比特币突破107,000美元创新高，以太坊稳守2,500美元，机构资金持续流入 1. 当前价格走势 2. 市场催化因素与链上数据 3.1 爆仓金额与多空比 3.2 资金费率变化 资金费率上升：比特币永续合约资金费率保持在正值区间，反映多头情绪占据主导，投资者愿意 支付溢价维持多头仓位。 4. 操作策略 4.1 突破后追涨策略 4.2 回调买入策略 突破历史高点：BTC现报约107,170美元（HTX实时数据），较昨日上涨0.81%，日内波动区间为 106,688-107,222美元。价格成功突破107,000美元关口，创下历史新高，CoinDesk比特币指数上涨 1.41%至107,060.35美元。这一突破具有重要技术意义，为进一步上行打开空间。 技术形态分析：日线图上，价格成功突破上升通道上轨，成交量较昨日有所增加。106,600美元处 的供应集群阻力已被有效突破，表明市场买盘力量强劲。根据技术指标，比特币RSI指标已进入 超买区域，但在强势突破行情中，超买状态可能会持续一段时间。 美国SEC监管政策延续：SEC主席Paul Atkins于4月21日正式就职，并表示将推动加密资产相关规 则草案制定，多位S ...

周二（5月20日）因美联储官员对经济发表了更为谨慎的言论，同时交易员们期待着美国与日本即将举行的会谈，其中可能包括作为贸易协议一部分的汇率 讨论。美元指数继续走软，并跌至100大关附近，最终收跌0.34%，报100.02。基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.491%；对货币政策更敏感的两年期美债收益率 收报3.977%。受益于市场仍然存在一定程度的不确定性，现货黄金先跌后涨，在欧盘时段开启涨势，并于美盘加速上行，日内大涨近2%，逼近3300美元大 关，最终收涨1.84%，报3289.98美元/盎司。周三，因美媒报道称以色列或准备袭击伊朗的核设施，黄金一度升破3300美元大关。 尽管近期黄金价格自4月创下的每盎司3,500美元历史高位大幅回调，但中长期支撑因素依旧稳固。从中长期来看，黄金仍是"买入并持有"的优质资产，尤其 在当前全球不确定性加剧的背景下。尽管美联储推迟降息且美国经济衰退风险降低，但市场预期美联储将在9月开始降息，这将进一步提升黄金的吸引力。 黄金上周四下探3120关口后迅速反弹回升逾100美元，随后震荡调整，周二大幅上涨逼近3300美元关口，目前多头走势偏强，周三早间一度上破3300美元关 口，日线 ...

研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F3082507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 度陷入僵局，未来经济预期摇摆不定，金银比中长期中枢上移的背景下，金银价走势相关性下行，白银或 维持震荡偏弱运行。短期内，贵金属市场或维持区间震荡格局，关注后续关税谈判进展以及美联储官员最 免责声明 新发言。操作上建议，暂时观望为主，沪金2508合约关注区间：730-770元/克；沪银2508合约关注区间： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 7800-8200元/千克。COMEX黄金期货关注区间：3200-3260美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货关注区间：31.20- 32.80美元/盎司。 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 | | | 贵金属产业日报 2025-05-20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/ ...

