Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. Group 2: Report's Core View - For Shanghai Nickel (SHFE Nickel 2512), it is expected to fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average, with some support from the cost line below. The overall situation is affected by macro - factors, with a long - term surplus pattern. The short - term situation is affected by factors such as nickel ore price, nickel iron price, and inventory [2]. - For Stainless Steel (Stainless Steel 2512), it is expected to operate with wide fluctuations around the 20 - day moving average. The spot price has declined, and the cost line has loosened downward [4]. Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs 1. Price Information - **Nickel Price**: On October 31, the Shanghai Nickel main contract closed at 120,590 yuan, down 390 yuan from the previous day; LME Nickel was at 15,250 yuan, unchanged. The spot prices of various nickel types all decreased slightly. For example, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,950 yuan, down 250 yuan [11]. - **Stainless Steel Price**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,655 yuan on October 31, down 70 yuan from the previous day. The spot prices of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in different regions also decreased [11]. 2. Inventory Information - **Nickel Inventory**: As of October 31, LME nickel inventory was 252,102 tons, an increase of 462 tons; SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 31,388 tons, a decrease of 144 tons. The total inventory increased by 318 tons [14]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: On October 31, the inventory in Wuxi was 598,700 tons, in Foshan was 306,100 tons, and the national inventory was 1,031,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,700 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 651,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,600 tons. The stainless steel futures warehouse receipts were 73,657 tons, a decrease of 120 tons [19][20]. 3. Cost Information - **Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Price**: The prices of red - soil nickel ore CIF with different grades remained unchanged on October 31 compared to the previous day. The price of high - nickel ferronickel decreased slightly, and the price of low - nickel ferronickel remained unchanged. The sea freight also remained stable [23]. - **Stainless Steel Production Cost**: The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12,852 yuan, the scrap steel production cost was 13,012 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost was 16,669 yuan [25]. - **Nickel Import Cost**: The calculated import price was 122,291 yuan/ton [28]. 4. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: The price of nickel ore is firm, which provides some support to the cost line [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there is no new growth point in demand, and the long - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. Both domestic and overseas inventories are accumulating [6].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Fuel Oil Morning Report [3] - Report Date: November 3, 2025 [3] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] Group 2: Market Data - Rotterdam | Product | Change from 2025/10/27 to 2025/10/31 | | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 1.02 [4] | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | -1.59 [4] | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | 0.23 [4] | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | -3.51 [4] | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | 1.92 [4] | | LGO - Brent M1 | -0.54 [4] | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | -2.61 [4] | Group 3: Market Data - Singapore | Product | Change from 2025/10/27 to 2025/10/31 | | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 2.18 [4] | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 3.37 [4] | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 5.55 [4] | | Singapore GO M1 | 1.45 [4] | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -0.05 [4] | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -5.18 [4] | Group 4: Market Data - Singapore Fuel Oil Spot | Product | Change from 2025/10/27 to 2025/10/30 | | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | -14.46 [5] | | FOB VLSFO | -3.42 [5] | | 380 Basis | -1.05 [5] | | High - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 1 [5] | | Low - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 6.7 [5] | Group 5: Market Data - Domestic FU | Product | Change from 2025/10/27 to 2025/10/31 | | --- | --- | | FU 01 | -6 [5] | | FU 05 | -1 [5] | | FU 09 | -4 [5] | | FU 01 - 05 | -5 [5] | | FU 05 - 09 | 3 [5] | | FU 09 - 01 | 2 [5] | Group 6: Market Data - Domestic LU | Product | Change from 2025/10/27 to 2025/10/31 | | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 13 [6] | | LU 05 | 16 [6] | | LU 09 | 15 [6] | | LU 01 - 05 | -3 [6] | | LU 05 - 09 | 1 [6] | | LU 09 - 01 | 2 [6] | Group 7: Core Views - This week, the 380 fuel oil crack spread oscillated, the monthly spread weakened month - on - month, the basis oscillated and weakened, the European HSFO crack spread strengthened, and the EW spread weakened significantly. The 0.5 low - sulfur crack spread in Singapore oscillated at a low level, and the monthly spread and basis oscillated at a low level [6]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual fuel oil inventory increased, floating storage increased, ARA's residual fuel oil inventory decreased, floating storage increased, and EIA's residual fuel oil inventory decreased slightly [6][10]. - In terms of shipments, Russia's residual fuel oil shipments rebounded this week but were still low year - on - year. Russia's overall residual fuel oil shipments in October decreased month - on - month. Saudi Arabia's residual fuel oil shipments oscillated at a high level, the UAE's shipments decreased month - on - month. Singapore's arrivals were neutral this week, and domestic residual fuel oil arrivals increased month - on - month [10]. - This week, the domestic - foreign spreads of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rebounded significantly. The external low - sulfur market remained weak, the Singapore high - sulfur market had a poor basis, but the EW spread and raw material premiums supported the 380 crack spread, showing a short - term oscillating pattern [10].

