Macroeconomic Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to restart interest rate cuts, with inflation trends not hindering this decision[2] - Recent data shows declines in the FHFA and S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices, along with a decrease in rental prices[2] - The Manheim used car wholesale price index has also shown a month-on-month decline, indicating slower inflationary pressures on core goods[2] Labor Market Analysis - Employment data has shown a significant slowdown, with average hourly wages in sectors heavily reliant on immigrant labor, such as leisure and healthcare, declining since April[2] - The tightening of immigration policies has had a limited impact on the supply side of the U.S. labor market[2] Asset Price Trends - Anticipation of early interest rate cuts may lead to a steeper U.S. Treasury yield curve[3] - The U.S. dollar experienced a slight strengthening in mid-August, primarily due to reduced uncertainty around tariff policies rather than interest rate differentials[3] - The narrowing interest rate spread between the U.S. dollar and the euro suggests medium-term downward pressure on the dollar index[3] Risk Factors - A stronger-than-expected recovery in the labor market, coupled with persistent inflation above expectations, could delay the Fed's rate-cutting schedule[4]

Group 1 - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting suggests a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, indicating a cautious approach to economic conditions [2][3] - The U.S. labor market shows signs of balance with a July unemployment rate of 4.2%, but there are concerns about a possible future surge in layoffs if labor demand weakens further [2][3] - Tariffs are acknowledged to have a temporary impact on inflation, with Powell stating that the price increases from tariffs are unlikely to lead to a persistent inflationary spiral due to a relatively loose labor market [2][3] Group 2 - The urgency for interest rate cuts is increasing as the U.S. economy faces significant downward pressure, with a reported GDP contraction of 0.5% in Q1 2025 and a slowdown in growth to 2% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [4][5] - Employment indicators show a troubling trend, with non-farm payrolls being revised downwards and a rising unemployment rate, suggesting that the labor market may not be as strong as the unemployment rate indicates [5][6] Group 3 - Inflation pressures in the U.S. are persistent, with both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) showing upward trends, with core CPI and core PCE rising to 3.1% and 2.9% respectively [7][8] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to worsen, with estimates suggesting that Trump's tariff policies could raise inflation rates by 1.5% to 2% [8][9] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, influenced by historical lessons from the 1970s and 1980s regarding inflation control [10][11] - The recent fiscal measures under Trump's administration are projected to increase the federal deficit significantly, which may limit the Fed's ability to implement aggressive rate cuts [11][12] Group 5 - Trump's ongoing efforts to reshape the Federal Reserve's board could threaten the independence of the central bank, potentially impacting future monetary policy decisions [12][13] - The current political climate suggests that if Trump successfully consolidates control over the Fed, it may lead to significant shifts in monetary policy direction [12][13]

Macro News - The main gold futures contract in Shanghai reported a price of 799.00 CNY per gram, with an increase of 1.88% [1] - The opening price for the day was 786.10 CNY per gram, with a high of 802.38 CNY and a low of 785.70 CNY [1] - The U.S. core PCE price index for July rose by 2.9% year-on-year, marking the highest level since February 2025, aligning with market expectations [1] - The month-on-month increase was 0.3%, consistent with both expectations and previous values [1] Institutional Perspectives - Gold prices surged in the previous Friday's night session, with the main gold futures contract closing at 791.28 CNY per gram, up by 0.90% [1] - Silver futures also saw an increase, closing at 9,566 CNY per kilogram, up by 1.93% [1] - A U.S. appeals court ruled that most of the global tariff policies implemented by former President Trump were illegal, which could help control U.S. inflation and create conditions for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The overall PCE index rose by 2.6% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, meeting market expectations and marking the highest increase in four months [1] - Despite the news slightly lowering expectations for a Fed rate cut, the market still largely anticipates a rate cut in September [1] - The U.S. dollar index fell to 97.85, with potential for further declines, which could provide upward momentum for gold prices [1] - The daily chart for gold shows a breakout from a consolidation phase, indicating the formation of a new upward trend [1]

