Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has experienced significant fluctuations, with gold prices reaching historical highs before a sharp decline following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, indicating a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions and Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, which was already anticipated by the market, leading to a sell-off in gold as traders took profits [1][2]. - Prior to the rate cut, gold prices surged from $3,350 to $3,744 per ounce, reflecting excessive market trading on the expectation of multiple rate cuts [2]. - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious statements post-meeting indicated that the rate cut was a risk management measure rather than the start of a sustained easing cycle, contributing to the decline in gold prices [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The U.S. non-farm payrolls data showed a significant drop in job growth, with only 22,000 jobs added in August, far below expectations, which influenced the Fed's decision to cut rates [4]. - Despite the weak employment data, inflation remains resilient, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 2.9% year-on-year, suggesting that the economic context differs from previous years [4]. - Analysts predict that the Fed may implement two more rate cuts by the end of the year, each by 25 basis points, which could support gold prices [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Market sentiment has shifted, with some analysts warning of potential short-term profit-taking in the stock market following the Fed's rate cut, which could lead to increased interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [6]. - Geopolitical risks, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions, have heightened investor demand for gold, although the primary driver for gold's price movement remains monetary policy expectations [7]. - Long-term, concerns about U.S. dollar credibility and the expansion of U.S. debt could provide upward momentum for gold prices, despite short-term fluctuations [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed has initiated a new round of interest - rate cuts, and precious metal prices will continue to strengthen. "Preventive interest - rate cuts" ease the overseas recession expectation, driving the gold - silver ratio down, and silver will outperform gold in this interest - rate cut cycle [1][11]. - The dovish monetary policy stance of new Fed governor Milan on Friday drove silver prices to recover previous losses. The market should pay attention to the possibility of Milan becoming the new Fed chair. The current strategy for precious metals is to buy on dips, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold at 823 - 850 yuan/gram and that for Shanghai silver at 9799 - 10800 yuan/kilogram [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Market Outlook - **Weekly Review**: Gold and silver prices were strong this week. Shanghai gold rose 0.93% to 838.26 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver rose 2.34% to 10204.00 yuan/kilogram, COMEX gold rose 1.05% to 3719.40 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 1.60% to 43.37 dollars/ounce. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.14%, and the U.S. dollar index rose 0.03% to 97.65 [11]. - **Fed's Interest - Rate Cut**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but the monetary policy stance was less dovish than expected. The "risk - management - style" interest - rate cut eased the market's expectation of an overseas economic recession, which is positive for silver with more obvious industrial attributes. The fact that "Trump - faction" governors did not vote against and Powell's statement of "acting with a high degree of unity today" dampened the market's dovish expectations [11]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: The "preventive interest - rate cut" will drive the gold - silver ratio down, and silver will perform better than gold as the overseas recession expectation eases and global manufacturing PMI recovers [11]. - **Milan's Statement**: Milan, a new Fed governor, made a very dovish statement on Friday, driving silver prices to recover previous losses. His statement had a significant impact on the market's expectation of the Fed's monetary policy [11]. - **Market Outlook**: After Milan's statement, silver prices were strong. The current strategy for precious metals is to buy on dips, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold at 823 - 850 yuan/gram and that for Shanghai silver at 9799 - 10800 yuan/kilogram [11]. 3.2 Market Review - **Prices**: Gold and silver prices were strong. Shanghai gold rose 0.93%, Shanghai silver rose 2.34%, COMEX gold rose 1.05%, and COMEX silver rose 1.60% [11][29]. - **Positions**: Domestic and foreign gold and silver positions increased. Shanghai gold's total positions rose 1.33% to 44.89 million lots, COMEX gold's total positions rose 1.29% to 51.62 million lots as of the latest report period. Shanghai silver's total positions rose to 911,000 lots on Friday night, and COMEX silver's total positions rose 3.99% to 163,000 lots as of the latest report period [32][35]. - **Managed Fund Net Positions**: As of the September 16 report period, COMEX gold and silver managed fund net positions declined. COMEX gold's managed fund net position decreased by 4548 lots to 158,900 lots, and COMEX silver's managed fund net position decreased slightly by 49 lots to 35,800 lots [37]. - **ETF Positions**: As of September 19, the total position of gold ETFs was 2229.7 tons, and the total position of foreign silver ETFs was 27,681.17 tons [40]. 