南华贵金属日报： 黄金&白银：降息预期摇摆不定 贵金属冲高回落 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月14日 【行情回顾】 周四贵金属价格冲高后回落调整。美政府停摆暂时缓解后，贵金属进入阶段性获利了结阶段，同时美联储官 员释放对12月FOMC鹰派言论，加剧贵金属与金融市场调整。消息面，美国众议院通过临时拨款法案，联邦 政府关门结束，特朗普首席经济顾问哈塞特表示，10月将获得一半的就业报告，没有失业率数据，估计政府 关门造成6万人失业。美联储官员密集发声，整体传递出对降息路径的谨慎甚至偏鹰派立场，12月降息预期已 下降至5成：今年票委穆萨莱姆强调，面对不确定性，政策制定需保持谨慎，避免激进调整；明年票委哈玛克 主张，当前利率水平已具限制性，建议"按兵不动"，观察经济反应；明年票委卡什卡利明确表态，不支持 上月末的降息决定，认为12月是否行动应完全取决于即将公布的数据；后年票委戴利指出，现在就判断12月 是否降息"为时过早"，需等待更多证据验证经济走势。最终COMEX黄金2512合约收报4174.5美元/盎 司，-0.93%；美白银2512合约 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Expectations of interest rate cuts are rising [2]. - Silver: Reached a new high [2]. - Copper: Macro - level disturbances limit price increases [2]. - Zinc: Trading in a range [2]. - Lead: Reduced overseas inventories support prices [2]. - Tin: Pulled back from a high [2]. - Aluminum: Tend to fluctuate upward [2]. - Alumina: Trading at the bottom [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Nickel: High inventory accumulation competes with risks in Indonesia, trading at a low level [2]. - Stainless steel: Lacks upward momentum, but the downside is also limited [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: Shanghai Gold 2512 closed at 961.22 with a daily increase of 1.63%, and its night - session closing price was 956.96 with a 0.11% increase. Shanghai Silver 2512 closed at 12588 with a 4.34% daily increase, and its night - session closing price was 12405.00 with a 0.40% increase. Trading volumes and positions of both gold and silver contracts showed certain changes compared with the previous day [4]. - **Inventory and ETF**: Gold and silver ETF positions and inventory levels also changed. For example, the SPDR Gold ETF position increased by 2 to 1,048.93, and the SLV Silver ETF position (the day before yesterday) increased by 85 to 15,173.28 [4]. - **News**: Multiple Fed officials made hawkish remarks, and the market predicts that the probability of an interest rate cut in December is less than 50%. The US House of Representatives passed a temporary appropriation bill, ending the government shutdown [4][7]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 87,550 with a 0.82% daily increase, and its night - session closing price was 87400 with a - 0.17% change. The London Copper 3M electronic - trading closing price was 10,859 with a - 0.35% change [8]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Copper inventories in Shanghai and London decreased, and various spreads also showed different changes [8]. - **News**: China's new social financing in October was 810 billion yuan, and new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan, with the M2 - M1 gap widening. The US House of Representatives passed a temporary appropriation bill, and the US government shutdown ended. The US officially included copper in the new key mineral list [8][10]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22740 with a 0.26% daily increase, and the London Zinc 3M electronic - trading closing price was 3072 with a 0.10% increase. Trading volumes and positions of both Shanghai and London zinc contracts changed [11]. - **News**: Multiple Fed officials made hawkish remarks [11]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17670 with a 0.06% daily increase, and the London Lead 3M electronic - trading closing price was 2092 with a 1.21% increase. Trading volumes and positions of both Shanghai and London lead contracts changed [14]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Shanghai lead inventories increased, while London lead inventories decreased. Various spreads also showed different changes [14]. - **News**: China's new social financing in October was 810 billion yuan, and new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan, with the M2 - M1 gap widening. The US House of Representatives passed a temporary appropriation bill, and the US government shutdown ended [14]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 298,140 with a 1.95% daily increase, and the London Tin 3M electronic - trading closing price was 37,065 with a - 0.91% change. Trading volumes and positions of both Shanghai and London tin contracts changed [18]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Shanghai tin inventories increased, and London tin inventories remained unchanged. Various spreads also showed different changes [18]. - **News**: Multiple Fed officials made hawkish remarks, and China's new social financing in October was 810 billion yuan, etc [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 22050, with certain changes compared with previous trading days. Alumina and cast aluminum alloy also had corresponding price and trading - volume data changes [22]. - **Inventory and Spread**: LME aluminum inventories and various spreads showed different trends [22]. - **News**: China's new social financing in October was 810 billion yuan, and the US government shutdown ended [24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 118,930, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,475. Trading volumes and positions of both nickel and stainless - steel contracts changed [25]. - **News**: An Indonesian mining company's mining area was taken over, and the Indonesian government suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses [25][28].