1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock Index: Neutral, with an expectation of a volatile trend [1] - Treasury Bonds: Bearish [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Stock Index**: On May 28, most A - share market indices pulled back. In April, economic data showed a decline compared to March but remained resilient. The social credit demand was weak. Recently, multiple departments announced policies to support the capital market, and internal policy efforts are the main theme for the stock index in 2025. These measures are conducive to helping enterprises repair their balance sheets, promoting the stable development of the real economy, and steadily increasing stock market valuations [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed with slight declines across various tenors. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of funds. In the short - term, the bond market is unlikely to have a trend - based market. After macro - level disturbances, the bond market will fluctuate according to the capital situation and economic fundamentals. Short - term attention should be paid to the May PMI data and whether the central bank restarts treasury bond trading operations [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index**: On May 28, the Wind All - A index dropped 0.2% with a trading volume of 1.03 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices all declined. The consumer sector was relatively strong, while the basic chemicals and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors were weak. In April, the year - on - year growth of social retail sales was 5.1%, supported by the "trade - in" policy. The cumulative new RMB loans in April were 10.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.86%, and the year - on - year growth of M2 was 8%. The joint statement between China and the US laid a good foundation for future trade negotiations. The central bank announced reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and regulatory authorities introduced measures to support the capital market. In the first quarter, the decline in the revenue growth rate of A - share listed companies narrowed for three consecutive quarters, and the net profit increased year - on - year by about 4%, but the ROE was still in the bottom - building stage [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: On May 28, the 30 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures main contracts declined, and the 10 - year main contract was basically stable. The central bank conducted 2155 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 1570 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 585 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rates in the inter - bank and exchange repurchase markets showed different trends. In the short - term, the bond market lacks a clear trend [2] 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On May 28, compared with May 27, the IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts all declined, with declines of - 0.12%, - 0.11%, - 0.18%, and - 0.27% respectively [3] - **Stock Indices**: The SSE 50, SSE 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices all declined on May 28 compared with May 27, with declines of - 0.08%, - 0.08%, - 0.26%, and - 0.40% respectively [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On May 28, compared with May 27, the TS, TF, and TL contracts declined, and the T contract was basically stable [3] - **Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds increased, while the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds decreased [3] 3.3 Market News - From January to April, the total operating revenue of national state - owned and state - holding enterprises was flat compared with the previous year, and the total profit was 1349.14 billion yuan, a year - on - year decline of 1.7% [4] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts [6][7][10] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report includes charts of the trends, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates of treasury bond futures main contracts, as well as the yields of treasury bond spot bonds [13][15][17] - **Exchange Rates**: The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates between major currencies [20][21][24]

据北京日报消息，2025年5月22日，外交部副部长马朝旭同美国常务副国务卿兰多通电话，就中美关系及共同关心的重要问题交换了意见。双方同意 继续保持沟通。 特朗普（资料图） 稀土（资料图） 美国F-35战机每架需417公斤稀土材料，特斯拉人形机器人每台消耗23公斤稀土，然而，美国试图绕开中国供应链的企图最终落空。在联合声明中， 并未出现美方所期望的相关条款。这背后是冰冷的现实，中国在稀土产业上的优势地位并非一朝一夕形成，而是经过多年的发展和积累。中方在协 议中明确保留管制权，仅承诺打击走私，这一立场既体现了中国维护自身产业安全的决心，也向世界表明，中国不会在核心利益问题上轻易让步。 在这次通话中，我国就只答应了一件事，那就是同意继续保持沟通。在这之前，中美高层日内瓦会谈结束后，美国将对中国商品加征关税从145%降 至30%，中国也将对美国商品加征关税从125%降至10%，双方降幅相同。那次会谈就是在特朗普多次向中国释放对话信号的背景下，我国在经过评 估过后才同意的。从这一点其实也不难看出，特朗普确实对关税战感到了害怕。 美国对中国加税的行为换来了中国的反制，在中国多次有效的反制之下，美国的第一季度GDP都出现了 ...