3.3 Interest Rates and Liquidity - **U.S. Treasury Yields**: The report shows the trends of U.S. long - and short - term Treasury yields and the spreads between different - term Treasury bonds [51][52]. - **Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations**: The report presents the trends of the U.S. federal funds rate, overnight reverse - repurchase rate, 10 - year nominal interest rate, real interest rate, and inflation expectation [54][55]. - **Fed's Balance Sheet**: This week, the U.S. Treasury's TGA account balance increased by 13.9557 billion dollars to 80.7142 billion dollars, and the deposit reserve balance decreased by 13.055 billion dollars to 3.02 trillion dollars [57][61]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - **CPI & PCE**: In August, the U.S. CPI was 2.9% year - on - year, higher than the previous value of 2.70%. The seasonally - adjusted CPI was 0.4% month - on - month, higher than the expected 0.30% and the previous value of 0.20%. The un - seasonally - adjusted core CPI was 3.1% year - on - year, and the seasonally - adjusted core CPI was 0.3% month - on - month, in line with expectations and the previous value [66]. - **Employment**: The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending September 13 was 231,000, lower than the expected 240,000 and the previous value of 264,000 [69]. - **PMI & PPI**: In August, the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than the expected 49, and the ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 52, higher than the expected and previous value of 50.1 [72]. - **New Home Data**: In July, the annualized total number of new home starts in the U.S. was 1.428 million, significantly higher than the expected 1.29 million and the previous value of 1.358 million. The annualized total number of building permits was 1.354 million, lower than the expected 1.386 million and the previous value of 1.393 million [75]. 3.5 Precious Metal Spreads - **Gold Basis**: The report shows the trends of the gold TD - SHFE basis [78][79]. - **Silver Basis**: The report shows the trends of the silver TD - SHFE basis [81][82]. - **Gold and Silver Domestic - Foreign Spreads**: The report shows the trends of the domestic - foreign spreads of gold and silver [84][85]. 3.6 Precious Metal Inventories - **Silver Inventory**: The report shows the trends of silver inventories in different exchanges [91][92]. - **Gold Inventory**: The report shows the trends of gold inventories in COMEX and LBMA [95].

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is under significant pressure, facing high national debt, elevated unemployment rates, and rising prices, leading to speculation about an impending interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - On September 18, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since January of this year [1] Federal Reserve Actions - During the meeting, all 11 voting members supported the rate cut, with only the newly appointed member advocating for a 50 basis point reduction [3] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management" measure aimed at addressing downward pressure on the U.S. job market, as August's non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years [3] Market Reactions - The rate cut signals a preemptive response to the U.S. economic downturn, with implications for global asset prices, capital flows, and monetary policy rhythms in other countries, particularly affecting the Chinese A-share market [5] - The consensus within the Federal Reserve indicates a stronger agreement on further rate cuts, with the number of members supporting three cuts this year increasing from 2 to 9 since June 2024 [6] Capital Flows and A-share Market - The A-share market is expected to benefit from the rebalancing of global capital, with passive fund inflows from Northbound capital reaching $3.684 billion in August, a significant increase from $313 million in July [8] - Although active funds are still experiencing outflows, the scale of these outflows has narrowed considerably, indicating a growing attractiveness of RMB assets [8] Policy Measures in China - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has introduced a series of measures in collaboration with the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Financial Regulatory Bureau, including rate cuts and adjustments to mortgage policies, signaling a commitment to stabilize market expectations [9] - The PBOC's recent actions provide more flexibility in monetary policy, especially following the Fed's rate cut, which could further support the A-share market [9] Export and Manufacturing Outlook - China's exports grew by 12.3% in March, although this rate fell to 4.4% in August, maintaining a medium-speed growth trend, which is crucial for stabilizing growth [11] - The global trend of interest rate cuts is expected to improve the external demand environment, supporting the profitability outlook for Chinese manufacturing in the coming months [11] Sector-Specific Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector is benefiting from