行业报告 | 行业研究周报 食品饮料 证券研究报告 食品饮料周报：重点关注软饮料&低度酒精布局机会 大众品：看好四大主题逻辑。5 月 26 日-5 月 30 日大众品中保健品仍延续良好态势（前期持 续推荐），而零食/乳制品则表现相对平稳，大众品方面目前我们重点推荐四条主线：①降本控 费逻辑；②新消费逻辑；③具备强α&Q2 存潜在业绩弹性标的；④主题性预期标的（乳制品/ 食品连锁等）。 板块投资建议 【首推】软饮料&低酒精"新品+低基数+即将迎来旺季+成本红利"下的投资机会：李子园/ 承德露露/东鹏饮料/百润股份/香飘飘等。 【港股食饮】建议关注：青啤 H、华润啤酒、百威、蒙牛乳业、卫龙美味、悠然牧业、康师傅、 统一等。 【白酒板块】推荐强α&持续享受集中度提升红利的白酒龙头酒企：山西汾酒/贵州茅台等。 【大众品】建议关注：①降本控费逻辑：西麦食品/五芳斋/李子园/立高食品等；②新消费逻辑 （市场空间大/有渠道或品类红利）：H&H/仙乐健康/康比特/百龙创园/卫龙美味/盐津铺子/甘 源食品等。③具备强 α/Q2 存潜在业绩弹性标的（结合基数）：三只松鼠/农夫山泉/青岛啤酒/ 燕京啤酒等；④ 主题性预期标的（乳制 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a strong opening in June, with all three major indices rising and over 3,300 stocks in the market showing gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.43%, the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.16%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.48% [1] - The total market turnover reached 1.16 trillion yuan [1] Key Sectors - The sectors that performed well included the China-South Korea Free Trade Zone, new consumption, football concepts, precious metals, and pharmaceuticals [1] - The rare earth permanent magnet sector saw significant gains, with Guangsheng Nonferrous Metals hitting the daily limit and reaching a new high [12] Notable Stocks - Junyao Health, known as the "first stock of room temperature lactic acid bacteria," achieved a remarkable performance with six consecutive trading days of gains, including a daily limit increase [2][5] - The stock's trading volume exceeded 800 million yuan [2] - Innovative drug stocks remained active, with Shutaishen hitting the daily limit and a cumulative increase of 188.04% since May 20 [7][9] Company Performance - Junyao Health reported a production volume of approximately 85.99 million liters for probiotic products in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.54%, while sales volume decreased by 1.41% to about 83.99 million liters [5] - The sales revenue for probiotic products was approximately 595 million yuan, down 2.71% year-on-year [5] Innovative Drug Sector - The innovative drug sector is gaining attention, with the approval of 11 new innovative drugs by the National Medical Products Administration [10] - The sector is expected to benefit from ongoing policy support and international licensing agreements, enhancing growth prospects for related companies [10] - Shutaishen's subsidiary is under scrutiny for its drug application, which may impact future evaluations [9] Conclusion - The overall market sentiment is positive, with a focus on growth sectors such as technology and consumer-driven industries, alongside stable sectors like banking [15]

Market Overview - The market experienced a rebound with all three major indices closing in the green, driven by significant gains in new consumption concept stocks, IP economy, beauty, and sports sectors [1] - The total trading volume reached 1.1414 trillion, an increase of 22 billion compared to the previous trading day, with over 3,400 stocks rising [1] Sector Performance - The new consumption sector saw a strong increase, particularly with the IP economy concept stocks gaining traction. The Labubu brand's overseas performance exceeded expectations, and the opening of the first popop store in Shanghai on May 30 further boosted interest [2] - The sports concept stocks performed well, with the Jiangsu Province city football league gaining popularity and driving cultural tourism consumption [2] - The innovative drug sector maintained its strength, influenced by a correction in the Hong Kong market and significant announcements from multinational pharmaceutical companies, including a licensing agreement worth up to 11.1 billion USD for a new cancer drug [2] Banking Sector - Bank stocks showed renewed strength, supported by the trend of dividend stocks and adjustments to major indices by the Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index, which may lead to capital inflows [3] - Insurance capital continues to show interest in bank stocks, maintaining market momentum [3]

