Group 1: U.S. Stock Market Dynamics - The U.S. stock market is experiencing significant volatility, with a rotation between technology and value stocks. Interest rate-sensitive stocks are rebounding due to expectations of rate cuts, while concerns about economic slowdown impacting corporate earnings are rising [3] - The forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 index is currently at a historically high level, reflecting market expectations for policy easing [3] Group 2: Gold Market Trends - International gold prices are showing two-way volatility, indicating market divergence in interpreting Federal Reserve policies. Traditionally, gold prices have an inverse relationship with real interest rates, but both have recently risen simultaneously, suggesting a new pricing logic for gold amid geopolitical tensions and a reshaping of the dollar system [4] - Global official gold reserves are continuously increasing, which may provide long-term support for gold prices due to structural changes in demand [4] Group 3: Cryptocurrency Market Behavior - The cryptocurrency market is exhibiting differentiated performance compared to U.S. stocks and gold. Bitcoin prices have stabilized after significant fluctuations, indicating the development of an independent price discovery mechanism in the crypto market [5] - The actual usage of decentralized finance applications is steadily increasing, potentially providing fundamental support for digital asset prices [5] Group 4: Market Uncertainties and Asset Allocation - The primary uncertainty in the market revolves around the timing and magnitude of the policy shift by the Federal Reserve. While inflationary pressures have eased, a strong labor market may limit the Fed's policy options [6] - Different asset classes exhibit varying sensitivities to policy changes, with U.S. stocks being most responsive to interest rate expectations, gold reflecting safe-haven attributes, and cryptocurrencies developing unique market logic [6] - The current market environment may lead to increased volatility, necessitating a balance between short-term trading opportunities and long-term asset allocation strategies [6]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing unprecedented volatility and uncertainty, with recent price fluctuations driven by geopolitical tensions and economic factors [1][2]. Price Trends - On June 2, international gold prices surged past the key resistance level of $3,300 per ounce, closing at $3,406 per ounce, marking a nearly 3% increase and the largest single-day gain in three weeks [1]. - Earlier in April, gold prices reached a historical high of $3,509 per ounce before dropping to $3,245 due to easing geopolitical tensions, followed by a recovery supported by central bank gold purchases and rising inflation expectations in the U.S. [1]. Market Influences - The sensitivity of gold prices is attributed to its status as a recognized safe-haven asset, closely linked to global economic conditions, including U.S. Federal Reserve policy shifts, geopolitical conflicts, and global inflation trends [2]. - Major Wall Street firms have raised their gold price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs projecting a target price of $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025, and JPMorgan predicting that gold could reach $4,000 sooner than expected [2]. Investment Trends - There is a growing trend of retail investors participating in gold investments, driven by social media discussions and investment analysis videos, leading to a surge in interest [3]. - Some investors are resorting to high-risk financing methods, such as consumer loans and credit cards, to invest in gold, which poses significant financial risks if prices decline [3]. Investment Strategies - Various investment methods for gold include physical gold (bars, coins) and gold ETFs, with the latter offering lower costs and higher liquidity [3]. - The 华夏 Gold ETF (518850) has gained attention for its strong performance, and investors can also consider ETF-linked funds for similar investment benefits [4].