Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Future market is more affected by geopolitical situation, and attention should be paid to the Fed's decision early on Thursday. In general, the short - term market is affected by news and capital sentiment, and the market maintains a relatively strong volatile trend. Gold long positions should take the opportunity to take profits at high prices, and one - sided trading can buy out - of - the - money call options instead of long positions [1]. - For silver, rising raw material costs may accelerate enterprises to replace silver with other metals, suppressing industrial demand, while new demand in fields such as AI is expected to support the silver price. Regulatory restrictions have cooled speculative sentiment, and ETF holdings have continued to decline. Short - term silver prices may still experience large - scale fluctuations, and it is recommended to pay attention to risk control measures of exchanges and maintain the idea of buying on dips with light positions [1]. - Platinum and palladium are supported by their macro - financial attributes and tight supply patterns, and their prices are linked to the rise of gold, with the price center continuously rising. However, the easing of supply tightness in the London spot market may limit the upside space, and it is recommended to buy on dips and sell on rallies within a day [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Domestic Futures Closing Prices - On January 27, the AU2604 contract closed at 1148.38 yuan/gram, up 0.44% from the previous day; the AG2604 contract closed at 28300 yuan/kilogram, up 4.02%; the PT2606 contract closed at 705.70 yuan/gram, down 5.24%; the PD2606 contract closed at 523.00 yuan, down 2.21% [1]. 2. Foreign Futures Closing Prices - On January 27, the COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 5179.60, up 3.49%; the COMEX白银主力 contract closed at 112.35, up 8.14%; the NYMEX铂金主力 contract closed at 2645.10, up 2.70%; the NYMEX palladium主力 contract closed at 1950.50, down 2.11% [1]. 3. Spot Prices - The current price of London gold is 5180.23, up 3.40%; London silver is 111.91, up 7.73%; spot platinum is 2642.50, down 5.99%; spot palladium is 1932.00, down 7.65%. The Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D is 1142.89 yuan/gram, down 0.12%; silver T + D is 28732 yuan/kilogram, up 4.43%; platinum 9995 is 751 yuan/gram, down 6.48% [1]. 4. Basis - The current value of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 is - 5.49, down 6.43% from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10%; silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 is 432, up 126, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 60.60%; London gold - COMEX gold is 5.08, up 6.87, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 99.60%; London silver - COMEX silver is - 0.02, down 0.10, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 69.00% [1]. 5. Price Ratios - The current value of COMEX gold/silver is 46.10, down 4.30%; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold/silver is 40.58, down 3.44%; NYMEX platinum/palladium is 1.36, up 4.91%; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum/palladium is 1.35, down 3.10% [1]. 6. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.24, up 0.5%; the 2 - year US Treasury yield is 3.53, down 0.8%; the 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield is 1.90, unchanged; the US dollar index is 95.77, down 1.32%; the offshore RMB exchange rate is 6.9336, down 0.22% [1]. 7. Inventory and Positions - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory is 103029, unchanged; silver inventory is 544244 (in ten - grams), down 5.15%; COMEX gold inventory is 35941502, unchanged; COMEX silver inventory is 415146297, down 0.02%; COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts are 18847080 ounces, up 0.01%; COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts are 113269767, down 0.87%; SPRD gold ETF holdings are 1087, up 0.08%; SLV silver ETF holdings are 15848, down 0.79% [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the ongoing bull market in precious metals, particularly gold and silver, driven by geopolitical tensions and the current U.S. administration's policies [1][4][14] - Gold has surged nearly $1,000 since the beginning of the year, marking a rise of over 20%, with a target of $5,200 already reached [9][14] - Silver has also seen significant volatility, with a recent peak of $117.7, and a target of $120 approaching [13][14] Group 2 - The market is experiencing extreme fluctuations, with both bullish and bearish sentiments leading to rapid price movements [3][9][13] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange has adjusted margin requirements for silver, platinum, and palladium, which may impact market dynamics [8] - Key support levels for gold are identified between $5,100 and $5,080, while resistance levels are projected at $5,200 and above [11][14] Group 3 - The analysis suggests that the current bull market may face corrections, with potential for significant downward movements once the driving news subsides [9][13] - Long-term strategies recommend maintaining positions in physical assets while also preparing for short-term trading opportunities to maximize profits [14] - The outlook for gold remains bullish, with projections for a super bull market targeting $6,000 to $6,200 [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market has complex trends with different varieties showing various performances such as oscillation, strength, or weakness, and is affected by multiple factors including geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes [3]. 