2025 年 06 月 02 日 耐用消费产业行业研究 买入（维持评级） 行业周报 证券研究报告 国金证券研究所 分析师：赵中平（执业 S1130524050003） zhaozhongping＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：杨欣（执业 S1130522080010） yangxin1＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：王刚（执业 S1130524080001） wang_g＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：张杨桓（执业 S1130522090001） zhangyanghuan＠gjzq.com.cn 消费中观策略&投资建议 ①基本面有向好变化的低位传统核心资产，资本市场逻辑是高低切，新消费已经将表观 30-60XPE 的高标估值体 系确立，传统核心资产的估值水位也有望在流动性宽松叠加公募基准欠配背景下向上修复，尤其是在地产高频数 据企稳经济有自发筑底倾向&传统消费 25Q2 开始财报基数下降景气度增速有自发回升趋势背景下，建议关注安踏 体育，雅迪控股，裕同科技等；②坚定持有兑现度较高的新消费龙头，建议关注泡泡玛特，康耐特光学等。预计 消费类资金有望向两个方向切换；③积极拥抱新消费赛道或具备新消费思维的传统 ...

Group 1 - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that concerns over tariffs have resurfaced, potentially suppressing market sentiment in the short term, but the market is gradually becoming desensitized to tariff issues [1] - In April, industrial enterprise profits improved, driven by the effective implementation of "new" consumption incentive policies, which boosted downstream consumption and supported the midstream equipment manufacturing sector [1][2] - The manufacturing PMI showed overall recovery in May, with a rebound in export orders, highlighting the resilience of China's economic fundamentals, which will provide bottom support for the market [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. has issued renewed tariff threats, with recent announcements indicating an increase in steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50%, suggesting the Trump administration is preparing a "Plan B" for tariffs [1] - Despite the tariff challenges, new momentum industries are experiencing accelerated profit growth, significantly contributing to the economy [2] - June is a critical month for A-share dividends, with a focus on tracking capital flows and changes in industry prosperity to identify high-dividend investment opportunities [2] Group 3 - The emphasis on internal circulation is crucial, with a focus on service consumption and new consumption as important new drivers of economic growth [3] - External uncertainties are accelerating the internal circulation, with policies aimed at expanding and enhancing consumption quality [3]

