白宫新闻秘书Leavitt宣称，关于贸易协议的7月9日截止日期并不具有至关重要的意义。 如果协议磋商失败，他还能（重新）捡起对等关税。 标普500指数涨0.68%，道指涨330点涨幅0.77%，纳指涨157点涨幅0.75%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is expected to remain under pressure until the expiration of the "reciprocal tariffs" suspension period on July 9, due to concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's independence and credibility [1] Group 1: Currency Performance - The US dollar has fallen to multi-year lows against the euro and Swiss franc [1] - Market concerns about the Federal Reserve's future independence are undermining confidence in US monetary policy [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The concerns regarding the Federal Reserve could pose risks to the outlook for US interest rates [1] - Statements from the Trump administration may further exacerbate pressure on the dollar leading up to the tariff suspension deadline [1]

Group 1: Tariff Negotiations - The tariff negotiations are currently stalled, with little progress made since Trump's announcement to delay "reciprocal tariffs" for 90 days [4] - The U.S. is in a deadlock with Japan over auto tariffs, and no breakthroughs were achieved during the G7 summit [4] - The market is closely watching how Trump will handle the impending expiration of the 90-day delay, with potential for either further delays or a return to "reciprocal tariffs" [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve Rate Cuts - Trump has publicly pressured the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by 2 to 3 percentage points, claiming it could save the U.S. over $800 billion annually [6] - Fed Chairman Powell indicated a cautious approach, acknowledging that tariffs have raised short-term inflation expectations, but suggested that a weak labor market could lead to earlier rate cuts [6] - Other Fed officials have also signaled support for a rate cut in July, with a consensus forming around the idea that inflation is no longer a primary concern [6] Group 3: Israel-Iran Conflict - The Israel-Iran conflict has escalated again shortly after a ceasefire, with Trump warning Israel against further attacks [9] - The conflict is closely tied to oil prices, and any escalation could lead to significant increases in oil prices, impacting U.S. inflation and the need for rate cuts [9] - Despite Trump's calls for increased shale oil production, U.S. shale producers have been reducing drilling activity due to various market pressures [9] Group 4: Overall Challenges - Trump faces intertwined challenges from tariffs, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and the Israel-Iran conflict, which collectively represent significant hurdles [13] - The decisions made in response to these challenges will have direct implications for the U.S. economy and political landscape in the near future [13]

越南总理：预计在7月初对越南出口商品征收46%对等关税的暂停期到期之前，将与美国达成贸易协 议。 跟踪全球贸易动向 +订阅 ...

【环球时报综合报道】"今年前5个月美国的贸易逆差或将创下历史同期最高纪录。"彭博社23日报道 称，随着美国"对等关税"暂停期限的临近，囤货效应推升美国与亚洲国家的贸易逆差持续扩大。但进展 缓慢的关税谈判，也为这些亚洲国家对美出口的前景带来了不确定性。 日美之间也尚未达成任何协议。据雅虎财经24日报道，两名日本政府消息人士周二透露，日本首席贸易 谈判代表赤泽亮正正筹备最早于6月26日启程的第7次美国之行，旨在终结当前损害日本经济的关税措 施。 彭博社说，对美出口历史性的增长将体现在本周美国发布的5月份对外贸易数据中，并可能使美国政府 与亚洲各经济体就美国所谓"对等关税"的谈判复杂化。 公开信息显示，目前，美国与亚洲主要贸易伙伴间的关税谈判依然进展缓慢，甚至陷入僵局。《印度时 报》23日报道称，担心对农民造成不利影响以及出于对美国转基因食品相关的担忧，印度政府拒绝了美 国玉米和大豆等农产品以低关税进入印度市场的要求。消息人士表示，谈判已陷入僵局。 据报道，越南、泰国5月出口均创下历史同期最高纪录。其中，越南和泰国对美出口同比均激增35%。 另据《韩国先驱报》23日报道，韩国6月前20天出口额同比增长8.3%，其中 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the sudden escalation and subsequent de-escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran, highlighting the volatility in geopolitical tensions and its impact on global markets [1][2][3] - Following the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, there were immediate reports of renewed missile attacks, indicating a lack of trust and ongoing hostilities despite the ceasefire agreement [2][3] - The U.S. President Trump played a significant role in facilitating the ceasefire, emphasizing that both parties do not wish to escalate the situation further, although the situation remains fragile [2][3] Group 2 - Oil prices experienced fluctuations in response to the geopolitical tensions, with WTI crude oil initially dropping by 5% before narrowing the decline to 2.5% and then expanding to a 3.65% drop [4] - Gold prices also saw a slight decrease, with London gold experiencing a drop of 1.34% [6] - The ETF market saw a net inflow of 497.84 billion yuan, with stock ETFs finally turning to net inflows after several weeks of outflows, indicating a potential recovery in investor sentiment [9][19] Group 3 - The articles indicate a shift in U.S. foreign policy focus under Trump, moving from political alliances with Israel to economic cooperation with Gulf states, suggesting a strategic pivot in the region [7] - Trump's comments on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy reflect concerns over the U.S. economy and the need for monetary easing to address high national debt levels [7][8] - The stock market outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with analysts maintaining a positive view on Chinese equities, projecting potential upward movements in major indices [19]

