一、现实没有仙女棒 最近，我完成了一个AI挑战：独立翻译整本《安全边际》——这本几乎已经绝版的价值投资经典。 翻译过程中，我发现一件有趣的事： 这本书前13章，卡拉曼讲的全是判断——如何理解风险、评估企业、做出理性的决策；但到了最后一 章，他突然换了一个视角，转向了另一类读者：那些不打算，或无法亲自做投资判断的普通人。 "我建议你采纳价值投资理念：要么找到一位在此领域拥有良好记录的专业管理人，要么亲自投入必要 的时间与精力，承担这项工作。" 我对此的理解是：如果你无法亲自投资，那你就必须学会挑人。 这听起来不像是一句鼓励，更像是一种现实主义的提醒：你不想选股票，那你得学会选人；你不能判断 市场，那你至少得判断谁替你判断。 但问题是，选人，跟选股一样难——甚至更难。可靠的股票很稀缺，值得托付的人更稀缺。 "如果这本书是一则童话，也许结局会更圆满。但现实是，对大多数个人投资者而言，可选的优质投资 路径寥寥无几。" 卡拉曼一开头就点破：不好意思，现实不是童话，没有仙女棒和南瓜车，也没有简单的幸福方案——投 资，好难。 如果你想参与投资，甚至试图超越市场，你注定要付出大量时间与精力。否则，唯一的出路，就是托付 ——把 ...

1/6 从休谟到巴菲特 以下文章来源于思想钢印 ，作者思想钢印 思想钢印 . 雪球2020年度十大影响力用户，私募基金经理 编者按 芒格的投资比巴菲特更大胆，经常有一些突破个人经验的激进案例，以挑战自己的投资边界。芒格只在 2010年来过中国一次，考察并投资了比亚迪，而他后来对于阿里等诸多中概股的投资，更多是基于某些 投资理念而"背叛"了经验主义的传统，巴菲特并不认可。 ——BY 思想钢印 以下，祝开卷有得。 提示：本公众号所发布的内容仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议和销售要约。如您对重阳产品感兴趣，欢 迎 扫码 咨询。 图文来源/ 微信公众号【 思想钢印】 作者/ 思想钢印 本图文已获得转载授权，如需转载请联系原作者， 文章仅代表作者个人独立观点。 下面的三个选择，你更倾向于哪一个？ 选择1、一个你非常看好的股票，你会——A、等待一个更便宜的价格，代价是有可能错过牛股B、只要 价格适合就行了，牛股少有，不能错过 选择2、你更喜欢的科技行业是A、AI算力，有现实的市场需求、明确的技术路径和可靠的订单B、AI应 用，没有可靠产品和真实市场，主要是相信产业大趋势 选择3、有人介绍了一个选股系统，近半年来，选出来几支股 ...

歌声ue 如何看待降准落地后资金面的边际收敛？ —— 流动性与机构行为周度跟踪 250518 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 5 月 18 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 证券研究报告 债券研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益首席分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | | 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com | [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 18 日 [➢Table_Summary] 本周央行逆回购净回笼 3501 亿元，周四 1250 亿 MLF 到期，但降准 0.5%也在 当日落地。尽管央行在周中持续净回笼，但上半周资金利率显著走低，R001 降至 1.4%-1.45%的区间。尽管周四降准落地，但 MLF 到期叠加政府债缴款规 模增大，尾盘资金边际收紧，周五央行小幅净投放，早盘资金紧张持 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the investment philosophy and business insights of Duan Yongping, often referred to as the "Chinese version of Buffett," emphasizing his impact on various influential companies and the release of the book "The Great Way," which systematically organizes his thoughts on business and investment [1][3]. Investment Philosophy - Duan Yongping's investment approach centers on value investing, which he defines as buying companies based on their future cash flow discounted to present value [3][4]. - Key considerations for investing in a company include its long-term profitability and how profits are distributed to shareholders [4]. Business Model and Company Culture - The importance of a strong business model and corporate culture is emphasized, with Duan stating that these factors are more critical than price in assessing a company's value [5][6]. - A good business model is characterized by consistent profits and cash flow, with high barriers to entry that deter competition [5]. Investment Criteria - Duan employs a "soul five questions" framework to evaluate companies, focusing on their business model, culture, and long-term prospects [7]. - He believes that understanding a limited number of companies deeply is more beneficial than spreading investments too thinly across many [8]. Successful Investments - Duan's notable investments include NetEase, Apple, and Moutai, with significant returns achieved through long-term holding [10][11][12]. - His success is attributed to a deep understanding of the companies he invests in, allowing him to hold onto them through market fluctuations [14]. Margin of Safety - The concept of margin of safety is crucial in Duan's investment strategy, emphasizing the need for a buffer when predicting future cash flows [15]. - He believes that the frequency of finding great investment opportunities is less important than the strength of the investment decisions made [16]. Valuation Insights - Duan stresses that learning to value companies takes time and that a solid understanding of a company's future cash flow is essential for making informed investment decisions [18][19]. - He advocates for using discounted cash flow (DCF) as a logical valuation method, focusing on companies with monopolistic advantages and strong cash flow certainty [19]. Long-term Perspective - The article underscores the importance of making principled investment choices and maintaining a long-term perspective, as exemplified by Duan's adherence to value investing principles [20][21]. - Duan's investment philosophy aligns with the belief that value investing leads to sustainable success and personal fulfillment [23][24].

