现货黄金 盯盘神器·现货黄金：CPI公布前黄金走弱 现货黄金CPI公布前走弱，重回3350美元附近。结合实盘多空订单比来看，48.84%订单做多，51.17%做空为主，暗示资金情绪偏 空。而小时级别指标共振点，上方最强阻力已下行至3353附近。具体见"VIP专区-盯盘神器"。 ...

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Dollar Analysis - The market is consistently attempting to identify a bottom for the dollar, but a substantial dollar rebound is not anticipated [5] - Any upward movement in the dollar is expected to be short-lived [6] - Reserve managers globally are still overexposed to the dollar due to unhedged purchases of US stocks, which could lead to further dollar selling during any rebound [7][8] - The Fed is perceived to be under pressure to maintain an accommodative policy relative to inflation, which is viewed negatively for the dollar [2][3][4] Stock Market Outlook - Short-term, a positive fiscal environment and favorable macro data suggest a bullish outlook for stocks, although gains may be moderate and volatile [9] - Earnings season is expected to support the stock market in the short term due to lowered expectations [10] - By August, a weakening in stock prices is anticipated [10] Economic Factors - CPI data will influence the dollar's value in the coming weeks, particularly concerning pressure on the Federal Reserve from the administration [2] - The impact of tariffs is considered a significant driver, but the specifics of implementation remain uncertain in the short term [8]

Export Performance - In June, China's export growth rate increased by 5.8% year-on-year, up by 1 percentage point from May, primarily driven by exports to the U.S.[4] - Exports to the U.S. showed a significant improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 18.4 percentage points, despite still being in deep negative growth[4]. - High-tech products continued to support export growth, while low-end manufacturing exports showed notable recovery, particularly in furniture, toys, and plastic products[4]. Credit Expansion - Social financing (社融) grew by 8.9% year-on-year in June, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with government bond issuance being a major driver[14]. - The balance of RMB loans in June remained stable at a year-on-year growth of 7.1%, marking the first halt in decline since April 2024[14]. - Active credit expansion is expected to continue, supported by government bond issuance and policy financial tools, which may further boost social financing growth[15]. Price Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in June showed a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, continuing a downward trend, with significant drops in the black metal and coal industries[8]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June was 0.1% year-on-year, reflecting a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating weak demand recovery[11]. Economic Outlook - The report suggests limited downside potential for export growth in the second half of the year, driven by improved U.S.-China trade relations and global economic recovery[6]. - Despite concerns about potential economic slowdown, the probability of a significant downturn is considered low, with ongoing improvements in export performance and consumer sentiment[20].

Core Viewpoint - The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, marking the first rebound after several months of decline, while the core CPI rose by 0.7%, the highest since last year, indicating positive changes in the price market [1][3]. Group 1: CPI Trends - The June CPI increase is attributed to the "two new" policies that supported the rise in industrial consumer goods prices, particularly in categories like home appliances and office supplies [1]. - The rise in international oil prices has alleviated the downward pressure on energy prices, contributing to the CPI's rebound [1]. - In June, the prices of precious metals increased, which positively impacted the prices of related domestic products, such as platinum jewelry, supporting the CPI's recovery [1]. Group 2: Future Price Outlook - The overall judgment is that prices are expected to experience a mild recovery at low levels in the second half of the year, supported by several factors [3]. - Economic stability and continuous expansion of total demand provide a macro foundation for stable price operations [3]. - Policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are expected to effectively stimulate consumer demand, thereby promoting the stabilization and increase of consumer goods prices [3]. - Regulatory measures against disorderly low-price competition are anticipated to improve market order and environment [3].

Economic Overview - The preliminary GDP for the first half of 2025 is 66,053.6 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.3% at constant prices [2] - The industrial added value for large-scale industries increased by 6.4% year-on-year in the first half, with a 6.8% growth in June [5] Investment and Consumption - National fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 24,865.4 billion yuan in the first half, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [8] - The total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 24,545.8 billion yuan in the first half, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, with a 4.8% increase in June [11] Price Indices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year in the first half, with a slight increase of 0.1% in June [15] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.8% year-on-year in the first half, with a 3.6% decline in June [16] Financial Indicators - The total social financing scale increased by 22.83 trillion yuan in the first half, which is 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [19] - New RMB loans added up to 12.92 trillion yuan in the first half [20] - The broad money supply (M2) reached 330.29 trillion yuan at the end of June, showing a year-on-year growth of 8.3% [21] Trade Performance - The total import and export value of goods reached 21.79 trillion yuan in the first half, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [25]

Group 1 - The US Supreme Court has cleared the way for the Trump administration to dismantle the Department of Education [1] - The European Union is preparing to impose additional counter-tariffs on US goods worth €72 billion (approximately $84 billion) if trade negotiations fail [1][2] - The Bank of England's Governor Bailey indicated that a rapid deterioration in the job market could lead to larger interest rate cuts, with an 80% probability of a 25 basis point cut in the next meeting [2] Group 2 - India's June CPI has slowed to 2.1% year-on-year, marking the eighth consecutive month of decline and providing more room for the central bank to ease monetary policy [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 88.14 points to close at 44,459.65, a gain of 0.20%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also saw slight increases [3] - The COMEX gold futures fell by 0.35% to $3,352.10 per ounce, and silver futures dropped by 1.40% to $38.41 per ounce [3]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Analysis - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Guangdong decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, maintaining the same decline as in May, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%, which is a larger decline than the previous month by 0.1 percentage points [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.3% year-on-year, with a decrease in growth rate of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - For the first half of the year, the average CPI in Guangdong decreased by 0.4% compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2: Food and Non-Food Price Trends - In June, food prices in Guangdong fell by 1.0% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared to May, contributing approximately 0.20 percentage points to the CPI decrease [2] - Non-food prices also saw a year-on-year decline of 0.3%, consistent with May, impacting the CPI by about 0.21 percentage points [2] - Month-on-month, food prices decreased by 0.1%, contributing approximately 0.02 percentage points to the CPI decline, while non-food prices fell by 0.2%, impacting the CPI by about 0.16 percentage points [3] Group 3: Producer Price Index (PPI) Overview - In June, the Producer Price Index (PPI) in Guangdong decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, with the decline remaining consistent with May, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.3%, which is a larger decline than the previous month by 0.1 percentage points [4] - The average PPI for the first half of the year showed a decrease of 1.3% compared to the same period last year [4] - Among the 38 major industries surveyed, 11 experienced price increases, while 26 saw declines, indicating an industry increase rate of 28.9%, which is an expansion of 2.6 percentage points compared to May [4] Group 4: Industry-Specific Price Movements - Significant price fluctuations were noted in various industries, with the price of educational, cultural, and sports goods manufacturing rising by 10.6%, while black metal mining prices fell by 14.8% [4] - The prices in the petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing industries decreased by 13.1%, and the oil and gas extraction industry saw a decline of 10.1% [4] - The black metal smelting and rolling industry experienced a price drop of 9.5%, and the chemical fiber manufacturing industry saw a decrease of 7.0% [4]

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