LME伦铜向上触及9500美元/吨，最新报9500.95美元/吨，日内上涨1.45%。 ...

中国缺铜吗？中国铜储量为3000万吨，全球铜储量为8.3亿吨，我国每年都要大量进口铜矿石，优质的铜精矿数量依然不足，中国因为在电力、电子产品生 产领域，在建筑、机械和很多制造业方面，对一些元器件的制造，都需要用到铜材料，比如电线电缆的铜芯，对铜的需求稳定提升，因此成为世界铜消耗量 大的国家，2024年中国进口铜的总量达到了3604万吨，也是进口铜量可观的国家。 铜被称为红色黄金，是因为它具有特殊的紫红色的金属光泽，全球铜矿资源的供需市场将会出现进一步的变化，很多采购国家也将会争夺铜矿合作资源，变 成明里暗里的对同资源的竞争。 为何说对于红色黄金的争夺战将要打响？我国作为铜资源进口大国，其他国家也要进口铜，比如日韩，德国，印度，也是消耗铜的进口国，而且日韩国家铜 资源匮乏，对进口铜依赖度高，自身甚至没有资源。德国作为欧洲工业强国，进口铜制造电子领域的产品，消耗总量不断增加，在全球市场中占据较为重要 的位置，一旦铜出口国的产能降低，其他国家没有新增铜矿，必然会有竞争出现。不排除有的国家为了获得进口订单，抬高价格或者能接受较高的价格。 我国铜精矿进口第一大国，就是智利，2024年进口将近千万吨的规模，进口总额高达1 ...

2025 年 4 月 28 日 行业研究 2025 年 7 月国内空调排产同比增长 14%，线缆企业开工率续创年内新高 ——铜行业周报（20250421-20250425） 要点 本周小结： 7 月国内空调排产同比+14%、线缆企业开工率续创年内新高，看好 宏观预期改善后的铜价上行。截至 2025 年 4 月 25 日，SHFE 铜收盘价 77440 元 /吨，环比上周五+1.7%；LME 铜收盘价 9360 美元/吨，环比上周四+1.9%。当 前铜行业处于宏观压制与供需紧张的背离中。（1）宏观：贸易冲突对铜价的情 绪影响已基本反映，但涨幅或仍受制于关税对经济负面预期的压制。（2）供需： 国内线缆企业开工率续创年内新高，7 月空调排产延续高增长，国内延续去库。 铜价有望在国内刺激政策出台以及美国降息后逐步上行。 库存：国内铜社库环比-22%，LME 铜库存环比-6%。（1）国内港口铜精矿库存： 截至 2025 年 4 月 25 日，国内主流港口铜精矿库存 80.2 万吨，环比上周+13.5%。 （2）全球电解铜库存：截至 2025 年 4 月 18 日，全球三大交易所库存合计 50.7 万吨（近 6 年同期最 ...

期货热点追踪 伦铜涨近1%，创三周新高！铝锌镍跟风上涨，分析师称，考虑到基本面情况，我们对铜价的进一步上 涨潜力保持.....点击阅读。 相关链接 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zijin Mining [1] Core Views - The company achieved significant growth in Q1 2025, with revenue of 789.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.8% [3][16] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 101.7 billion yuan, up 62.4% year-on-year and 32.2% quarter-on-quarter [3][16] - The company is expected to benefit from the rising prices of copper and gold, with a strong outlook for both commodities [5][38] Summary by Sections Q1 2025 Performance - The company reported a revenue of 789.3 billion yuan, with a net profit of 101.7 billion yuan and a net profit margin of 12.88% [3][16] - The gross profit margin was 22.89%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.28 percentage points [3][16] Production Growth - In Q1 2025, copper production was 288,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, while gold production was 19.1 tons, up 13.4% year-on-year [4][23] - The company is on track to meet its annual production targets for copper and gold, achieving 25% and 22% of the targets respectively in Q1 [4][23] Price and Cost Analysis - The average LME copper price in Q1 2025 was 9,352 USD/ton, a year-on-year increase of 10.8% [5][37] - The average Comex gold price was 2,868 USD/ounce, up 38.5% year-on-year [5][38] - The company maintained low production costs, with significant improvements in gross margins across its key products [6][50] Financial Health - The company's asset-liability ratio decreased to 54.89%, down 3.71 percentage points year-on-year [8][58] - The return on equity (ROE) improved to 7.0%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.60 percentage points [8][58] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The report forecasts net profits of 390 billion yuan, 430 billion yuan, and 467 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [64] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the global mining industry, with strong growth potential and effective cost control [64]