a weaker dollar and heightened risk aversion, with prices for gold and copper continuing to rise [13] - The brokerage sector is seeing improved profitability due to increased market trading activity, while sectors like computing hardware, robotics, and solid-state batteries are performing well under the dual drivers of policy support and liquidity [14]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25% was anticipated, but the market reaction was unexpected, with the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields rising sharply after a brief dip, while gold experienced significant selling pressure [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators and Fed's Actions - Fed Chairman Powell labeled the rate cut as a "risk management" move, indicating that the motivation was not due to an existing recession but rather to hedge against future uncertainties [3][5]. - Despite the rate cut, Powell acknowledged rising risks in the labor market, with both labor supply and hiring demand declining sharply, creating a "peculiar balance" [5]. - Inflation and unemployment rates, which typically move in opposite directions, have both shown upward trends recently, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [5][8]. Group 2: Fed's Forecasts and Political Pressures - On the same day as the rate cut, the Fed raised its GDP growth forecasts for the next three years while lowering unemployment rate predictions for the next two years, highlighting internal contradictions in its outlook [7][8]. - Political pressure from the White House is increasingly influencing Fed decisions, as evidenced by the dissenting vote from newly appointed board member Milan, who advocated for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut [10][12]. - The market's trust in the Fed's independence is eroding, with concerns that the Fed's future policy may lean more towards government preferences due to ongoing political pressures [14][15]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Liquidity Concerns - The market has accepted predictions of one to two more rate cuts this year, but largely ignored the Fed's long-term projections, reflecting skepticism about the Fed's future policy direction [17]. - A more pressing concern is the tightening liquidity in the banking system, as indicated by the overnight financing rates in the repo market exceeding the Fed's policy rate ceiling, signaling potential financial instability [20][22]. - The ongoing reduction of the Fed's balance sheet is drawing liquidity from the market, which could lead to a situation where the Fed may need to reverse course and expand its balance sheet again, signaling a stronger easing than the rate cut itself [22][24].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has experienced significant fluctuations recently, with gold prices reaching historical highs before a sharp decline following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut [2][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On September 18, the COMEX gold futures contract peaked at $3744 per ounce, marking a historical high since its listing, but subsequently fell by $39.6 to close at $3678 per ounce [2]. - As of September 19, COMEX gold was reported at $3677 per ounce, indicating a notable drop after the initial surge [2]. - The market had already priced in the expectation of a rate cut before the Federal Reserve's announcement, leading to a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Impact - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was perceived as a risk management move rather than the start of a sustained easing cycle, which contributed to profit-taking among gold bulls [2][3]. - Market expectations had previously anticipated two rate cuts by the end of the year, but the actual cut was less than expected, leading to a sharp decline in gold prices [3][4]. - The cautious tone of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, emphasizing the uncertainty of future rate cuts, did not provide a strong signal for further easing, causing market doubts about the rate cut trajectory [3][4]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Expectations - Recent U.S. non-farm payroll data showed a significant drop, with only 22,000 jobs added in August, far below expectations, which raised concerns about the economy [5]. - Despite the weak employment data, inflation remains resilient, with the core PCE inflation rate still above the 2% target, indicating that the economy may not require aggressive rate cuts [5][6]. - The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for October 28, with expectations of two more rate cuts this year, each by 25 basis points, which could support gold prices [6][7]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Geopolitical Factors - Wall Street's outlook on gold has shifted, with some analysts warning of potential market corrections following the Fed's rate cut, as the market had already priced in the easing [7][8]. - Geopolitical risks, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions, have heightened investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold [8][9]. - Long-term factors driving gold prices include concerns over U.S. dollar credibility and the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policies, which may provide upward momentum for gold [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the