期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 1 月 6 日 0 / 48 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 蛋白粕：供应端仍偏宽松 价格压力相对明显 5 | | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价小涨，国内糖价震荡 5 | | 油脂板块：油脂波动增加 7 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：小麦和玉米拍卖，现货稳定 8 | | 生猪：出栏压力继续体现 现货震荡运行 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡 9 | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般，蛋价稳中有涨 10 | | 苹果：冷库库存偏低，果价高位震荡 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：新年度种植面积预计下降，棉价震荡偏强 12 | | 钢材：基本面边际转弱，钢价区间震荡 13 | | --- | | 双焦：基本面乏善可陈 13 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价震荡运行 14 | | 铁合金：供需边际改善预期叠加成本推动，短期震荡偏强 15 | | 股指期货：仍有上攻动能 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：央行购债规模不及预期 4 | | 金银：地缘主导，短期内或偏强震荡 16 | | --- | | 铂钯：内盘溢价收敛，铂钯随金银上行 17 | | 铜：逢低多 ...

据福克斯新闻台5日报道，白宫官员表示，美国将格陵兰岛纳入其版图并不需要通过战争，并公开质疑 丹麦对格陵兰岛的领土主权。 美国白宫 当地时间1月5日，在接受美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）采访时，白宫办公厅副主任斯蒂芬·米勒为总统 特朗普"必须得到格陵兰岛"的强硬表态辩护。米勒称，美国得到格陵兰岛并不需要采取军事行动，因为 丹麦不会为了该岛与美国作战。 报道称，美国在1月3日发动军事行动，强行控制委内瑞拉总统马杜罗夫妇，引发地缘政治冲击波。在此 背景下，各国关注并猜测美方的下一步动向。3日当天，米勒的妻子凯蒂·米勒在社交媒体发布被涂成美 国国旗颜色的格陵兰岛地图，并配文"很快"，暗示美国即将对格陵兰岛采取行动。5日采访米勒的CNN 记者因此提问，他是否会排除通过武力夺取该岛的可能性。 按照米勒的说法，特朗普认为美国应该拥有格陵兰岛，将其作为美国整体安全体系的一部分。米勒对动 用武力的说法不以为然，并提到当地人口稀少。他说："这不会是对格陵兰岛采取军事行动……格陵兰 岛只有3万人口。"（编者注：米勒原话如此，但格陵兰岛实际共有人口约5.7万人）米勒随即对丹麦拥 有格陵兰岛的主权提出质疑，称"真正的问题是，丹麦凭什么对 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the threat against Iran and a bullish market sentiment, the energy and chemical sectors are strong today, but it is still recommended to treat different varieties differently in the follow - up [1] - The US attack on Venezuela has limited impact on crude oil, and the market may return to the downward drive caused by the oversupply pressure in the first quarter [2][3][4] - Asphalt can be a key long - position variety, while PX - PTA is in a short - term correction and waiting for the next long - entry opportunity, and styrene can be a key short - position variety [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: The US attack on Venezuela has limited impact on crude oil as Venezuela's production accounts for about 1% and daily exports are 50 - 800,000 barrels, and it lacks the geographical advantage of the Strait of Hormuz. After the event, the market may return to the downward drive of the first - quarter oversupply pressure [2][3][4] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it rebounded with a reduction in positions, but the short - term downward structure remains intact. The short - term pressure is at the 436 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [4] (2) Asphalt - Logic: The US attack on Venezuela has a substantial impact on domestic asphalt raw materials. Venezuelan crude oil exports are paralyzed, and the main domestic asphalt raw material, Venezuelan heavy oil, faces a real supply cut. The asphalt market faces dual upward drivers of supply reduction and cost increase. [7] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated today, and the trading volume has been well - matched since yesterday's gap - up opening. The short - term support is at the 2990 level. The hourly - level strategy is to hold half of the long positions and set the stop - profit at 2990 [7] (3) Styrene - Logic: The entire styrene industry chain has high inventory. The high inventory of upstream pure benzene and weak downstream 3S demand, along with the industry's over - capacity, may lead to a price decline if the expected January export increase is false [10] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure, and the 15 - minute level shows a downward structure. The short - term support is below 6700. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see, and hold the 15 - minute - level short positions with a stop - loss at 6835 [11][13] (4) Rubber - Logic: The seasonal inventory of domestic natural rubber is increasing rapidly, and the downstream tire inventory is high, so there is no significant upward driver [15] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It rose slightly with increased positions today. The short - term support is raised to the 15550 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [15] (5) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: Synthetic rubber maintains a high - operating rate, with a slight inventory reduction due to traders' restocking. However, the high supply pressure of butadiene and high downstream tire inventory limit the upward space [17] - Technical Analysis: Both the daily - and hourly - levels show upward structures. It rose slightly with increased positions today. The short - term support is raised to the 11400 level. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [17] (6) PX - Logic: The fundamentals of PX - PTA are strong in both reality and expectation. However, due to the low acceptance of high prices by downstream polyester, it is facing a short - term correction. There is an opportunity for a second low - buying in the medium - term [20] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It rebounded with increased positions today but did not break through the short - term pressure at 7390. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [20][23] (7) PTA - Logic: Similar to PX, the fundamentals of PX - PTA are strong, but it is facing a short - term correction due to downstream resistance. There is an opportunity for a second low - buying in the medium - term [25] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It rebounded with increased positions today but did not break through the short - term pressure at 5205. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [25] (8) PP - Logic: The fundamentals of the olefin industry chain where PP - plastic belongs are still weak. It is only suitable for the chemical configuration logic in the medium - term hedging of long aromatics (PX, PTA) and short olefins (PP, plastic) [28] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It rose slightly with increased positions today. The short - term support is raised to the 6305 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [28] (9) Methanol - Logic: Methanol port inventory is at a historically high level, and although there is an expected reduction in Iranian ship arrivals, the downstream MTO profit is weakening, and the fundamental driving force is still weak. The US attack on Venezuela has limited impact on methanol [31] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the short - term shows an upward structure. It rose sharply with increased positions today. The short - term support is at the 2200 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [31] (10) PVC - Logic: The reality of high production, weak demand, and high inventory of PVC continues, but the current valuation is low. Pay attention to the expected trading of anti - involution and policy support. The news of differential electricity prices in Shaanxi has stimulated a short - term upward movement [34] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It rose sharply with increased positions today, hitting a new high. The short - term support is raised to the 4725 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to hold long positions and set the stop - profit at 4725 [34] (11) Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The weak coal price in the cost side and the continuous inventory increase in ports, along with weakening demand, do not provide a driving force for a significant reversal [36] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level structure is unclear. It rebounded with a reduction in positions today. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [36] (12) Plastic - Logic: Similar to PP, the fundamentals of the olefin industry chain where plastic belongs are weak. It is only suitable for the chemical configuration logic in the medium - term hedging of long aromatics and short olefins [39] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level downward structure is being challenged. It rebounded with a reduction in positions today, breaking through the short - term pressure at 6545. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [39] (13) Soda Ash - Logic: The inventory pressure of soda ash has weakened slightly, but the over - supply pattern remains, and there is no significant upward driving force without an expected increase in terminal demand [40] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows an upward structure. It rebounded slightly near the support level today. The short - term support is at the 1170 level, and the short - term upward structure remains intact. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [40] (14) Caustic Soda - Logic: Caustic soda has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply - demand driving force is downward, but there is no space for chasing short positions [42] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level structure is unclear. It rebounded with a reduction in positions today. Pay attention to the 15 - minute downward structure, and the 15 - minute pressure is at the 2260 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [42]