想当初，特朗普刚上台那会，在国际舞台上那叫一个威风，到处挥舞着 "关税大棒"，好像谁都不放在眼里。尤其是在对咱中国的贸易政策上，说加税就 加税，那叫一个干脆，一副要把全世界都拿捏的架势。可谁能料到，最近这局势来了个大反转，特朗普居然 "服软" 了，还第一次传出害怕的消息。 美国商务部长卢特尼克最近就表示，中美关税战这事儿，美国可是痛苦得很。他害怕，特朗普也害怕。那特朗普到底为啥害怕呢？这背后的事儿可复杂了 去了。就说物价这一块，美国著名的零售巨头沃尔玛，大家都知道吧，他们超市里的商品，大部分都在偷偷涨价。沃尔玛的 CEO 更是直接表态，三分之 一的商品都得涨价。这些可都是老百姓日常生活离不开的必需品啊，价格一涨，老百姓的生活成本立马就上去了，能不抱怨吗？走在大街上，都能听到老 百姓在那吐槽，生活越来越不好过了。 这场关税战给我们提了个醒，打铁还得自身硬。只有自己强大了，才能不惧怕任何挑衅。我们要继续推动经济的高质量发展，加强科技创新，提升我国在 全球产业链和供应链中的地位。只有这样，我们才能在国际经济竞争中立于不败之地。美国这次求和，也给其他国家提了个醒，在国际经济合作中，任何 想通过霸权手段获取不正当利益的 ...

特朗普在中美结束关税战，达成了临时协议后，全世界都以为关税战接近尾声，很可能到时候雷声大雨点小，最后就不了了之了。 没想到消停几天后，又开始动手了。这次针对的是自己的亲密盟友和小弟，特朗普计划在6月1日开始对欧盟国家征收50%的关税，这下不仅让欧洲国家心惊 肉跳，全世界都聚精会神的来看戏，看他到底怎么样？ 欧洲国家想不通，因为特朗普在社交媒体上公开指责欧盟，占美国的便宜就算了，还涉嫌货币操纵，有事没事就找美国企业打官司，导致美国每年高达超过 250000000美元的贸易逆差，"这完全无法接受"。 欧洲国家看到这串数字后面这么多0，以为美欧贸易逆差是天文数字了，这不符合事实啊！因为美欧几乎没有什么贸易逆向差，多年来处于相对平衡的状 态。赶紧戴上老花眼镜仔细数，数了好几次，也就7个0，也就是2.5亿美元。对于双方每年的几千亿贸易额，2.5亿美元几乎可以忽略不计，就为了这么点 钱，居然要对欧洲国家加征50%的关税，这不是小题大作故意找茬子吗？这还有天理吗？ 也难怪欧洲国家生气，一直以来作为小弟，都听老大的，几乎老大的所有要求都予以配合了，且不说美欧有没有贸易逆差，就算有，就为这么一点钱，就要 对欧洲几十个国家加征5 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The US stock indices opened slightly higher on May 28, with the Dow Jones up 0.05%, S&P 500 up 0.01%, and Nasdaq down 0.03% [2] - Investor focus has shifted from trade war tensions to the latest tax reform bill in the US [2] - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Nvidia down 0.2% ahead of its earnings report [2] Group 2: Trade War Developments - Signs of easing in the US tariff war emerged, with President Trump postponing high tariffs on the EU [3] - The EU and the US are engaged in ongoing discussions regarding tariff policies and cooperation in various sectors [3] - ASEAN leaders expressed concerns about the uncertainty brought by Trump's tariff plans and emphasized the need for trade diversification [3] Group 3: Tax Reform Concerns - The latest tax reform bill is projected to increase the US deficit by $3.8 trillion over the next decade, with $2.2 trillion occurring in the first five years [5] - Analysts from Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley highlighted the potential for the deficit to exceed 6% of GDP in the coming years due to the tax reform [5] - The tax reform is seen as a continuation of previous tax cuts, and failure to pass it could lead to significant tax increases and economic recession [5] Group 4: Nvidia's Earnings Report - Nvidia is set to release its earnings report, with analysts optimistic about a revenue expectation of $43.28 billion for the quarter, a 66% year-over-year increase [6] - The company's stock has risen over 40% since April, and the performance of its new Blackwell chip is a key focus for investors [6] - Concerns regarding Nvidia's gross margin due to rising costs from increased production capacity are also highlighted [6] Group 5: General Sentiment in Tech Sector - Overall, tech companies have reported strong earnings, contributing to a positive sentiment in the sector [7] - Nvidia's performance is expected to further solidify the overall trend in the tech sector if it continues to show strength [7]

