光伏ETF华夏（515370）跟踪中证光伏产业指数，涉及光伏产业链上、中、下游企业，包括硅片、多晶 硅、电池片、电缆、光伏玻璃、电池组件、逆变器、光伏支架和光伏电站等，能够更好的反映光伏产业 整体表现。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 目前，光伏行业基本面已经初步改善。中国光伏行业协会监测的数据显示，多晶硅现货价格从3.54万 元/吨升至5.36万元/吨，组件招标均价稳步回升。与此同时，2025年第三季度，不少企业现金流环比改 善，个别企业已实现扭亏。 中原证券认为，2026年光伏行业进入持续的产能出清周期，后续围绕"反内卷"的产品价格销售措施、企 业间并购整合、行业准入门槛的提高以及产品质量标准提高的影响将会逐步显现。光伏行业竞争格局和 产业链生态有望优化，存量光伏企业业绩将呈逐步改善趋势。公募基金对光伏板块配置处于低位，低估 值和供需格局改善有望吸引跟多资金配置。 12月23日，光伏ETF华夏（515370）上涨0.22%，持仓股阿特斯涨超6%，微导纳米涨超5%，捷佳伟创 涨超3%。资金面上，光伏ETF华夏（515370）近二十日流入超9亿元。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For glass in 2026, it is expected that both supply and demand will decline. The demand decline rate is expected to narrow, and the industry profit pressure caused by the real - estate chain's capital problem remains to be resolved. Attention should be paid to the valuation elasticity brought by the supply side, and the cost line supports the price. The FG05 contract valuation refers to [1000, 1280] and is adjusted dynamically according to the cost [5][64]. - For soda ash in 2026, it is expected that supply will decrease and demand will increase, and the fundamentals will be marginally repaired. However, the digestion of the high - inventory contradiction still faces challenges. The differentiation between light and heavy soda ash may continue, and the price may be under pressure throughout the year, with a possible phased improvement during the maintenance season [6][121]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Glass 2026 Annual Report 3.1.1 Glass 2025 Review: Industry Clearance Game under Weak Demand - In 2025, weak demand was the fundamental contradiction in the glass industry. The over - supply pattern and high upstream and mid - stream inventory pressures led to the spot price fluctuating around the cost. Throughout the year, the price showed a downward - rebound - downward trend, and the inventory transfer from upstream to mid - stream was an important driver for the price increase [14][15]. 3.1.2 Glass 2026 Outlook - **Demand**: The decline in glass demand in 2026 is expected to narrow. Real - estate demand will continue to decline but at a slower pace. The growth rate of the automobile industry will slow down, and the output of home appliances may decline year - on - year. It is expected that the apparent demand for glass in 2026 will decline by 5% [21][26]. - **Supply**: The glass supply is expected to decline first and then increase in 2026. The overall supply is expected to be around 5515 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 4.5%. The industry may experience further clearance in the short term due to weak demand and high inventory, and the cost may rise in the long term due to energy transformation policies [54][60]. 3.1.3 Glass Balance Sheet and Strategy Outlook - In 2026, both supply and demand of float glass are expected to decline. More attention should be paid to the valuation elasticity brought by the supply side. The absolute price floor is around 950 yuan/ton, fluctuating with the cost. The FG05 contract valuation refers to [1000, 1280] and is adjusted according to the cost [64]. 3.2 Soda Ash 2026 Report 3.2.1 Soda Ash 2025 Price Review: The Decline of the Soda Ash Price Center Gradually Slowed - In the first half of 2025, the soda ash price declined due to over - supply and falling raw material costs. In the second half, the industry moved from over - supply to a wide - balance state, and the price stopped falling and rebounded. The inventory of the soda ash industry first increased and then decreased [72]. 3.2.2 Soda Ash 2026 Outlook - **Supply**: The soda ash industry is still in the capacity expansion cycle in 2026, but the production increase rhythm slows down. New production capacity at the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026 will increase the supply pressure, and the industry may continue to clear capacity. The valuation is expected to be repaired by supply - side adjustment, and the upper limit of the valuation should be concerned about the resumption of marginal production capacity [99][101]. - **Light Soda Ash Demand**: In 2025, the demand for light soda ash was strong. In 2026, it is expected that the traditional downstream will maintain a growth rate of 4.5 - 5.0%, and the demand from lithium carbonate and exports will continue to increase. The weekly average apparent demand for light soda ash is expected to be around 34 - 34.5 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 7% [106]. - **Heavy Soda Ash Demand**: In 2025, the supply and demand of photovoltaic glass both declined. In 2026, the global new photovoltaic installation growth rate is expected to slow down, and the rigid demand for photovoltaic glass is expected to decline. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is expected to fluctuate between 8.5 - 9.3 tons per day, and the annual production is expected to decline by about 1% to 3228 tons, corresponding to a rigid demand of 581 tons for heavy soda ash [111][113]. - **Import and Export**: In 2025, China's soda ash exports increased significantly, and imports decreased sharply. In 2026, it is expected that the large - scale export and closed import window pattern will continue, and the annual net export volume is expected to be between 240 - 260 tons [117][118]. 3.2.3 Soda Ash Balance Sheet and Strategy Outlook - In 2026, the supply of soda ash is expected to decrease and demand to increase, and the fundamentals will be marginally repaired. However, the high - inventory problem still needs to be resolved. The price may be under pressure throughout the year, with a possible phased improvement during the maintenance season. The spot price of soda ash may continue to be in the industry cost range, and attention should be paid to the lower and upper limits of the valuation and the seasonal supply decline during the maintenance season [121].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年12月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.8万吨，环比持平。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为7.5万吨，环比增长4.17%.需求有所抬升. 多晶硅库存为29.3万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为43900吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为1359元/吨，处于盈 利状态，其综合开工率为74.68%，环比持平，高于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.31万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为208元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为602.05元/吨，再生铝开工率为59.8%，还比减少2.76%,处 于高位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧 ...

12月17日，华西证券最新研报指出，当前A股市场正经历结构性切换，在科技板块轮动动能减弱背景 下，消费板块"高低切换"逻辑有望成为跨年行情核心主线。研报建议投资者重点关注三大方向：政策驱 动的消费升级、超跌红利资产修复以及新能源产业链的长期价值。 随着12月市场对科技股追高意愿降温，资金开始寻找新突破口。11月社会消费品零售总额增速放缓至 3.9%，但中央经济工作会议明确将"坚持内需主导"列为2026年首要任务，引发市场对消费刺激政策加码 的强烈预期。华西证券认为，白酒（贵州茅台、五粮液）、家电（美的集团、格力电器）、汽车（比亚 迪、长城汽车）等低位消费蓝筹存在估值修复空间，而跨境电商（小商品城、华凯易佰）等新兴消费领 域或受益政策红利。 尽管11月21日板块集体下挫后尚未完全修复，但华西证券强调，光伏（隆基绿能、TCL中环）、储能 （宁德时代、阳光电源）、新能源汽车等细分领域的基本面支撑依然扎实。随着行业产能出清加速和技 术迭代推进，具备全球竞争力的龙头企业有望率先受益，建议重点关注技术壁垒较高的电池环节和智能 化转型领先的整车企业。 研报提出"核心资产+弹性标的"组合策略：消费板块以食品饮料、家电为底仓， ...

Core Viewpoint - The current core issue in the soda ash market has shifted from simple price fluctuations to a cost competition among different production processes [1][14]. Market Dynamics - As of December 16, 2025, the main contract for soda ash (SA401) closed at 1463 yuan/ton, down 2.66%, indicating ongoing volatility around the cost line [2]. - The price range of 1160 to 1190 yuan/ton has been observed, with total domestic soda ash inventory at 1.4943 million tons, remaining historically high despite a slight decrease in social inventory [5]. - The supply side has seen reduced operating rates due to losses and maintenance, while demand from the float glass industry has weakened due to ongoing losses [5][6]. Cost Structure - The production of soda ash is primarily divided into three processes: ammonia-soda process, soda-lime process, and natural soda process, with significant cost differences [14]. - The natural soda process can maintain costs below 1000 yuan/ton, while the soda-lime process has a cost center around 1050 to 1200 yuan/ton, and the ammonia-soda process exceeds 1300 yuan/ton [14]. - Companies using the ammonia-soda process are facing severe losses, leading to difficult decisions regarding production and maintenance [15]. Market Behavior - Low-cost producers are adopting strategies to increase market share, while high-cost producers are caught in a "prisoner's dilemma," where reducing production could lead to loss of market share [16]. - The industry consensus is forming around the need for high-cost capacity to exit the market to restore supply-demand balance [17]. Trading Strategies - The trading logic is evolving due to the lack of clear trends, with participants focusing on basis, price spreads, and process profits [19]. - Companies are shifting to dynamic and proportional hedging strategies, adjusting their positions based on price movements relative to production costs [20]. - The options market is becoming more active, providing new tools for companies and investors to manage uncertainty [21].

