1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market continues to fluctuate. Multiple factors affect oil prices. The actual supply and demand of crude oil show that Kazakhstan's crude oil supply is expected to return, which will help ease the tight situation in the European market. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East support oil prices, but the market is in a state of oversupply. The short - term trend is dominated by the Iranian situation [1][6]. - The chemical sector continues to fluctuate. The influence of supply - demand factors has weakened, and market expectations play a strong role. The inventory of liquid chemicals has increased weekly, and the industry is about to enter the off - season, leading to inventory accumulation. The overall chemical market is in a fluctuating pattern [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views on Different Products 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitics dominates the rhythm. - **Main Logic**: US crude oil production was temporarily affected by the cold wave last week, but the impact was short - lived. US oil product inventories are at a high level, indicating a pessimistic fundamental outlook. The market is in a state of oversupply, and the short - term trend is dominated by the Iranian situation. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. Although the fundamentals are still in a state of oversupply, potential disturbances in supply expectations due to geopolitical situations in Iran and Russia are frequent, causing the geopolitical premium to fluctuate [6]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: The cost of crude oil supports asphalt futures prices. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will suspend production increases in the first quarter, and the partial lifting of sanctions on Venezuela will lead to abundant long - term asphalt supply, which is a significant negative factor. The repeated situation between the US and Iran provides cost - side support for asphalt futures. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and inventory accumulation pressure is high. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. The absolute price of asphalt is in an overvalued range, and its long - term valuation is expected to decline [8]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premium strengthens the support for fuel oil. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will suspend production increases, and the US is helping Venezuela increase oil production, leading to a strong expectation of increased heavy - oil supply, which puts long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East increase the geopolitical premium, but high floating - storage in the Asia - Pacific region and the replacement of fuel - oil power generation by natural gas and photovoltaics in the Middle East are long - term negative factors. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. The expected growth in Venezuela's oil production puts long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil, and short - term attention should be paid to geopolitical trends in the Middle East [8]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The sharp rise in natural gas prices may support low - sulfur fuel oil. - **Main Logic**: The sharp rise in US natural gas prices drives the refining spread of refined oil products and boosts the expectation of low - sulfur fuel oil for power generation. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strong product attributes and is supported. However, it faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by green fuel and high - sulfur substitution, but it may follow the movement of crude oil [10]. 3.1.5 PX - **View**: Capital positions still provide some support for PX, but the near - term performance of the industry is average. - **Main Logic**: The downstream PTA is relatively strong, supporting the bullish sentiment of PX. Although the load of polyester factories is accelerating its decline and the terminal is entering the holiday season, short - term inventory is accumulating, but market sentiment still supports prices. - **Outlook**: In the short term, PX prices will fluctuate under the support of sentiment. Attention should be paid to the support level of around 7300 yuan/ton for the PX05 contract, and the PXN is expected to fluctuate within the range of [340, 380] US dollars/ton [10]. 3.1.6 PTA - **View**: The near - month inventory accumulation trend is difficult to reverse, and attention should be paid to capital flow. - **Main Logic**: The short - term capital side still provides strong support for PTA prices, but the industry itself performs averagely. Downstream polyester factories are accelerating production cuts, and the off - season in the terminal textile industry is deepening, leading to an accumulation of PTA supply and demand. - **Outlook**: It is expected that PTA will maintain a fluctuating consolidation in the short term. Bullish capital provides some support for the futures price. Attention should be paid to the support level of around 30 yuan/ton for the TA05 - 09 spread. In the short term, the TA processing fee will remain at a high level, and the industry can hedge to lock in production profits [10][12]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **View**: The game between expectations and reality leads to a fluctuating operation of pure benzene. - **Main Logic**: The recent rise is due to factors such as the first de - stocking of pure benzene in East China ports in nearly two months, downstream profit - locking driving up the price of pure benzene, and the supplementary rise under the multi - allocation atmosphere of aromatics. Although the high inventory may limit the increase in the short term, the fundamentals will improve quarter - on - quarter in the first quarter. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. High inventory needs time to be digested, but the fundamentals will improve quarter - on - quarter in Q1, and it is expected to fluctuate under the strong sentiment of energy - chemical products [16]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **View**: Capital behavior combined with export narratives has led to a recent rise in styrene. - **Main Logic**: The recent strong rise in styrene prices is due to capital behavior under the expectations of the long - term bottom of the chemical industry and the rotation of commodity sectors. In addition, the supply - demand of styrene has been tight recently, and the expected inventory accumulation in January has turned into de - stocking. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. Although there will be seasonal inventory accumulation and a narrowing of profits, the impact of exports and better fundamentals than pure benzene are expected to limit the decline [17]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **View**: There is still a lack of upward driving force in the near term, and the price will fluctuate widely within the range. - **Main Logic**: Ethylene glycol is affected by capital and market sentiment in the short term. In terms of the industry, there is still significant pressure on inventory accumulation, and there is a lack of effective upward driving force. Domestic supply reduction is slow, and the domestic operating rate is expected to continue to rise at the end of the month. - **Outlook**: The price will maintain a range - bound consolidation in the short term. Operate within the range of [3800 - 4050] yuan/ton. Pay short - term attention to the operation of EG05 - 09 within the range of [- 120, - 85] yuan/ton [18][20]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: The market has a strong wait - and - see attitude, and subsequent demand is expected to decline. - **Main Logic**: After the sharp rise in prices, the market has a strong wait - and - see attitude. Some spinning mills plan to enter the holiday at the end of the month, and the sustainability of subsequent demand is weak. The supply - demand of short - fiber is expected to weaken marginally. - **Outlook**: The price of short - fiber will follow the adjustment of upstream raw materials, and the processing fee will be slightly under pressure [21][22]. 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - **View**: It will follow the cost fluctuations, and the support for profits will be enhanced. - **Main Logic**: The prices of upstream raw materials are consolidating at a high level, and the trading atmosphere has declined slightly. With the reduction in the supply of polyester bottle chips, the support for processing fees is relatively strong, and the absolute price will follow the fluctuations of upstream raw materials. - **Outlook**: The absolute value will follow the raw material fluctuations, and the support for processing fees will be enhanced [23][24]. 3.1.12 Methanol - **View**: There is a long - short game in coastal areas, and methanol will fluctuate within a range. - **Main Logic**: The fundamental situation of the inland market is that supply is stronger than demand. The upstream is actively reducing prices to sell goods, and the downstream is actively purchasing at low prices. Coastal inventory is high, and the pressure on de - stocking is increasing. However, the bullish factors of overseas disturbances are stronger, and the market is mainly trading on the expected disturbances to Iranian methanol plants if a conflict breaks out between the US and Iran. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. The situation in Iran is still uncertain, and there is still uncertainty about overseas plant disturbances. Although the actual support of the fundamentals is limited after excluding overseas disturbances, short - term trading will probably focus on the development of the overseas situation, and the futures price may still have room to rise [26][27][28]. 3.1.13 Urea - **View**: Market transactions are in a stalemate, and urea will fluctuate and consolidate. - **Main Logic**: The supply side has increased production as previously shut - down and some gas - based plants have gradually resumed operation, with overall sufficient supply. On the demand side, agricultural demand only has moderate follow - up in some areas, and industrial demand is mainly for on - demand replenishment. The actual spot transactions are insufficient, and the market sentiment is wait - and - see. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. There is no substantial guidance in the market currently. There is rigid support from agricultural and industrial demand at low prices, but agricultural demand does not support a concentrated boom, and industrial demand is expected to decline in the twelfth lunar month. The market is in a stalemate, and the short - term market may continue to consolidate [28][29]. 3.1.14 LLDPE (Plastic) - **View**: The raw material end and macro factors drive the rebound, but the upward space is limited. - **Main Logic**: The oil price fluctuates, and the high inventory of US oil products points to a pessimistic fundamental outlook. The cold wave in the US has driven up the price of natural gas, which has boosted the performance of plastics through ethane. After the rebound, the profits of various production methods have been repaired, but the spot follow - up is limited. The demand for plastics is in the off - season, and the demand support is still cautious. There is still an expectation of macro - consumption policy stimulus in the future. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation [33]. 3.1.15 PP - **View**: The basis support is limited, and the upward space of PP is cautiously viewed. - **Main Logic**: The oil price fluctuates, and the high inventory of US oil products points to a pessimistic fundamental outlook. The profits of various PP production methods have been repaired, and the upward space is limited. The downstream of PP is in the off - season, and the trading volume has decreased recently. After the price rebound, the downstream confidence has been slightly repaired, and there is an expectation of macro - consumption policy stimulus. Short - term maintenance support still exists, and attention should be paid to PDH and the impact of profit changes on maintenance intentions. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation in the short term [34]. 3.1.16 PL - **View**: Supply is tight, and PL will fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of PDH maintenance still provides a boost. The overall supply of propylene is tight, enterprise inventory is low, and some offers continue to rise. Downstream buying is active, and the actual transaction price has increased. The short - term profit of powder materials fluctuates slightly, and the support from downstream demand in the off - season is limited. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation in the short term [35]. 3.1.17 PVC - **View**: The cold wave disturbs the supply expectation, and PVC rebounds slightly. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical tensions and the overseas cold wave have formed potential supply disturbances, boosting the commodity market sentiment. At the micro - level, the "rush for exports" of PVC supports demand, and the overseas cold wave disturbs the supply expectation, with the possibility of fundamental improvement. However, the downstream start - up will decline seasonally, and the inventory replenishment intention is not strong. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. The "rush for exports" of PVC and the overseas supply disturbance expectation provide support, but the fundamental pressure has not been reversed, and the futures price will be in a fluctuating state [36]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: Profits are significantly compressed, and caustic soda should be stopped for profit at low prices. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical tensions and the overseas cold wave have formed potential supply disturbances, boosting the commodity market sentiment. At the micro - level, the weak reality of caustic soda continues, and inventory is still accumulating. The fundamentals show that the marginal profit of alumina plants is poor, the inventory of Weiqiao's caustic soda is high, the demand for caustic soda from non - aluminum industries is weak, the upstream start - up rate changes little, and the output of caustic soda remains at a high level. The price of liquid chlorine is stable in the short term, but the risk of price decline increases approaching the Spring Festival, and the dynamic cost of caustic soda in Shandong is rising. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation with a weak trend. The upstream will actively reduce inventory before the Spring Festival, and the caustic soda spot price is still under pressure. Considering the increasing risk of liquid chlorine price decline before the Spring Festival, short positions in caustic soda should be stopped for profit at low prices [37]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy - Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spreads**: Data on the cross - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc., are provided, including the latest values and changes [40]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., is given, including the latest values and changes [41]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Data on the cross - variety spreads of various varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, L - P, etc., are presented, including the latest values and changes [42]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific content is summarized in the given text, but the monitoring involves multiple varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, characteristic index, and plate index of the commodity are provided. The comprehensive index shows an upward trend, with the energy index having significant increases in the short - term, near - term, and long - term [282][283].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, with the expected production increase in Venezuela and the normalization of low - intensity frictions between the US and Iran, there is a bottom support for oil prices. It is cost - effective to go long when the price is around the shale oil break - even point in the medium - to - long term [3] - For methanol, the current valuation is low, and its future pattern will improve marginally. Although there is short - term downward pressure, it is feasible to go long at low prices due to geopolitical expectations in Iran [5] - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is recommended to short [7] - For rubber, with the overall rise in commodities, but the seasonal weakness of rubber, it is recommended to trade with a neutral mindset, short - term trading on the disk. Short - sell if RU2605 falls below 16000, and partially build a position for the strategy of buying NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [10][13] - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and the fundamental situation is poor. In the short term, it is supported by electricity price expectations, export rush, and strong commodity sentiment. In the medium term, the strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts in the industry [15][17] - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, and it is advisable to gradually take profits [19][20] - For polyethylene, the futures price has risen. The price of crude oil may have bottomed out, and the downward valuation space of PE remains. It is in the seasonal off - season, and the overall demand is weakening [22][23] - For polypropylene, the futures price has risen. The supply - surplus situation may ease, and it is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [24][26] - For PX, it is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. In the medium term, there are opportunities to go long following the trend of crude oil [27][28] - For PTA, it is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short term, and there is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the medium term [29][32] - For ethylene glycol, the industry is facing high - inventory and high - production pressure. The valuation needs to be compressed in the medium term, and significant production cuts are needed to improve the supply - demand pattern [33][34] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 17.90 yuan/barrel, a 4.07% increase, closing at 457.30 yuan/barrel; related refined oil main futures, high - sulfur fuel oil rose 178.00 yuan/ton, a 6.81% increase, closing at 2791.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 108.00 yuan/ton, a 3.49% increase, closing at 3206.00 yuan/ton. European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.23 million barrels to 11.48 million barrels, a 2.00% decrease; diesel inventory increased by 0.43 million barrels to 15.41 million barrels, a 2.84% increase; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.37 million barrels to 7.11 million barrels, a 5.56% increase; naphtha inventory decreased by 0.27 million barrels to 5.92 million barrels, a 4.36% decrease; aviation kerosene inventory increased by 0.21 million barrels to 7.83 million barrels, a 2.79% increase; the overall refined oil inventory increased by 0.51 million barrels to 47.76 million barrels, a 1.08% increase [2][3] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Venezuela's oil production is expected to increase gradually. The situation between the US and Iran will enter a state of low - intensity friction normalization. There is a bottom support for oil prices, and it is cost - effective to go long around the shale oil break - even point in the medium - to - long term [3] Methanol - **Market Information**: The spot price in Jiangsu changed by 25 yuan/ton, in Lunan by - 17.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 77.00 yuan/ton, closing at 2347 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by - 148 yuan [5] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation is low, and the future pattern will improve marginally. It is feasible to go long at low prices due to geopolitical expectations in Iran [5] Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong and Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 3 yuan/ton, closing at 1791 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was reported at - 51 yuan/ton [7] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current internal - external price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is recommended to short [7] Rubber - **Market Information**: Commodities and chemicals rose overall, and rubber prices rebounded. The sharp rise in butadiene rubber may be