Core Viewpoints - The current sentiment in the precious metals market remains bullish, with expectations of price increases, particularly for silver, amid a backdrop of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Analysis - Wengang Futures suggests maintaining a bullish outlook on precious metals prices, particularly silver, due to the anticipated rise in interest rate cut expectations following the appointment of a new Federal Reserve chairman [1] - Guotou Futures notes that the recent drop in initial jobless claims in the U.S. indicates a weaker precious metals market, with potential for a phase of consolidation as the Fed's dovish stance is less than expected [1][2] - Galaxy Futures highlights the persistent risk of stagflation in the U.S., which continues to provide a support base for precious metals prices despite recent market adjustments [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Capital.com analysts indicate that the market sentiment has cooled, with the Fed's lack of dovish guidance leading to increased yields and a stronger dollar, which may hinder gold prices from breaking above $3,700 per ounce [2] - Zaner Metals emphasizes that despite short-term volatility, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact, supported by geopolitical risks and central banks' continued accumulation of gold [3]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - On September 17, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, a decrease of 25bps[1] - The dot plot indicates two more rate cuts expected in 2025, but only one in 2026, suggesting a potential hawkish shift[1] - The Fed's decision is characterized as a "risk-management cut," emphasizing a cautious approach rather than a preemptive one[2] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed acknowledges a slowdown in the job market, with job gains slowing and the unemployment rate edging up but remaining low[3] - Inflation expectations have increased, with the Fed noting that inflation has moved up and remains elevated[3] - The SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) shows an upward revision of GDP growth for 2025 from 1.4% to 1.6%[4] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, market pricing indicates expectations for a 25bps cut in October and December[8] - The market has priced in a total of 75bps of cuts across three meetings in 2025, but Powell's comments have tempered expectations for further cuts[8] - The S&P and Nasdaq experienced volatility, while the Dow Jones rose, and the dollar strengthened post-announcement[8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center of gravity moving downward and weak operation. The price of aluminum ingots is expected to adjust at a high level in the short term, with the macro "boot" landing and the inventory still slightly accumulating [1][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices. The view is that it will move in a volatile and consolidating manner. Key factors to watch include macro policies and downstream demand [3] - During the Spring Festival, short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region will have a production halt from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of building steel production. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have or will stop production, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the halt [2] Real Estate - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous week and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] Aluminum and Alumina - The price of aluminum ingots was consolidating at a high level yesterday. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected on Wednesday, but analysts have different interpretations of the Fed's signals. The Fed's dot - plot points to a steady easing pace [2] - The alumina market remains in an oversupply situation. The domestic alumina operating capacity is at a high level, the import window is open, and the inventory is high. As of Thursday, the national metallurgical - grade alumina's total built - in capacity is 110.32 million tons/year, the operating total capacity is 92.33 million tons/year, and the weekly national alumina operating rate increased by 0.92 percentage points to 83.69% [3] - The raw material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants is high, and the spot procurement is inactive. The demand side shows signs of recovery, with the overall starting rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increasing by 0.4 percentage points to 62.1% last week. On September 18, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 638,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from Monday and 13,000 tons from last Thursday. Whether the inventory decline inflection point can appear in late September needs further observation [3]

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文字早评 2025/09/19 星期五 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、商务部回应 Tiktok 问题：绝不会以牺牲原则立场、企业利益和国际公平正义为代价寻求达成任何协 议; 2、英伟达宣布 50 亿美元入股英特尔。在数据中心领域，英特尔将为英伟达定制 x86 CPU，由英伟达将 其集成至人工智能基础设施平台并投放市场; 3、电影《731》今天在全球上映，单日票房突破 3 亿，刷新中国影史纪录； 4、世运电路："芯创智载"新一代 PCB 产品预计 2026 年中投产 未来可能供货特斯拉； 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.24%/-0.49%/-1.11%/-1.78%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.39%/-1.19%/-2.98%/-5.28%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.29%/-1.42%/-3.52%/-6.37%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.07%/-0.04%/-0.01%/-0.01%。 【策略观点】 经过前期持续上涨后，AI 等高位热点板块近期出现分歧，资金高低切换，快速轮动，市场风险偏好有所 降低。叠加市场成交量的萎缩，短期指数面临一定的调 ...

