| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资和咖业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026年2月2日 | 品种 | 最新值 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | 较前一日变化 | | | | | | | | | | | | 4.66 | 92.60% | 77.50% | 上期间处差 | -25.47 | H期现价来 | 7.50 | -11.98 | 94.60% | 90.70% | 期现价差 | | | | | | | IC期现价差 | 90.10% | -8.12 | -7.88 | 71,60% | IM期现价差 | 5.74 | 18.79 | 90.00% | 91,20% | 次月-当月 | -8.40 | 92.6096 | 62.40% | 1.00 | | | 零月-当月 | -10.20 | -7.20 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - In January, the egg market was boosted by the Spring Festival stocking effect, with egg prices rising significantly and a strong divergence between the spot and futures markets. In the short - term, the market was in a state of short - term supply - demand tightness, and the low inventory at each stage supported the spot price. The futures market showed a large discount due to the pessimistic expectation of a sharp decline in post - festival demand. In the medium - term, the supply - demand pattern of the egg market in the second quarter is expected to improve marginally, and egg prices are likely to rise in an oscillating manner. The far - month contracts have the potential for valuation repair [7][8][72] - The recommended operation strategies are to remain on the sidelines for single - sided trading, arbitrage, and options trading [8][73] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Futures Price - In January, the main contract of egg futures switched to JD2603, showing an oscillating trend. The highest price in the month was 3,101 yuan/500 kg, and the lowest was 2,970 yuan/500 kg. As of last Friday, the contract was reported at 3,002 yuan/500 kg, down 1.51% [5][13] 3.1.2 Spot Price - In January, egg prices rose significantly under the boost of the Spring Festival holiday. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.51 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.49 yuan/jin (16.23%); the average price in the main selling areas was 3.52 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.45 yuan/jin (14.66%) [7][18] 3.1.3 Basis - As of January 30, the egg basis was 998 yuan/500 kg, at a recent high. The strong performance of the spot market diverged from the futures market [22] 3.1.4 Chicken Chick Price - Driven by the increase in egg prices, the enthusiasm for replenishment in the breeding sector increased significantly in January. The average price of commercial - generation egg - laying chicken chicks was 2.83 yuan per chick, a month - on - month increase of 3.66% and a year - on - year decrease of 36.12% [7][26] 3.1.5 Old Hen Price - In January, the price of old hens oscillated upward, and the breeding sector was reluctant to sell and hold back inventory. The average price of old hens was 4.41 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.33 yuan/jin (8.09%) [7][31] 3.1.6 Laying Hen Inventory - In January, the inventory of laying hens was about 1.288 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54% and a year - on - year increase of 5.31%. The inventory of laying hens was still at a high level in the past five - year average, and the supply pressure was not significantly alleviated [35] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Side - **Laying Hen Inventory**: The inventory of laying hens in January was about 1.288 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54% and a year - on - year increase of 5.31%. The new production capacity in January corresponded to the chicks replenished in September last year, and the farmers were cautious in replenishing [35] - **Chicken Chick Sales**: In January, the total sales of chicken chicks were 39.18 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.18% [42] - **Old Hen Slaughter**: Affected by the pressure to hold back inventory, the slaughter volume of old hens in January decreased month - on - month. The total slaughter volume of old hens in the sample points was 2.9007 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.33%. The average slaughter age was 487 days, one day earlier than in December [48] - **Old Hen Slaughter by Enterprises**: Driven by the pre - Spring Festival consumption peak, the overall slaughter volume of the industry increased significantly in January. The total slaughter volume of old hens in sample slaughter enterprises was 10.0792 million, a month - on - month increase of 12.54% [52] 3.2.2 Demand Side - **Vehicle Arrivals in Sales Areas**: Affected by Spring Festival stocking, the downstream market stocked up actively. In January, the number of vehicle arrivals in the Beijing market was 360, a decrease of 40 vehicles (10%) compared with December; the number of vehicle arrivals in the Guangdong market was 2,670, an increase of 23 vehicles (0.87%) compared with the previous month [56] - **Egg Sales in Sales Areas**: In January, the total egg sales in the sales areas were 32.19 thousand tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.76 thousand tons (9.38%) and a