Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 4% to 4.25% reflects a consensus among officials that the importance of slowing job growth outweighs concerns about persistent high inflation, marking the first rate cut of the year [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The voting result of the September meeting was 11 to 1, with the only dissenting vote from newly appointed Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran, who advocated for a 0.5 percentage point cut [2]. - Most officials expressed a willingness to consider further rate cuts in the remaining months of the year, while also acknowledging the risks of inflation [4][6]. - The dot plot from the September meeting indicates that officials expect two more rate cuts of 0.25 percentage points each by the end of the year, although there are differing opinions among the 19 participants regarding future cuts [6][7]. Group 2: Economic Conditions and Risks - Investors generally anticipate another 0.25 percentage point rate cut at the upcoming meeting on October 28-29, with futures contracts reflecting expectations for continued cuts in October and December [8]. - Despite recognizing risks in the labor market, many officials believe that employment will not deteriorate rapidly, with recent indicators not showing significant declines [8]. - Concerns about inflation persist, as it has remained above the Fed's target for four consecutive years, with fears that businesses and consumers may adapt to higher price growth, potentially stabilizing inflation around 3% [9]. Group 3: Policy Considerations - Officials reiterated the importance of balancing employment and inflation risks in future decisions, with some expressing caution about further rate cuts given the current borrowing conditions [11][12]. - The ongoing government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, limiting the information available to Fed officials for making informed decisions [13][14]. - The absence of official monthly economic data coincides with a particularly uncertain period, as the Fed navigates the impacts of significant policy changes, including tariffs and stricter immigration policies [15][16].

根据联邦公开市场委员会9月16日—17日会议纪要，"多数人判断，在今年剩余时间进一步放松政策可能 是合适的"。会议记录还显示，"多数与会者强调通胀前景面临上行风险"。 与会官员以11比1的投票结果决定将利率下调25个基点至4%—4.25%的区间，这是今年的首次降息。新 上任的斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）主张一次性降息50个基点，因而对该决定投了反对票。 会议后发布的新预测显示，按中位数估计，官员预计到今年年底还将再降两次各25个基点。不过，预测 也体现出委员会内部的分歧：在19名与会者中，有6人预计2025年只会降息一次或不再降息。 美联储又传重磅消息。 重点内容如下。 10月9日凌晨，美联储公布9月联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议纪要。美联储官员们在9月政策会议 上表现出今年进一步降息的意愿，但同时也因通胀风险而保持谨慎。 美联储官员在上月的政策会议上表示，今年内有意进一步降息，但出于对通胀的担忧，许多人仍保持谨 慎态度。 自9月会议以来，包括美联储副主席菲利普·杰斐逊和米歇尔·鲍曼在内的美联储理事都提到，劳动力市场 的强劲是需要降息的理由。米兰则认为，中性利率低于普遍认知，这意味着美联储需 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing increasing internal divisions regarding the outlook for interest rate cuts, with more than half of the officials expecting at least two more cuts this year, while others foresee only one or no cuts through 2025 [1][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The FOMC meeting minutes indicate that the majority of officials agree that the recent slowdown in job growth is more significant than persistent high inflation, leading to a 25 basis point rate cut, marking the first cut of the year [2]. - The voting result of the September meeting was 11 to 1, with the dissenting vote from Stephen Miran, who advocated for a 50 basis point cut [2]. - Investors widely anticipate another 25 basis point cut at the upcoming meeting on October 28-29, with a 94.6% probability of this outcome according to CME FedWatch [5]. Group 2: Employment and Inflation Concerns - The minutes highlight concerns among officials regarding the rising risks in the U.S. labor market, with some fearing that maintaining current interest rates for too long could lead to unnecessary weakness in employment, particularly in the housing sector [6]. - Officials are worried about inflation remaining above the Fed's target for four consecutive years, with concerns that businesses and consumers may become accustomed to higher price growth, potentially keeping inflation around 3% [7]. - The balance between promoting employment and controlling inflation is emphasized as