Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has publicly criticized the government for pressuring the Fed to lower interest rates through threats of criminal investigation, marking a significant shift in his typically cautious communication style [1][3]. Group 1: Powell's Response and Actions - Powell's video statement indicates he will not allow the situation to unfold quietly, emphasizing the importance of the Fed's independence in setting interest rates based on public interest rather than presidential preferences [1][2]. - The unprecedented nature of a criminal investigation against a sitting Fed chairman reflects a serious challenge to the Fed's operational independence [1][3]. - Powell has engaged top legal counsel as a precautionary measure, indicating his commitment to maintaining the Fed's integrity amid external pressures [3][5]. Group 2: Government and Political Reactions - The White House has shifted responsibility for the investigation to the Justice Department, with the Attorney General prioritizing investigations into the misuse of taxpayer funds [2][5]. - President Trump has publicly distanced himself from the investigation, claiming ignorance of the subpoena and asserting that it is unrelated to the Fed's interest rate decisions [2][4]. - Some of Trump's allies believe the pressure may force Powell to resign before the end of his term, potentially allowing Trump to fill another vacancy on the Fed's board [2][3]. Group 3: Implications for the Federal Reserve - The investigation centers on Powell's testimony regarding a $2.5 billion renovation project, which some officials allege involved misrepresentation of costs, suggesting a deeper motive related to the Fed's independence [5][6]. - Analysts express concern that without Powell as a buffer, Trump may redirect his frustrations towards other members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [5][6]. - The potential for Powell's dismissal raises questions about the independence of future Fed chairs, as any successor may face similar pressures and scrutiny [6].

