问：为什么要开展价格指数基期轮换？ 答：基期轮换是价格指数编制的重要基础性工作，也是国际惯例和通行做法，旨在适应生产、流通、消 费领域商品和服务交易结构的新变化。基期是指价格指数对比基准时期，这一时期的指数为100。按照 统计制度安排，目前我国CPI和PPI每五年进行一次基期轮换，2026年开始编制和发布以2025年为基期的 价格指数。下面以CPI基期轮换为例详细说明。 CPI是综合反映一定时期内居民消费的商品和服务价格水平变动情况的相对数。由于居民消费的类别和 品种成千上万，为观察其总体价格变动情况，通常选取一定时期内居民经常消费、对居民生活影响较 大、有代表性的一组商品和服务作为"固定篮子"，用它们的价格变化来代表全社会所有商品和服务的价 格变化。随着经济社会发展，居民消费结构也在发生变化，需要及时调整CPI调查的"固定篮子"。例 如，随着我国居民越来越多地购买新能源小汽车，车用电力作为交通工具用能源需及时纳入CPI调查范 围。CPI基期轮换就是对"固定篮子"和价格对比基期进行调整，以适应居民消费结构的最新变化，进一 步提高价格指数的代表性，更加真实准确反映消费市场价格变动。 问：基期轮换对CPI和PPI ...

Core Viewpoints - January inflation shows divergence, influenced by the misalignment of the Spring Festival, external factors driving up prices, and weak demand [2][8] - The decline in PPI has narrowed significantly, primarily due to the increased impact of copper prices and some influence from the base period rotation [2][8] - January PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month and improved by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to -1.4% [2][8] PPI Analysis - The increase in copper prices has contributed significantly to PPI, with copper prices rising by 9.3% month-on-month, leading to a 0.5% increase in PPI [2][8] - The prices of non-ferrous metal mining and processing rose by 5.7% and 5.2% respectively, contributing positively to PPI [2][8] - In contrast, the prices of crude oil and coal have weakened, dragging PPI down by -0.08% and -0.15% respectively [12][71] CPI Analysis - The CPI fell significantly in January, primarily due to the Spring Festival misalignment, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.6 percentage points to 0.2% [3][17] - The month-on-month CPI increase was only 0.2%, which is notably lower than the previous year's performance before the Spring Festival [3][17] - Food CPI saw a substantial decline, dropping by 1.8 percentage points to -0.7%, influenced by high pig inventory levels keeping pork prices low [3][17] Core CPI and Service CPI - Excluding gold price impacts, the core CPI also showed weakness, falling by 0.4 percentage points to 1.6% [24][72] - The service CPI decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 0.1%, with weak rental demand contributing to a decline in housing CPI [4][28] - The core service CPI remained weak, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.3%, lower than the previous year's performance [4][28] Future Outlook - The performance of downstream prices is crucial compared to upstream price increases, with ongoing monitoring of the effects of anti-involution policies [39][73] - Despite potential continued increases in commodity prices, the transmission of upstream price increases to downstream remains limited, leading to a weak recovery in PPI [39][73] - For CPI, the low base in February, combined with high gold prices and improved service consumption, may lead to a significant rebound, potentially showing a "V-shaped" trend early in the year [39][73]

2026 年 02 月 11 日 输入性因素与中高端制造带动 PPI 环比高增 宏观研究团队 宏观经济点评 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 经 济 点 评 开 《灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策 工 具 — 央 行 Q4 货政报告点评》 -2026.2.11 《AI 产业链产品出口或将延续强势— 宏观经济专题》-2026.2.11 《一文看懂日本众议院选举与日债、 日元波动及影响—宏观经济点评》 -2026.2.6 hening@kysec.cn 何宁（分析师） 郭晓彬（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522110002 guoxiaobin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525070004 事件：1 月 CPI 同比 0.2%，预期 0.4%，前值 0.8%；PPI 同比-1.4%，预期-1.5%， 前值-1.9%。 贵金属与大宗消费品带动核心 CPI 环比超季节性 1 月 CPI 同比较前值下降 0.6 个百分点至 0.2%；环比持平于前值，为 0.2%。 1、蔬果价格带动食品 CPI 环比增速回落 1 月 CPI 食品项环比涨幅收窄，环比较前值下降 0.3 个百分点至 0%。鲜菜环比 降幅扩大，鲜果环比涨幅 ...