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, after the end of the longest government shutdown in US history, the market shifted its focus to key US economic data. Concerns about inflation and differences among Fed policymakers regarding the health of the US economy led to a reduced expectation of interest rate cuts. Additionally, several Fed officials adopted a hawkish stance before the release of major economic data, causing an increase in US Treasury yields and a significant decline in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's manufacturing prosperity level declined in October, and exports unexpectedly decreased, leading to a slowdown in economic growth and dampening optimistic expectations to some extent. However, China's inflation data in October unexpectedly recovered and rebounded, with the supply - side continuing to exert efforts. Policy - wise, the central bank restarted Treasury bond trading operations to release liquidity into the market, and the domestic monetary policy was intensified, along with abundant liquidity, which boosted domestic risk appetite. The recent market trading logic mainly focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and the quality of economic growth. The short - term macro upward driving force has increased, and the stock index is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term. [3] - In terms of assets, the stock index is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, and it is advisable to cautiously go long in the short term. Treasury bonds are expected to rebound with short - term fluctuations, and it is advisable to cautiously go long. Among commodity sectors, the black sector is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is advisable to cautiously observe; the non - ferrous sector is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is advisable to cautiously go long; the energy and chemical sector is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is advisable to cautiously observe; precious metals are expected to rebound with short - term fluctuations, and it is advisable to cautiously go long. [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: After the end of the government shutdown, the market focused on key economic data. Inflation concerns and differences among Fed officials reduced the expectation of interest rate cuts. Fed officials' hawkish remarks before major data releases led to an increase in US Treasury yields and a decline in global risk appetite. [3] - Domestic: In October, China's manufacturing prosperity declined, and exports unexpectedly decreased, slowing economic growth. However, inflation data unexpectedly recovered, and the supply - side continued to work. The central bank restarted Treasury bond trading to release liquidity, and the monetary policy was intensified, boosting domestic risk appetite. The market trading logic focuses on domestic incremental policies and economic growth. The short - term macro upward driving force has increased, and the stock index is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. [3] Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as energy metals, batteries, and industrial metals, the domestic stock market rose significantly. Fundamentally, China's manufacturing prosperity declined in October, and exports unexpectedly decreased, slowing economic growth and dampening optimism. However, inflation data unexpectedly recovered, and the supply - side continued to work. Policy - wise, the central bank's actions boosted domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro upward driving force has increased, and the stock index is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term. It is advisable to cautiously go long in the short term. [3][4] Precious Metals - On Thursday night, the precious metals market rose overall. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 956.96 yuan/gram, up 0.11%; the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 12405 yuan/kilogram, up 0.40%. Due to the sell - off in the market after the US government reopened and several Fed officials' hawkish remarks, precious metals were under some pressure in the short term. Spot gold fell 0.65% to $4171.1 per ounce. Precious metals are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, and the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains unchanged. It is advisable to cautiously go long in the short term and buy on dips in the medium - to - long term. [4] Black Metals - **Steel**: On Thursday, the domestic steel spot market rebounded slightly, while the futures price continued to be weak. The stock market's rise boosted market sentiment. Fundamentally, real - world demand continued to weaken, but the decline in this week's data slowed down. The apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by about 6300 tons week - on - week. On the supply side, due to steel mill losses, steel production capacity was further restricted, and the output of five major steel products decreased by 22360 tons week - on - week. In the short term, the steel market will continue to fluctuate within a range, and the room for further decline below 3000 points for rebar is limited. [7] - **Iron Ore**: On Thursday, the futures and spot prices of iron ore continued to fluctuate. Steel mill losses continued, and iron - water production is expected to decline further. However, with the improvement of market sentiment, the market has started to bet on the bottom of iron - water production. On the supply side, this week's iron ore shipments decreased by 144800 tons week - on - week, and arrivals decreased by 477200 tons week - on - week. However, port inventories increased by 195000 tons on Monday, indicating an oversupply of ore. Although the Simandou iron ore mine has been put into production, it will take time to have a substantial impact on the domestic market. Currently, the key factors determining the iron ore price are the process of the decline in iron - water production and when the bottom will appear. It is advisable to view iron ore with a range - bound trading idea in the short term. [7] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Thursday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained flat. The futures price of silicon iron rebounded slightly, while that of silicon manganese weakened. The output of five major steel products decreased slightly, leading to a decline in ferroalloy demand. The price of silicon manganese 6517 in the northern market is 5570 - 5620 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 5580 - 5630 yuan/ton. Hebei Iron and Steel Group's first inquiry price for silicon manganese in November is 5750 yuan/ton, and other steel mills are following suit. The spot price of manganese ore is firm. The mainstream price of semi - carbonate in Tianjin Port is 34.5 yuan/ton - degree, the price of South African high - iron manganese ore is 29.8 - 30 yuan/ton - degree, the price of Gabonese manganese ore is 40.5 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of Australian lump ore is in the range of 39.5 - 41 yuan/ton - degree, with slow - growing transactions. The supply of silicon manganese decreased slightly. The operating rate (capacity utilization) of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises in the country is 40.24%, a decrease of 2.75% from last week; the daily output is 28840 tons, a decrease of 835 tons. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas is 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron is 5700 yuan/ton. The price of raw material semi - coke is stable. The price of medium - sized semi - coke in Shenmu market is 850 - 920 yuan/ton, the price of small - sized semi - coke is 800 - 850 yuan/ton, and the price of coke powder is 530 - 630 yuan/ton. The supply of silicon iron increased slightly. The operating rate (capacity utilization) of 136 independent silicon iron enterprises in the country is 36.26%, a 0.18% increase from last week; the daily output is 16300 tons, a 0.80% increase (130 tons) from last week. The futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. [8] Non - ferrous and New Energy - **Copper**: The US copper inventory continued to rise, approaching 380000 short tons, a historical high, which restricts future import demand. There is a possibility of the Panama copper mine restarting. In China, the destocking of refined copper was less than expected. As of November 13, the social copper inventory was 201100 tons, a 5200 - ton increase from the previous period, still at a relatively high level and the highest in three years. The shutdown of Indonesia's second - largest copper mine has intensified the global copper mine shortage, which will support the futures price. It is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term. [9] - **Aluminum**: On Thursday, Shanghai aluminum continued to rise, reaching a three - and - a - half - year high, boosted by the optimistic sentiment after the end of the US government shutdown. Technically, all time frames are in an overbought state, and the hourly chart shows a long upper shadow line, indicating a possible short - term hourly - level correction, while the daily - level trend is unclear. Fundamentally, there is no change, and inventory destocking is still not going well. Although the 620000 - ton inventory is not high, it is not low either. In addition, the arrival of goods at Port Klang led to an increase of 9125 tons in LME aluminum inventory. The market is still worried about future supply, with a tight supply expectation. The market is trading based on expectations and temporarily ignoring the fundamentals. However, as the off - season approaches, the market will eventually return to reality. Aluminum prices are expected to be strong and volatile in the short term, but if the expectations are revised later and combined with real - world pressure, aluminum prices will face a significant correction. [10] - **Tin**: On Thursday, the tin price reached a three - and - a - half - year high, driven by macro sentiment and supply concerns. On the supply side, the maintenance of a large - scale smelting enterprise in Yunnan has ended, and the combined operating rate