Core Viewpoint - A "perfect storm" of macro catalysts is forming for precious metals, particularly gold and silver, driven by expected interest rate cuts, a weakening dollar, ETF inflows, and a recovery in physical demand [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Price Predictions - Morgan Stanley predicts the Federal Reserve will announce a 25 basis point rate cut on September 16-17, with another cut expected by year-end, historically leading to a significant increase in gold prices [1][4]. - Historical data shows that gold prices average a 6% increase within 60 days of the Fed starting a rate cut cycle, with some periods seeing increases as high as 14% [4]. - Morgan Stanley sets a target price of $3,800 per ounce for gold by Q4 2025, indicating an approximate 8% upside from the current price of $3,496 per ounce [2]. Group 2: Demand Factors - Despite a weak global demand for gold jewelry in Q2, early signs of recovery are noted, particularly with a significant increase in India's gold imports in July [10]. - Global gold ETFs have seen a net inflow of approximately 440 tons this year, marking a fundamental shift in market sentiment after four years of outflows [11]. - Central banks have purchased 415 tons of gold this year, contributing to a stable long-term support for gold prices [11]. - Demand for physical gold bars and coins increased by 11% year-on-year in Q2, indicating strong interest from individual investors [11]. Group 3: Silver Outlook - Morgan Stanley's target price for silver is set at $40.9 per ounce, with potential for upside despite cautious views due to concerns over solar energy infrastructure in China and improved silver production in Mexico [14]. - Recent data shows a stable growth trajectory in China's solar cell production, increasing by approximately 40% year-on-year, suggesting strong underlying industrial demand for silver [14]. - Mexico's silver production declined by 7% year-on-year in June, which may create upward pressure on silver prices [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The prices of gold and silver are showing strong upward trends. Trump's attempt to dismiss a Federal Reserve governor and challenge the Fed's independence has made the market uneasy. The USGS's proposal to include silver in the 2025 critical minerals list has raised concerns about silver import tariff risks. Powell's dovish stance at the Jackson Hole meeting and the disappointing July non - farm payrolls data have increased the expectation of a September interest rate cut, which is beneficial to precious metals. However, the split within the Fed, the rebound of US inflation data in July, and the easing of geopolitical risks have restricted the upward space of gold to some extent. The overall trade environment has deteriorated, and the long - term drivers of gold still have support. Currently, gold and silver may show a relatively strong trend as the interest rate cut approaches and due to Trump's interference in the Fed's independence, and the market is focusing on this week's non - farm payrolls data [4] Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 801.58 and 803.38 respectively, with price increases of 1.02 and 1.18, and price increase rates of 0.13% and 0.15%. The current prices of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 9836.00 and 9855.00 respectively, with price increases of 61.00 and 57.00, and price increase rates of 0.62% and 0.58% [2] - **Position and Volume**: The positions and trading volumes of沪金2510 are 140,691 and 313,792, and those of沪金2512 are 178,201 and 132,324. The positions and trading volumes of沪银2510 are 294,815 and 884,674, and those of沪银2512 are 322,354 and 301,127 [2] - **Spot Premium**: The spot premiums of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are - 7.10 and - 8.90, and those of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are - 84.00 and - 103.00 [2] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The price of Shanghai Gold T + D is 794.48, with a price increase of 12.78 and a price increase rate of 1.63%. The price of London gold is 797.53, with a price increase of 7.36 and a price increase rate of 0.93%. The price of London silver is 40.67, with a price increase of 0.98 and a price increase rate of 2.48%. The price of Shanghai Silver T + D is 9752.00, with a price increase of 387.00 and a price increase rate of 4.13% [2] - **Price Spreads**: The price spread between沪金2512 and沪金2510 is 1.80 (previous value: 1.64), the price spread between沪银2512 and沪银2510 is 19 (previous value: 23), the gold - to - silver ratio (spot) is 81.47 (previous value: 83.47), the ratio of Shanghai gold to London gold is 7.11 (previous value: 7.05), and the ratio of Shanghai silver to London silver is 7.46 (previous value: 7.34) [2] Inventory - **Changes**: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold increased by 120 kg to 39,744 kg, the inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver increased by 11,231 kg to 1,207,227 kg, the COMEX gold inventory increased by 161,216.26 ounces to 38,925,853 ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory increased by 1,037,585 ounces to 518,232,360 ounces [2] Related Market Indicators - **Changes**: The US dollar index decreased by 0.19% to 97.6793, the S&P index decreased by 0.64% to 