year - on - year increase of 60.55% [62] 3.2.3 Egg - Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit - In January, the breeding cost of egg - laying hens increased slightly, and the loss margin narrowed significantly. The average breeding cost of egg - laying hens was 133.59 yuan per hen, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 yuan/jin (0.85%), and the breeding profit was - 0.03 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.46 yuan/jin [66] 3.2.4 Inventory Situation - In January, the inventory in the production and circulation links decreased month - on - month. As of January 30, the production - link inventory was 0.58 days, a decrease of 0.44 days compared with December; the circulation - link inventory was 0.79 days, a decrease of 0.58 days compared with December [71] 3.3 Market Outlook and Operation Strategies 3.3.1 Market Outlook - Since January, the concentrated release of Spring Festival stocking demand, combined with the concentrated release of cold - storage eggs in December and the month - on - month decline in egg - laying hen production capacity, has led to a short - term supply - demand tightness in the market, and the inventory pressure at each stage has been alleviated. Near the end of the month, the improvement in breeding profits has led to a slowdown in the culling of old hens, and the terminal stocking is coming to an end. However, the low inventory at each stage still supports the spot egg price. In the medium - term, the supply - demand pattern of the egg market in the second quarter is expected to improve marginally, and egg prices are likely to rise in an oscillating manner [8][72] 3.3.2 Operation Strategies - **Single - sided Trading**: Remain on the sidelines - **Arbitrage**: Remain on the sidelines - **Options Trading**: Remain on the sidelines [8][73]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - This week, the LPG futures market fluctuated and rose following crude oil due to geopolitical and macro - emotional disturbances. The current cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4418 (+46). The 2 - month CP official price met expectations, with propane and butane at 545/540 (+20/+20). The FEI monthly spread fluctuated, while the CP and MB monthly spreads declined. The oil - gas ratio decreased, and the North American natural gas - LPG ratio increased. The internal - external spread weakened significantly. The freight rate increased significantly due to North American cold snaps and the tense Iranian situation. The profit of China's PDH to produce propylene strengthened significantly. Fundamentally, geopolitical risks remain, and the rising external price supports the positive sentiment of domestic LPG futures, but domestic downstream profits are poor and pre - holiday inventory reduction weakens the support for spot prices. The current internal basis is weak, the monthly spread valuation is neutral, and subsequent attention should be paid to warehouse receipts and the external market. The internal - external valuation is moderately high, and the external market may remain tight in the short term, with attention needed on the February cold snap in the US and the Iranian situation [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog LPG Price Data - From January 26 - 30, 2026, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, Shandong alkylation oil, paper import profit, and main basis all had corresponding changes. The daily changes were - 10, 5, 50, 5, - 5, - 1, 70, 50, - 51, and 63 respectively [1] Market Indicators - The 03 basis was 64 (- 32), the 03 - 04 monthly spread was - 294 (- 16), - 203 (- 8). Warehouse receipts were 5867 hands (- 31), with a reduction of 31 from Haiyu Petrochemical. The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 29 (- 11) [1] Profit and Operating Rate - China's PDH profit to produce propylene was - 237 (a month - on - month increase of 200). The PDH operating rate was 60.72% (- 1.53pct) [1] Price Premium and Discount - The East China propane arrival premium was 91 (+6); the AFEI, Middle East, and US propane FOB premiums were 19.25 (- 16.75), - 15 (- 35), 46.89 (- 15.6) respectively [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the glass industry is "short - term shock" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply - demand contradiction in the glass market has not been substantially improved. The short - term price may fluctuate, but there is a possibility of weakening in the later stage. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - In the futures market, the glass main contract opened high and went low, showing a short - term shock signal. The trading volume increased by 361,000 lots and the open interest increased by 43,145 lots compared with the previous day. The closing price was 1056 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton or 1.95% from the previous settlement price [1] - In the spot market, the situation varied by region. North China was stable, East China had average trading, Central China had some price increases in Hubei, and South China's market center shifted down [1] - The basis in North China was - 36 yuan/ton with a spot price of 1020 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 29, the weekly total output of float glass was 1.057 million tons, flat month - on - month and - 3.375% year - on - year. The industry average operating rate was 71.86%, up 0.24% month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate was 75.7%, flat month - on - month. One production line was restarted but had not yet produced glass [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 52.564 million heavy boxes, down 652,000 heavy boxes or 1.22% month - on - month and up 21.24% year - on - year. The inventory days were 22.8 days, 0.3 days less than the previous period [2] - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, domestic float glass exports were 87,000 tons, an increase of 2200 tons or 2.59% from the previous month. The net exports were 72,400 tons, a 4.51% increase month - on - month. The cumulative export volume from January to December was 1.0292 million tons, a 93.63% increase year - on - year [2] - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of natural - gas float glass was - 155.12 yuan/ton, up 3.57 yuan/ton week - on - week. The weekly average profit of coal - gas float glass was - 68.5 yuan/ton, down 3.39 yuan/ton week - on - week. The weekly average profit of petroleum - coke float glass was 1.07 yuan/ton, up 2.85 yuan/ton week - on - week [3] Main Logic Summary - The long - term losses of glass production lines have accelerated the capacity clearance of some enterprises, and there are still plans to cold - repair some production lines before the Spring Festival, so the supply side is expected to shrink further. However, real - estate demand has not improved, and downstream demand is expected to weaken further after February. The short - term price may fluctuate [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the soda ash industry is "volatile" [1] Core Viewpoints - Currently, the soda ash capacity utilization rate remains high, and with the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall output is increasing. Recently, a glass production line has resumed production, leading to a slight recovery in the rigid demand for soda ash. Affected by the overall market today, the price has declined, but there is support from anti - involution and rising energy costs. However, the continuously increasing high inventory pressure will limit the price rebound space. In the short term, the futures price may maintain a volatile trend with a limited range. In February, as downstream enterprises gradually shut down for the holiday, the pre - holiday demand may weaken further, and the price may undergo a weak adjustment [4] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures market**: The main soda ash contract opened and closed lower, showing weakness during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands tightened, indicating a short - term volatile signal. The intraday pressure is near the upper Bollinger Band, and the support is near the middle Bollinger Band. The trading volume increased by 167,000 lots compared to yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 14,274 lots. The intraday high was 1230, the low was 1197, and the closing price was 1204, down 6 yuan/ton or 0.5% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot market**: The spot market remained weakly stable. Enterprise equipment was operating stably, with supply remaining at a high level. Some enterprises had maintenance plans in early February. Downstream procurement sentiment was poor, and they mainly replenished inventory at low prices [1] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 46 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 29, the domestic soda ash production was 783,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,400 tons or 1.47%. Among them, the light soda ash production was 362,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,200 tons; the heavy soda ash production was 421,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,200 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.19%, down 2.23% from last week. The ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 88.99%, a month - on - month increase of 1.30%; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 74.65%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.34%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 16 enterprises with an annual production capacity of over one million tons was 88.