3. Summary by Variety Metals - **Zinc (ZN2603)**: Oscillation with a bullish bias, overseas smelting cost increase drives the price up, hold cross - market reverse arbitrage [3]. - **Methanol (MA2605)**: Oscillation with a bullish bias, pay attention to geopolitical changes and take profit on long positions when the situation eases [3]. - **Iron Ore (I2605)**: Weak adjustment, Vale's accident but the price is still under pressure, short positions can be set up around 800 [3]. - **Palm Oil (P2605)**: Short - term bullish, may try to break through 9300 [3]. - **Gold (AU2604)**: Bullish oscillation, take profit on long positions at high prices, buy out - of - the - money call options [3]. - **Copper (CU2603)**: CL premium narrows and spot discount widens, take profit on long positions at high prices, and focus on the 99000 - 100000 support level [3]. - **Aluminum (AL2603)**: The dollar drops to a four - year low, driving the price up strongly. Wait for a pullback to set up long positions in the 23500 - 25000 range [3]. - **Tin (SN2603)**: The price rises at the end of the session but spot trading is cold. Be cautious in the short - term, consider low - buying after the sentiment stabilizes [3]. - **Nickel (NI2602)**: The driving force is limited after the news is digested, conduct range - bound trading in the 140000 - 150000 range [3]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2603)**: Oscillation adjustment, the main contract ranges from 14200 to 15000 [3]. - **Industrial Silicon (Si2605)**: Spot price stabilizes, futures price rises and then falls, the main contract ranges from 8200 to 9200 [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **PX (PX2603)**: High - level oscillation before the holiday, short - term range is 7100 - 7500, bullish in the medium - term [3]. - **PTA (TA2605)**: High - level oscillation before the holiday, short - term range is 5100 - 5400, bullish in the medium - term [3]. - **Short - fiber (PF2603)**: Follow raw materials, do positive arbitrage in TA5 - 9, shrink processing fees at high levels [3]. - **Bottle Chips (PR2603)**: Multiple devices are under maintenance and factories are destocking, processing fees are supported, ranging from 400 - 550 yuan/ton [3]. - **Ethanol (EG2605)**: Positive arbitrage opportunity, sell out - of - the - money put options EG2605 - P - 3800 at high prices [3]. - **Pure Benzene (BZ2603)**: Supply - demand improves but high inventory suppresses, wait and see, shrink the EB - BZ spread at high prices [3]. - **Styrene (EB2603)**: Supply - demand weakens and high valuation pressures the price, wait and see, shrink the EB - BZ spread at high prices [3]. - **LLDPE (L2605)**: Trading volume decreases, wait and see [3]. - **PP (PP2605)**: Supply - demand is weak, price oscillates, wait and see [3]. - **Caustic Soda (SH2603)**: Supply pressure is high, price center moves down, short on rebounds [3]. - **PVC (V2605)**: May enter wide - range oscillation, short - term low - buying, wait and see on short positions [3]. - **Urea (UR2605)**: Take profit on long positions, short at high prices [3]. - **Soda Ash (SA2605)**: Oscillation is weak, wait and see [3]. - **Glass (FG2605)**: Supply - demand is weak, pay attention to production lines and inventory changes, wait and see [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2605)**: Strong bottom support, range oscillation [3]. - **Live Pigs (FH2603)**: Supply - demand game intensifies, range oscillation [3]. - **Corn (C2603)**: Oscillation [3]. - **Sugar (SR2605)**: Spot trading slows down, range - bound with a bearish bias [3]. - **Cotton (CF2605)**: Spot is stable, pay attention to the support at 14400 - 14500 [3]. - **Eggs (JD2603)**: Spot is stable with a bullish bias, range oscillation [3]. - **Apples (AP2605)**: Demand increases, participate in the rebound with a light position [3]. - **Red Dates (CJ2605)**: Stocking is nearing the end, range - bound with a bearish bias [3]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures (IF2603, IC2603, IH2603, IM2603)**: Broad - based indexes oscillate in a range, theme industries rise structurally, control portfolio risks and reduce long positions [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures (T2603, TF2603, TS2603, TL2603)**: The bond market is in an oscillatory pattern, conduct range - bound operations, and pay attention to positive arbitrage in TL and T