以下文章来源于美股投资网 ，作者StockWe.com 美股投资网 . 美国洛杉矶投资公司，TradesMax.com为美股投资者提供美股行情和投资策略的专业网站。一支有着多年华尔街投资银行工作经验 的美籍分析师团队，提供公司研究报告、美股交易技巧、美股软件、美股开户指南、微信客服niugu88，微博美股投资网 来源 | 美股投资网 美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，美国司法部已向美联储发出大陪审团传票，威胁要提起刑事诉讼，这是特朗普Z府对美 联储攻击的急剧升级。 鲍威尔通过美联储官方渠道发布了一份措辞严厉的视频及书面声明， 证实美联储已于1月9日周五收到司法部的大陪审 团传票。传票内容直指鲍威尔在2025年6月于国会就美联储总部翻修工程所作的证词，并威胁可能提起刑事起诉。 这 一行动标志着特朗普Z府对美联储的攻击从行政层面的辞职压力彻底转向了法律领域的。 并且明确表示 真实原因是美联储拒绝遵循总统的利率偏好，坚持基于经济数据和公众利益设定利率。 鲍威尔在声明中明确将此举定性为行政当局的政治报复。他指出，所谓的翻修工程和证词问题仅仅是"借 口"（Pretexts）， (⑨巢ﾊ珊瑚狂社 okup r 078 转载及 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - After the New Year's Day holiday, the issuance of Chinese offshore bonds has resumed. The yields of US Treasury bonds have shown divergence. The 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields decreased by 3 and increased by 6 basis points respectively last week, reaching 4.17% and 3.53%. The US December non - farm employment data was mixed, with weaker - than - expected job growth but more resilient unemployment and wage data. This led the interest rate futures market to no longer expect the Fed to continue cutting rates in January, pushing up short - term US Treasury yields [1][2][3]. - The tension between the Trump administration and the Fed has intensified. The market's concern about the Fed's independence has further increased, causing the US dollar index to fall, US stock futures to decline, and the gold price to rise significantly in the Asian session on Monday, indicating increased market risk - aversion. If market sentiment further strengthens, it may have a divergent impact on the bond market [1][4]. - In the on - shore market, after the New Year's Day holiday, funds returned to the banking system, inter - bank liquidity was abundant, and the central bank conducted net short - term liquidity withdrawals through reverse repurchase operations. The yields of 3 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds increased by 8 and 3 basis points respectively compared to before the holiday, mainly due to high on - shore market risk sentiment and a marginal weakening of easing expectations [1][6]. 3. Summary by Related Content Offshore Market - After the New Year's Day holiday, the new issuance of Chinese offshore bonds resumed. There were 6 new issuances of Chinese US - dollar bonds exceeding $100 million, with a total of approximately $1.9 billion, and the issuance of offshore RMB bonds was approximately 5.5 billion RMB [2]. - The Bloomberg Barclays Chinese US - dollar bond total return index rose 0.2% for the week, and the spread narrowed by 3 basis points. The high - rating index rose 0.2% with a spread narrowing of 1 basis point, and the high - yield index rose slightly by 0.1% with a spread narrowing of 17 basis points [4]. US Employment Data - The US added only 50,000 non - farm jobs in December, lower than the expected 65,000 and the previous value of 64,000. The non - farm employment data for October and November was revised downwards by a total of 76,000, resulting in the weakest annual growth since 2020. However, the unemployment rate in December was 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5% and the previous value of 4.6%. The average hourly wage increased by 0.3% month - on - month and 3.8% year - on - year, about 1 percentage point higher than the inflation rate [3]. Fed Tension - The US Department of Justice issued a grand jury subpoena to the Fed, and threatened to file criminal charges against Fed Chairman Powell's testimony in Congress last June. Powell denied the charges, stating that it was a consequence of the Fed's independent interest - rate setting. This has increased the market's concern about the Fed's independence [4]. On - shore Market - After the New Year's Day holiday, funds returned to the banking system, and the central bank conducted net short - term liquidity withdrawals of 122.14 billion RMB through reverse repurchase operations. The weighted average interest rates of 7 - day deposit - type institutional pledged repurchase and 7 - day inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased by 51 and 64 basis points respectively compared to before the holiday [6]. - The yields of 3 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds increased by 8 and 3 basis points respectively compared to before the holiday, mainly due to high on - shore market risk sentiment and a marginal weakening of easing expectations. Some funds flowed from the bond market to the stock market, and the central bank's emphasis on maintaining the stability of bank net interest margins was interpreted as a potential limitation on future interest - rate cuts [6]. Recent Chinese New - issued US - dollar Bonds - The report lists the information of recent Chinese new - issued US - dollar bonds, including the issuer, guarantor, coupon rate, issuance amount, maturity date, issuance structure, and ratings (by Moody's, S&P, and Fitch) [7]. Appendix: Chinese US - dollar Bond List - The appendix provides a detailed list of Chinese US - dollar bonds, including information such as the issuer, guarantor, coupon rate, issuance amount, price, maturity date, redemption date, issuance structure, and ratings [19][20][21].

分析人士指出，在白宫与美联储围绕货币政策龃龉不断的背景下，这一调查恐进一步侵蚀美联储的独立 性，增加其货币政策走向的不确定性。 鲍威尔11日在视频声明中表示，检方对他进行刑事调查是破坏美联储在设定利率方面"独立性"的"借 口"。"这关系到美联储是否还能依据证据和经济状况来制定利率——或者说，货币政策是否会受政治压 力或胁迫所左右。" 他认为，美国政府对他提出刑事指控威胁，是因为美联储依据对公众利益的最佳评估来设定利率，而不 是遵从总统的意愿。 美国司法部长帕姆·邦迪的发言人回应称，司法部已指示检方优先调查任何滥用纳税人资金的情况。 有媒体认为，鲍威尔遭刑事调查显示出白宫权力与美联储独立性的交锋已非一朝一夕，总统特朗普与鲍 威尔及美联储之间一系列冲突正在延续和升级。 美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔11日晚表示，美国联邦检察官已于9日向美联储送达传票，威胁就他 2025年6月在参议院银行委员会作证一事提起刑事诉讼，当时的证词涉及美联储办公楼翻新项目。 有观点分析指出，如果联邦检察官通过诉讼裁定鲍威尔有罪，特朗普将可依法解除其职务。虽然此类诉 讼通常难以迅速得出最终结果，但若检方正式起诉，势必会给鲍威尔的履职带来不确 ...

