Core Viewpoint - The report from ING's Ewa Manthey indicates that there is still room for gold prices to rise this year, driven by potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, ongoing central bank purchases, and inflows into gold ETFs [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in the upcoming meeting is estimated at 93% according to traders [1] Group 2: Central Bank Purchases - Central bank purchases remain robust, with the World Gold Council reporting an increase of 166 tons in global official gold reserves during the second quarter [1] Group 3: Gold ETF Investments - Gold ETFs experienced strong investment in the second quarter, contributing to the bullish outlook for gold prices [1] Group 4: Price Forecasts - ING has raised its gold price forecast for the third quarter from $3,200 per ounce to $3,400 per ounce and for the fourth quarter from $3,200 per ounce to $3,450 per ounce [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips [1] - Silver: ★★, recommending buying on rebounds [1] - Copper: ★★, advising to try buying on dips [1] - Zinc: ★★, suggesting selling on rebounds [1] - Lead: ★, indicating that rebounds are under pressure [1] - Tin: ★★, showing rebounds are under pressure [1] - Aluminum: ★, suggesting rebounds are under pressure [1] - Nickel: ★★, indicating rebounds are under pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★, showing it is under pressure [1] - Polysilicon: ★, recommending a cautious bullish view [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, suggesting a bullish view [1] Core Views of the Report - Precious metals like gold and silver are influenced by multiple factors such as US data supporting higher interest - rate cut expectations, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical events, maintaining high levels. Long - term strategic allocation of gold is recommended, and silver also has an upward long - term trend [1][2] - Copper is affected by copper concentrate disruptions and a weak US dollar, which help it stop falling and rebound. However, the off - season demand and inventory accumulation limit the rebound space. Long - term optimism remains [1][7] - Zinc shows an external - strong and internal - weak situation. Overseas, there are issues like concentrated zinc warehouse receipts, while domestic demand is weak. Long - term, supply increases and demand decreases [1][10] - Aluminum's price rebound is under pressure due to insufficient terminal demand and inventory accumulation [1][14] - Nickel's price rebound is under pressure because of weak downstream transactions and inventory pressure [1][18] - Lithium carbonate's fundamentals have marginally improved, with total inventory starting to decline after continuous accumulation. There is a supply hype expectation, and it is recommended to try buying on dips [1][22] Summary by Variety Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Gold prices remain high due to factors such as the expected meeting between Putin and Trump, US data supporting higher interest - rate cut expectations, and continuous central bank gold purchases [2] - **Basic Logic**: US employment is weakening, but inflation expectations are rising. Some countries' stances on tariffs are changing, and central banks are continuing to buy gold. The long - term bullish logic of gold remains unchanged [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold has clear support around 770 in the short - term. Silver is in a range of 9100 - 9350, and long - term buying is supported by fundamentals and market trends [3] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper fluctuated narrowly overnight, first rising and then falling [6] - **Industrial Logic**: There have been continuous disruptions in copper concentrates, and overseas smelters are under maintenance. Domestic copper smelting production has increased, but it is the off - season for demand, and inventories are accumulating [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for copper to fully correct and then try buying on dips. Long - term, be bullish on copper. The range for Shanghai copper is [77500, 79500], and for LME copper is [9550, 9750] dollars per ton [7] Zinc - **Market Review**: LME zinc has stood above the 2800 mark, while Shanghai zinc fluctuated narrowly [9] - **Industrial Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant in 2025, and domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase. However, demand is weak due to high temperatures, floods, and the off - season [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: For short - term, take profit on previous short positions and wait and see. Long - term, look for opportunities to short on rallies. The range for Shanghai zinc is [22200, 22800], and for LME zinc is [2750, 2850] dollars per ton [10] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rebounded in the short - term, while alumina rebounded and then declined [12] - **Industrial Logic**: The cost of electrolytic aluminum has decreased, and inventories are rising. The demand side is weak. For alumina, overseas bauxite shipments are smooth, and inventories are accumulating [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Sell on short - term rebounds of Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to inventory accumulation during the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [14] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices' rebounds were under pressure, and stainless steel rebounded and then declined [16] - **Industrial Logic**: The price of nickel ore in the Philippines is falling, and domestic nickel supply - demand conditions have improved limitedly. Stainless steel's production cut effect is weakening, and inventory pressure has reappeared in the off - season [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Sell on rebounds of nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [119000 - 122000] [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 increased in position and rose by more than 5% [20] - **Industrial Logic**: The total inventory has stopped accumulating, and production has decreased. The compliance risk of lithium mining licenses in Jiangxi is a key point. The supply - demand situation may improve in August [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: There is still an expectation of supply speculation. Try buying on dips in the range of [715000 - 73600] [22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant increase in gold prices, driven by central banks' continuous accumulation of gold reserves and strong technical factors, with gold futures for December 2025 rising by $49.3 to $3482.7 per ounce, marking a 1.44% increase [1] - Central banks' purchases of gold are identified as a key driver for the 30% increase in gold prices this year, with expectations that this trend will continue, although the pace of purchases may slow down as prices rise [1] - The article notes that the U.S. Department of Labor reported an increase in initial jobless claims to 226,000, exceeding market expectations, indicating a weakening labor market, which contributed to the rise in gold prices [1] Group 2 - On the technical side, December gold futures are noted to have a strong overall technical advantage for the bulls [1] - Silver futures for September also saw an increase, rising by 62.8 cents to $38.530 per ounce, reflecting a 1.66% gain [1]

一是高金价下需控制成本，今年上半年伦敦现货黄金价格上涨25.7%，央行暂缓增持避高位接盘； 来源：百利好环球官方微博 世界黄金协会发布的2025年二季度《全球黄金需求趋势报告》显示，二季度全球黄金需求总量（含场外交易）达1249吨，同比 增长3%；按价值算，同比大增45%至1320亿美元，创历史新高。 当下全球经济与地缘政治形势复杂，黄金需求展现韧性，但全球央行购金节奏放缓。二季度央行购金总量虽仍处高位，可增速 下滑，同比减少21%。购金前五的央行或主权基金为波兰央行、阿塞拜疆国家石油基金、土耳其央行、哈萨克斯坦共和国央行 和中国央行。 央行购金放缓是短期战术与长期战略平衡的结果。 二是储备目标阶段性达成，购金紧迫性降低，行为更审慎； 三是流动性管理需求，部分央行如哈萨克斯坦在高金价下战术性抛售，维持流动性。 此外，二季度下半段部分地缘政治局势缓和，市场避险情绪降温，也降低了央行短期内大规模购金的紧迫性。 受访专家称，央行购金节奏调整是"战术暂停"，地缘风险升级时很可能重拾增长。盘和林指出，黄金市场不单纯由央行购金驱 动，央行购金减少不一定影响金价波动，但若无全球经济风险扰动，会致金价横盘或下跌，影响投资人信 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, particularly emphasizing investment opportunities in precious metals [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant adjustments in U.S. employment data, suggesting a shift in focus towards precious metal investments due to increased economic uncertainty [4]. - It notes a decline in various metal prices, with precious metals experiencing a mixed performance, while industrial metals face downward pressure due to seasonal demand and tariff impacts [5][10]. - The report suggests that the central bank's continued gold purchases indicate a long-term bullish trend for gold prices, with specific companies recommended for investment [5][22]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.94%, while the Shenzhen Component and CSI 300 Index dropped by 1.58% and 1.75%, respectively. The non-ferrous metals index underperformed, decreasing by 4.62% [6]. - Precious metals saw a 4.11% decline, with industrial metals like aluminum and copper also experiencing significant drops [10]. - Year-to-date performance shows precious metals up by 30.47%, indicating a strong recovery potential despite recent declines [10]. Price Changes and Company Valuations - The report details price changes for various metals, with copper, aluminum, and lead showing declines of 1.42%, 2.64%, and 2.11%, respectively, while gold prices increased by 2.32% [15]. - Key companies in the industry are evaluated, with specific price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios provided for major players like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [19][20]. Precious Metals Analysis - The report indicates that the U.S. non-farm payrolls data has created a favorable environment for gold investments, with central bank purchases expected to support price increases [22]. - The gold ETF holdings have slightly decreased, but the overall sentiment remains positive due to ongoing purchases by the Chinese central bank [22]. Industrial Metals Overview - Copper supply is under pressure due to increased tariffs on imports, while demand remains stable with slight increases in production rates [33]. - Aluminum prices have decreased, but the report anticipates a long-term upward trend due to supply constraints and policy support [49]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential in the metals sector, particularly those involved in gold mining and aluminum production [5][19].

WGC指出，第二季度各国央行继续购金，尽管购买节奏较此前有所放缓，但依然比2010至2021年间的季度平均值 高出41%。报告称，较高的金价可能抑制了央行的购金力度，但在当前经济与地缘政治不确定性背景下，购金热 情依然显著偏高，预计未来12个月内仍将持续。 美国贵金属交易商US Money Reserve总裁Philip Diehl表示，看不出中央银行会停止购买黄金的理由，未来可能会 有更多央行加入购金行列。他指出，全球对美国在经济与地缘政治领导力方面的怀疑情绪正在削弱对美元的信 心，各国央行出于对美元敞口进行对冲的需要，增持黄金是必然选择。 （东方IC） 在地缘紧张局势加剧以及美国一系列关税政策不确定性的影响下，投资者纷纷涌入黄金等避险资产。全球投资者 普遍感到担忧，尤其是在新兴市场。 值得一提的是，上月，欧洲央行发布报告称，随着金价屡创新高，按市场价格计算，去年黄金占全球外汇储备的 比例达到20%，超越欧元的16%位居第二，仅落后于占比46%的美元。 根据世界黄金协会（WGC）报告，今年第二季度全球黄金总需求（含场外交易投资）同比增长3%至1249吨，若 以美元计算，同比上涨45%，达到1320亿美元。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Cautiously go long [1] - Silver: Stabilize and try to go long [1] - Copper: Buy on dips [1] - Zinc: Short on rebounds [1] - Lead: Bearish [1] - Tin: Under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure [1] - Nickel: Under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound [1] - Polysilicon: Rebound [1] - Lithium carbonate: Rebound [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the gold and silver markets are affected by US inflation data and tariff negotiations, facing adjustments, but the long - term bullish logic of gold remains unchanged due to factors such as central bank gold purchases and loose monetary policies [1][2][3] - Copper has short - term inventory pressure due to the traditional off - season, but is bullish in the long - term because of the tight supply of copper concentrates and the increasing demand from the new energy industry [1][7][8] - Zinc is under short - term pressure due to the off - season and increasing supply, and is recommended to short on rebounds in the long - term as supply increases and demand decreases throughout the year [1][11][12] - Aluminum is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and weak demand in the off - season, and short - term rebound shorting is recommended [1][15][16] - Nickel is facing pressure due to weak downstream support and inventory accumulation, and shorting on rebounds is advised [1][19][20] - Lithium carbonate has a bearish outlook in the short - term as the fundamentals show inventory accumulation and weak demand, and shorting on rebounds is recommended [1][23][24] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: US inflation data exceeds expectations, which weakens the interest - rate cut expectation, and the tariff risk fades, causing the gold and silver markets to face adjustments [2] - **Basic Logic**: The US - Mexico tariff negotiation is postponed, US data reduces the interest - rate cut expectation, and global gold demand continues to grow. In the short - term, the tariff risk fades, but in the long - term, the long - bull logic of gold remains unchanged [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support around 760 for gold in the short - term. For silver, wait for it to stop falling and stabilize before going long as its long - term fundamentals are positive [4] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper is under pressure and falls back, testing the support at the 78,000 level [7] - **Industry Logic**: In the short - term, the contradiction lies in the inventory accumulation in the off - season and the inventory return pressure. In the medium - term, there is a co - existence of tight supply of copper concentrates and high production of electrolytic copper. In the long - term, there is uncertainty in demand due to trade wars and the potential demand explosion in the new energy field [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: After the tariff adjustment, COMEX copper plummets, and Shanghai copper is under pressure. Wait for copper to fully adjust before lightly going long. In the long - term, be bullish on copper [8] Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc fluctuates narrowly at a low level [11] - **Industry Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrates is loose, and domestic refined zinc production increases. The demand is weak in the off - season [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: After the macro - sentiment fades, zinc returns to its fundamentals. Short - term pressure causes it to fall back and consolidate at a low level. Partially take profit on previous short positions, and short on rebounds in the long - term [12] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are under pressure and weak, and alumina prices fall back [14] - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, inventory accumulates and demand is weak in the off - season. For alumina, the supply - demand pattern is loose [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on short - term rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, and pay attention to the inventory accumulation progress in the off - season [16] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices are under pressure and weaken, while stainless steel rebounds slightly [18] - **Industry Logic**: The price of nickel ore in the Philippines falls, and domestic nickel supply - demand is weak with inventory accumulation. Stainless steel production cuts weaken, and there is still over - supply in the off - season [19] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to downstream inventory changes [20] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 reduces positions for four consecutive days, with a significant decline in trading volume and a drop of over 4% [22] - **Industry Logic**: The total inventory continues to accumulate, but the price increase transfers inventory from upstream to intermediate links. There are risks in Jiangxi's lithium mining licenses, and the market is volatile [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: As the speculative atmosphere fades, short on rebounds in the range of 68,000 - 70,500 [24]

