Inflation Data - December CPI increased to 0.8% year-on-year, the highest in 34 months, up 0.1 percentage points from November[2] - Core CPI remained stable at 1.2% year-on-year, with a slight decrease in the non-gold core CPI to 0.83%[2] Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - December PPI decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 0.3 percentage points from November, indicating a substantial improvement[3] - PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month in December, above the seasonal average of -0.2%[3] - The PPI's tail effect is expected to drop sharply to -1.5 percentage points in January 2026, likely leading to a significant decline in year-on-year PPI data[3] Economic Outlook - The current price recovery is not firmly supported by effective demand, necessitating continued monetary easing and potential policy rate cuts to stimulate investment and consumption[4] - A genuine improvement in prices should stem from enhanced household income expectations and growth in terminal demand, rather than solely relying on low base effects from the previous year[3] Industry Analysis - Downstream industries may face dual pressures from rising raw material costs and stagnant factory prices, risking profit margin erosion, particularly in sectors lacking brand strength[3] - The recovery in PPI for downstream sectors is lagging compared to upstream sectors, indicating a potential risk of downward revisions in profit expectations for Q4[3]

Core Viewpoint - The surge in copper and gold prices, influenced by input factors, has led to a continued rise in inflation for December [2][8] - December's PPI increased primarily due to the rise in copper prices, while other commodity prices and mid-to-lower stream PPI showed weak performance [2][8] - The CPI for December rose year-on-year, supported by high gold prices, although core CPI excluding gold remained low [2][8] Inflation Data Summary - On January 9, the National Bureau of Statistics released December 2025 inflation data: CPI year-on-year at 0.8%, previous value 0.7%, expected 0.8%, month-on-month at 0.2%; PPI year-on-year at -1.9%, previous value -2.2%, expected -2%, month-on-month at 0.2 [1][7][71] PPI Analysis - December PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, driven by a 7.9% rise in copper prices, which was the strongest contributing factor [2][8] - Coal prices contributed positively to PPI, while international oil prices declined, negatively impacting domestic oil prices [2][8] - The utilization rate in mid-to-lower stream sectors did not improve significantly, leading to a failure in price transmission from upstream to downstream [2][8] CPI Analysis - December CPI rose year-on-year by 0.1 percentage points to 0.8%, with core CPI rising to 2% mainly due to high gold prices [2][8] - Excluding gold, the remaining core CPI continued to decline, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points to -0.7% [2][8] - The CPI for food items increased by 0.9 percentage points to 1.1%, with fresh vegetables and fruits seeing significant price increases due to supply constraints [3][23][72] Service CPI Insights - The service CPI fell by 0.1 percentage points to 0.6%, with weak rental demand dragging down housing rent CPI [3][29][72] - Core service CPI also decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 1%, while dining out CPI saw a slight decline [3][29][72] Future Outlook - The ability of anti-involution policies to sustain price increases in mid-to-lower stream sectors is crucial for future inflation trends [4][40] - Over the past three years, commodity prices have only explained about 30% of PPI fluctuations, with more influence from price "over-declines" in mid-to-lower stream sectors [4][40] - High gold prices and improvements in service consumption may support core CPI, but the high base effect from the Spring Festival may limit January's CPI increase [4][40]

CPI Analysis - December CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, the highest growth since March 2023[2] - Food prices contributed significantly to CPI, with fresh vegetables and fruits rising by 18.2% and 4.4% respectively[2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, remained stable at 1.2% year-on-year[2] PPI Analysis - December PPI decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[2] - PPI recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, marking three consecutive months of growth[2] - Key industries such as coal mining and cement manufacturing saw price increases of 1.3%, 0.8%, and 0.5% respectively[2] Market Outlook - January CPI is expected to drop to around 0.4% year-on-year due to a high base effect from the previous year[2] - January PPI is projected to rise to approximately 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year estimate of -1.2%[2] - The impact of low oil prices continues to weigh on PPI improvements, while rising prices in non-ferrous metals support certain sectors[2] Risks - Domestic policy effectiveness may fall short of expectations, posing risks to economic recovery[2]

1月9日，国家统计局发布了2025年居民消费价格主要数据。其中，2025年CPI（全国居民消费价格指数）累计同比涨幅为0%，即相比2024年，2025年物价总 体水平不涨不跌；2025年12月CPI同比上涨0.8%，涨幅为2023年3月份以来最高。 回看2025年，食品价格同比负增长成为拖累CPI增长的重要因素。如表一，在食品烟酒类，国家统计局每月会公布10个细分项的涨幅。在2025年，水产品、 鲜果、卷烟的价格同比正增长，粮食、酒类、畜肉类等其余七项的价格均为同比负增长。 | | 表一 居民消费价格主要数 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 食品烟酒类 | 2025年涨幅 | 202 | | 根食 | -1.0 | | | 食用油 | -1.6 | | | 的手表 | -3.9 | | | 畜肉类 | -3.7 | | | 水产品 | 1.4 | | | 蛋炎 | | -7.4 | | --- | --- | --- | | 奶类 | | -1.5 | | 鲜果 | | 1.2 | | 卷烟 | | 0.1 | | 酒类 | 新相击: 同学次斗目 | -1.9 | 记者 田进 整体来看，20 ...