due to macro funds' large - scale allocation of chemical longs, the expected increase in naphtha and butadiene costs due to the naphtha consumption tax policy, and the increase in butadiene exports due to spot demand in South Korea. The port inventory decreased significantly. The long and short sides have different views on natural rubber. The long side believes that rubber production in Southeast Asia may be limited, and there is an expected improvement in demand in China; the short side believes that the macro - economic outlook is uncertain, and supply is increasing while demand is in the seasonal off - season. As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of Shandong tire enterprises' all - steel tires was 62.84%, 2.30 percentage points higher than last week and 2.78 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises' semi - steel tires was 74.35%, 6.35 percentage points higher than last week and 4.09 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of January 11, 2026, China's total natural rubber social inventory was 125.6 tons, a 1.9% increase from the previous period [10][11] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the overall rise in commodities but the seasonal weakness of rubber, it is recommended to trade with a neutral mindset, short - term trading on the disk. Short - sell if RU2605 falls below 16000, and partially build a position for the strategy of buying NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [13] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 72 yuan, closing at 4921 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4750 (+100) yuan/ton, the basis was - 209 (+62) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 117 (- 6) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2475 (- 25) yuan/ton, the price of semi - coke was 785 (- 35) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 705 (- 5) dollars/ton, and the price of caustic soda was 605 (- 17) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.7%, a 0.9% decrease from the previous period; among them, the calcium carbide method was 80%, unchanged from the previous period; the ethylene method was 75.7%, a 3.1% decrease from the previous period. The overall downstream operating rate was 44.9%, a 1% increase from the previous period. The in - plant inventory was 30.8 tons (- 0.3), and the social inventory was 117.8 tons (+3.3) [15] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and the fundamental situation is poor. In the short term, it is supported by electricity price expectations, export rush, and strong commodity sentiment. In the medium term, the strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts in the industry [16][17] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 6010 yuan/ton, a 45 - yuan increase; the closing price of the active contract was 6078 yuan/ton, a 45 - yuan increase; the basis of pure benzene was - 68 yuan/ton, a 23 - yuan increase. The spot price of styrene was 7850 yuan/ton, a 150 - yuan increase; the closing price of the active contract was 7702 yuan/ton, a 6 - yuan decrease; the basis was 148 yuan/ton, a 156 - yuan increase. The BZN spread was 194.75 yuan/ton, a 9.75 - yuan increase; the profit of non - integrated EB plants was 119.6 yuan/ton, a 20.55 - yuan decrease; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 69.63%, a 1.23% decrease; the inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.71 tons to 9.35 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.40%, a 0.49% increase; the operating rate of PS was 57.30%, a 0.10% decrease, the operating rate of EPS was 58.71%, a 4.65% increase, and the operating rate of ABS was 66.80%, a 3.00% decrease [19] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, and it is advisable to gradually take profits [20] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6935 yuan/ton, a 70 - yuan increase; the spot price was 6850 yuan/ton, a 75 - yuan increase; the basis was - 85 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan increase. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, a 1.23% increase. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.51 tons to 35.03 tons, and the trader inventory remained unchanged at 2.92 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 41.1%, a 0.11% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 27 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan decrease [22] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of crude oil may have bottomed out. The downward valuation space of PE remains. It is in the seasonal off - season, and the overall demand is weakening [23] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6737 yuan/ton, an 81 - yuan increase; the spot price was 6600 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan increase; the basis was - 137 yuan/ton, a 56 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, a 0.01% decrease. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.67 tons to 43.1 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.08 tons to 19.39 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.05 tons to 7.06 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 52.58%, a 0.02% decrease. The LL - PP spread was 198 yuan/ton, an 11 - yuan decrease; the PP5 - 9 spread was - 41 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan decrease [24][25] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - surplus situation may ease. In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [26] PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 118 yuan, closing at 7508 yuan. The PX CFR price rose 7 dollars, closing at 930 dollars. The basis was - 35 yuan (+34), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 108 yuan (+10). The operating rate in China was 88.9%, a 0.5% decrease; the Asian operating rate was 81%, a 0.4% increase. Zhejiang Petrochemical further reduced its load, Sinochem Quanzhou restarted, and the South Korean GS plant restarted overseas. The PTA operating rate was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase. In the first and middle of January, South Korea's PX exports to China were 21.5 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.8 tons. The inventory at the end of November was 446 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6 tons. The PXN was 358 dollars (+18), the South Korean PX - MX was 151 dollars (+5), and the naphtha crack spread was 86 dollars (- 14) [27] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. In the medium term, there are opportunities to go long following the trend of crude oil [28] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 150 yuan, closing at 5448 yuan. The East China spot price rose 65 yuan, closing at 5350 yuan. The basis was - 79 yuan (- 1), and the 5 - 9 spread was 30 yuan (- 10). The PTA operating rate was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase. The downstream operating rate was 86.4%, a 1.9% decrease. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 4% to 66%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 6% to 49%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 16 was 204.5 tons, a 4 - ton increase from the previous period. The spot processing fee of PTA rose 34 yuan to 439 yuan, and the disk processing fee fell 19 yuan to 504 yuan [29] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short term, and there is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the medium term [30][32] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 150 yuan, closing at 3997 yuan. The East China spot price rose 89 yuan, closing at 3887 yuan. The basis was - 120 yuan (- 2), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 97 yuan (- 14). The supply - side operating rate was 73%, a 1.4% decrease; among them, the synthetic gas - based operating rate was 79.4%, a 0.8% decrease; the ethylene - based operating rate was 69.5%, a 1.7% decrease. The downstream operating rate was 86.4%, a 1.9% decrease. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 4% to 66%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 6% to 49%. The import arrival forecast was 20.5 tons, and the East China departure volume from January 23 - 25 was 2 tons. The port inventory was 85.8 tons, a 6.3 - ton increase from the previous period. The naphtha - based profit was - 869 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 606 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 352 yuan. The price of ethylene fell to 705 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal fines fell to 530 yuan [33] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry is facing high - inventory and high - production pressure. The valuation needs to be compressed in the medium term, and significant production cuts are needed to improve the supply - demand pattern [34]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：期货日报 1月26日，铂族金属跟随金属板块同步大涨。截至当日收盘，铂期货主力2606合约上涨9.68%，报744.70 元/克；钯期货主力2606合约大幅上涨7.17%，报534.80元/克。 | 铂2606 | 744.70 +9.68% | 65.75 | | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 pt2606 | | | | 锂2606 | 534.80 +7.17% | 35.80 | | 期货 pd2606 | | | 值得注意的是，1月26日，针对部分品种价格近期波动较大的情况，广期所发布风险提示称，期货公司 应切实履行风险管理职责，强化客户交易行为合规监管和风险防范，提醒投资者依规、谨慎、理性参与 交易，确保市场平稳运行。 同时，广期所将坚持严监严管主基调，持续强化市场监管，严肃查处各类违规行为，加强实际控制关系 账户调查、认定，发挥五位一体监管协作合力，依法严厉打击市场操纵行为，维护市场秩序。 国投期货分析师孙芳芳认为，铂、钯期货价格上行的主要原因是海外避险情绪升温。"虽然美国不再对 关键资源国加征关税，缓解了铂、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising trend of oil prices entering 2026, indicating that consumers should prepare for higher costs at the pump as domestic fuel prices are expected to increase significantly [1][3]. Price Trends - International oil prices have shown a steep upward trajectory, with Brent crude oil stabilizing above $65 per barrel and New York crude surpassing $61 per barrel [3]. - The current upward trend is characterized by a "three consecutive weeks of gains" pattern, temporarily sidelining previous predictions of a downward trend [3]. - Predictions suggest that when the price adjustment window opens on February 3, domestic gasoline and diesel prices are likely to increase by approximately 140 yuan per ton, translating to a rise of over 0.13 yuan per liter for both 92-octane gasoline and 0-diesel [3]. Regional Price Variations - The retail price of 92-octane gasoline across most provinces in China is currently hovering between 6.7 to 6.9 yuan per liter, with