黄金震荡等方向，原油反弹到位做空不变！ 震荡是最考验人的时候，过早过晚都不太行，只有刚刚好，才能恰到好处，否则就会很受伤。周末随着穆迪下调美国信用等级，避险 情绪再度回升，加上美国近期经济数据表现不佳，信用等级下降的主要原因就是债务上升，同时利息高于历史水平，所以加剧了美联 储降息的预期，但是美联储官员以及特朗普的态度乐观， 从而导致市场情绪反复多变，黄金走势上也非常反复，上个交易日高开高走 之后再度大幅回落最低触及3206一线一线如期企稳反弹，我们跟大家分享的3207一线多单也是非常精准兑现到了3240目标位，日内的 话关注3240附近压力情况，下方关注3200关口支撑，短期的收敛三角形整理再度进入末端，等待方向选择，前期中线多单按照计划继 续持仓等待，日内短线的话回踩先继续多，关注压力突破情况，个人更加看好向上突破！ 原油方面，美伊谈判目前陷入僵局，市场预期有谈判破裂的可能性，伊朗最后的原则始终无法得到美国同意，短期给市场一定炒作空 间，但是大环境宽松预期以及需求担忧的压力存在，所以导致市场情绪谨慎，上涨的空间也非常有限，技术面上看目前下行趋势依旧 保持，下行趋势线的压力始终没破，交易思路上继续保持反弹空 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The total trading volume of the A-shares reached 6.33 trillion CNY, an increase from the previous week[8] - The turnover rate rose to 7.26%, indicating increased trading activity[8] - The market experienced a net outflow of 170.93 billion CNY, reflecting weakened liquidity[8] Group 2: Fund Flows and Financing - The net inflow of margin financing was 24.43 billion CNY, accounting for 8.92% of the total A-share trading volume[23] - The IPO financing scale was 1.3 billion CNY, while the refinancing scale was 4.27 billion CNY[30] - The issuance of equity funds decreased to 4.754 billion CNY, down from the previous week[19] Group 3: Bond Market and Interest Rates - The net withdrawal of funds from the open market was 350.1 billion CNY[10] - The yield on 10-year government bonds increased by 5 basis points, while the 1-year yield rose by 3 basis points, leading to an expansion of the yield curve[10] - The market anticipates an 88.2% probability that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in June[10] Group 4: Sector Performance - The top five sectors for fund accumulation included non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, automobiles, banks, and electric equipment[20] - The sectors with the largest reductions in holdings were computers, electronics, real estate, media, and household appliances[21] - Industrial capital saw a reduction of 5.277 billion CNY, with coal, environmental protection, and agriculture being the top sectors for accumulation[31]

贵金属日报：持续震荡 中长期维持看涨 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年5月20日 【行情回顾】 周一贵金属价格窄幅震荡，周边美指回落，10Y美债收益率冲高回落，欧美股整体微涨，穆迪下调美主 权评级影响有限。国内黄金ETF昨日仍现流出，其中华安黄金ETF份额日减414万份至81.5亿份，回升至 80.07亿份，反应国内获利盘仍在回吐，到降幅有所放缓。最终黄金2506合约收报3232.2美元/盎司， +1.41%；美白银2507合约收报于32.495美元/盎司，+0.44%。 SHFE黄金2508主力合约收报755.86元/ 克，+0.53%；SHFE白银2506合约收8133元/千克，+0.35% 【降息预期与基金持仓】 3150，3100，强支撑与2950-3000区域；伦敦银支撑31.6-32区域，阻力33.3，33.7，如突破可看高至 34，34.5。我们仍将短线回调视为中长期做多机会，但近期或维震荡为主。 贵金属期现价格表 据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为91.4%，降息25个基点的概率为 8.6%；美联 ...