铜价接连上涨沪铜今天小幅回落 近期，沪铜期货主力合约整体经历了一轮明显的升势，并于3月26日创出年内新高。3月27日，国内沪铜期货有所调整主力合约下跌1.03%，报81560元/吨，但 年内累计涨幅仍超过10%。 铜价近期凌厉的涨势引起市场广泛关注。 LME铜期货也有类似的表现，COMEX铜期货的涨势则更为凌厉。行情数据显示，截至当地时间3月26日，LME铜期货主力合约年内累计涨幅也超过10%，而 COMEX铜期货主力合约3月以来累计涨幅约15%，年内累计涨幅则已达到约三成，价格已于近期创出历史新高。 对于近期铜价总体上涨的原因，中信期货研究所有色与新材料组资深研究员郑非凡在接受证券时报记者采访时认为，近期铜价强势上涨受到了供应端紧张、 需求端改善和政策扰动三个方面的强力推动。从供应端来看，全球铜矿供给仍然紧张，供应扰动频发，例如：3月25日嘉能可旗下的智利阿尔托诺特 （Altonorte）冶炼厂因熔炉故障停产，产能约34.9万吨，占据了不小的市场份额。而此次停产正值特朗普在全球范围内抢先征收潜在关税之际，其减产预计 会加剧全球精炼铜市场的供需紧张。同时，铜矿现货加工费（TC）持续下滑，目前已经降至负20美元 ...

铜价历史性破万：谁在收割这场金属狂欢？ 各位老铁，去年某位投资者在酒局上的戏言成真了！"2025年我只爱铜，黄金靠边站"——这句狂言正在被市场验证。纽约铜期货年内狂飙27%，伦敦铜价突 破1万美元/吨大关，这场金属狂欢背后藏着多少财富密码？咱们来扒一扒。 【铜价暴走的幕后推手】 这场史诗级行情要从美国关税大棒说起。当华盛顿突然威胁对进口铜加征关税，全球贸易商连夜上演"铜矿大迁徙"，亚洲库存疯狂涌向美国。结果美国铜库 存骤降，3月缺口高达15万吨，相当于全球两周用量！叠加新能源车、风电这些"用铜怪兽"的需求暴增，而智利、秘鲁铜矿产量连续三年下滑，开采成本飙 升30%，铜价想不飞都难。 【暗流涌动的风险】 纽约和伦敦铜价差飙至1200美元/吨，套利空间大到离谱。贸易商们疯狂跨市场倒货，单船利润够买套三线城市房子。高盛更是火上浇油，预言明年铜价冲 11500美元，胆大的散户已经开始用5倍杠杆押注。 2. 矿企印钞机 紫金矿业去年狂挖101万吨铜，洛阳钼业刚果矿场昼夜不停。铜价每涨1%，这些巨头的利润就跳涨3%！连刚果的铜矿股市值都翻倍，当地酋长们集体换上 了特斯拉。 3. 电缆厂的涨价艺术 铜材占电缆成本八成，太阳 ...

