与此同时，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克也表示，美国劳动力市场接近充分就业，为美联储提供了"从 容"的空间，无需急于调整政策。他在阿拉巴马的一次活动中指出："政策波动可能对公众造成困扰，我 倾向于等待更多清晰信号再行动。" 不过，他也警告称，7月就业报告显示新增岗位远低于预期，并对前两个月数据进行了历史性下调，如 果劳动力市场比预期更疲软，可能会改变政策讨论的平衡。博斯蒂克表示："未来五周内，我们的任务 是更好地了解就业市场状况，为9月政策会议做准备。" 美联储在7月29-30日的会议上将短期借贷利率维持在4.25%-4.50%区间，副主席鲍曼和理事沃勒投了反 对票，主张降息以应对潜在的劳动力市场疲软。古尔斯比认为，目前的经济信号更为复杂。 他指出，尽管经过近期修正的月度新增就业数据显示过去三个月平均仅增加35,000个岗位，但这可能更 多反映移民数量下降，而非需求疲软。他还提到，4.2%的失业率和低裁员率显示劳动力市场依然稳 健。 关于降息时机，古尔斯比表示，需要看到多个月的通胀数据稳定下降才能有信心采取行动。他解释 称："我们将持续获取信息，并沿着既定路径前进；如果通胀确实向2%目标靠拢，我们可能会更快地回 到 ...

当地时间8月12日，美国劳工部数据显示，美国7月份消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%，环比上涨 0.2%。剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，7月份核心CPI同比上涨3.1%，环比涨幅为0.3%。这两项数 据均高于上月，其中环比涨幅为近6个月以来的最大值。一些市场分析人士认为，虽然当月与关税直接 相关的商品价格没有出现显著上涨，但是服务类价格反弹，预计关税成本会进一步向下游传导，服务类 产品通胀升高凸显出控制通胀的难度。 核心CPI创半年新高，对于市场预期的美联储9月降息而言仍不是好消息，但7月份美国CPI整体数据显 示通胀压力仍相对温和，市场担忧的通胀急剧上升的情况尚未出现。数据公布之后，市场加大了对于美 联储9月的降息定价。据芝加哥商品交易所"美联储观察"数据，美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为6.6%， 降息25个基点的概率为93.4%。美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为2.4%，累计降息25个基点的概率为 37.7%，累计降息50个基点的概率为59.9%。 从分项数据来看，7月核心商品通胀出现了同比和环比的温和双增，而服务性通胀再次回升明显，医 疗、公共事业、交通、娱乐和住房等服务等分项同比均超3%。随着 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted EBITDA of $8 million for Q2 2025, a decline of $2.1 million compared to the prior year, primarily due to lower margins in the forged and cast engineered products segment [5][22] - Net sales for 2025 were $113.1 million, an increase of 2% compared to 2024, driven by higher sales of forged engineered products and favorable FX translation [21][22] - The net loss attributable to Ampco Pittsburgh for Q2 2025 was $7.3 million, or $0.36 per share, which includes $6.8 million related to the UK exit charge [24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Forged and Cast Engineered Products segment reported net sales of $77.9 million, a 3% increase compared to 2024, but adjusted EBITDA decreased by $1.5 million to $6.8 million [7][22] - The Air and Liquid Processing segment saw a 15% increase in adjusted EBITDA, reaching $3.9 million in Q2, with year-to-date adjusted EBITDA of $7.7 million, the highest in the segment's history [6][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Demand in North America and Europe for flat rolled products remains weak, with many U.S. customers postponing purchases due to tariff uncertainty [9][10] - The baseline tariff for U.S. imports from Sweden and Slovenia increased to 15%, impacting short-term expectations but not long-term fundamentals [10][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is winding down operations at its UK facility, expecting a minimum of $5 million improvement in operating income on an annualized basis once complete [6][21] - The company is focusing on reshoring opportunities in tool steel and distribution products, while maintaining pricing discipline and cost control measures [8][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the pause in customer orders was due to tariff clarity, but they expect improved order activity as uncertainties are resolved [30][46] - The long-term fundamentals remain strong, with expectations for growth in construction spending, automotive production, and can sheet demand at mid-single-digit rates over the next five years [11][12] Other Important Information - The company recorded $6.8 million in expenses related to the UK exit charge, impacting various expense line items on the consolidated P&L [21][24] - The company amended and extended its credit agreement, increasing available liquidity to support global working capital needs [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on the role market and potential demand - Management indicated that the second half of the year will see lighter shipments due to fewer days and holidays, but there has been a slight uptick in order activity from large customers [29][30] Question: Impact of UK facility closure on revenues - The closure is expected to reduce revenues by approximately $25 million to $30 million, with some offset from converting products [44]

