日本央行一致通过政策决议。日本央行表示，预计实际利率将维持在显著低位。若经济和物价走势与预 测一致，并随着经济和物价改善，将继续上调政策利率。经济已温和复苏，尽管仍存在一些疲软迹象。 将从可持续、稳定实现2%通胀目标的角度出发，适时实施货币政策。工资和通胀很可能继续温和同步 上升。劳动力市场状况持续紧张，企业利润总体上仍处于高位。日本经济增长很可能较为温和。实现基 准情景的可能性一直在上升。即使在加息之后，实际利率仍处于深度负值区间。鉴于劳资双方在春季工 资谈判中考虑了相关因素，企业明年极有可能继续稳步加薪。即使在利率变动后，货币环境依然宽松， 支持经济。 ...

新华社东京12月19日电（记者刘春燕）据《日本经济新闻》网站报道，日本央行19日在货币政策会议上 通过决议，决定加息25个基点，将政策利率从0.5%上调至0.75%水平，日本政策利率由此达到30年来的 最高水平。 ...

据《日本经济新闻》网站报道，日本央行19日在货币政策会议上通过决议，决定加息25个基点，将政策 利率从0.5%上调至0.75%水平，日本政策利率由此达到30年来的最高水平。 （文章来源：新华社） ...

迄今为止，美国总统特朗普已经面试了三位候选人，以期在明年5月接替美联储主席鲍威尔。这三位候 选人都有意降低利率，但在货币政策的其他方面存在分歧，且背景各不相同。 沃什是前美联储理事，与特朗普圈子关系密切；白宫经济顾问哈塞特历经两届共和党政府考验，是特朗 普的坚定支持者；而美联储理事沃勒则是一位颇具影响力的人物，正引导美联储走向低利率和更为保守 的运作模式。 他们的共识很明确：除了认同利率应该更低（这正合特朗普对美联储的主要抱怨）之外，他们还认为人 工智能可以提高经济生产力，在不推高通胀的情况下实现更快的增长。 但从他们近期的公开言论细节来看，分歧依然存在，尤其是在利率下降的速度或幅度、美联储资产负债 表的管理方式，以及央行应当如何运作等问题上。 以下是三位候选人的简要画像，以及他们在竞逐这一职位时发表的关键言论： 对于资产负债表，哈塞特尚未详细谈论美联储的资产负债表政策，但特朗普政府的关键人物，尤其是财 政部长贝森特指出，美联储的资产持有量是其越权的证据，他对此表示呼吁，指出需要对"整个机构进 行诚实、独立和无党派的审查"。 关于美联储文化，贝森特曾在采访中指责美联储存在党派偏见，研究重点偏离核心问题，并认为 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank restarted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation after nearly three months, with a 5bp reduction in the 14 - day reverse repurchase rate. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to promote stable economic growth and a reasonable recovery of prices [4][5] - In the short term, domestic stock indices are expected to continue a weak operation due to factors such as the decline in market risk appetite at the end of the year, poor economic data in November, and limited policy signals from recent meetings. However, the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of stock indices next year, providing a layout window [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Interest Rate Market - **Yield Changes**: DROO1 closed at 1.27 with a - 0.14bp change, DR007 at 1.44 with a - 0.31bp change, GC001 at 1.22 with a - 39.50bp change, GC007 at 1.51 with a - 4.00bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.60 with a 0.20bp change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury bond at 1.37 with a - 0.73bp change, 5 - year treasury bond at 1.61 with a - 0.66bp change, 10 - year treasury bond at 1.83 with a - 0.29bp change, and 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.16 with a 1.00bp change [4] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 88.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an operating rate of 1.40% and 100 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. With 118.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net investment on the day was 69.7 billion yuan. This week, 668.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, and on Monday, 400 billion yuan of 182 - day repurchase - style reverse repurchases and 80 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits will mature [4][5] Stock Index Market - **Index Changes**: The CSI 300 closed at 4553, down 0.59%; the SSE 50 closed at 2999, up 0.23%; the CSI 500 closed at 7101, down 0.52%; the CSI 1000 closed at 7272, down 0.22%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.6555 trillion yuan, a decrease of 155.7 billion yuan from the previous day. Industry sectors showed more gains than losses, with sectors such as pharmaceutical business, aerospace, chemical fiber, department stores, banks, household appliances, and medical services leading the gains, while sectors such as batteries, power equipment, electronic chemicals, energy metals, and glass fiber showing the largest losses [6] - **Futures Contracts**: In terms of futures contracts, IF当月 closed at 4550, down 0.6%; IH当月 closed at 2995, up 0.3%; IC当月 closed at 7101, down 0.6%; IM当月 closed at 7275, down 0.3%. The trading volume and positions of various futures contracts generally decreased [6] - **Premium and Discount Situation**: The IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts showed different premium and discount rates in different contract periods [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various financial and commodity markets, including futures, stocks, bonds, and commodities. It assesses market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements for each sector, offering trading strategies based on the analysis [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory [Daily精选] - Tin: Fundamentals remain strong, with tight tin ore supply and stable demand in some sectors. Prices are expected to remain strong, suggesting a long - position strategy [2]. - LLDPE: Linear in North China is near the risk - free basis. Supply is increasing, and