Group 1 - Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2 - Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is interval oscillation, the medium - term view is going up, and the intraday view is oscillating strongly. The policy - side positive expectations form strong support, but there are uncertainties from external factors such as the evolution after the end of the Sino - US tariff war suspension period and the Middle East geopolitical crisis [1][5] Group 3 - Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2506, the short - term trend is oscillation, the medium - term trend is upward, the intraday trend is oscillating strongly, and the reference view is interval oscillation. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, IM. The intraday view is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is interval oscillation. The core logic is that the latest May credit data shows weak real - economy financing demand, so policy - side support is expected. The positive policy expectations strengthen the bottom support of the stock index. Also, there are high uncertainties from external factors, and the stock market risk preference is defensive. In the short term, the stock index will mainly oscillate in an interval, waiting for new driving forces [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Today's news was relatively quiet, with stock indices fluctuating within a narrow range and the dividend index leading the gains. Market sentiment was cautious. The domestic economic fundamentals were in a weak recovery state, while there were still uncertainties overseas and the external situation was volatile. Under the influence of both domestic and international factors, the stock indices lacked strong drivers, resulting in a strong wait - and - see sentiment and low trading activity in the market. The upcoming Lujiazui Forum tomorrow morning will release several financial policies. If there are policies exceeding expectations, it is expected to drive the stock indices to enter a phase - up trend [4]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock indices fluctuated weakly. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed down 0.09%. In terms of capital flow, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 7.863 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF and IC declined on heavy volume, IH rose on light volume, and IM rose on heavy volume [2]. Important Information - The two - day 2025 Lujiazui Forum will open tomorrow morning with the theme of "Financial Opening - up, Cooperation and High - quality Development in the Changing Global Economic Landscape". - The Bank of Japan kept the policy benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.50%, in line with market expectations, and remained on hold for the third consecutive meeting [3]. Strategy Recommendation - Hold positions and wait and see [5]. Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | -0.01 | 0.10 | -0.20 | 0.02 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 9.563 | 5.0679 | 8.6313 | 17.9958 | | Trading volume MoM (10,000 lots) | -0.6555 | 0.2873 | -0.011 | 0.713 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 23.7778 | 8.2576 | 21.8236 | 32.9756 | | Open interest MoM (10,000 lots) | 0.1165 | -0.0433 | 0.0333 | 0.5515 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | -0.04 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -0.12 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.77 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 1207.213 | | Trading volume MoM (billion yuan) | -78.63 | [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View No clear core view is presented in the given content. It mainly provides data on global asset market performance, including bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and futures trading data. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - year Treasury Yields**: On June 13, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of major economies varied. For example, the US was 4.401%, and the UK was 4.549%. Changes in yields were also provided for the latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year periods. For instance, the one - year change in the US was 0.074%, while in Italy it was - 0.384% [3]. - **2 - year Treasury Yields**: The 2 - year Treasury yields of major economies such as the US, UK, and Germany were presented. On June 13, 2025, the US 2 - year yield was 3.940%. Similar to the 10 - year yields, changes for different time periods were given [3]. - **Exchange Rates**: The exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging economies' currencies were shown. On June 13, 2025, the exchange rate against the Brazilian real was 5.544, with the latest change being 0.11%. Changes for the latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year periods were provided [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The performance of major economies' stock indices was reported. On June 13, 2025, the Dow Jones was 5976.970, with a latest change of - 1.13%. Changes for different time periods were also included [3]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: The performance of credit bond indices, including emerging economies' investment - grade and high - yield, and US and euro - zone investment - grade and high - yield, was presented. The latest changes, one - week, one - month, and one - year changes were given [3]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 were provided. For