上周，在几轮你来我往的试探后，欧盟宣布将对美国加征关税实施反制措施，并向世界贸易组织提起诉 讼。美国一些人挑起的这场贸易争端不仅令两大经济体利益产生直接碰撞，更折射出全球经济在贸易保 护主义冲击下面临的深层次矛盾。从美国极限施压到欧盟决定反制，中间还掺杂着英国"另辟蹊径"式的 对美妥协，欧美贸易争端在复杂局面下或陷入拉锯战。 美国则持续通过极限施压与分化瓦解的策略交替对欧盟施压。一方面，美国关税目前覆盖了欧盟对美商 品贸易的70%，在美国对药品、半导体和其他产品进行进一步调查后，这一比例可能会上升到97%，美 国仍在通过持续制造经济压力迫使欧盟让步；另一方面，美国也试图通过各个击破方式瓦解欧盟，如拉 拢意大利等成员国，利用德法在汽车产业、农业补贴上的分歧制造内部裂痕。5月8日，美国甚至在诸多 细节尚未敲定、此前加征的10%所谓"对等关税"也未取消的情况下，迫不及待地宣布"美国与英国达成 一项新的贸易协议，部分撤回特定领域的关税，进一步扩大双方产品的市场准入"。这套美式"大棒加胡 萝卜"组合拳，本质上是在将经贸问题政治化，将双边谈判转化为更加复杂的地缘博弈，好方便一些人 浑水摸鱼。 欧盟和美国之间存在不少短期内 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global financial market is experiencing turbulence due to a combination of sovereign debt crises, divergent monetary policies, geopolitical conflicts, and commodity price fluctuations, creating a complex risk transmission chain [1] Debt Risk - Global public debt has reached 93.2% of GDP in 2023, an increase of 9 percentage points since before the pandemic, with Argentina, Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan, and Japan identified as the most likely candidates for financial crises in the next 6-12 months [3] - High-debt countries are pressured to refinance existing debt, but rising global interest rates are increasing financing costs and compressing fiscal space, which could lead to a liquidity crunch if emerging markets experience a wave of defaults [4] Policy Divergence - There is an increasing divergence in global monetary policy, characterized by the Federal Reserve maintaining a tight stance while other central banks are forced to adjust their policies [5] - The tightening of dollar liquidity and potential crises in Japanese bonds could exacerbate pressures on highly leveraged financial institutions [6] Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical conflicts are impacting financial markets through energy price volatility and supply chain disruptions [9] - The price of gold reached a historical high of $3,440 per ounce in May 2025, reflecting investor concerns about tail risks associated with geopolitical tensions [10] Market Performance - Global stock markets are showing mixed performance, with safe-haven assets and risk assets diverging significantly [11] - The Hong Kong stock market is benefiting from expectations of a recovery in Chinese domestic demand and improved US-China trade relations, while commodities are under pressure due to weak demand and insufficient hedging against geopolitical risks [12] Investment Strategies - The financial market is currently navigating through debt risks, policy divergence, and geopolitical tensions, necessitating a dynamic perspective to identify transformation opportunities [13] - Energy prices are experiencing "zigzag fluctuations" due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and escalating Middle Eastern tensions, with WTI crude oil prices down 23.47% year-on-year [14] - The Hong Kong stock market's Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 3.08%, with technology and new energy vehicle companies leading the gains [15]

将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 2025年4月16-18日，北京海淀，共赴中国私募股权投资行业盛会。 来源丨投中网 在时代的浩渺长河中，"分化"宛如一条隐匿的脉络，贯穿于万物的生长、发展与变迁。从生命的进化 到文明的演进，分化带来差异，差异催生竞争，竞争孕育新物种。在这看似无序的分化浪潮中，却蕴 含着最深刻的秩序与规律，它是理解世界、探索未知的关键钥匙。 当下，一级市场正步入"分化"的高潮。市场机制的自我调节与政策的有力引导相互交织，推动着行业 的优化与升级。这不仅是一场行业格局的重塑，更是一次价值观、理念和策略的深度变革。在分化的 大潮中，市场参与者们面临着前所未有的机遇与挑战。那些能够敏锐捕捉到"适时的变异"、率先开启 创新探索之路的机构与个人，或许将在未来的投资舞台上脱颖而出，成为引领时代的弄潮儿。 在"分化深刻进行"的当下， 作为中国私募股权投资市场上持续19年的行业盛会，由投中信息、投中 网主办，北京中关村科学城创新发展有限公司和北京中关村创业大街科技服务有限公司协办，以" 分 化"为主题的"第19届中国投资年会·年度峰会" 将于 4月16日至18日 在北京海淀盛大举办。 这是一场 汇 ...