downstream demand has reached its peak. Attention should be paid to the replenishment of the industrial chain [3]. - Coking Coal: The futures rebounded, with spot prices fluctuating. Supply may decrease at the end of the year, and demand is weak. A short - term long - position strategy for the 2605 contract is recommended [4]. - Oils and Fats: The decline of vegetable oils has slowed due to rising crude oil prices. Palm oil export is weak, while soybean oil may be boosted by crude oil, and rapeseed oil may find support in a certain price range [5]. - Platinum and Palladium: Fundamentals are strong, and prices are expected to rise in the medium - to - long term. In the short term, there may be a correction, and a buy - on - dip strategy is recommended [7]. [Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures] - The stock market showed a defensive style, with the dividend sector rising. The four major stock index futures contracts declined. The market lacks an upward driving force, and a cautious waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended [9][10][11]. [Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures - Bond Futures] - Bond futures closed mostly higher. The central bank's operations have made the capital market loose. There are both positive factors and profit - taking demands. A short - term shock - based strategy is recommended [12][13]. [Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals] - Precious metals rose and then fell. US inflation slowed down, and European monetary policies diverged. Gold is recommended to hold long positions, silver to wait and see, and platinum and palladium to buy on dips [14][17][18]. [Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line)] - The SCFIS European line index showed a mixed trend. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [19]. [Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper] - Copper prices are oscillating. The probability of interest rate cuts has slightly increased, and inventories are accumulating. A short - term waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended [20][24]. - Alumina: The spot price is falling, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. A short - term long - position strategy for bargain - hunting is recommended [25][27]. - Aluminum: The CPI data has strengthened the interest - rate cut logic. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and a long - position strategy for bargain - hunting is recommended [27][30]. - Aluminum Alloy: The social inventory is slowly decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level, and an arbitrage strategy of going long on AD03 and short on AL03 is recommended [33][34]. - Zinc: The zinc price is oscillating. The supply is gradually tightening, and the demand is stable. A short - term waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended, and a cross - market reverse arbitrage position should be held [34][37]. - Tin: The fundamentals are strong, and the price is expected to remain strong. A long - position strategy is recommended [38][41]. - Nickel: The low valuation and news have driven the price to rebound. The price is expected to oscillate and repair, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 114,000 - 118,000 [41][44]. - Stainless Steel: The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 [45][47]. - Lithium Carbonate: The market is in a wide - range oscillation. The supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory is decreasing slowly. A short - term wide - range oscillation strategy is recommended [49][52]. - Polysilicon: The futures price has fallen due to the expected increase in warehouse receipts. A waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended [53]. - Industrial Silicon: The price is oscillating and rising. The supply and demand are weak, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts [54][55]. [Commodity Futures - Ferrous Metals - Steel] - Steel prices are oscillating within a range. The cost is stable, the supply is decreasing, and the demand is weak. A waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended [56][57]. - Iron Ore: The futures price rebounded. The supply is increasing, the demand is decreasing, and the inventory is accumulating. A long - position strategy for the 2605 contract and a 1 - 5 positive arbitrage strategy are recommended [58][60]. - Coking Coal: The futures price rebounded. The supply may decrease at the end of the year, and the demand is weak. A short - term long - position strategy for the 2605 contract is recommended [61][64]. - Coke: The