Core Viewpoint - Precious metals, including gold and silver, have collectively surged, reaching new historical highs, with gold breaking the $4,400 per ounce mark for the first time, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 67% [1]. Group 1: Gold Market - As of December 22, spot and futures gold prices have continued to rise, with London gold reaching $4,401.274 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 67% [1]. - COMEX gold has stabilized around $4,430 per ounce, also setting a new historical high [3]. - Domestic gold prices have been adjusted upwards, with Chow Tai Fook's gold price reaching 1,368 RMB per gram, reflecting a daily increase of 0.59% [5]. Group 2: Silver and Other Precious Metals - On December 22, both spot and futures silver prices have hit new historical highs, with London silver at $69.229 per ounce, showing a daily increase of 3.25% [8]. - COMEX silver is reported at $69.375 per ounce, with a daily increase of 2.79% [8]. - Spot platinum has also seen significant gains, reaching $2,055.7 per ounce, the first time it has surpassed $2,000 since 2008, with a year-to-date increase of over 127% [8]. Group 3: Market Influences - Citic Securities indicates that the unexpected cooling of the U.S. November CPI has led to an adjustment in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2026, contributing to the strength of precious metals [9]. - Galaxy Futures notes that the Bank of Japan's cautious stance on future monetary policy, combined with unexpectedly mild U.S. inflation data, has reinforced a trend of economic slowdown, leading to a cautious optimism regarding future interest rate cuts [10]. - The overall market sentiment is influenced by abundant liquidity and strong supply constraints, driving commodity prices to challenge historical highs [9].

Group 1: Precious Metals Market Trends - Silver prices surged over 6% today, with platinum and palladium futures also hitting their daily limit, as global markets enter the "Christmas mode" and major financial markets prepare for holiday closures [1][2] - Year-to-date, silver has increased by 137%, while tungsten concentrate prices have risen by 202% [1][4] - The recent week saw silver prices rise by 8.27%, and tungsten powder prices increased by approximately 18% [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Jiexin International Resources (03858.HK) experienced a significant rise, with its stock price increasing over 11% today, marking a threefold increase since its IPO on August 28 [1][4] - The domestic stock market's precious metals sector has outperformed, with gains exceeding 3% and an annual increase of over 80% [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent surge in tungsten prices is attributed to tight supply and structural growth in demand, with prices reaching historical highs [5] - Global tungsten supply is expected to remain tight over the next 3-5 years due to declining ore grades and stricter regulations, which will likely drive prices higher [5][4] - The global tungsten production is projected to increase from 79,500 tons in 2023 to 89,900 tons by 2028, while demand is expected to rise from 96,200 tons to 110,000 tons in the same period, leading to an expanding supply-demand gap [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold and silver prices are rising significantly due to expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2026 and increased geopolitical uncertainty as the holiday season approaches [1] - Silver has outperformed gold, with a price increase of nearly 139% this year, while gold has risen approximately 68% [1] - The chief strategist at Galaxy Securities, Yang Chao, believes that the expectation of interest rate cuts is the main support for precious metal prices, although easing geopolitical tensions have limited the extent of the price increases [1] Group 2 - Citic Construction's chief analyst Wang Jiechao notes that the prices of precious metals like gold, silver, and platinum have surged, alongside strong performance in industrial metals such as tin, copper, and aluminum [2] - The combination of ample liquidity and strong supply constraints is driving commodity prices to challenge their peak levels [2] - The increasing importance of basic raw materials for economic development has led some countries to impose tariffs to secure these products, further exacerbating regional market shortages and pushing prices higher [2]

消息面解读： 周一(12月22日)：国际黄金开盘先行走强，受美联储降息预期增强的提振，以及5日均线的买盘推动；虽然美 元指数早盘低开后直接走强，短期偏向回升反弹，但走势处于200日均线下方，周图及月图仍未展现出趋势性 的反转行情，因而短期走强，对于金价压力有限，方向上则是利好金价。日内无重点关注数据，将延续上周利 好因素，以及周二的美国第三季度实际GDP年化季率初值和美国10月耐用品订单月率等的预期降低，而利好金 价，故此，周初金价偏向反弹走强，操作保持低多看涨即可。 黄金走势分析： 早上开盘，黄金继续上涨，在地缘消息的影响下，再次体现出避险需求，趋势作用明显，本周依旧维持前期的 看法不变，保持多头趋势看涨，但随时注意调整的空间，所以，主思路还是低多，辅助看法是找准高点做空。 目前黄金收盘在4370附近，在相对价位中，目前是绝对的高位，上周高点在4375，历史高点在4385，所以，剧 烈关键点也就差一点点，那么，周初就关注上方高点的得失，关键点位不破，周内肯定有调整空间，调整力度 不大就看震荡，调整力度过大，有可能会在节前有市场抛盘行为，加大了调整的风险，所以，本周黄金目前是 强势，但也要谨慎对待随时的调整空 ...