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's latest report indicates that the US Dollar Index (DXY) is expected to undergo a significant adjustment due to the dual pressures of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a slowdown in global economic growth, predicting a decline of approximately 9% by mid-2026, reaching a low of 91 points, the lowest since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 [1][4]. Group 1: Key Drivers - The first key driver is the shift in Federal Reserve policy, which is anticipated to push real interest rates down. Morgan Stanley forecasts that the 10-year US Treasury yield will drop to 4.0% by the end of 2025, with the Federal Reserve expected to cut rates by a cumulative 175 basis points, leading to a more significant decline in the benchmark rate range by 2026, thereby diminishing the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [4]. - The second driver is the restructuring of global trade patterns, which is reshaping the currency landscape. Policies such as tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have not only impacted market confidence but have also prompted a reassessment of the dollar's status as a reserve currency. Current data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) indicates that bearish sentiment towards the dollar has not yet reached historical extremes, suggesting further potential weakness for the dollar [4]. Group 2: Currency Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley is optimistic about three non-USD currencies: the euro is expected to rise from the current exchange rate of 1.13 to 1.25, benefiting from the European Central Bank's cautious rate cuts and improved trade conditions due to falling energy prices; the Japanese yen, a traditional safe-haven asset, may appreciate from 143 yen to 130 yen, particularly as the uncertainty from Trump’s trade policies continues to support its value; and the British pound is projected to increase from 1.35 to 1.45, driven by a relatively mild trade environment in the UK and the interest rate advantage from the current 5.25% policy rate [4]. - Additionally, JPMorgan's strategist team has also issued a bearish signal for the dollar, advising investors to short the dollar and favor currencies such as the yen, euro, and Australian dollar. During the Asian trading session, the dollar index continued its downward trend, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falling by 0.2%, indicating potential for further selling pressure if key support levels are breached [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to reduced market risk appetite, stronger dollar, and technical breakdowns, leading to significant sell-offs and volatility in the gold market [3][4][5]. Current Price Dynamics - As of May 27, 2025, international spot gold prices fell to $3,300.46 per ounce, a decrease of 1.25%, while COMEX gold futures closed at $3,299.70 per ounce, down 1.27%. This marks the second time gold has dropped below the critical psychological level of $3,300 since a significant correction on April 23 [1]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also retreated, with major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Miao seeing prices drop from approximately ¥1,022 per gram to around ¥987 per gram, with a single-day decline of up to ¥16 per gram [3]. Key Drivers of Decline - The easing of market risk appetite is driven by progress in trade negotiations between the U.S. and Europe, as well as a reduction in geopolitical tensions, prompting investors to shift from gold to riskier assets like stocks and commodities [3]. - Expectations of a less aggressive Federal Reserve and a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields have increased the opportunity cost of holding gold [3]. - A stronger dollar, influenced by Japan's stable bond market policy, has diminished the appeal of gold priced in dollars [3]. - Technical factors, including a double-top formation near $3,350, triggered stop-loss orders and forced liquidations among leveraged investors, contributing to panic selling [3][4]. Future Outlook - Short-term risks indicate that if gold prices fall below the support level of $3,280, they could further decline to $3,245 or even $3,200. A rebound would require breaking through the resistance zone of $3,330-$3,350 [5]. - Long-term support remains from global central banks' continuous gold purchases, with 2024 projected purchases reaching 1,045 tons, and the U.S. national debt surpassing $40 trillion [5]. - Institutional views are mixed, with Goldman Sachs maintaining a year-end target of $3,700, citing de-dollarization trends, while Citigroup expects gold prices to oscillate between $3,000 and $3,300, cautioning against potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy [5]. Consumer and Investor Reactions - Investor behavior shows a mix of buying on dips for gold bars or ETFs, while leveraged traders face losses due to price volatility, leading to a "gold rush" in markets like Shenzhen's Shui Bei [6]. - Some consumers express skepticism about the term "sharp decline," noting that domestic gold jewelry prices remain above ¥700 per gram and are waiting for prices to drop below ¥600 before entering the market [6].