futures price rebounded. The second - round price cut has been implemented, and the supply and demand are weak. A short - term long - position strategy for the 2605 contract is recommended [65][66]. [Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products - Meal] - The spot price of soybean meal is falling, and the supply pressure is still there. The price of rapeseed meal is stable, and the demand is weak. A waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended [67][69]. - Live Pigs: The supply pressure is limited, and the price is oscillating. Attention should be paid to the development of the epidemic [70][72]. - Corn: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is oscillating downward. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. A waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended [73][74]. - Sugar: The international sugar price is bearish, and the domestic sugar price is oscillating weakly. A bearish strategy is recommended [76][77]. - Cotton: The US cotton price is oscillating at the bottom, and the domestic cotton price rise has slowed down. Attention should be paid to the resistance level [77][78]. - Eggs: The egg price is mostly stable, and the supply is still abundant. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [80][81]. - Oils and Fats: The decline of vegetable oils has slowed due to rising crude oil prices. Different oils have different trends, and attention should be paid to support levels [82][85]. - Red Dates: The downward trend has slowed, and the price is oscillating at a low level. Attention should be paid to consumption and inventory [86]. - Apples: The price is oscillating downward. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. A long - position liquidation strategy is recommended [87]. [Commodity Futures - Energy Chemicals - PX] - PX prices are rising. The short - term upward driving force is limited, and the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight. A rolling long - position strategy is recommended [88][89]. - PTA: The supply - demand is expected to be tight in December and loose in the first quarter. A rolling long - position strategy and a 5 - 9 positive arbitrage strategy are recommended [90][91]. - Short - Fiber: The supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the price follows the raw materials. A strategy similar to PTA and a short - position strategy for high processing fees are recommended [92][93]. - Bottle Chip: The inventory is decreasing, and the processing fee is supported. Attention should be paid to device restarts and new device production [94][95]. - Ethylene Glycol: The domestic supply is shrinking, but the long - term supply - demand is weak. A short - term low - level oscillation is expected, and an option - selling strategy is recommended [96]. - Pure Benzene: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price driving force is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the range of 5300 - 5600 [97][98]. - Styrene: The supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the price driving force is limited. A short - term weak - oscillation strategy is recommended [99][100]. - LLDPE: The North China basis is near the risk - free level. The supply is increasing, and the demand has reached its peak. A waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended [101]. - PP: The supply and demand are both increasing, and the inventory is slightly accumulating. Attention should be paid to the profit of PDH [102]. - Methanol: The spot and basis are both strengthening. The overseas supply is decreasing, and the domestic supply and demand are increasing. A strategy of paying attention to the narrowing of MTO05 is recommended [102][103]. - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand pressure remains, and the inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to be weak [103][105]. - PVC: The price has rebounded due to news. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. A short - position strategy on rebounds is recommended [106]. - Soda Ash: The production is high, and the supply is excessive. A short - position strategy on rebounds is recommended [107][109]. - Glass: The spot price has stopped falling, and there is no continuous upward driving force. A waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended [107][109]. - Natural Rubber: The price is oscillating within a range. The supply and demand are in a stalemate [109][111]. - Synthetic Rubber: The cost has fallen, and the price is oscillating. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 11,200 [111][114].