【行情资讯】 贵金属日报 2025-09-19 贵金属 沪金跌 0.71 %，报 828.08 元/克，沪银跌 0.06 %，报 9902.00 元/千克；COMEX 金跌 0.08 %， 报 3675.40 美元/盎司，COMEX 银跌 0.09 %，报 42.08 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.11%，美元指数报 97.35 ； 昨夜公布的美国经济数据具备韧性，美元指数表现强势，金银价格短线承压。 美国至 9 月 13 日当周初请失业金人数为 23.1 万人，低于预期的 24 万人以及前值的 26.4 万人。美国 9 月费城联储制造业指数为 23.2，大幅高于预期的 2.5 和前值的-0.3。 本周进行的联储议息会议中，鲍威尔本人对于货币政策的表态总体偏中性，他表示"没有必要 快速调降利率"，并从 pce 的角度认为近期通胀偏高。 但鲍威尔承认了劳动力市场存在的风 险，这是美联储传声筒在会议前表示需要关注的重点。同时，他认为关税对于消费者迄今而言 的影响比较小。对于降息的性质方面，鲍威尔定调本次是"风险管理式"降息，这一定性缓解 了市场对于后续海外经济衰退的预期，对于板块内工业属性更明 ...

Group 1: Macro Insights - The Federal Reserve has resumed interest rate cuts, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25% from 4.25%-4.5%, marking a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [4][5] - The Fed's dot plot indicates a downward revision in rate expectations, predicting two more rate cuts in 2025, with the median expected federal funds rate falling to 3.6% [4][6] - The Fed's internal divisions are evident, with varying opinions on the extent of rate cuts, reflecting differing views on economic conditions [5][6] Group 2: Company Overview - Qingmu Technology - Qingmu Technology is positioned as a leading e-commerce service provider, offering comprehensive services including operational management, brand incubation, and digital marketing [8][9] - The company has evolved from a footwear e-commerce operator to a diversified e-commerce service enterprise, with a significant focus on brand incubation and operational management [9][10] - The revenue composition for H1 2025 includes e-commerce operations (45%), brand incubation management (35%), and distribution agency (14%) [9][10] Group 3: Business Growth and Strategy - The e-commerce operational management segment has shown steady growth, particularly in the apparel sector, while also expanding into the trendy toy market, contributing to new revenue streams [10][12] - Qingmu Technology has successfully partnered with brands like Pop Mart and Jellycat, which have shown significant revenue growth, enhancing the company's market position [12][13] - The brand incubation segment is rapidly growing, focusing on health consumer products and pet food, with successful entries of brands like Cumlaude Lab and Zuccari into the Chinese market [13][14] Group 4: Industry Insights - Automotive Sector - The automotive industry has seen a 12.9% year-on-year increase in passenger car wholesale sales in H1 2025, driven by policies like trade-in programs and subsidies [17][18] - Despite revenue growth, profit margins are under pressure due to intensified competition, with the automotive sector's net profit declining by 1.8% year-on-year in H1 2025 [17][18] - The truck segment is experiencing a recovery in sales and profitability, with a slight improvement in gross margins, indicating a potential upward trend in market conditions [19][20] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for the automotive sector, driven by trade-in policies and a shift towards high-end and smart vehicle offerings [21][22] - Recommended companies include those positioned for high-end market growth and those benefiting from advancements in smart driving technologies [21][22] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong operational cycles and those that are well-positioned in the supply chain for future growth [21][22]

