Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Bullish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Bullish [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Sideways [2] - Glass: Sideways [2] - Soda ash: Rebound [2] - CSI 50 Index Futures/Options: Sideways [2][4] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Sideways [2][4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Sideways [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Downward [4] - 2-year Treasury Bond Futures: Sideways [4] - 5-year Treasury Bond Futures: Sideways [4] - 10-year Treasury Bond Futures: Rebound [4] - Gold: High-level sideways [4] - Silver: High-level sideways [4] - Logs: Range-bound [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Bearish [6] - Soybean oil: Wide-range sideways [6] - Palm oil: Wide-range sideways [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide-range sideways [6] - Soybean meal: Bearish with sideways bias [6][7] - Soybean No. 2: Bearish with sideways bias [7] - Soybean No. 1: Bearish with sideways bias [7] - Live pigs: Bullish with sideways bias [7] - Rubber: Sideways [9] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Sideways [9] - MEG: Wait-and-see [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Sideways [9] Core Viewpoints - The Fed's interest rate cut has landed as expected, and after the National Day, trading focus will gradually shift to reality. The iron ore market is supported by increased global shipments and rising demand, while the coal and coke market rebounds due to production cuts and positive expectations. The rebar market faces high supply and low demand, with prices likely to fluctuate. The glass market is driven by fuel prices and macro sentiment, but the supply-demand contradiction remains. The financial market is affected by Sino-US relations and economic data, with stock index futures showing mixed trends and treasury bonds trending weakly [2][4]. - The precious metals market is influenced by central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks, with gold and silver prices expected to remain high and volatile. The forest products market shows different trends, with logs expected to range-bound, pulp to bottom consolidate, and offset paper to be bearish. The oil and fat market is affected by production, inventory, and demand, with prices likely to fluctuate widely. The agricultural products market shows mixed trends, with live pigs expected to be bullish with sideways bias and soybeans and related products to be bearish with sideways bias. The soft commodities market shows different trends, with rubber expected to be sideways and polyester products to show mixed trends [4][6][7][9]. Summary by Industry Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: Global iron ore shipments increased to 35.731 million tons, with Australian and Brazilian shipments rising to 29.778 million tons. Demand rebounded as daily pig iron production remained high, and steel mills had pre-holiday restocking expectations. The iron ore 2601 contract broke through the previous high, showing a strong trend [2]. - Coking coal and coke: Production cuts at coal mines and increased "anti-involution" expectations drove the double-coke futures to rebound. Supply is likely to be weaker than last year, and demand increased as daily pig iron production remained high. The market is expected to be bullish with sideways bias [2]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Supply remained high while demand was weak, and inventory pressure increased. The market is expected to be sideways, with the rebar 2601 contract likely to fluctuate strongly in the short term [2]. Non-ferrous Metals - Glass: The glass futures were driven by rising fuel prices and improved macro sentiment. The supply-demand contradiction remained, but inventory reduction provided some confidence. The key for the 01 contract lies in the cold repair path [2]. - Soda ash: The real estate industry is in an adjustment period, and the decline in housing completion area is significant. Attention should be paid to the improvement of real demand [2]. Financial Futures - Stock index futures: The market showed mixed trends, with the CSI 1000 Index Futures trending downward. Sino-US relations and economic data affected the market, and it is recommended to control risk appetite and reduce long positions in stock index futures [2][4]. - Treasury bond futures: The yield of the 10-year treasury bond increased, and the market trended weakly. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bond futures lightly [4]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver: Gold prices are influenced by central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks. The current upward trend logic remains, and prices are expected to remain high and volatile [4]. Forest Products - Logs: Port shipments increased slightly, and September arrivals are expected to be low. Inventory increased to around 3 million cubic meters. Spot prices were stable, and the market is expected to range-bound [6]. - Pulp: Spot prices were stable, and cost support increased. However, the paper industry's profitability was low, and demand was weak. Prices are expected to bottom consolidate [6]. - Offset paper: Production was stable, but it was in the downstream seasonal off-season, and demand was weak. The industry has overcapacity, and the market is expected to be bearish [6]. Oil and Fats - Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil: Palm oil production increased in August, and inventory rose. Domestic soybean oil inventory was high, but future imports are expected to decrease seasonally. The market is expected to fluctuate widely [6]. Agricultural Products - Soybean meal, soybean No. 2, and soybean No. 1: US soybean production increased, and domestic supply was abundant. Demand was weak, and prices are expected to be bearish with sideways bias [6][7]. - Live pigs: The average transaction weight increased, and slaughterhouse开工率 increased slightly. Supply is expected to increase, and prices may face some pressure [7]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply pressure decreased in Yunnan, and production increased in Hainan. Demand improved as tire factory capacity utilization increased. Inventory continued to decline, and prices are expected to be sideways [9]. - Polyester products: PX prices followed oil prices, and PTA supply and demand both increased. MEG supply pressure increased, and PR and PF prices are expected to fluctuate [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold is expected to maintain a strong performance due to the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, which lower the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [1] - The current geopolitical situation and economic policy uncertainties are likely to support the upward trend in gold prices [1] - The decline of the US dollar index by nearly 10% since the beginning of the year, coupled with weak US economic growth, may continue to exert downward pressure on the dollar, further supporting gold [1] Group 2 - The global liquidity easing environment and geopolitical uncertainties are providing additional support for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - Long-term perspectives indicate that a weakening US economy and the ongoing "de-dollarization" of the global monetary system will continue to support gold prices [1] - Investors are encouraged to consider opportunities in gold ETFs, specifically the gold fund ETF (518800) and gold stock ETF (517400), and to look for buying opportunities during short-term price adjustments [1]