Core Viewpoint - UBS has raised its S&P 500 index targets for the end of 2025 from 5500 to 6100 and for the end of 2026 from 6100 to 6800, reflecting better-than-expected health of the U.S. economy and corporate sector [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - UBS indicates that the worst-case scenario regarding tariffs has not materialized, and confidence in fiscal support along with a weaker dollar has alleviated profit pressures [1] - The combination of U.S. economic growth and inflation may worsen, leading to reduced profit growth expectations and increased market volatility [1] - UBS expects a short-term market decline, potentially remaining below current levels until the end of 2025, followed by a significant rebound in the second half of 2026 [1] Group 2: Upside Risks - Surprises in earnings from technology and related companies could push the S&P 500 index to 7200 [2] - Companies affected by tariffs may maintain profit margins despite increased tariffs [2] - The impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation may be less than UBS currently anticipates [2] - Consumer spending continues despite a decline in real disposable income [2] - U.S. capital expenditures and industrial production may rebound due to domestic production repatriation, foreign direct investment, and new technology applications [2] - The Federal Reserve may adopt more accommodative policies in response to tariffs than UBS expects [2] - A weaker dollar and stronger global economic growth could exceed UBS's current expectations [2] Group 3: Downside Risks - Increased tariffs could trigger retaliatory tariffs [3] - Companies that previously hoarded labor may begin large-scale layoffs, harming consumer income and spending as excess savings deplete [3] - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts may be less than expected, negatively impacting market sentiment [3] - Rising import costs could lead to a significant decline in company profit margins from high levels [3] - Confidence in the positive growth impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act, industrial repatriation, and increased direct investment may diminish [3]

Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. July 2025 CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, meeting expectations, while the year-on-year increase was 2.7%, slightly below the expected 2.8%[2] - The core CPI for July rose by 0.3% month-on-month, matching expectations, and recorded a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, exceeding the expected 3.0%[2] Core CPI Insights - The core CPI's month-on-month increase was driven by medical services (0.8%) and transportation services (0.8%), while core goods remained flat at 0.2%[2] - Year-on-year, core goods CPI rose significantly from 0.6% to 1.1%, marking the highest level since June 2023[2] Service Inflation Factors - Service inflation may be indirectly influenced by tariffs, as rising operational costs could lead businesses to increase service prices[2] - Notably, airfares saw a significant month-on-month increase of 4% in July, reflecting heightened service demand[2] Federal Reserve Implications - The July CPI data supports a 96.4% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a 51.5% chance of three cumulative cuts by December[2] - Despite the potential for rate cuts, inflation risks remain, particularly with service inflation pressures and tariffs still in play[2] Market Reactions - Following the CPI data release, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 4 basis points to 3.72%, while the 10-year yield rose by 2 basis points to 4.29%[2] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reached record closing highs, indicating increased market risk appetite[2] Risk Considerations - There is high uncertainty regarding U.S. tariff policies and their impact on inflation, alongside potential economic downturns and unexpected Fed rate cuts[8]

【美国7月CPI同比增2.7%略低于预期，国债收益率走低】周三，投资者消化最新通胀数据，考量关税 对美国的影响，美国国债收益率走低。截至发稿，10年期美债收益率跌逾3个基点至4.255%，2年期跌 逾1个基点至3.711%，30年期跌逾4个基点至4.841%。1个基点等于0.01%，收益率与价格呈反向变动关 系。 7月通胀数据低于预期，缓解投资者对关税致物价加速上涨的担忧。交易员认为美联储9月会议降 息概率接近96%。 德意志银行分析师称，近几个月有效关税税率波动显著，评估其全面影响更复杂。 部分关税8月7日刚实施，未来或有更多针对药品和半导体等领域关税，对通胀影响还需时间明确。 通 胀报告发布在即，美联储8月21 - 23日将在杰克逊霍尔开会，报告或影响货币政策决策。投资者接下来 关注周四的生产者价格指数。 本周投资者还将关注其他数据，包括周五的7月零售销售数据和密歇根大 学消费者信心指数。 ...

