福尔曼解释道，关税在政治上相对不受欢迎。"目前美国政治辩论的核心经济问题是价格承受能力，也 就是物价水平，而关税显然会对此产生影响。" 格陵兰岛问题会成为新一轮贸易战的催化剂吗？在新加坡国立大学东亚研究所的研讨会上，奥巴马政府 时期总统首席经济学家和白宫经济顾问委员会主席、哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院教授福尔曼（Jason Furman）在回答第一财经记者提问时表示，在（该事件发生之前）的一周前，他大致认为，到2026年 底，美国的关税水平很可能会比开始时低。 而对于"特朗普总统是否总会退缩（TACO）"这一问题，他表示："总的来说，特朗普总统取消威胁、增 加关税豁免的案例比收紧关税的案例要多。" 【如何看"TACO"？#学者称特朗普取消威胁比收紧要多# | 全球洞见】#学者称美国通胀形势不明朗 #2026年初，资本市场因特朗普政府掀起的"夺取格陵兰岛"事件遭遇首只"黑天鹅"。 当地时间1月21日，事件再次反转。美国总统特朗普称，暂时不会按原定计划向反对美国得到格陵兰岛 的欧洲8国加征关税。 新加坡国立大学东亚研究所所长席睿德（Alfred Schipke）和福尔曼等人共同撰写的最新一期《政策评 论》报告也显示，美 ...

申万宏源宏观 深度专题 | 美国通胀风险有多大？——2026年美国通胀展望（申万宏观·赵伟团队） 原创 阅读全文 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that U.S. inflation may exhibit a "high then low" characteristic in 2026, with the first half being influenced by tariff transmission and tax cuts, and the second half potentially experiencing a deflationary trend [1][5]. Group 1: Tariff Effects on Inflation - Since the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs," the risk of re-inflation in the U.S. has been manageable, and it has not become a major issue for monetary policy or capital markets [2]. - The inflation effect of tariffs has been systematically lower than expected, with the core inflation driven mainly by core goods while core services continue to cool down [2]. - As of October 2025, the effective tariff rate in the U.S. was only 12.4%, below the theoretical rate of 15.7%, indicating limited room for tariff increases due to various factors [3]. Group 2: Cost Accounting of Tariffs - Companies have been absorbing more tariff costs, which has helped keep inflation pressures manageable. As of September 2025, exporters, importers, and consumers bore 6%, 37%, and 57% of the tariff costs, respectively [4]. - The uncertainty of tariff policies and weakening domestic demand in the U.S. have constrained price increases, with companies delaying price hikes due to excess imports [4]. - By the fourth quarter of 2025, the momentum for companies to pass on tariff costs has increased, with expectations for further transmission in 2026 [4]. Group 3: Future Inflation Risks - The report predicts that if the tariff transmission rate approaches 70%, inflation may show stronger "stickiness," with core PCE year-on-year expected to be 2.8%, 2.6%, and 2.5% under different transmission rate scenarios of 90%, 70%, and 50% respectively by the end of 2026 [5]. - Potential risks beyond tariffs include cyclical and metal inflation on the upside, and productivity improvements and tariff exemptions on the downside [5]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is closely linked to inflation risks, with expectations of a pause in rate cuts in the first half of 2026, followed by 1-2 rate cuts in the second half as deflation begins [5].