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under severe scrutiny as a criminal investigation into Chairman Jerome Powell has been initiated, raising concerns about the influence of political pressure on monetary policy [1][2][3] Group 1: Investigation and Political Pressure - The U.S. federal prosecutors are investigating Powell regarding potential false statements made to Congress about a renovation project, which has been interpreted as a tactic to undermine the Fed's independence in setting interest rates [1][2] - Powell has publicly stated that the investigation is a pretext to challenge the Fed's ability to make decisions based on economic evidence rather than political pressure [1][5] - Trump's ongoing attacks on Powell, including threats of dismissal, highlight a broader strategy to exert control over the Fed, particularly as the 2026 debt rollover approaches [2][3] Group 2: Implications for Monetary Policy - Analysts suggest that the investigation aims to pressure Powell into lowering interest rates, thereby weakening his decision-making autonomy and damaging his reputation [3][6] - The potential replacement of Powell could lead to a shift in the Fed's structure, with Trump having already nominated several members aligned with his economic views [6][7] - The investigation sets a precedent for using legal means to challenge policy disagreements, which could threaten the independence of future Fed chairs [6][7] Group 3: Market Reactions - The uncertainty surrounding the Fed's independence has led to significant market volatility, with a notable increase in gold prices and a decline in U.S. equities and bonds [1][7] - Analysts predict that if the Fed's independence is compromised, it could lead to a fundamental restructuring of global asset pricing, with the U.S. dollar losing its status as a safe-haven asset [7][8] - Gold is increasingly viewed as a hedge against the weakening dollar and potential inflation, with forecasts suggesting prices could reach between $5000 and $5200 per ounce [8][9]

Group 1 - Gold prices have reached a historic high, surpassing $4600 per ounce, with spot gold at $4584.725 and COMEX futures at $4597.6, marking a daily increase of approximately 2% [1] - Silver prices have also surged, with spot silver exceeding $84 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of over 5.5%, and year-to-date gains of 17.44% [1] - Domestic gold and silver futures in China have shown significant increases, with gold futures reaching a high of 1031.3 yuan per gram and silver futures hitting 20998 yuan per kilogram, marking daily increases of 2.57% and 14.42% respectively [1] Group 2 - The rise in gold and silver prices is attributed to concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, expectations of loose monetary policy, and geopolitical uncertainties, particularly the risk of military conflict between the U.S. and Iran [4] - Analysts suggest that the weakening of the dollar, strong ETF buying, and ongoing central bank purchases are driving gold prices higher, with central bank gold reserves reported at 7415 million ounces (approximately 2306.323 tons) [5] - The potential for central banks to increase their gold reserves significantly could push gold prices up by approximately $1000 if the top 50 central banks increase their gold holdings by just 1% [5] Group 3 - Short-term corrections in gold prices may occur due to overbought conditions, but bullish sentiment remains strong, especially amid rising risk aversion [6] - The outlook for precious metals remains positive, with expectations that the recent investigation into Powell will accelerate existing upward trends rather than create short-term fluctuations [6] - Morgan Stanley has raised its gold price target for Q4 2026 to $4800, noting a structural shift where gold's share in global central bank reserves has surpassed that of U.S. Treasuries for the first time since 1996 [6]

In a move without precedent in modern US history, the Justice Department has opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over statements he made to Congress about the renovation of the central bank's headquarters in Washington. ...