Group 1 - The U.S.-led global payment system is evolving into an "invisible financial weapon," forcing countries to choose sides in a new economic confrontation [3][5] - The rapid disconnection of Visa and MasterCard from Russia during the Ukraine conflict highlighted the potential for the U.S. to use financial infrastructure as a geopolitical tool [5][6] - Countries are increasingly aware of the risks associated with reliance on U.S. payment platforms, prompting a search for alternative payment solutions [8][9] Group 2 - Europe is leading the charge to develop an independent pan-European payment standard to ensure regional trade is not subject to external interference [8][9] - Asian countries are innovating in financial technology, utilizing blockchain and digital currencies to create efficient cross-border payment solutions, such as India's UPI international version [8][9] - A global restructuring of payment sovereignty is underway, with nations striving to build a more diverse and balanced international payment ecosystem [9] Group 3 - The F-35 fighter jet exemplifies the risks of dependency on U.S. technology, as its operational control remains largely with American companies, raising concerns about potential supply chain disruptions [10] - Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve has undermined the perceived independence of the U.S. central bank, leading to a global shift towards "de-dollarization" as countries seek to enhance their financial autonomy [11][14] - In response to U.S. control in financial, military, and monetary policies, countries are actively working to diminish U.S. dominance through technological innovation and cooperation [14]

2025年09月22日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：贵金属价格反弹，美国再次面临政府关门窘境。 基本面：中美元首通电话，特朗普称，通话"非常富有成效"，将与中国领导人在 APEC 会议期间会晤；特朗 普签署公告，H-1B 签证申请收费提高至 10 万美元；出创收新招金卡签证；美参议院否决两党各自短期支出 议案，美国政府面临。国内黄金 ETF 资金继续流入，COMEX 黄金库存 1227 吨，增加 6 吨；上期所黄金库 存 57 吨，增加 0.9 吨；伦敦 8 月黄金库存 8830 吨；上期所白银库存 1159 吨，减少 44 吨，金交所白银库存 上周库存 1252 吨，增加 4 吨，COMEX 白银库存 16298 吨，减少 1 吨；伦敦 8 月白银库存增加 447 吨至 24643 吨；印度 7 月白银进口约 340 吨左右；全球最大黄金 ETF-SPDR 持有量 994 吨，维持不变；白银 etf--iShares 持有量为 15205 吨，维持不变。 交易策略：去美元化逻辑未变，美联储如期降息，但展望存在矛盾，价格处于历史高位，短期存在高位震荡， 中期依旧 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a bullish trend driven by global demand, geopolitical risks, and central bank strategies, with potential for prices to rise significantly by year-end [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold is currently trading around $3,690 per ounce, showing a slight increase of 0.13% [1]. - In India, gold premiums have reached a 10-month high, indicating strong demand despite record prices [2]. - In contrast, China's gold prices are at a five-year discount, highlighting a divergence in market demand [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical tensions in regions such as Ukraine, Poland, and the Middle East are providing strong support for the gold market [3]. - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions may further escalate, adding to market uncertainty and driving gold prices higher [3]. Group 3: Central Bank Actions - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves as part of a de-dollarization strategy, contributing to a 43% surge in ETF holdings [2]. - This trend is expected to continue, reinforcing the bullish outlook for gold prices [2]. Group 4: Price Trends and Projections - Recent market movements show a reversal pattern, with gold prices recovering after a dip influenced by interest rate announcements [4]. - The price has risen approximately 200 points since breaking the $3,500 level, with a key resistance level around $3,705 [4]. - If uncertainties persist, gold prices could potentially reach $3,960 or even surpass $4,000 by year-end [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the upward trend of gold stocks in the Hong Kong market, with notable gains from companies such as Zhaojin Mining and Lingbao Gold [1] - Zhaojin Mining led the sector with a 4.4% increase, while Lingbao Gold and China Silver Group both rose by 4% [1] - The current price of spot gold increased by 0.1%, reaching $3687.84 per ounce, amid a cautious market awaiting further clues on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities reported that the Federal Reserve's September FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut, with expectations of an additional 50 basis points cut by year-end [1] - The long-term value of gold remains intact due to ongoing rate cuts by the Fed in the context of economic adjustments and persistent inflation concerns [1] - Global central banks and institutional investors are increasingly allocating more to gold, driven by de-dollarization trends, geopolitical risks, and the need for diversified investment portfolios [1]