6460.26, the US Treasury yield increased by 0.24% to 4.23, the Brent crude oil price increased by 0.01% to 68.16, and the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate increased by 0.02% to 7.1221 [2] Derivatives - **Changes**: The position of the SPDR Gold ETF increased by 1 ton to 44,315 tons, the position of the SLV Silver ETF increased by 1 ton to 44,315 tons, the net position of CFTC speculators in silver increased by 481 to 33,486, and the net position of CFTC speculators in gold decreased by 1451 to 32,895 [2] Macroeconomic News - **US News**: US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that Trump may declare a national housing emergency this fall. The nominee for the Fed governor, Milan, is likely to take office before the September Fed meeting [3] - **European News**: ECB President Lagarde said that the 2% inflation target has been achieved. The acting governor of the Slovenian central bank said that the ECB's "easing cycle has ended". The final value of the euro - zone manufacturing PMI in August rose to a three - year high of 50.7, and the euro - zone unemployment rate in July dropped to 6.2%, tying the historical low set in November 2024 [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market for non-ferrous metals continues to rise, with significant gains in silver and gold stocks [1][2] - Silver and gold prices are strengthening, with spot gold prices surpassing $3,500 per ounce, marking a historical high and a year-to-date increase of over 33% [2][3] - Analysts indicate that macroeconomic and geopolitical factors are favoring precious metals, including India's sale of U.S. government bonds and increased gold reserves, as well as ongoing geopolitical tensions [3] Group 2 - Specific stock performances include: - Baiyin Nonferrous (601212) up 10.08% with a market cap of 31.5 billion and a year-to-date increase of 53.24% - Western Gold (601069) up 10.00% with a market cap of 22 billion and a year-to-date increase of 111.04% - Zhuhai Group (600961) up 8.82% with a market cap of 16.7 billion and a year-to-date increase of 97.46% - Hunan Silver (002716) up 7.59% with a market cap of 18.4 billion and a year-to-date increase of 92.33% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Based on the current personnel changes in the Federal Reserve and the statements of key figures, combined with the overall marginal weakening of the US labor market, the Fed will enter an interest - rate cut cycle that exceeds market expectations. There is a high probability that the Fed will conduct three consecutive 25 - basis - point interest - rate cuts in the next three interest - rate meetings, which will be a significant positive factor for precious metal prices. In the interest - rate cut cycle, silver will outperform gold, causing the gold - silver ratio to decline significantly. The current strategy is to buy silver on dips, with the reference operating range for the main Shanghai Gold futures contract being 794 - 836 yuan/gram and for the main Shanghai Silver futures contract being 9526 - 10500 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold (Au) rose 0.86% to 801.58 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver (Ag) rose 2.46% to 9836.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold rose 0.08% to 3548.80 dollars/ounce, COMEX silver fell 0.22% to 41.64 dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.23%, and the US dollar index was 97.67 [2]. - Various precious metal products such as Au(T + D), London gold, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, etc., showed different price and volume changes. For example, Au(T + D) rose 1.63% to 794.48 yuan/gram, and the London gold rose 1.33% to 3474.90 dollars/ounce [4]. 3.2 Key Figures' Statements - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the Fed should maintain its independence but has made many mistakes. He also mentioned that Director Milan will officially take office before the September interest - rate meeting [2]. 3.3 Market Data Statistics - Gold and silver data statistics include closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, etc., in different markets such as COMEX, LBMA, SHFE, etc., and their daily changes and historical quantiles. For example, the closing price of the active COMEX gold contract rose 1.13% to 3516.10 dollars/ounce, and its trading volume rose 18.74% to 18.01 million lots [6]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are provided to show the relationships between precious metal prices, trading volumes, open interests, and other factors, such as the relationship between COMEX gold prices and the US dollar index, and the relationship between COMEX gold prices and real interest rates [8][11]. - Charts also show the near - far month structure of precious metals, such as COMEX gold, COMEX silver, Shanghai gold, and Shanghai silver, and the price differences between different markets, such as SHFE - COMEX and SGE - LBMA [19][20][30][39]. - Charts present the net long positions of managed funds in COMEX gold and COMEX silver and their relationships with prices, as well as the total holdings of gold and silver ETFs [47][49]. - Charts show the internal - external price differences of gold and silver, including their five - day moving averages and seasonal charts [52][53][55].