新消费（饮料&低度酒）20250601 摘要 饮料行业 2024 年整体收入个位数增长，利润双位数增长，茶饮料和功 能性饮料领跑，碳酸饮料增速放缓。原材料成本优势显现，行业毛利率 提升 1-2 个百分点，利润率提升 1 个百分点，竞争格局环比改善。 承德露露底盘稳健，餐饮渠道需求稳定，南方市场仍有拓展空间。公司 计划两年内投入一亿广告费用推广养生水，并新增 PET 生产线，主业预 计实现 7 亿元利润，养生水目标销售额 2 至 3 亿元，长期看市值有望达 150 亿元。 东鹏饮料能量饮料业务保持 20%以上增长，目标 2026 年超越华彬红牛。 补水产品快速放量，2024 年营收达 15 亿，果汁茶产品 5 月份月销量破 亿。预计 2025 年收入增速约为 35%，利润增速约为 43%。 李子园单二季度处于低基数状态，新品维生素水贡献增量，预计 2025 年成本下降约 10%。2025 年糖酒会推出功能性饮料新品，市场关注度 较高，核心市场集中在华东、华中和西南区域。 百润股份 4 月和 5 月接近双位数下滑，取消经销商授信打款政策，主动 消化库存。RTD 系列将推出新产品，威士忌业务已进入名创优品、 711 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the resilience of domestic demand in China, which is expected to provide a bottom support for the market despite short-term tariff concerns [1] - The manufacturing PMI showed signs of recovery in May, with improved export orders and strong performance in new consumption and consumer goods [1] - The focus for investment should be on sectors that benefit from domestic demand, including beauty care, agriculture, defense, non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and retail [1] Group 2 - The market is currently experiencing a limited adjustment space due to a lack of significant external volatility and ongoing domestic policy support [2] - Key investment themes include high-margin assets, technology sector opportunities, and consumer sectors boosted by policy incentives [2] - The article suggests that the technology sector remains a long-term investment focus, with short-term attention on undervalued segments [2] Group 3 - A-share market is currently insulated from macroeconomic disturbances, with policies in place to manage risks and support market stability [3] - The technology sector is expected to be a key driver for a structural bull market in the medium term, despite short-term adjustments [3] - There is a continued focus on sectors like pharmaceuticals and precious metals, as well as opportunities in the automotive supply chain [3] Group 4 - Three potential triggers could help A-shares escape the current narrow trading range: developments in US-China relations, increased fiscal spending, and advancements in the technology sector [4] - The article highlights the importance of maintaining strong financing levels in local and national debt to support market activity [4] - The technology sector, particularly AI-related stocks, is seen as having the potential for a rebound after recent adjustments [4] Group 5 - The market is expected to experience a period of index fluctuation, with a focus on quality indices due to stable economic fundamentals [5] - The article notes that the current funding environment is less favorable for high-concentration small-cap stocks, suggesting a preference for larger, quality stocks [5] - Overall, the market is likely to remain in a state of fluctuation, with a bias towards larger, more stable investments [5] Group 6 - The technology growth style is now considered to be at a favorable entry point after recent adjustments, with a focus on sectors like military and innovative pharmaceuticals [6] - The article indicates that the market's trading characteristics are heavily influenced by external uncertainties, particularly regarding tariffs [6] - Emphasis is placed on the importance of trading indicators in navigating the current market environment [6] Group 7 - The article suggests that external risks have lessened but warns of potential volatility from US policy changes [7] - Domestic policies are expected to continue supporting the market, with consumption remaining a key driver of economic recovery [7] - Investment themes include domestic consumption, domestic substitution, and low allocation funds, with a defensive market style anticipated [7] Group 8 - The market is currently in a repair phase, with trading sentiment affected by fluctuating US tariff policies and slow trade negotiations [8] - The article highlights the growing influence of long-term capital and regulatory support in stabilizing the A-share market [8] - Recommended sectors for investment include precious metals, public utilities, new consumption, and AI applications [8] Group 9 - Recent high-frequency economic data indicates a weakening trend, which may limit stock market gains [9] - The article notes that certain commodity prices have fallen below last year's levels, and there is a decline in retail financing activity [9] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook remains positive, driven by policy support and changes in the AI and new consumption sectors [9] Group 10 - The article discusses the potential for a new "East rises, West falls" trading strategy, driven by a weakening dollar and favorable conditions for non-US assets [10] - It emphasizes that the technology growth sector, particularly AI and related innovations, will be a key focus for upcoming trading opportunities [10] - The article suggests that the upcoming months will see significant developments in technology sectors, which could catalyze market movements [10]

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market experienced slight declines during the past week, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.03%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.91%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.4% as the Dragon Boat Festival holiday comes to an end [1] Group 2: Trade Relations and Tariffs - The U.S. Trade Representative's office has extended the exemption period for certain tariffs under Section 301 against China, originally set to expire on May 31, 2025, now extended to August 31, 2025 [3] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to U.S. claims of violations regarding the Geneva trade talks, emphasizing that China has adhered to the agreements made and criticized the U.S. for introducing discriminatory measures against China [5][6] Group 3: Manufacturing and Economic Indicators - China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May stands at 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment [7] Group 4: Automotive Industry - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers issued a statement opposing the recent price wars among car manufacturers, highlighting that such competition negatively impacts industry profitability and sustainability [9][11] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced plans to strengthen regulations against "involution" in the automotive sector to maintain fair competition [10] Group 5: Analyst Insights - Analysts from various firms provided insights on the market outlook, with a focus on the resilience of domestic demand and the potential for upward movement in the market due to easing tariff tensions and improving economic indicators [16][17][18][19][20][21][22][24][25][26]