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its S&P 500 index target, lowering the short-term forecast from 6200 to 5900 points, while maintaining a long-term optimistic outlook with a 12-month target raised to 6500 points, reflecting structural market opportunities [1][3] - The current market pricing implies optimistic expectations for economic growth, but potential risks of slowing economic and corporate earnings growth may limit valuation expansion in the coming months [3] - The adjustment in target prices indicates a reassessment of market drivers, with previous concerns over recession risks and US-China tariff disputes easing due to a recent phase one trade agreement and stronger-than-expected earnings from tech giants [3] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs emphasizes the strategic importance of the technology sector, driven by a capital expenditure cycle propelled by generative AI technology, which is expected to lead in earnings growth and cash flow generation [3] - The firm warns of uncertainties in the tariff environment by 2025, projecting that the average tariff rate on US imports from China will remain above 30%, significantly higher than the 4.3% level in 2024, which could pressure corporate profit margins [3] - The current dynamic P/E ratio of the S&P 500 has reached 21.5, at the 85th percentile over the past decade, indicating that corporate earnings growth must exceed 10% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 to alleviate valuation pressures [4]

Group 1 - The signing of the US-China trade agreement has provided a temporary boost to global markets, but underlying economic risks remain [1] - Morgan Stanley's Chief Investment Officer Wilson predicts a year-end target of 6500 points for the S&P 500, indicating a 12% upside potential, as the retreat of tariff threats allows the Federal Reserve to shift its policy focus [3] - Apollo's Chief Economist Slok observes that traders are adjusting their interest rate cut expectations from 3-4 cuts to 2, signaling a shift in market sentiment as recession fears diminish [3] Group 2 - Evercore's founder Altman warns that the current agreement is merely a "90-day high tariff suspension" and highlights that the overall tariff rate remains significantly elevated, which could lead to inflationary pressures [4] - The market is experiencing a cognitive restructuring, balancing short-term risk appetite with long-term structural challenges, as the trade agreement may temporarily boost corporate earnings but does not eliminate the risk of renewed trade tensions [4] - The agreement alters the risk pricing logic for investors, necessitating a more sophisticated warning mechanism for asset portfolios as policy uncertainty transitions from acute risks to chronic variables [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is facing a dilemma between preventing inflation caused by tariff policies and avoiding excessive tightening that could lead to an economic hard landing [3] - Market expectations indicate a potential 100 basis points rate cut by the end of the year, reflecting a significant shift in sentiment despite the Fed's current stance [3] - The PCE price index for May showed a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, slightly below expectations, while the core PCE index rose by 0.3% month-on-month, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [4] Group 2 - The trade policies of the Trump administration are creating conflicts that challenge the independence of the Federal Reserve, as tariffs raise import prices and undermine business investment confidence [5][6] - The non-farm payroll report for May indicated an addition of 177,000 jobs, surpassing expectations, but the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, highlighting ongoing economic challenges [6] Group 3 - The global capital allocation strategy is undergoing significant changes, with the dollar index facing depreciation pressure and a slowdown in dollar reserve accumulation by central banks [7] - Emerging market bonds, particularly in Asia, are attracting global capital due to higher yields and stable fundamentals, while the Shanghai Composite Index shows long-term investment value despite geopolitical risks [7] Group 4 - dbg markets has introduced three strategies to navigate the complex market environment: establishing a policy shock scenario analysis model, creating dynamic hedging portfolios, and capitalizing on regional economic disparities [8] - The platform emphasizes advanced trading technology and regulatory safeguards, providing a stable trading environment for various asset classes [8] Group 5 - The global financial system is undergoing profound restructuring, and investors are encouraged to seek certainty amid uncertainty as a guiding principle [9] - dbg markets aims to enhance service quality and trading solutions for clients in the evolving landscape of Federal Reserve policy shifts and global economic changes [9]

Macroeconomic Overview - The global economic and political landscape is complex, significantly impacting markets and international relations [1] - The US faces multiple pressures, with a decline in 2-year Treasury yields influenced by trade deficits and corporate pessimism, raising concerns about the impact of trade wars [1] - Traders expect the Federal Reserve to implement three rate cuts this year, with the first potentially in September, although investors remain worried about insufficient policy easing and uncertain market outlook [1] - Recent international trade developments include trade agreements between India and the UK, and the US and the UK, with some UK goods exempt from tariffs imposed by Trump [1] - In the energy market, OPEC+ unexpectedly increased production, leading to a drop in oil prices, with Saudi Arabia warning overproduction among member countries [1] - Political developments include Ukraine approving a mineral agreement with the US, and Oman reaching a freedom of navigation agreement with the US and Yemen [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, with expectations of no change in rates this time but potential future volatility [1] - Geopolitical tensions, including conflicts between Israel and Houthi forces, and between India and Pakistan, are also areas of concern for investors [1] US Dollar Index - The US dollar index showed