precious metals market may remain under pressure and experience a corrective trend. The market may enter an oscillatory range as there is a lack of further bullish catalysts, and the interpretation of Powell's speech is "cautiously dovish", deviating from market expectations. In the long - term, if the September economic data continues to be weak, the market may raise the expectation of interest rate cuts this year again, and gold and silver prices are expected to break through previous highs. The U.S. government's long - standing debt credit problem also strongly supports the monetary attribute of gold. The recommended strategy is to try short positions lightly at high prices and focus on range - bound trading [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: At the beginning of the week, the precious metals market continued to rise strongly driven by the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts. Before the FOMC meeting, gold and silver futures prices reached new historical highs. After the interest rate cut was realized, the market selling pressure increased significantly, and long - position funds flowed out. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. The risk - balance wording in the policy statement changed significantly, and it first clearly admitted the economic slowdown, employment slowdown, a slight rise in the unemployment rate, and persistent high inflation in the first half of the year. The latest SEP shows a slight downward shift in the policy path compared to the June forecast. The median forecast of the federal funds rate at the end of 2025 is 3.6%, implying a further 50 - 75 basis points of easing space this year. The inflation and labor market forecasts were also readjusted. The initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week had the largest single - week decline in nearly four years, but the continuing claims remained above 1.9 million, indicating structural problems in the labor market. U.S. retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, and real retail sales increased by 2.1% year - on - year [8]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, the precious metals market may be under pressure and correct. The follow - up market trend depends on the August PCE data and the tone of the Fed officials' subsequent speeches. In the long - term, if the September economic data is weak, the expectation of interest rate cuts may rise again, and gold and silver prices may break through previous highs. The recommended strategy is to try short positions lightly at high prices and focus on range - bound trading. The recommended range for the main SHFE gold 2512 contract is 800 - 850 yuan/gram, and for the main SHFE silver 2512 contract is 9800 - 10100 yuan/kg [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Changes**: As of September 19, 2025, COMEX silver was at $42.29 per ounce, down 1.10% from last week; the main SHFE silver 2512 contract was at 9971 yuan/kg, up 0.41% month - on - month. COMEX gold was at $3679.40 per ounce, basically unchanged from last week; the main SHFE gold 2512 contract was at 830.56 yuan/gram [11] - **ETF Holdings**: As of September 18, 2025, the net holdings of the SPDR gold ETF decreased by 0.23% month - on - month, while the net holdings of the SLV silver ETF increased by 0.90% month - on - month [16] - **Speculative Net Positions**: As of September 9, 2025, the total and net positions of COMEX gold increased by 3.39% and 4.89% respectively month - on - month, while the total and net positions of COMEX silver decreased by 1.05% and 3.55% respectively month - on - month [21] - **Basis Changes**: As of September 19, 2025, the gold basis was 0.43 yuan/gram, and the silver basis was - 24 yuan/kg [25] - **Inventory Trends**: As of September 18, 2025, COMEX gold inventory increased by 0.95% month - on - month, and SHFE gold inventory increased by 22.19% month - on - month. COMEX silver inventory increased by 0.80% month - on - month, while SHFE silver inventory decreased by 1.50% month - on - month [31] 3.3 Industrial Supply and Demand Situation 3.3.1 Silver Industry - **Import Volume**: As of July 2025, China's silver import volume decreased by 7.46% month - on - month, while the import volume of silver ore sand increased by 22.32% month - on - month [35] - **Downstream Demand**: As of August 2025, the monthly output of integrated circuits was 4.25 million pieces, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.20%, driven by the increasing demand for silver in the semiconductor industry [41] - **Supply - Demand Pattern**: As of the end of 2024, the industrial demand for silver increased by 4% year - on - year, the demand for coins and net bars decreased by 22% year - on - year, and the net investment demand for silver ETFs increased from - 37.6 million ounces to 61.6 million ounces. The total demand for silver decreased by 3% year - on - year. The total supply of silver increased by 2% year - on - year, and the supply - demand gap decreased by 26% month - on - month [47][51] 3.3.2 Gold Industry - **Price Fluctuations**: As of September 19, 2025, the gold recycling price in China decreased by 0.27% month - on - month. The gold prices of Laofengxiang decreased by 0.19% month - on - month, Zhou Dafu increased by 0.47% month - on - month, and Liulifuzhou remained unchanged [55] - **Supply - Demand Pattern**: According to the World Gold Council, in Q2 2025, the investment demand for gold ETFs declined slightly. The central bank's gold - buying pace slowed down, and the high gold price also led to a marginal decline in the demand for gold jewelry manufacturing [57] 3.4 Macroeconomic and Options - **Dollar and Treasury Yields**: The U.S. dollar fluctuated weakly this week, and the yield of 10 - year U.S. Treasury bonds increased slightly. The 10Y - 2Y Treasury yield spread widened, the CBOE gold volatility decreased, and the ratio of SP500 to COMEX gold price continued to decline [61][65] - **Central Bank Gold - Buying**: In September 2025, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by about 1.87 tons [74]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper market may be supported by a slight reduction in supply and a gradual warming of demand. The Fed's September interest - rate meeting announced a 25 - basis - point rate cut, and the dot - plot implies further rate cuts. Domestically, policies to expand service consumption were introduced. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and the profit of smelters may be affected, leading to a possible reduction in refined copper supply. The decline in copper prices has boosted downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and the pre - holiday inventory - building demand has increased domestic demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with light positions [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated and declined weekly, with a weekly change of - 1.42% and an amplitude of 2.5%. The closing price of the main contract was 79,910 yuan/ton [4]. - **International Situation**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, and the dot - plot implies a total of 75 - basis - point cuts this year and 25 - basis - point cuts next year [4]. - **Domestic Situation**: The State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce policies to expand service consumption [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The copper concentrate TC spot index is negative, and the supply of copper ore is tight. The supply of raw materials is tight, and the decline in copper prices restricts smelter profits, so domestic refined copper supply is expected to converge. The decline in copper prices boosts downstream purchasing, and pre - holiday inventory - building demand increases domestic demand, leading to a slight reduction in social inventory [4]. - **Strategy**: Light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to rhythm and trading risks [4]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Contract**: As of September 19, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was 80 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 385 yuan/ton. The main contract price was 79,910 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,150 yuan/ton, and the position was 116,552 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 70,324 lots [9]. - **Spot Price**: As of September 19, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 79,990 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,130 yuan/ton [15]. - **Cross - Month Spread**: As of September 19, 2025, the cross - month spread of the Shanghai copper main contract was 30 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 250 yuan/ton [15]. - **Premium**: As of the latest data this week, the CIF average premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 59 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0 US dollars/ton [21]. - **Position**: As of the latest data, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was a net short of - 14,204 lots, a decrease of 6,666 lots compared with last week [21]. - **Implied Volatility**: As of September 19, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the Shanghai copper main contract at - the - money options fell to around the 50th percentile of historical volatility. As of this week, the put - call ratio of Shanghai copper options was 0.7497, a week - on - week increase of 0.0258 [26]. 3.3. Industrial Situation 3.3.1. Upstream Situation - **Copper Concentrate Price**: As of the latest data this week, the copper concentrate price in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 70,320 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 960 yuan/ton [29]. - **Copper Scrap Processing Fee**: As of the latest data this week, the southern copper scrap processing fee was 700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/ton [29]. - **Copper Ore Import**: As of July 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5601 million tons, an increase of 210,500 tons from June, a growth rate of 8.96%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 18.41% [35]. - **Refined - Scrap Copper Price Difference**: As of the latest data this week, the refined - scrap copper price difference (including tax) was 1,807.21 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 414.21 yuan/ton [35]. - **Global Copper Ore Production**: As of June 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrate was 1,916 thousand tons, a decrease of 81 thousand tons from May, a decline of 4.06%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrate was 79%, a decrease of 0.9% from May [40]. - **Port Inventory**: As of the latest data, the copper concentrate inventory in seven domestic ports was 574,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,000 tons [40]. 