Group 1: Global Asset Performance - Global major asset performance this week shows bonds outperforming stocks, REITs, and commodities, with the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index rising by 0.005% while the MSCI Global Stock Index fell by 0.05% [2] - The MSCI Global Stock Index decline was primarily driven by the Asia-Pacific markets, with developed markets performing better than emerging markets [3] - In the commodities sector, energy prices weakened across the board, while industrial metals and precious metals saw price increases [4] Group 2: Stock Market Insights - The European stock markets outperformed the US and Japan, with the STOXX 600 Index rising by 1.60% and the FTSE 100 Index increasing by 2.57% [3] - Emerging markets faced declines, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index down by 1.55%, and specific markets like Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dropping by 1.10% [3] - Financial, materials, healthcare, consumer discretionary, and utilities sectors outperformed the global stock index, while information technology, consumer staples, telecommunications, industrials, and energy sectors lagged [3] Group 3: Commodity Price Movements - Brent crude oil futures fell by 1.06% to $60.47 per barrel, while industrial metals like copper and aluminum saw price increases of 3.18% and 2.67%, respectively [4] - Gold prices rose by 0.91% to $4,338.88 per ounce, with silver prices increasing by 8.39% to $67.16 per ounce, reaching a new historical high [4][11] - The US bond market saw a slight decline in yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield down by 3.7 basis points to 4.148% [4] Group 4: Labor Market and Economic Data - The US labor market data indicated a decrease of 105,000 non-farm jobs in October, with November showing an increase of 64,000 jobs, surpassing expectations [6] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, higher than the expected 4.5%, marking a four-year high [6] - The November CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, significantly below the expected 3.1%, indicating easing inflationary pressures [6] Group 5: Currency and Exchange Rate Trends - The US Dollar Index increased by 0.20% to 98.599, while the Japanese Yen depreciated by 1.23% against the dollar [5] - The Chinese Yuan appreciated by 0.1246% against the dollar, with the latest midpoint rate at 7.0550 [5] Group 6: REITs and Real Estate Insights - The global REITs index fell by 0.70%, with performance varying across markets, particularly in the UK, Japan, and Singapore [13] - US REITs reported better-than-expected revenue and profit growth for Q3, particularly in the office sector [13] - The current environment of declining interest rates is favorable for both stock and bond attributes of REITs [13]

Group 1 - Gold prices surged on December 22, with COMEX gold futures exceeding $4,430, marking a daily increase of over 1% and setting a new historical high [1] - Gold-related ETFs saw significant gains, with Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) rising by 1.51% and a year-to-date increase of over 60%, while Gold Stock ETF (159562) increased by 3.45% with a cumulative year-to-date rise of 92.46% [1] - The market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in 2026 has intensified due to weak U.S. employment data and slowing inflation, alongside increasing geopolitical uncertainties [1] Group 2 - ANZ Bank analysts predict that deteriorating global economic growth prospects, escalating trade tensions, and potential damage to the Federal Reserve's independence could lead gold prices to possibly exceed $5,000 per ounce by 2026 [1] - Gold stocks have shown a higher elasticity compared to gold prices, with a beta of approximately 1.07 over the past three years, indicating a "gold price amplifier" effect [1] - The combination of heightened risk aversion and rising expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts is expected to sustain a strong performance in gold stocks [1]