Group 1 - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from "Aaa" to "Aa1" due to concerns over the growing $36 trillion debt, becoming the last of the three major credit rating agencies to do so [3] - The downgrade has raised concerns in the market, with analysts noting that it has brought many existing worries back into focus [3] - Major banks, including Bank of America and JPMorgan, saw their deposit ratings downgraded by Moody's, citing the weakened government support for these banks following the sovereign rating downgrade [4] Group 2 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 137.33 points, or 0.32%, closing at 42,792.07 points, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 saw minor increases [2] - Long-term U.S. Treasury yields fluctuated, with the 10-year yield reaching a high of 4.52% before settling at 4.47% [4] - Notable stock movements included a 1% increase in Microsoft shares, while Apple and Tesla saw declines of 1.1% and 2.2%, respectively [5]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of U.S.-China tariff adjustments on various markets and assets, particularly focusing on the implications for the Chinese economy and U.S. financial markets. Core Points and Arguments - **Tariff Adjustments and Economic Implications** The U.S.-China tariff adjustments reflect a consensus on the unsustainability of high tariffs, with the U.S. needing to alleviate supply shocks to control inflation and extend tariff exemptions to replenish inventories, thereby buying time for negotiations [1][4] The recent tariff reduction has led to a decrease in the overall impact on China's GDP to about 1% and a potential reduction in corporate profit drag to around 5% [2][17] - **Market Reactions and Asset Performance** Following the tariff adjustments, assets such as Bitcoin, gold, and markets in the Eurozone and Japan have performed well, with India emerging as a strong alternative to Chinese assets [6][7] The performance of gold and the U.S. dollar has been volatile, suggesting a cautious approach to short-term trading strategies, with a recommendation for a dollar-cost averaging strategy instead [13] - **Global Economic Growth and Commodity Prices** Tariffs may hinder global growth, leading to commodity price fluctuations and affecting the credibility of the U.S. dollar, which in turn impacts market confidence [8] The risk of stagflation in the U.S. economy has been postponed but not eliminated, with high tariffs contributing to supply-side inflation pressures that prevent the Federal Reserve from lowering interest rates [9] - **Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations** Expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts are suppressed by high tariffs, but a reduction in tariffs could increase the likelihood of small rate cuts [10] Current U.S. inflation is around 4%, providing some room for potential rate cuts, although significant downward adjustments are not anticipated [10] - **U.S. Stock Market Performance** Earnings drag on U.S. stocks has lessened, with the anticipated impact now around 5%, supported by strong capital expenditures from leading tech companies [12] The Nasdaq's valuation has recovered to approximately 21 times earnings, with the S&P 500 potentially reaching 5,900 to 6,000 points if tariff negotiations progress positively [12] - **Long-term Economic Trends in China** China's economic cycle is characterized by prolonged downward pressure and significant price challenges, with a need for monetary and fiscal policy interventions over an average of five years following the peak of the financial real estate cycle [21][22] The adjustment in asset prices in China is expected to be deeper and last longer compared to other countries, with a notable shift in focus towards improving labor productivity and production efficiency [24][25] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Impact of Tariffs on Specific Industries** The high tariffs previously imposed on certain industries have led to a significant reduction in exports to the U.S., with companies having to adjust their supply chains and production strategies accordingly [40][42] The recovery of Chinese factories in exporting to the U.S. will depend on price adjustments and the transmission of tariff impacts [41] - **Investment Strategies and Market Sentiment** The sentiment in the market has been influenced by the recent tariff changes, with a noted shift in capital flows back to original markets rather than emerging markets like China [2][14] The government has planned to issue 2.1 trillion in bonds to address potential issues arising from private credit weakness, indicating a proactive approach to stabilize the economy [18] - **Sector-Specific Observations** Historical data suggests that sectors such as real estate and industrial materials tend to perform well when emerging from financial real estate cycles, providing a framework for investors to strategize [26] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the implications of U.S.-China tariff adjustments on various economic and market dynamics.

