摘要周二(1月6日)欧洲时段，现货黄金在多重利好支撑下，一度冲高至一周峰值4474.11美元/盎司，随 后因市场逢高抛售回落，现交投于4455美元附近。美军打击委内瑞拉、沙特与阿联酋政治紧张、伊朗动 荡及俄乌冲突持续，推高地缘政治风险并为金价注入风险溢价。同时，美联储鸽派预期升温，进一步巩 固了黄金的上涨势头。 【黄金技术分析】 从技术面来看，金价突破100小时简单移动平均线(SMA，4375.38)，这一突破可视为多头的重要催化信 号。 在小时图中，移动平均收敛散度指标(MACD)柱状线已由负转正并小幅抬升，MACD线略高于零轴附近 的信号线，显示上涨动能正在增强。 与此同时，相对强弱指数(RSI)位于60附近，进一步印证了当前稳健的上涨动力。 由于黄金价格稳居上行的100小时SMA上方，预计日内回调幅度有限，近期走势仍偏向积极。 周二(1月6日)欧洲时段，现货黄金在多重利好支撑下，一度冲高至一周峰值4474.11美元/盎司，随后因 市场逢高抛售回落，现交投于4455美元附近。美军打击委内瑞拉、沙特与阿联酋政治紧张、伊朗动荡及 俄乌冲突持续，推高地缘政治风险并为金价注入风险溢价。同时，美联储鸽派预期升温，进 ...

技术面显示支撑稳健 经济数据分化，但对黄金多头影响有限 近期美国经济数据表现冷热不一。S&P Global制造业PMI维持扩张，而ISM制造业PMI显示收缩。数据 分化未改变市场对美联储宽松政策的预期，投资者对黄金保持看多态度，支撑价格维持高位。 非农就业数据是市场关注核心 本周五美国非农就业数据仍是市场短期焦点。数据公布可能对黄金价格形成方向性推动。高位小幅回落 更多属于技术整理，而非趋势逆转。投资者应关注数据公布后的价格变化，以把握短期交易机会。 UNForex 1月6日讯（分析师Stephen）周二欧洲早盘，黄金价格在触及一周高点后小幅回落，目前仍稳 守在 4450美元上方。此次回落主要源于技术性获利了结，而非趋势性疲软。整体多头格局仍然稳固， 短期震荡属于正常调整。 地缘政治风险持续支撑金价 全球地缘政治紧张局势仍未缓解，南美潜在军事冲突、中东地区摩擦以及俄乌战争持续，使得黄金避险 属性得到强化。资金流入避险资产，为高位震荡中的黄金提供稳定支撑。 美联储降息预期利好非收益资产 投资者预计美联储将在2026年内实施至少两次降息。低利率环境降低持有黄金的机会成本，使黄金价格 受益明显。即便短期内美元走势平 ...

北京时间1月6日15:34，金投网行情中心数据显示：沪银主力最新报19452.00元/千克，日内涨幅达 7.06%，今日开盘价18126.00元/千克，最高价19714.00元/千克，最低价18082.00元/千克，成交量 1929943.00手，上一交易日沪银主力收盘于18169.00，基差为311。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 外盘纽约期银突破79美元/盎司，日内涨超3%，COMEX白银价格最新报78.43美元/盎司，日内涨幅达 2.51%，上一交易日收盘于76.51美元/盎司，今日开盘价76.55美元/盎司，最高价79.29美元/盎司，最低 价75.70美元/盎司，成交量29881.00手。 沪银主力日线MACD指标释放看多信号，KDJ指标释放看空信号，RSI释放看空信号。 comex白银日线MACD指标释放看多信号，KDJ指标释放看空信号，RSI释放看空信号。 受美联储官员鸽派言论提振降息预期，以及委内瑞拉局势紧张推升避险需求的双重影响，今日白银价格 短线持续走高，沪银主力合约日内一度暴涨8.00%，报19630.00元/千克。 市场分析认为，美联储官员关于通胀回落和失业率风险的言论，增加了市场 ...