example, the closing price of A - shares was 3377.00, with a change of - 0.75% [4]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) and its环比 changes of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX were reported. For instance, the PE (TTM) of CSI 300 was 12.72, with a环比 change of - 0.06 [4]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premiums (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) and their环比 changes of S&P 500 and German DAX were given. The risk premium of S&P 500 was - 0.46, with a环比 change of 0.01 [4]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in A - shares, the main board, small - and medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 were presented. The latest value of A - shares' fund flow was - 1393.57 [4]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes and环比 changes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small - and medium - sized board, and ChiNext were reported. The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 14671.97 [4]. - **Main Contract Premiums/Discounts**: The basis and percentage changes of IF, IH, and IC were provided. The basis of IF was - 7.78, with a change of - 0.20% [4]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Closing Prices and Changes**: The closing prices and percentage changes of Treasury bond futures T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were presented. The closing price of T00 was 108.825, with a change of 0.02% [5]. - **Funding Rates**: The funding rates R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M and their daily changes (BP) were given. The R001 rate was 1.4620%, with a daily change of - 12.00 BP [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, 930.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open market will mature, with 135 billion yuan maturing on Friday. After the bank assessment at the beginning of the month, the capital market has become looser, and the central bank uses various tools to ensure reasonable and sufficient mid - year liquidity [4] - Current domestic factors have weak driving forces for stock indices. The fundamentals are weak, with low inflation and slowed export growth. The policy is in a vacuum. Overseas factors dominate short - term fluctuations. Short - term Sino - US trade negotiations have relatively positive results, leading to a relatively strong market oscillation. Investors should be cautious about repeated Sino - US tariff signals and long - position investors in stock index futures can buy put options to hedge risks [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Money Market - DR001 closed at 1.37, up 0.47 bp; DR007 at 1.54, up 1.10 bp; GC001 at 1.49, down 4.50 bp; GC007 at 1.57, down 1.00 bp; SHBOR 3M at 1.64, down 0.30 bp; LPR 5 - year at 3.50, down 10.00 bp; 1 - year treasury bond at 1.41, unchanged; 5 - year treasury bond at 1.51, up 0.50 bp; 10 - year treasury bond at 1.65, up 0.30 bp; 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.41, down 6.00 bp [3] - The central bank conducted 119.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an interest rate of 1.40% yesterday. With 126.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, there was a net withdrawal of 7.2 billion yuan [3] 3.2 Stock Index Market - The closing prices and changes of major indices: CSI 300 fell 0.06% to 3892.2; SSE 50 fell 0.03% to 2691.3; CSI 500 rose 0.12% to 5799.9; CSI 1000 rose 0.09% to 6192.2. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.2718 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.3 billion yuan [5] - Industry sectors: Precious metals, beauty care, jewelry, diversified finance, culture and media, household light industry, and biological products led the gains, while shipping ports, brewing, and electronic chemicals led the losses [5] - Futures market: IF volume was 83,934, down 25.1; IF open interest was 235,571, down 6.2; IH volume was 45,745, down 15.2; IH open interest was 82,865, down 1.4; IC volume was 67,708, down 15.9; IC open interest was 216,406, down 1.2; IM volume was 158,990, down 13.9; IM open interest was 326,593, up 0.6 [5] 3.3 Futures Ascertainment and Premium/Discount Situation - IF premium/discount rates for different contracts: 10.08% for the current - month contract, 13.18% for the next - month contract, 0.02% for the current - quarter contract, and 5.48% for the next - quarter contract [7] - IH premium/discount rates for different contracts: 15.39% for the current - month contract, 17.06% for the next - month contract, 7.05% for the current - quarter contract, and 3.69% for the next - quarter contract [7] - IC premium/discount rates for different contracts: 15.68% for the current - month contract, 17.40% for the next - month contract, 13.15% for the current - quarter contract, and 11.05% for the next - quarter contract [7] - IM premium/discount rates for different contracts: 26.10% for the current - month contract, 21.68% for the next - month contract, 17.60% for the current - quarter contract, and 14.67% for the next - quarter contract [7]