宏 观 及 期 指 点 评 2025 年 1 月 9 日 股指期货 IC2603 和 IM2603 合约均创下上市以来新高 IF2603 偏强震荡 IH2603 震荡整理 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构成 具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行作 出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【行情前瞻要点】 1 月 9 日，股指期货主力合约 IF2603、IH2603、IC2603 和 IM2603 小幅高开；开盘后，继续震荡上行。 IC2603 创下 2015 年 7 月 20 日上市以来新高 8020.6 点，IM2603 再创 2022 年 7 月 22 日上市以来新高 8016.0 点。IC2603 和 IM2603 震荡偏强上行，涨幅明显大于 IF2603 和 IH2603。2025 年 12 月，CPI 同比上涨 0.8%， 预期上涨 0.75%，环比上涨 0.2%；PP ...

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In December 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year, with the year-on-year growth rate reaching its highest level since March 2023 [1][4] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by food prices, which increased by 1.1%, contributing approximately 0.17 percentage points to the year-on-year CPI increase [5][4] - The overall CPI for 2025 remained flat compared to the previous year, indicating insufficient effective consumer demand and a mismatch between supply and demand [2][6] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month in December 2025, marking the third consecutive month of increase, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to 1.9% [8][7] - Key industries such as coal mining and lithium-ion battery manufacturing saw price increases, reflecting improvements in supply-demand structures and ongoing capacity governance [8][9] - The overall PPI for 2025 decreased by 2.6%, indicating a historically low price level combination, which aligns with the current macroeconomic context of supply exceeding demand [9][10] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The "stabilize growth and promote consumption" policies are expected to gradually release their effects, with a low base effect anticipated to contribute to a moderate increase in CPI in 2026 [2][6] - The ongoing governance of key industries and the establishment of a unified national market are expected to continue into 2026, potentially improving price competition and market expectations [10][11] - Factors such as the low base effect from 2025's PPI decline and complex domestic and international economic conditions may drive an increase in upstream raw material prices in 2026 [11]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China increased by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, marking the highest growth since March 2023, with a rise of 0.1 percentage points compared to November [1] - The increase in CPI is attributed to effective policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption, along with heightened consumer demand due to the approaching New Year [1] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial products decreased by 1.9% year-on-year in December 2025, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The PPI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, marking three consecutive months of growth [2]

期货日报网讯(记者肖佳煊)1月9日，国家统计局公布数据显示，2025年12月，全国居民消费价格指数 (CPI)同比上涨0.8%，涨幅扩大，创下2023年3月以来新高；环比由降转升，上涨0.2%。 东方金诚研究发展部执行总监冯琳也认为，2025年物价走势的一个重要支撑点在于，在以旧换新政策发 力下，全年汽车、家电、手机等商品价格同比数据上行势头较为明显，成为推动2025年核心CPI同比涨 幅略有扩大的主要原因。 中信证券首席经济学家明明表示，预计2026年内CPI将温和回升，全年中枢可能在0.5%左右，PPI有望 在三季度实现当月同比增速的由负转正。推动物价回升的关键因素，具体包括内需改善、服务价格修 复、居民和企业预期的稳定。 国盛证券（002670）首席经济学家熊园也认为，2026年CPI、PPI大概率同步回升，PPI同比在下半年转 正的可能性较大。CPI方面，猪价有望温和回升，原油价格大概率维持低位震荡，服务消费、耐用品消 费仍将支撑核心CPI改善。PPI方面，"反内卷"政策预计提振煤炭、螺纹钢和碳酸锂价格，海外铜矿减产 和全球电网、AI数据中心、再工业化等需求可能推升铜价，推动PPI同比降幅收窄，最快转 ...

2026年1月9日，国家统计局发布数据显示，2025年12月份，扩内需促消费政策措施继续显效，叠加元旦临近，居民消费需求增 加，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.8%。受国际大宗商品价格传导拉动以及国内重点行业产能治理相关政 策持续显效等因素影响，工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比下降1.9%。 其中，CPI同比上涨0.8%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点，回升至2023年3月份以来最高，同比涨幅扩大主要是食品价格涨幅扩大 拉动。PPI环比上涨0.2%，连续3个月上涨，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。 整体来看，2025年全年，全国居民消费价格与上年持平。2025年全年，工业生产者出厂价格下降2.6%。 远东资信研究院副院长张林对21世纪经济报道记者表示，12月CPI同比与环比价格改善，在市场预期范围之内，但处于市场预期 的上沿。对于全年数据，从历史上来看，0%的CPI和-2.6%的PPI是偏低的价格水平组合，这符合当前宏观经济供强于需，以及居 民部门仍处在去杠杆过程中的总体背景和基本面。 12月份，全国居民消费价格环比上涨0.2%。其中，城市上涨0.2%，农村上涨0.2 ...

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In December 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year, with the year-on-year growth rate reaching its highest level since March 2023 [1][3] - The increase in CPI was primarily driven by a rise in food prices, which increased by 1.1%, contributing approximately 0.17 percentage points to the year-on-year CPI increase [4][6] - The overall CPI for 2025 remained flat compared to the previous year, indicating a relative lack of effective consumer demand and a mismatch between supply and demand [2][7] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month in December 2025, marking the third consecutive month of increase, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to 1.9% [8][9] - Key industries such as coal mining and lithium-ion battery manufacturing saw price increases, reflecting improvements in supply-demand structures and ongoing capacity governance [9][10] - The overall PPI for 2025 decreased by 2.6%, indicating a historically low price level combination, which aligns with the current macroeconomic context of supply exceeding demand [11][12] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The gradual release of "stabilizing growth and promoting consumption" policies is expected to lead to a moderate increase in CPI in 2026, surpassing the flat growth of 2025 [2][7] - The anticipated low base effect from the 2025 PPI decline may contribute to a rise in PPI in 2026, alongside increased demand for resources in a complex economic environment [12] - Continued efforts to address "involution" in competition and the establishment of a unified national market are expected to positively influence price dynamics in the coming year [11][12]