近期，美国财政部公开了7月的数据， 中国单月减持美债257亿美元，总持仓跌到7307亿美元，创下16年来的新低！算下来，这一个月就 抛了超1829亿人民币的美债。 与此同时，中国央行却在疯狂买黄金，已经连续10个月增持。一边是抛售美元资产，一边是狂囤黄金，中国外汇储备到底在搞什么？这 背后，不仅是资产配置的"乾坤大挪移"，更是一场静悄悄的全球金融格局变革。 一、从"抱美元大腿"到"主动减仓"，中国为什么突然不买美债了？ 过去几十年，中国外汇储备里一大半都是美元资产，尤其是美国国债。为啥？因为当时美元是全球最硬的"硬通货"，美债被看作"无风险 资产"，买了就能稳稳收利息。但现在不一样了——美国国债规模已经突破34万亿美元，相当于每个美国人欠10万美元，债务利息比军费 还高，根本还不清。更要命的是，美联储一会儿加息、一会儿降息，美债价格坐"过山车"，去年就有不少国家因为美债暴跌亏了钱。 中国减持美债，说白了就是"不想把鸡蛋放一个篮子里"。以前外汇储备管理更像"被动保值"，现在转向"主动管理"：既要安全，又要灵 活，还得抗风险。比如，除了减持美债，中国可能还在增加欧元、日元资产，甚至投资其他国家的优质债券。这种"多 ...

静悄悄的变盘，往往比喧闹更有力量。 今年以来，中国外汇储备配置出现肉眼可见的"换挡"：一边下调美元债权重，一边把黄金推向"压舱 石"位置。 美元与黄金的那杆秤，正从金融逻辑、到安全逻辑，一起发生倾斜。 中国对美债的态度，已经从"躺着拿票息"，转为"看性价比灵活调"。 最新月份数据显示，中国持仓下行到全球金融危机以来低位，这不只是市场波动，而是结构性取舍。 单一资产的波动越来越 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a significant increase in gold ETF investments driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, geopolitical uncertainties, and central bank gold purchases, emphasizing the long-term value of gold as an investment asset [1][10]. Group 1: Gold Price and ETF Performance - Shanghai gold reached a new high of 838.42 yuan per gram, with domestic gold ETF total assets reaching 155.67 billion yuan, a 120% increase from the end of last year [1][2]. - The performance of gold ETFs is closely linked to gold price movements, with COMEX gold prices rising over 10% in the past month, reaching 3,719.4 USD per ounce [2][3]. - Several gold ETFs, including the Yongying CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock ETF and Huaxia CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock ETF, saw net asset value increases exceeding 15% in the last month [2][3]. Group 2: Factors Supporting Gold Prices - Weak U.S. economic data and expectations of interest rate cuts have made gold more attractive, with investors seeking to hedge against currency depreciation [3][4]. - The trend of de-dollarization and increased gold purchases by central banks, particularly in emerging markets, has provided strong support for gold prices [4][7]. - Strong performance in gold mining stocks, driven by rising gold prices and increased production, has attracted more capital into the gold market [4][5]. Group 3: Fund Flows in Gold ETFs - Since September, gold ETFs have seen a reversal from the net outflows experienced in August, with a total inflow of 4.774 billion yuan as of September 19 [5][6]. - The Yongying CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock ETF had the largest net subscription, totaling 2.548 billion shares, followed by Huaxia and Huazhong ETFs [5][6]. - The overall fund flow in gold ETFs has been complex, influenced by market conditions, economic data, and policy expectations, with significant inflows observed earlier in the year [5][6]. Group 4: Global Gold ETF Holdings - Since 2025, the holdings of six major global gold ETFs have increased by 203.28 tons, with significant contributions from SPDR and iShares [7][10]. - The increase in gold ETF holdings reflects investor confidence in gold as a safe-haven asset amid ongoing geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties [7][10].

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