今日周五(12月19日)亚盘时段，国际金价回落至4350美元以下，延续了前一个交易日的震荡整理态势。 此次回调主要由于短期合约中的获利回吐和多头头寸减少，而非出现显著的趋势性抛售压力。在连续创 下新高之后，部分投资者选择暂时离场观望，导致金价短期内承受一定压力。 摘要今日周五(12月19日)亚盘时段，国际金价回落至4350美元以下，延续了前一个交易日的震荡整理态 势。此次回调主要由于短期合约中的获利回吐和多头头寸减少，而非出现显著的趋势性抛售压力。在连 续创下新高之后，部分投资者选择暂时离场观望，导致金价短期内承受一定压力。 然而，需注意的是，美国政府此前的停摆问题对部分经济数据的统计和完整性造成了影响，使得市场在 解读通胀走势时保持谨慎态度。短期内，投资者将密切关注即将公布的密歇根大学消费者信心指数，以 评估通胀预期和消费信心的变化趋势。 【最新国际黄金行情解析】 从技术结构看，黄金依旧保持鲜明的多头格局：价格稳于关键均线之上，高低点逐步抬升，趋势延续性 良好。目前金价坚守100周期指数均线支撑，中期上升通道完好无损。 RSI运行于中轴之上，虽有回落仍处强势区，显示多头仍占优；布林带持续开口，预示行情具备进 ...

上交易日周四(12月18日)：国际黄金震荡十字收跌，再度收取反弹见顶形态，并也维持在趋势线阻力下 方，暗示后市仍有回落走低调整的风险，但目前日图走势仍处于短期均线及上升趋势中，周图也处于5- 10周均线上方，基本面也处于看涨前景中，故此，如有回撤，下方关注关键支撑位置，也是入场看涨的 机会。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4337.99美元/盎司，亚欧盘时段先行维持震荡下移模式，延续至美盘时 段，走势频率及幅度开始加大，先是走低22点半时段录得日内低点4308.66美元，之后又迅速反弹，连 续回升，于次日0点时段录日内高点4374.14美元，之后又回落收复涨幅，并陷入4322-4340美元区间内 持续盘整，最终收于4332.42美元，日振幅65.48美元，收跌5.57美元，跌幅0.13%。 影响上，日内走势受到阻力压制，以及美元指数走强而先行震荡偏弱走盘，到美盘时段，受到美国11月 CPI整体数据的降低，提升了次年初的降息预期，利好金价走强，但由于周初请的低于预期及前值，和 阻力的获利了结而一度跳水录得日内低点； 不过美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特：美联储仍有很大降息空间。再度提升金价多头，使其反弹攀 升录得日 ...

周五亚洲时段早盘，纽元/美元货币对迎来小幅上行，汇价触及0.5775附近。 对汇市而言，这种预期直接转化为美元的抛售压力，美元兑纽元的走软，客观上为纽元/美元货币对的上行提供了助力。当前，交易员普遍在等待周五晚些 时候密歇根大学12月消费者信心指数的公布，这份数据将为后续美元走势和美联储政策预期提供更多参考依据。 新西兰本土经济的积极表现，也为纽元提供了短期支撑。 最新数据显示，新西兰经济在第三季度（Q3）实现1.1%的国内生产总值（GDP）增长，这一表现远超市场预期，且扭转了第二季度（Q2）修订后1.0%的萎 缩态势。经济复苏势头的显现，让市场对新西兰经济前景的信心有所提振，这种信心传导至汇市，对纽元兑美元的汇率形成了阶段性支撑。 从历史数据来看，新西兰经济基本面的强弱往往直接影响纽元的市场表现，此次强劲的GDP数据无疑是近期纽元的重要利好因素。 但纽元的上行势头并非毫无阻碍，中国经济的疲软迹象正在形成潜在压制。作为新西兰最大的贸易伙伴，中国经济的波动对新西兰出口贸易乃至纽元汇率有 着直接影响。本周早些时候国家统计局发布的数据显示，11月份中国零售额同比增长1.3%，较10月份的2.9%大幅回落，且显著低于 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the volatility in the gold market following the release of the US CPI data, which showed a significant decrease in inflation, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The US November CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected increase of 3.1%, while the core CPI rose by 2.6%, also below the previous value and market expectations of 3% [1] - The market anticipates a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve, with expectations for continued interest rate cuts into 2026 being reinforced by the recent inflation data [1] Group 2 - The European Central Bank decided to maintain interest rates at its recent meeting, marking the fourth consecutive meeting where no changes were made [1] - The market is closely watching the actions of the Bank of Japan, with expectations of a dovish stance being fully priced in [1] - Despite the current supportive environment for gold prices, caution is advised regarding the potential for gold to quickly break through previous historical highs [1]

中辉有色观点 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | | I | 100 10 | 2 | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美国数据利于宽松，英国继续降息，欧洲央行保持不变，短期市场流动性风险偏好 | 黄金 | | | 长线持有 | | 较好，世界央行三季度买黄金再创新高。黄金中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续 | | ★ | | 存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银短期故事越来越多、短期投机资金大量涌入，长期来看市场押注降息持续、供 | 白银 | | | 长线持有 | ★★ | 需缺口连续 5 年持续，全球大财政均对白银长期有利，长期做多逻辑不变。短期金 | | 银比价大幅快速降低，盘面进入超买区间，谨防高波动风险 | | | | 美通胀不及预期，美联储 | | 1 月降息预期增加，美国虹吸全球铜库存，国内 2026 年铜 | | 铜 | | | | 长线持有 | ★ | 精矿 TC 长协谈判焦灼，铜易涨难跌，风物宜放长量，建议铜多单继续持有，回调仍 是布局良机，中长期对铜依旧看好。 | | 海外锌库存持续累库，锌精矿 ...

今日周五(12月19日)亚盘时段，白银td目前交投于15061一线上方，今日开盘于15420元/千克，截至发 稿，白银td暂报15117元/千克，下跌2.24%，最高触及15499元/千克，最低下探15034元/千克，目前来 看，白银td盘内短线偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 本次公布的CPI数据，无疑为美联储内部的鸽派阵营提供了有力支撑，这部分官员主张美联储进一步降 息。而降息预期，通常会对贵金属构成利好，同时对美元汇率形成利空。 【最新白银td行情解析】 日图来看，昨日白银td小幅上涨但涨幅减弱，今日白银td震荡走跌，相对强弱指数(RSI)在1小时图上显 示处于中性至看跌状态，但DMI显示出反弹信号，等待后续上涨力度，警惕进一步下跌，白银td走势下 方关注14500-15000支撑；上方关注15400-16000阻力。 美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，2025年12月消费者价格指数(CPI)同比上涨2.7%，创下7月以来的最低 水平，不仅低于3.1%的市场预期，也低于9月3.0%的同比涨幅。 与此同时，核心通胀率(剔除食品和能源价格)同比上涨2.6%，为2021年3月以来的最低值，同样低于 3.0%的预期值。 ...

美国 11 月 CPI 意外回落，但数据可能失真 事件：北京时间 12 月 18 日 21:30，美国公布 2025 年 11 月 CPI。 核心结论：美国 11 月 CPI 和核心 CPI 双双超预期回落，但由于政府停摆 影响了调查统计，数据可能很大程度上存在失真。CPI 公布后，美联储降 息预期略微上调，利率期货隐含的 1 月降息概率为 27%，2026 全年降息 2 次和 3 次的概率相当。继续提示：2026 年 1 月议息会议前还能看到更 多就业和通胀数据，叠加特朗普可能提名下任美联储主席，2026 年初可 能是降息预期的关键博弈窗口。 证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 12 19 年 月 日 宏观点评 >整体表现：美国 11 月未季调 CPI 同比 2.7%，低于预期值 3.1%和 9 月 数据 3.0%；核心 CPI 同比 2.6%，低于预期值和 9 月数据 3.0%，是过去 9 个月最低。受政府停摆影响，10 月数据因未能统计而永久缺失，10-11 月环比数据也无法计算。 >分项表现：美国 11 月 CPI 主要分项方面，食品分项同比从 9 月的 3.1% 降至 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight external asset performance has a neutral impact. For domestic A - shares, except for the Shanghai 50 and the broader market, other indices basically showed a pattern of rising and then falling, with low trading volume. Today is the index futures delivery day, and the Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates. Information and market operation conditions indicate that the A - share market will show divergence today. The broader market is under pressure around 3900 and supported around 3800. The index rebound cannot drive individual stocks, and the short - term trend will remain volatile. The report is still optimistic about the cross - year market approaching late December and suggests increasing positions after the market situation becomes clear [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Important Information - US November unadjusted CPI annual rate was 2.7%, lower than the expected 3.1%. The unadjusted core CPI annual rate was 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January next year increased from 26.6% to 28.8% [5]. - US White House National Economic Council Director Hasset said the Fed still has a lot of room to cut interest rates [6]. - Fed's Goolsbee said the November inflation data was good, but he was uneasy about pre - emptive rate cuts. The terminal interest rate will be much lower than the current level [6]. - The European Central Bank kept the deposit facility rate at 2% unchanged, in line with market expectations, and it was the fourth consecutive meeting to hold rates. ECB officials said the rate - cut cycle may have ended [6]. - The Bank of England cut the benchmark interest rate from 4.00% to 3.75%, in line with market expectations. Governor Bailey said the pace of rate cuts will slow down [6]. - The State Council General Office issued an opinion on cracking down on tobacco - related illegal activities across the whole chain [7]. - Foreign Minister Wang Yi had phone calls with the foreign ministers of Cambodia and Thailand, emphasizing the need to make a decision, stop the fire as soon as possible, stop losses in time, and rebuild mutual trust [7]. - The Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council responded to US arms sales to Taiwan, stating that if "Taiwan independence" separatist forces dare to cross the red line, China will strike back. The Foreign Ministry responded to the US $1.1 billion arms sales to Taiwan, saying that using Taiwan to contain China will never succeed [7]. - CSRC Chairman Wu Qing attended the establishment meeting of the Academic Committee of the China Capital Market Society and held a symposium of experts on the "15th Five - Year Plan" for the capital market [7]. - The Ministry of Commerce approved some general export license applications for rare earths [8]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation will comprehensively rectify "involution - style" competition to promote the formation of a market order with high - quality products at reasonable prices and healthy competition [8]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will further strengthen capacity regulation in the photovoltaic industry [9]. 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - **Futures Market Performance**: The Shanghai 50 index rose 0.23%. Among its futures contracts, IH2512 rose 0.26%, IH2601 rose 0.28%, IH2603 rose 0.18%, and IH2606 rose 0.20%. The CSI 300 index fell 0.59%. Its futures contracts IF2512 fell 0.61%, IF2601 fell 0.57%, IF2603 fell 0.60%, and IF2606 fell 0.57%. The CSI 500 index fell 0.52%. Its futures contracts IC2512 fell 0.64%, IC2601 fell 0.53%, IC2603 fell 0.32%, and IC2606 fell 0.35%. The CSI 1000 index fell 0.22%. Its futures contracts IM2512 fell 0.27%, IM2601 fell 0.21%, IM2603 fell 0.11%, and IM2606 fell 0.12% [11]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of various futures contracts showed different degrees of change. For example, the trading volume of the Shanghai 50 futures was 58,589, a decrease of 16,253; the open interest decreased by 8,002. Each contract also had corresponding changes in trading volume, open interest, and other aspects [12]. 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - **Spot Market Performance**: The Wind All - A index fell 0.38%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.29%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.17%. Among sectors, banks, coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, national defense and military industry, and light manufacturing led the gains, while power equipment, communications, electronics, and automobiles led the losses [37]. - **Market Style Impact**: Different market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, stable) had different impacts on the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices in terms of daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions [38][39]. - **Valuation and Other Indicators**: The report also presented the valuation, trading volume, turnover rate, and other indicators of important indices and sectors, as well as the number of rising and falling stocks in the two markets and the change in index trading volume [37][40][45] 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - The report presented the central bank's open - market operations (including money injection, money withdrawal, and net money injection) and the Shibor interest rate level [53][54][55]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diversified trend. Different sectors, such as financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals, have their own characteristics and influencing factors. For example, in financial derivatives, stock index futures are expected to test 3900 again, while treasury bond futures have opportunities despite fluctuations; in agricultural products, the supply - demand situation of various varieties varies, affecting their price trends [5][20][26] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to test 3900 again. On Thursday, the market showed a sideways shock. The main stock index futures contracts mostly declined, and the trading volume and positions decreased. The market rebound was affected by factors such as the overnight decline of the US stock market, and it is expected to maintain a sideways consolidation trend [18][20] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: There were fluctuations, but opportunities remained. On Thursday, most treasury bond futures closed higher, and the market funds were balanced and slightly loose. The central bank's open - market operations and market rumors affected the bond market sentiment. In the short term, the central bank's loose tone remained unchanged, but the long - end repair rhythm might be repeated [22][23][24] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The production outlook was good, and US soybeans continued to be under pressure. The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indexes declined. The US soybean export sales decreased, and the Brazilian soybean production was expected to increase. The domestic soybean meal crushing profit was still in deficit, and the overall price was expected to be supported but with limited sustainability [26][27][28] - **Sugar**: International sugar prices dropped sharply. The ICE and London sugar futures prices declined. The Brazilian sugar production increase was basically realized, and the market focus shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. The domestic sugar market had increasing supply pressure, but the price had certain support near the cost line [29][30][33] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Palm oil had a technical rebound, and the overall oils were at the bottom - level shock. The overseas palm oil and soybean oil prices had small fluctuations. The Indonesian palm oil inventory decreased, and the domestic soybean oil inventory was gradually decreasing, while the rapeseed oil inventory was expected to continue to decline [35][36] - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price declined, and the futures price was at the bottom - level shock. The CBOT corn futures rebounded. The domestic corn processing enterprise inventory increased, and the starch inventory also increased. The Northeast corn price was strong, while the North China corn price was weak [37][38][39] - **Hogs**: The slaughter recovered, and the spot price fluctuated slightly. The hog price was stable in most regions. The short - term slaughter pressure decreased, but the overall supply pressure still existed [39][40][41] - **Peanuts**: The spot price declined, and the futures price had a narrow - range shock. The peanut price was stable in some regions and declined in others. The oil factory's purchase price was adjusted, and the 03 peanut futures price still had a downward space [42][43][44] - **Eggs**: The demand was average, and the egg price was stable with a slight decline. The main - producing and main - selling area prices were relatively stable. The number of laying hens decreased slightly, and the short - term supply pressure was relieved [45][46][47] - **Apples**: The demand was average, and the apple price was mainly stable. The cold - storage inventory decreased, and the import and export volume changed. The apple price was high before, which led to weak demand, and the market was concerned about the January delivery and pre - Spring Festival stocking [49][50][51] - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The new cotton sales were good, and the cotton price was shock - upward. The ICE cotton