市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 16 日 星期五 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 周四 A 股三大指数集体收跌，截止收盘，沪指收跌 0.68%，深成指收 跌 1.62%，创业板指收跌 1.92%。沪深两市成交额 11522.45 亿元；申 万行业方面，美容护理、煤炭、公用事业领涨，计算机、通信、电子 领跌；概念板块方面，NMN 概念、合成生物、宠物经济概念涨幅居前， 华为盘古、DRG/DIP、华为昇腾概念跌幅居前；港股方面，恒生指数 收跌 0.79%，恒生科技指数收跌 1.56%；海外方面，美国三大指数涨 跌不一，道指收涨 0.65%，标普 500 收涨 0.41%，纳指收跌 0.18%。 【重要新闻】 【国务院召开做强国内大循环工作推进会】国务院总理李强在会上强 调，要深刻认识和准确把握当前经济形势，把发展的战略立足点放在 做强国内大循环上，以国内大循环的内在稳定性和长期成长性对冲国 际循环的不确定性，推动我国经济行稳致远，努力实现高质量发展。 【我国城市更新顶层设计出台】中办、国办近日 ...

Core Insights - The implementation of the new housing policy in Qingdao has led to increased activity in both new and second-hand housing markets, with significant growth in transaction volumes and buyer interest [1][2][4] Group 1: Market Activity - New housing online consultation and transaction volumes reached peak levels during the first weekend after the policy was implemented, with a 25% increase in second-hand housing transactions [1] - In April, Qingdao's second-hand housing market recorded 6,881 transactions, with the last week of the month achieving the highest weekly transaction volume since 2025 [2] - The first week of May saw a total of 2,368 transactions in both new and second-hand housing, marking a 14.1% year-on-year increase, with second-hand housing showing notable growth [3] Group 2: Policy Impact - The new policy includes a comprehensive set of measures aimed at stimulating the housing market, particularly benefiting young people, families with multiple children, and those seeking improved living conditions [4][5] - Specific incentives include subsidies for families purchasing new homes, with 50,000 yuan for two-child families and 100,000 yuan for three-child families, significantly reducing housing costs [4] - The introduction of low monthly payment loans for young buyers under 35, allowing them to pay only interest for the first ten years, has led to a noticeable increase in inquiries for such products [4] Group 3: Future Developments - The Qingdao government plans to enhance policy implementation and oversight to ensure that housing subsidies and financial support reach citizens effectively [5] - There is a commitment to accelerate the construction of 15 pilot projects for quality housing, with an aim to add 12,000 units of affordable housing within the year [5]

Core Insights - The national building materials and home furnishings market experienced a slight decline in sales in April, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.52% despite maintaining seasonal consumption trends [1][2] - The Building Materials Home Furnishing Index (BHI) for April was reported at 113.70, indicating a high level of market activity, although it showed a month-on-month decline [1][2] Sales Performance - The sales revenue of large-scale building materials and home furnishing markets in April reached 108.65 billion, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 15.14% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.52% [1] - Cumulative sales from January to April amounted to 446.29 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.19% [1] Market Sentiment - The "Manager Confidence Index" for April was 170.63, indicating a positive market outlook with an increase of 8.94 points month-on-month, remaining in a high confidence zone [2] - The "Popularity Index" fell to 159.38, down 24.02 points month-on-month, highlighting challenges faced by the industry, including intensified competition and external market pressures [2] Policy Impact - The introduction of policies such as the "old-for-new" program and the allocation of 81 billion in special bonds by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance are expected to bolster market confidence and stimulate demand [2] - The industry is encouraged to innovate and transform towards a sustainable development model focusing on "green, industrial, and digital" integration to leverage policy benefits effectively [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][20]. Core Views - The company's overall performance in Q1 2025 exceeded expectations, driven by a focus on user experience and content ecosystem development, along with government subsidy policies and steady growth in supermarket categories [6][10]. - The adjusted net profit significantly surpassed Bloomberg consensus estimates, primarily due to better-than-expected gross margin and operating profit margin [6][10]. - The company is focusing on long-term investment returns from new businesses like food delivery, with a current daily order volume approaching 20 million [9][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2025 revenue reached 301.1 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 16% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 13% [6][10]. - Gross profit was 47.8 billion yuan, up 20% year-over-year and down 10% quarter-over-quarter [6][10]. - Operating profit stood at 10.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 37% year-over-year increase and a 24% quarter-over-quarter increase [6][10]. - Net profit was 11.3 billion yuan, a 53% year-over-year increase and a 4% quarter-over-quarter increase [6][10]. - Non-GAAP net profit reached 12.8 billion yuan, up 43% year-over-year and 13% quarter-over-quarter [6][10]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards to 1,286.6 billion yuan, 1,371.3 billion yuan, and 1,449.6 billion yuan respectively [9][17]. - The forecast for net profit has been adjusted downwards to 34 billion yuan, 45.4 billion yuan, and 52.6 billion yuan for the same period [9][17]. - The target market capitalization for the company is set at 592.2 billion yuan, with a target price of 186 yuan per share [9][17].