日本股市可能上涨，追随华尔街隔夜的涨势，隔夜美股上涨是受11月份美国通胀数据低于预期的提振。 新加坡交易所的日经指数 期货上涨205点，报49,350点。然而，在日本央行定于今日公布货币政策决定 之前，国内股市的涨幅可能受到抑制，市场普遍预计该央行届时将上调政策利率。市场焦点可能在于日 本央行行长植田和男会后的媒体发布会，以寻找有关进一步加息的任何线索。 日经指数周四收盘下跌 1.0%，报49,001.50点。 ...

英国央行以微弱多数票通过降息决定，在经济数据疲软与通胀压力持续的双重考验下，货币政策委员会 内部分歧加剧。 周四，英国央行宣布降息25个基点，将政策利率降至3.75%，为2023年2月以来最低水平，符合预期。 这是英国央行会自8月以来首次降息，此前两次会议均维持利率不变。 值得注意的是，5-4的投票结果凸显出政策制定者对未来路径的不确定性。央行行长贝利立场转变，站 在了委员会中较鸽派成员一边，而四位政策制定者则认为11月份3.2%的通胀率仍远高于央行2%的目 标。 另外，该行的前瞻指引也更为谨慎。央行表示，进一步宽松的程度将取决于通胀前景的演变，并强 调"围绕进一步宽松的判断将变得更加艰难"。目前，交易员缩减对英国央行降息的押注，预计明年降息 39个基点。 英国央行降息后，英国国债涨幅回吐，10年期国债收益率上升1个基点至4.48%。英国富时100指数亦回 吐涨幅，走势趋于平稳。 英国央行内部分歧加剧 市场此前普遍预期此次降息。当前英国经济数据低迷，劳动力市场走软，通胀下降速度超出预期，为降 息决定提供了支撑。 会议纪要显示，贝利行长此次投票立场的转变成为本次降息决策的关键因素。 最近数据显示，英国经济增长、 ...

【12月18日交易员称新一年货币波动性将继续减弱】交易员透露，新一年货币波动性会持续减弱，主要 央行政策路径在可预见未来已明朗。衡量十国集团货币一个月波动性的指标本周降至5.81%，为2022年 以来最低。英镑、欧元一个月波动率分别降至2014年、2024年7月以来最低。 MacroHive外汇策略师指 出，全球影响货币走势因素趋同，表明市场预期"近期风险小"。美联储准备明年进一步降息，英国央行 或效仿。瑞典、挪威和瑞士央行预计长时间维持利率不变。 日本央行可能是采取紧缩货币政策的少数 例外，欧洲央行或加入。 和讯财经 和而不同 迅达天下 扫码查看原文 货币市场:2024年未波动降至多年低 位,明年或延续趋稳 【12月18日交易员称新一年货币波动性将继续减 弱】 交易员透露,新一年货币波动性会持续减弱, 主要央行政策路径在可预见未来已明朗。衡量十国 集团货币一个月波动性的指标本周降至5.81%,为 2022年以来最低。英镑、欧元一个月波动率分别降 至2014年、2024年7月以来最低。MacroHive外汇 策略师指出,全球影响货币走势因素趋同,表明市 场预期"近期风险小"。美联储准备明年进一步降 息,英国央 ...

专家表示，人民银行重启14天期逆回购操作，可以看出其意在通过适度的流动性注入，平衡流动性供需 和稳定市场预期，保持年末资金面的平稳。 12月18日，人民银行同时开展了7天期与14天期逆回购操作，显示出在期限结构上的灵活安排。国家金 融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员庞溟认为，临近年末，人民银行选择以期限结构调整为抓手，进行"削 峰填谷"。既满足了银行体系因现金投放、财政收支等因素产生的临时性缺口，也避免了可能引发的资 金空转和杠杆攀升。 ● 本报记者彭扬 中国人民银行消息，12月18日，人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了883亿元7天期逆回购操作。 同时，以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展了1000亿元14天期逆回购操作。专家表示，人民 银行时隔近三个月再次开展14天期逆回购操作，释放出适度宽松货币政策灵活高效的信号。 灵活安排期限结构 保持流动性充裕 专家表示，后续央行将通过各类流动性工具搭配组合，提升短中长期流动性管理的科学性和精准性，保 持市场流动性充裕，引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度。 中央财办有关负责同志此前在详解2025年中央经济工作会议精神时表示，货币政策工具箱既包括降准降 息，也包括其 ...