Group 1 - The current Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycle is expected to be deeper and longer compared to previous cycles due to weak economic conditions, leading to a trend of opportunities in the market [1] - Global liquidity is anticipated to remain ample, benefiting risk assets, including A-shares and H-shares in the stock markets [1] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to benefit in the short term from a shift in global liquidity and a domestic profit turning point, with scarce technology assets and high-dividend state-owned enterprises becoming key investment themes [1] Group 2 - In the context of the interest rate cut cycle, A-shares are likely to exhibit a structural bull market focused on small-cap growth stocks, with technology stocks poised to benefit from the revaluation of RMB assets during a weak dollar cycle [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For global major assets, the improvement of US dollar liquidity is a medium - term trend, which is beneficial for the further rise of risk assets. Domestically, the process of household deposit transfer indicates an overall increase in risk appetite. It is recommended to focus on liquidity - sensitive risk assets in major assets, such as CSI 1000 stock index futures, non - ferrous metals, oilseeds, and precious metals. Also, the allocation value of Chinese bonds has increased, and the allocation opportunities in the fourth quarter can be monitored [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Attention is focused on the Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting at 0:00 on September 18th. The market's baseline assumption for the interest - rate decision is a 25 - basis - point rate cut, with a small probability of a 50 - basis - point cut. After the lower - than - expected non - farm payroll data, the release of US inflation data in August provides another reason for the Fed to cut rates: inflation has not significantly increased due to tariffs. The intensifying personnel turmoil among Fed governors has also boosted market expectations for a rate cut [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: Domestically, the progress of physical work in the fourth quarter and changes in financial market liquidity should be observed. The issuance of special bonds related to infrastructure is generally stable, which supports the physical demand of infrastructure projects in the fourth quarter. However, there is a risk that the subsequent use of special bonds may be more for debt resolution and less for physical work such as infrastructure. Considering the uncertain implementation rhythm of 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments, the demand impulse for the physical consumption of commodities may be postponed to the end of the fourth quarter. For investors interested in financial assets, it is recommended to monitor the process of household deposit transfer and inflation changes [7]. - **Asset Views**: It is recommended to pay more attention to liquidity - sensitive risk assets in major assets. Specifically, investors should focus on CSI 1000 stock index futures, non - ferrous metals, oilseeds, and precious metals. Additionally, the allocation value of Chinese bonds has increased, and the allocation opportunities in the fourth quarter can be considered [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Adopt a dumbbell structure to deal with market differences. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the key point being the decline of incremental funds [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: Continue the hedging and defensive strategy. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the key point being the deterioration of option market liquidity [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including unexpected tariffs, unexpected supply, and unexpected monetary easing [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The restart of the US interest - rate cut cycle in September and the expanding risk of the Fed's independence are driving prices up. The short - term judgment is volatile upward, with key points including US fundamental performance, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter has ended, and there is no upward driving force due to loading pressure. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the key point being the rate of freight decline in September [8]. 3.2.4 Steel and Iron Ore - **Steel**: Steel mills' profits are shrinking, and the supply and demand of rebar are both weak. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including the progress of special - bond issuance, steel exports, hot - metal production, overseas mine production and shipment, domestic hot - metal production, weather factors, and changes in port ore inventory [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Hot - metal production has returned to a high level, and port inventory has slightly increased. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including overseas mine production and shipment, domestic hot - metal production, weather factors, and changes in port ore inventory and policy dynamics [8]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - **Coke**: Supply has increased significantly, and the second round of price cuts has begun. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply has basically recovered, and the spot market sentiment is cautious. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply and demand are becoming more relaxed, and the market is under pressure. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including raw - material costs and steel - procurement situations [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the upward driving force is limited. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: Supply has slightly increased, and expectations are still fluctuating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the key point being spot sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Middle - stream concentrated pick - up has led to continuous inventory reduction. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the key point being soda - ash inventory [8]. 3.2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: There are new disturbances in copper - ore supply, and copper prices are oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is volatile upward, with key points including supply disturbances, unexpected domestic policies, the Fed being less dovish than expected, and unexpected slowdown in domestic demand recovery [8]. - **Alumina**: Spot prices are weakening, and inventory is accumulating. Alumina prices are under pressure and oscillating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including unexpected delays in ore resumption, unexpected electrolytic - aluminum resumption, and extreme market trends [8]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and aluminum prices are oscillating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including macro risks, supply disturbances, and unexpected demand [8]. - **Zinc**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and zinc prices are oscillating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including macro - turning risks and unexpected recovery in zinc - ore supply [8]. - **Lead**: The supply of recycled lead has decreased, and lead prices are oscillating upward. The short - term judgment is volatile upward, with key points including supply - side disturbances and slowdown in battery exports [8]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia has cracked down on illegal mining, and nickel prices are oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and unexpected supply shortages [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support is strong, and the stainless - steel market has risen significantly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth [8]. - **Tin**: The resumption of production in Wa State is slower than expected, and tin prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including changes in the expectation of Wa State's resumption of production and demand improvement [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is continuously increasing, suppressing the upward space of silicon prices. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including unexpected supply cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The fundamental driving force is weak, and prices are oscillating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including unexpected demand, supply disturbances, and new technological breakthroughs [8]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemical Industry - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical disturbances still exist. The short - term judgment is volatile downward, with key points including OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations [10]. - **LPG**: Valuation repair has been realized, and attention should be paid to cost - side guidance. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including the progress of cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: Option positions are concentrated at 3500, and there is intense competition between long and short positions. The short - term judgment is volatile downward, with key points including sanctions and supply disturbances [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Russian fuel - oil exports have reached a new high, and the fuel - oil market is weak. The short - term judgment is volatile downward, with key points including geopolitical situations and crude - oil prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates widely following crude - oil prices. The short - term judgment is volatile downward, with the key point being crude - oil prices [10]. - **Methanol**: The contradiction between near - term and far - term contracts is still large, and methanol is oscillating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including macro - energy factors and upstream and downstream device dynamics [10]. - **Urea**: Urea has returned to a fundamental - driven decline and is waiting for new positive factors. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including the actual implementation of exports and market - sentiment changes under long - term pressure [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Expectations are leading, and the market is pessimistic about future production - capacity pressure. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including coal and oil price fluctuations, port - inventory rhythms, and device implementation [10]. - **PX**: Fundamental driving forces are limited, and prices mainly follow costs under the temporary support of PXN. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including significant crude - oil fluctuations, macro - level changes, and unexpected weakness in the peak - demand season [10]. - **PTA**: The willingness to hold goods is low, and spot liquidity is abundant, suppressing the basis. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including significant crude - oil fluctuations, macro - level changes, and unexpected weakness in the peak season [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: Raw - material support is average, and processing fees have improved under factory price - holding. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and the quality of peak - season demand [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: The off - season of demand is deepening, with significant constraints. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including the implementation of bottle - chip enterprise production - cut targets and terminal demand [10]. - **Propylene**: The reduction in the volume of propane and PL commodities has boosted prices, and it is slightly stronger in the short term. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including oil prices and domestic macro - economic conditions [10]. - **PP**: There may be support near the previous low, and PP is oscillating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including oil prices and domestic and international macro - economic conditions [10]. - **Plastic**: Peak - season demand provides slight support, and plastic is oscillating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including oil prices and domestic and international macro - economic conditions [10]. - **Styrene**: Market sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including oil prices, macro - economic policies, and device dynamics [10]. - **PVC**: Weak reality and strong expectations coexist, and PVC is oscillating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: Spot prices have peaked and declined, and caustic soda is cautiously weak. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including market sentiment, production starts, and demand [10]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products - **Oils**: The good - condition rate of US soybeans has continued to decline, and oils continued to oscillate strongly yesterday. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including US soybean weather and Malaysian palm - oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: Spot prices are dragging down the futures market, and futures prices are testing the lower - limit support. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - economic factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: The number of incoming vehicles is at a high level, and both futures and spot prices are oscillating weakly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including unexpected demand, macro - economic factors, and weather [10]. - **Pigs**: Spot - market pressure continues, and the futures market is weak in the near term and strong in the long term. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Rubber**: It is running strongly and has returned above 16,000. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including production - area weather, raw - material prices, and macro - economic changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It continues to oscillate. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the key point being significant crude - oil fluctuations [10]. - **Cotton**: There is strong support at the bottom, and cotton prices have rebounded slightly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including demand and inventory [10]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices are oscillating slightly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the key point being imports [10]. - **Pulp**: Market sentiment is stable, and pulp has entered a range - bound market. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - based quotes [10]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: Market sentiment has rebounded, and double - glued paper is oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including production and sales, education policies, and paper - mill production starts [10]. - **Logs**: Processing demand has slightly recovered, and there is an expectation of spot - price increases. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including shipment volume and delivery volume [10].