Group 1 - The latest inflation data in the U.S. indicates a profound structural divergence in price pressures within the economy, presenting unprecedented challenges for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1][2] - In July, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index accelerated at an annualized rate of 4.4%, marking the third consecutive month of strong momentum, particularly driven by persistent inflation in the service sector [1][2] - In contrast, durable goods prices experienced a monthly decline with an annualized decrease of 1.3%, reflecting the impact of tariffs and consumer resistance to high prices [1][2] Group 2 - The divergence in inflation dynamics highlights the complexity of the U.S. inflation landscape, with service sector inflation, especially in non-housing services, becoming a primary driver of overall price increases [1][2] - The characteristics of the service sector make it more challenging to suppress prices, as many essential services lack transparent price comparison mechanisms and face insufficient market competition [1][2] - Conversely, the durable goods market is experiencing different dynamics, with consumers becoming more price-sensitive due to tightened monetary policy, leading businesses to adopt discounting and promotional strategies to maintain sales [1][2] Group 3 - Despite tariffs being seen as a potential factor for rising goods prices, U.S. companies have accumulated substantial profits over the past few years, providing them with ample capacity to absorb tariff costs, thereby limiting the transmission effect of tariffs on final consumer prices [2] - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma as its 2% inflation target is continuously challenged by persistent core service sector inflation, with the core PCE price index's annualized growth rate reaching 3.3% in July, significantly above target levels [2] - Overall PCE and core PCE year-on-year growth rates have accelerated for three consecutive months, indicating a worsening inflation situation despite a decline in energy prices, which has had limited impact on core inflation [2] Group 4 - The structural divergence in inflation necessitates the Federal Reserve to weigh multiple factors in policy formulation, as excessive focus on declining goods prices may underestimate the stubbornness of service sector inflation, potentially leading to uncontrolled inflation expectations [2] - Conversely, overly tightening measures to curb service sector inflation could unnecessarily impact the goods sector and overall economic growth [2] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve will continue to closely monitor service sector inflation developments and may maintain high interest rates for an extended period, with the possibility of further rate hikes to ensure inflation returns to target [3]

Group 1: Tariff Policy - The actual average import tariff rate in the U.S. increased by only 6.6 percentage points compared to the end of 2024, which is significantly lower than market expectations [1] - The changes in the U.S. import structure and the low proportion of taxable goods are the main reasons for the lower-than-expected tariff collection [1] - In the second half of the year, the average import tariff rate is expected to rise further with the implementation of new tariff rates and gradual enforcement of industry tariffs [1] Group 2: Impact on U.S. Enterprises - U.S. enterprises are currently bearing approximately 63% of the tariff costs, while consumers are responsible for less than 40% [2] - The transmission of tariff costs to enterprises has been slow, but as inventory is gradually consumed and trade policy uncertainty decreases, enterprises are likely to continue raising prices [2] - However, due to increased consumer sensitivity to prices, enterprises may still need to absorb a significant portion of the tariff costs [2] Group 3: Consumer Inflation - The dependence on imports is high for categories such as auto parts, new cars, clothing, and furniture [3] - If the average import tariff rate in the U.S. rises by 10% within the year, it could push the PCE year-on-year growth rate to 3.1% and the core PCE year-on-year growth rate to 3.4%, assuming stable demand [3] - A significant decline in demand could help alleviate inflationary pressures in the U.S. [3]

Core Viewpoint - The actual tariff implementation in the US during the first half of the year was less than expected, leading to a moderate rise in inflation. The average import tariff rate is expected to increase in the second half, potentially accelerating price increases by companies, which may result in a "slow heating" inflation scenario in the US [1][3]. Tariff Policy - As of June, the actual average import tariff rate in the US increased by only 6.6 percentage points compared to the end of 2024, which is significantly below market expectations. The low tariff collection is attributed to changes in import structure and a low proportion of taxable goods. The average import tariff rate is expected to rise further in the second half of the year due to the implementation of new tariff rates and gradual enforcement of industry tariffs [1][2]. Overseas Exporters - The US import price index, which reflects the dollar prices paid by importers excluding tariffs, shows no significant decline in import prices for most goods since the implementation of reciprocal tariffs in April. Although overseas exporters may lower prices due to a weaker dollar since 2025, the extent of this price reduction may be offset by the dollar's depreciation. Overall, US import costs have not shown a significant decline, and the burden of tariff costs primarily falls on US companies and consumers [2]. US Companies - As of June, US companies bore approximately 63% of the tariff costs, while consumers accounted for less than 40%. As inventory is gradually consumed and trade policy uncertainty decreases, companies are expected to continue raising prices. However, given the current sensitivity of consumers to prices, companies may still need to absorb a significant portion of the tariff costs [2]. Consumer Inflation - Certain goods, such as auto parts, new cars, clothing, and furniture, have a high dependency on imports. However, the transmission of tariffs to prices for new cars, clothing, personal care items, and other durable goods remains limited. If the average import tariff rate in the US rises by 10% within the year, and demand remains stable, tariffs could push the PCE year-on-year growth rate to 3.1% and the core PCE growth rate to 3.4%. Conversely, a significant drop in demand could alleviate inflationary pressures in the US [3].

