Core Viewpoint - ANZ Bank has raised its year-end spot gold target to $3,800 per ounce, anticipating a peak near $4,000 by June next year, driven by a weaker dollar and central bank gold purchases [1] Group 1: Gold Market Outlook - Spot gold reached a historical high of $3,674 this week, with a year-to-date increase of 38% [1] - Factors such as loose monetary policy and geopolitical tensions are expected to enhance the attractiveness of gold investments [1] - ANZ forecasts central bank gold purchases to remain between 900 to 950 tons in 2025, with an expected 485 to 500 tons in the second half of the year [1] Group 2: Central Bank Activity - Several central banks have signaled intentions to purchase gold, with the Czech central bank's gold reserves reaching a record high [1] - China's gold reserves have been increasing for ten consecutive months as of the end of August [1] Group 3: ETF Investments - ANZ predicts that the gold holdings in major markets will increase, with an additional 200 tons of ETF investments expected in the remainder of 2025 [1] Group 4: Silver Market Outlook - ANZ has also raised its year-end silver target to $44.7 per ounce, with spot silver reaching a 14-year high on Monday [1] Group 5: Monetary Policy Implications - Labor market risks may lead the Federal Reserve to maintain loose monetary policies until March 2026, further enhancing gold's appeal [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights the recent performance of the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Index reaching approximately 26,200 points, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 30.6% [11][12]. - The report discusses the impact of various economic factors, including the People's Bank of China's recent adjustments to interest rates and the ongoing tensions in US-China trade relations, which are expected to influence market conditions in the short to medium term [11][12]. - The report provides a detailed analysis of the performance of individual stocks within the Hang Seng Index, identifying the best and worst performers, with Lenovo Group (0992) showing a daily increase of 4.6% and a year-to-date increase of 15.6% [4]. Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index recorded a trading volume of HKD 2,882.1 billion, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12.0 and a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.22 [5]. - The H-share Index had a trading volume of HKD 1,191.4 billion, with a PE ratio of 10.7 and a PB ratio of 1.10 [5]. - The technology index reported a trading volume of HKD 962.2 billion, with a PE ratio of 22.7 and a PB ratio of 3.33 [5]. Company Performance - Galaxy Entertainment (0027.HK) reported a 8.3% year-on-year increase in operating revenue to HKD 23.25 billion, with adjusted EBITDA rising 14.2% to HKD 6.87 billion [26]. - The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.70 per share, reflecting a strong overall performance [26]. - The gaming operations revenue increased by 10.7% to HKD 18.58 billion, while hotel and shopping center revenues grew by 2.5% to HKD 3.17 billion [26]. New Stock Dynamics - The report outlines upcoming IPOs, including Hesai Technology (2525) with a listing price of HKD 228.00 and a maximum fundraising amount of approximately HKD 3.876 billion [31]. - Health 160 (2656) is set to list with a price range of HKD 11.89 to 14.86, aiming to raise up to HKD 500 million [31]. - The report notes that the market sentiment for these new listings is expected to be moderate [32][33].

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs predicts the world is entering a "Commodity Control Cycle" due to stagnation in globalization and inward-looking policies by nations [1][7] - The traditional stock-bond portfolio is deemed vulnerable in the face of two types of stagflation risks: erosion of institutional credibility and supply shocks [2][6] Commodity Control Cycle - The cycle consists of four phases: insulation, expansion, concentration, and leverage [3][4] - **Insulation**: Governments implement tariffs, subsidies, and strategic reserves to protect domestic supply chains [3] - **Expansion**: Once domestic supply is secured, surplus production is used for exports, with OPEC+ and U.S. LNG exports gaining market share [3] - **Concentration**: High-cost producers exit the market, leading to supply concentration among a few dominant players [3] - **Leverage**: Dominant producers can use export restrictions as geopolitical and economic leverage, increasing market disruption risks [3][5] Geopolitical Risks - The concentration of commodity supply heightens geopolitical risks, as seen in historical cases like the 1973 oil embargo and Russia's gas supply cuts to Europe [5] - Key maritime chokepoints exacerbate supply chain vulnerabilities, with diminishing naval protection increasing geopolitical risks for commodity flows [5] Strategic Value of Commodities - The report emphasizes the strategic value of commodities in investment portfolios, particularly in a fragmented and supply-chain-weakening world [6][7] - Not all commodities provide the same hedging effectiveness, which depends on their weight in the inflation basket and the likelihood of supply disruptions [6][9] Conclusion - As the world transitions into a "Commodity Control Cycle," incorporating a diverse range of commodities into investment portfolios is a strategic decision to mitigate future inflation and geopolitical risks [7]