2012 31 2025-05-19 F3014717 Z0013223 01 PART ONE 主要观点 | 影响因素 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 本周国内大宗商品震荡反弹，其中，工业品震荡反弹，农产品小幅走弱。主因一是，中美在日内瓦贸易会谈后发表联合声明，互相削减了大幅关税，刺激市场情绪 | | | 改善；二是，，一揽子金融政策将加快落实，提振市场信心，改善市场风险偏好；三是，美国4月通胀略低于预期，美联储降息预期再度升温。 | | 海外 | 1）当地时间5月12日，中美在日内瓦贸易会谈后发表联合声明，在90天内大幅削减高关税，但美方仍保留了2025年内对华加征的20%芬太尼关税和10%的对等关 | | | 税。然而即便美国与英国达成关税协议、与中国发布联合声明，但据耶鲁大学实验室测算，截至5月12日，2025年迄今的关税相当于美国平均有效关税税率提高了 | | | 15.4个百分点至17.8%(替代前)，仍是自1934年以来的最高水平。后续关注美国关税政策是否会有反复，例如2018年12月，中美元首在阿根廷G20峰会期间会晤， | | | 同意停止升级关税措施，而 201 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures rose first and then fell. The significant reduction of Sino - US tariffs, cooling US inflation, and lower - than - expected retail growth increased the expectation of a Fed rate cut, causing the US dollar to decline, which was favorable for the rebound of the non - ferrous sector. However, Moody's downgraded the US credit rating, reigniting macro - concerns. China's April financial data was mixed, with credit failing to continue improving and its structure weakening, indicating insufficient endogenous economic momentum [3][10]. - Since mid - April, zinc ingot imports have started, with many importers reducing orders. Recently, imported and bonded area supplies have flowed in for replenishment, and the inflow is expected to be more obvious in the second half of the month. In May, refineries had concentrated maintenance in the first half of the month, but many resumed production in the second half. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the monthly supply of refined zinc was basically flat compared with the previous month, and the overall supply - side pressure remained unrelieved [4][10]. - In terms of demand, the performance of special towers remained good, while photovoltaic orders weakened. Enterprises' export orders were expected to improve but needed time. The operating rate of galvanized enterprises increased slightly; the export orders of small hardware improved without obvious rush - to - export behavior, and combined with the resumption of some enterprises, the operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy increased; rubber and electronic - grade orders declined, while feed - grade orders improved. Export enterprises remained cautious, and the operating rate of zinc oxide increased slightly month - on - month [4][10]. - Overall, the optimistic sentiment about tariffs has been digested, and Moody's downgraded the US credit rating, causing the market sentiment to return to caution. With the launch of new domestic smelting projects, the supply continued to increase. Meanwhile, with the supplement of imported zinc and the end of the consumption peak season, the expectation of weak fundamentals due to increasing supply and weak demand remained unchanged. In the short term, the cooling of market risk appetite and insufficient fundamental support are expected to lead to a weak and volatile trend in zinc prices [4][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | May 9th | May 16th | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Zinc | 22190 | 22500 | 310 | Yuan/ton | | LME Zinc | 2655.5 | 2726 | 70.5 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 8.36 | 8.25 | - 0.10 | | | SHFE Inventory | 47102 | 46351 | - 751 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 170325 | 165175 | - 5150 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 8.33 | 8.63 | 0.3 | Ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | 500 | 250 | - 250 | Yuan/ton | [5] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the main contract ZN2506 of Shanghai zinc futures rose first and then fell. The larger - than - expected reduction of Sino - US tariffs alleviated concerns about the US economic recession and China's export pressure, and the market sentiment recovered, leading to a general rise in non - ferrous metals. However, the zinc price was under pressure and adjusted after hitting the 40 - day moving average, finally closing at 22500 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.4%. It was weak and volatile on Friday night. LME zinc continued to rebound in the first half of the week and fluctuated and consolidated in the second half, finally closing at 2686 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.15% [6]. - In the spot market, as of May 16th, the mainstream transaction price of Shanghai 0 zinc was concentrated between 22765 - 22910 yuan/ton, with a premium of 250 - 270 yuan/ton over 2506. SMC had a premium of 260 yuan/ton over 2506, and Kazakh zinc had a premium of 180 yuan/ton over 2506. In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at around 22775 - 22900 yuan/ton, with a premium of 265 yuan/ton over the 2506 contract and a premium of 40 yuan/ton over the Shanghai spot. In Guangdong, the mainstream 0 zinc was traded at 22640 - 22700 yuan/ton, with a premium of 305 yuan/ton over the 2507 contract and a discount of 40 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference widened. In the Tianjin market, the mainstream 0 zinc ingots were traded at 22720 - 22940 