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has updated its forecast for Ethereum, predicting a decline to $4,300 by the end of the year under a baseline scenario, down from the current $4,515. In a bullish scenario, Ethereum could rise to $6,400, while in a bearish scenario, it may drop to $2,200 [1] Group 1: Market Activity and Value Drivers - Network activity remains a key driver of Ethereum's value, with most recent growth occurring in layer-2 networks, though the "transmission effect" of this value to the Ethereum main chain is still unclear [1] - Citigroup assumes that only 30% of layer-2 activity contributes to Ethereum's value, suggesting that the current price is above its activity-based model valuation due to strong capital inflows and enthusiasm around tokenization and stablecoins [1] Group 2: ETF Inflows and Market Dynamics - Although Ethereum ETF inflows are smaller than Bitcoin's, the price impact per unit of capital is greater for Ethereum. However, due to Ethereum's smaller market capitalization and lower recognition among new investors, inflows into Ethereum ETFs are expected to remain limited [1] - Citigroup analysts believe that macro-level support is limited, and with the S&P 500 index nearing their target of 6,600 points, a significant rise in risk assets is not anticipated [1]

Core Viewpoint - The continuous rise in 30-year U.S. Treasury yields is impacting dollar credit and enhancing risks in global dollar liquidity, leading to increased trading in safe-haven assets and pressure on risk assets [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Emerging market equity assets are entering a phase of chip digestion, characterized by high selling and low buying [1] - There is a phase shift in funds towards low-growth events and left-side trading elasticity in consumer sectors [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Potential short-term elasticity may be observed in sectors such as solid-state batteries, media, gaming, and travel [1]

Group 1 - The Thai Government Pension Fund (GPF), managing assets worth 450 billion USD, is shifting its focus towards gold, commodities, and global equities to enhance returns after a lackluster performance in the first half of the year [1][2] - The fund's return rate for January to June was only 1.19%, but it aims to achieve an annualized return rate of over 3% by 2025 [1] - GPF has significantly increased its gold holdings, which now account for 0.43% of total assets, reflecting a more than doubling in quantity since the beginning of the year [1] Group 2 - The fund has reduced its investment in local and overseas equities from 22.6% to 19% of its total portfolio due to market volatility caused by U.S. tariffs [3] - Approximately 57% of the fund's assets remain in domestic and international fixed income, unchanged from the end of 2024 [3] - The fund's projected return rate for 2024 is 3.5%, more than double the previous year's return of 1.46% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1 - Lisa Cook's removal marks the first attempt by a sitting president to dismiss a Federal Reserve governor [1] - Cook was inclined to support the majority vote of the FOMC, and her departure increases the likelihood of a rate cut in September [1] - This potential rate cut is expected to put pressure on the US dollar while supporting stocks and other risk assets, including Bitcoin [1]

Group 1 - Oil prices have stabilized after a recent increase, with Brent crude nearing $68 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate above $63, reflecting a nearly 3% rise last week [1] - Traders are closely monitoring supply tensions and the overall sentiment in risk assets following Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's indication of a potential rate cut next month [1] - The U.S. has threatened to double tariffs on all imports from India to 50% in retaliation for India's purchase of Russian oil, while Indian diplomats state that local refineries will continue to buy crude from Moscow before the tariffs take effect [1] Group 2 - Following Powell's remarks, risk assets, including commodities, are expected to potentially rise on Monday, benefiting from economic stimulus and a weaker dollar [1]

Economic Context - At the 2025 Jackson Hole meeting, Fed Chair Powell hinted at a potential shift towards easing monetary policy, with a 25 basis point rate cut in September seen as almost certain by the market[4] - The U.S. economy is facing dual challenges: inflation pressures rising due to tariff increases and a weak labor market with synchronized supply and demand softening[4] Inflation and Employment - Core PCE inflation has risen to 2.9%, above last year's level, with significant increases in commodity prices[4] - Despite a low unemployment rate of 4.2%, non-farm employment growth has sharply slowed, indicating increasing risks to job stability[6] Policy Framework Changes - Powell announced the abandonment of the "compensatory" average inflation targeting introduced in 2020, reverting to a more traditional flexible inflation target[7] - This adjustment reflects a recognition that intentional mild inflation overshooting is not suitable in the current economic context, especially amid severe and persistent inflation shocks[7] Market Reactions - Market expectations for a September rate cut have surged, with over 85% probability indicated in federal funds futures[7] - If the Fed opts for more aggressive easing, such as a 50 basis point cut or a series of cuts, it could lead to significant impacts on risk assets, particularly in the tech sector and emerging markets[8] Dollar and Risk Assets - The dollar faces structural pressures, potentially weakening further if the Fed accelerates rate cuts, which could increase commodity prices and affect capital flows to emerging markets[8] - The stock market may experience a revaluation, with increased risk appetite and capital inflows into high beta assets like tech stocks[8]

格隆汇8月18日｜在特朗普与乌泽连斯基会谈前，新兴市场资产小幅走高，投资者正关注俄乌和平协议 是否会有进展的迹象。MSCI新兴市场股票指数一度上涨0.6%。投资者在本周晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔年 会上也保持谨慎，鲍威尔的讲话可能暗示9月降息的可能性。"风险资产的强劲表现已令人瞩目，估值越 来越显得紧绷。"德银分析师Jim Reid带领的团队在一份报告中写道。瑞银全球财富管理首席投资官 Mark Haefele团队在报告中表示，鉴于谈判立场差距巨大、战场缺乏决定性进展，"我们预计俄乌冲突将 持续到明年。任何谈判进程都会被拉长，因为缺乏信任和目标差距过大，任何协议都可能受到怀疑。" ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's economic growth in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, laying a solid foundation for achieving annual targets [1][2] - The GDP for the first half of the year reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, driven primarily by final consumption expenditure, which contributed 52% to economic growth [2] - The supply side saw industrial production and the demand side experienced a rebound in consumption, while exports showed resilience despite external uncertainties [2] Group 2 - Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the main factors driving major asset performance are expected to shift from external to internal [3] - Investment opportunities in the capital market include high-growth sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals, AI, military industry, new consumption driven by emotional value demand, and high dividend yield sectors [3] - The bond market may experience fluctuations in the short term due to policy observation, but opportunities may arise in the fourth quarter with potential interest rate cuts by the central bank [3]