【美国7月CPI同比增2.7%略低于预期，国债收益率走低】周三，美国国债收益率走低，投资者消化最 新通胀数据，考量关税对美影响。 截至发稿，10年期美债收益率跌逾3个基点至4.255%；2年期跌逾1个 基点至3.711%；30年期跌逾4个基点至4.841%。 1个基点等于0.01%，收益率与价格呈反向变动。 7月通 胀数据低于预期，缓解投资者对关税致物价加速上涨的担忧。交易员认为美联储9月会议降息概率近 96%。 德意志银行分析师称，近几个月有效关税税率波动显著，评估其全面影响更复杂。 他们还表 示，关税对通胀的影响或需一段时间才有明确信号，部分关税8月7日刚实施，未来或有更多领域关税。 通胀报告发布在即，美联储8月21 - 23日将开会，报告或影响货币政策决策。 投资者接下来关注周四的 生产者价格指数，本周还关注周五的7月零售销售数据和消费者信心指数。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The USDA's reduction in the production forecast and ending stocks for US cotton in the 2025/2026 season led to a 2.39% overnight increase in US cotton prices, closing at 68.44 cents per pound on ICE. The Zhengzhou cotton main contract 2601 rose 1.8%, closing at 14,130 yuan per ton, up 250 yuan from the previous trading day. Future attention should be paid to the marginal impacts of tariffs, the Fed's rate - cut pace, and domestic policy trends. Globally, the total cotton production is expected to decrease, while consumption is slightly reduced, and ending stocks are significantly down. Domestically, the cotton de - stocking trend is good, new cotton may have a good harvest this year, but the demand remains weak, limiting the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - The Zhengzhou cotton main contract 2601 rose 1.8%, closing at 14,130 yuan per ton, up 250 yuan from the previous trading day. The USDA's reduction in the production forecast and ending stocks for US cotton in the 2025/2026 season led to a 2.39% overnight increase in US cotton prices, closing at 68.44 cents per pound on ICE. Future attention should be paid to the marginal impacts of tariffs, the Fed's rate - cut pace, and domestic policy trends [1][2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On August 13, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 8,287 (-82) sheets, including 8,006 (-81) registered warehouse receipts and 281 (-1) valid forecasts [3]. - In mid - August, the average temperature in southern and eastern Xinjiang was higher, while in other areas it was slightly lower. Precipitation was higher in the western parts of northern and southern Xinjiang and lower in other areas. The meteorological conditions in mid - August were favorable for agricultural and livestock production, but the previous high - temperature weather was unfavorable for cotton boll growth [4]. - As of August 10, the national budding rate in the US was 93%, 2 percentage points behind last year and 1 percentage point behind the five - year average [4]. - The USDA's August supply - demand report showed that the expected US cotton yield in 2025/2026 was 862 pounds per acre, up 53 pounds from the July forecast; production was expected to be 2.88 million tons, down 300,000 tons from July; and ending stocks were expected to be 780,000 tons, down 220,000 tons from July [4]. - Globally, the expected total cotton production in this season is 25.392 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 391,000 tons or 1.5%; consumption is expected to be 25.688 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons or 0.1%; and ending stocks are 16.093 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 742,000 tons or 4.4% [4]. - In July 2025, the China Cotton Textile Industry Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 35.71%, a decrease of 12 percentage points from the previous month [5]. 3.3 Data Charts - The report includes charts on CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton import profit,棉纱 import profit, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions [6][8][12][17]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategy - Internationally, the Sino - US Stockholm economic and trade talks jointly announced that the 24% tariff would be suspended again for 90 days from August 12, 2025. The USDA's August supply - demand report was positive for cotton prices, leading to a rise in US cotton. Domestically, the cotton de - stocking trend is good, new cotton may have a good harvest this year, but the demand remains weak, limiting the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton [18].

. 美国7月CPI年率持平于2.7%强化9月降息预期（概率超93%）支撑金价，但核心CPI升至3.1%凸显通胀粘性潜在压制；美国债务总额首破37万亿美元加剧债务风险，叠加 特朗普施压美联储降息提振黄金货币属性；中美关税休战延期90天缓和避险情绪，而俄美领导人会晤临近或扰动地缘风险溢价；此前关税政策乌龙引发COMEX溢价波 动，国内现货需求减弱迹象显现，短期金价震荡偏强但需警惕情绪退潮风险。 SHFE金银期货主连价格. source： Wind 元/克 SHFE黄金 SHFE白银(右轴) 元/千克 24/04 24/08 24/12 25/04 500 600 700 800 900 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 COMEX黄金与金银比. source： wind 美元/盎司 COMEX黄金价格 COMEX金银比价(右轴) 24/04 24/08 24/12 25/04 2000 2500 3000 3500 70 80 90 100 110 120 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/08/13 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that despite record tariff revenues, the U.S. budget deficit increased by 20% in July compared to the previous year, highlighting a growing financial imbalance [1][2] - U.S. customs revenue rose by 273% year-on-year in July, amounting to an increase of $21 billion, but overall spending also surged, contributing to the rising deficit [1][2] - The total federal debt is approaching $37 trillion, raising concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability [1] Group 2 - The imposition of tariffs may not fulfill President Trump's promise to improve government finances, potentially leading to fewer job opportunities and increased inflationary pressures for the public [2] - The Federal Budget Committee anticipates tariff revenues to reach approximately $1.3 trillion during Trump's four-year term, although some economists suggest that the impact on federal debt reduction will be modest [2] - Market sentiment around silver prices remains strong, with domestic commodities experiencing a resurgence, and the silver price premium expanding to around 420 yuan per kilogram [3]