yuan/ton, and the common 0 zinc was quoted at a premium of 200 - 300 yuan/ton over the 2506 contract, with Tianjin at par with Shanghai. Overall, as the zinc price rebounded, the downstream purchasing sentiment weakened. Meanwhile, with the inflow of imported zinc ingots and improved supply, holders continued to lower the premium quotes to actively sell, but the actual spot transactions were relatively light [7]. - In terms of inventory, as of May 16th, the LME zinc ingot inventory was 165175 tons, a weekly decrease of 5150 tons. The SHFE inventory was 46351 tons, a decrease of 751 tons from the previous week. As of May 15th, the social inventory was 8.63 million tons, an increase of 0.08 million tons from Monday and an increase of 0.3 million tons from the previous week. Among them, the inventory in Guangdong decreased due to less arrival and downstream pick - up after low - price purchases in the early stage; the inventory in Tianjin increased as downstream buyers were cautious due to high prices; the inventory in Shanghai changed little; and the inventory in Zhejiang increased significantly due to the arrival of imported zinc ingots [8]. - In the macro aspect, US inflation cooled down. The April CPI was 2.3% year - on - year, the lowest level since February 2021. The core CPI increased by 2.8% year - on - year, the lowest rate since the inflation outbreak in the spring of 2021. The US April PPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, lower than expected, and decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the largest decline in five years. The US April retail sales increased by 0.1% month - on - month, slightly exceeding expectations but significantly weaker than the previous value, indicating weak consumer spending. Fed Chairman Powell said that the Fed was considering adjusting the core content of the monetary policy guidance framework to cope with major changes in inflation and interest rate prospects after the 2020 pandemic. Fed Vice - Chairman Jefferson said that tariffs and related uncertainties might lead to slower economic growth and rising inflation this year, but the monetary policy was ready to respond as needed. In terms of tariffs, the joint statement of the Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks was released. Both sides agreed to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels. The US cancelled a total of 91% of the additional tariffs, and China correspondingly cancelled 91% of the counter - tariffs; the US suspended the implementation of 24% of the "reciprocal tariffs", and China also correspondingly suspended the implementation of 24% of the counter - tariffs. China's new RMB loans in April were 280 billion yuan, the previous value was 3.64 trillion yuan, the expected value was 764.4 billion yuan, and the value of the same period last year was 730 billion yuan; the new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, the previous value was 5.89 trillion yuan, the expected value was 1.26 trillion yuan, and the value of the same period last year was - 65.8 billion yuan; the stock social financing growth rate was 8.7%, the previous value was 8.4%; M2 increased by 8% year - on - year, the expected value was 7.5%, and the previous value was 7%; M1 increased by 1.5% year - on - year, the expected value was 3%, and the previous value was 1.6% [8][9]. 3.3 Industry News - As of the week of May 16th, the weekly processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc concentrates were reported at 3500 yuan/metal ton and 45 US dollars/dry ton respectively, remaining flat month - on - month for domestic and increasing by 5 US dollars/dry ton for foreign [11]. - Kyzyl - Tashtyg Mine, operated by Longxin Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Zijin Mining Group in the Tuva Republic of Russia, is facing financial difficulties due to the escalation of international sanctions and limited Sino - Russian financial cooperation and plans to suspend operations. Zijin Mining owns 70% of the mine, which produced approximately 71300 tons of zinc concentrate and approximately 4750 tons of lead concentrate in 2024 [11][12]. - New Century's zinc concentrate production in Q1 2025 was 30000 tons. It performed excellently in Q1 2025, reducing the impact of the rainy season through effective resilience measures, with a 50% increase compared to the weather - affected production in 2024. Zijin Mining's mineral zinc production in Q1 2025 was 88215 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10% and a month - on - month decrease of 9% [12]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including the price trend charts of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc, the internal and external price ratio, spot premium and discount, LME premium and discount, inventory data of SHFE, LME, social and bonded areas, domestic and foreign zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profit and loss, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profit, refined zinc net import, and the operating rate of downstream primary enterprises [14][15][17].