Report Title - "Pigs: Contradictions Accumulating, Potential Further Decline in the Central Price during the Distant Off - season" [1] Report Date - November 2, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The central price of live pig spot and futures may further decline. For the spot market, the supply pressure is large and the demand is expected to weaken, leading to a lower price center. For the futures market, due to factors such as inventory pressure and supply increase, the price centers of relevant contracts are also expected to decline [3][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review (October 27 - November 2) 3.1.1 Spot Market - Pig prices fluctuated strongly. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 19.95 yuan/kg (last week: 19.4 yuan/kg), the price of live pigs in Henan was 12.53 yuan/kg (last week: 11.98 yuan/kg), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1,546 yuan/head (unchanged from last week). The supply side saw enterprises slightly reduce volume at the end of the month, while the willingness of individual farmers to sell increased. The demand side was weakened as rising prices suppressed demand and the willingness to store in cold storage decreased. The average slaughter weight nationwide this week was 124.51KG (last week: 124.75KG), a 0.19% decrease [2] 3.1.2 Futures Market - Pig futures prices showed weak performance. The highest price of the LH2601 contract this week was 12,445 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,810 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,815 yuan/ton (last week: 12,170 yuan/ton). The basis of the LH2601 contract was 715 yuan/ton (last week: - 195 yuan/ton) [2] 3.2 Next Week's Market Outlook (November 3 - November 9) 3.2.1 Spot Market - Live pig spot prices are expected to run weakly. Low prices in October stimulated demand and cold storage, and the widening price difference between fat and standard pigs drove the enthusiasm for secondary fattening. However, there was a negative feedback at the terminal, limiting further price increases. From the supply perspective, the market supply is in a continuous increasing stage, and the supply pressure is large. From the demand perspective, although low prices in October stimulated demand, the demand is expected to weaken in November. Overall, the price center will further decline [3] 3.2.2 Futures Market - The price of the LH2601 contract closed at 11,810 yuan/ton on October 31. The large - scale entry of secondary fattening in October led to a negative feedback at the terminal, a decrease in slaughter volume, and a weakening of spot prices. There is a large pressure to reduce weight in the fourth quarter, and it is difficult to fully digest inventory pressure before the Spring Festival. The supply pressure is expected to be realized in the March and May contracts. It is expected that the price center will further decline, with a short - term support level of 11,000 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 12,300 yuan/ton for the LH2601 contract [4] 3.3 Other Data - This week's basis was 715 yuan/ton, and the LH2601 - LH2603 monthly spread was 440 yuan/ton [8] - This week's average weight was 124.51KG (last week: 124.75KG). In August, pork production was 5.309 million tons, a 5.9% month - on - month increase; in September, pork imports were 80,600 tons, a 2.02% month - on - month decrease [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to oscillate. The supply side shows a slight change in production, with the开工 rate increasing slightly but still at a relatively low level in recent years. The demand side is affected by factors such as funds and weather, and the inventory is at a low level in the same period in recent years. The crude oil price is oscillating, and it is recommended to cautiously observe the asphalt futures price [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply: This week, the asphalt开工 rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 31.5% week - on - week, 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In November, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 0.454 million tons (16.9%) month - on - month and a decrease of 0.274 million tons (11.0%) year - on - year. Some refineries have intermittent production, and the asphalt output will slightly decrease [1]. - Demand: This week, most of the开工 rates of downstream asphalt industries increased. The road asphalt开工 rate increased by 1 percentage point to 33% week - on - week, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, but is restricted by funds and weather. Projects in many northern regions are rushing to work, and the market is actively shipping, while the south is inquiring about low - priced goods [1]. - Inventory: The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline slightly week - on - week and remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [1]. - Price: The market digested the news of Russian oil sanctions. OPEC + eight countries may increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders basically met market expectations, and the relationship between the two countries has not fundamentally changed. The crude oil price is oscillating. Recently, the basis of asphalt in Shandong has dropped significantly from a high level and is currently at a moderately high level [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures contract 2601 fell 0.58% to 3,244 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,225 yuan/ton, and the highest was 3,270 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 3,151 to 199,947 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3,270 yuan/ton, and the basis of asphalt contract 01 fell to 26 yuan/ton, at a moderately high level [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Zhonghai Yingkou resumed asphalt production, and the asphalt开工 rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 31.5% week - on - week, 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [4]. - Demand - related indicators: From January to August, the national highway construction investment decreased by 7.1% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed investment in fixed assets of the road transport industry was - 2.7%, a slight increase from - 3.3% from January to August. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed investment in fixed assets of infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 1.1%, a further decline from 2.0% from January to August [4]. - Social financing: From January to September 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decline from January to August. In September, the new social financing was as high as 3.53 trillion yuan, but it was 233.5 billion yuan less than the same period last year under a high base [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of October 31, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 15.3% compared with the week of October 24 and remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The outcome of the China-US meeting today was below expectations, and the price of US soybeans declined. The profit margin of domestic soybean purchases has improved but remains poor. The domestic futures price is relatively low, and the futures market is expected to rebound in the short term to repair the crushing profit. However, the current abundant supply of near - term soybean meal in the spot market and the expected abundant global soybean supply in the long - term limit the upside potential of the futures market. Attention should be paid to the subsequent policy changes between China and the US and the impact of South American weather on the market [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spread and Price Difference Data - **Spot and Futures Basis**: On October 30th, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang was - 24, down 25; the basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Tianjin was 26, down 25; in Rizhao it was 6, down 25; in Dongguan it was - 44, down 25; in Zhanjiang it was - 4, down 15. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 73, up 13 [6]. - **Price Difference**: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 593, down 3; the price difference between the main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 448, down 16 [7]. - **Spread**: The RM1 - 5 spread was 1500, up 23; the M1 - M5 spread data was presented in the table; the M1 - RM1 spread was 900, and other spread data was also provided [6][7]. 3.2 Supply - related Information - **USDA Forecast**: The estimated ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is 300 million bushels, and the expected yield per acre of 53.5 bushels may be revised downward. Exports depend on China - US policies [7]. - **Brazilian Soybean Sowing**: As of October 25th, the sowing rate of Brazilian soybeans was 34.4%, compared with 21.1% last week, 37.7% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 42.5% [7]. - **Domestic Supply**: In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start destocking, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be abundant. If China cannot purchase US soybeans, the supply of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year needs to be supplemented, and the source of supplementation is uncertain [7][8]. 3.3 Demand - related Information - **Livestock and Poultry Demand**: In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory levels, and the reduction of production capacity is not obvious, which supports current demand. However, the current breeding profit is in deficit, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect long - term supply [8]. - **Soybean Meal Sales**: The downstream transactions of soybean meal are normal, and the pick - up is good [8]. 3.4 Inventory - related Information - **Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory**: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels compared to the same period. The inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal have decreased to a low level [8]. 3.5 Other Information - **Exchange Rate and Profit**: The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium and the import soybean crushing profit data were presented in the report [7]. - **Domestic Oil Mill Data**: The opening rate and soybean crushing volume of domestic major oil mills, as well as the inventory data of domestic major oil mills' soybean meal and soybean, were provided [7].

Report Summary - This is a futures research report by Baocheng Futures, presenting arbitrage data for various commodities on October 31, 2025. The report includes data on power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Not provided in the report. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Power Coal - The report provides the basis and spread data for power coal from October 24 to October 30, 2025. The basis remained at -31.40 yuan/ton during this period, and the spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) were all 0.00 yuan/ton [1][2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: The report shows the basis and price ratio data for fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from October 24 to October 30, 2025. For example, on October 30, the basis for fuel oil was -75.56 yuan/ton, and the price ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1406 [7]. - **Chemical Commodities**: - **Basis**: The basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from October 24 to October 30, 2025 are presented. For instance, on October 30, the basis for rubber was -600 yuan/ton, and for methanol was 4.5 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are provided. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread for rubber was 90 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from October 24 to October 30, 2025 are given. On October 30, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2211 yuan/ton [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from October 24 to October 30, 2025 are shown. On October 30, the basis for rebar was 104.0 yuan/ton, and for iron ore was 4.5 yuan/ton [20]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, 9(10) - 5 month) for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread for rebar was 63 yuan/ton [19]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from October 24 to October 30, 2025 are presented. On October 30, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.88 [19]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: The domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from October 24 to October 30, 2025 are given. On October 30, the basis for copper was -30 yuan/ton, and for aluminum was 15 yuan/ton [29]. - **London Market**: The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit/loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on October 30, 2025 are provided. For example, the LME spread for copper was (21.39) [32]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from October 24 to October 30, 2025 are shown. On October 30, the basis for soybeans No.1 was -123 yuan/ton, and for soybeans No.2 was 338.16 yuan/ton [37]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) for various agricultural products are provided. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread for soybeans No.1 was 41 yuan/ton [37]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads for soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. on October 30, 2025 are presented. The soybeans No.1/corn ratio was 1.94 [37]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from October 24 to October 30, 2025 are given. On October 30, the basis for CSI 300 was 19.91 [49]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, the next month - current month spread for CSI 300 was -40.4 [51].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - For L and PP, the rating is neutral [4]. 2. Core View - The downstream demand for polyolefins is still slowly increasing, and both PE and PP are under pressure. The short - term trends of PE and PP are mainly influenced by the cost side. The supply of both is under pressure, and the demand is slowly recovering. The price of PE is in short - term shock consolidation, and the price of PP continues to be weak [2][3]. 3. Section Summaries Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 6,968 yuan/ton (-41), PP main contract at 6,651 yuan/ton (-34). LL North China spot was 6,950 yuan/ton (-10), LL East China spot 7,060 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot 6,580 yuan/ton (-30). LL North China basis was -18 yuan/ton (+31), LL East China basis 92 yuan/ton (+41), PP East China basis -71 yuan/ton (+4) [2]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率 was 80.9% (-0.6%), PP开工率 was 77.1% (+1.1%) [2]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 343.2 yuan/ton (-39.1), PP oil - based production profit was -346.8 yuan/ton (-39.1), PDH - based PP production profit was 45.6 yuan/ton (-8.9) [2]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit was 69.8 yuan/ton (+86.1), PP import profit was -294.7 yuan/ton (+0.7), PP export profit was -21.7 dollars/ton (-5.1) [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film开工率 was 49.5% (+2.4%), PE downstream packaging film开工率 was 51.3% (-1.3%), PP downstream plastic weaving开工率 was 44.2% (-0.2%), PP downstream BOPP film开工率 was 61.6% (+0.2%) [2]. Market Analysis - **PE**: OPEC+ has a production increase plan, the supply surplus expectation is strengthened, and the demand is expected to remain weak. The cost support of PE is weakened. The supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is still limited. The PE price is in short - term shock consolidation, and the upside space may be limited [3]. - **PP**: The oil - based cost support is weakened, but the supply - demand contradiction still exists. The supply pressure continues, and the demand is slowly recovering. The price of PP continues to be weak [3]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral for L and PP [4]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread [4]. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: None [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are cautiously bullish, and BR is neutral [7] Core Viewpoints - The domestic inventory has further declined since early October due to the temporary slowdown of domestic arrivals and the rebound of downstream tire operating rates, leading to a faster outbound rate than the inbound rate at ports. The demand for domestic snow tires has increased, driving the continuous rebound of downstream tire operating rates. The cost - side support of natural rubber remains strong, but the supply is expected to increase during the peak season. The overall domestic supply and demand may show a pattern of strong growth on both sides. If the arrival volume rebounds, the depletion of domestic social inventory will slow down or even accumulate again. Currently, the valuations of domestic RU and NR are low, and there is a demand for price rebound under a warm macro - environment. It is recommended to pay attention to reverse spread opportunities for the monthly spread. For BR, there are still many devices under maintenance, and the supply - side support is expected to remain. The demand for domestic snow tires has increased, and the supply - demand situation may improve. The surrounding natural rubber prices also provide bottom support for BR prices, but the weak upstream butadiene prices drag down the cost [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,400 yuan/ton, a change of - 225 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,525 yuan/ton, a