crucial in future policy decisions, with officials acknowledging the dual risks of high rates leading to job weakness and excessive cuts causing inflation to rebound [7][8]. Group 3: Data Limitations and Decision-Making Challenges - The ongoing government shutdown has resulted in a lack of economic data, complicating the Fed's ability to make informed decisions at the upcoming meeting [8]. - The absence of official data on inflation, unemployment, and consumer spending means that Fed officials may have to rely on private sector data and feedback from businesses regarding pricing and hiring [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve officials expressed a willingness to further cut interest rates this year, but remain cautious due to inflation risks [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Interest Rate Decisions - The FOMC voted 11 to 1 to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year [3]. - New forecasts indicate that officials expect two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each by the end of the year, although there are internal disagreements among the 19 participants [3]. Inflation and Employment Concerns - Many officials emphasized that the inflation outlook poses upward risks, with a minority expressing reservations about the recent rate cut [3]. - Despite concerns about the labor market, most participants believe that employment is unlikely to deteriorate rapidly [3]. Market Expectations - Federal funds futures indicate that investors expect rate cuts in October and December, with a significant majority anticipating at least two more 25 basis point cuts by year-end [4]. - The FOMC is weighing the dual risks of inflation and employment in their decision-making process [4]. Government Shutdown Impact - The ongoing government shutdown may hinder data collection and reporting from key economic indicators, potentially affecting the FOMC's decision-making in the upcoming meetings [4].

【导读】 美联储会议纪要显示，即使官员降息，仍对通胀保持谨慎 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，关注一下美联储的重磅消息。 10月9日凌晨， 美联储公布9月联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议纪要。美联储官员们在9月政策会议上表现出今年进一步降息的意愿， 但同时也因通胀风险而保持谨慎。 自9月会议以来，包括美联储副主席菲利普·杰斐逊和米歇尔·鲍曼在内的美联储理事都提到，劳动力市场的强劲是需要降息的理由。米兰则 认为，中性利率低于普遍认知，这意味着美联储需要更快降息。特朗普及多名政府官员也引用近期数据，越来越多地呼吁美联储立即降 息。 联邦基金利率期货显示，投资者预计10月和12月大概率会降息。 纪要写道："几乎所有接受纽约联储交易台调查的受访者都预计本次会议将把联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，约半数受访者预计10 月会议还将进一步降息。绝大多数受访者预计到年底至少会有两次25个基点的降息，约半数预计会有三次。" | 重点内容如下。 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 美联储官员在上月的政策会议上表示，今年内有意进一步降息，但出于对通胀的担忧，许多人仍保持谨慎态度。 | | | | 根据联邦公 ...

会后，多位美联储高官相继发声。副主席杰斐逊与鲍曼认为劳动力市场的强劲表现支持进一步降息；米 兰则认为中性利率水平低于此前估计，美联储需更快降息。特朗普及其政府成员也多次呼吁立即降息。 市场方面，联邦基金期货显示投资者普遍预期，美联储将在10月和12月再次降息。纪要最后强调，决策 者将继续在促进就业与控制通胀目标之间寻求平衡。值得注意的是，本次会议召开于美国政府关门前两 周，而政府停摆已导致关键经济数据的发布被迫中止。 智通财经APP获悉，周三，美联储9月会议纪要显示，多数官员认为在今年剩余时间内进一步降息是合 适的，但同时强调通胀风险仍偏向上行，显示决策层在货币政策上持谨慎态度。 纪要指出，"多数委员认为，在今年余下时间继续放松货币政策可能是适当的。"不过，"多数与会者强 调，通胀前景仍存在上行风险。"会上，美联储以11票对1票的结果决定将基准利率下调25个基点至 4.00%至4.25%区间，这是今年首次降息。唯一的反对票来自新任理事米兰，他主张降息50个基点。 会议公布的最新预测显示，按中值计算，美联储官员预计年内还将有两次各25个基点的降息，但委员会 内部分歧明显，19位与会者中有6人预计2025年仅会降 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kansas City Fed President Esther George expressed a preference against further interest rate cuts, emphasizing the need to monitor the risks of high inflation while balancing between overly tight and overly loose monetary policy [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Interest Rate Decisions - George supported the Fed's decision to lower rates by 25 basis points in September, viewing it as appropriate risk management amid a cooling labor market [1] - She indicated that the overall employment market remains healthy despite the rate cut [1] Inflation Concerns - Inflation remains a significant concern, with service sector inflation stabilizing around 3.5%, well above the Fed's 2% target [1] - A worrying trend noted by George is the broadening scope of price increases, with nearly 80% of categories in official inflation statistics showing price rises as of August, up from 70% at the beginning of the year [1] Policy Calibration - George believes that the impact of tariffs on inflation is relatively mild, suggesting that current policy is appropriately calibrated rather