of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi has slightly increased to 69.13%. The actual shortage of tin ore in the mine end continues. Although the mining licenses in Wa State, Myanmar, have been issued, due to the local rainy season and the slow actual resumption of production, the tin ore export volume is still far below the normal level and cannot effectively make up for the current supply gap. On the demand side, the peak season is not prosperous. The operating rate of tin solder in October decreased slightly and remained at a low level. Traditional industries such as consumer electronics and home appliances have weak demand and insufficient orders. The pre - installation in the photovoltaic sector in the early stage has overdrawn the later - stage installation demand, and the photovoltaic installation has almost halved since June. After the continuous decline, the social inventory of tin ingots has increased by 349 tons to 7033 tons, mainly due to the combined effect of the increase in supply from the resumption of maintenance and the relatively weak downstream demand. The tin price is at a historical high, and the inhibitory effect of high prices on physical demand has begun to appear. The spot market's acceptance of the current price level is limited, and it is mainly for just - in - time replenishment. In summary, the tin price has support in the medium - to - short term, but the inhibitory effect of high prices on consumption limits the upward space. It is expected to remain volatile at a high level, and risks should be noted. [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Thursday, the main contract of lithium carbonate 2601 rose 1.39%, with the latest settlement price at 88360 yuan/ton. The weighted contract added 33853 lots, and the total open interest was 1.0373 million lots. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate quoted by Steel Union is 87750 yuan/ton (a 1700 - yuan increase from the previous period). The latest CIF price of Australian spodumene is 1050 US dollars/ton (a 30 - dollar increase from the previous period). The production profit of purchasing spodumene is - 907 yuan/ton. On November 6, the evaluation report of the mining right transfer income of Jianxiawo was publicly announced, which may be regarded as the active promotion of the resumption of production in Jianxiawo. The market quickly digested the negative news, and the demand logic still prevails. It is expected to be strong and volatile, but attention should be paid to the repeated disturbances on the supply side and hedging pressure. [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: On Thursday, the main contract of industrial silicon 2601 fell 0.22%, with the latest settlement price at 9180 yuan/ton. The weighted contract's open interest was 267800 lots, adding 41.84 lots. The price of oxygen - containing 553 industrial silicon in East China is 9500 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous period), and the futures price is at a discount of 355 yuan/ton. After the end of the wet season, the production of industrial silicon in Southwest China has significantly decreased. The demand is relatively stable, and the overall situation is one of weak supply and demand. Attention should be paid to whether effective destocking can be achieved during the dry season. It is expected that the market will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the cash - flow cost support of large enterprises, and it is advisable to operate within the range and buy on dips. [12] - **Polysilicon**: On Thursday, the main contract of polysilicon 2601 rose 3.69%, with the latest settlement price at 53940 yuan/ton. The weighted contract's open interest was 144000 lots, adding 2397 lots. The latest price of N - type re -投料 is 51500 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous period). The price of N - type silicon wafers is 1.3 yuan/piece (a 0.1 - yuan increase from the previous period), the price of single - crystal Topcon battery cells (M10) is 0.305 yuan/watt (unchanged from the previous period), and the price of N - type components (centralized): 182mm is 0.67 yuan/watt (unchanged from the previous period). The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 9130 lots (a 720 - lot decrease from the previous period). There is a stalemate between strong policy expectations and weak reality. There is still support for the spot price of polysilicon under policy expectations, but weak terminal demand makes it difficult for downstream prices to rise. The recent rumor of polysilicon stockpiling has caused disturbances. It is expected that polysilicon will be volatile at a high level, and it is advisable to buy on dips. [13][14] Energy and Chemical - **Methanol**: The inland methanol market remained stable, and the basis of the port methanol market remained stable and slightly weak. The spot negotiation price is 2065 - 2070 yuan/ton, with a basis of about 01 - 40/ - 35; the negotiation price for November delivery is 2085 - 2087 yuan/ton, with a basis of about 01 - 20/ - 18; the negotiation price for December delivery is 2115 - 2118 yuan/ton, with a basis of about 01 + 