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Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts, but it still holds potential for upward movement in prices [1][3][7]. Market Performance - Last week, international gold opened at $3450.30 per ounce, reached a high of $3451.04, and then fell to a low of $3340.21, closing at $3368.02, resulting in a weekly decline of $65.72 or 1.91% [1][3]. - The weekly trading range was $110.83, indicating volatility despite the overall downward trend [1]. Geopolitical and Economic Influences - Escalating geopolitical tensions and the lack of resolution have pressured gold prices, leading traders to lock in profits after reaching an 8-week high [3][6]. - U.S. economic data has been weaker than expected, reinforcing market expectations for interest rate cuts, which could support gold prices [3][6]. Central Bank Activity - Central banks are expected to continue purchasing gold, which is a significant factor supporting gold demand despite geopolitical and economic pressures [6][7]. - The Federal Reserve's projected interest rate cuts in the second half of the year are anticipated to further bolster gold prices [6][7]. Technical Analysis - The gold price remains above the 5-10 week moving averages, indicating a bullish trend, with potential for new highs [1][10]. - The monthly chart shows that gold has maintained its upward trajectory since last year, suggesting a continued bullish outlook [9][10]. Future Outlook - The market anticipates that gold prices could potentially exceed $4000 per ounce within the next year, driven by ongoing geopolitical risks and central bank purchases [7][6]. - Short-term strategies suggest looking for buying opportunities on dips, with key support levels identified around $3367 and $3355 [12].

Group 1 - The week has been particularly challenging for gold bulls, not due to significant price drops, but because geopolitical tensions have not supported gold prices, leading to a sharp decline [3][5] - Gold experienced a significant drop, with a maximum decline of $112, reaching a low of $3340 during the week, and closing with a small gain on Friday [3][8] - The upcoming week is critical for gold, with the $3340 level being a key support point; if it breaks down, further declines to the $3300-$3295 range may occur [8][10] Group 2 - The situation in Iran is escalating, with the U.S. conducting airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, which could lead to significant impacts on oil and gold prices if the situation deteriorates further [5][6] - The United Nations Security Council is convening an emergency meeting regarding the U.S. strikes on Iran, indicating the seriousness of the geopolitical situation [6] - Iran has threatened retaliation, which could further destabilize the region and impact global markets [5][6] Group 3 - The oil market has seen significant volatility, with recent weeks experiencing major price fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions, particularly related to Iran [14] - If oil prices open high, traders may consider short positions initially, but the overall sentiment remains bullish as geopolitical factors could drive prices higher [14] - The dollar index has shown signs of stabilization, with a potential target range of 101.5 to 102, indicating a possible rebound in the currency [17]