据上观新闻报道，当地时间6月16日，在加拿大举行的G7峰会首日，日本首相石破茂与美国总统特朗普 就关税问题举行会谈，仅30分钟后，双方不欢而散，未能达成任何共识。这已经是日美之间的第6轮谈 判，此前的5轮也均以失败告终。日本原本寄希望于此次首脑会晤能打破僵局，结果却再次失望而归。 日美之间的关税矛盾由来已久，并非一朝一夕形成。美国推行的"对等关税"政策以及对汽车和钢铝征收 的高额关税，让日本深感不满。自今年4月以来，双方已经进行了6轮艰苦的谈判，每一轮都充满了激烈 的交锋。 特朗普（资料图） 在首轮谈判中，美国总统特朗普突然亲自加入，打乱了日本的谈判节奏。原本计划由日本经济再生担当 大臣赤泽亮正与美国财政部长贝森特主导的谈判，变成了特朗普与赤泽亮正的直接对话。特朗普在谈判 中提出了一系列要求，包括削减美国贸易逆差、取消对美农产品的非关税壁垒以及增加日本承担的驻日 美军费用等，而日本则强烈要求美方撤销对日本的关税。这轮谈判最终没有取得实质性进展，双方仅同 意继续推进事务级磋商。 随后的几轮谈判同样陷入僵局。日本一直坚持将"对等关税"和汽车、钢铝关税等捆绑谈判，要求美方全 面取消高关税，而美国则坚决不肯让步。汽车 ...

Core Insights - The company is actively preparing for the mid-year sales event in the U.S. and exploring the Mexican market for expansion opportunities [1] - The company primarily engages in the trade of consumer electronics, connecting U.S. retailers with Chinese manufacturers [1] - The company has been closely monitoring changes in tariffs and shipping costs, making strategic decisions based on these factors [1][2] Shipping Costs - As of June 13, shipping rates from Shanghai to the U.S. West and East Coast ports were $4,120/FEU and $6,745/FEU, reflecting decreases of 26.5% and 2.8% respectively [2] - The company anticipates shipping costs may drop below $3,000/FEU, but if they rise to $6,000, profit margins could be significantly impacted [2] Tariff Outlook - The company predicts that after the 90-day "window period," tariffs may stabilize around 40%-50%, potentially erasing profits if retail prices remain unchanged [2] - The company is cautious about the foreign trade environment and believes that ongoing policy changes require careful observation [2] Business Strategy - The company has decided to maintain current operations and not expand investments until the market situation stabilizes [4] - The company has a seven-month inventory turnover and plans to deplete this stock before making further production decisions based on policy changes [4] - If tariffs exceed expectations, the company may consider exiting the U.S. market, which is currently its largest, while the European market is significantly smaller [4] Market Conditions - The company has incurred losses due to increased costs from air freight, which added $200,000 to expenses [3] - The company is exploring e-commerce in Mexico with an initial investment of 100,000 yuan to test market viability [2][4] - Concerns about the stability of the Mexican market remain a significant consideration for the company's expansion plans [2]

尽管日本首相石破茂与特朗普在加拿大G7峰会前夕三次通话讨论关税，但本周双方仍未达成协议。 赤泽亮正周五称，他目前尚未安排与美国同行的下一轮谈判，并说日本"不会为对话设具体死线"，且再 次将贸易磋商比作"雾中前行"——这是他在G7峰会前使用的表述。 他还暗示，中东局势紧张等事务分散了美国注意力，可能导致美方"难以为日美谈判分配足够时间推动 实质进展，双方均面临此状况，关税谈判并非唯一议程。" 在赤泽亮正表态前一日，石破茂与反对党领袖会面，席间透露"日美汽车贸易顺差"是谈判症结。与其他 国家一样，日本汽车及零部件被加征25%关税，钢铁铝产品则面临50%税率。 "日美均有不可妥协的国家利益，保护汽车产业利润是日本核心诉求。"赤泽亮正强调。 日本最高贸易谈判代表表示，日本不会紧盯所谓"对等关税"恢复最高税率的日期，这表明这个亚洲国家 已经做好了谈判可能会拖延的准备。 "为避免误解，我需明确我从未说过7月9日是日美谈判的最后期限。"日本经济振兴大臣赤泽亮正 （Ryosei Akazawa）周五在东京对记者表示，"日美正通过多种渠道定期沟通，将持续探讨最有效方案 并展开恰当磋商。" 当被问及"日本是否寻求延长全面关税起征 ...

日本首席贸易谈判代表赤泽亮正表示，他不会对与美国的双边贸易谈判设定具体时间表。美国总统特朗 普的"对等关税"将于7月9日对许多国家恢复到原来水平；对日本而言，意味着关税税率将从目前的10% 升至24%。 ...