发言全文如下： 全球商业趋势是一个非常有趣且复杂的话题。今天我们谈论的"趋势"并非仅指最新潮、最酷炫的技术产 品，而是回溯那些真正改变世界的"颠覆性创新"历程。其实，"技术颠覆"并不是新鲜词，从公元前5000 年啤酒的酿造，到面包的普及促进了早期贸易，人类历史中的许多发明都曾深刻改变社会运行方式。而 我认为影响最深远的一次"创新拐点"出现在1450年印刷术的诞生，它极大提升了信息的记录与传播效 率，催生了随后的知识与技术爆炸。我们现在所处的时代，正如当年印刷术出现那样，是又一个变革性 拐点——信息的生成、存储和共享方式正以前所未有的速度发生演进。尤其对你们"Z世代"而言，这一 浪潮既充满挑战，也蕴含无限机遇。 来源：环球网 2025年5月8日，由中国公共外交协会、环球网、上海交通大学、同济大学、澳门大学、北京外国语大学 共同主办的第二期全球名校"Z世代"领袖连线活动举办。澳大利亚蒙纳士大学Paul Murphy教授在讲座中 指出：我们正处于信息革命的又一重大转折点，新技术驱动的系统性变革正在重塑社会结构与产业生 态，而Z世代正站在引领变革的前沿。 新型钠电池正在兴起，还有低毒、低易燃性、更环保的锂电池改进版本 ...

在谈论沃伦·巴菲特时，很多人习惯聚焦在那些耳熟能详的标签：长期持有、价值投资、复利奇迹。但如果想真正理解，他为什么能持续几十年击败市场，仅靠这 些表面印象远远不够。 2008年，《滚雪球》作者爱丽丝·施罗德（Alice Schroeder）在弗吉尼亚大学价值投资会议的一场演讲中，详细还原了巴菲特一次非常经典且鲜为人知的私人投资 ——中部穿孔卡公司（Midcontinent Tab Card Company）。 编者按 作为巴菲特的传记作者，她曾有机会近距离接触巴菲特及其最核心的圈子，拥有独一无二的观察视角。这场演讲真正与众不同之处在于：施罗德特别强调了巴菲 特作为赔率评估者的思考逻辑。与一般人想象的不同，巴菲特的成功，并不是依靠复杂模型或者超前预测。 他像一个赛马下注师，第一步永远是问自己：这项投资有没有灾难性风险？如果有，立即拒绝，不再浪费时间。这种极端注重赔率评估和风险排查的思维方式， 是他投资方法的出发点，也是他在长期战役中屹立不倒的根基。在这场演讲中，爱丽丝·施罗德也特别强调了巴菲特鲜为人知的一面：他从不建复杂财务模型，只 关注最核心的几组数据；他设定15%的初始回报率作为底线，追求合理赔率，而不是贪 ...

镍不锈钢产业链周报 2025/05/12 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观 点、结论和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在 不发出通知的情形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不 能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许 可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东 亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is "Positive" [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a marginal easing of tariff policies, suggesting a potential recovery in consumption and export sectors within the industry [3][12]. - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has shown a weekly return of 1.01%, ranking 26th among 31 primary sub-industry indices, with medical devices leading at 1.67% [3][27]. - Recent government policies, such as the establishment of geriatric medicine departments in hospitals and new regulations for drug wholesale management in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, are expected to positively impact the industry [3][47]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector's performance over the past month was a return of 4.77%, ranking 19th among 31 primary sub-industry indices [3][14]. - The sector's current PE (TTM) is 26.29 times, which is below the historical average of 31.15 times, indicating a relatively low valuation [20][21]. 2. Market Performance - The report notes that the recent three-month performance shows a decline of 1.88%, while the six-month performance indicates a drop of 7.71% [15][16]. - The report suggests that the easing of tariff impacts may lead to a valuation recovery in specific sub-sectors such as CXO, raw materials, and medical devices [3][12]. 3. Export Industry Chain - The report recommends focusing on the export industry chain, particularly in the CXO sector, with key companies including WuXi AppTec and others highlighted for potential investment [3][12]. - In the raw materials sector, companies like Junshi Biosciences and others are suggested for attention [3][12]. 4. Consumption Recovery - The report anticipates that monetary policies such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions will enhance macroeconomic consumption [3][12]. - Specific sectors for investment include ophthalmology and dental care, medical aesthetics, traditional Chinese medicine, and retail pharmacy leaders [3][12]. 5. Industry Dynamics - Recent policy developments include the release of guidelines for geriatric medicine and new regulations for drug wholesale management, which are expected to foster healthy development in the pharmaceutical distribution sector [3][47]. - Notable industry news includes collaborations between major pharmaceutical companies and health platforms, as well as significant investments in local production facilities [47].