Group 1 - The core event is the second super internal purchase event held by Aima in Guigang City, which attracted significant consumer interest and resulted in the sale of 880 electric vehicles, generating a transaction amount of 2.2 million yuan [1] - The event offered consumers up to 2,000 yuan in subsidies through a combination of government, brand, and manufacturer incentives, making electric vehicles more affordable [1] - Guigang City is a major production area for electric vehicles in China, with a well-established industrial chain that includes over 100 enterprises and an annual production capacity of 5 million two-wheeled electric vehicles [1] Group 2 - The local business bureau has actively promoted the old-for-new subsidy policy, leading to a surge in internal purchase events by major electric vehicle companies, which has stimulated consumer demand [2] - The internal purchase model allows consumers to experience a direct and transparent purchasing process by visiting the factory, which enhances consumer confidence and engagement [2] - As of May 10 this year, Guigang City has recorded 15,700 old-for-new transactions, resulting in 7.65 million yuan in subsidies and driving a total transaction amount of 49.9 million yuan [2] Group 3 - The production of new energy electric vehicles in the Port North District has seen significant growth, with over 1.2 million units produced and a production value exceeding 2 billion yuan from January to April, reflecting year-on-year increases of 48.51% and 56.37% respectively [3]

Core Insights - JD's Q1 2025 revenue reached 301.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, marking the highest quarterly growth rate in three years, with service revenue at 58.8 billion yuan, up 14.0% year-on-year [2][10] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 12.8 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 43.4% [2][10] - The retail revenue of JD grew by 16.3% year-on-year to 263.8 billion yuan, driven by strong user growth and supply chain optimization [2][10] Revenue and Profitability - The group achieved a gross margin of 15.9%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, and a fulfillment gross margin of 9.3%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [3][10] - JD's retail operating profit margin improved by 0.8 percentage points to 4.9% [3][10] - The company continues to enhance its operational efficiency through its supply chain infrastructure and smart integration of business ecosystems [3][10] Business Development - JD's food delivery service surpassed 10 million daily orders as of April 22, 2025, indicating significant progress in this segment [3][10] - The company has repurchased 1.5 billion USD worth of shares, amounting to approximately 2.8% of its outstanding shares as of December 31, 2024 [3][10] - The expansion of the platform into new markets, including Hong Kong and international regions, is ongoing, with a focus on maintaining high growth rates in various product categories [10] Policy and Market Environment - The April Politburo meeting emphasized stabilizing employment and the economy, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption [4][11] - The government is expected to introduce flexible policies to address uncertainties in tariffs and enhance financial support for various sectors [11] - The focus on long-term structural reforms and support for consumer spending is anticipated to drive economic growth in the coming quarters [11]

5月14日，深圳市坪山区推出"坪山焕新季"专项活动，活动将针对6000元以上的热门手机推出优惠补 贴。消费者领取活动补贴后，选购6000元以上的手机时，可按商品销售价格立减10%，每单补贴金额不 超过1000元。 2025年，随着手机品类被纳入国家补贴范围，消费者换新机的需求不断增长。据了解，2025年第一季 度，某电商平台国补范围内商品成交额同比增长超过60%。其中，手机成交额同比增长120%，成为消 费者最受欢迎的国补品类之一。 购买6000元以上的手机也能享受优惠补贴了。为落实国家提振消费部署，加快释放以旧换新消费潜力， 经公开遴选，抖音电商成功入选坪山区"手机换新"专项促消费活动电商平台。 为进一步满足不同消费者的需求，深圳市坪山区，针对6000元以上的手机产品推出了"坪山焕新季"专项 活动。此次"坪山焕新季"补贴活动将覆盖6000元以上的高端手机，华为、苹果、小米、荣耀、OPPO、 VIVO等主流品牌旗舰机型均参与活动，全国用户均可领取使用，有望进一步刺激手机消费，满足消费 者的多元化需求。 活动于5月14日18点正式上线，消费者只需在抖音搜索"坪山消费季"，即可进入活动专区，领取活动补 贴，每位用 ...

