Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the U.S. labor market is experiencing an "unusual balance," with both supply and demand slowing, which poses downside risks to employment [1][2] Group 1: Labor Market Insights - Powell highlighted that the July employment data was revised down, showing an increase of only 73,000 non-farm jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 115,000 [2] - The revisions for May and June showed a downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs, indicating rising risks in the labor market [2] - Powell warned that if these risks materialize, they could lead to a surge in layoffs and an increase in the unemployment rate [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - The market interpreted Powell's stance as more dovish than expected, with a significant increase in bets for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, rising to 89% from 75% the previous day [1][3] - Powell emphasized the need for cautious policy adjustments, balancing inflation and employment goals [2][3] - The Fed's updated policy framework allows for more flexibility, indicating that employment levels may exceed real-time assessments without necessarily threatening price stability [4] Group 3: Market Reactions - Analysts noted that Powell's comments downplayed inflation risks while highlighting the urgency of addressing labor market weaknesses [3] - Financial institutions expect that unless the employment report is unexpectedly strong, a rate cut in September is almost certain [3] - Powell's cautious tone comes amid political pressure from President Trump for immediate rate cuts and calls for the resignation of Fed officials [4]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell opened the door for a potential interest rate cut in September, citing rising risks in the labor market despite ongoing inflation concerns [1] - Powell indicated that the employment market is in a "delicate balance," with significant slowdowns in both labor supply and demand, and highlighted that recent job growth has been much weaker than previous estimates [1] - Following Powell's remarks, investors increased bets on a rate cut during the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 16-17 [1] Group 2 - Powell's speech occurred against unprecedented pressure from Trump and allies demanding quick rate cuts, which raises concerns about the Fed's independence [2] - The Fed updated its monetary policy framework, removing the phrase "employment below maximum level shortage" and clarifying that employment levels may sometimes exceed real-time assessments without necessarily posing risks to price stability [2] - There is a notable division among Fed officials regarding the path for rate cuts, with some advocating caution while others suggest support for a September cut following weak employment data [2][3] Group 3 - The Fed has maintained interest rates unchanged this year after three consecutive cuts at the end of last year, with some officials worried that tariffs could lead to sustained inflation [3] - Recent data showed that wholesale prices recorded their fastest increase in three years in July, reinforcing concerns about inflation [3]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signals potential interest rate cut in September, indicating a shift in monetary policy due to changing economic risks [3][4][8] Group 1: Economic Conditions - Powell highlights that the labor market appears stable but is experiencing a unique balance due to significant slowdowns in both labor supply and demand, leading to rising downside risks for employment [3][12] - The U.S. GDP growth rate has slowed to 1.2% in the first half of the year, significantly lower than the projected 2.5% for 2024, primarily due to reduced consumer spending [13] - Inflation risks are currently tilted upwards, while employment risks are leaning downwards, creating a challenging situation for policymakers [4][14] Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - Powell suggests that the baseline outlook and risk balance may necessitate adjustments to the policy stance, with a reasonable scenario indicating a one-time increase in price levels due to tariffs [3][14] - The market now anticipates a 90% probability of a rate cut in September, up from 75% prior to Powell's speech, with traders pricing in two rate cuts by the end of the year [8] - Powell's comments indicate a dovish stance, suggesting he may support a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting [7][8] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following Powell's speech, the dollar index fell approximately 0.5%, and U.S. Treasury yields dropped, with the two-year yield decreasing by 9 basis points to 3.70% [5] - Major U.S. stock indices surged, with the Dow Jones rising over 700 points, the Nasdaq increasing by nearly 2%, and the S&P 500 gaining about 1.5% [8]