a downward trend, with a high of 100.077 and a low of 99.143, closing at 99.239 [2] - The dollar index faced resistance at 99.60, and traders are advised to be cautious until a breakout occurs [2] - The index is currently in a low-level consolidation phase, with key support at 98.90 [2] Gold Market - Gold prices experienced an overall increase, reaching a high of 3434.61 and a low of 3323.14, closing at 3430.31 [4] - The price is supported by the daily line, and further upward movement is anticipated unless a significant drop occurs [4] - The market is advised to monitor the 3340-3350 range, maintaining a bullish outlook unless this range is broken [7] Euro and US Dollar Exchange Rate - The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate showed an upward trend, with a low of 1.1279 and a high of 1.1380, closing at 1.1368 [7] - The market is supported at 1.0800 for long-term positions, while short-term fluctuations are being monitored around 1.1320-1.1380 [9]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Last week, the price of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum futures AL2505 fluctuated downward, ranging from around 20,335 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 20,635 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum futures price dropped significantly and then gradually entered an oscillatory trend, with the contract price running around 2,300 - 2,427 US dollars/ton. - China's major economic data is gradually stabilizing, and the expectation of introducing more stimulus policies is increasing. The inventory of alumina continues to be at an ultra - low level, while its production capacity has increased significantly and the operating rate has decreased slightly. The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level, and the operating rate continues to rise. The national aluminum rod inventory has decreased significantly, and the inventory level is at a relatively high level in recent years. The Shanghai aluminum inventory continues to decline, and the inventory level is at a relatively low level in recent years. The LME aluminum inventory has decreased slightly, and the proportion of cancelled warrants has decreased slightly. - China will increase the tariff on US goods from 84% to 125%. At the current tariff level, US goods exported to China have no market acceptance possibility, and the impact of tariffs may weaken. Aluminum prices may mainly show a wide - range oscillatory trend. [3][5][6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Price**: Last week, the price of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum futures AL2505 fluctuated downward, ranging from around 20,335 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 20,635 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum futures price dropped significantly and then gradually entered an oscillatory trend, with the contract price running around 2,300 - 2,427 US dollars/ton. [8][12] 3.2 Spot Analysis - As of April 11, 2025, the average price of 1 electrolytic aluminum in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 19,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Foshan, Jinan, and Wuxi were 19,885 yuan/ton, 20,105 yuan/ton, 19,920 yuan/ton, and 19,885 yuan/ton respectively. As of April 11, 2025, the premium or discount of electrolytic aluminum was maintained at around a premium of 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. [15] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **Alumina Inventory**: As of April 10, 2025, the total domestic alumina inventory was 0.5 million tons, a decrease of 0.7 million tons from the previous period. The inventory in Lianyungang was 0 million tons, in Bayuquan was 0.3 million tons, and in Qingdao Port was 0.2 million tons. The total domestic inventory was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years. [21] - **Aluminum Rod Inventory**: As of April 10, 2025, the total national aluminum rod inventory was 223,800 tons, a decrease of 16,300 tons compared with the previous period. In terms of regions, the inventory in Foshan was 132,000 tons, in Wuxi was 38,500 tons, and in Nanchang was 16,500 tons. From a seasonal perspective, the national inventory was at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years. [25] 3.4 Inventory Situation - **Global Visible Inventory**: As of April 11, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 205,627 tons, a decrease of 9,447 tons from the previous week. As of April 10, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 446,325 tons, a decrease of 3,175 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 43.82%. - **Domestic Invisible Inventory**: As of April 10, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 697,000 tons, a decrease of 34,000 tons from the previous day. The inventory in Shanghai was 23,000 tons, in Wuxi was 251,000 tons, in Hangzhou was 13,000 tons, in Foshan was 250,000 tons, in Tianjin was 20,000 tons, in Shenyang was 1,000 tons, in Gongyi was 120,000 tons, and in Chongqing was 11,000 tons. [28] 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Fed officials have indicated that they are not in a hurry to cut interest rates in the short term, and the policy divergence between the Fed and the US government is emerging. China's major economic data is gradually stabilizing, and the expectation of introducing more stimulus policies is increasing. The inventory of alumina continues to be at an ultra - low level, while its production capacity has increased significantly and the operating rate has decreased slightly. The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level, and the operating rate continues to rise. The national aluminum rod inventory has decreased significantly, and the inventory level is at a relatively high level in recent years. The Shanghai aluminum inventory continues to decline, and the inventory level is at a relatively low level in recent years. The LME aluminum inventory has decreased slightly, and the proportion of cancelled warrants has decreased slightly. [5][38] 3.6 Future Outlook - China will increase the tariff on US goods from 84% to 125%. At the current tariff level, US goods exported to China have no market acceptance possibility, and the impact of tariffs may weaken. Aluminum prices may mainly show a wide - range oscillatory trend. [6][39]