10/+13. As of November 12, 2025, the total methanol port inventory in China was 1.5436 million tons, a 56500 - ton increase from the previous period. Among them, the inventory in East China increased by 64900 tons, while the inventory in South China decreased by 8400 tons. The production enterprise inventory was 369300 tons, a 17200 - ton decrease from the previous period, a 4.44% decline. Both the inland and port areas have seen inventory increases. The deterioration of the inland supply - demand situation has made the price lose support and continue to decline. Downstream demand has weakened, and inland plants are restarting. The fundamental pressure is still large, with a downward driving force. However, the firm and rising coal price is squeezing methanol profits, and the price is approaching the import cost. Iranian plants are planned to shut down in mid - November, which provides some support in terms of expectations. The real - world situation still needs substantial improvement. It is expected that the price will continue to decline with fluctuations in the near future, but the decline rate may slow down, and the decline space is limited. [15] - **PP**: The offer price is mainly in a weak and volatile state. The mainstream price of East China drawstring PP is 6330 - 6580 yuan/ton. According to Longzhong Information on November 13, the polyolefin inventory of the two major state - owned petrochemical companies is 665000 tons, a 25000 - ton decrease from the previous day. As of November 12, 2025, the sample inventory of polypropylene ports increased by 2300 tons from the previous period, a 3.56% increase, and the inventory has increased compared with last week. The inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased by 15100 tons from the previous period (November 5, 2025), a 6.61% decrease. Currently, although the demand for polypropylene has improved, the supply growth rate is too fast, leading to an increase in inventory. As the traditional off - season approaches, demand is expected to gradually weaken, while the supply will remain at a high level due to plant restarts. The market fundamentals are under pressure. Coupled with the weak and volatile crude oil price, the cost support is insufficient. It is expected that the polypropylene price will continue to decline. [16]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - 10 - month financial data shows continued deposit transfer, with credit growth slowing due to the off - season and delayed policy effects. The deposit activation trend has slightly slowed, but the deposit transfer process continues in the context of a vibrant capital market [7][8]. - PX has a strong medium - term trend and is suitable for positive spreads. Factors such as overseas blending demand, supply shortages, and future supply - demand gaps support this view [9][10]. - Pure benzene is mainly in short - term oscillations, and it is advisable to buy on dips for PX - BZ [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Metals - **Gold**: With rising expectations of interest rate cuts, it reached a new high [14][17]. - **Silver**: Reached a new high [14]. - **Copper**: Macro - disturbances limit price increases [14][21]. - **Zinc**: Trades in a range [14][24]. - **Lead**: Reduced overseas inventories support prices [14][27]. - **Tin**: Declined from high levels [14][29]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillates with a slight upward bias; Alumina oscillates at the bottom; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [14][35]. - **Nickel**: High inventories and Indonesian risks lead to low - level oscillations; Stainless steel lacks upward drivers and has limited downside [14][38]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Oscillates at high levels with potential upward pressure [14][43]. Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: Medium - term trend is strong, positive spreads [9][10][68]. - **PTA**: Cost - supported, with high - level oscillations and limited positive spread space [68][71]. - **MEG**: Supply pressure eases marginally, but the rebound height is limited [68][72]. - **Rubber**: Oscillates [14][73]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Short - term oscillations are supported [14][77]. - **Asphalt**: Oscillates at low levels [14][80]. - **LLDPE**: Some supply disturbances, attention to import pressure [14][93]. - **PP**: Trend is weak [14][97]. - **Caustic Soda**: Oscillates [14][102]. - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillates [14][107]. - **Glass**: Spot prices are stable [14][112]. - **Methanol**: Short - term oscillations [14][116]. - **Urea**: Runs within the valuation range [14][120]. - **Styrene**: Short - term oscillations [14][123]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changes little [14][126]. - **LPG**: Demand improvement is limited, and the disk valuation is high; Propylene has short - term support due to narrowing supply - demand [14][129]. - **PVC**: Still under pressure [14][137]. - **Fuel Oil**: Continues to decline, weaker than low - sulfur in the short term; Low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude oil and weakens [14][142]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Lacks drivers and oscillates [14][160][172]. - **Soybean Oil**: With stable US soybeans, the spread between soybean and palm oil continues to widen [14][172]. - **Soybean Meal**: Oscillates strongly, waiting for the USDA supply - demand report [14][179]. - **Soybean**: Oscillates strongly, waiting for the report [14][179]. - **Corn**: Oscillates [14][182]. - **Cotton**: Lacks upward drivers and the price declines slightly [14][186]. - **Eggs**: Maintains oscillations [14][192]. - **Hogs**: The spread between fat and standard pigs weakens, and drivers emerge [14][194]. - **Peanuts**: Attention to the spot market [14][198]. Others - **Logs**: Oscillates repeatedly [14][64]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Oscillates [14][144]. - **Short Fibers**: Upstream fluctuations increase, short - term oscillations are slightly strong [14][157]. - **Bottle Chips**: Upstream fluctuations increase, short - term oscillations are slightly strong [14][157]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillates at low levels [14][160].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report presents the market trends and outlooks for various commodities on November 14, 2025, including precious metals, base metals, energy products, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity has its own specific trend, such as gold seeing a rise in interest rate cut expectations, silver hitting a new high, and copper being restricted by macro - disturbances [2]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Interest rate cut expectations are rising, with the Shanghai Gold 2512 contract closing at 961.22 yuan with a daily increase of 1.63%. Trend strength is 1 [2][5]. - **Silver**: It has reached a new high, with the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract closing at 12,588 yuan with a daily increase of 4.34%. Trend strength is 1 [2][5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Macro - disturbances limit price increases. The Shanghai Copper main contract closed at 87,550 yuan with a daily increase of 0.82%. Trend strength is 0 [2][9]. - **Zinc**: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The Shanghai Zinc main contract closed at 22,740 yuan with a daily increase of 0.26%. Trend strength is 0 [2][12]. - **Lead**: Decreasing overseas inventories support the price. The Shanghai Lead main contract closed at 17,670 yuan with a daily increase of 0.06%. Trend strength is 0 [2][15]. - **Tin**: It has fallen from a high level. The Shanghai Tin main contract closed at 298,140 yuan with a daily increase of 1.95%. Trend strength is 1 [2][17]. - **Aluminum**: It is oscillating with a slightly upward trend. The Shanghai Aluminum main contract closed at 22,050 yuan. Trend strength is 1 [2][22]. - **Alumina**: It is oscillating at the bottom. The Shanghai Alumina main contract closed at 2,840 yuan. Trend strength is 0 [2][22]. - **Nickel**: High inventories and risks in Indonesia are in a game, resulting in low - level oscillation. The Shanghai Nickel main contract closed at 118,930 yuan. Trend strength is 0 [2][25]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is a lack of upward drive, and the downside is not extensive. The Stainless Steel main contract closed at 12,475 yuan. Trend strength is 0 [2][25]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is oscillating at a high level with potential upward pressure. The 2601 contract closed at 87,840 yuan. Trend strength is 0 [2][30]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are continuing to decline, with strong bottom support. The Si2601 contract closed at 9,145 yuan. Trend strength is 1 [2][33]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the possibility of sentiment decline. The PS2601 contract closed at 54,195 yuan. Trend strength is 0 [2][34]. - **Iron Ore**: The inventory build - up pressure has materialized, and the price has fallen from a high level. The 12601 contract closed at 774 yuan with a daily increase of 1.44%. Trend strength is 0 [2][37]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The decline in apparent demand data has narrowed, and they are in wide - range oscillations. The RB2601 and HC2601 contracts are the main ones for observation. Trend strength for both is 0 [2][40]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: Cost provides bottom support, and they are in wide - range oscillations. Trend strength for both is 0 [2][44]. - **Coke**: It is following the downward trend. The J2601 contract closed at 1,881 yuan with a daily decrease of 0.2%. Trend strength is - 1 [2][48]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply expectations are fluctuating, and the valuation has declined. The JM2601 contract closed at 1,214 yuan with a daily decrease of 0.4%. Trend strength is - 1 [2][49]. - **Log**: It is oscillating repeatedly. The 2601 contract closed at 783.5 yuan with a daily increase of 0.6%. Trend strength is 0 [2][51]. Others There are also various other commodities such as plastics, fibers, and agricultural products, each with their own specific trends and price movements as described in the report [2].