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.56% [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,544,200 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons or 0.21% compared to Monday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 828,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,200 tons; the heavy soda ash inventory was 716,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,400 tons. It increased by 23,000 tons or 1.52% compared to last Thursday. The inventory at the same time last year was 1,845,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 300,900 tons or 16.31% [2] - **Demand**: The shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 760,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.94%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 97.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 9.92%. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, and the procurement enthusiasm was poor. They mainly consumed inventory and made low - price rigid - demand purchases [2][3] - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit (per two tons) of the co - production method was - 26.5 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 13.5 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 88.35 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7.95 yuan/ton. During the week, the price of raw material rock salt was stable, and the price of thermal coal fluctuated downward, resulting in a slight decline in costs [3] Main Logic Summary - The soda ash capacity utilization rate remains high, and the overall output is increasing with new capacity. The rigid demand for soda ash has slightly recovered due to the resumption of a glass production line. Affected by the overall market, the price has dropped today, but there is support. The high inventory pressure limits the price rebound. In the short term, the price may fluctuate, and in February, it may weaken as downstream demand declines [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report In the short - term, asphalt is expected to show a relatively strong and volatile trend, and the arbitrage suggestion is mainly reverse arbitrage. The supply of asphalt is at a low level, and there may be a shortage of raw materials in the future. Although the demand is weak, there is some stocking and arbitrage demand. The price in Shandong has a slight increase, and the basis is at a low level. It is expected that domestic refineries will still have available raw material inventories before March, and the asphalt supply will be tight at the end of the month [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply side: This week, the asphalt operating rate dropped 1.3 percentage points to 25.5% week - on - week, 2.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year. In February 2026, the domestic asphalt planned production is 193.6 million tons, a decrease of 3.2% month - on - month and 6.5% year - on - year. The national asphalt shipment volume decreased 5.80% week - on - week to 214,500 tons. Next week, Shandong Shengxing Petrochemical plans to switch to producing residual oil, and the asphalt operation will remain at a low level [1]. - Demand side: The downstream operating rates of asphalt industries mostly declined this week. The road asphalt operation rate remained flat at 14%. The rigid demand in the north has basically stagnated, but there is stocking and arbitrage demand. Southern projects are gradually entering the final stage [1]. - Raw materials: The flow of Venezuelan heavy - crude oil to domestic refineries is severely restricted. Although the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, it is still expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention. The Asian sales price of Venezuelan oil has risen [1]. - Price and basis: The asphalt price in Shandong has a slight increase, and the basis is still at a low level. The mainstream market price in Shandong has risen to 3,260 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 03 contract has risen to - 164 yuan/ton [1][3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2603 contract fell 0.38% to 3,424 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,407 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,554 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 24,185 to 145,873 lots [2]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: The asphalt operating rate dropped 1.3 percentage points to 25.5% week - on - week, 2.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The investment in national highway construction from January to November increased by - 5.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased 0.1 percentage points compared with that from January to October 2025 but is still negative [4]. - Demand side: From January to December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry was - 6.0%, continuing to decline compared with - 4.7% from January to November 2025. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to December 2025 was - 2.2%, continuing to decline compared with - 1.1% from January to November 2025. As of the week of January 30, most downstream operating rates of asphalt industries declined, and the road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 14% [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of January 30, the asphalt refinery inventory rate remained flat at 13.6% compared with the week of January 23, near the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The steel market is in a slow season with limited demand support. Steel prices are expected to move sideways, and hot-rolled coil basis trading and futures-cash arbitrage can be considered. [2] - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to rebound due to improved market sentiment, but the fundamentals remain under pressure in the medium term. [3] - The coking coal and coke market is affected by the off-season and limited upward and downward drivers. After the first round of coke price increase, pay attention to selling opportunities on rallies. [5] - Iron ore prices are supported in the short term by the "restart + restocking" expectation but face long-term pressure from port inventories. [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On January 29, the closing prices of far-month contracts RB2610, HC2610, 12609, J2609, and JM2609 were 3203.00, 3330.00, 779.00, 1791.50, and 1242.50 yuan/ton respectively, with varying increases. [1] - The closing prices of near-month contracts RB2605, HC2605, 12605, J2605, and JM2605 were 3157.00, 3308.00, 798.50, 1723.00, and 1165.00 yuan/ton respectively, also with varying increases. [1] - The cross-month spreads of RB2605 - 2610, HC2605 - 2610, 12605 - 2609, J2605 - 2609, and JM2605 - 2609 were -46.00, -22.00, 19.50, -68.50, and -77.50 yuan/ton respectively. [1] - The spreads/ratios/profits such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, coal - coke ratio, rebar disk profit, and coking disk profit had specific values and changes on January 29. [1] Spot Market - On January 29, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, Guangzhou rebar, Tangshan billet, and the Platts Index were 3280.00, 3190.00, 3410.00, 2950.00, and 104.15 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding changes. [1] - The spot prices of Shanghai hot - rolled coil, Hangzhou hot - rolled coil, Guangzhou hot - rolled coil, billet - product spread, and Rizhao Port PB had specific values and changes on January 29. [1] - The spot prices of Qingdao Port super - special powder, etc. also had corresponding values and changes on January 29. [1] - The basis values of HC, RB, etc. and their changes on January 29 were provided. [1] Steel - The steel market is in a slow season with limited demand support. Steel prices are expected to move sideways. The actual resumption of production by steel mills may be slow. Traders are less willing to do open - position winter storage and are more suitable to participate through basis trading. Hot - rolled coil basis is favorable for futures - cash positions, and hot - rolled coil futures - cash arbitrage can be rolled. [2] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - With the warming of market sentiment, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are oscillating upwards. The demand is weak in the short term, and the supply is high in the medium term. The domestic macro - policy is favorable. In general, the short - term market sentiment dominates, and the prices may be strongly oscillating. [3] Coking Coal and Coke - The first round of coke price increase has finally landed, but the market is not optimistic about the future. The downstream procurement is cautious. The coking coal online auction has many unsuccessful bids. The futures market is affected by the relaxation of the "three red lines" for real - estate enterprises and the stock market rebound. The steel market is in a slow season, and the industry data is weak. The coal mine supply continues to recover, and the downstream has pre - Spring Festival restocking. The short - term first - round price increase and news drive the disk rebound, but pay attention to selling opportunities on rallies. [5] Iron Ore - The steel mill's in - plant inventory is low. The expectation of steel mill restart and pre - Spring Festival restocking supports the iron ore price in the short term. After the restocking expectation is fully digested, the port inventory pressure will be the source of pressure. The short - term pattern is oscillating strongly, but the medium - long - term pressure is obvious. [6]

