国债期货日报 | 2025-06-13 政策呵护延续，国债期货涨跌分化 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：5月7日国新办发布会上，央行宣布落实适度宽松政策，推出涵盖数量型、价格型和结构 型在内的一揽子十项措施，包括降准0.5个百分点、政策利率与结构性工具利率分别下调0.1和0.25个百分点、公积 金贷款利率同步下调，同时增设及扩容科技、养老、消费、涉农等领域专项再贷款，强化资本市场支持和创新债 券风险缓释机制，旨在提升信贷投放、稳定市场预期，推动经济高质量发展；5月10日，中美双方在日内瓦举行经 贸高层会谈，为时两天；5月12日，中美联合发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，声明指出中美双方 "24%的关 税在初始的90天内暂停实施，对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税。" ；5月20日，中国人民银行公布LPR下调：1年期 LPR由3.1%降至3.0%，5年期以上品种由3.6%降至3.5%，为近半年首次下调。同日，多家国有大行与部分股份制银 行同步下调存款挂牌利率，涵盖活期、整存整取及通知存款等多类型产品。此次降息与降存款利率同步实施，延 续了央行5月初提出的 "政策利率—LPR—存款利率" 联动调控路径。 2）通胀 ...

国债期货日报 | 2025-06-10 政策呵护延续，国债期货全线收涨 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：5月7日国新办发布会上，央行宣布落实适度宽松政策，推出涵盖数量型、价格型和结构 型在内的一揽子十项措施，包括降准0.5个百分点、政策利率与结构性工具利率分别下调0.1和0.25个百分点、公积 金贷款利率同步下调，同时增设及扩容科技、养老、消费、涉农等领域专项再贷款，强化资本市场支持和创新债 券风险缓释机制，旨在提升信贷投放、稳定市场预期，推动经济高质量发展；5月10日，中美双方在日内瓦举行经 贸高层会谈，为时两天；5月12日，中美联合发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，声明指出中美双方 "24%的关 税在初始的90天内暂停实施，对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税。" ；5月20日，中国人民银行公布LPR下调：1年期 LPR由3.1%降至3.0%，5年期以上品种由3.6%降至3.5%，为近半年首次下调。同日，多家国有大行与部分股份制银 行同步下调存款挂牌利率，涵盖活期、整存整取及通知存款等多类型产品。此次降息与降存款利率同步实施，延 续了央行5月初提出的 "政策利率—LPR—存款利率" 联动调控路径。 2）通胀 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall trend of Treasury bond futures shows a weak and volatile pattern, with most yields rising, reflecting the adjustment sentiment after the market's positive factors are exhausted. The short - term interest bonds declined briefly due to the central bank's continuous net injection and loose liquidity before the end of the month. However, concerns about the weakening of allocation demand increased, and long - term yields stopped falling and rebounded. The market's optimistic sentiment was boosted by the US International Trade Court's "halt" of multiple tariff measures by the Trump administration, which increased global risk appetite and suppressed the demand for hedging, causing the yields of interest - rate bonds to rise from mid - week to the weekend, and Treasury bond futures to decline under pressure. Subsequently, the US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals approved the temporary resumption of the halted tariff policies, leading to a collective rise in Treasury bonds and Treasury bond futures. Overall, short - term wait - and - see sentiment is strong, and subsequent attention should be paid to the marginal changes in economic data and policy signals [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.10% month - on - month change and a - 0.10% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) had a - 0.40% month - on - month change and a - 2.70% year - on - year change [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale was 424.00 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 1.04 trillion yuan (+0.25%); M2 year - on - year was 8.00%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.00% (+14.29%); the manufacturing PMI was 49.50%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% (+1.02%) [9]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 98.74, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 (-0.08%); the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.1806, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.013 (-0.18%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.53, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 (-0.58%); DR007 was 1.55, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 (-0.26%); R007 was 1.76, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.21 (-10.82%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.66, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 (-1.48%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 (-1.48%) [9]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Fluctuations**: On 2025 - 06 - 05, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.43 yuan, 106.03 yuan, 108.72 yuan, and 119.31 yuan respectively. The fluctuations of TS, TF, T, and TL were 0.04%, 0.02%, - 0.01%, and - 0.16% respectively [2]. - **Net Basis Spread**: The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were - 0.107 yuan, - 0.031 yuan, - 0.033 yuan, and 0.134 yuan respectively [2]. III. Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals - **Central Bank Operations**: On 2025 - 06 - 05, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 126.5 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.5% [2]. - **Money Market Repurchase Rates**: The main - term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.408%, 1.534%, 1.591%, and 1.620% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. IV. Spread Overview - The report provides various spread data in figures, including the inter - period spread trends of Treasury bond futures varieties, the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures, etc., but specific numerical summaries are not given in the text [35]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents figures such as the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate, and the basis spread trends of the TS main contract in the past three years, but specific numerical summaries are not given in the text [43]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides figures about the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the capital interest rate, and the basis spread trends of the TF main contract in the past three years, but specific numerical summaries are not given in the text [52]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report offers figures on the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the capital interest rate, and the basis spread trends of the T main contract in the past three years, but specific numerical summaries are not given in the text [63]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows figures including the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the capital interest rate, and the basis spread trends of the TL main contract in the past three years, but specific numerical summaries are not given in the text [72]. 4. Strategies - **Single - Side Strategy**: With the decline of repurchase rates and the volatile prices of Treasury bond futures, the 2509 contract is neutral [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the widening of the basis spread [4]. - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Group 1: Interest Rates and Central Bank Operations - DRO01 closed at 1.45 with a -6.33bp change, DR007 at 1.62 with a -3.59bp change, GC001 at 1.77 with a 15.00bp change, and GC007 at 1.76 with a 4.00bp change [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.64 with a 0.10bp change, LPR 5 - year at 3.60 with a 0.00bp change [4] - 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds closed at 1.46, 1.54, and 1.72 respectively, with changes of 0.76bp, 1.12bp, and 0.51bp; 10 - year US treasury bonds closed at 4.51 with a -3.00bp change [4] - The central bank conducted 4480 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40%, and a net investment of 910 billion yuan after 3570 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [4] - There will be 9460 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the central bank's open market this week, with 1570 billion, 1545 billion, and 1425 billion yuan maturing from Wednesday to Friday [5] - On May 20, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0% (down from 3.1%), and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% (down from 3.6%); state - owned and some joint - stock banks cut deposit rates [5] Group 2: Stock Indexes and Market Conditions - The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed at 3839, 2685, 5652, and 6008 respectively, with changes of -0.54%, -0.52%, -0.31%, and -0.34% [6] - IF, IH, IC, and IM of the current - month contracts closed at 3809, 2669, 5578, and an unspecified value respectively, with changes of -0.6%, -0.6%, -0.3%, and -0.2% [6] - IF, IH, IC, and IM trading volumes were 75774, 39115, 74989, and 195063 respectively, with changes of -12.6%, -15.2%, -10.3%, and 5.2%; their positions were 240995, 81979, 209867, and 329034 respectively, with changes of 2.3%, 2.0%, 0.4%, and 3.2% [6] - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 9989 billion yuan, a decrease of 110 billion yuan; the pesticide and veterinary medicine sector rose significantly, while consumer sectors led the gains, and precious metals, semiconductors and other sectors led the losses [6] - The market volume shrank again, and the stock indexes oscillated weakly; the US postponed the implementation of a 50% tariff on EU imports to July 9 [7] - Stock indexes may continue to oscillate weakly; the probability of incremental policies and strong capital intervention in the short - term is low, and the market may enter a policy vacuum period [7] - Macro - level core indicators showed a decline in April, indicating that the effectiveness of previous growth - stabilizing policies was not obvious; it is advisable to observe stock indexes cautiously and pay attention to macro - incremental signals [7] Group 3: Futures Premium and Discount - The premium and discount rates of IF for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 11.96%, 12.43%, 0.02%, and 6.10% respectively [8] - The premium and discount rates of IH for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 9.45%, 12.20%, 6.30%, and 3.70% respectively [8] - The premium and discount rates of IC for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 19.95%, 18.47%, 14.81%, and 12.26% respectively [8] - The premium and discount rates of IM for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 23.66%, 21.62%, 18.05%, and 15.38% respectively [8]

