation complicates potential policy support from the Federal Reserve, impacting overall economic stability [1] - Zandi attributes much of the current economic slowdown to policy choices in Washington, including tariffs that erode corporate profits and household purchasing power [1] Labor Market Dynamics - The unemployment rate remains low primarily due to stagnant labor growth, a decrease in immigrant labor, and a declining labor participation rate [1] - The reduction in immigration limits the overall growth potential of the economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in July reflects internal divisions and external pressures, raising concerns about potential impacts on financial markets, government debt, and economic stability [1][4]. Financial Market Risks - Delayed interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could exacerbate risks in the U.S. financial markets, as high rates increase corporate financing costs and compress profit margins, leading to investor concerns about corporate earnings and economic growth [1][2]. - Following the Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged, market expectations for a September rate cut dropped below 50%, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [1]. Government Debt Pressure - The ongoing high-interest environment could increase the U.S. government's debt burden, as rising interest rates lead to higher debt servicing costs, particularly in light of recent fiscal policies that may further inflate the deficit [3]. Economic Stagnation Risks - The Fed's delay in rate cuts may heighten the risk of "stagflation" in the U.S. economy, with recent employment data indicating a significant slowdown in job growth, which could lead to a potential recession if conditions do not improve [4]. - The labor market is showing signs of deterioration, with July's non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs, well below the expected 110,000, reflecting increased corporate caution [4].

Group 1 - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a downturn, with major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, Dogecoin, and BNB dropping over 3%, and Dogecoin seeing a 19% decline over the past week [2] - Over the past 24 hours, more than 110,000 traders have been liquidated in the cryptocurrency market, with a total liquidation amount of $369 million, including $310 million from long positions and $58.17 million from short positions [2] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July significantly underperformed expectations, indicating a rapid deterioration in the labor market, which has led traders to increase bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [2] Group 2 - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve's subsequent easing monetary policy have risen sharply due to growing concerns about a U.S. economic recession, resulting in heightened risk aversion in the market [2]

熊园、刘新宇（熊园 系国盛证券首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事） 核心观点：美国7月非农就业低于预期，前两个月数据大幅下修至极低水平（2020年以来单月下修超过10万的情况已累计出现过15次），引发市场衰退预 期和降息预期明显升温，最新9月降息概率已超8成。综合看，本次下修更有可能是一次性调整，尚不足以证明美国已陷入衰退；短期看，预计海外市场将 延续risk-off模式，若9-10月公布的非农数据明显反弹，Q4有望重新切换至risk-on。 1、美国7月新增非农就业7.3万，低于预期值11万；6月数据由14.7万下修至1.4万，5月数据由14.4万下修至1.9万，两月合计下修25.8万。失业率4.2%，符 合预期，略高于前值4.1%。平均时薪环比0.3%，与预期和过去12个月均值持平，高于前值0.2%。 2、非农公布后，美股大跌、黄金大涨，美联储降息预期明显上调。利率期货隐含的9月降息概率从40%升至87%，年内降息次数从1.3次升至2.4次，即市 场从预期年内大概率只降息1次变为至少降息2次。 3、非农大幅下修原因：自2020年以来，非农数据的修正幅度相较之前明显扩大，单月下修超过10万的情况已累计出 ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经上海8月3日电（葛佳明）本周（7月28日-8月1日），全球风险资产受美联储7月议息会议、美国通胀和就业数据影响而大 幅波动，全球各国股市多数承压下挫。美元指数一度大幅上行并重回100整数关口，现货黄金一度因美元走强而承压下跌，后因避 险情绪升温短线走强。 美股方面，美国7月非农新增就业低于预期，前两个月的数据合计大幅下修25.8万，引发市场对美国经济衰退担忧和美联储降息预 期升温，美股三大股指均大幅下挫， 标普500指数本周累计下跌2.36%；道琼斯工业平均指数本周累跌2.92%；纳斯达克指数本周 累跌2.17%；罗素2000指数本周累跌4.17%；恐慌指数VIX本周累计上涨36.70%。 欧股方面，欧洲各国股指多数下挫。欧洲STOXX 600指数本周累计下跌2.57%，德国DAX 30指数本周累计下跌3.27%，法国CAC 40指数本周累跌3.69%，英国富时100指数本周累跌0.57%。 亚太股市方面，日本央行维持政策利率0.5%不变，并大幅上调2025财年通胀预期0.6个百分点至2.7%，日本央行议息声明"偏鹰"但 日本央行行长表态"偏鸽"，日经225指数全周累计下挫1.58%， ...