宏 观 研 究 通胀数据 2026 年 02 月 11 日 如何理解 1 月通胀分化？ —— 通胀数据点评（26.01） 事件：2 月 11 日，国家统计局公布 1 月通胀数据，CPI 同比 0.2%、前值 0.8%、预期 0.4%、 环比 0.2%；PPI 同比-1.4%、前值-1.9%、预期-1.5%、环比 0.4%。 相比之下，煤油等大宗商品价格、中下游 PPI 表现偏弱。国际原油价格下行影响国内石油 开采、精炼石油产品制造价格分别下降 3.1%和 2.5%，油价拖累 PPI 环比-0.08%，煤价 也有走弱，拖累 PPI 环比-0.15%。中下游产能利用率也未明显改善，导致上游涨价对中 下游的拉动相对有限，测算中下游仅拉动 PPI 环比 0.1%。 受春节错位的影响，1 月 CPI 同比明显回落；但剔除该因素后，CPI 整体仍偏弱。统计局 测算本轮基期轮换对每月 CPI 同比的影响是 0.06 个百分点。今年春节假期与 2025 年形成 错位，导致 1 月同比较前月回落 0.6 个百分点至 0.2%。而 1 月 CPI 环比仅 0.2%、明显低 于往年春节前月的 CPI 表现（0.6%），反映整体 C ...

CPI Analysis - In January 2026, the CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.2% year-on-year, significantly dropping due to the Spring Festival timing effect[2] - Food prices turned negative year-on-year at -0.7%, a decline of 1.8 percentage points, influenced by last year's high base effect[2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, recorded a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but reached a six-month high of 0.3% month-on-month[2] PPI Insights - The PPI in January 2026 decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%[2] - Key industries showed price increases, such as photovoltaic equipment manufacturing up 1.9% and computer manufacturing up 0.5% month-on-month[2] - Energy-related industries continued to see price declines, with oil and gas extraction prices down 16.7% and coal mining down 9.8%[2] Future Projections - February 2026 CPI is expected to rise by 1.3% year-on-year, potentially the highest since February 2023, driven by the Spring Festival demand shift[2] - The anticipated month-on-month CPI increase for February is around 0.9%, with new price factors contributing 1.1%[2] - The PPI is projected to turn positive in the second quarter of 2026, reflecting improved industrial price conditions and a gradual recovery of economic momentum[2] Risk Considerations - There is a risk that domestic policy effects may not meet expectations, which could impact inflation and economic recovery[2]

股指期货全景日报 2026/2/11 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF主力合约（2603） IH主力合约（2603） | 4714.8 3091.4 | -5.8↓ IF次主力合约（2602） +2.6↑ IH次主力合约（2602） | 4716.2 3091.6 | -7.8↓ +3.8↑ | | | IC主力合约（2603） | 8336.4 | +36.0↑ IC次主力合约（2602） | 8342.4 | +28.4↑ | | | IM主力合约（2603） | 8241.0 | +1.2↑ IM次主力合约（2602） | 8260.2 | -1.4↓ | | 期货盘面 | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 1624.6 | -10.8↓ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 3626.2 | +45.4↑ | | | IM-IC当月合约价差 | -82.2 | -27.8↓ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 5250.8 | +34.6↑ | | | IM-IF当月合约价差 | 3544 ...