Group 1 - The global financial market has entered a period of volatility driven by geopolitical factors as 2026 begins, with FXGT indicating that gold is at a critical "momentum transition" window, closely linked to the oil market in the short term [1][3] - Geopolitical events are reshaping market risk preferences and directly altering the pricing logic of energy and safe-haven assets, although the fundamental logic supporting a long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact despite potential technical pullbacks in January [1][3] - In 2025, the gold market delivered impressive results, with FXGT noting that even a slight price correction at year-end should be viewed as a self-digestion of bullish forces, clearing overheated market sentiments and paving the way for a new upward movement in 2026 [1][3] Group 2 - On the macroeconomic front, the Federal Reserve's policy shift remains a core driving force, with FXGT suggesting that the nomination of new Fed leadership by the White House will be a key variable influencing interest rate direction [2][4] - The uncertainty surrounding new policy directions enhances gold's role as a tool against policy risks, while the U.S. efforts to solidify the "petrodollar" position further highlight gold's hedging role amid fluctuations in the dollar credit system [2][4] - Technical analysis indicates that both gold and silver are showing signs of fatigue after previous strong rallies, with FXGT observing that weekly momentum indicators suggest the market has entered a consumptive top area, likely leading to a period of consolidation rather than a direct breakout [2][4]

昨日1月5日（星期一），黄金早盘高开延续上涨，到欧盘上涨至4440附近承压回落，美盘初下跌至4396企稳继续上涨，最高上涨4456附近，尾盘维持在高位 横盘震荡，日线收出一根阳线。 一、基本面 1、核心事件：美国突袭委内瑞拉引发地缘政治风暴 2026年1月3日，美国特种部队突袭委内瑞拉，逮捕总统马杜罗及其妻子，随后于1月5日将其押解至纽约联邦法院，面临毒品恐怖主义、可卡因进口共谋等重 罪指控；特朗普称行动旨在打击贩毒网络、开放委国石油资源，还警告不配合将扩大打击范围。 2025年黄金已因地缘热点与美联储宽松周期上涨64%；2026年市场普遍预计美联储至少降息两次，降低黄金持有机会成本，叠加美元指数回落、美国制造业 数据低迷强化宽松逻辑，且央行持续购金、ETF资金流入构筑长期支撑。 3、今日关注 21:00，2027年FOMC票委、里奇蒙联储主席巴尔金发表讲话；22:45，美国12月标普全球服务业PMI终值；待定，"科技春晚"2026年消费电子展（CES）将于 1月6-9日在拉斯维加斯举行。 二、技术面 1、日线级别：黄金上周一大幅下挫收阴后，后半周维持在4400下方震荡。受周末地缘政治因素提振，金价于周一强势 ...

1月6日，国内期市能化板块多数飘红。其中，PVC期货主力合约开盘报4788.00元/吨，今日盘中高位震 荡运行；截至午间收盘，PVC主力最高触及4910.00元，下方探低4785.00元，涨幅达2.52%。 目前来看，PVC行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于PVC后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 国投安信期货指出，检修规模减弱，市场供应环比回升。下游开工下滑，逢低补货为主；出口维持刚 需，整体需求低迷。生产企业去库，社会库存压力较大。短期关注陕西政策是否会对电石电价造成影 响，关注PVC何时供给实质性收缩，价格或有强有力上涨。 恒泰期货分析称，国内PVC供需基本面虽然略有改善，但是仍处于供大于求格局，当前边际企业开工不 高，但是一体化企业开工高位，下游处于传统需求淡季，受房地产低迷影响，下游开工提低位，元旦假 期放假企业仍较多，因此需求继续走低，基本面看供需压力犹存。但宏观政策为PVC市场注入信心，深 入整治"内卷式"竞争，以及对于二手房税率的调整均造成资金方面看多情绪，PVC期货盘面带动现货价 格同步走高。另外元旦期间地缘政治再起波澜，但其下游延伸以及对产品的影响仍然有待评估，节后首 个工 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Bearish rebound [1] - L: Bearish rebound [1] - PP: Bearish rebound [1] - PVC: Bullish with an upward bias [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [2] - MEG: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Bearish rebound [6] - Glass: Bearish rebound [6] - Soda Ash: Bearish continuation [6] Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical uncertainties in South America and the Middle East have increased, leading to a short - term rebound in oil prices. However, the overall situation of crude oil supply surplus remains unchanged, and prices are under long - term pressure. Other energy - related products are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand relationship, and inventory, showing different trends [1][9]. - For chemical products, the supply - demand relationship, cost support, and device operation status are the main factors affecting their prices. Some products are expected to have short - term rebounds, while others are in a weak or bearish trend [1][2]. Summaries According to Different Categories Crude Oil - Market Performance: Overnight international oil prices slightly declined. WTI dropped 0.22%, Brent fell 0.26%, and SC rose 0.69%. The latest prices of WTI, Brent, and SC are $57.95/barrel, $61.33/barrel, and 438.6 yuan/barrel respectively [7][8]. - Fundamental Logic: Geopolitical factors in South America and the Middle East have led to a short - term rise in oil prices, but