contracts [3]. - **Precious Metals Futures (AU2604, AG2604, PT2606, PD2606)**: The price trends of precious metals diverge, take profit on gold long positions at high prices, and be careful with silver and platinum [3]. Building Materials - **Steel (RB2605)**: Steel price is stable, the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar widens, hold long positions on the spread [3]. - **Coking Coal (JM2605)**: Coal prices in Shanxi loosen, Mongolian coal price falls from a high, take a bearish view on single - side trading, do long coking coal and short coke [3]. - **Coke (J2605)**: Coke price increase is hard to implement, take a bearish view on single - side trading, do long coking coal and short coke [3]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon (SF603)**: No major supply - demand contradiction, cost may rise, wide - range oscillation [3]. - **Manganese Silicon (SM605)**: Ore replenishment is nearly over, supply - demand improves, wide - range oscillation [3]. - **Alumina (AO2605)**: Local alumina plants have frequent overhauls, sell out - of - the - money put options at the price lower limit and short at high prices [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have recently reached historical highs around 5111 but have experienced corrections, with fluctuations influenced by global economic recovery, inflation, and geopolitical tensions [1][3] - The market sentiment is mixed, with support for gold stemming from ongoing economic uncertainties and inflationary pressures in some countries, while the strength of the US dollar and unclear timelines for potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts pose challenges [1] - Technically, gold maintains a bullish trend on the daily chart, but momentum has weakened after consecutive gains, indicating a potential for short-term corrections [1] Group 2 - Short-term support levels for gold are identified at 5010-5015 and 4985-4990, with a strategy focused on buying on dips rather than assuming a trend reversal during corrections [3] - The recommended trading strategy includes light buying at 5010-5015, with additional purchases at 4990-4995, setting a stop-loss at 4986, and targeting levels between 5090-5100 [3]

| 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【行情回顾】 | 2 | | | 【市场展望】 | 2 | | | 【策略推荐】 | 2 | | 第二部分 | 行情复盘 | 3 | | | 一、年后现货拐点逐渐确立后步入下跌通道，近远月驱动出现分化 | 3 | | 第三部分 | 基本面情况 | 5 | | | 一、集运市场开始步入传统货运淡季，现货运价出现拐点后进入下跌通道. | 5 | | | 二、年末集装箱新船交付量出现大幅抬升，关注新年集装箱新船下水情况 | | | | | 10 | | 三、12 | 月中国出口数据强势收官，出口结构表现继续分化 | 21 | | 第四部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 | 28 | 航运板块研发报告 集运指数（欧线）月报 2026 年 1 月 27 日 1 月现货拐点已现，关注地缘动态进展 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 运价方面，1 月现货高点已现，旺季货量筑顶回落后，主流船司相继调降现 货报价，现货运价步入快速下跌通道中，截至 2026 年 1 月 23 日，SCFI 欧线报 1595 美金/TEU，已经连续三周下跌。预计节后集 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The current spot freight rates in the container shipping market are in a downward trend during the off - season, and the rush of shipments due to export tax rebates is less than expected, making it difficult to reverse the decline. The EC2604 contract has a discount, and the subsequent spot situation should be monitored. The geopolitical situation is complex, and it is still difficult for large - scale resumption of shipping on the European route in the first half of the year. The risk of the Iranian situation remains, so short - term unilateral trading is recommended to wait and see, and the 6 - 10 positive spread arbitrage should be held [6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Route) - **Futures Market** - Different futures contracts of the container freight index (European route) have different closing prices, price changes, trading volume changes, and open interest changes. For example, the EC2602 contract closed at 1,717.5 points, down 9.2 points or - 0.53%, with a trading volume of 984.0 lots (up 74.16%) and an open interest of 3,495.0 lots (down 17.28%) [4]. - The month - spread structure also shows different price differences and their changes. For example, the price difference between EC02 - EC04 is 524, down 2.9 [4]. - **Container Freight Rates** - Various container freight rates show different degrees of decline on a weekly basis. For example, the SCFIS European route index is 1859.31 points, down 4.86% week - on - week and 24.61% year - on - year. The SCFI comprehensive index is 1457.86 points, down 7.39% week - on - week and 36.36% year - on - year [4]. - **Fuel Costs** - The prices of WTI crude oil near - month and Brent crude oil near - month also show declines. The WTI crude oil near - month price is 60.64 dollars/barrel, down 0.57% week - on - week and 17.89% year - on - year. The Brent crude oil near - month price is 64.9 dollars/barrel, down 0.83% week - on - week and 16.2% year - on - year [4]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Analysis** - The spot freight rates are in the off - season decline, and the rush of shipments due to the export tax rebate policy is less than expected. The 1/23 SCFI