白银价格涨幅超过黄金 市场数据显示，本周现货黄金价格累计上涨约0.6%，而现货白银的累计涨幅却超过9%，站上35美元/盎司关口，其间更是一度突破36美元/盎司关口，为 2012年2月以来首次。 伦敦金现 < w SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC 总量 3351.920 0 3309.470 昨结 3353.827 现手 0 -42.450 -1.27% 开盘 最高价 3375.640 持 仓 外 盘 0 0 最低价 3306.915 增 仓 内 盘 0 0 五日 周K 月K 分时 更多 叠加 - 设均线 - MA5:3353.395↑ 10:3330.236↓ 20:3294.513↓ 3550.832 ← 3500.120 3228.123 2956.125 2905.414 2025-03-28 06-06 05-21 05-05 04-16 金价高位震荡，白银狂飙。 美东时间6月6日，现货黄金价格下跌超过1.2%，收报3309.47美元/盎司。而在6月7日，国内部分品牌金饰的金价也回到了每克1000元之下。 值得注意的是，在黄金价格开启高位震荡行情之际，白银价格近期持续走高，引发市场关注。数据显示，本周，现 ...

交易员们减少了对美联储降息的预期，这一举动显示出市场对美联储的货币政策有了新的看法。多种因 素，包括经济数据、金融市场的变化等，共同影响着交易员们的决策，使他们调整了对降息的押注规模 和预期。 经济数据强劲 近期公布的众多强劲经济数据，成为了交易员决策的重要依据。例如，就业数据大幅超过市场预期，失 业率持续走低，新增就业岗位数量可观，这些都充分反映出美国就业市场的持续繁荣。尽管通货膨胀指 标有所波动，但总体上仍保持稳定，没有出现明显下滑的趋势。这些数据暗示，美国经济目前具备较强 的抗风险能力，使得交易员对美联储是否将立即启动降息程序持保留态度。 市场情绪变化 投资者的心态正在发生微妙的变化。起初，大家普遍认为美联储会降低利率来提振经济。然而，随着经 济数据的公布和政策走向逐渐清晰，投资者的忧虑和谨慎情绪逐渐增强。不少交易员不再像以前那样大 胆地押注利率下调。机构投资者也在重新审视他们的资产配置，减少对那些与降息预期紧密相关的资产 的投入，市场趋势正在发生转变。 美联储表态谨慎 美联储自2024年9月连续降息以来首次维持利 率不变,符合市场预期。 2025年美联储货币政策以"暂停降息"拉开 序幕,后续货币政策路 ...

智通财经6月6日电，花旗将美联储降息预期从7月份调整到9月份。 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 6 月 6 日 星期五 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周四（6 月 5 日）A 股三大指数集体收涨，沪指涨 0.23%，收报 3384.10 点；深证成指涨 0.58%， 收报 10203.50 点；创业板指涨 1.17%，收报 2048.62 点。沪深两市成交额达到 1.29 万亿，较昨日放量 1374 亿。 沪深 300 指数 6 月 5 日强势依旧，收盘 3877.56，环比上涨 8.81。 【焦炭 焦煤】6 月 5 日焦炭加权指数震荡整理，收盘价 1343.0 元，环比上涨 7.4。 6 月 5 日，焦煤加权指数窄幅震荡，收盘价 759.1 元，环比上涨 11.8。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：淡季预期拖累需求兑现，铁水日产延续季节性回落趋势，焦炭入炉刚需支撑同步走弱，且钢厂原料维 持低库存运转，对上游压价情绪依然较强，本月焦炭现货仍有 1-2 轮提降预期。 焦煤：蒙煤出口资源税及安全生产月等事件扰动煤炭供给，但政策性减产尚未来临，原煤生产收紧幅度并不 显著，煤矿库存仍处历史高位，而下游需求进入传统淡季，钢焦企业开工负荷及原料备货积极性 ...

Group 1 - Silver futures surged over 4%, with焦煤 and glass rising over 3%, while synthetic rubber, logs, rapeseed meal, and industrial silicon increased over 2% [1] - The domestic silver price reached a new high, with spot silver surpassing $36 per ounce, marking the highest level since February 2012 [2] - The macroeconomic environment, including easing US-China trade tensions and poor US macro data, has led to increased expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, boosting demand for silver [2] Group 2 -焦煤 and glass showed significant rebounds, with both main contracts rising over 3%, driven by supply-side disturbances and rising coal prices [3] - Despite the rebound, the fundamentals for焦煤 and glass remain weak, with national float glass inventory reaching a new high of 69.754 million heavy boxes, up 3.09% from the previous week [3] - The overall sentiment in the market is expected to remain strong in the short term, influenced by production restrictions and coal price trends [3] Group 3 - Aluminum oxide futures experienced a sharp decline, with a nearly 3% drop by the end of the trading session, as domestic production increased due to the resumption of operations in previously shut-down plants [4] - The total inventory of aluminum oxide reached 3.805 million tons, ending a three-week trend of inventory reduction, indicating a shift in market sentiment [4] - The European shipping index fell over 4%, influenced by high prices and funding pressures, despite initial positive macroeconomic sentiment [4]