Core Insights - The essence of Warren Buffett's business philosophy is a belief in "value creation" [1] - Buffett's investment success is attributed to a combination of investment wisdom, business philosophy, human insight, and rational decision-making [1] Value Investment Philosophy - The core principles of Buffett's investment philosophy include the margin of safety and the circle of competence [2][3] - The margin of safety principle emphasizes buying assets at prices significantly below their intrinsic value, focusing on high-quality companies at reasonable prices [2] - Buffett avoids high-volatility sectors and invests only in areas he understands, such as insurance and consumer goods [3] Market Behavior - Buffett views market fluctuations as emotional expressions of "Mr. Market," advising investors to focus on intrinsic value rather than short-term noise [4] Business Model Focus - The business model is the primary consideration in investment decisions, with a preference for companies with strong economic moats [6] - Economic moats include brand effects, cost advantages, network effects, and economic franchises, which allow companies to maintain pricing power [6] - Buffett favors companies that generate stable cash flows, such as insurance and utilities, which provide a foundation for investment expansion [7] Long-Term Strategy - Buffett's long-term holding strategy is a key driver of wealth accumulation, emphasizing the power of compounding [10] - He has held stocks like Coca-Cola and American Express for over 30 years, demonstrating confidence in their long-term value [11] - Buffett capitalizes on economic cycles, making strategic investments during downturns for significant returns [12] Financial Leverage and Capital Allocation - Buffett utilizes float from insurance operations as a source of low-cost long-term capital, with over $140 billion in float as of 2024 [14] - Efficient capital allocation focuses on maximizing returns, investing in high-return sectors [15] - Maintaining cash reserves allows Buffett to seize opportunities during market downturns, with $189 billion in cash reserves in Q1 2024 [16] Rationality and Emotional Management - Buffett's success is rooted in extreme restraint against greed and fear, emphasizing independent thinking and emotional isolation [18][19] - He acknowledges mistakes and demonstrates rational correction, as seen in his decision to exit airline stocks [20] Diversified Structure - Berkshire Hathaway's success is attributed to its diversified business structure, which includes insurance, energy, and manufacturing [22] - The combination of full acquisitions and minority stakes balances control and liquidity [23] - Recent investments in Japanese trading companies and Canadian firms reflect a global perspective to mitigate U.S. market risks [24] Conclusion - Buffett's success is not based on complex models but on a value-driven philosophy that integrates rationality, patience, and long-term thinking [26]

所有有关投资的说法实际上都是在讨论如何看懂现金流的问题（如何把事情做对），比如生意模式、护城河、能 力圈等。在巴菲特这里我学到的最重要的东西就是生意模式。以前虽然也知道生意模式重要，但往往是和其他很 多重要的东西混在一起看的。当年巴菲特特别提醒我，应该首先看生意模式，这几年下来觉得确实应该如此。 投资是什么？ 投资就是买未来现金流。 所谓能看懂公司就是能看懂其未来现金流（做对的事情）。 所有所谓有关投资的说法实际上都是在讨论如何看懂现金流的问题（如何把事情做对）。 买股票就是买公司，买公司就是买其未来现金流折现。这里现金流指的是净现金流，未来指的是公司的整个生命 周期，不是3年，也不是5年。 折现率实际上是相对于投资人的机会成本而言的。最低的机会成本就是无风险回报率，比如美国国债的利率。有 些人把自己生意中有限的资金投到股市里实际上是不合算的，因为其自己的生意获利往往比股市的平均回报高。 当然，多余资金投入无可非议。（听说国内某网络公司买了很多苹果的股票，这属于无可非议型的。）可我确实 看到不少公司贷着款还要买股票，看不懂啊。 所谓能看懂公司就是能看懂其未来现金流折现（做对的事情）。所谓未来现金流折现只是个思 ...