futures price increased. The domestic cotton import and export volume changed, and the new cotton sales progress was fast. The market was affected by factors such as the expected reduction of cotton planting area and the expansion of textile factory capacity [52][53][54] Black Metals - **Steel**: The raw material prices stopped falling and stabilized, and the steel price rebounded from the bottom. The steel product supply decreased slightly, the inventory decreased, and the consumption decreased slightly. The steel price was affected by factors such as the raw material supply, demand, and export policy, and it was expected to show a shock - upward trend [57][58][59] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices rebounded from the bottom, and the trading logic change needed attention. The Mongolian coking coal market was strong, and the prices of some domestic coking coal increased. The market "anti - involution" sentiment led to the price rebound, and the future supply - demand situation might improve slightly [59][60][61] - **Iron Ore**: The market expectations were repeated, and the ore price was in shock. The domestic crude steel and rebar production decreased, and the iron ore production increased slightly. The global iron ore supply was loose, and the domestic demand was weak. The ore price was expected to have limited upward space [62][63][64] - **Ferroalloys**: Supported by cost and the "anti - involution" expectation, the prices rebounded in the short term. The silicon - iron and manganese - silicon prices were stable with a slight increase. The supply was expected to decline slightly, and the demand was under pressure. The cost support and "anti - involution" expectation led to the price rebound [64][65][66] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The US November CPI was better than expected, but the data was questionable, leading to market fluctuations. The international gold and silver prices fluctuated widely, and the US dollar index and US bond yields changed. The market was in a long - short tug - of - war, and the gold and silver prices were expected to maintain a high - level range [67][68][69] - **Platinum and Palladium**: The trading enthusiasm was over - high, and the risk factors were gradually accumulating. The platinum and palladium futures prices increased significantly, and the trading volume expanded. The macro - environment was favorable, and the news boosted the demand outlook. The platinum was short - term bullish, and the palladium might be affected by the macro - environment [69][70][71] - **Copper**: Buy after a full correction. The copper futures prices increased, and the inventory increased. The US inflation data affected the market, and the copper supply was expected to be tight in 2026. The long - term price trend was upward, but the short - term might be in shock [74][75][76] - **Alumina**: The price was in a weak shock. The alumina futures price declined, and the spot price decreased slightly. The overseas supply negotiation and domestic inventory situation affected the price. The price was expected to be under pressure after the "anti - involution" expectation subsided [78][79][80] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The overseas economic data was released this week, and the aluminum price rebounded. The electrolytic aluminum futures price increased, and the inventory decreased. The overseas economic data was better than expected, and the domestic demand was resilient. The price was supported [83][84][85] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The scrap aluminum supply was still tight, and the alloy price rebounded with the sector. The cast aluminum alloy futures price increased, and the spot price increased. The scrap aluminum supply was tight, and the cost supported the price. The price was expected to maintain a high - level shock [86][87] - **Zinc**: Pay attention to the domestic social inventory today. The zinc futures price increased, and the spot price had a small change. The overseas zinc inventory increased, and the domestic smelting profit was compressed. The price was under pressure from the external market [88][89][90] - **Lead**: Pay attention to the inventory change. The lead futures price increased, and the spot price decreased slightly. The domestic lead supply and demand decreased, and the inventory became more visible. The price was expected to maintain a range shock [91][92][93] - **Nickel**: The Indonesian policy expectation stimulated the nickel price rebound, but the surplus suppressed the upward space. The LME nickel price increased, and the inventory decreased. The global nickel was in a surplus situation, but