Group 1: Report Core View - The absolute price of soybean meal is relatively low. Recently, affected by weather speculation in Argentina and logistics congestion in Brazil, the futures market has been strong. However, there is an expectation of rainfall return in the Argentine production area in February, and the total supply of Brazilian soybeans is sufficient. The expected logistics congestion will shift the selling pressure of Brazilian premiums later. There is no condition for a significant unilateral upward trend. Currently, the domestic purchase and shipping profit is at a high level. From the perspective of profit, the valuation of the soybean meal futures is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up unilaterally. The domestic supply and demand is expected to be loose in the first quarter, the spot basis is expected to weaken, and M3 - M5 is biased towards reverse arbitrage [13] Group 2: Data Summary Basis Data - On January 29th, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was 438, in Tianjin was 378 (down 20), in Rizhao was 318 (down 20), in Zhangjiagang was 328 (down 10), in Dongguan was 318 (down 20), in Zhanjiang was 348 (down 20), and in Fangcheng was 338 (down 20). The basis of rapeseed meal in Yue was 147 (down 24). M3 - 5 was 294 (down 4), and RM5 - 9 was - 8 [4] Spread Data - The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 477 (down 8), and the futures spread of the main contract was not clearly stated in the text [5] Inventory Data - The text shows the inventory data of Chinese port soybeans, national major oil mills' soybeans, national major oil mills' soybean meal, and the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal, but specific data on January 29th is not clearly summarized [5][7][8] Other Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 6.9146, and the futures crushing profit was 153 yuan/ton. The text also shows the CNF premium trend chart of soybeans in 2025 and the futures crushing profit chart of imported soybeans in 2025 [5]

1. Report's Core View - The report presents the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, historical quantiles, spot references, and notes of various commodities on January 30, 2026, covering ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, precious metals, agricultural products, energy and chemical products, and financial futures [1]. 2. Summary by Commodity Categories Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF603)**: Spot price is 5678, futures price is 5736, basis is - 58, basis rate is 11.01%, historical quantile is 49.90%, and the spot reference is the converted price of 72 - silicon iron qualified blocks from Inner Mongolia to Tianjin warehouse receipts [1]. - **Silicon Manganese (SM603)**: Spot price is 5940, futures price is 5926, basis is 14, basis rate is 0.24%, historical quantile is 27.50%, and the spot reference is the converted price of 6517 silicon manganese from Inner Mongolia to Hubei warehouse receipts [1]. - **Rebar (RB2605)**: Spot price is 3260, futures price is 3157, basis is 103, basis rate is 3.26%, historical quantile is 48.40%, and the spot reference is HRB400 20mm in Shanghai [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2605)**: Spot price is 3290, futures price is 3308, basis is - 18, basis rate is - 0.54%, historical quantile is 11.40%, and the spot reference is Q235B 4.75mm in Shanghai [1]. - **Iron Ore (I2605)**: Spot price is 844, futures price is 799, basis is 45, basis rate is 5.67%, historical quantile is 35.90%, and the spot reference is the converted price of 62.5% Brazilian blended powder (BRBF) from Vale at Rizhao Port [1]. - **Coke (J2605)**: Spot price is 1713, futures price is 1723, basis is - 10, basis rate is - 0.61%, historical quantile is 58.20%, and the spot reference is the converted price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2605)**: Spot price is 1156, futures price is 1165, basis is - 9, basis rate is - 0.77%, historical quantile is 30.50%, and the spot reference is the converted price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) at Shaheyi [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2603)**: Spot price is 104185, futures price is 109110, basis is - 4925, basis rate is - 4.51%, historical quantile is 0.20%, and the spot reference is the SMM electrolytic copper average price [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2603)**: Spot price is 24860, futures price is 25590, basis is - 730, basis rate is 2.85%, historical quantile is 0.41%, and the spot reference is the SMM A00 aluminum average price [1]. - **Alumina (AO2605)**: Spot price is 2625, futures price is 2816, basis is - 191, basis rate is - 6.77%, historical quantile is 5.94%, and the spot reference is the SMM alumina index average price [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2603)**: Spot price is 25220, futures price is 25950, basis is - 730, basis rate is 2.81%, historical quantile is 0.20%, and the spot reference is the SMM 1 zinc ingot average price [1]. - **Tin (SN2603)**: Spot price is 438600, futures price is 446130, basis is - 7530, basis rate is 1.69%, historical quantile is 1.66%, and the spot reference is the SMM 1 tin average price [1]. - **Nickel (NI2603)**: Spot price is 144650, futures price is 147470, basis is - 2820, basis rate is 1.91%, historical quantile is 1.04%, and the spot reference is the SMM 1 imported nickel average price [1]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2603)**: Spot price is 14670, futures price is 14585, basis is 85, basis rate is 0.58%, historical quantile is 18.02%, and the spot reference is 304/2B:2*1240*C from Wuxi Hongwang (including trimming fee) [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2605)**: Spot price is 168000, futures price is 164820, basis is 3180, basis rate is 1.93%, historical quantile is 94.93%, and the spot reference is the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price [1]. - **Industrial Silicon (SI2605)**: Spot price is 9250, futures price is 8925, basis is 325, basis rate is 3.64%, historical quantile is 18.89%, and the spot reference is the SMM East China oxygen - passing Si5530 average price [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2604)**: Spot price is 1243.4, futures price is 1249.1, basis is - 5.7, basis rate is - 0.50%, historical quantile is 1.40%, and the spot reference is the Shanghai Gold Exchange gold spot AU (T + D) [1]. - **Silver (AG2604)**: Spot price is 29998.0, futures price is 30891.0, basis is - 893.0, basis rate is 2.90%, historical quantile is 0.20%, and the spot reference is the Shanghai Gold Exchange silver spot AG (T + D) [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2605)**: Spot price is 3080, futures price is 2802.0, basis is 278.0, basis rate is 9.92%, historical quantile is 67.80%, and the spot reference is the ex - factory price of common protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu [1]. - **Soybean Oil (Y2605)**: Spot price is 8710, futures price is 8382.0, basis is 328.0, basis rate is 3.91%, historical quantile is 61.10%, and the spot reference is the ex - factory price of grade - four soybean oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu [1]. - **Palm Oil (P2605)**: Spot price is 9290, futures price is 9362.0, basis is - 72.0, basis rate is - 0.77%, historical quantile is 6.00%, and the spot reference is the delivery price of 24 - degree palm oil at Huangpu Port [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM605)**: Spot price is 2480, futures price is 2325.0, basis is 155.0, basis rate is 6.67%, historical quantile is 76.60%, and the spot reference is the ex - factory price of rapeseed meal in Zhanjiang, Guangdong [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil (OI605)**: Spot price is 10240, futures price is 9446.0, basis is 794.0, basis rate is 8.41%, historical quantile is 96.40%, and the spot reference is the ex - factory price of grade - four rapeseed oil in Nantong, Jiangsu [1]. - **Corn (C2603)**: Spot price is 2340, futures price is 2281.0, basis is 59.0, basis rate is 2.59%, historical quantile is 63.80%, and the spot reference is the flat - hatch price of corn at Xizhou Port [1]. - **Corn Starch (CS2603)**: Spot price is 2630, futures price is 2535.0, basis is 95.0, basis rate is 3.75%, historical quantile is 43.60%, and the spot reference is the ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun, Jilin [1]. - **Live Pigs (H2603)**: Spot price is 12650, futures price is 11165.0, basis is 1485.0, basis rate is 13.30%, historical quantile is 85.00%, and the spot reference is the ex - farm price of live pigs (outer ternary) in Henan [1]. - **Eggs (JD2603)**: Spot price is 3960, futures price is 3021.0, basis is 939.0, basis rate is 31.08%, historical quantile is 90.30%, and the spot reference is the ex - farm price of eggs in Shijiazhuang, Hebei [1]. - **Cotton (CF605)**: Spot price is 15600, futures price is 14910.0, basis is 690.0, basis rate is 4.63%, historical quantile is 24.70%, and the spot reference is the market price of cotton in Xinjiang [1]. - **Sugar (SR605)**: Spot price is 5370, futures price is 5257.0, basis is 113.0, basis rate is 2.15%, historical quantile is 15.30%, and the spot reference is the spot price of white sugar at Liuzhou Station, with the origin of Guangxi [1]. - **Apples (AP605)**: Spot price is 9400, futures price is 9642.0, basis is - 242.0, basis rate is 2.51%, historical quantile is 14.10%, and the spot reference is the apple delivery theoretical price (daily/Steel Union) [1]. - **Jujubes (CJ605)**: Spot price is 8000, futures price is 8895.0, basis is - 895.0, basis rate is - 10.06%, historical quantile is 46.00%, and the spot reference is the wholesale price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei (Steel Union) [1]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Para - Xylene (PX603)**: Spot price is 7373.0, futures price is 7380.0, basis is - 7.0, basis rate is - 0.09%, historical quantile is 29.40%, and the spot reference is the spot price (CFR) of para - xylene at the main Chinese port, converted into RMB [1]. - **PTA (TA605)**: Spot price is 5265.0, futures price is 5332.0, basis is - 67.0, basis rate is 1.26%, historical quantile is 31.20%, and the spot reference is the market price (mid - price) of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in the East China region [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2605)**: Spot price is 3845.0, futures price is 3957.0, basis is - 112.0, basis rate is 2.83%, historical quantile is 15.40%, and the spot reference is the market price (mid - price) of ethylene glycol (MEG) in the East China region [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF603)**: Spot price is 6705.0, futures price is 6720.0, basis is - 15.0, basis rate is - 0.22%, historical quantile is 37.70%, and the spot reference is the market price (mainstream price) of polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm (direct - spinning)) in the East China market [1]. - **Styrene (EB2603)**: Spot price is 8095.0, futures price is 7913.0, basis is 182.0, basis rate is 2.30%, historical quantile is 65.20%, and the spot reference is the market price (spot benchmark price) of styrene in East China, China [1]. - **Methanol (MA605)**: Spot price is 2282.0, futures price is 2352.0, basis is - 70.0, basis rate is 2.98%, historical quantile is 8.20%, and the spot reference is the market price (spot benchmark price) of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu, China [1]. - **Urea (UR605)**: Spot price is 1780.0, futures price is 1817.0, basis is - 37.0, basis rate is 2.04%, historical quantile is 7.50%, and the spot reference is the market price (mainstream price) of small - particle urea in the Shandong region [1]. - **LLDPE (L2605)**: Spot price is 6875.0, futures price is 7049.0, basis is - 174.0, basis rate is 2.47%, historical quantile is 0.80%, and the spot reference is the duty - paid self - pick - up price (mid - price) of linear low - density polyethylene LLDPE (film grade) in Shandong [1]. - **PP (PP2605)**: Spot price is 6785.0, futures price is 6870.0, basis is - 85.0, basis rate is - 1.24%, historical quantile is 8.10%, and the spot reference is the duty - paid self - pick - up price (mid - price) of polypropylene PP (wire - drawing grade, melt index 2 - 4) in Zhejiang [1]. - **PVC (V2605)**: Spot price is 4680.0, futures price is 4895.0, basis is - 215.0, basis rate is - 4.39%, historical quantile is 24.70%, and the spot reference is the market price (mainstream price) of polyvinyl chloride (SG - 5) in the Changzhou market, China [1]. - **Caustic Soda (SH603)**: Spot price is 1869.0, futures price is 1964.0, basis is - 95.0, basis rate is - 4.85%, historical quantile is 29.20%, and the spot reference is the market price (mainstream price) of caustic soda (32% ion - membrane caustic soda) in the Shandong market, converted to 100% [1]. - **LPG (PG2603)**: Spot price is 4848.0, futures price is 4348.0, basis is 500.0, basis rate is 11.50%, historical quantile is 68.40%, and the spot reference is the market price of liquefied petroleum gas in the Guangzhou region [1]. - **Asphalt (BU2603)**: Spot price is 3210.0, futures price is 3478.0, basis is - 268.0, basis rate is - 7.71%, historical quantile is 4.30%, and the spot reference is the market price (mainstream price) of heavy - traffic asphalt in the Shandong region [1]. - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2603)**: Spot price is 13000.0, futures price is 13390.0, basis is - 390.0, basis rate is 2.91%, historical quantile is 4.60%, and the spot reference is the distribution price of cis - butadiene rubber (Daqing, BR9000) in East China by CNPC [1]. -

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - No information provided Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Base and Month Spread - The Shandong basis (+80) (non-Jingbo) decreased from -68 on 12/30 to -118 on 1/29, with a daily change of -38 [3]. - The East China basis (Zhenjiang warehouse) decreased from -118 on 12/30 to -178 on 1/29, with a daily change of -18 [3]. - The South China basis (Foshan warehouse) decreased from -138 on 12/30 to -158 on 1/29, with a daily change of -48 [3]. - The 01 - 03 spread decreased from -43 on 12/30 to -124 on 1/29, with a daily change of -2 [3]. - The 02 - 03 spread decreased from -7 on 12/30 to -2 on 1/29, with a daily change of -1 [3]. - The 03 - 06 spread decreased from -24 on 12/30 to 13 on 1/29, with a daily change of -8 [3]. BU Main Contract (02) - The price increased from 3038 on 12/30 to 3478 on 1/29, with a daily change of 68 [3]. - The trading volume decreased from 465494 on 12/30 to 621631 on 1/29, with a daily change of -97356 [3]. - The open interest increased from 440255 on 12/30 to 457004 on 1/29, with a daily change of 13230 [3]. - The warehouse receipts remained at 13580 on 1/29, with a daily change of 0 [3]. Crude Oil and Asphalt Prices - Brent crude oil price increased from 62.0 on 12/30 to 68.1 on 1/29, with a daily change of 1.6 [3]. - Jingbo asphalt price increased from 2980 on 12/30 to 3290 on 1/29, with a daily change of 10 [3]. - Shandong (non-Jingbo) asphalt price increased from 2890 on 12/30 to 3280 on 1/29, with a daily change of 30 [3]. - Zhenjiang warehouse asphalt price increased from 2920 on 12/30 to 3300 on 1/29, with a daily change of 50 [3]. - Foshan warehouse asphalt price increased from 2900 on 12/30 to 3320 on 1/29, with a daily change of 20 [3]. Profit - The asphalt - Ma Rui profit decreased from 339 on 12/30 to 315 on 1/29, with a daily change of -69 [3]. Trader Basis - The trader basis was 500 on 1/27, with the reference being the Shandong basis (+80) [3].