Group 1: Economic Performance - In April, the sales revenue of enterprises in China increased by 4.3% year-on-year, continuing the steady growth trend since the fourth quarter of last year, driven by a series of existing and incremental policies [1] - The eastern region, particularly economic powerhouses like Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Beijing, saw sales revenue growth of 4.8%, with Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Beijing growing by 7.3%, 6.6%, and 5.4% respectively, significantly above the national average [1] Group 2: Industry Growth - In April, industrial enterprises' sales revenue grew by 3.7% year-on-year, with manufacturing sales revenue increasing by 4.4%, primarily driven by the "two new" policies [2] - Specific sectors such as electrical machinery, computer manufacturing, and instrumentation saw sales revenue growth of 12.8%, 15.7%, and 15.9% respectively [2] - High-tech industries and core digital economy sectors reported sales revenue growth of 15.3% and 13.4% year-on-year [3] Group 3: Consumer Policies and Trends - The "old-for-new" consumption promotion policies have positively impacted consumer demand and released residents' consumption potential, with a focus on boosting consumer confidence [3] - As of April 27, the "old-for-new" program led to significant sales, including 281.4 million vehicles and 49.416 million home appliances, contributing over 720 billion yuan to sales [2] Group 4: Foreign Trade and Domestic Sales - In response to uncertainties in international trade, the government has implemented policies to help foreign trade enterprises expand into domestic sales, with domestic sales for companies engaged in exports to the U.S. increasing by 4.7% year-on-year [4] - Among 31 manufacturing categories, 21 saw an increase in the proportion of domestic sales compared to the previous year, with notable increases in sectors like leather products and footwear [4] Group 5: Trade Statistics - In the first four months of the year, China's total goods trade value reached 14.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, with exports growing by 7.5% and imports declining by 4.2% [5] - In April, the total goods trade value was 3.84 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6%, with exports increasing by 9.3% and imports by 0.8% [5]

不过，吃下红利后，还需要正视红利退场后可能造成的影响，特别是当高基数增长的可持续性更多地取决于外部因素、而不是行业竞争和内部 变化本身时。 竞争局面一度轰轰烈烈的外卖业务，备受分析师的关注——前两个提问都与之有关。2025年第一季度，京东在外卖领域全面发力，通过拓城招 商、骑手五险一金缴纳、升级在App的入口位置等举措，持续加码。许冉透露，京东外卖已接近实现日均2000万单。她认为，"即时零 售"和"外卖业务"在战略上都是从京东核心的零售业务角度出发，深植于整体业务生态而不是割裂的，可以和现有业务产生巨大的协同价值。 2025年第一季度，京东高调入局外卖领域，为平淡了许久的互联网行业增添了几分热闹，也让外界十分关注这项新业务的表现，特别是加大投 入可能带来的影响。5月13日，京东发布了2025年第一季度业绩，无论是收入还是利润，数字都称得上不错。同时，财报中以一定篇幅介绍了 外卖业务的表现，称"在极短时间内已经取得显著进展"，京东CEO许冉也表示："我们在新业务探索中取得令人鼓舞的早期成果。" 这一季度，京东收获了几个双位数增长百分比——总收入为3011亿元，同比增长15.8%，为近三年以来最快增幅；非美国通 ...

Core Insights - JD Group reported Q1 2025 revenue of 301.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, outperforming major U.S. retailers, indicating strong growth in China's consumer market [2] - The overall retail sales of consumer goods in China grew by 4.6% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with significant contributions from categories like home appliances and digital products, driven by trade-in policies and seasonal consumption [2][4] - Service retail also saw growth, with a 5% year-on-year increase, reflecting a broad recovery across various sectors [2] Group 1: Market Performance - JD's growth strategy included trade-in services and a diverse range of new products, successfully capturing market opportunities and enhancing domestic consumption vitality [2][4] - In contrast, major U.S. retailers, including Amazon, experienced revenue growth slowdowns, with Amazon's Q1 revenue at $155.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%, marking the lowest growth rate in two years [3] Group 2: Consumer Trends - Consumer enthusiasm was high during the spring and New Year festival, with over 90% purchasing local New Year goods, particularly in food and home appliances [4] - JD's trade-in services covered over 200 categories, meeting diverse consumer needs from urban to rural areas, with significant growth in sales of air conditioners and kitchen appliances [4] Group 3: Innovation and Strategy - JD launched a "New Product Growth Plan" aiming to support brands with 10 billion yuan in funding and traffic, targeting significant sales milestones for new products [5] - The company is focusing on enhancing the consumer experience through supply chain innovation and technology upgrades, aiming to build a collaborative retail ecosystem [6]