Core Viewpoint - Dongying Travel (06882) has issued a profit warning, expecting a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, attributed to various factors including geopolitical tensions and rumors affecting tourism demand in Japan [1] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 6 million HKD for the six months ending June 30, 2025, representing a decrease of about 82% compared to the net profit of approximately 34 million HKD for the same period in 2024 [1] Market Conditions - The global economy is facing numerous challenges due to escalating geopolitical tensions and international trade disputes, which have led to increased uncertainty and significant disruptions in global trade and investment [1] - The evolving tariff situation has further exacerbated these uncertainties, impacting the overall market environment [1] Impact of Rumors - A rumor regarding a large-scale earthquake in Japan, originating from a Japanese manga published 30 years ago, has circulated widely on social media, leading to a sharp decline in tourism demand for Japan, despite its popularity among residents of Hong Kong [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, 東瀛游 (6882.HK), anticipates a significant decline in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of the year, projecting approximately HKD 6 million, a year-on-year decrease of about 82% [1] Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, the company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 34.12 million, translating to earnings per share of 6.79 cents [1] - The substantial drop in expected profits is attributed to various factors, including geopolitical tensions and escalating international trade disputes impacting the global economy [1] Market Conditions - The evolving tariff situation has increased uncertainty, severely disrupting global trade and investment [1] - Rumors of a major earthquake in Japan in July led to a sharp decline in tourism demand, significantly affecting the company's revenue and gross profit from tourism-related businesses [1] Business Segments - Despite the challenges in tourism, the company's hotel business performed satisfactorily, although overall net profit for the first half of the year still saw a significant reduction [1] - The company reassured that the rumored earthquake on July 5 did not occur and was confirmed to be unfounded [1] Future Outlook - The company expects a gradual recovery in the number of tourists traveling from Hong Kong to Japan in the coming months [1] - There is optimism regarding the improvement of tourism-related business in the second half of the year, alongside continued strong performance in the hotel segment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, 東瀛游 (06882.HK), expects a significant decline in net profit attributable to shareholders for the six months ending June 30, 2025, projecting approximately HKD 6 million, a decrease of about 82% compared to HKD 34 million in the same period of 2024 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The projected net profit for the first half of 2025 is approximately HKD 6 million, a substantial drop from HKD 34 million in the first half of 2024, indicating a decrease of around 82% [1] - The decline in profit is attributed to various factors, including geopolitical tensions and escalating international trade disputes affecting the global economy [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The evolving tariff situation has increased uncertainty, severely disrupting global trade and investment [1] - Rumors of a large-scale earthquake in Japan, which circulated widely on social media, have led to a sharp decline in tourism demand for Japan, despite its popularity among Hong Kong residents [1] Group 3: Business Impact - The company's focus on providing Japan-centered tourism products and services has resulted in a significant reduction in revenue and gross profit from tourism-related operations for the first half of 2025 [1] - Although the hotel business performed satisfactorily, the overall net profit for the first half of 2025 still experienced a substantial decrease [1]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump has set a 10-day deadline for Russia to make progress towards a peace agreement with Ukraine, threatening new sanctions if no progress is made [1][3] Oil Market Impact - Following Trump's announcement, light crude oil futures rose by $2.50 to $69.21 per barrel, a 3.75% increase, while Brent crude increased by $2.47 to $72.51 per barrel, a 3.53% rise [1] - Oil prices had already been on the rise due to signs of tightening inventories and strong demand during the summer season [6] - The geopolitical tensions and potential new sanctions could tighten Russia's oil supply to global markets, impacting prices further [3][4] Trade Agreements and Market Sentiment - Optimism in the market is supported by potential trade agreements between the U.S. and major partners like Mexico, Canada, and China, which could positively affect demand [4] - The U.S.-EU trade agreement has alleviated fears of a trade war, contributing to a more favorable market outlook [6] Secondary Sanctions and Global Buyers - The proposed "secondary tariffs" on countries purchasing Russian oil could significantly impact major buyers like China and India [7] - The U.S. has warned China about potential tariffs if it continues to buy Russian oil, while India has indicated compliance with secondary sanctions [7] - The risk of Russia retaliating by cutting off oil pipelines could further pressure oil prices [7]

Group 1 - International oil prices experienced a significant increase due to heightened pressure from the U.S. on Russia, with light crude oil futures rising by $2.50 to $69.21 per barrel, a 3.75% increase, and Brent crude oil futures up by $2.47 to $72.51 per barrel, a 3.53% increase [1] - U.S. President Trump announced that if Russia does not make progress in ending the conflict with Ukraine, new tariffs and sanctions will be imposed starting 10 days from July 29 [1] - The geopolitical tensions surrounding U.S.-Russia relations are causing fluctuations in oil futures, with analysts surprised by the newly established deadline for Russia [2] Group 2 - If the Trump administration reaches trade agreements with major partners like Mexico, Canada, and China by August 1, it could positively impact oil demand, while new sanctions on Russia may lead to reduced market supply [2] - The tightening of Russian oil and refined product supply could occur if the U.S. implements the new sanctions as planned [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the commodities in the report are rated as "Volatile" [1][2][3][4] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil prices moved up due to geopolitical tensions, but the rebound is limited without substantial supply disruptions [1] - Fuel oil market structure slightly recovered, with expected increased arrivals from Europe in July [2] - Asphalt market is supported by low supply and inventory, and short - term long positions can be considered after oil price stabilizes [2] - Polyester prices are expected to return to the previous oscillation range due to cost support and low inventory [3] - Rubber prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term due to macro events and supply factors [3] - Methanol is expected to enter an oscillation phase after valuation repair [4] - Polyolefins will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and demand, with limited downside space if the cost does not drop significantly [4] - PVC supply remains high, demand is gradually picking up, and the inventory is slowly decreasing [4] 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, WTI 9 - month contract rose $1.55 to $66.71 per barrel, Brent 9 - month contract rose $1.60 to $70.04 per barrel, and SC2509 rose 10.4 yuan to 515.9 yuan per barrel. Geopolitical tensions caused by Trump's actions on the Russia - Ukraine issue led to a rise in oil prices, but the rebound is limited without actual supply impact [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, FU2509 fell 0.9% to 2869 yuan/ton, and LU2510 fell 1.03% to 3545 yuan/ton. The market structure slightly recovered, with expected increased arrivals from Europe in July [2] - **Asphalt**: On Monday, BU2509 fell 1.05% to 3569 yuan/ton. Entering August, supply may increase slightly, but demand is affected by rainfall. The market is supported by low supply and inventory [2] - **Polyester**: TA509 fell 2.51% to 4812 yuan/ton, EG2509 fell 2.4% to 4436 yuan/ton. The "anti - involution" market subsided, but cost support and low inventory are expected to keep prices oscillating [3] - **Rubber**: On Monday, RU2509 fell 520 yuan/ton to 15065 yuan/ton, NR fell 510 yuan/ton to 12810 yuan/ton. The "anti - involution" market subsided, and short - term macro events will cause price fluctuations [3] - **Methanol**: Comprehensive factors such as increased Iranian device load and arrivals, stable downstream profits and inventory increase lead to weak fundamentals, and it is expected to oscillate after valuation repair [4] - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and demand, and the downside space is limited if the cost does not drop significantly [4] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: Supply remains high, demand is gradually picking up, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. The basis and monthly spread are widening [4] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on July 29, 2025, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and the change and historical quantile of basis rate [6] 3.3 Market News - Trump advanced the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire deadline, causing concerns about potential supply disruptions in the crude oil market [9] - The EU imposed a new round of sanctions on Russia, and traders are preparing for a tighter European diesel market and possible redirection of Russian oil exports [9] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report shows the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, etc. [11][13][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [29][31][35] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report shows the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [45][47][50] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spread**: The report shows the spread charts of inter - variety contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [62][64][68] - **4.5 Production Profit**: The report shows the production profit charts of various energy - chemical products, including ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [71][73][74] 3.5 Research Team Members Introduction - The research team includes members such as Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, each with rich experience and professional titles in relevant fields [76][77][78]

Group 1 - Recent gold price correction is seen as a potential opportunity rather than a warning for investors, especially with the upcoming U.S. July non-farm payroll report [1][4] - The correction is a healthy market adjustment, with gold prices stabilizing above key support levels, potentially building momentum for further increases [3] - The market is currently focused on the non-farm payroll report, which is expected to be a key driver for gold and the broader financial market this week [4] Group 2 - Key data points to watch include the number of new non-farm jobs, unemployment rate, and average hourly wage growth, which are critical indicators of the U.S. labor market and inflation expectations [5][6] - If the non-farm data is weaker than expected, it could benefit gold by reinforcing expectations for earlier or faster interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, thereby lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold [7] - Conversely, stronger-than-expected data could be bearish for gold, as it may weaken rate cut expectations and increase the attractiveness of the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [7] Group 3 - Suggested strategies for trading during the non-farm week include maintaining light positions before the data release, focusing on key support and resistance levels, and being cautious about heavy bets [8] - During the data release, aggressive traders may capitalize on immediate volatility, while more conservative traders are advised to wait for the market to stabilize before entering positions [10] - Post-release, the trend should be confirmed before taking further positions, with a focus on whether gold breaks through significant resistance or support levels [11]