than indicating a need for substantial rate cuts [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices reached a new historical high last week, experiencing significant volatility with two sharp declines followed by recoveries, ultimately rising by $130 to around $3900, indicating a bullish trend and potential for further gains [1][3][11]. Price Movement - Gold prices have been on an upward trajectory, recently breaking through the $3900 mark and reaching above $3920, with expectations to challenge $3950 and possibly $4000 [5][6][7]. - The market has seen a four-month consecutive rise, with a notable increase of $400 in September alone, contributing to an overall gain of over $1000 this year [11]. Market Dynamics - Recent market movements were influenced by unexpected labor market data and a government shutdown in the U.S., which heightened fear and drove gold prices higher [13]. - The U.S. Federal Reserve's hawkish stance regarding inflation risks has also contributed to market fluctuations, with the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields strengthening [13]. Technical Analysis - Key support levels are identified at $3886 and $3830, with expectations for potential rebounds from these levels [8][11]. - Investors are advised to focus on entry and exit points for trading, emphasizing the importance of experience and risk management in achieving stable profits [14]. Broader Economic Context - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown and potential layoffs in the labor market are expected to impact economic stability, further influencing gold prices [14]. - The market remains sensitive to global economic indicators, particularly those related to the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [14].

Group 1 - The Bank of Canada has indicated that inflation risks have diminished but are not entirely eliminated, with ongoing uncertainties related to trade tensions and their impact on costs [1][2] - The central bank decided to lower interest rates to 2.5% for the first time since March, shifting focus towards addressing economic weakness as inflationary pressures ease [1] - The Canadian economy contracted by 1.6% in Q2, with exports plummeting by 27%, and the unemployment rate rose to 7.1% in August, reflecting a challenging labor market [1] Group 2 - Structural changes in demand and supply due to U.S. tariffs complicate the assessment of idle capacity in the Canadian economy, potentially weakening the job market and impacting business investment [2] - Despite the cancellation of retaliatory tariffs, concerns remain about the restructuring of global trade leading to efficiency losses and increased costs, with U.S. tariffs possibly affecting Canadian prices [2] - The Bank of Canada plans to cautiously adjust policies while balancing economic downturn risks and inflationary pressures, preparing to respond to new information as it arises [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has led to a decline in the stock market, with S&P 500 futures down 0.6% and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.75% [2] - The shutdown threatens to interrupt the S&P 500's 14% increase this year, raising concerns about the resilience of the labor market [5] - Research indicates that the shutdown could increase the U.S. unemployment rate from 4.3% to 4.7%, with potential mass layoffs by Trump exacerbating economic pain [5] Group 2 - Historical data shows that the stock market generally reacts mildly to government shutdowns, but defense contractors and airlines may face higher volatility due to reduced government revenue and federal employee travel [5] - Citigroup emphasizes that the duration of the shutdown is critical; longer shutdowns typically weaken stocks and strengthen bonds [6] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that approximately 750,000 federal employees will be forced to take leave due to the shutdown [6] Group 3 - The absence of key economic data, particularly the non-farm payroll report, raises concerns among investors about the labor market's health [6] - Historically, stock markets have tended to rise during government shutdowns, with the S&P 500, mid-cap 400, and small-cap 600 indices averaging over 3% gains during the last five shutdowns [6]