European route quote is 1595 dollars/TEU, down 4.83% week - on - week. The latest SCFIS European route quote on Monday after the market is 1859.31 points, down 4.9% week - on - week, slightly lower than market expectations [6]. - From the fundamental perspective, the demand side is seeing a decline in cargo volume after reaching a peak, and the supply side shows a slight decrease in January's shipping capacity in Shanghai - Northern Europe 5 ports this week, with little change in February and March. The geopolitical situation is complex, and it is difficult for large - scale resumption of shipping on the European route in the first half of the year [7]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: Due to many short - term disturbances in the 04 contract, differences in the rush of shipments, and the unresolved risk of the Iranian situation, unilateral trading is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold the 6 - 10 positive spread arbitrage [9]. 3.3 Industry News - The US President Trump said that the Iranian situation is "changing rapidly", and he sent a "huge fleet" to the region, but he believes that Iran wants to reach an agreement [12]. - The US will increase tariffs on South Korean goods from 15% to 25% due to the South Korean Congress's non - approval of the trade agreement [12]. - India plans to significantly reduce the import tariff on EU cars from a maximum of 110% to 40%, and the future tariff may be further reduced to 10%, which may lead to the signing of a free trade agreement with the EU [12]. 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the SCFIS European route index and SCFIS US - West route index, SCFI comprehensive index, container freight rates of Shanghai - US West, Shanghai - US East, Shanghai - Europe, and the basis of EC02 and EC04 contracts [14][15][24].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that silver prices are experiencing significant volatility, with a notable increase in speculative trading, as evidenced by a nearly 14% daily rise and a gold-silver ratio dropping below 45, suggesting extreme market sentiment [3][7]. - On January 27, the closing price for silver futures was 28,300 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a daily increase of 7.25% with a trading volume of 1,038,738 contracts and an open interest of 310,210 contracts [1]. - The spot price for silver in Shanghai on January 27 was reported at 29,080 yuan per kilogram, indicating a premium of 780 yuan per kilogram over the futures price [3]. Group 2 - The market is entering a phase where emotional trading is dominating, leading to heightened volatility, particularly in silver, which poses risks for investors [7]. - Any signs of easing geopolitical tensions or changes in major central bank policies could trigger significant profit-taking and technical adjustments in the silver market [7]. - Investors are advised to consider substantial reductions in their positions to mitigate volatility risks associated with the current "emotional market" nature of silver [7].

请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 行业 原油日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 27 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1： | 行情回顾(美元/桶) | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Reports Polyolefins - Polyolefin prices are strong due to capital rotation into the chemical sector and geopolitical tensions. Fundamentally, supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventories are being depleted. PP supply pressure is relieved due to many maintenance activities, while PE faces pressure from reduced maintenance and import expectations [1]. Methanol - Methanol futures are oscillating strongly, but the basis is weakening, and trading volume is average. The methanol market has weak supply and demand, and the rebound space is restricted by high production. The port inventory is slightly depleted, but MTO demand is weak, suppressing price rebounds [4]. Natural Rubber - In the short - term, the natural rubber market has a strong sentiment to rise due to the strong performance of the synthetic rubber market. However, considering the weak demand, the upside is expected to be limited, with an operating range of 15,500 - 16,500 [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The marginal supply - demand of pure benzene is slightly improving, but the port inventory is unexpectedly increasing, limiting its self - driving force. Styrene has strong short - term performance due to export - driven inventory reduction, but the supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the price difference between styrene and pure benzene is expected to compress [10]. Urea - Urea futures are rising, and the spot market is mixed. The supply is sufficient, while the demand is weak, lacking effective support for price increases. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory, with the main contract focusing on the 1760 - 1800 range [12]. PVC - Caustic Soda - Caustic soda futures are slightly rebounding, but the spot price is declining. The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the upside of futures is expected to be limited. PVC futures are rising, but the supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and the upside is also expected to be restricted [13]. Glass - Soda Ash - Soda ash futures are oscillating, and the spot price is stable. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. Glass futures are also oscillating, with weak supply - demand during the pre - holiday off - season. Both need to be vigilant against potential price drops [14]. Crude Oil - Oil prices are mainly influenced by Middle - East geopolitics and the US cold wave. Although the cold wave's impact is weakening, geopolitical premiums still support oil prices [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX and PTA supply - demand are weakening before the Spring Festival, but have strong support in the second quarter. Ethylene glycol's supply - demand is weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term. Short - fiber's supply - demand is weak. Polyester bottle - chip's supply is decreasing, and the price and processing fee will follow the cost [18]. LPG - LPG prices are rising. The upstream refinery operating rate is increasing, while the downstream PDH operating rate is decreasing. The inventory situation is mixed, with the refinery inventory ratio increasing and the port inventory decreasing [19]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefins Price Changes - L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 closing prices all increased, with PP2609 rising 1.35% [1]. - Spot prices of East - China PP and North - China LLDPE also rose [1]. Inventory and Operating Rates - PE and PP enterprise inventories decreased, with PP enterprise inventory dropping 7.85% [1]. - PE device operating rate increased by 3.77%, while downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 3.42% [1]. Methanol Price Changes - MA2605 and MA2609 closing prices increased, and the basis weakened [4]. - Spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Henan, and Taicang all rose [4]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 2.78%, while port inventory increased by 1.55% [4]. - Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.64%, and downstream MTO device operating rate decreased by 1.56% [4]. Natural Rubber Price Changes - Yunnan state - owned whole - latex and Thai standard mixed rubber prices decreased slightly [7]. Production and Operating Rates - November production in some countries decreased, while December domestic tire production and export increased [7]. Inventory Changes - Bonded area inventory increased by 2.94%, while factory - warehouse futures inventory decreased by 2.49% [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Price Changes - Upstream crude oil and some raw material prices changed slightly, and styrene and pure benzene prices also had minor fluctuations [10]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports increased, and some operating rates in the industry chain changed [10]. Urea Price Changes - Futures prices rose, and the spot market was mixed [12]. Supply and Demand - Domestic urea daily production increased by 2.64%, and the demand was weak [12]. PVC - Caustic Soda Price Changes - Caustic soda spot prices declined, and PVC spot and futures prices increased [13]. Supply and Demand - Caustic soda supply - demand imbalance persisted, and PVC supply was high with weak demand [13]. Glass - Soda Ash Price Changes - Glass and soda ash futures prices increased slightly, and spot prices were stable [14]. Supply and Demand - Soda ash production was high, and glass production and sales were average during the pre - holiday off - season [14]. Crude Oil Price Changes - Brent and WTI prices decreased slightly, while SC increased by 2.62% [15]. Influencing Factors - Oil prices were affected by geopolitical tensions and the US cold wave [15]. Polyester Industry Chain Price Changes - Upstream and downstream product prices in the polyester industry chain changed to varying degrees [18]. Inventory and Operating Rates - MEG port inventory increased, and some operating rates in the industry chain decreased [18]. LPG Price Changes - LPG futures prices increased, and the basis weakened [19]. Inventory and Operating Rates - LPG refinery inventory ratio increased, and port inventory decreased. The upstream operating rate increased, and the downstream PDH operating rate decreased [19].

【冠通期货研究报告】 软商品日报：溢价回落，注意支撑 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 26 日 棉花：国际棉市缺乏明显利好因素指引，在美联储降息预期弱化，地缘局势 持续变化，以及外围谷物市场走低拖累下，棉价连续回落。上周国内外棉纱价格 均小幅上涨，负值价差继续扩大。替代原料价格小幅涨跌。现货市场基差报价小 幅回升，市场成交价格基本平稳。棉企库存较为充裕，积极报价促销，纺企逢下 跌点价增加，上涨过程中成交有所减少，年前补库进入最后阶段，局部成交略增。 下方空间相对有限，短期偏调整看待为主。 白糖：国际糖市多空力量进入短暂均衡状态。一方面，当前国际糖价仍显著 低于印度出口成本，该国增产压力向国际市场的传导效应相对有限；叠加巴西乙 醇折糖溢价突破 2 美分/磅，原糖远期供需结构得到边际改善，对期价形成支撑； 另一方面，全球食糖增产预期主导的供应压制仍在持续，原糖期价上行动能不足， 冲击 15 美分/磅关键压力位未果，最终整体维持区间震荡走势。 本报告发布机构 --冠通期货股份有限公司（已获中国证监会许可的期货交易咨询业务资格） 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任 经测 ...