著名"金属交易员"：铜价将创历史新高，再涨1/3！ 前托克铜业掌门人Kostas Bintas预测，铜价有望再上涨三分之一。 尽管LME铜价今年已飙升12%，Bintas近期在接受采访时表示，预计铜价仍可能继续飙升至12,000美元或13,000美元每吨的历史新高，比当前水平 高出三分之一。Kostas Bintas曾把托克集团的铜业务做到全球领先，如今他担任能源交易商Mercuria金属业务的负责人。 在上海期货交易所，铜价已进入一年多以来的最大逆价差，期限结构呈现明显的远月下降趋势，近期合约的交易价格高于远期合约，这表明供应 紧张。 此外，关税威胁已导致美国废铜出口枯竭。全球约三分之一的铜产量来自废铜，而废铜通常作为市场缓冲，在价格高时增加，在价格低时减少。 尽管美国尚未对进口铜征收广泛关税，但美国国内铜价已飙升至每吨1400美元以上，高于世界其他地区，这促使贸易商将所有可用的铜运往美 国。宾塔斯说： 就每吨铜的利润而言，我从未见过如此美妙的交易机会。 全球铜供应紧张现象初显 铜期货贴水和废铜出口下降，初步显示出当前全球市场铜供应紧张的迹象。 Mercuria研究主管Nick Snowdon表示： 到2月 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the hotel industry, particularly for Junting Hotel, with a focus on differentiated product offerings and management strategies [4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Junting Hotel is leveraging a "one store, one product" strategy to create a premium model, aiming for non-linear growth through various expansion methods including management contracts and franchising [4]. - The anticipated growth in the number of direct-operated and managed hotels is expected to drive revenue and profitability, with projections for revenue growth rates of 17.42%, 26.05%, and 30.42% from 2024 to 2026 [5]. - The insurance sector, particularly China Life Insurance, is noted for its strong performance, with expected revenue growth rates of 14%, 6%, and 8% from 2024 to 2026, driven by premium growth and cost optimization [6]. - Qingdao Bank is positioned for growth due to its focus on debt resolution and risk assessment improvements, with projected net profit growth from 2024 to 2026 [8]. Summary by Sections Junting Hotel - The company is expected to achieve a RevPAR decline of approximately 5% in 2024, followed by a recovery in subsequent years due to new brand launches and improved occupancy rates [5]. - Revenue projections for Junting Hotel are set at 627 million, 790 million, and 1,031 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profit forecasts of 29 million, 65 million, and 144 million yuan [5]. China Life Insurance - The company is projected to have revenues of 630,610 million, 666,554 million, and 723,096 million yuan from 2024 to 2026, with net profits expected to be 42,874 million, 43,833 million, and 52,140 million yuan [6]. Qingdao Bank - The bank's net profit is forecasted to reach 4,264 million, 4,707 million, and 5,241 million yuan from 2024 to 2026, supported by improved credit growth and risk management [8]. Traditional Chinese Medicine - The report anticipates a performance turning point for the traditional Chinese medicine sector in Q2 2025, with strong brands expected to outperform due to limited impact from centralized procurement [9]. Industrial Metals - The report indicates a bullish outlook for copper prices, driven by macroeconomic policies and strong fundamentals, with expectations for price increases in Q2 [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - Domestic port copper concentrate inventory has rapidly decreased, indicating tightening supply and a bullish outlook for copper prices [1]. - As of March 14, 2025, SHFE copper price is 80,500 RMB/ton, up 2.8% week-on-week, while LME copper price is 9,793 USD/ton, up 2.0% week-on-week [1][15]. - The report anticipates continued upward movement in copper prices in 2025 due to tightening supply and improving demand [4]. Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 3% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory fell by 9% [2]. - As of March 14, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stands at 575,000 tons, down 5.8% week-on-week [2]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory as of March 3, 2025, totaled 613,000 tons, a decrease of 1.6% week-on-week [2]. Supply - The TC spot price as of March 14 is -15.9 USD/pound, continuing to set historical lows [3]. - In February 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.0582 million tons, up 4.4% month-on-month and 11.4% year-on-year [3]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper is 2,330 RMB/ton, an increase of 72 RMB/ton week-on-week [2][48]. Demand - The cable industry's operating rate increased by 4.6 percentage points week-on-week, reaching 77.21% [3]. - In January 2025, household air conditioner production decreased by 4.2% year-on-year, while sales increased by 8.7% [3]. - The operating rate for brass rods was 40.4% in February 2025, down 1.3 percentage points month-on-month but up 13.7 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Futures - SHFE copper active contract positions increased by 38% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions rose by 43% [4]. - As of March 14, 2025, SHFE copper active contract positions reached 230,000 lots, a 38.1% increase week-on-week [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, with a focus on Minmetals Resources [4].