specific prices such as 6.77 yuan in Beijing and 6.90 yuan in Guizhou [5][6]. - Diesel prices have also risen, with the national average for 0-diesel reaching 6,000 yuan per ton in Northeast Shenyang and maintaining around 6.32 yuan per liter in Guangxi [5]. Market Dynamics - The fluctuations in oil prices are influenced by a complex interplay of geopolitical factors and global supply-demand fundamentals, leading to high volatility in the market [4][6]. - Recent market behavior has shown sharp declines followed by strong rebounds, reflecting the unpredictable nature of oil price movements [4]. Consumer Impact - The rising oil prices are expected to have a cumulative effect on various sectors, including commuting and logistics, ultimately impacting broader economic conditions [3][5]. - Understanding the underlying logic of oil price fluctuations may help consumers better plan their expenses and adapt to the new normal of high volatility [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Kremlin's outright rejection of EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas signifies a significant shift in Russia-EU diplomatic relations, indicating a power struggle that could reshape the geopolitical landscape of Europe [1][3]. Group 1: Diplomatic Dynamics - Peskov's statement that "Russia will never discuss anything with Kaja Kallas" and the assertion that "Americans will not talk to her either" highlights a rare dual denial in Kremlin's communications, marking a strategic shift in Russia's diplomatic approach [3][4]. - The phrase "waiting for her to leave" as the only solution reflects a calculated strategy regarding Kallas's term, indicating a long-term view on future diplomatic engagements [3][6]. Group 2: Kaja Kallas's Background - Kaja Kallas, a former Prime Minister of Estonia, has been known for her hardline stance against Russia since taking office in November 2024, advocating for accountability for Russia's aggressive actions and pushing for military aid to Ukraine [3][6]. - Her "hawkish" position directly contradicts Russia's principle of "security is indivisible," undermining the foundation for dialogue between the two parties [3][6]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - Russia's "non-contact diplomacy" strategy serves to redefine the rules of engagement with the EU, reminiscent of Cold War-era tactics, and aims to control the narrative by excluding specific individuals from dialogue [4][6]. - The ongoing conflict represents a test of the EU's "strategic autonomy" as it seeks to expand military aid to Ukraine and implement further sanctions against Russia, which are fundamentally at odds with Moscow's security demands [6][7]. Group 4: Internal EU Dynamics - The conflict reveals deep-seated contradictions within the EU's foreign policy decision-making, as Kallas must navigate the diverse interests of 27 member states while facing challenges of insufficient authority and accusations of overstepping her mandate [6][7]. - Recent proposals for "European autonomous defense" by French President Macron clash with Polish Prime Minister Tusk's call for complete isolation of Russia, highlighting the internal divisions that complicate Kallas's diplomatic efforts [6][7]. Group 5: Historical Context - The current diplomatic crisis marks the third significant turning point in Russia-EU relations since 1991, following the 2004 EU expansion and the 2014 Crimea crisis, indicating a shift towards a "strategic mutual suspicion" era [7][8]. - Russia's strategy of "waiting for her to leave" not only reflects a tactical calculation regarding Kallas's tenure but also serves to exploit the EU's diplomatic cycle, potentially paving the way for future negotiations [7][8]. Group 6: Broader Implications - The ongoing diplomatic standoff underscores a deeper question of international order reconstruction, as "non-contact" becomes a new norm in great power competition, prompting a reevaluation of the essence of international dialogue [8]. - The countdown to Kallas's term end raises questions about whether it will serve as a turning point in Russia-EU relations and how future diplomatic engagements will be structured [8].

| 国投真报 | | | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月26日 | | 黄金 | ★☆☆ 白银 | ★☆★ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | ★☆☆ 紀 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日贵金属延续强势。2026年以来，围绕委内瑞拉、伊朗以及格陵兰岛的地缘事件纷至沓来，特朗普对于全 球秩序的挑战加剧政治经济前景不确定性。特朗普称已通过一项北约协议，将允许美国对格陵兰岛实现全面 准入。美国航母已抵达中东,伊朗官员称伊武装力量已进入全面戒备状态。全球局势动荡令贵金属重心抬升 趋势难改，后续金价具备继续向更高维度冲击的潜力。