Group 1 - The core inflation effect of tariffs in the U.S. has been systematically lower than expected since the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" [1][6] - As of October 2025, the effective tariff rate in the U.S. is 12.4%, which is below the theoretical rate of 15.7% [2][44] - The inflation effect of tariffs is not immediate but follows a stepwise transmission path, with recent months showing stagnation in tariff transmission progress [1][37] Group 2 - By September 2025, exporters, importers, and consumers bear 6%, 37%, and 57% of the tariff costs respectively, indicating that consumers are increasingly absorbing these costs [3][90] - The initial burden of tariffs was primarily on businesses due to high uncertainty in tariff policies and weakening domestic demand [3][108] - The "excess imports" accumulated by U.S. businesses have delayed price increases, with a significant shift expected in Q4 2025 and into 2026 [3][90] Group 3 - Inflation in the U.S. is expected to exhibit a "high first, low later" characteristic in 2026, with potential risks from both upward and downward pressures [4][6] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is closely linked to inflation risks, with expectations of a pause in rate cuts in the first half of 2026 [4][6] - The transmission rate of tariffs could significantly influence inflation, with predictions for core PCE inflation at 2.8%, 2.6%, and 2.5% depending on the transmission rate [4][6]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：中信证券研究 文|明明 王楠茜 美国12月CPI同比增速降至2.7%，与市场预期一致，核心CPI同比增速为2.6%，略低于市场预期2.7%， 核心CPI环比增速为0.2%，低于市场预期0.3%。整体而言，虽然美国食品与能源项通胀短期仍存在扰 动，但在当前美国就业偏弱运行、关税影响或逐步下降的背景下，预计未来美国通胀进一步上行的压力 可控。 ▍美国12月CPI同比增速降至2.7%，与预期一致，核心CPI同比增速为2.6%，略低于预期。 12月美国未经季节调整的CPI同比增速与11月前值持平为2.7%，符合市场预期。未经季节调整的核心 CPI同比增速为2.6%，与11月前值2.6%一致，低于预期2.7%。CPI环比增长0.3%，与9月前值和市场预期 一致，核心CPI环比增速为0.2%，与9月前值一致（10月、11月CPI环比数据因政府停摆空缺），低于市 场预期0.3%。 ▍12月美国食品项通胀环比增速为0.7%，关税、农产品供给短缺等因素推动美国食品价格上涨。 12月家庭食品环比增速从9月的0.3%上升至0.7%，非家用食品环比增速从 ...

Core Viewpoint - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair has taken a significant turn, with President Trump expressing a preference for Kevin Hassett to remain as the Director of the National Economic Council, rather than moving to the Fed [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Chair Selection - Kevin Hassett was previously considered a strong candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve Chair, but Trump's recent comments suggest he may prefer Hassett to stay in his current role [2][5]. - Following Trump's remarks, Kevin Walsh has emerged as the leading candidate for the Fed Chair position, with a probability of 59% for his appointment, while Hassett's probability has dropped to 14% [3]. - The selection process is being led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has narrowed the candidates down to four, with an announcement expected before or after the upcoming Davos Forum [3][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The dollar index rebounded after Trump's comments, while U.S. stock indices collectively fell, reversing earlier gains [1][3]. - Spot gold and silver prices experienced sharp declines, with gold dropping by as much as 1.72% and silver falling by 6% during the trading day [3]. Group 3: Internal Fed Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is currently facing internal divisions regarding monetary policy, with some officials advocating for further rate cuts to support a weak job market, while others suggest maintaining the current rates due to persistent inflation above the 2% target [6]. - The new Fed Chair is expected to seek further rate cuts, aligning with Trump's preferences, but may face challenges in building consensus within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [6].

芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比周四在接受采访时表示："我们面临的最重要问题是必须将通胀率 拉回至2%。"他提到，其辖区内的众多企业都对成本上升和可负担能力下降表示担忧。 智通财经1月16日讯（编辑 卞纯）周四，多位美联储官员发表讲话，暗示愿意在即将召开的货币政策会 议上暂停降息，理由是劳动力市场似乎已趋于稳定，且通胀压力仍在持续。 近期在政策辩论中立场存在分歧的五位地区联储银行行长均表示，美联储目前处于有利位置，应等待更 多数据出炉后再采取进一步行动。 市场普遍预计，美联储将在1月27日至28日的会议上维持基准利率不变，此前该央行已在过去三次会议 上连续降息。 过去一周发布的经济数据显示，美国12月失业率微降至4.4%，终结了此前数月连续上升的态势；而通 胀数据则表明，美联储偏好的通胀指标可能仍接近3%——较其2%的目标水平高出整整1个百分点。 亚特兰大联邦储备主席博斯蒂克周四在一场活动中表示："我们无需急于采取任何行动。我 们需要确保维持限制性货币政策立场，因为当前通胀率仍然过高，高物价正给美国民众带来 压力。" 许多美联储政策制定者在讲话中都表达了对美联储主席鲍威尔的支持，并强调了维护央行独立性的重要 性。 美国 ...