3.3.2. Supply Side - **Refined Copper Production**: As of August 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.301 million tons, an increase of 31,000 tons from July, a growth rate of 2.44%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 16.06%. As of June 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,431 thousand tons, an increase of 45 thousand tons from May, a growth rate of 1.89%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 83.5%, an increase of 3.7% from May [45]. - **Refined Copper Import**: As of July 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 335,969.236 tons, a decrease of 1,073.33 tons from June, a decline of 0.32%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 12.05%. As of the latest data this week, the import profit and loss was 160.89 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 151.67 yuan/ton [50][51]. - **Inventory**: As of the latest data this week, the LME total inventory decreased by 5,075 tons week - on - week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 4,719 tons week - on - week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 6,278 tons week - on - week. The total social inventory was 156,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13,000 tons [54]. 3.3.3. Downstream and Application - **Copper Products**: As of August 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.2219 million tons, an increase of 52,600 tons from July, a growth rate of 2.42%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 430,000 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from July, a decline of 10.42%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 2.38% [60]. - **Power Grid Investment**: As of July 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of power and grid investment completion were 3.37% and 12.49% respectively [66]. - **Household Appliance Production**: As of August 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of the monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs were - 1.6%, 12.3%, 2.5%, - 0.5%, and - 3.2% respectively [66]. - **Real Estate Investment**: As of August 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment completion was 6.030919 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9% and a month - on - month increase of 12.56% [72]. - **Integrated Circuit Production**: As of August 2025, the cumulative production of integrated circuits was 342,912,327,000 pieces, a year - on - year increase of 8.8% and a month - on - month increase of 16.42% [72]. 3.3.4. Overall Situation - **Global Supply - Demand**: According to ICSG, the supply of refined copper is in excess. As of June 2025, the global monthly supply - demand balance of refined copper showed a surplus of 36 thousand tons. According to WBMS, the cumulative global supply - demand balance as of June 2025 was 46,500 tons [77].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices experienced a slight recovery, increasing by approximately 0.30% during the Asian session on September 19, breaking a two-day decline [1] - The price of gold reached a historical high of $3707.35 per ounce on September 17, but faced selling pressure following optimistic labor market data, leading to profit-taking and a shift towards the dollar [1][3] - Analysts noted that profit-taking was driven by a reassessment of Federal Reserve policy changes, with expectations of rate cuts tempered by Chairman Powell's comments indicating a cautious approach to rate adjustments [3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators - Despite the initiation of a new easing cycle by the Federal Reserve, gold prices have struggled to find upward momentum, remaining above $3600 per ounce [3] - The market's risk-averse sentiment persists, with expectations of two more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year limiting the downside for gold [4] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is facing resistance around $3670, with support at approximately $3630, suggesting a range-bound trading environment [4] Group 3: Broader Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index has shown signs of recovery following the Federal Reserve's rate cut, which has further pressured gold prices [4] - Positive initial jobless claims data from the U.S. has also contributed to downward pressure on gold [4]

Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations[1] - The median rate forecast for the end of the year is 3.5%-3.75%, indicating an additional 50 basis points of potential cuts within the year[2] - Powell characterized the rate cut as a "risk management cut," reflecting a balanced policy stance between hawkish and dovish views[1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed raised its real GDP growth forecast for next year to 1.8% while slightly lowering the unemployment rate forecast and raising core inflation expectations[2] - There is significant divergence among committee members regarding future rate cuts, with 9 members advocating for 2 more cuts, while 6 believe no further cuts are necessary[2] - Despite a weakening job market, consumer and retail sales indicators remain robust, suggesting a favorable environment for risk assets[3] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The likelihood of two additional 25 basis point cuts in upcoming meetings