现在的美国财政，真不是一般的吃紧。36万亿美元国债压顶，仅利息就吞掉GDP的3.7%，平均每个美国人一年光还利息就得掏2500美元。这不是警告，这 是明牌。财政部的锅盖都要被债务炸飞了。 谁都没想到，美国财长会突然放出一句90天内不签协议，就恢复所有关税。这话一出口，像是在边缘试探，也像是在发出最后警告。但仔细一看，不是底气 十足，而是慌了。 你看今年前五个月，美国联邦赤字直接冲到1.147万亿美元。换算一下，每天新增债务超80亿美元。就这么个窟窿，别说补，连往下看的勇气都没有。更麻 烦的是，6月还有6.5万亿美元国债要到期，全指望着发新债接力。但30年期国债收益率已经破5%，新债的利息直接翻倍，以前那点低利息债一到期，财政 压力翻山倒海地砸过来。 再看贝森特，他为啥嘴这么硬？其实手里一张底牌都没剩。他喊着不签协议就不客气，其实是希望中国能配合一下，多买点国债，多交点税，给美国财政续 命。但中国根本不吃这一套。 中国这边早就准备好了应对。4月美国刚加税，中国立刻反手对大豆、玉米、鸡肉下手。这三样可是美国农业州的命根子，是票仓的命脉。一刀下去，美国 农民直接炸锅。2026年中期选举的阴影已经开始笼罩，这才是贝森 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall economic data in April declined to some extent compared to March but remained resilient under the background of the tariff war. The year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales was 5.1%, supported by the "trade-in" policy. Social credit demand was weak in April, with the cumulative new RMB loans reaching 10.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.86%, and the year-on-year growth rate of M2 was 8%. The joint statement between China and the United States laid a good foundation for further trade negotiations, exceeding market expectations. The central bank announced a reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut policy, and the financial regulatory authorities will promote the entry of long - term funds into the market. The CSRC will optimize the fee model of active equity funds. Internal policy support is the main line for the stock index in 2025. The decline in the revenue growth rate of A - share listed companies in the first quarter has narrowed for three consecutive quarters, and the net profit has rebounded, but the ROE is still at the bottoming - out stage. These measures are conducive to the repair of corporate balance sheets and the stable development of the real economy, and will steadily increase the stock market valuation. The stock index is expected to fluctuate [1]. - The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures contracts closed down. The central bank conducted a 448 billion yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net investment of 9.1 billion yuan. The capital interest rate declined slightly. The negative impact of the better - than - expected tariff negotiation on the bond market has basically ended. In the short term, the bond market is difficult to have a trend - like market and will fluctuate horizontally. Short - term attention should be paid to the May PMI data and whether the central bank restarts treasury bond trading operations [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Viewpoints - **Stock Index**: The overall economic data in April declined compared to March but remained resilient. Social retail sales were supported by policies, and social credit demand was weak. The joint statement between China and the United States was positive, and multiple policies were introduced. The revenue decline of A - share listed companies narrowed, and the net profit rebounded. The stock index is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the capital interest rate declined. The negative impact on the bond market from tariff negotiations ended, and the bond market will fluctuate horizontally in the short term [1][2] Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On May 27, 2025, compared with May 26, 2025, IH decreased by 15.8 points (-0.59%), IF remained unchanged, IC decreased by 16.6 points (-0.30%), and IM decreased by 10.0 points (-0.17%) [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite 50 decreased by 14.1 points (-0.52%), the CSI 300 decreased by 20.7 points (-0.54%), the CSI 500 decreased by 17.3 points (-0.31%), and the CSI 1000 decreased by 20.3 points (-0.34%) [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS decreased by 0.022 points (-0.02%), TF decreased by 0.03 points (-0.03%), T decreased by 0.12 points (-0.11%), and TL decreased by 0.3 points (-0.25%) [3] Market News - From January to April, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 2.11702 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. Among them, the profit of state - owned holding enterprises was 702.28 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%; the profit of joint - stock enterprises was 1.55964 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.1%; the profit of foreign - invested and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan - invested enterprises was 542.92 billion yuan, an increase of 2.5%; and the profit of private enterprises was 570.68 billion yuan, an increase of 4.3% [5] Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: Includes the trend charts of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts and their corresponding basis trends [7][8][9] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Includes the trend charts of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [14][17][19] - **Exchange Rates**: Includes the intermediate price charts of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, and their 1 - month and 3 - month forward exchange rates, as well as the US dollar index, euro against the US dollar, pound against the US dollar, and US dollar against the yen [22][23][26]