Core Viewpoint - The optimism following the end of the U.S. government shutdown quickly dissipated, leading to widespread selling of high-valuation tech stocks and risk assets due to concerns over delayed economic data and uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Investors accelerated the sell-off of momentum stocks that had seen significant gains this year, shifting towards safer assets, resulting in a notable decline in risk asset prices and the largest single-day drop in U.S. stocks in a month [2]. - The Nasdaq Composite Index, heavily weighted with tech stocks, fell by 2.29%, with major tech companies like Tesla and Nvidia dropping 6.64% and 3.58% respectively [2]. - The cryptocurrency market also felt the impact, with Bitcoin falling below $100,000 and Ethereum dropping over 10% at one point [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Influence - The immediate catalyst for the sell-off was cautious remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, indicating that interest rate cuts should be approached with caution, leading to a sharp decline in the probability of a rate cut by December from over 70% to around 50% [2][9]. - Statements from Federal Reserve officials reinforced market caution, with comments highlighting the need for a careful approach to further rate cuts due to inflation remaining above the 2% target [11]. Group 3: Sector Rotation - Momentum stocks and AI-related stocks were particularly hard hit, with a basket of high-momentum stocks tracked by Bank of America dropping 4.7%, marking the worst single-day performance since April [3]. - Funds are increasingly flowing into defensive sectors such as healthcare and consumer staples, with the healthcare sector seeing significant inflows as hedge funds seek to hedge against the risks associated with AI stock weakness [6][7]. - The Ark Innovation ETF and VanEck Social Sentiment ETF both fell over 5%, indicating a broad-based market sell-off [5]. Group 4: Upcoming Economic Data - Following the end of the government shutdown, the market is bracing for a "data deluge" as delayed economic data is expected to be released, which could lead to significant market volatility [14]. - Key economic reports, particularly October's employment data, are crucial for the Federal Reserve's assessment of the labor market and inflation trends, directly impacting future interest rate decisions [14].

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a significant decline on Thursday, with the three major indices recording their largest single-day drop in over a month, primarily driven by a downturn in AI leaders [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 797.6 points, closing at 47,457.22, a drop of 1.65%; the S&P 500 decreased by 1.66% to 6,737.49; and the Nasdaq Composite plummeted by 2.29% to 22,870.36 [2] Technology Sector - All seven major tech companies faced pressure, with Microsoft down 1.54%, Amazon down 2.71%, Apple down 0.19%, Tesla down 6.64%, Nvidia down 3.58%, and Google A down 2.84%; only Meta saw a slight increase of 0.14% [2] - In the S&P 500, nine out of eleven sectors declined, with the consumer discretionary sector leading the drop at 2.73% and the information technology sector falling by 2.37% [2] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks also faced challenges, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index falling by 1.59%; Baidu dropped over 6%, Bilibili fell nearly 5%, and both Xpeng Motors and NIO declined by over 3% [2] Economic Indicators - The US government reopened after a record 43-day shutdown, but the overall economic sentiment remains weak due to the disruption of key economic data releases [3] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in December have decreased to approximately 47%, down from 70% the previous week, reflecting uncertainty in the Federal Reserve's policy outlook [3] Company-Specific Developments - Cisco saw a rise of 4.6% after raising its full-year revenue and profit forecasts, benefiting from sustained demand for networking equipment [3] - Disney experienced a sharp decline of 7.8% as the company warned that its distribution dispute with YouTube TV could become prolonged, raising concerns about further pressures on its traditional television business [3]