the core issue of supply surplus in the off - season remains. Global crude oil inventories are increasing, and US crude oil and refined product inventories are also accumulating [9]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions and buy call options for risk control. Pay attention to the range of SC [425 - 435] [11]. LPG - Market Performance: On January 5th, the PG main contract closed at 4159 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China increased [14]. - Fundamental Logic: Saudi Arabia raised the latest CP contract price, which short - term boosted the gas price. In the long - term, it is anchored to oil prices and is under pressure. Supply has increased, and downstream chemical demand has resilience [15]. - Strategy Recommendation: Continue to hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [4150 - 4250] [16]. L - Market Performance: The L05 contract price decreased slightly. The L05 basis was - 69 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was - 47 yuan/ton [18][19]. - Fundamental Logic: It will fluctuate strongly in the short - term following the cost, but weak expectations limit the rebound height. Supply is sufficient, and there is pressure to reduce inventory in the future [20]. - Attention Range: L [6450 - 6600] [20] PP - Market Performance: The PP05 contract price decreased slightly. The PP05 basis was - 77 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 25 yuan/ton [22][23]. - Fundamental Logic: It will fluctuate strongly in the short - term following the oil price. The supply - demand relationship is weak, and the short - term supply pressure is relieved. Pay attention to the dynamics of PDH devices [24]. - Attention Range: PP [6300 - 6450] [24] PVC - Market Performance: The V05 contract price decreased slightly. The V05 basis was - 284 yuan/ton, the V59 spread was - 131 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts was 108477 [26][27]. - Fundamental Logic: Strong expectations dominate the short - term trend. The fundamental situation is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. Cost support has strengthened, increasing the expectation of future device maintenance. Pay attention to inventory changes [28]. - Attention Range: V [4800 - 4950] [28] PTA - Market Performance: The TA05 contract price decreased. The TA05 basis was - 13 yuan/ton, and the TA5 - 9 spread was 100 yuan/ton [29]. - Fundamental Logic: Valuation is not low, and the supply - demand relationship is relatively tight in the short - term. Some devices have been restored, but the overall maintenance intensity is high. Downstream demand is good but expected to weaken. Pay attention to the negative feedback from the demand side [30]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on the callback for the 05 contract. TA05 [5070 - 5150] [31] MEG - Market Performance: The EG05 contract price decreased. The EG05 basis was - 125 yuan/ton, and the EG5 - 9 spread was - 93 yuan/ton [32]. - Fundamental Logic: Valuation is low, and there is a lack of upward momentum. The domestic device load has increased, demand is expected to weaken, and port inventories are rising. It will fluctuate following the cost in the short - term [33]. - Strategy Recommendation: Close short positions and pay attention to the opportunity to short on the rebound. EG05 [3720 - 3800] [34] Methanol - Market Performance: The main contract decreased in position and increased in price. The East China basis and the 1 - 5 spread strengthened [37]. - Fundamental Logic: Valuation is not low. Supply pressure still exists, and demand has weakened slightly. The supply - demand relationship is slightly loose, but the downside space is limited [37]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on the callback for the methanol 05 contract. MA05 [2220 - 2280] [39] Urea - Market Performance: The urea main contract price was 1749 yuan/ton, and the Shandong small - particle basis was - 39 yuan/ton [43]. - Fundamental Logic: The supply pressure is expected to increase in mid - January. Demand has weakened recently, and the social inventory is still at a relatively high level. However, there is an arbitrage window between domestic and foreign markets and the expectation of spring fertilizer use [42][43]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the callback for the 05 contract. UR05 [1730 - 1760] [44] Natural Gas - Market Performance: On January 5th, the NG main contract closed at $3.618/MMBtu, a