华泰证券首席宏观经济学家易峘分析数据时表示，春节错位压制1月CPI同比增速、但2月有望明显回 升，核心CPI环比延续回升态势或显示通胀中枢稳步抬升，有色及通信价格等上涨带动1月PPI超预期上 行。 CPI同比上涨0.2% 从数据来看，1月CPI较12月的0.8%回落至0.2%，环比持平于0.2%。 本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者张智 北京报道 随着春节的临近，年货的采买如火如荼，物价也随之小幅波动。 2月11日，国家统计局发布数据显示，1月份，居民消费需求持续恢复，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比 上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.2%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.8%。 节前重要民生商品量足价稳。数据显示，2月5日，商务部会同财政部在少数民族地区组织投放2000吨中 央储备冻牛羊肉，增加节日肉类市场供应。同时，指导各地结合实际，灵活安排地方储备肉菜投放。安 徽、福建、山东等地落实猪肉、冬春蔬菜储备10万吨以上，山西、广西、新疆等地大型批发市场、超市 生活必需品库存量比平时增加10%—20%。河北组织420家商贸流通企业与外地的供应基地签订供货协 议，提前锁定货源。 "值得注意的是，猪肉为 ...

Inflation Forecasts - The CPI is expected to have a mild recovery, with an annual growth rate of 0.6% for 2026, with quarterly estimates of 0.7%, 0.4%, 0.6%, and 0.8% respectively[1] - The PPI is projected to turn positive after April, with an annual growth rate of approximately 0.5%, with quarterly estimates of -0.9%, 0.5%, 1.1%, and 1.2%[3] Price Movements - In January, the CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.2% year-on-year, down from 0.8% in the previous year[4] - The PPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month in January, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to -1.4% from -1.9%[6] Food Prices - The impact of the Spring Festival timing on food prices was significant, with vegetable prices decreasing by 4.8% month-on-month, while pork and egg prices rebounded by 1.2% and 2.7% respectively[4] - The overall food price index reflects a mixed trend, with some items experiencing price increases while others decline[11] Sector Analysis - Non-food items showed a slight increase of 0.2% month-on-month, driven by seasonal demand, while energy prices continued to be a drag on overall inflation[6] - The adjustment in the weight of food items in the CPI indicates a stronger influence of pork prices on the overall index due to the new base year[7] Future Outlook - The report suggests that global supply constraints and geopolitical uncertainties will continue to support resource prices, impacting both CPI and PPI in 2026[29]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2026 年 2 月 11 日 1 月通胀点评 春节错月影响一季度，基期轮换影响全年 1 月 CPI 同比增速低于万得一致预期，PPI 同比增速略高于万得一致预期； 春节错月因素或将在一季度持续影响 CPI 和 PPI 数据，但基期轮换或影响全 年，统计局测算本次基期轮换对 CPI 和 PPI 各月同比指数的影响平均约为 0.06 和 0.08 个百分点，总体较小。 相关研究报告 《2025 年四季度货币政策执行报告学习体会》 20260211 《策略点评》20260209 《策略周报》20260208 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师：张晓娇 xiaojiao.zhang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300514010002 证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 ◼ 1 月 CPI 环比增长 0.2%，同比增长 0.2%，核心 CPI 同比增长 0.8%，服务 价格同比增长 0.1 ...

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In January 2026, China's CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, down from 0.8% in December 2025, and below Bloomberg's consensus expectation of 0.4%[1] - The PPI in January 2026 decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, an improvement from the previous month's decline of 1.9%, slightly above the expected decline of 1.5%[1] - Month-on-month, the CPI remained flat at 0.2%, while the PPI increased from 0.2% in December to 0.4% in January[1] Group 2: Seasonal Effects and Core Inflation - The late timing of the Spring Festival in 2026 is expected to suppress January's CPI readings but boost February's figures significantly[2] - Core CPI showed a month-on-month recovery from 0.2% in December to 0.3% in January, marking a six-month high, indicating a gradual recovery in domestic demand[2] - The food CPI turned negative at -0.7% year-on-year in January, down from 1.1% in December, impacting the overall CPI negatively[7] Group 3: PPI Trends and Industry Insights - The PPI's year-on-year decline has narrowed for six consecutive months, with notable improvements in upstream prices for non-ferrous and black metals[8] - The PPI for production materials decreased by 1.3% year-on-year, while the living materials PPI saw a wider decline of 1.7%[8] - The ongoing "anti-involution" market reforms are contributing to price stabilization in certain sectors, with significant increases in prices for educational and entertainment products[8]