1月6日，周二（北京时间1月6日）亚市早盘，现货黄金先跌后涨，目前交投于4460美元附近。本周一开 盘，现货黄金价格暴涨至一周高点，白银、铂金等贵金属也全线走强；主因是美国空袭委内瑞拉并抓获 委内瑞拉总统马杜罗之后，避险需求激增。在美国对委内瑞拉发动打击后，地缘政治紧张局势升级，推 动避险资金流入黄金。此外，受疲软的美国ISM制造业PMI影响，黄金价格也随之走高。 基本消息面： 美股周一全线上涨，市场成交量较大，美国各交易所累计成交191亿股，高于过去20个交易日的日均成 交量159亿股。道琼斯工业指数创下历史新高这主要得益于金融和能源板块的强劲表现，而能源股的上 涨与美国近期对委内瑞拉采取的军事行动直接相关。标普500能源指数上涨2.7%，达到2025年3月以来 的最高水平，其中埃克森美孚和雪佛龙股价均大幅上涨。金融板块同样表现抢眼，标普500金融指数大 涨2.2%，高盛和摩根大通涨幅均超过3%，并创下股价新高。 地缘政治上。特朗普政策不确定性，如果美委的事情就这样结束了，那么下一步就是伊朗；中东方面， 前期伊朗自身问题也很大，一众小弟全被放弃，导致集体磨平；美国总统特朗普还暗示可能进一步采取 行动（如格陵 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - The next Federal Reserve chair is expected to lower interest rate cut expectations, impacting market sentiment positively[2] - The market anticipates a pause in rate cuts during the January FOMC meeting, with a focus on maintaining the current target rate[11] - The 1-year Treasury yield decreased from 1.402% to 1.337%, a drop of 6 basis points, indicating a shift in short-term interest rate expectations[2] Group 2: Domestic Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index rose from 3888.6 to 3968.84, a 2.06% increase, driven by improved macro policies and a significant rise in the construction PMI[2] - The growth style index increased from 8331.69 to 8741.04, reflecting a 4.91% rise, supported by favorable liquidity conditions[2] - The construction PMI improved significantly, indicating a potential stabilization in investment and economic recovery[17] Group 3: Commodity and Currency Insights - Brent crude oil prices fell from $58.55 to $57.42 per barrel, a decrease of 1.93%, suggesting a bearish outlook on oil due to supply dynamics[2] - The US dollar index decreased from 99.44 to 98.27, a drop of 1.18%, reflecting a slight weakening of the dollar amid lower rate cut expectations[2] - The COMEX copper price increased from $5.19 to $5.649 per pound, an 8.84% rise, indicating strong demand amid supply constraints[2]

Group 1: Domestic Gold Prices - Domestic gold prices have seen a significant increase, with major brands like Chow Tai Fook, Chao Hong Ji, and Zhou Da Sheng all priced at 1390 yuan per gram, leading the market [1] - Shanghai China Gold has rebounded strongly to 1360 yuan per gram, moving away from its previous low, while the price gap between the highest (Cai Bai at 1358 yuan) and lowest has narrowed to 32 yuan per gram [1] - The overall price range in the market has clearly shifted upwards, with various brands showing consistent increases in their gold prices [1] Group 2: Platinum Prices - Platinum prices have also risen, surpassing 900 yuan per gram, with Chow Tai Fook's platinum jewelry priced at 905 yuan per gram, reflecting a 36 yuan increase [1] Group 3: Gold Recycling Prices - The gold recycling prices have continued to rise, with significant discrepancies among different brands; for instance, the recycling price for gold is 993.40 yuan per gram, while Cai Bai is at 969.60 yuan per gram [2] Group 4: International Gold Prices - The spot gold price opened high and reached a peak of 4455.39 USD per ounce, closing at 4448.09 USD per ounce, marking a 2.67% increase [4] - As of the latest update, spot gold is reported at 4462.73 USD per ounce, with a 0.33% increase [4] - The surge in gold prices is attributed to rising market risk aversion due to U.S. military actions in Venezuela and weak U.S. economic data, which has bolstered expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [4] - The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9, below market expectations, indicating a continued contraction in the manufacturing sector [4]

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.06 地缘局势增加供给不确定性 [Table_Industry] 有色金属 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 李鹏飞(分析师) | 010-83939783 | lipengfei2@gtht.com | S0880519080003 | | 魏雨迪(分析师) | 021-38674763 | weiyudi@gtht.com | S0880520010002 | | 刘小华(分析师) | 021-38038434 | liuxiaohua@gtht.com | S0880523120003 | | 王宏玉(分析师) | 021-38038343 | wanghongyu@gtht.com | S0880523060005 | | 梁琳(分析师) | 021-23185845 | lianglin@gtht.com | S0880525070014 | | 李阳(分析师) | 021-23185618 | liyang7@gtht.com | S088052 ...