研究报告 股指周报 市场震荡格局生变，弱势特征初现 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | | 金融板块研究员：邓夏羽 | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F0246320 | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0003212 | | | | | 电话：13519655433 | | | | | 邮箱：383566967@qq.com | | | | | 报告日期：2025 5 20 | 年 | 月 | 日星期一 | 【行情复盘】： 上周 IF2506 报收于 3846.2 点，相较前一周 上涨 37.4 点，涨幅 0.01%。IH2506 报收于 2693.0 点，相较前一周下跌 2.2 点，跌幅 0.08%。IC2506 报收于 5561.8 点，相较前一周下跌 40.0 点，跌 幅 0.71%。IM2506 报收于 5872.0 点，相较前一周 下跌 61.8 点，跌幅 1.04%。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 *特 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the price trends, supply - demand relationships, and investment strategies of various precious metals and non - ferrous metals. It takes into account factors such as interest rates, inflation, exchange rates, and geopolitical situations. Overall, different metals have different outlooks, with some being cautiously bullish and others being neutral or cautiously bearish [36][38][39]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1内外价差结构及比价 - **内盘价差结构**: Presented the SHFE price difference structures of gold, silver, aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, stainless steel, and nickel from May 19 to May 23, 2025 [4][7] - **外盘价差结构**: Showed the price difference structures of LME copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, nickel, and the premiums of Comex gold, silver, and copper over London and LME counterparts, covering May 19 - May 23, 2025 [9][12] - **比价**: Included various ratios such as domestic and international copper, lead, aluminum, zinc, nickel, gold, and silver ratios, as well as copper, aluminum, zinc, and nickel ratios excluding exchange rates from 2021 - 2025 [19][23][26] 3.2各品种观点 - **贵金属**: In the week of May 23, factors like rising U.S. Treasury yields, inflation expectations, and geopolitical tensions influenced the market. Gold and silver are cautiously bullish, with recommended buying ranges of 770 - 775 yuan/gram for gold and 7,950 - 8,000 yuan/kilogram for silver [36] - **铜**: With tight mine supply and low TC prices, copper is expected to maintain an upward - biased trend. It is recommended to buy on dips in the range of 77,000 - 77,500 yuan/ton [38] - **铅**: Currently in the consumption off - season with weak demand, it is recommended to sell on rallies in the range of 16,920 - 16,950 yuan/ton [39] - **铝**: The supply is stable with a slight increase, while consumption is showing a downward trend. The sustainability of consumption is in question, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [41] - **氧化铝**: Supply is expected to increase, and the price of bauxite has support. The market is expected to remain in a state of supply surplus [42] - **锌**: The supply of zinc ore is stable, and the processing fees are expected to rise. Consumption is relatively strong, but there are risks of marginal decline. The market is neutral [44][45][46] - **镍**: The supply is expected to increase slightly, and consumption is weak. The market is expected to oscillate in the range of 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the medium - to - long term [48] - **不锈钢**: Supply is abundant, and consumption is weak. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the medium - to - long term [50] - **硅**: The supply may decrease slightly, and demand is weak. If the southwest silicon furnaces operate normally, inventory is expected to accumulate in the third quarter [52][53] - **多晶硅**: Consumption is showing signs of weakness, and supply is expected to jointly reduce production but is difficult to achieve in the short term. The market is expected to oscillate widely [55][56] - **锂**: Supply may decrease, and consumption is stable. The inventory has increased slightly. The price has fallen to the 60,000 - yuan mark, and it is recommended to sell on rallies if there is a rebound [58] 3.3相关数据跟踪 - **贵金属 data**: Tracked U.S. and European bond yields, inflation expectations, TIPS yields, gold and silver ETF holdings, and CFTC positions from 2021 - 2025 [61][62][65] - **铜 data**: Tracked TC prices, refined - scrap spreads, import profits and losses, CFTC positions, domestic and LME inventories, and downstream sector indices from 2021 - 2025 [74][75][78] - **铝 data**: Tracked seasonal social inventories, LME inventories, cost - profit, and import profits and losses from 2021 - 2025 [80][84][88] - **氧化铝 data**: Tracked prices, total inventories, import profits and losses, and production costs and profits from 2022 - 2025 [95][96][99] - **锌 data**: Tracked price differences, inventories, processing fees, production profits, and import profits and losses from 2020 - 2025 [103][109][113] - **镍 and stainless steel data**: Tracked prices, inventories, premiums, import profits and losses, and profit margins from 2017 - 2025 [124][125][132] - **工业硅 data**: Tracked prices, production costs, and social