change of - 195 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,800 yuan/ton, a change of + 5 yuan/ton [1] - **Spot**: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,800 yuan/ton, a change of + 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,930 yuan/ton, a change of - 220 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,870 US dollars/ton, a change of - 20 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,760 US dollars/ton, a change of - 40 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,000 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,700 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [1] Market Information - **Heavy - truck sales**: In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, reaching a new high in the same period in recent years [2] - **Natural rubber imports**: In September 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [2] - **Thai natural rubber exports**: In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, the total export of standard rubber was 1.116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; the export of smoked sheet rubber was 308,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%; the export of latex was 556,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. From January to September, the total export of natural rubber to China was 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, the total export of standard rubber to China was 459,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%; the total export of smoked sheet rubber to China was 99,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 330%; the total export of latex to China was 199,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70% [2] - **Automobile production and sales**: In September 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% respectively. For the first time in the same period in history, automobile production and sales exceeded 3 million vehicles, and the monthly year - on - year growth rate has remained above 10% for five consecutive months [3] - **Rubber tire exports**: In the first three quarters of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 7.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; the export value was 127.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 7.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%; the export value was 122.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. Calculated by the number of pieces, the export volume reached 5.3491 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The export volume of automobile tires in the first three quarters was 6.22 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%; the export value was 105.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [3] - **EU passenger car market**: In September 2025, the EU passenger car market sales increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spread**: On October 30, 2025, the RU basis was - 600 yuan/ton (+ 275), the spread between the RU main contract and the mixed rubber was 470 yuan/ton (- 5), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,136 yuan/ton (- 3,135.67), the NR basis was 727.00 yuan/ton (+ 58.00); the price of whole latex was 14,800 yuan/ton (+ 50), the mixed rubber was 14,930 yuan/ton (- 220), the 3L spot was 15,250 yuan/ton (- 50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,870 US dollars/ton (- 20), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 450 yuan/ton (+ 100); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,730 yuan/ton (- 220) [4] - **Raw Materials**: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 58.99 Thai baht/kg (- 0.83), the price of Thai glue was 56.00 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.50), the price of Thai cup lump was 53.30 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.05), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 2.70 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.45) [5] - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.34% (- 0.53%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.12% (- 0.72%) [6] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 124,020 tons (- 10,980), and the NR futures inventory was 42,640 tons (+ 2,521) [6] Butadiene Rubber - **Spot and Spread**: On October 30, 2025, the BR basis was - 100 yuan/ton (- 5), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 7,900 yuan/ton (+ 0), the quoted price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,000 yuan/ton (+ 0), the quoted price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Transfar was 10,700 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of Shandong private butadiene rubber was 10,400 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the import profit of butadiene rubber from Northeast Asia was - 2,003 yuan/ton (- 49) [6] - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 66.77% (- 4.93%) [6] - **Inventory**: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 3,680 tons (- 840), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 27,200 tons (- 1,450) [6] Strategy - For RU and NR, be cautiously bullish. Pay attention to the reverse spread opportunities for the monthly spread. For BR, maintain a neutral stance [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends across different commodity sectors, with factors such as geopolitical events, supply - demand dynamics, and policy changes influencing prices. For example, the Fed's interest rate decisions, Sino - US trade negotiations, and seasonal production patterns all play significant roles [3][4]. - Different commodities have distinct investment outlooks. Some are expected to be bullish in the short - term or long - term, while others are likely to be bearish or range - bound. For instance, gold may have short - term volatility but is supported by the de - dollarization logic, while some energy and chemical products may face supply - driven downward pressure in the long run [4][10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Copper**: After a sharp decline in price, it is recommended to buy on dips as the short - term trend is a pull - back after hitting a new high. The Fed's rate cut and Sino - US relations, along with LME's position limits, have affected the market [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to be oscillating strongly. With a warm domestic macro - environment, eased Sino - US trade friction, and overseas power supply issues, it is advisable to buy on dips [3]. - **Alumina**: The price is expected to decline as it returns to the fundamental surplus logic. However, the spot price shows signs of stabilizing. Buying call options on dips is recommended, and attention should be paid to the main position changes [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term price is expected to be strong due to high spot demand. High - frequency monitoring of inventory and warehouse receipt changes is recommended, and chasing long positions should be done with caution [5]. - **Tin**: The price is expected to be oscillating strongly, considering factors such as the Fed's rate cut, Sino - US relations, and LME's position limits [5]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to have significant short - term volatility. Buying on support levels is recommended, and silver long positions should be reduced. The de - dollarization logic remains, but market reactions to the Fed's decisions and Sino - US negotiations are complex [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: Hold long positions, with the RB01 reference range of 3060 - 3130 yuan/ton. The overall supply - demand contradiction is limited, and there is significant structural differentiation [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Hold long positions, with the I01 reference range of 780 - 810 yuan/ton. The supply - demand is marginally neutral - strong, and the inventory build - up may be slower than the historical average [6]. - **Coking Coal**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, with the JM01 reference range of 1270 - 1320 yuan/ton. The futures valuation is high, and there is an expectation of production contraction [7]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans are short - term bullish, focusing on trade negotiations. The domestic market is range - bound, following the cost side. Attention should be paid to tariff policy progress [8]. - **Corn**: The futures price is expected to be oscillating weakly due to factors such as damaged grain quality in North China, new grain listing pressure, and production cost reduction [8]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils are bearish with structural differences. An anti - spread strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to production areas' output and biodiesel policies [8]. - **Cotton**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, with a range - bound strategy between 13400 - 13700 yuan/ton, considering factors such as the strength of the US dollar and Sino - US trade negotiations [8]. - **Eggs**: The futures price is expected to be range - bound as the pressure eases [9]. - **Pigs**: The futures price is expected to be range - bound with improved demand and reduced second - fattening [9]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: In the short - term, it is expected to be weakly oscillating, and in the long - term, as new devices are put into operation, the supply - demand will be more relaxed. Short positions or month - spread anti - spreads can be considered on rallies [10]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand is in a weak balance. Short positions or anti - spreads are recommended [10]. - **PTA**: The medium - term supply - demand pattern is improving. Long positions are recommended, and shorting the processing margin on rallies is advisable [10]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to have a short - term pull - back and a medium - term range - bound trend. Band - trading is recommended [11]. - **Glass**: The supply - demand is in a weak balance. An anti - spread strategy is recommended [11]. - **PP**: In the short - term, it is expected to be weakly oscillating, and in the long - term, the supply - demand will be more relaxed. Short positions or month - spread anti - spreads can be considered on rallies [11]. - **MEG**: In the long - term, there is a large inventory build - up pressure. Shorting on rallies is recommended [11]. - **Crude Oil**: In the short - term, it is expected to be oscillating. A wait - and - see approach is recommended, and attention should be paid to the reduction of Russian oil exports [11]. - **Styrene**: In the short - term, it is expected to be weakly oscillating, and in the long - term, the supply - demand will be more relaxed. Shorting on rallies or month - spread anti - spreads can be considered [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand is balanced, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - For soybeans and soybean meal, the global soybean supply is expected to remain loose. With high domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories, the import of US soybeans may slow down the domestic de - stocking process and reduce the crushing profit margin. It is recommended to sell on rebounds [2][4]. - For palm oil, the high - yield in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market. If the high - yield in Indonesia cannot be sustained, the inventory accumulation situation may reverse; otherwise, it will continue to be weak. It is recommended to view it as oscillating weakly before the export of Malaysian palm oil improves [8]. - For sugar, the tightening of syrup and premix import controls drives the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar prices. However, due to the negative data of sugarcane crushing and sugar production in Brazil and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere, it is advisable to wait for the rebound to weaken and then look for short - selling opportunities [10]. - For cotton, the demand