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced a decline on June 19, opening at $3,392.74 per ounce, reaching a high of $3,395.71, a low of $3,347.48, and closing at $3,369.18 [1] News Highlights - The EU is pushing for a trade agreement with the US similar to the UK's, with Europe increasingly willing to accept a 10% baseline tariff [2] - Canada will adjust its existing counter-tariffs on US steel and aluminum products on July 21 [3] Geopolitical Situation - Reports indicate that President Trump is cautious about bombing Iran, partly due to concerns that a regime change could lead to a situation similar to Libya. The decision on whether to participate in Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities has been postponed for two weeks [4] - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, holds 947.37 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [4] - According to CME's FedWatch, there is a 91.7% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in July, with an 8.3% chance of a 25 basis point cut. In September, the probability of maintaining rates is 36.1%, with cumulative cuts of 25 basis points at 58.9% and 50 basis points at 5.0% [4] Technical Analysis - Gold prices showed a downward trend, with a significant drop to a low of $3,347 during the trading day. The market is currently experiencing a bearish sentiment, with short-term resistance levels identified [7] - The trading strategy suggests a cautious approach, maintaining a bearish outlook for short-term trading [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes. Most metals are expected to show different trends of price fluctuations in the short term, including high - level oscillations, weakening trends, etc. [1][3][4] - The investment value and risks of different non - ferrous metals vary, and investors need to pay attention to inventory changes, cost factors, and policy impacts. [1][3][14] 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Price**: Yesterday, LME copper closed down 0.32% to $9,619/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 78,280 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain high - level oscillations in the short term, with the SHFE copper main contract running in the range of 77,600 - 78,800 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of $9,500 - 9,700/ton. [1] - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 4,025 to 103,325 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 4.5 tons, remaining at a low level. [1] - **Market Situation**: Overseas geopolitical situations are volatile, and copper follows risk preferences. The tight supply of copper concentrates strengthens, and low inventory strongly supports copper prices, but weakening demand restricts the upside. [1] Aluminum - **Price**: Yesterday, LME aluminum closed down 0.82% to $2,525/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20,540 yuan/ton. It is expected to oscillate and consolidate in the short term, with the domestic main contract running in the range of 20,300 - 20,700 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2,480 - 2,550/ton. [3] - **Inventory**: SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions increased by 17,000 to 646,000 lots, and warehouse receipts decreased by 0.3 to 54,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 0.9 tons to 449,000 tons, and LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 to 345,000 tons. [3] - **Market Situation**: Overseas geopolitical situations are volatile, and rising oil prices push up overseas aluminum costs, but demand concerns suppress sentiment. Low domestic inventory and possible easing of US steel - aluminum tariffs support price increases, but weakening downstream demand restricts the upside. [3] Lead - **Price**: On Thursday, the SHFE lead index closed up 0.70% to 16,932 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a weakening trend. [4] - **Inventory**: SHFE lead futures inventory was 43,800 tons, and domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 51,200 tons. [4] - **Market Situation**: Downstream battery enterprises have weak consumption, and the operating rate of primary lead smelting reaches a historical high, while the inventory of recycled lead products remains high, with weak downside support. [4] Zinc - **Price**: On Thursday, the SHFE zinc index closed down 0.74% to 21,691 yuan/ton. There is a large downward risk in the future. [6] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 8,600 tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 79,600 tons. [6] - **Market Situation**: Zinc ore is in surplus, zinc smelter profits increase, and terminal consumption is weak. Although domestic social inventory has decreased, overall visible inventory is stable, and there is a large downward risk. [6] Tin - **Price**: On June 19, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 263,300 yuan/ton, down 0.65%. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and LME tin price in the range of $31,000 - 33,000/ton. [7][8] - **Inventory**: SHFE futures registered warehouse receipts increased by 39 to 6,613 tons, and LME inventory increased by 25 to 2,200 tons. [7] - **Market Situation**: The resumption of production in Myanmar is slow, and short - term supply of tin ore is tight. Upstream enterprises are reluctant to sell, but downstream acceptance of high - price raw materials is limited, and the industrial chain is in a stalemate. [7][8] Nickel - **Price**: On Thursday, nickel prices oscillated. It is expected that the SHFE nickel main contract will run in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel 3M in the range of $14,500 - 16,500/ton. [9] - **Market Situation**: The shortage of nickel ore has marginally eased, and the price of nickel iron is dragged down by weak stainless - steel demand. The production of MHP in Indonesia has recovered, and the prices of intermediate products and nickel sulfate are expected to decline. The supply - demand surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, and inventory is difficult to maintain, which may lead to a decline in nickel prices. [9] Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 59,961 yuan, down 0.24%. The LC2509 contract closed at 60,060 yuan, up 0.30%. It is expected to oscillate weakly at the bottom in the short term, with the GZEE lithium carbonate 2509 contract running in the range of 59,300 - 60,700 yuan/ton. [11] - **Inventory**: This week, domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 1.8% to 18,462 tons, and inventory increased by 1,352 to 134,901 tons. [11] - **Market Situation**: The fundamentals of lithium carbonate have not improved substantially, supply is resilient, and inventory is under pressure. [11] Alumina - **Price**: On June 19, 2025, the alumina index closed down 0.65% to 2,892 yuan/ton. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the second half of the year, with the domestic main contract AO2509 running in the range of 2,750 - 3,100 yuan/ton. [13][14] - **Inventory**: On Thursday, futures warehouse receipts were 49,200 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous day. [14] - **Market Situation**: There are continuous disturbances in the ore end, but the over - capacity pattern of alumina is difficult to change. The price is expected to be anchored by cost, and the focus of ore prices may rise this year. [14] Stainless Steel - **Price**: On Thursday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,575 yuan/ton, up 0.40%. [16] - **Inventory**: Futures inventory was 114,869 tons, a decrease of 2,110 tons from the previous day. Social inventory increased to 1,157,400 tons, up 1.04%. [16] - **Market Situation**: High inventory of Qing Shan resources suppresses steel prices, downstream users are waiting and watching, and actual transactions are light. The industry is under cost pressure, and the future market depends on whether downstream demand can drive inventory digestion. [16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the ongoing volatility in the gold market, with a significant focus on the current bearish trend led by short sellers, despite some fluctuations in price [3][5] - The average daily volatility of gold has decreased to between $30 and $60, compared to previous periods where it was often over $80 or even $100 [3] - The current gold price behavior resembles the pattern observed in 2011 before a significant drop in 2013, indicating a prolonged period of market fluctuations [5] Group 2 - The analysis suggests that geopolitical tensions, such as the conflict in the Middle East, are being used as excuses for short sellers to drive prices down rather than as a catalyst for a safe-haven rally [5] - Specific price levels for gold are highlighted, with resistance noted at $3372-75 and potential support at $3345-50, indicating a cautious trading strategy [5] - Silver is also experiencing upward pressure, with resistance at $37.3 and potential short positions suggested if prices exceed this level [5] Group 3 - The Shanghai gold and silver markets are following the international gold trend, with recommendations for short positions above certain price levels [7] - The crude oil market is experiencing significant volatility due to geopolitical factors, with recent price movements comparable to the past two months [7] - The U.S. dollar index shows signs of stabilization, with a potential rebound target set at the 102 level, contingent on market movements [12]

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market saw more gains than losses on June 19, with red dates and SC crude oil contracts rising over 4% [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1403.97 points, up 9.01 points or 0.65% from the previous trading day [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 1946.50 points, up 12.50 points or 0.65% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2 - Optimistic sentiment drove red date futures to rise significantly by 4.87%, attributed to favorable weather conditions in the Xinjiang production area and reduced risk control parameters by the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange [2] - Red date futures saw a net increase of 24,000 contracts and a net inflow of over 260 million yuan, indicating strong market activity [2] - Analysts caution that high inventory levels and slow destocking may pose risks to the current bullish sentiment in red dates [2] Group 3 - Ethylene glycol continued its upward trend, rising over 2% on June 19, marking five consecutive days of gains, supported by strong fundamentals and reduced port inventory [3] - As of June 19, ethylene glycol port inventory in the East China main port decreased by 0.56 million tons to 537,000 tons, remaining at a low level since 2022 [3] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is expected to lead to a decline in ethylene glycol imports, further strengthening the bullish market atmosphere [3] Group 4 - The main contract for the European shipping index fell over 4% due to weak demand expectations despite ongoing price increases by shipping companies [4] - The easing of the China-U.S. trade situation has reduced pressure on shipping routes, but long-term price stability remains uncertain [4] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is expected to impact shipping rates and market volatility in the near term [4] Group 5 - Precious metals faced downward pressure, with silver futures dropping over 2% and gold futures also declining, influenced by the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals [5] - Despite the declines, market sentiment remains bullish due to ongoing geopolitical risks and central bank purchases supporting gold prices [5] - The production of polysilicon continues to face challenges, with the main contract hitting a new low, reflecting cautious procurement attitudes among manufacturers [5]

2、证监会：从 2025 年 10 月 9 日起允许合格境外投资者参与场内 ETF 期权交易，交易目的限于套期保 值。 3、乘联分会：6 月 1-15 日全国乘用车新能源市场零售 40.2 万辆，同比增长 38%。 资金面：融资额+52.70 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率-0.30bp 至 1.366%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率-0.48bp 至 2.8887%，十年期国债利率+0.40bp 至 1.6383%，信用利差-0.88bp 至 125bp；美国 10 年期利率+7bp 至 4.39%，中美利差+7.40bp 至-275.17bp。 文字早评 2025/06/19 星期四 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指+0.04%，创指+0.23%，科创 50+0.53%，北证 50-0.65%，上证 50-0.15%，沪深 300+0.12%， 中证 500-0.09%，中证 1000-0.10%，中证 2000-0.28%，万得微盘-0.62%。两市合计成交 11911 亿，较上 一日-161 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、证监会：重启未盈利企业适用科创板第五套上市标准；对第五套标准上市企业 ...

Group 1 - The defense and military industry is transitioning from an emotion-driven military trade logic to a fundamental realization due to frequent geopolitical events [1] - Since 2025, the India-Pakistan conflict has prompted a reassessment of military trade logic, with military trade expected to break through domestic military product pricing bottlenecks, leading to higher profit margins [1] - Domestic demand is entering a new prosperity cycle, with a confirmed turning point in aviation equipment orders, as contracts for main aviation manufacturers increased by 22% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2025 [1] Group 2 - The missile volume increase is significantly improving component orders, and military electronics orders are expected to remain high throughout the year [1] - The inventory reduction and price adjustments in the aviation engine sector are nearing completion, with new models entering batch production, which will drive the volume of supporting aviation engines [1] - The weaponry and equipment sector, particularly long-range fire and unmanned ground equipment, is benefiting from the recovery of domestic demand and high military trade prosperity, with core companies expected to provide high growth guidance for 2025 [1] Group 3 - The commercial aerospace sector is entering a critical phase of large-scale deployment, with an estimated 2,100 satellites expected to be launched in China by 2025, and breakthroughs in reusable rocket technology are imminent [1] - Overall, the dual drivers of military trade and domestic demand are expected to continuously enhance industry valuations [1] - The military ETF (code: 512660) tracks the CSI Military Industry Index (code: 399967), which reflects the overall performance of military-themed stocks selected from the A-share market [1]