Market Overview - The brand 100 index experienced a slight rebound in May, closing at 1063.57 points with a monthly increase of 1.09% after a long upper shadow in the K-line [1][4] - The index initially rose due to unexpected financial policies and a pause in tariff announcements between China and the US, but later faced adjustments due to weak fundamental data and profit-taking [2][4] Key Performers - Notable weekly gainers included Nongfu Spring and Lao Feng Xiang, both exceeding 4% in weekly growth, while China Mobile saw a market value increase of 568 billion yuan [2][3] - In May, Dongfang Overseas International, China Life Insurance, and China Pacific Insurance had monthly gains exceeding 15%, with Dongfang Overseas leading at 34.05% [4] New Consumption Sector - The new consumption sector remains attractive, with companies like Nongfu Spring benefiting from strong brand recognition and a robust distribution network [5] - Nongfu Spring's tea beverage revenue is projected to surpass bottled water for the first time in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of over 90% for its Oriental Leaf brand [5] Strategic Developments - Lao Feng Xiang is enhancing its product offerings and channel strategies, focusing on younger demographics and collaborations with popular IPs [6] - Anta Sports is expanding its global presence through the acquisition of the leading outdoor brand, Jack Wolfskin [6] ETF Investment Opportunities - ETFs such as E Fund (513070) and the Hong Kong Consumption ETF (159735) are highlighted as effective tools for investing in the new consumption sector, with significant year-to-date gains [7][10] - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Theme Index includes major companies like Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi, which collectively account for over 50% of the index weight [10][14] Long-term Outlook - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Index is expected to provide long-term investment value, reflecting the evolving consumption habits of younger generations and the global expansion of leading new consumption enterprises [14]

Core Viewpoint - Bawang Chaji (CHA.US) has demonstrated robust growth in its first quarterly report since going public, with significant increases in store count, GMV, and net income, reflecting a strong performance amid global uncertainties [1][3][10]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company reported a total of 6,681 stores globally, with a GMV of 8.23 billion yuan in the first quarter, marking a year-on-year increase of 38% [1][4]. - Total net revenue reached 3.39 billion yuan, up 35.4% year-on-year, while net profit was 677 million yuan, reflecting a 13.8% increase [1][4][6]. - The average monthly GMV per store decreased slightly from 456,000 yuan to 432,000 yuan, attributed to seasonal factors and the ramp-up period for new stores [4][6]. Group 2: User Growth and Marketing - The company has seen a significant increase in registered members, surpassing 190 million, with 15 million new members added in the quarter [7][10]. - Active users reached 44.9 million, maintaining a leading position in the industry [7][10]. - Increased marketing expenses contributed to user growth, with management expenses rising to 353 million yuan and sales expenses to 299 million yuan, driven by new product promotions and advertising [6][10]. Group 3: Expansion Strategy - Bawang Chaji aims to expand its international presence, with 169 overseas stores as of March 31, 2025, primarily in Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand, showcasing strong growth potential [12][14]. - The overseas GMV reached 178 million yuan, a remarkable year-on-year growth of 85.3%, indicating the potential of international markets [12][14]. - The company is focusing on single-market breakthroughs and expanding into high-value markets, leveraging local partnerships to enhance operational efficiency and brand recognition [14][15]. Group 4: Product Innovation - The company emphasizes product innovation centered around tea, with a strategy that includes both traditional tea drinks and new product lines like pure tea and freshly brewed tea [18][20]. - Bawang Chaji has introduced limited-time offerings and collaborations with cultural IPs to enhance brand appeal and attract diverse consumer segments [21][22]. - The company is investing significantly in product development, with administrative expenses rising to 352.8 million yuan, primarily for R&D and talent acquisition [21][22].