is high, making the current environment favorable for equities[3] - Investors are advised to maintain equity asset allocations until there is a clear deterioration in economic indicators[3] Group 4: Risk Factors - Unexpectedly strong recovery in the job market and persistent inflation above expectations could delay the Fed's rate cut schedule[4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but Powell's hawkish remarks after the meeting supported the dollar, putting short - term pressure on the RMB and negatively impacting the equity market sentiment. The "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern may continue according to August economic data, and the bond market is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation pattern [8][15]. - In the commodity market, gold is under short - term pressure but has long - term upward potential, and crude oil's trend is volatile due to geopolitical conflicts. The commodity index is expected to show wide - range oscillations [9]. - In the foreign exchange market, the dollar has short - term rebound space but is under pressure in the medium term, while the euro is supported as the eurozone's inflation eases and the interest - rate cut cycle nears its end [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions Stock Market - A - share major indices generally rose this week, except for the Shanghai Composite Index. The four stock index futures showed different trends, with small and medium - cap stocks performing well, ranked as IM>IC>IF>IH. The release of poor August economic data on Monday pressured the stock market, and Powell's hawkish remarks after the Fed's interest - rate cut on Thursday - Friday negatively affected the equity market sentiment. The market trading activity increased slightly this week. The allocation suggestion is to buy on dips [8][15]. Bond Market - This week, Treasury bond futures showed mixed trends. TS and TL main contracts fell by 0.02% and 0.41% respectively, while TF and T main contracts rose by 0.08% and 0.13% respectively. Emotional factors significantly affect the bond market. The "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern may continue, and the expectation of restarting Treasury bond trading supports the bond market. The bond market is unlikely to weaken trend - wise, and yields are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation pattern. The allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [8]. Commodity Market - The Wind Commodity Index fell 0.19%, and the CSI Commodity Futures Price Index rose 0.12%. Gold is under short - term pressure but has long - term upward potential, and crude oil's trend is volatile due to geopolitical conflicts. The commodity index is expected to show wide - range oscillations. The allocation suggestion is to mainly watch [9]. Foreign Exchange Market - The euro against the dollar rose 0.26%, and the euro against the dollar 2509 contract rose 0.22%. The Fed's interest - rate cut and Powell's remarks gave the dollar short - term rebound space but put it under medium - term pressure. The eurozone's inflation eases, and the interest - rate cut cycle nears its end, supporting the euro. The allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [9]. Important News and Events - **Global Central Bank Policies**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, the ECB kept rates unchanged for the second time, the Bank of Canada cut rates by 25 basis points to 2.5%, and the BoJ kept rates unchanged [13][19]. - **Domestic Policies**: China will select about 50 pilot cities for new consumption formats, models, and scenarios, and introduce a series of policies to boost service consumption [15][17]. - **Corporate News**: Since the "14th Five - Year Plan", central SOEs' total assets have increased from less than 7 trillion yuan to over 9 trillion yuan, and their total profit has increased from 1.9 trillion yuan to 2.6 trillion yuan [17]. This Week's Domestic and Foreign Economic Data - **China**: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of large - scale industries was 5.2% (expected 5.7%, previous value 5.7%), fixed - asset investment was 0.5% (expected 1.4%, previous value 1.6%), infrastructure investment was 3.2%, manufacturing investment was 6.2%, real - estate development investment decreased by 12%, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 3.4% (expected 3.9%, previous value 3.7%) [14]. - **US**: In August, the retail sales monthly rate was 0.6% (expected 0.2%, previous value 0.6%), the industrial output monthly rate was 0.1% (expected - 0.1%, previous value - 0.4%), and the initial jobless claims for the week ending September 13 were 231,000 (expected 240,000, previous value 264,000) [20]. - **EU**: In July, the seasonally - adjusted trade balance was 53 billion euros (previous value 37 billion euros), the industrial output monthly rate was 0.3% (expected 0.4%, previous value - 0.6%), and the CPI annual rate in August was 2% (expected 2.1%, previous value 2.1%) [20]. - **UK**: The unemployment rate in August was 4.39% (previous value 4.4%) [20]. Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - From September 22 - 26, there are important economic data releases in China, the eurozone, the US, France, Germany, and the UK, such as China's one - year loan prime rate, the eurozone's consumer confidence index, and the US's core PCE price index [81].