Core Viewpoint - The pure soda ash market is experiencing a tug-of-war around the cost line, with prices fluctuating between 1050 to 1200 RMB/ton, impacting the profitability of different production processes [2][10]. Market Dynamics - The main contract SA401 for pure soda ash has been trading in a narrow range, closing at 1126 RMB/ton on December 15, 2025, after hitting a low of 1094 RMB/ton a week earlier [2][3]. - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was reported at 1.4943 million tons as of December 11, 2025, indicating high stock levels despite a slight decrease in social inventory [3]. - The supply side is facing challenges as some companies reduce production due to losses, while demand from the float glass industry is weakening due to ongoing losses and increased cold repair plans [3][4]. Cost Structure and Production Methods - The cost structure of soda ash production varies significantly among different methods: natural soda ash can be produced for under 1000 RMB/ton, while the dominant synthetic soda ash method has a cost center around 1050 to 1200 RMB/ton, and older ammonia-soda methods exceed 1300 RMB/ton [10][11]. - Companies using the ammonia-soda method are facing severe financial pressure, with some considering early maintenance shutdowns to mitigate losses [11][12]. Market Sentiment and Trading Strategies - Market sentiment is mixed, with participants oscillating between hope and reality, leading to a low-level wide fluctuation trend in prices [7][8]. - Traditional trend-following strategies are failing, prompting a shift towards more complex trading strategies focused on basis, price spreads, and production process profits [14][15]. - The market is seeing a rise in options trading as participants seek to hedge against volatility, with a notable increase in the use of dynamic and proportional hedging strategies [15][16]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the weak fundamentals of the soda ash market will continue, with expectations of a bearish trend in the short term due to persistent oversupply pressures [4][13]. - The industry consensus is forming around the need for high-cost production capacity to exit the market to restore balance, with participants awaiting a significant clearing signal [13].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年12月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.8万吨，环比持平。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为7.5万吨，环比增长4.17%.需求有所抬升. 多晶硅库存为29.3万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为43900吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为1359元/吨，处于盈 利状态，其综合开工率为74.68%，环比持平，高于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.31万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为276元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为639.29元/吨，再生铝开工率为59.8%，还比减少2.76%,处 于高位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧 ...

Group 1 - The egg-laying chicken farming industry has entered a capacity clearing cycle, but the process will be prolonged due to the enhanced risk resistance of large-scale farming entities [1] - Since 2017, the egg-laying industry has experienced two significant phases of excessive culling, occurring in 2017 and 2020, driven by profit pressures [1] - In 2025, the level of losses in the egg-laying industry is expected to be comparable to that of 2020, with cumulative reductions in culling age approaching levels seen in 2017, yet the stock remains high [1] Group 2 - The market's supply and demand expectations influence the shape of the term structure, transitioning from a steep Contango to a flat Contango and eventually to a Back structure as prices reverse from the bottom [2] - The current egg futures market is in a Contango state, with the steepening trend due to hesitance in the culling process, and this low-near, high-far structure is expected to continue until supply-demand rebalancing occurs [2] - The overall industry is in a slow clearing phase, influenced by multiple factors including culling pace, restocking willingness, and market expectations, which require ongoing monitoring [2]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 华联期货玻璃纯碱年报 纯碱产能延续扩张，玻璃有望加速出清 20251215 1 观点及策略 2 行情回顾 3 国外经济 4 国内经济 5 基本面分析 6 技术面分析 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 孙伟涛 0769-222110802 从业资格号：F0276620 交易咨询号：Z0014688 审核：姜世东，从业资格号:F03126164，交易咨询号：Z0020059 玻璃观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 观点及策略 纯碱观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 u 2026年纯碱市场将延续供需宽松格局，新增产能释放压力与存量产能调整并存。远兴能源二期天然碱项 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 2025年12月15日 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.8万吨，环比持平。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为7.5万吨，环比增长4.17%.需求有所抬升. 多晶硅库存为29.3万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为43900吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为1359元/吨，处于盈 利状态，其综合开工率为74.68%，环比持平，高于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.31万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为188元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为624.45元/吨，再生铝开工率为59.8%，还比减少2.76%,处 于高位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧 ...