1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, suggesting buying on dips; government bonds are expected to move in a range [1] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, and waiting and seeing for glass [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Waiting and seeing or holding long positions in small quantities for copper; strengthening observation for aluminum; waiting and seeing for nickel; range trading or taking profit on previous long positions for tin; range trading for gold; bullish movement for silver; range - bound oscillation for lithium carbonate [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, caustic soda and soda ash for the time being, range trading for styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; weak oscillation for polyolefins [1] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Oscillatory adjustment for cotton and cotton yarn, oscillatory movement for apples and jujubes [1] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Opportunities for short - selling on rebounds for hogs; hedging post - festival contracts on rallies for eggs; being cautious about chasing highs and waiting for rebounds to hedge for corn; bearish on rallies for soybean meal; bullish oscillation for three major oils [1] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their current market conditions, including macro - economic factors, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. It also emphasizes the importance of paying attention to policy changes, inventory levels, and external market factors [1][5][7] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Medium - to long - term bullish, suggesting buying on dips. Market is volatile due to factors such as the Fed's interest - rate decision, China's industrial profit data, and consumer spending intentions [5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to move in a range. There is no significant negative news in the bond market, but there is limited downward space for bond yields without more capital inflows [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. The coal market shows short - term fluctuations, but the price increase may not be sustainable due to factors like weak downstream demand and stable supply [7] - **Rebar**: Range trading. The futures price is slightly higher than the valley - electricity cost of electric furnaces and lower than the flat - electricity cost. There is no significant supply - demand contradiction in the short term [7] - **Glass**: Waiting and seeing. The supply is stable, the market speculative demand is weak, and the downstream inventory is high. The price is expected to oscillate between 1050 - 1070 [8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level oscillation. Macro factors provide support, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see or hold long positions in small quantities, and beware of the risk of a pullback before the Spring Festival [9] - **Aluminum**: High - level oscillation. The supply of bauxite and alumina is relatively stable, and the demand is entering the off - season. It is recommended to strengthen observation [11] - **Nickel**: Oscillatory movement. The reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas has boosted the price, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [13] - **Tin**: Oscillatory movement. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. It is recommended for range trading or taking profit on previous long positions [13] - **Silver**: Bullish movement. Geopolitical tensions and changes in the Fed's leadership expectations have pushed up the price. It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about new positions [15] - **Gold**: Range trading. Similar to silver, geopolitical and Fed - related factors have led to a higher price center. It is recommended for range trading and be cautious about chasing highs [15] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound oscillation. The supply is affected by mine production, and the demand from the energy - storage terminal is good. The price is expected to be bullish [17] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The bottom may have been reached. The supply is high, the demand is weak, but the valuation is low. It is recommended for long - term low - buying and positive spread trading [17] - **Caustic Soda**: Low - level oscillation. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is high. It is recommended to wait and see [19] - **Styrene**: Oscillatory movement. The price has rebounded due to export growth and device maintenance, but the valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs [19] - **Rubber**: Oscillatory movement. The supply is shrinking, but the inventory pressure remains. The price is in a state of multi - empty tug - of - war [20] - **Urea**: Oscillatory movement. The supply is increasing, the demand from compound fertilizers is rising, and the inventory is at a low level. The price is expected to oscillate between 1730 - 1830 [21] - **Methanol**: Oscillatory movement. The supply is decreasing, the demand from methanol - to - olefins is weakening, and the traditional downstream demand is also weak [23] - **Polyolefins**: Weak oscillation. The supply is increasing, the demand from PE downstream is declining, and the price is expected to be weak with limited upside [24] - **Soda Ash**: Waiting and seeing. The supply is in excess, but the cost support is strong. It is recommended to leave the market temporarily [24] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Oscillatory adjustment. The global cotton supply - demand situation has changed, and the internal - external price difference has put pressure on the domestic market. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term and optimistic in the long term [24] - **Apples**: Oscillatory movement. The packaging and shipping in the production areas have accelerated slightly, but the overall market is still weak [26] - **Jujubes**: Oscillatory movement. The purchase price of Xinjiang gray jujubes in the 2025 production season is in a certain range, and the acquisition is based on quality [26] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: Bottom - building oscillation. In the short term, the price is restricted by supply - demand game. It is recommended to short on rebounds for off - season contracts. In the long term, be cautious about being bullish due to high - level production capacity and cost reduction [28] - **Eggs**: Rebound from a low level. The current valuation is high, and it is recommended to hedge post - festival contracts on rallies. Also, consider hedging the 05 and 06 contracts due to the possible post - poned supply pressure [30] - **Corn**: Limited upside. In the short term, the supply - demand is balanced, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs. In the long term, the supply - demand situation is relatively loose, restricting the price increase [32] - **Soybean Meal**: Low - level oscillation. The short - term support for the M2603 contract is at 3000 - 3030, and the pressure for the far - month 05 contract is at 2800 - 2850. It is recommended to be bearish on rallies [32] - **Oils**: Bullish oscillation. The three major oils are expected to move strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips and hold previous long positions [38]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 1 月 28 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 震荡 | 强势 | 强势 | 观望 | 高位波动加剧，短期资金获利了 结意愿强 | | 铜 | 2603 | 震荡 | 强势 | 弱势 | 观望 | 强预期弱现实 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 日内观点：强势 中期观点：强势 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：昨日夜盘纽约金 ...

诚然，确实有不少人持这一观点。桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧就是其中之一，他上周在世界经济论坛上表示： 《金融时报》周二刊登了一篇探讨各国央行黄金买入行为的文章。正如此前该报专栏作家罗伯特·阿姆斯特朗（Robert Armstrong）所指出的，"有人会认 为，全球央行正将外汇储备从美元转向黄金，相较于债券市场，此举是衡量'货币贬值'更有效的指标。" "当前全球经济存在严重的失衡问题，各国间的相互依存度也极高。美国需要大量的资本流入，而其他国家则担忧自身持有的美元资产可能被冻 结，这一固有趋势正发挥着关键作用，如今也已显现出现，具体表现为各国央行开始转向配置黄金。我们看到央行们在增持黄金储备，这是重 大冲突出现时的传统做法。 这是我们所熟知的货币体系走向终结的开端。受影响的并非只有美元，而是所有法定货币——英国、欧元区、日本均面临类似的债务问题，且 处于相同的国际关联格局中，这也是各国央行纷纷选择黄金的原因。" 或许达利欧的观点是正确的，但《金融时报》创办的每日新闻评论服务FT Alphaville编辑布莱斯·埃尔德（Bryce Elder）指出，目前这一论调仍缺乏实证支 撑。 黄金ETF的资金流动数据，能让散户的 ...

今天黄金市场在经历了昨日创历史新高后的大幅回落，目前进入剧烈波动后的高位盘整阶段。昨日伦敦金现货最高触及5111美元/盎司，但 随后大幅回撤，盘中一度跌破5000美元关口，波动性极高。 当前市场处于长期利多与短期超买风险的激烈博弈中。 利多因素 1. 特朗普对韩国加征关税（从15%上调至25%）等贸易紧张局势持续，以及对美联储独立性的担忧，削弱美元信用，推动资金寻求黄金作 为"终极货币"避险。 2. 各国央行（如波兰央行批准购入150吨黄金）为分散外储而持续购金，提供了坚实且"价格不敏感"的买盘支撑。中国央行也已连续14个月 增持黄金。 3. 美元指数近期疲软，降低了非美投资者购金成本。同时市场对美联储降息的预期，降低了持有黄金的机会成本。 利空因素 (引发短期震荡) 下方支撑： 日内强支撑：4950 - 4970美元（基于VC PMI框架的关键日线枢轴点区域）。 深度回调支撑：4860 - 4880美元（周线级别均线支撑与前期平台）。 技术信号解读 1. 金价年内涨幅已超17%，短期暴涨积累了巨大获利盘。昨日冲高回落的"倒V"走势，明确显示了技术性回调压力和市场脆弱性。 2. 上海期货交易所等机构近期频繁出 ...