Report Overview - Report Title: "大类资产早报" - Report Date: June 13, 2025 - Author: Research Center Macro Team 1. Global Asset Market Performance 1.1 Main Economies' 10 - Year Treasury Yields - On June 12, 2025, yields in the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.361%, 4.475%, 3.180% respectively. Latest changes ranged from -0.061 (US) to 0.002 (China). One - year changes varied, with the UK up 0.255 and Italy down 0.475 [3]. 1.2 Main Economies' 2 - Year Treasury Yields - On June 12, 2025, yields in the US, UK, Germany, etc. were 4.010%, 3.861%, 1.810% respectively. Latest changes ranged from -0.046 (UK) to 0.072 (South Korea). One - year changes also showed differences, like the US down 0.910 and Japan up 0.349 [3]. 1.3 US Dollar to Main Emerging Economies' Currency Exchange Rates - On June 12, 2025, the exchange rate against the Brazilian real was 5.537. Latest changes were from -0.93% (South Korean won) to 0.26% (South African rand). One - year changes showed the Brazilian real up 5.56% and the South African rand down 3.99% [3]. 1.4 Main Economies' Stock Indexes - On June 12, 2025, the S&P 500 was at 6045.260. Latest changes were from -0.74% (German DAX) to 0.38% (S&P 500). One - year changes were significant, such as the German DAX up 27.75% and the French CAC down 2.91% [3]. 1.5 Credit Bond Indexes - On June 12, 2025, the US investment - grade credit bond index was 3392.930. Latest changes were from -0.02% (Eurozone high - yield credit bond index) to 0.43% (US investment - grade credit bond index). One - year changes were positive across the board, with the emerging economies' high - yield credit bond index up 13.14% [3][4]. 2. Stock Index Futures Trading Data 2.1 Index Performance - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, etc. were 3402.66, 3892.20 respectively. The daily percentage changes were from -0.06% (CSI 300) to 0.26% (ChiNext) [5]. 2.2 Valuation - The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 12.78, 10.90 respectively. The环比 changes were from -0.15% (German DAX) to 0.03% (CSI 500) [5]. 2.3 Risk Premium - The 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of the S&P 500 was -0.47, with a环比 change of 0.05%. The German DAX was 2.44, with a环比 change of 0.09% [5]. 2.4 Fund Flows - The latest values of A - shares, the main board, etc. were -433.46, -411.02 respectively. The 5 - day average values also showed different trends [5]. 2.5 Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. were 12717.69 billion, 2602.40 billion respectively. The环比 changes were from 16.02 (Small and Medium - sized Board) to 180.87 (ChiNext) [5]. 2.6 Main Contract Premium or Discount - The basis of IF, IH, IC were -8.60, -9.08, -19.93 respectively. The percentage changes were -0.22%, -0.34%, -0.34% respectively [5]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T00, TF00, etc. were 108.850, 105.880 respectively. The daily percentage changes were from -0.03% (TF00) to 0.05% (T01) [6]. - The R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M were 1.4348%, 1.5820%, 1.6390% respectively. The daily changes in basis points were from -13.00 (R001) to 0.00 (SHIBOR - 3M) [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report No clear core view is presented in the given content. The report mainly provides data on global asset market performance, including bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and futures trading data. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Bond Yields**: Yields vary across different economies. For example, on 2025/06/06, the US was at 4.508, with a latest change of 0.115, a one - year change of - 0.043. Some yields have increased recently, while others have decreased [2]. - **2 - Year Treasury Bond Yields**: Similar to 10 - year yields, there are differences among economies. The US 2 - year yield on 2025/06/06 was 3.870, with a latest change of - 0.090 and a one - year change of - 1.060 [2]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar's exchange rates against major emerging economies' currencies show different trends. For instance, against the Brazilian real, it was 5.560 on 2025/06/06, with a latest change of - 0.50% and a one - year change of 7.74% [2]. - **Stock Indices**: Stock indices also have diverse performances. The S&P 500 on 2025/06/06 was 6000.360, with a latest change of 1.03% and a one - year change of 13.09% [2]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: Different types of credit bond indices (investment - grade and high - yield) in different regions (US, eurozone, emerging economies) have various changes. For example, the US investment - grade credit bond index had a latest change of - 0.49% [2]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: A - share closed at 3385.36 with a 0.04% change. Different indices like the CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., have different closing prices and percentage changes [3]. - **Valuation**: PE (TTM) values for different indices are provided, such as 12.56 for the CSI 300, with corresponding环比 changes [3]. - **Risk Premium**: Risk premium data (1/PE - 10 rate) and their环比 changes are given for multiple indices [3]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows for different segments of the A - share market are presented. For example, the latest value of A - share fund flow was - 518.24 [3]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and different indices are provided, along with环比 changes [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spread data for index futures like IF, IH, and IC are given [3]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Closing Prices and Changes**: The closing prices and percentage changes of treasury bond futures (T00, TF00, T01, TF01) are shown. For example, T00 closed at 108.710 with a 0.03% change [4]. - **Funding Rates**: Funding rates (R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M) and their daily changes are provided [4].