短期黄金、白银分别冲破5000美元/盎司和100美元/ 盘司整数关口后需 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the increasing uncertainty in global geopolitics, particularly focusing on the challenges faced by the United States amid various crises, including the Trump administration's actions and international conflicts [1][3] - The U.S. military strategy in the Middle East is under significant strain, with reports indicating that the U.S. has lost its previous operational advantages, particularly in Syria, where the situation has deteriorated [3] - The deployment of a large U.S. naval fleet to the Persian Gulf and the introduction of punitive tariffs against Iran signal escalating tensions in the region, with specific military assets being mobilized for potential conflict [5] Group 2 - Domestic structural issues in the U.S. are becoming increasingly apparent, as exemplified by the malfunction of Air Force One, which symbolizes deeper challenges within the U.S. power structure [7] - The U.S. has announced its formal withdrawal from the World Health Organization, with a significant outstanding payment of $260 million for dues in 2024 and 2025, raising concerns about its commitment to international organizations [8] - The current global situation is testing the resilience of national governance and crisis response capabilities, as domestic issues overshadow international disputes, such as the sovereignty of Greenland and tariffs on Iran [9]

Group 1 - The core focus of the market is currently on geopolitical issues, particularly the Greenland dispute, which is influencing trading dynamics and macroeconomic logic [3] - The recent tensions in the Middle East, exacerbated by the gathering of US aircraft carriers, are contributing to market instability, particularly in the Japanese bond and yen markets, which supports a bullish trend for gold [3] - The outlook for gold and silver prices remains strong in the short term, driven by geopolitical factors and supply-demand narratives in the silver market [3] Group 2 - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January is only 2.8%, with a 97.2% chance of maintaining current rates [2] - By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 15.5%, while the likelihood of keeping rates unchanged is 84.1% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is currently influenced by geopolitical tensions and the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with significant price movements observed recently. Group 1: Silver Price Movements - As of January 26, the spot silver price is trading at $109.61 per ounce, having opened at $104.32 and reaching a high of $110.06 and a low of $103.26 during the day [1][2] - The recent upward trend in silver prices is marked by breaking key resistance levels, including $96.00 and $100.00, indicating bullish momentum [5] Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Influences - Tensions between the U.S. and Iran, as well as domestic unrest in the U.S. due to recent law enforcement actions, are contributing to the volatility in the silver market [3] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on January 29 is expected to maintain interest rates, but future statements from Fed officials may influence market expectations [3] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - Analysts suggest that the fundamentals for precious metals remain bullish, driven by healthy demand for reserves and a trend among market participants to diversify and reduce exposure to the dollar [4] - The MACD indicator shows bullish momentum, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 83.57, indicating overbought conditions, suggesting potential for a price correction but overall strong upward trend remains [5]

Core Viewpoint - The international silver market has experienced a dramatic surge, with prices breaking through $107 per ounce and reaching a historical high of $109.22, marking a significant increase of over 5% in a single day [1][5]. Group 1: Price Movement - Silver prices have skyrocketed, with domestic prices in China also rising sharply, reaching 25.65 yuan per gram and 25,651 yuan per kilogram [5]. - The price of silver has increased by 148% since early 2025, and in less than a month into 2026, it has surged by over 40% [3][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The primary driver of the price increase is a significant supply shortage, with the global silver market facing a deficit of 3,600 tons in 2025 [7]. - Silver is increasingly recognized as a critical component in the renewable energy sector, essential for solar panels, electric vehicles, and AI data centers [6][7]. Group 3: Influencing Factors - Three main factors are propelling silver prices: geopolitical tensions, supportive monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, and surging industrial demand [10][12]. - Geopolitical instability has led investors to seek safe-haven assets, with silver being viewed as a more accessible alternative to gold [11]. - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance, indicating potential interest rate cuts, has weakened the dollar, making silver more expensive in dollar terms [12]. - Industrial demand is projected to increase significantly, with estimates suggesting a need for 6,000 tons of silver for solar panel installations alone in 2026 [13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The short-term outlook for silver prices is expected to be volatile, with potential for significant fluctuations [15]. - Historical data suggests that if the gold-silver ratio falls below 50, it may indicate that silver is overvalued [15]. - Long-term projections indicate that silver will remain a strategic asset, with prices potentially reaching between 24-32 yuan per gram (approximately $80-$100) and optimistic forecasts suggesting up to $120 [17][18].