6月6日亚市早盘，现货黄金震荡微涨，交投于3360美元/盎司附近。昨日金价一度突破3400美元关口，创四周新高至3403.28美元，但随后因中美领导人通话 释放贸易缓和信号，收盘下跌0.6%至3352.63美元。当前市场聚焦晚间美国非农就业数据，预计5月新增就业13万人，失业率维持4.2%。 | 昨收 | 3352.63 | 最高 | 3368.58 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 开盘 | 3354.20 | | 3353.07 | | 买入 | 3362.26 | 卖出 | 3362.46 | 一、基本面解析：多空因素交织 贸易局势缓和压制避险需求 中美领导人通话释放积极信号，特朗普称双方在贸易问题上达成"非常积极的结论"，市场对关税冲突升级的担忧降温，黄金避险买盘减少。但分析师警告， 关税谈判的不确定性仍存，若后续谈判未达预期，避险需求可能迅速回升。 美国经济数据疲软支撑金价 上周初请失业金人数增至24.7万人，连续两周上升，显示劳动力市场放缓。同时，美国4月PCE物价指数同比2.1%低于预期，市场押注美联储9月降息概率升 至87%。非农数据若低于预期，可能进一步强化降息预期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The surge in global risk aversion has led to a significant increase in the precious metals market, particularly gold and silver, with silver emerging as a new favorite among investors [1][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong and A-share markets have seen substantial gains in the gold and precious metals sector, with China Silver Group rising over 21% and several other companies hitting their daily price limits [2]. - As of the latest data, spot silver has reached over $36 per ounce, marking a 13-year high, while COMEX silver futures are reported at $36.19 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of 1.08% [5]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand for silver is expected to reach record levels in 2024, contributing to a structural deficit in the silver market for the fourth consecutive year, driven by strong industrial demand, particularly in green energy sectors like solar power [8]. - The recent underperformance of U.S. economic data and the anticipation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have positively influenced the prices of silver and other industrially used precious metals [8]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Influences - Global geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-Iran relations, have heightened the demand for safe-haven assets, further boosting precious metals [8]. - The recent escalation of trade tensions, particularly with the doubling of tariffs on steel and aluminum by former President Trump, has raised concerns about potential tariffs on other key metals, impacting market sentiment [8]. Group 4: Future Price Expectations - Analysts predict that if U.S. non-farm payroll data falls short of expectations, it could strengthen market bets on a July rate cut by the Federal Reserve, potentially leading to a significant rise in precious metal prices [9]. - Forecasts suggest that silver prices could reach $40 by the end of this year or early 2026, with ongoing central bank purchases and robust safe-haven demand driving this trend [9].

Group 1 - Mortgage rates have seen a slight decline for the first time in a month, with the 30-year average rate at 6.85%, down from 6.89% the previous week, and the 15-year average at 5.99%, down from 6.03% [1] - The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 4% week-over-week decline in purchase applications, although they remain higher than the same period last year, with refinancing applications also down by 4% [1] - The decline in mortgage rates is closely linked to a drop in the 10-year Treasury yield, which fell significantly following weak service sector activity and a sharp decrease in private sector job growth [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve does not directly control mortgage rates but influences them through expectations regarding benchmark interest rates [2] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is anticipated to provide insights into the health of the job market, with economists predicting an addition of 128,000 jobs last month [2]

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, maintains its holdings at 935.65 tons as of June 5, 2025, amidst fluctuating gold prices influenced by market sentiment and economic data [2][7]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of June 5, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's total holdings remain unchanged at 935.65 tons of gold [2][7]. - The gold price experienced volatility, peaking above $3400 per ounce before closing at $3352.65, down $19.39 or 0.58% [7]. Group 2: Market Influences - Poor economic data from the U.S., including higher-than-expected initial jobless claims, has increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, contributing to gold price fluctuations [7]. - Metals Focus predicts that global central banks will purchase 1000 tons of gold in 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of significant gold buying [7]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest a bullish trend for gold, with resistance levels at $3400, $3438, and $3450, while short-term support is at $3300 [9]. - The gold market shows a strong momentum, with the relative strength index (RSI) around 57, indicating a prevailing bullish sentiment [8]. Group 4: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver has shown stronger recent performance, reaching its highest level since February 2012, with a current gold-silver ratio of 94, down from 105 in April [8]. - Analysts warn of potential volatility in the silver market, predicting possible sharp movements in either direction [8].

| | 变量名称 | 2025-06-05 | 2025-06-04 | 2025-05-27 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 收盘价 | 78170 | 78200 | 78210 | -30.00 | | | | 成交量(手) | 64095 | 111382 | 67182 | -47,287.00 | | | | 持仓量(手) | 193023 | 195214 | 127084 | -2,191.00 | | | | 库存(吨) | 31687 | 31933 | 34961 | -246.00 | | | 沪铜基差或现货升贴水 | SMN 1#电解铜平均价 | 78415 | 78485 | 78515 | -70.00 | | | | 沪铜县差 | 245 | 285 | 305 | -40.00 | | | | 广州电解铜现货升贴水 | -15 | -65 | 220 | 50.00 | nonin | | (现货与期货) | 华北电解铜现货升贴水 | -220 | -220 | ...