Core Viewpoint - Global gold demand continues to grow strongly against the backdrop of record-high prices, with significant contributions from investment in gold ETFs and geopolitical uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Global Gold Demand - In Q2, global gold demand increased by 3% year-on-year to 1249 tons, with a value surge of 45% to a record $132 billion [2]. - The demand for gold ETFs saw a substantial increase, marking the second consecutive quarter of growth, driven by rising prices and the asset's safe-haven appeal [3]. Group 2: Central Bank Purchases - Central banks slowed their gold purchases in Q2, with a total of 166 tons added to global official reserves, the lowest level since 2022, but still 41% higher than the average from 2010 to 2021 [4]. - Despite the slowdown, central banks are expected to continue purchasing gold due to ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties [4]. Group 3: China Market Dynamics - In Q2, China's gold ETF inflows reached 464 billion RMB (approximately $65 billion, 61 tons), marking the strongest quarterly performance ever [5]. - The total inflow for the first half of the year reached 631 billion RMB (about $88 billion), with a 116% increase in total assets under management, reaching 152.5 billion RMB (approximately $21.3 billion) by the end of June [5]. Group 4: Price Trends and Investment Demand - The average LBMA gold price in Q2 reached a record of $3280.35 per ounce, a 40% year-on-year increase and a 15% quarter-on-quarter increase [8]. - Overall investment demand, including ETFs, bars, and coins, grew by 78% year-on-year, with expectations for gold prices to potentially reach $3675 per ounce by year-end [6]. Group 5: Recycling and Jewelry Demand - Despite high prices, recycling activities remain low, with Indian consumers increasingly opting for old-for-new exchanges or using gold as loan collateral [8]. - Jewelry demand showed a divergence in volume and value, with tonnage generally declining but spending on gold jewelry increasing [8].

Global Gold Demand Trends - In Q2 2025, global gold demand reached 1249 tons, a 3% year-on-year increase, with a value of $132 billion, marking a 45% increase and setting a new historical high [1] - The total gold supply also grew by 3% to 1249 tons, with gold mine production hitting a historical high in Q2 [1][3] - Investment activities in gold surged due to economic and geopolitical uncertainties, with a notable 26% increase in gold prices over recent months [1][2] Investment Demand - Gold ETF investments were a key driver of demand, with inflows of 170 tons in Q2, contrasting with outflows in the same period of 2024 [2] - The total demand for gold ETFs in the first half of 2025 reached 397 tons, the highest since 2020 [2] - Investment in gold bars and coins rose by 11% to 307 tons, with Chinese demand increasing by 44% to 115 tons [2] Central Bank Purchases - Global central banks continued to purchase gold, adding 166 tons in Q2 2025, although the pace of purchases has slowed [3] - A survey indicated that 95% of central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months [3] Jewelry Demand - Global gold jewelry consumption fell by 14% year-on-year in Q2, nearing 2020's low levels, despite a rise in value to $36 billion [3] - In China, gold jewelry demand dropped to 69 tons, a 20% year-on-year decline, marking the weakest Q2 since 2007 [3][4] - The overall gold jewelry consumption in China for the first half of 2025 was 194 tons, a 28% decrease compared to the previous year [3] Retail Market Dynamics - The decline in jewelry demand has led to a reduction in the number of retail outlets, further constraining consumer purchasing options [4] - The trend of consolidating underperforming stores may benefit the market in the long run by shifting focus towards emotional value and design [4][5] - High-end jewelry demand remains strong, driven by emerging brands rather than established chains [5]

Core Insights - Global gold demand, including over-the-counter (OTC) transactions, is projected to increase by 3% year-on-year to 1,248.8 tons in Q2 2025, with a significant rise in value by 45% to $13.2 billion [1][6] - Central banks remain a major source of gold demand, although their purchases decreased by 21% to 166.5 tons in Q2 2025 [2][5] - The second quarter saw a 4% increase in gold recycling, reaching 347.2 tons [2] Supply and Demand Overview - Gold supply in Q2 2025 includes: - Gold mine production of 908.6 tons, a 1% increase year-on-year [4] - Total gold supply of 1,248.8 tons, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase [4] - Gold demand breakdown for Q2 2025: - Jewelry consumption decreased by 14% to 341.0 tons, the lowest since Q3 2020 [5] - Investment demand surged by 78%, with bar demand increasing by 21% [5][6] - Total gold demand reached 1,079.0 tons, a 10% year-on-year increase [4] Market Trends - The long-term trend of central banks reallocating assets from U.S. assets to gold remains unchanged, despite a downward revision in expected central bank purchases for the year [5] - The potential for further increases in gold ETFs is noted, driven by significant inflows in the first half of the year [5]