Group 1: Oil Market Insights - Oil prices are currently experiencing a tug-of-war between supply and demand, with a short-term rebound seen as a temporary relief rather than a reversal [3] - The International Energy Agency has indicated a supply surplus for oil next year, while U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 6.4 million barrels, the largest rise since July [3] - The market is reacting to increased sanctions on Russian oil companies and a decline in refined oil inventories, suggesting that demand remains resilient [3] Group 2: Copper Market Dynamics - Copper prices have stabilized after four consecutive days of increases, driven by the end of the U.S. government shutdown, which had previously hindered the release of key economic data [3] - Copper is viewed as an "industrial barometer," closely tied to infrastructure and manufacturing, with domestic growth initiatives supporting demand [3] Group 3: Gold Market Trends - The recent decline in gold prices is primarily attributed to changing expectations regarding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with the probability of a December rate cut now at 50% [4] - Gold's appeal diminishes when interest rates do not decrease or rise, but its long-term value is still linked to inflation and global risk sentiment [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Companies in the energy sector should focus on those with reasonable valuations and stable cash flows, particularly in oil and gas extraction and refining [5] - For copper-related investments, attention should be given to firms tied to domestic infrastructure and new energy projects, as demand is expected to remain strong [5] - In the gold sector, a wait-and-see approach is recommended until interest rate expectations become clearer or global risk sentiment increases [5]

在总统特朗普签署了一项结束美国历史上最长政府停摆的支出法案后，黄金价格突破了4200美元关口， 此前停摆曾使美联储的关键经济数据被搁置。三菱日联金融集团的Soojin Kim表示："市场押注，一旦 数据流恢复，更疲软的美国经济前景可能会支持额外的降息，这将支持不生息的金属。尽管如此，美联 储内部的分歧依然存在，一些决策者倾向于暂停降息以遏制通胀。"黄金期货今年已上涨超过60%，受 到央行强劲需求和投资者寻求对冲主要经济体不断上升的财政风险的支撑。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Conclusions - The U.S. government shutdown has ended after 43 days, marking the longest shutdown in U.S. history, following the signing of a temporary funding bill by President Trump [1] - The release of significant liquidity from the Treasury General Account (TGA), which had accumulated nearly $1 trillion during the shutdown, is expected to ease global liquidity constraints [2] - The resumption of employment data disclosures, including non-farm payrolls, is likely to reignite expectations for interest rate cuts, as the labor market may show signs of weakness due to the shutdown's impact [3] - With the U.S. government reopening and a shift towards looser dollar liquidity, a rebound in risk assets, particularly Hong Kong stocks, is anticipated [4] - A strategic asset allocation favoring Hong Kong innovative pharmaceuticals, Hang Seng Technology, and gold is recommended, as broader asset classes are expected to benefit from the easing liquidity conditions [5] Global Major Asset Changes - Domestic CPI and PPI have unexpectedly improved, reinforcing inflation expectations, with CPI turning positive at 0.2% and PPI's decline narrowing to -2.1% [16][18] - October exports unexpectedly turned negative year-on-year, influenced by high base effects, while exports to the U.S. increased, indicating resilience in trade with emerging markets [17] - The prolonged U.S. government shutdown has led to liquidity tightening, impacting various asset classes, but this is expected to improve with the government's reopening [21] - The ADP employment data showed unexpected improvement, suggesting a potential increase in labor supply due to the shutdown's effects on government employees [25] - The Federal Reserve officials are leaning towards a cautious approach regarding interest rate cuts, with limited future rate reductions anticipated [29] Recent Major Asset Review - Domestic stock markets experienced a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.27% while the CSI 300 fell by 0.66% [33] - U.S. and European stock markets saw declines due to the government shutdown and tightening liquidity, with the Nasdaq dropping by 3.04% [35] - U.S. Treasury yields increased amid uncertainties regarding interest rate cuts, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.10% [37] - Commodity prices fell, with WTI crude oil and Brent oil prices decreasing by 2.02% and 1.76%, respectively, due to concerns over demand [40] - The U.S. dollar index fluctuated, ultimately decreasing by 0.20%, while the onshore and offshore RMB experienced slight depreciation [42]