Group 1 - The A-share market for non-ferrous metals continues to rise, with significant gains in stocks such as Baiyin Nonferrous, Western Gold, and Zhuhai Group [1] - Gold and silver prices are on the rise, with spot gold prices surpassing $3,500 per ounce, marking a historical high and a year-to-date increase of over 33% [1] - Analysts attribute the positive momentum in precious metals to macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, including India's active selling of U.S. government bonds and increasing gold reserves, as well as the lack of progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks [1] Group 2 - Specific stock performance includes Baiyin Nonferrous up 10.08% with a market cap of 31.5 billion, Western Gold up 10% with a market cap of 22 billion, and Zhuhai Group up 8.82% with a market cap of 16.7 billion [2] - Other notable performers include Hunan Baiyin up 7.59%, Ding Sheng New Materials up 6.68%, and Tianshan Aluminum up 5.01% [2] - The MACD golden cross signal formation indicates a strong upward trend for these stocks [2]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in September is 10.4%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 89.6% [1] - In October, the probability of maintaining rates is 4.9%, with a cumulative 25 basis point cut probability of 47.3% and a 50 basis point cut probability of 47.9% [1] Group 2: European Union Trade Relations - The President of the European Council, Costa, stated that the EU does not welcome tariffs and will defend its sovereignty and the interests of its citizens and businesses [2] - Costa acknowledged that many Europeans feel frustrated with the EU's passive stance in trade with the U.S. and the Ukraine issue [2] - The EU is working to establish stronger global trade and industrial partnerships to enhance predictability and resilience, reducing strategic dependencies [2] Group 3: Military and Geopolitical Tensions - German Defense Minister Pistorius refuted EU Commission President von der Leyen's claims about deploying European troops to Ukraine, stating she lacks the authority to discuss such matters [3] - The German government has remained largely silent on discussions regarding sending peacekeeping troops to Ukraine, deeming it "premature" [3] - Venezuelan President Maduro claimed that Venezuela faces the greatest threat in a century from U.S. military presence, with significant naval deployments in the Caribbean [4] Group 4: Precious Metals Market - Gold and silver futures prices reached historical highs, with COMEX gold peaking at $3,557.1 per ounce and silver at $41.64 per ounce [5] - The surge in precious metals prices is driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and heightened risk aversion in the market [5][6] - Silver's performance is bolstered by strong industrial demand and a persistent supply deficit, particularly in solar energy and electronics [6][8] Group 5: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - The core PCE index in the U.S. has shown a continuous rise, and the second-quarter GDP was revised up to 3.3%, indicating persistent inflation risks [7] - The demand for gold remains strong despite increased mining supply, while central banks continue to maintain a steady net purchase of gold [8] - The outlook for precious metals prices remains bullish, with potential further increases if U.S. economic data shows a moderate decline and the Fed proceeds with rate cuts [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold and silver, as precious metals, are popular choices for investors due to their value preservation and investment appreciation, making it essential to choose a reliable trading platform for investment [1] Group 2 - The company, Jinrong China, has been operating under strict regulations from the Hong Kong financial market since its establishment in 2010, obtaining the highest level AA class trading license from the Hong Kong Gold Exchange [2][3] - Jinrong China provides unique transaction codes issued by the Hong Kong Gold Exchange for each trade, allowing investors to verify transaction details and protect their investment rights [2] Group 3 - Jinrong China emphasizes a robust risk control system to ensure the safety of customer transactions, implementing strict identity verification and secure fund management practices [5] - The company stores customer data in an encrypted database and restricts access to sensitive information through confidentiality agreements [5] Group 4 - Jinrong China prioritizes customer service, offering professional support and utilizing advanced trading platforms like MT4 and MT5 to enhance the trading experience [7] - The company has received accolades such as "Best Customer Support Award" and "Best Trading Experience Award" from international evaluation agencies, reflecting its commitment to customer satisfaction [7] - Jinrong China aims to continuously optimize its service system to maximize investment returns for its clients [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed Chair Powell's indication of a potential September rate cut due to weakening employment supply - demand, combined with Trump's continuous pressure and possible replacement of Fed officials, along with global central banks' continuous gold purchases, may make precious metal prices more likely to rise than fall. It is recommended that investors mainly build long positions when prices decline, with specific support and pressure levels provided for different precious metals [1]. 