杰克逊霍尔会议：给降息预期"踩刹车"？ 2025 年 08 月 22 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：林彦 分析师：邵翔 海外市场点评 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100525030001 执业证号：S0100524080007 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：linyan@mszq.com 邮箱：shaoxiang@mszq.com 研究助理：武朔 执业证号：S0100125070003 邮箱：wushuo@mszq.com ➢ 当市场几乎一致押注 9 月降息已成定局，杰克逊霍尔会议是否会给降息预期 "泼盆冷水"？7 月以来大幅下修的非农数据和不及预期的 CPI 使得市场降息叙 事进一步强化：在就业随时可能"熄火"的风险下，只要通胀不发生恶性上升， 那么就不足以阻挡 9 月降息的步伐。 ➢ 但这也给鲍威尔带来了两难： ➢ 一方面，潜在的通胀风险仍然存在，尽管 7 月 CPI 同比以及关税影响的部分 核心商品并未出现加速上涨迹象；但 PPI 超预期上行并创下三年多来的最大增 幅，则再次点燃了通胀的隐患，这意味着关税可能已经开始推升企业成本，并将 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that inflation risks are more concerning than labor market conditions according to the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes from July [1] - There is an increasing internal division within the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy, with a focus on reviewing the monetary policy framework [1] - The expectation for interest rate cuts may narrow as inflation risks are perceived to be greater than economic risks, suggesting a continued hawkish stance on interest rates [1] Group 2 - The upcoming global central bank conference in Jackson Hole raises questions about whether Jerome Powell will signal any changes in policy [1] - Risk assets are currently suppressing risk-free assets, indicating potential market volatility in the near term [1]

美国劳工部8月21日周四公布的数据显示，截至8月16日当周，美国首次申请失业救济人数增加1.1万 人，达到23.5万，为今年6月20日以来最高，且高于预期22.5万人和前值22.4万人。四周平均值(用来平 滑波动)也升至22.625万人，为一个月来的最高值。与此同时，美国8月9日当周续请失业救济人数增加 了3万人，达到197.2万人，同样高于预期196万人和前值195.3万人，为自2021年11月以来的最高水平。 美联储官员周四对下月降息的可能性态度冷淡，这为鲍威尔在怀俄明州杰克森霍尔年会上的讲话奠定基 础。 分析称，续请人数上升，说明失业者再就业难度加大。首申人数持续上升，说明裁员可能正在增加。结 合此前7月非农就业数据也显示，招聘放缓、失业率上升，这些都表明劳动力市场较此前走软。目前的 就业市场呈现出一种"没有大量裁员，但招聘也很冷淡"的局面，企业正在应对特朗普总统的贸易保护主 义政策，该政策已将美国的平均进口关税提高到一个世纪以来的最高水平。 7月就业报告意外疲软，加上5月和6月的招聘数据大幅下调，提升借贷成本即将下调的预期，交易员甚 至预估9月的下一次会议将大幅降息。不过此后，其他政策制定者的谨慎言论 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes indicate a consensus among members that the U.S. economy has experienced a slowdown in growth during the first half of the year, with persistent high inflation levels [1] Economic Activity - Economic activity and consumer spending growth have slowed, leading to significant downside risks in the U.S. labor market, which contributes to uncertainty in economic growth prospects [1] Inflation Concerns - Most Federal Reserve members express greater concern over inflation risks compared to the labor market, resulting in the decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Schmied emphasizes that inflation risks are currently higher compared to the employment situation [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is prioritizing inflation risks over employment conditions in its economic assessment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Kansas City Federal Reserve President, Esther George, believes that inflation risks are slightly higher than employment market risks, indicating that current monetary policy is appropriately positioned [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - Esther George stated that as the dual mandate goals are approached, it becomes more challenging to determine the direction of policy rates [1] - The ongoing debate about when to lower interest rates hinges on whether individual decision-makers perceive the policy as overly tight [1] - George believes that while the policy is somewhat tight, it is on the right track [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent consumer and business price data indicate that inflation in the U.S. has accelerated in recent months [1] - There is new evidence that businesses are able to pass some of the rising import costs onto consumers [1] - The employment market has shown signs of slowing down, with an average addition of only 35,000 jobs per month over the past three months [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Kansas City Fed President, Esther George, believes that inflation risks are slightly higher than employment market risks, indicating that current monetary policy is appropriately positioned [1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy - Esther George stated that as the dual mandate goals are approached, it becomes increasingly difficult to determine the direction of policy rates [1]. - The ongoing debate about when to lower interest rates hinges on whether individual policymakers perceive the current policy as overly tight [1]. - George believes that while the policy is slightly tight, the Fed is on the right path [1]. Group 2: Inflation and Employment - Recent data shows that inflation in the U.S. has accelerated in recent months, with evidence that businesses can pass some rising import costs onto consumers [1]. - The employment market has shown signs of slowing down during the summer, with an average addition of only 35,000 jobs per month over the past three months [1].