美联储为何选择在这一时刻重启降息？东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监白雪对上海证券报记者表示，这 一决策同时反映了美国就业市场下行的压力，以及对政治干预与通胀风险的权衡。会议释放的信号清晰 表明，就业已取代通胀成为当前政策的首要关注点。 选择下调25个基点而非50个基点，也显现出美联储正试图平衡其双重使命：一方面须防范美国就业市场 疲软的风险；另一方面警惕过早降息重新点燃通胀。 "当前美国就业市场出现明显的恶化信号，美联储9月降息存在必要性，降息25个基点符合预期。"中信 证券首席经济学家明明对上海证券报记者表示，美国新增非农就业人数3个月均值仍在3万人左右，处于 历史低位，并且8月失业率走高、职位空缺数下降也显示就业市场的走弱态势。 从经济预测来看，美联储对美国经济前景的预期有所改善，但通胀仍面临上行风险。美联储将今年和明 年美国GDP增速预测均上调了0.2个百分点，分别为1.6%和1.8%，同时上调通胀预期，并将通胀达标时 间推迟至2028年。"这表明美联储准备在短期内容忍适度通胀，以换取就业市场的稳定。"白雪说。 ◎记者 黄冰玉 陈佳怡 时隔9个月，美联储再度降息——北京时间9月18日凌晨，美联储在议息会议上 ...

北京时间9月18日凌晨，美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）公布最新货币政策会议纪要，决定将联邦基 金利率目标区间下调25个基点，至4%—4.25%之间。这是美联储2025年第一次降息，也是继2024年三次 降息后的再次降息。 据悉，此次政策调整的背后，是美联储平衡通胀与就业的现实考量。近期指标显示，美国上半年经济活 动增长放缓，就业增长放缓。经济前景的不确定性依然存在，就业下行风险上升。尽管美国通胀率有所 上升，并维持在略高水平，但近几个月新增就业远低于预期让美联储终于采取降息措施。 今年首次降息 一如市场预期，美联储降息25基点。当地时间9月17日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调到4% —4.25%之间的水平。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，当前劳动力市场活力不足且略显疲软，降息旨在提振劳 动力市场。 这是美联储今年以来的首次降息。9个月时间，也是一场关于通胀预期与经济数据的博弈。2025年上半 年，美联储历次议息会议将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%—4.5%之间不变，多名官员强调"在降 息之前，需要看到通胀进一步下降的证据"。到6月，美联储内部意见分歧明显，联邦公开市场委员会会 议纪要显示，19名官员中只 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points marks the beginning of a new preventive rate-cutting cycle, with expectations for further cuts in October and December [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Predictions - Over 15 brokerage firms have released reports interpreting the Fed's rate cut, with "in line with expectations" being the dominant sentiment [1]. - Most brokerages anticipate an additional 50 basis points of cuts within the year, but long-term cuts may be less than previously expected [1][4]. - The consensus among analysts is that the U.S. economy may achieve a soft landing, although some warn that excessive easing could lead to stagflation risks [1][11]. Group 2: Individual Brokerage Insights - **CITIC Securities**: Predicts further cuts in October and December, but the path for rates next year remains unclear [3]. - **China Merchants Securities**: Indicates that the Fed's dot plot suggests a lower rate cut than market expectations, with potential volatility in risk assets [6]. - **Guotai Junan Securities**: Believes the new rate-cutting cycle will support market liquidity and stock performance, despite a slower long-term pace [8][10]. Group 3: Economic Implications - **Zhejiang Merchants Securities**: Describes the rate cut as a "risk management" measure, indicating a hawkish tone and uncertainty about future cuts [4][13]. - **Huatai Securities**: Adjusts its forecast for rate cuts from two to three times this year, citing ongoing pressures in the job market [4][12]. - **CICC**: Warns that excessive monetary easing could exacerbate inflation and lead to a stagflation scenario [11]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - **CITIC Jian Investment**: Highlights that real estate and manufacturing sectors are likely to benefit first from the rate cuts [7]. - **Guangdong Development Securities**: Suggests that the Fed's actions may create more room for China's monetary policy adjustments [2][6]. - **Dongwu Securities**: Notes that the Fed's guidance indicates an additional rate cut next year, which may support market sentiment [2].