inventories from 2022 - 2024 [147][148][152] - **多晶硅 data**: Tracked prices, inventories, and supply - demand balances from 2023 - 2025 [155][156] - **碳酸锂 data**: Tracked prices, inventories, and production from 2021 - 2025 [158][159][161]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report presents an overview of the mid - view events, industry trends, and market pricing in April and May 2025, covering production, service, upstream, mid - stream, downstream industries, and credit spreads [1][2][3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Mid - view Events - **Production Industry**: In April, the total social electricity consumption was 772.1 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%. From January to April, the cumulative total social electricity consumption was 3156.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. The power consumption of the primary, secondary, tertiary industries and urban and rural residents' living all increased year - on - year [1]. - **Service Industry**: On May 20, 2025, the 1 - year LPR was 3.00% and the 5 - year LPR was 3.50%, both down 10 basis points from the previous period [1]. 3.2 Industry Overview - **Upstream**: Egg prices decreased year - on - year, and glass prices dropped in the short term [2]. - **Mid - stream**: The PTA operating rate rebounded, while the PX operating rate declined recently. The asphalt operating rate in infrastructure has been rising [3]. - **Downstream**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities decreased seasonally, reaching a near - three - year low. The number of domestic flights decreased cyclically [4]. 3.3 Market Pricing - Bank credit spreads rebounded, while credit spreads in other industries declined [5]. - The table shows the credit spreads of various industries from last year to this week, with most industries showing a downward trend in credit spreads this week compared to last week [47]. 3.4 Key Industry Price Indicators - The table presents the price indicators of multiple industries, including agriculture, non - ferrous metals, energy, chemicals, and real estate. Most prices have small year - on - year changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [48].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector experienced a strong surge on May 20, with multiple related ETFs opening significantly higher, including the Hong Kong Innovative Drug 50 ETF (513780), which rose over 5% [1] - Some Hong Kong medical-themed ETFs faced profit-taking, with the Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF (513120) seeing a net outflow of over 500 million yuan despite its over 5% increase, and the Hang Seng Medical ETF (513060) experiencing a net outflow of over 400 million yuan [1] - The second enhanced strategy ETF tracking the CSI 500 index, the Guotai CSI 500 Enhanced Strategy ETF, was announced to be established on May 21, with a first fundraising scale of 570 million yuan and a total of 2,440 effective subscription households [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China announced that the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for May 20 is 3.0% for the one-year term and 3.5% for terms over five years, both down by 10 basis points from the previous period [2] - Major banks, including China Construction Bank and China Merchants Bank, have lowered the RMB deposit rates, with the one-year fixed deposit rate now at 0.95% [2]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the 1-year LPR to 3% and the 5-year LPR to 3.5%, both down by 10 basis points, marking the first decline this year, signaling a clear intention to stabilize the market and expectations [1] - The adjustment of LPR is expected to lower loan interest rates, which will directly impact borrowing costs for consumers and businesses [1] - Prior to this adjustment, the mortgage rates for first-time homebuyers in Beijing were 3.15%, while second-home buyers faced rates of 3.55% within the Fifth Ring Road and 3.35% outside it [1] Group 2 - A rough estimate indicates that a 10 basis point decrease in the 5-year LPR could reduce monthly interest payments by over 50 yuan for a 1 million yuan loan over 30 years, saving borrowers over 20,000 yuan in total interest [2] - The decline in deposit rates is beneficial for maintaining the stability of commercial banks' net interest margins, enhancing the sustainability of financial support for the real economy [2] - The simultaneous decline of LPR and deposit rates is expected to further lower financing costs for enterprises and residents, stimulating demand for financing, promoting consumption, and expanding investment, thereby contributing to economic recovery [2]

周二中国央行发布的公告显示，1年期LPR报3.0%，5年期以上报3.5%，均降低10个基点，此次LPR下调 符合市场预期。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，当前外部环境仍面临很大不确定性，国内稳增长政 策还不能松劲。预计下半年央行还会继续实施降息，年内两个期限品种的LPR还有下行空间。（证券日 报） ...