ATFX汇评：美联储2026年首份褐皮书发布，内容中性偏乐观。褐皮书中提到：在12个联邦储备区中，8个经济活动以略有或温和的速度增长，其中3个 地区报告变化不大，1个地区报告略有下降。上一份褐皮书（2025年11月末发布）中提到：自上次报告以来，经济活动几乎没有变化，两个地区温和下 滑，一个地区温和增长。 比较两份褐皮书内容看，2025年11月末至本月上旬，美国的宏观经济有明显的复苏迹象。12个储备区中8个区都实现增长，这本身就意味着美国经济正在 从10~11月份的政府停摆阴影中恢复过来。经济恢复后，美联储降息的紧迫性会有所降低，逻辑上利空美元指数。 特朗普激进的移民政策和人工智能普及后对基础工作岗位的替代，是导致美国劳动力市场在2025年5月份后断崖式下降的根本原因。这两个因素的影响性 彻底消失之前，美国的就业市场难言乐观。不过，能够保持一段时间的"基本不变"，对于本就糟糕的局面来说，算是好消息。 ▲ATFX图 通胀方面，企业预计价格上涨有所放缓，但价格将保持高位。 通胀数据是制约美联储降息的关键因素。一旦降息幅度过大，商品需要迅速升高，美国的 物价指数将重新进入失控局面。历史数据看，美国的通胀持续下降的概 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the inflation trends in the United States for 2025 and the potential risks for 2026, emphasizing that inflation may not be a precondition for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve but rather a response to economic conditions, with significant risks stemming from additional fiscal stimulus [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections 2025 US Inflation Overview - In 2025, the US inflation showed a reverse N-shaped trend with CPI year-on-year rates of 2.7%, 2.4%, 2.9%, and 2.7%, while core CPI rates were 3.1%, 2.8%, 3.1%, and 2.6% respectively [2][8]. - The CPI components include food (approximately 13.6% weight), energy (6.4%), core goods (19.3%), rent (33.7%), and super core services (27%) [8][11]. - The moderate recovery in CPI during Q2 and Q3 was primarily driven by core goods and energy, influenced by tariffs and base effects [11][12]. - The impact of tariffs on inflation was manageable, with consumers potentially bearing only 1/3 to 50% of the tariff costs due to businesses absorbing some of the costs [11][12]. - The decline in Q4 was attributed to technical issues from government shutdowns affecting data collection and a potential peak in tariff price impacts, with many tariff-affected goods seeing price declines [12][11]. 2026 US Inflation Risks - The inflation in 2026 is viewed as a potential economic feedback rather than a precursor to interest rate cuts, with the main risk being additional fiscal stimulus [3][4]. - Excluding tariff impacts, CPI year-on-year is slightly above 2%, indicating limited potential for core goods inflation to rise further [3][13]. - The likelihood of food and energy inflation rebounding is low, supported by measures taken by the Trump administration to lower food prices and a stable oil price environment [3][13]. - The main inflationary pressures will depend on the recovery of the job market, particularly in super core services and housing inflation [17][19]. - The most significant risk arises from potential fiscal stimulus driven by midterm election pressures, with Trump possibly proposing additional measures to gain voter support if current non-spending measures fail [4][19]. December 2025 CPI Data Commentary - The December CPI data showed a slight miss against expectations, with CPI year-on-year at 2.7% and core CPI at 2.6%, both aligning with Bloomberg's forecasts [22]. - Food prices contributed positively to CPI, while energy prices had a mixed impact, with gasoline prices declining [26][29]. - Core goods prices remained stable, with notable declines in prices for used cars and tariff-affected items like furniture and appliances [28][29].

Group 1: Inflation Trends in 2025 - In 2025, the US CPI showed a "倒 N" shape trend with year-on-year rates of 2.7%, 2.4%, 2.9%, and 2.7% across the four quarters[1] - Core CPI year-on-year rates were 3.1%, 2.8%, 3.1%, and 2.6% for the same period[1] - The increase in CPI during Q2 and Q3 was primarily driven by core goods and energy, influenced by tariffs and base effects[1] Group 2: Factors Affecting Inflation in 2026 - The main risk for inflation in 2026 is additional fiscal stimulus rather than a precursor to interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[2] - Excluding tariff impacts (approximately 0.5%), CPI year-on-year is slightly above 2%[2] - The probability of food and energy inflation rebounding is low, with measures taken to lower food prices and oil prices remaining stable due to oversupply[2] Group 3: Employment and Economic Feedback - The inflation trend is largely dependent on the recovery of the job market, particularly in super core services and housing inflation[2] - If non-farm employment exceeds 100,000 per month, it may indicate an overheating job market, which could lead to inflationary pressures[2] Group 4: Political Influences on Fiscal Policy - The greatest inflationary risk stems from potential fiscal stimulus driven by midterm election pressures, particularly concerning the cost of living crisis[3] - Trump may propose additional fiscal measures, such as direct payments funded by tariff revenues, to gain voter support if current non-spending measures fail[3] - The timeline for potential fiscal stimulus is likely around mid-year, coinciding with the primary elections from March to September[3]