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on commodity prices, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips for commodities like copper, aluminum, and gold [1][14] - There is a divergence in market opinions regarding the effects of rate cuts on commodity prices, with some believing that rate cuts indicate economic slowdown while others argue that they can stimulate economic growth and liquidity, thus supporting commodity prices [1][3] - Historical data shows that during past rate cut cycles, commodity prices often rebound after initial declines, particularly in the context of economic recovery following rate cuts [2][3] Group 2 - Since 1982, the U.S. has experienced multiple rate cut cycles, with the current cycle beginning in September 2022, resulting in a total reduction of 100 basis points [2] - The article highlights that rate cuts are typically implemented during significant economic downturns, and the pace of cuts tends to be more aggressive compared to rate hikes [2][3] - The relationship between economic performance and commodity prices is emphasized, indicating that global economic growth is a key determinant of commodity price trends [4] Group 3 - Different commodities exhibit varying sensitivities to interest rate changes, with gold being highly sensitive to real interest rates, copper reflecting economic growth expectations, and oil being influenced by both demand and supply factors [5][6] - Statistical data supports the notion that metals and industrial raw materials are more sensitive to interest rate changes compared to agricultural commodities [6] Group 4 - The article outlines the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, noting that inflation and employment data will significantly influence future rate decisions [9][11] - The current economic environment suggests a potential for further rate cuts, with market expectations indicating a possible reduction in the federal funds rate to between 3.3% and 3.5% in the near future [13][14] - The necessity for rate cuts is underscored by a weakening labor market and declining inflation, which may lead to increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to adjust its policies [14]

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Policy - The market is increasingly focused on the potential impact of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts on commodity prices, with differing opinions on the effects [1][5] - Since September of last year, the current rate cut cycle has seen a total reduction of 100 basis points, with rates adjusted from 5.25%-5.5% to 4.25%-4.5% [1][3] - The Fed's rate cuts typically occur in response to significant economic downturns, and the pace of rate cuts is generally more rapid compared to rate hikes [1][3] Group 2: Commodity Sensitivity to Interest Rates - Gold is highly sensitive to real interest rates, with rising real rates negatively impacting gold prices due to increased opportunity costs [2] - Copper is viewed as an economic barometer, with its prices affected by economic growth expectations and demand from key sectors [2] - Oil prices are influenced by a complex interplay of demand and supply factors, with rate cuts potentially supporting prices despite economic weakness [2] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Projections - The labor market in the U.S. shows signs of cooling, with non-farm employment growth slowing and unemployment remaining low, increasing the necessity for Fed rate cuts [4][7] - Inflation data indicates a moderate rebound, but overall inflation levels are expected to remain weak in the second half of the year [3][4] - Market expectations suggest that the Fed may lower rates to a range of 3.3%-3.5% in the first half of next year, indicating a potential for further cuts [4][7] Group 4: Market Reactions and Investment Strategies - The weakening labor market and ongoing inflation decline highlight the growing necessity for Fed rate cuts, which could benefit commodities sensitive to Fed policies [7][8] - The current geopolitical landscape and central bank gold purchases are expected to support gold prices in the long term, maintaining a bullish outlook [8]

【机构观点】 非农就业数据不仅证伪了关联储关于就业市场强劲的论断，显著升了9月的降息顶期。CPI数据低于市 场预期，史强化了9月降息预期。但核心CPI创2月以来新高，叠加7月 PPI也远超预期，创2月以米新 高，9月降息50基点率随之下降:目前市场普遍押注9月降息25基点，虽然威尔在全球央行年会上讲话异 常派，市场仍表现得较为谨慎。下半年美联储人概车进入降息周期、全球贸易擦缓和、全球央行持续购 金等因素均对黄金价格构成利灯。美国违胀数反复，关税带来的通胀效果尚不明确，短期抑制金价。 美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上发表重磅讲话，称风险平衡似乎正在发生变化，当前的形势 意味着，就业面临的下行风险上升。随着政策处于紧缩区域，这种风险平衡的转变可能意味着需要调整 政策立场。鲍威尔讲话后，交易员加大对美联储9月降息的押注，完全消化年底前降息两次预期。 澳新银行在给客户的报告中称，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔正确地指出了美国劳动力市场在未来一个月 可能迅速走弱的风险，这使得恢复货币宽松政策成为必要。鲍威尔的基本假设是，关税将导致一次性价 格上涨，但可能需要一段时间才能完全显现。澳新银行表示，早期数据表明关税对消费者价 ...

分析师：陶川 分析师：林彦 研究助理：武朔 海外市场点评 美元弱一定需要降息吗？ 2025 年 08 月 24 日 [Table_Author] 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100525030001 执业证号：S0100125070003 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：linyan@mszq.com 邮箱：wushuo@mszq.com ➢ 杰克逊霍尔会议后，对美联储转鸽的预期上升，美元也应声下跌。一直以来， 美货币政策的松紧都是美元定价的重要路标，但回顾历史这并不是唯一路标。 ➢ 美联储 9 月重启降息已经是市场一致预期，且目前看来落空的概率不大。但 就像我们在报告《杰克逊霍尔会议：给降息预期"踩刹车"？》中，提到了后续 降息的节奏还是取决于数据。同时我们在之前一系列的报告中，也阐明了"通胀 不是不到，是时候未到"的观点。 ➢ 那么今年年底到明年年中（基数低，且鲍威尔 5 月前还在任）美联储是否有 概率重复之前 7 次 FOMC 暂停降息的"袖手旁观"模式。而这样会不会导致美 元指数就在当前位置窄幅波动甚至明显反弹？ ➢ 今年我们在美国通胀的判断上犯了和一致预期一 ...