12月22日，贵金属集体大涨，多个品种创新高。现货黄金日内涨超1%，突破4380美元关口，报4383美 元/盎司，再创历史新高。截至11:30，国内现货黄金Au9999涨1.10%，报986.20元/克，冲击四连涨。 消息面上，美国11月CPI同比增速降至2.7%，核心CPI同比增长2.6%，为2021年3月以来最低水平，通胀 压力显著降温增强了市场对美联储实施更宽松货币政策的预期。同时，市场对明年1月降息信心继续下 降，据CME"美联储观察"，美联储2026年1月降息25个基点的概率为21%，较之前有所下降，维持利率 不变的概率为79%。美联储到明年3月累计降息25个基点的概率为47.1%，维持利率不变的概率为 43.4%，累计降息50个基点的概率为9.5%。 看好黄金的投资者可以关注天弘上海金ETF发起式联接基金（A类：014661；C类：014662），其紧密 跟踪金价，买卖便捷，无实物交易损耗，上支付宝、天天基金、京东金融搜索"天弘上海金"即可了解。 风险提示：观点仅供参考，不构成投资建议，市场有风险，投资需谨慎。基金过往业绩不代表未来表 现，基金管理人及基金经理管理的其他基金的业绩并不构成对本基金业 ...

Core Insights - The spot gold price has reached a historic high of $4,407.7 per ounce, with a daily increase of over 1.5% and an annual increase of over 67% [1][3] - Other precious metals have also surged, with platinum rising to $2,056, an increase of over 4% and an annual increase of over 127%, while palladium has seen an annual increase of over 95% [2][3] - Silver prices have also reached new highs, with spot silver exceeding $69 per ounce, marking an annual increase of approximately 139.64% [3] Market Dynamics - The market is experiencing heightened expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2026, alongside increasing geopolitical uncertainties as the holiday season approaches, which supports gold prices [3][4] - The global demand for gold is being driven by a surge in risk aversion, skepticism towards the U.S. dollar credit system, and continued central bank purchases of gold [4] Investment Trends - In November, global physical gold ETF inflows reached $5.2 billion, marking six consecutive months of inflows, with total assets under management rising to $530 billion, a 5.4% increase [4] - The total holdings in gold ETFs have increased by 1% to 3,932 tons, setting new records, and the total inflow for the year is expected to achieve the best annual performance in history [4] Future Outlook - The short-term bullish outlook for gold is expected to remain unchanged, with price targets potentially moving to the range of $4,500 to $5,000 per ounce, and extreme scenarios could see prices surpassing $5,200 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching a historical high of $4,385.7 per ounce, is attributed to a combination of factors including expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical uncertainties, and a weakening dollar, which collectively enhance gold's long-term investment appeal [1]. Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices have recently hit a record high, with a year-to-date increase of 59.11% [1]. - The gold ETF (159934) has seen a net inflow of 180 million yuan over the past 10 trading days, reflecting strong investor interest [1]. - The current price movement is seen as a systemic change in macro pricing frameworks, driven by expectations of monetary easing and central bank gold purchases [1]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Indicators - The U.S. November CPI has decreased to approximately 2.7% year-on-year, while the employment rate has risen to 4.6%, indicating a continued decline in inflation [1]. - Market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have increased, contributing to a weaker dollar index [1]. - The combination of these macroeconomic indicators supports the notion that the Federal Reserve is likely to continue its easing cycle [1]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment - The demand for gold is bolstered by geopolitical risks and a trend of central banks increasing their gold reserves [1]. - The gold ETF (159934) closely tracks SGE gold 9999, with its latest scale growing by 35.56 billion yuan and a total net inflow of 12.754 billion yuan for the year [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant surge in precious metal prices, particularly gold, which has reached a historical high, driven by various economic factors and market sentiments [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Market Performance - As of December 22, the spot gold price hit $4407.7 per ounce, with a daily increase of over 1.5%, marking a year-to-date increase of over 67% [1][3]. - The global physical gold ETF inflows reached $5.2 billion in November, continuing a six-month streak of inflows, with total assets under management rising to $530 billion [4]. Group 2: Other Precious Metals - Platinum prices surged to $2056 per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 127%, while palladium prices also rose significantly, exceeding 95% year-to-date [2][3]. - Silver prices reached above $69 per ounce, achieving a historical high with a year-to-date increase of approximately 139.64% [3]. Group 3: Economic Factors Influencing Prices - The rise in gold prices is attributed to heightened global risk aversion, skepticism towards the U.S. dollar credit system, and ongoing central bank gold purchases [4]. - Market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2026, along with increasing geopolitical uncertainties, are providing additional support for gold prices [3][4].