the Indonesian policy adjustment stimulated the price rebound. The price was expected to decline after the short - term rebound [93][94][95] - **Stainless Steel**: Followed the nickel price and weakened in shock. The stainless steel inventory decreased, and the terminal demand was in the off - season. The price was affected by the nickel price and demand, and it was expected to be at a low - level shock [96][97][99] - **Industrial Silicon**: Sell on rallies. The industrial silicon was in a state of inventory accumulation. The demand in the first quarter of 2026 was pessimistic, and the price was expected to decline. It was recommended to sell on rallies [99][100] - **Polysilicon**: Realize the profits of long positions and pay attention to risk management. The polysilicon futures trading rules changed. The downstream demand was relatively pessimistic, and the short - term price was expected to be strong. It was recommended to take profits on long positions and buy after a correction [100][101][103] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The inventory reduction was slower than expected, and the lithium price was under pressure to correct. The lithium carbonate price had a short - term correction, and the inventory reduction was slow. The price was expected to be at a high - level, and it was recommended to operate cautiously [104][105] - **Tin**: Pay attention to the November export data from Myanmar. The tin futures price increased, and the inventory increased. The US inflation data was questionable, and the domestic tin supply and demand were weak. The price was expected to be affected by the Myanmar export data and market fluctuations [107][108][109] Shipping - **Container Shipping**: MSK released the price of 2500/2600 for the first week, and pay attention to the January freight rate change path. The spot freight rate increased slightly. The European port congestion was serious, and the demand was expected to improve in December - January. The short - term price was expected to be at a high - level shock, and it was recommended to take partial profits on long positions [110][111][113] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The surplus pressure was difficult to change, and the oil price rebound was limited. The crude oil futures prices increased slightly. The US inflation and employment data changed, and the geopolitical situation was uncertain. The oil price was expected to be in a weak shock in the medium - term [114][115][116] - **Asphalt**: The short - term supply - demand was weak, and the raw material risk remained. The asphalt futures price declined, and the spot price was stable. The terminal demand decreased, and the raw material supply was uncertain. The price was expected to be in a narrow - range shock [117][118][119] - **Fuel Oil**: The short - term low - sulfur supply was continuously increasing. The fuel oil futures prices increased slightly. The low - sulfur supply was expected to increase, and the high - sulfur demand was stable and weak. The short - term price was expected to be bearish [120][121][122] - **Natural Gas**: The LNG downward trend remained unchanged. The natural gas futures prices had different changes. The weather affected the demand, and the overall supply was loose. The HH2602 contract long positions were recommended to be held [124][125][126] - **LPG**: The PDH profit continued to be in deficit. The LPG futures price increased, and the spot price was stable. The international LPG market was strong, and the PDH profit was in deficit. It was recommended to short the 03 contract on rallies [127][128][129] - **PX & PTA**: The polyester sales volume increased, and the market atmosphere was boosted. The PX and PTA futures prices increased. The PTA supply was expected to increase slowly, and the downstream polyester demand was high. The price was expected to be shock - upward [131][132] - **BZ & EB**: The pure benzene supply - demand was loose, and the styrene basis weakened. The pure benzene and styrene futures prices declined slightly. The pure benzene supply increased and demand decreased, and the styrene supply and demand were also weak. The price was expected to be in a weak shock [134][135][136] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory accumulation pressure remained, and the price was in shock. The ethylene glycol futures price increased slightly. The supply and demand were weak, and the inventory had a de - stocking pressure. The short - term price was expected to be in shock and weak in the medium - term [138][139] - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand was weak. The short - fiber futures price increased. The short - fiber supply and demand decreased, and the processing fee was under pressure. The price was expected to be shock - upward [140][142] - **Bottle Chips**: The supply - demand was relatively loose. The bottle - chip futures price increased. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was relatively stable. The price was expected to be shock - upward [143][144] - **Propylene**: The demand was poor, and the rebound was weak. The propylene futures price increased first and then decreased. The propylene supply was expected to be high, and the demand was weak. The short - term price was expected to be shock - upward [146][147] - **Plastic PP**: The PE production decreased month - on - month, and the PP production increased month - on - month. The L and PP futures prices declined slightly. The PE and PP supply and demand had different changes. It was recommended to wait and see for the L and PP 2605 contracts [148][150][151] - **Caustic Soda**: The price was in a shock trend. The caustic soda spot price had a small adjustment. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be in a weak shock [152][153][154] - **PVC**: The price continued to rebound. The PVC futures price increased, and the spot price increased slightly. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to continue to rebound [155][156][157] - **Soda Ash**: The futures price was in a strong trend. The soda ash futures price increased, and the spot price had a small change. The supply was expected to be under pressure in the future, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be shock - upward next week with a risk of decline at the end of the month [157][158][159] - **Glass**: The futures price was in a strong trend. The glass futures price increased, and the spot price was stable. The supply was expected to be reduced, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be shock - upward next week with a risk of decline at the end of the month [160][161][163] - **Methanol**: The price rose strongly. The methanol production increased, and the international device operation was affected. The price was expected to be shock - upward [165][166] - **Urea**: The price continued to rise. The urea production decreased slightly, and the international market had an impact. The short - term price was expected to be strong, and the medium - long - term supply - demand was relatively loose [167][168][169] - **Pulp**: The reality was weak, but the expectation was strong. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt registration and port inventory changes. The pulp futures price declined slightly, and the spot price had a small adjustment. The cost supported the price, but the demand was weak. It was recommended to hold the previous short positions [170][171][173] - **Logs**: The fundamentals were weak, and the futures - spot price was inverted. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt registration. The log price was stable, and the inventory and arrival volume changed. The price was expected to continue to bottom - out. It was recommended to hold the 03 long positions [173][174][175] - **Offset Printing Paper**: The supply pressure remained, and the high pulp price transmission did not meet expectations. The offset printing paper futures price declined slightly, and the spot price was stable. The production and inventory of double - offset paper and coated paper changed. The price was expected to be bearish [179][180] - **Natural Rubber**: The tire production line decreased month - on - month. The natural rubber futures prices had different changes. The Thai government took measures to stabilize the price, and the domestic tire production decreased. It was recommended to short the RU 05 contract slightly and hold the NR 02 contract long positions [182][183] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The BD & BR production decreased marginally, and the tire production decreased month - on - month. The butadiene rubber futures price increased, and the natural rubber futures prices had different changes. The domestic butadiene and tire production decreased. It was recommended to hold the BR 02 contract long positions [186][187][188]

12月19日，在隔夜美股科技巨头大涨的带动下，港股开盘走强，恒生科技指数小幅高开，腾讯控股、阿 里巴巴-W、美团-W、小米集团-W、中芯国际H股悉数飘红。 此外，存储巨头美光科技公布的财报和指引显著超预期，其管理层在电话会议上表示"我们相信，在可 预见的未来，行业总供应量将远低于需求，好日子还在后头。"存储芯片的供需紧张，有望改善市场对 AI算力叙事的悲观情绪。 关注港股通科技ETF基金（159101.SZ），相比恒生科技，国证港股通科技减配消费零售，增配了医药 生物（百济神州、信达生物、药明生物），以及硬件设备（小米集团、比亚迪电子）等，同时单一个股 权重上限较高（达15%），因此在反弹行情中，往往弹性更大。 每日经济新闻 消息面上，美联储降息预期和AI叙事迎来双重利好： 最新公布的美国11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，创2021年以来最低水平。通胀数据的超预期放缓，一度点 燃市场对美联储2026年更激进降息的憧憬。交易员上调了对2026年降息的定价，目前普遍维持明年两次 降息、合计50个基点的预期，同时3月降息概率大幅提升。 ...