来源：赛博AI实验室 本文基于以下微博话题的智搜结果生成 2026年1月5日，国际金价单日大涨近3%至4451.50美元/盎司，白银期货同步暴涨7.94%至76.657美元/盎 司，地缘冲突激化与美联储降息预期共振触发市场避险需求集中释放。 一、核心价格动态 关键数据 桶），动荡加剧原油供应不确定性。 货币政策预期转向 市场押注美联储2026年将降息约50基点，美元指数跌至三年低位，持有无息黄金的机会成本降低。全球 央行连续13个月增持黄金（2025年中国央行增持7412万盎司），实物买盘形成价格托底。 白银供需结构特殊性 白银兼具金融与工业属性： 黄金：纽约商品交易所（COMEX）黄金期货收盘价4451.50美元/盎司，单日涨幅2.82%；现货黄金突破 4400美元关口，日内最高触及4422美元/盎司。 白银：COMEX白银期货暴涨7.94%至76.657美元/盎司，单日涨幅创近期新高。 国内市场传导：周大福、老庙黄金等品牌足金首饰报价单日跳涨12-18元/克，突破1389元/克，部分定价 类金饰（如转运珠）涨幅达200-1500元。 二、上涨核心动因 地缘政治风险激化避险情绪 美国1月3日对委内瑞拉发起军 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2026 年 1 月 6 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价联袂走高，LME 铜收盘价再创历史新高。宏观方面，美国 12 月 ISM 制 | | | 造业指数从 48.2 小幅下降至 47.9，已连续 10 个月低于 50。新订单已连续第四个月收 | | | 缩，出口订单仍然疲弱；就业人数连续第 11 个月下降，不过降幅有所放缓。库存方面， | | 铜 | LME 库存下降 2775 吨至 142550 吨；Comex 库存增加 3204 吨至 456657 吨；SHFE 铜 | | | 仓单增加 8507 吨至 90282 吨，BC 铜维持 1053 吨。需求方面，因铜价持续高位，终端 | | | 订单有所放缓，市场维系刚性采购需求。资金仍是短线铜价的主要推手，但也会带来不 | | | 确定性风险，操作上维系铜"趋势多头思维"，建议在元旦至春节这段期间多观察，利 | | | 用宏观或情绪扰动导致的回调机会分批逢低布局。 | | | 隔夜氧化铝震荡偏弱，隔夜 AO2605 收于 2773 元/吨，跌幅 0.72%，持仓减仓 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have rebounded strongly, trading around $4467.97 per ounce, supported by stability above $4400 and trading above the 50-day moving average, indicating a dominant short-term upward trend [1] Economic Data - The S&P Global reported that the U.S. manufacturing PMI remains at 51.8, indicating continued expansion, while the ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9 from 48.2 in November, signaling ongoing contraction in business activity [1] - These economic indicators have not significantly impacted dovish expectations, allowing the dollar to retreat from a near four-week high, which is favorable for non-yielding gold [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower borrowing costs in March and potentially cut rates again by the end of the year [1] Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical risks include U.S. military actions in Venezuela, political tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, unrest in Iran, and the continuing Russia-Ukraine war [1] Technical Analysis - Weekly analysis indicates that gold prices faced resistance and a potential decline towards the 10-week moving average at $4230, with further support at the 30-week moving average around $4000 [2] - Despite the potential for a pullback, the upward trend remains intact, with the price maintaining above the 5-10 week moving averages, suggesting a bullish outlook [2] - Daily charts show a breakout above the 100-hour simple moving average (SMA) and the congestion area of $4425-$4450, which could be a key trigger for bullish momentum [2] - The MACD histogram has turned positive, indicating improved momentum, while the RSI is at 68, suggesting strong upward momentum, with a breakthrough above 70 reinforcing bullish arguments [2] - The 100-hour SMA at $4373.28 is expected to provide dynamic support, indicating a positive short-term bias [2]