近期黄金（XAU/USD）价格在触及历史高点后出现小幅回落，回调过程中持续吸引新的买盘入场，市场需求保持旺盛。 美联储此次货币政策决议涉及未来利率路径，相关表态可能影响美元走势，进而传导至黄金价格。市场普遍预期央行今年仍有两次降息可能，这一预期此前 与美元走弱相关，成为黄金价格上涨的背景之一。 美国近期公布的部分经济数据超出市场预期。美国人口普查局周一数据显示，11月耐用品订单环比增长5.3%，高于预期的0.5%；剔除运输类别的核心订单 环比增长0.5%，剔除国防订单后增幅达6.6%。耐用品订单增长反映美国相关行业需求情况，其对黄金市场的影响程度受到关注。 截至周二亚洲交易时段，金价仍处于5100美元关口下方，回调幅度有限，未改变前期上行格局。多重因素对黄金价格构成支撑，短期存在潜在阻力，但价格 上行路径仍受到关注。 各国央行持续购金是支撑黄金价格的因素之一。部分主要国家央行近期积极购入黄金，例如中国人民银行12月实现连续第14个月增持黄金，波兰国家银行、 印度储备银行和巴西中央银行在2025年末至2026年初也保持购金节奏。央行购金行为增加了黄金市场需求，巩固了其储备资产地位。 零售端需求稳步提升及黄金投资 ...

周一，金价首次站上5100美元，年初至今已涨超17%。2025年更是创下了自1979年以来的最佳年度表 现，涨幅高达 67.5%。面对这轮历史级黄金行情，普通投资者该如何把握布局机遇？ 香港唯一聚焦黄金矿业的ETF——易方达黄金矿（2824），锚定全球四大黄金产业区，精选30只金矿龙 头股布局。基金重仓紫金矿业、招金矿业等港股龙头，同时覆盖纽蒙特、巴里克矿业等海外头部标的。 地域分散+龙头集聚，既规避单一市场风险，又能充分享受全球黄金产业的增长红利，显现配置价值。 推动金价持续走强的宏观因素正在形成共振。一方面，美元体系面临长期结构性压力。年初以来，贸易 政策不确定性上升、地缘政治风险加剧以及政策沟通稳定性下降，削弱了市场对美元长期购买力的信 心。与此同时，美联储已进入降息周期，政策利率下行趋势压低了无风险收益率水平，使得美债、现金 类资产的吸引力持续下降。 1月26日-28 日，全港唯一黄金矿业 ETF——易方达黄金矿（2824）开放申购，一键布局全球黄金矿业 龙头，助你捕捉黄金牛市的机遇。 易方达黄金矿（2824） 跟踪Solactive全球黄金矿业精选指数，该指数自 2023 年 3 月 17 日基日以 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.09% to close at 4132.61 points, with a daily high of 4160.99 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.85% to 14316.64 points, reaching a high of 14532.9 points [1] - The ChiNext Index dropped by 0.91% to 3319.15 points, with a peak of 3367.99 points [1] ETF Market Performance Overall Performance - The median return of stock ETFs was -0.4% [2] - The highest return among scale index ETFs was 5.37% for the Shenwan Lingshin SSE 50 ETF [2] - The highest return in industry index ETFs was 6.23% for the China Tai Index Nonferrous Metal Mining Theme ETF [2] - The highest return in strategy index ETFs was 3.17% for the Morgan SSE 300 Free Cash Flow ETF [2] - The highest return in style index ETFs was 2.1% for the Yinhua SSE 300 Value ETF [2] - The highest return in theme index ETFs was 8.67% for the Huaxia SSE Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF [2] Top Gainers and Losers - The top three ETFs with the highest gains were: - Huaxia SSE Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF (8.67%) [5] - Ping An SSE Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF (8.57%) [5] - ICBC Credit Suisse SSE Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF (8.45%) [5] - The top three ETFs with the largest declines were: - Fortune SSE Satellite Industry ETF (-8.16%) [6] - China Merchants SSE Satellite Industry ETF (-7.97%) [6] - GF SSE Satellite Industry ETF (-7.91%) [6] Fund Flows - The top three ETFs with the highest inflows were: - Penghua SSE Segmented Chemical Industry Theme ETF (14.47 billion) [8] - Southern SSE Shenwan Nonferrous Metals ETF (11.45 billion) [8] - Guotai SSE Semiconductor Materials Equipment Theme ETF (11.26 billion) [8] - The top three ETFs with the largest outflows were: - Huatai-PB SSE 300 ETF (183.76 billion) [9] - Huaxia SSE 300 ETF (147.83 billion) [9] - Jiashi SSE 300 ETF (136.13 billion) [9] Margin Trading Overview - The top three ETFs with the highest margin buy amounts were: - Huatai-PB SSE 300 ETF (1.114 billion) [11] - E Fund ChiNext ETF (540 million) [11] - Huaxia SSE Sci-Tech 50 ETF (516 million) [11] - The top three ETFs with the highest margin sell amounts were: - Southern SSE 1000 ETF (68.87 million) [12] - Southern SSE 500 ETF (54.47 million) [12] - Huaxia SSE 1000 ETF (43.57 million) [12] Institutional Insights - Dongwu Futures indicated that gold prices still have upward momentum due to ongoing de-dollarization, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases [14] - Guotai Futures noted that the annual increase in gold prices for 2025 is expected to reach the highest level since 1979, with potential for further upward movement [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sharp rise in international gold prices is the result of geopolitical turmoil, the shaking of the global political and economic order, and a continuously loose liquidity environment. In 2026, the Fed is expected to continue to cut interest rates, and the loose liquidity environment provides strong support for the rise of precious metals. Global investors' strategic allocation demand for precious metals has increased, and the scale of gold and silver ETFs has continued to expand, driving up precious metal prices. Short - term silver has risen significantly, and there may be some pressure for funds to take profits, while gold is more stable [4]. - Morgan Stanley expects that driven by geopolitical uncertainty, continuous central bank gold purchases, and strong ETF demand, the gold price is expected to rise to $5,700 per ounce in the second half of the year. If the Fed starts to cut interest rates in 2026, it may further support strong physical gold demand [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 on the previous day were 1146.58 and 1143.32 respectively, with increases of 28.20 (2.52%) and 27.68 (2.48%) compared to the day before. The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 on the previous day were 27,189 and 27,207 respectively, with increases of 2259 (9.06%) and 2242 (8.98%) compared to the day before [3]. - **Positions and Volumes**: The positions of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 were 85,261 and 215,820 respectively, and the trading volumes were 76,211 and 395,962 respectively. The positions of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 were 169,868 and 322,579 respectively, and the trading volumes were 605,689 and 965,900 respectively [3]. - **Spot Premium and Discount**: The spot premiums and discounts of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 were - 2.32 and 0.94 respectively, and those of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 were 324 and 306 respectively [3]. Spot Market - **Prices**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold T + D on the previous day was 1144.26, up 33.91 (3.05%) from the day before. The closing price of London Gold was $5042.75 per troy ounce, up $21.76 (0.44%) from the day before. The closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D on the previous day was 27,513, up 2525 (10.10%) from the day before. The closing price of London Silver was $106.61 per troy ounce, up $0.53 (0.52%) from the day before [3]. - **Price Spreads**: The current spreads of Shanghai Gold 2606 - Shanghai Gold 2604 and Shanghai Silver 2606 - Shanghai Silver 2604 were 3.26 and - 18.00 respectively. The current gold - to - silver ratio in the spot market was 41.59, and the ratios of Shanghai Gold to London Gold and Shanghai Silver to London Silver were 1.01 and 1.15 respectively [3]. Inventory - **Futures Exchanges**: The current inventories of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 103,029 kg and 573,810 kg respectively, with changes of + 1020 kg and - 7280 kg compared to the day before. The current inventories of gold and silver on the COMEX were 35,941,502 troy ounces and 415,241,837 troy ounces respectively, with changes of - 202,778 troy ounces and - 1,183,026 troy ounces compared to the day before [3]. Related Derivatives and Indicators - **Indices and Yields**: The current values of the US Dollar Index, S&P 500 Index, 10 - year US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil price, and US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate were 97.04, 6,950.23, 4.22%, $64.89, and 6.9572 respectively, with changes of - 0.46, + 34.62, - 0.02%, - 0.55, and - 0.0070 compared to the day before [3]. - **ETF and CFTC Positions**: The current positions of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF were 1,087 tons and 15,974 tons respectively, with changes of 0 tons and - 116 tons compared to the day before. The current net positions of CFTC speculators in gold and silver were 244,770 and 25,214 respectively, with changes of - 6468 and - 6846 compared to the day before [3]. Macroeconomic News - **Geopolitical**: The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group has entered the US Central Command's area of responsibility in the western Indian Ocean. If the White House orders an attack on Iran, the strike group could launch military operations within "one or two days." Trump said the situation in Iran is "changing rapidly" and that Iran wants to reach an agreement [4]. - **Trade**: Trump announced that the reciprocal tariffs on South Korean automobiles, timber, pharmaceuticals, and all other goods will be raised from 15% to 25% due to the South Korean Congress's failure to approve the trade agreement [4]. - **Fed Interest Rate Expectations**: According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 2.8%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 97.2%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 15.5%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 84.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 0.4% [4]. - **Commodity Market Analysis**: An analyst pointed out that this is one of the most glorious days in the silver market. The price of silver has risen rapidly due to its small market size and low liquidity. Retail investors are flocking in, and there is a (relatively small - scale) gap in the spot market. This is good news for silver miners, but selling some future production in the futures market may bring some selling pressure [4]. - **Economic Data**: The monthly rate of US durable goods orders in November was 5.3%, the largest increase since May 2025 [4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 1 月 27 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 日内观点：弱势 中期观点：强势 参考观点：观望 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 震荡 | 强势 | 弱势 | 观望 | 短期资金获利了结 | | 铜 | 2603 | 震荡 | 强势 | 弱势 | 观望 | 短期资金获利了结 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 核心逻辑：昨日夜盘海外金银价格的纷纷冲高回落，白银高位下挫近 10%。我们认为这是短期市场累 计较大涨幅后，由资 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Precious Metals Market**: The precious metals market is currently driven by central bank gold purchases, indicating a long-term cycle independent of general commodity trends. The valuation of precious metals is undergoing a comprehensive recovery, with gold expected to experience upward fluctuations over the next 3-5 years, supported by central bank buying during corrections of around 5% [2][4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Gold Valuation**: The current valuation of gold is recovering, with the market shifting from a short-term cycle to a long-term cycle driven by central bank actions. The valuation is expected to continue improving, with significant support from central bank purchases [2][4]. - **Aluminum Market**: Aluminum prices have room for growth, benefiting from stable global manufacturing PMI and increasing photovoltaic demand, with an expected annual growth rate of 3-5%. The copper-aluminum price ratio is expected to stabilize, with conservative estimates suggesting aluminum prices could reach 30,000 RMB [1][9][12]. - **Supply Constraints**: Global electricity shortages are limiting aluminum supply, particularly in North America, which may face an energy crisis. China's dual carbon policy restricts high-energy aluminum production, further supporting future price increases [10][11][12]. - **Copper Market**: The copper market is benefiting from AI and energy transition trends, with long-term demand growth anticipated. The geopolitical tensions are increasing resource competition, making copper prices more resilient [16][17]. - **Lithium Market**: The lithium carbonate market is entering a price increase cycle due to supply constraints from production halts in Yichun and limited overseas resources. Prices are expected to rise to 150,000 to 200,000 RMB [3][19][20]. Additional Important Insights - **Aluminum Sector**: The aluminum sector is characterized by high dividends and valuation recovery potential. Companies like Tianshan Aluminum and China Hongqiao are seen as undervalued, while companies like Shenhuo and Yun Aluminum have significant profit elasticity [1][14][15]. - **Stock Valuation**: The stock market for precious metals has only partially recovered, with current near-term valuations around 20 times earnings and long-term around 15 times, compared to a historical average of 25 times [4][5]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The focus is shifting towards companies with significant mineral reserves, such as Shandong Gold and Zhaojin Mining, as the market increasingly values long-term reserves over short-term production [5][30]. - **Tin Market**: The tin market is experiencing strong demand, particularly from the semiconductor industry, with supply constraints expected to keep prices elevated. Companies like Tin Industry Co. and Huaxi Nonferrous are highlighted for their potential [24][30]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment in the metals market is optimistic, with various sectors showing potential for growth driven by supply constraints, changing demand dynamics, and supportive government policies. Investors are encouraged to focus on companies with strong fundamentals and significant reserves to capitalize on these trends.