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs Gold - **Market Data**: Shanghai gold's closing price was 777.62 yuan/g, with a daily change of 0.79 yuan and a weekly change of 5.96 yuan. COMEX futures active contract's closing price was 3358.90 dollars/ounce, with a daily change of 92.90 dollars and a weekly change of 8.60 dollars. London gold spot price was 3376.35 dollars/ounce, with a daily change of 9.25 dollars and a weekly change of 41.90 dollars [1]. - **Important Information**: The US Treasury Secretary said he never heard Fed Governor Cook deny the accusations. Trump's economic advisor pressured Cook to take leave during the lawsuit. The New York Fed President Williams said every meeting is a potentially actionable meeting, emphasizing the Fed's independence [1]. Silver - **Market Data**: Shanghai silver's closing price was 9261.00 yuan/ten - grams, with a daily change of 117.00 yuan and a weekly change of - 50.00 yuan. COMEX futures active contract's closing price was 38.69 dollars/ounce, with a daily change of 1.36 dollars and a weekly change of - 0.01 dollars [1]. - **Important Information**: Import tariffs pushed up US production - side and consumer - side inflation in July. Powell's remarks due to weak employment supply - demand increased the expectation of a September rate cut, but the US August non - farm payrolls and CPI data on September 6th and 11th need to be monitored [1]. Global Central Bank Policies - **European Central Bank**: Paused rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 2%. Due to better - than - expected August manufacturing PMI, it may cut rates at most once by the end of 2025 [1]. - **Bank of England**: Cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August, continued to reduce government bond holdings, and may slow down the balance - sheet reduction. It may cut rates at most once by the end of 2025 [1]. - **Bank of Japan**: Kept the benchmark rate at 0.5% in July, will start reducing quarterly government bond purchases from 4000 billion to 2000 billion yen in April 2026. There is still an expectation of a rate hike by the end of 2025, possibly as early as October [1]. Price Ratios and Other Commodities - **Price Ratios**: The ratio of Shanghai gold to Shanghai silver was 83.95, with a daily change of 0.44 and a weekly change of - 0.65. The ratio of London gold to London silver was 88.35, with a daily change of 0.71 and a weekly change of 0.76 [1]. - **Other Commodities**: INE crude oil was 479.70 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent oil was 67.20 dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was 63.86 dollars/barrel [1]. Stock Indices and Exchange Rates - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3,800.3499, the S&P 500 was 6,411.3700, the UK FTSE 100 was 9,255.5000, etc [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 98.2375, the US dollar - to - RMB central parity rate was 7.1287, and the euro - to - RMB central parity rate was 8.2924 [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core View The Fed Chairman Powell signaled a potential September rate cut due to weakening employment supply - demand. Coupled with Trump's continuous pressure to replace Fed officials and global central banks' continuous gold purchases, precious metal prices are likely to rise and fall less easily. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions when prices decline [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Data**: Shanghai gold futures' closing price was 781.16 yuan/g on August 28, 2025, up 0.04 yuan from the previous day and 6.04 yuan from last week. Trading volume was 135,834, and open interest was 166,596. The basis (spot - futures) was - 3.54 yuan [1]. - **Important Information**: The US Treasury Secretary said he never heard Fed Governor Cook deny the accusations. Trump's economic advisor pressured Cook to take leave during the lawsuit. New York Fed President Williams said every meeting is a substantial meeting for possible action [1]. Silver - **Market Data**: Shanghai silver futures' closing price was 9,305 yuan/10g on August 28, 2025, down 49 yuan from the previous day. Trading volume was 268,955, and open interest was 280,655. The basis (spot - futures) was - 44 yuan [1]. - **Important Information**: Import tariffs pushed up US production - end inflation (PPI) and consumer - end inflation (core CPI) in July. Fed Chairman Powell mentioned a possible policy adjustment due to weak employment supply - demand, increasing the expectation of a September rate cut [1]. Global Central Bank Policies - **European Central Bank**: It paused rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 2%. Eurozone (Germany) July CPI annual rate was 2% (1.8%), and the ECB may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1]. - **Bank of England**: It cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August. It may slow down the balance - sheet reduction. Given the economic data, it may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1]. - **Bank of Japan**: It kept the benchmark rate at 0.5% in July and will reduce quarterly bond purchases from 400 billion to 200 billion yen in April 2026. There is an expectation of a rate hike before the end of 2025, possibly as early as October [1]. Other Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil was 479.70 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent oil was 67.20 US dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was 63.86 US dollars/barrel [1]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3,800.35, the S&P 500 was 6,411.37, and the UK FTSE 100 was 9,255.50 [1].

大宗商品研究所 贵金属研发报告 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 贵金属衍生品日报 2025 年 8 月 27 日 研究所副所长：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询号：Z0017510 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询号：Z0021675 联系方式： 邮箱： wangluchen_qh@chinastock.co m.cn 贵金属衍生品日报 【市场回顾】 1.贵金属市场:今天白天，伦敦金小幅回吐昨日部分涨幅，当前交投于 3380 美 元附近，伦敦银相对更加疲软，当前交投于 38.4 美元附近。受外盘驱动，沪金主 力合约收涨 0.12%报 781.16 元/克，沪银主力合约收跌 0.52%，报 9305 元/千 克。 2.美元指数:美元指数有所反弹，当前交投于 98.6 附近。 3.美债收益率:10 年美债收益率窄幅波动，当前交投于 4.265%附近。 4.人民币汇率:人民币兑美元汇率小幅走弱，当前交投于 7.162 附近。 【重要资讯】 1.美联储风波：①外媒 26 日讯：特朗普政府正在权衡影响地方联储的方案， 并加强对地方联储主 ...