新华社纽约1月12日电 新闻分析｜美联储主席遭刑事调查 货币政策不确定性增加 新华社记者刘亚南 美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔11日晚表示，美国联邦检察官已于9日向美联储送达传票，威胁就他 2025年6月在参议院银行委员会作证一事提起刑事诉讼，当时的证词涉及美联储办公楼翻新项目。 分析人士指出，在白宫与美联储围绕货币政策龃龉不断的背景下，这一调查恐进一步侵蚀美联储的独立 性，增加其货币政策走向的不确定性。 鲍威尔11日在视频声明中表示，检方对他进行刑事调查是破坏美联储在设定利率方面"独立性"的"借 口"。"这关系到美联储是否还能依据证据和经济状况来制定利率——或者说，货币政策是否会受政治压 力或胁迫所左右。" 他认为，美国政府对他提出刑事指控威胁，是因为美联储依据对公众利益的最佳评估来设定利率，而不 是遵从总统的意愿。 美国司法部长帕姆·邦迪的发言人回应称，司法部已指示检方优先调查任何滥用纳税人资金的情况。 有媒体认为，鲍威尔遭刑事调查显示出白宫权力与美联储独立性的交锋已非一朝一夕，总统特朗普与鲍 威尔及美联储之间一系列冲突正在延续和升级。 从货币政策看，美联储在2025年9月至12月连续三次降息25个基点后， ...

Group 1 - The market sentiment of "selling America" is spreading due to escalating attacks from the Trump administration on the Federal Reserve, raising concerns about the Fed's independence [1][2] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell by 0.3%, marking its largest decline since December 23 of the previous year, while S&P 500 futures dropped by 0.7% [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 3 basis points to 4.20%, potentially reaching its highest closing price since September of the previous year [1] Group 2 - Strategists warn that if tensions continue to escalate, the sell-off may intensify, with Morgan Stanley highlighting the risk of a steepening U.S. Treasury yield curve [2] - UBS's chief strategist noted that now is not the time for markets to worry about the Fed's independence, as inflation in the U.S. may rise in the coming months [2] - The debate centers on the extent to which the President can influence national interest rate policy, which has traditionally been insulated from political interference [2] Group 3 - The news of the Fed receiving a subpoena may further diminish the attractiveness of U.S. assets, as noted by a strategist from Invesco [3] - Concerns about the Fed's independence could lead macro traders to increase short positions on the dollar [3] - The pressure to "sell America" is unlikely to dissipate as trading unfolds into 2026 [4] Group 4 - Some analysts maintain a cautious outlook, suggesting that any pullback could present a buying opportunity due to the dollar's strong reserve currency status and the liquidity of U.S. Treasuries [4] - The investigation facing Powell appears more like a smokescreen than a real threat, but its long-term implications could be significant [4]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has shown a strong upward trend at the beginning of the year, with gold and silver prices reaching new highs, driven by various factors including geopolitical risks and central bank purchases [1][3][7]. Price Performance - As of January 12, spot gold reached a high of $4600.79 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 6%. Silver also performed well, hitting a peak of $84.596 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 17% [1][2]. - The current prices for gold and silver are $4589.320 and $83.961 respectively, with gold showing a daily increase of 1.78% and silver 5.26% [2]. ETF Inflows - Significant inflows into gold ETFs have been observed, with major funds like the China Universal Gold ETF and E Fund Gold ETF seeing increases of over 13,000 shares each in the past week [3]. - The recent surge in gold prices has led to a high premium in the market, prompting fund companies to issue risk warnings and adjust their redemption policies [4][8]. Factors Driving Prices - The rise in gold and silver prices is attributed to three main factors: continued purchases by central banks, significant inflows from institutional investors into gold ETFs, and retail demand for physical gold and silver [6]. - Geopolitical risks and concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability are also contributing to the upward pressure on gold prices [7]. Market Adjustments - Several major banks have issued warnings regarding the risks associated with gold investments, including adjustments to trading rules and increased investment thresholds [10]. - The China Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China have raised the minimum investment amounts for gold accumulation products, reflecting a tightening of investment conditions [10]. Future Outlook - Institutions remain optimistic about the long-term upward potential of precious metals, although they caution that the pace and extent of price increases will depend on factors such as U.S. Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical developments [11]. - Analysts suggest that gold will continue to play a significant role in investment strategies, particularly as a hedge against economic uncertainties [11].