during the peak consumption season is weak this year, and there is an expected bumper harvest in the new year. Although the recent increase in the purchase price of new cotton drives the rebound of Zhengzhou cotton, the upward space of cotton prices is relatively limited in the short term [13]. - For eggs, the spot price still has a rebound expectation but is limited by high supply. The futures market is in a state of bottom - building, and it is recommended to wait and see [17]. - For pigs, in the medium term, pig prices are likely to fall easily due to high supply pressure. In the short term, there may be a rebound, and it is recommended to gradually establish reverse - spread positions and short - sell after reaching the pressure level [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans and Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose as US officials said China would buy tens of millions of tons of soybeans. On Thursday, the domestic soybean meal spot price was stable, with the East China price at 2910 yuan/ton, the transaction volume at 145,000 tons, and the delivery volume at 196,400 tons. The inventory days of domestic feed enterprises increased by 0.03 days to 7.95 days last week. The soybean meal inventory of oil mills increased, and the soybean inventory decreased month - on - month. The total inventory was high and showed a slight de - stocking trend. MYSTEEL estimated that the domestic soybean crushing volume of oil mills this week would be 2.3392 million tons, compared with 2.3674 million tons last week. As of last Thursday, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil's 2025/26 season had reached 36%, and the rainfall in the main planting areas was at a neutral level [2]. - **Strategy**: The import cost of soybeans is mainly oscillating. With high domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories, the crushing profit is under pressure. It is recommended to sell on rebounds [4]. Palm Oil - **Market Information**: ITS and AMSPEC data showed that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 10 increased by 9.86% - 19.37% compared with the same period last month, the export volume from October 1 - 15 increased by 12.3% - 16.2%, the export volume from October 1 - 20 increased by 3.4%, and the export volume from October 1 - 25 decreased by 0.4%. SPPOMA data showed that the palm oil production in Malaysia from October 1 - 15 increased by 6.86% month - on - month, the production from October 1 - 20 increased by 2.71%, and the production from October 1 - 25 increased by 1.63%. The high - yield in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market, and there are rumors that Indonesia may suspend the implementation of B50 in 2026. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [5]. - **Strategy**: The high - yield in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the palm oil market. If the high - yield in Indonesia cannot be sustained, the inventory accumulation situation may reverse; otherwise, it will continue to be weak. It is recommended to view it as oscillating weakly before the export of Malaysian palm oil improves [8]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the price of Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated weakly. The closing price of the January contract was 5472 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton or 0.4% compared with the previous trading day. The spot prices of sugar in Guangxi, Yunnan, and processing plants were stable. The customs has tightened the import control of Thai syrup and premix, with the number of suspended enterprises increasing from 35 to 44, and the scope of suspension expanding [9]. - **Strategy**: The tightening of import controls drives the rebound of sugar prices. However, due to the negative data of sugar production in Brazil and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere, it is advisable to wait for the rebound to weaken and then look for short - selling opportunities [10]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated narrowly. The closing price of the January contract was 13,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton or 0.15% compared with the previous trading day. The spot price of cotton increased slightly, and the basis was 1243 yuan/ton. The China - US economic and trade teams reached some consensus in the negotiations, including the cancellation of the 10% "fentanyl tariff" by the US on Chinese goods [12]. - **Strategy**: The demand during the peak consumption season is weak this year, and there is an expected bumper harvest in the new year. Although the recent increase in the purchase price of new cotton drives the rebound of Zhengzhou cotton, the upward space of cotton prices is relatively limited in the short term [13]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg prices were mostly stable, with a few areas having narrow adjustments. The average price in the main production areas remained at 2.88 yuan/jin. The supply was relatively stable, and the market sales were average. It is expected that the national egg prices will mostly remain stable and a few areas may have narrow adjustments today [15][16]. - **Strategy**: The spot price still has a rebound expectation but is limited by high supply. The futures market is in a state of bottom - building, and it is recommended to wait and see [17]. Pigs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, domestic pig prices showed mixed trends with more price - falling areas. As the end of the month approaches, the enthusiasm of farmers for slaughter is not high, but the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing decreases after the price increase. It is expected that pig prices will be stable with a weak trend today [18]. - **Strategy**: In the medium term, pig prices are likely to fall easily due to high supply pressure. In the short term, there may be a rebound. It is recommended to gradually establish reverse - spread positions and short - sell after reaching the pressure level [19].