FICC日报 | 2025-06-04 股指低开高走，金融板块表现强势 市场分析 特朗普提高关税。国内方面，美方称中方违反日内瓦会谈共识，对此，外交部发言人林剑表示，商务部发言人此 前已就此阐明中方严正立场。日内瓦共识是中美双方在相互尊重、平等协商的原则下达成的。美方在毫无事实根 据的情况下，对中方抹黑指责，出台对华芯片出口管制、暂停对华芯片设计软件销售、宣布撤销中国留学生签证 等极端打压措施，严重破坏日内瓦共识，也损害了中方正当权益。中方对此坚决反对，已提出严正交涉。林剑强 调，施压和胁迫不是同中方打交道的正确方式。我们督促美方尊重事实，停止散布虚假信息，纠正有关错误做法， 以实际行动维护双方达成的共识。海外方面，特朗普宣布将进口钢铁和铝及其衍生制品的关税从25%提高至50%， 该关税政策自美国东部时间2025年6月4日凌晨00时01分起生效。美国从英国进口的钢铝关税仍将维持在25%。 股指上涨。现货市场，A股三大指数低开高走，上证指数涨0.43%收于33631.98点，创业板指涨0.48%。行业方面， 板块指数涨多跌少，美容护理、纺织服饰、银行行业领涨，家用电器、钢铁、煤炭行业跌幅居前。当日沪深两市 成交 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The stock index is expected to fluctuate, and the overall market may continue a structural trend of index fluctuations and rotation of thematic sectors before the trading volume effectively expands. The bond market has limited intraday trading space, and the yield changes are mainly caused by market sentiment and micro - trading behaviors. The key to boosting domestic prices lies in expanding effective demand. Fiscal policy will increase efforts and improve efficiency, focusing on the issuance of government bonds and optimizing the allocation of fiscal funds [9][11][21]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures Strategy Recommendations Stock Index Strategy - Strategy Outlook: The stock index is expected to fluctuate [9]. - Core View: Tariff policy implementation is facing obstacles, and the US economic data and Fed's interest - rate cut plans are uncertain. In addition, geopolitical factors also affect the market. Before the trading volume effectively expands, the structural market of index fluctuations and thematic sector rotation is likely to continue [9]. - Technical Analysis: The KDJ indicator shows that the market index may fluctuate weakly [9]. Treasury Bond Strategy - Strategy Outlook: It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [11]. - Core View: The bond market has almost completed one - step pricing, with limited intraday trading space. The yield changes are mainly due to market sentiment and micro - trading behaviors [11]. - Technical Analysis: The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract may fluctuate weakly [11]. Key Data Tracking PMI - In May, the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.5%. The improvement in supply and demand is the main driving force, but it may be a short - term pulse. Enterprises are worried about long - term oversupply [18]. Inflation - In April, CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year and increased by 0.1% month - on - month; PPI decreased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The impact of tariff shocks on domestic CPI may be limited, and boosting prices depends on expanding effective demand [21]. Profits of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size - From January to April, the year - on - year profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size rebounded to 1.4%. In April, the profit increased by 3.0% year - on - year, and the revenue increased by 2.6% year - on - year. The improvement in profit is mainly due to the increase in profit margins. The profit growth rate shows a differentiation between upstream and downstream, and the export - related industries have improved [24]. Fiscal - From January to April 2025, national general public budget revenue was 8.1 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%; expenditure was 9.