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.05.28） 金融期货和期权 股指期货 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡稍强 中期观点：蓄力上涨 参考策略：持有 IF2506 多单、多 IF2506 空 IM2506 对冲组合 国债期货 品种：TS、TF、T、TL 日内观点：窄幅震荡，TS2509 运行区间[102.30,202.50] 中期观点：偏强 参考策略：T2509 或 TL2509 多单持有 1 请务必阅读文末免责条款 核心逻辑： 1.海外市场方面，美国总统特朗普表示，同意将对欧盟征收 50%关税的最后期 限延长至 7 月 9 日，欧美"关税战"缓和，美元指数止跌回升，欧美权益市场集体 反弹，有助风险情绪回归。 2.国内方面，稳定和活跃资本市场政策接连出台，进一步优化 A 股市场投资生 态。险资长期投资试点、公募基金管理费收取模式改革、上市公司并购重组新的安 排等，均有利于为 A 股注入增量资金和改善市场活跃度。 3.近期风格切换较为频繁，大盘与小盘轮番占优，市场行情轮动较快，缺乏持 续上涨的主线机会。同时，市场成交额尚未出现明显放量，投资者情绪相对谨慎。 短期内，市场或仍维持震荡格局，但在国内 ...

白宫"摊牌"，特朗普开始怕了，究竟是怎么回事？美国电话再次打到中国，所为何事？我们这边又是如何回应的？ 近日，美国商务部长卢特尼克在一场活动上主动承认了一件事，那就是在中美关税战期间，特朗普对美国企业因关税受到的冲击感到"害怕"了。这是白宫高 级官员首次公开承认，特朗普对关税影响感到害怕，算是"摊牌"了。就在卢特尼克承认特朗普害怕的同时，美国电话再次打到北京这边来了。22号，外交部 副部长马朝旭同美国常务副国务卿兰多通电话，就中美关系及共同关心的重要问题交换了意见。在这次通话中，我国就只答应了一件事，那就是同意继续保 持沟通。在这之前，中美高层日内瓦会谈结束后，美国将对中国商品加征关税从145%降至30%，中国也将对美国商品加征关税从125%降至10%，双方降幅 相同。那次会谈就是在特朗普多次向中国释放对话信号的背景下，我国在经过评估过后才同意的。从这一点其实也不难看出，特朗普确实对关税战感到了害 怕。 不过，特朗普政府在关税战上没有讨到便宜，并不代表美国打压中国的动作就停止了。就在中美高层会谈结束没多久，特朗普政府就再次将矛头指向我国的 芯片产业。近日，美国商务部调整AI芯片出口管制指南表述，将"在世界任何 ...

Group 1 - The recent phone call between U.S. and Chinese officials is seen as a positive signal following the Geneva economic talks, emphasizing the importance of bilateral relations and communication channels [1][3] - The U.S. and China have agreed to cancel 91% of additional tariffs and suspend 24% of reciprocal tariff measures, leading to significant market reactions, including a more than 3% increase in major U.S. stock indices and a surge in Chinese semiconductor and new energy sectors [3][6] - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce expressed confidence that consumers would not feel the impact of tariffs, although he later acknowledged the negative effects of tariff policies on U.S. businesses [1][3] Group 2 - The recent Geneva economic talks have resulted in a wave of new orders for foreign trade enterprises, indicating a positive market response and increased activity in factories [6] - Experts suggest that the U.S. tariff war has not achieved its intended goals, highlighting three major issues: misperceptions, incorrect calculations, and erroneous actions [8] - There is a consensus that while China has effectively countered U.S. trade aggression, the trade conflict is far from over, and future negotiations will be complex and challenging [8]