decrease of 1.84% [46]. - Fundamental Logic: The demand side is in the consumption peak season, but the recent mild weather in the US has reduced the demand support for gas prices. The supply side is relatively abundant, and gas prices are under pressure [47]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the range of NG [3.250 - 3.680] [47] Asphalt - Market Performance: On December 31st, the BU main contract closed at 3022 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.53%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China changed [50]. - Fundamental Logic: Geopolitical factors in South America have led to an expected shortage of raw materials. Supply has decreased in January 2026, and demand has increased slightly. Inventory has increased [51]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short positions should be cautious about risks. Pay attention to the range of BU [3100 - 3250] [52] Glass - Market Performance: The FG05 contract price decreased slightly. The FG05 basis was - 81 yuan/ton, the FG59 spread was - 102 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts was 1676 [54][55]. - Fundamental Logic: Factory inventory has changed from increasing to decreasing. Short - term cold - repair expectations support the price, but long - term weak demand limits the rebound height [56]. - Attention Range: FG [1070 - 1120] [56] Soda Ash - Market Performance: The SA05 contract price decreased. The SA05 basis was - 37 yuan/ton, the SA59 spread was - 72 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts was 4776 [58][59]. - Fundamental Logic: The continuous decline of float glass daily melting has led to insufficient demand support for heavy soda ash. Supply is expected to be loose in the long - term [60]. - Attention Range: SA [1150 - 1200] [60]

美股主要指数在周一午盘时段延续上涨态势，其中道琼斯工业平均指数涨幅超过700点，能源类股票普 遍上扬。市场参与者正密切关注上周末美国对委内瑞拉采取军事行动并控制该国领导人后的地缘政治形 势发展。 作者：观察君 在地缘政治事件背景下，国际原油价格反应相对平淡，部分市场观点认为此次行动短期内不会引发大规 模扰乱市场的冲突。美国能源部长克里斯·赖特据悉计划本周与石油行业高管会面，商讨重振委内瑞拉 能源产业的议题。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 本文源自：市场资讯 根据公开信息，美国总统特朗普此前宣布美国将"管理"委内瑞拉，并反复强调该国的石油资源是其核心 政策目标。他在海湖庄园举行的新闻发布会上表示，将让美国大型石油公司投入资金用于修复委内瑞拉 破败的石油基础设施。市场认为，这一表态可能使部分能源企业从潜在的重建工作中受益，从而推动了 能源板块的普遍走高。 委内瑞拉是全球石油储量最丰富的国家，但其石油产业因长期投资不足和美国制裁，产量已从历史高位 大幅下滑。雪佛龙是目前唯一仍在委内瑞拉运营油田的美国大型石油企业。该公司在一份声明中表示， 将继续不间断地运 ...

打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 阿塞拜疆总统阿利耶夫周一表示，该国国家石油基金通过增持黄金已实现超过 100亿美元 的收益。去 年，阿塞拜疆做出战略决策，在地缘政治局势变化的背景下大幅增加黄金储备，基于对金价大幅上涨的 预期。阿利耶夫指出，地缘政治事件的发展态势清晰可见，他坚信黄金价格会持续攀升，而事实证明金 价确实显著上涨。 今日周二（1月6日）亚盘时段，COMEX黄金期货最新报价4470.60美元/盎司，较前一交易日上涨10.50 美元，涨幅0.24%，成功站稳4500美元/盎司关口。当日开盘价4459.80美元/盎司，最高价4472.00美元/盎 司，最低价4437.90美元/盎司。 另一方面，美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)数据显示，截至12月30日当周，COMEX黄金投机者将净多 头头寸减少 10,668手，至 126,873手，显示部分投机资金在高位选择获利了结。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 2月黄金期货（COMEX GC.1）在2026年1月上旬延续强势震荡格局，价格围绕4450–4470美元/盎司运 行，1月5日收报4459.70美元，日内涨幅3%。技术面显示，多头下一关键目标 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The aluminum market is experiencing a bullish trend driven by rising stock markets and oil prices, with LME aluminum prices increasing by 2.28% to $3,090 per ton [1][2] - The Shanghai aluminum market is also seeing significant gains, with the main contract closing at 24,165 yuan per ton, up 2.57% [1] - The recent geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S. military action in Venezuela, have heightened market risk aversion and boosted demand for precious metals like gold, which rose nearly 3% [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is limited, while demand is weakening due to seasonal factors and high aluminum prices, leading to a decline in operating rates among downstream processing enterprises [3] - As of January 5, China's major market electrolytic aluminum inventory increased by 65,000 tons to 703,000 tons, indicating growing fundamental pressure on aluminum prices [3] - Despite the increase in inventory, overall stock levels remain historically low, and external market strength may support a continued upward trend in aluminum prices [3] Group 3: Policy and Economic Factors - The Chinese government has implemented favorable macroeconomic policies, including the early issuance of 62.5 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to stimulate consumer demand during peak seasons [2] - These policy measures are expected to enhance market optimism and support the aluminum market amid rising prices and speculative trading [2]