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. Fiscal policy will focus on accelerating the issuance of government bonds and optimizing the allocation of fiscal funds [27]. Industrial Added Value - In April, industrial added value increased by 6.1% year - on - year, and the service production index increased by 6.0% year - on - year. The growth rate slowed down compared with March, but the industrial production still shows resilience. The slowdown in the equipment manufacturing industry may be due to the decline in export - related production [30]. Fixed - Asset Investment - In April, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment dropped to 3.6%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate was 4.0%. The growth rate of infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate investment all declined to varying degrees. The real estate investment continued to decline, and the new - house sales and real - estate enterprise funds were under pressure [33]. Social Retail Sales - In April, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales dropped to 5.1%, lower than market expectations. The growth rates of both necessary and optional consumption declined, and there were differences in the growth rates of different retail channels [36]. Social Financing - In April, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock rebounded to 8.7%. Government bonds were the main support for the increase in social financing. Credit decreased seasonally, and the M2 growth rate rebounded [39]. Import and Export - In April, China's exports were 315.69 billion US dollars, imports were 219.51 billion US dollars, and the trade surplus was 96.18 billion US dollars. The export performance exceeded market expectations, mainly supported by re - export trade. The export growth rates of different trade methods and product categories showed different trends [42]. US Non - farm Payrolls - In April 2025, the US added 177,000 non - farm jobs, with a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 4.2%. The long - term and short - term unemployment problems showed signs of intensification, and the labor market was gradually cooling down [45]. US CPI - In April, the US CPI increased by 2.3% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.8% year - on - year. The inflation pressure on core commodities and services was controllable [48]. Weekly Focus - Key economic indicators and events to be concerned about from June 3rd to June 6th include China's May Caixin Manufacturing PMI, US May ISM Non - manufacturing Index, Eurozone ECB main refinancing rate, and US May non - farm payrolls and unemployment rate [50].

王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 信息面较平淡，延续震荡偏弱 股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年5月28日 市场回顾 今日股指震荡偏弱，以沪深300指数为例，收盘下跌0.08%。从资金面来看，两市成交额回升110.24亿 元。期指均缩量下跌。 重要资讯 1. 美国总统特朗普在社交媒体发文称，对欧盟加快贸易谈判进程感到鼓舞。 核心观点 虽然近期中美贸易摩擦有所缓，但国际环境变数仍多，且国内经济一直处于弱复苏状态，内需不足、价格 下降等制约因素仍然存在，上行动力不足，同时国内政策预期托底，对指数形成支撑，本周公布的最新规 模以上工业企业利润数据显示我国工业具有较强韧性和抗冲击能力，下方空间有限。短期在没有多空信息 的刺激下，预计股指仍将以震荡为主，趋势交易需谨慎。 策略推荐 持仓观望 股指日报期指市场观察 | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力日内涨跌幅（%） | -0.20 | -0.21 | -0.26 | -0.32 | | 成交量（万手） | 6.5 ...

Group 1 - The S&P/TSX Composite Index in Canada rose by 0.75%, closing at 26,073.13 points, surpassing the previous all-time closing high set on May 20 [1] - The small-cap index increased by 1.21%, reaching 857.88 points, breaking the historical closing high of 850.25 points established on April 13, 2022 [1] - Canadian 10-year benchmark government bond yields fell by 2.5 basis points, while 2-year yields decreased by 0.50 basis points and 5-year yields dropped by 2.3 basis points [1]