1、中东局势（以色列与伊朗冲突）、德国政治不确定性及特朗普对好莱坞征收100%关税的政策扰动仍在，持续刺激避险需求，对黄金价格有一定的支撑作 用。但美英达成贸易协议，使得市场避险情绪显著降温，风险偏好升温，导致国际金价大幅下挫，这显示出地缘政治局势对黄金价格影响的复杂性，不同事 件的综合作用使得市场对避险需求的态度有所转变。 2、美联储5月7日维持利率不变，且声明强调"通胀压力仍需观察"，市场对6月降息预期降温，美元指数得到支撑有所回升，这压制了以美元计价的黄金的吸 引力。同时，市场对即将公布的美国4月CPI数据（预期3.5%）较为关注，若数据超预期，可能进一步强化美联储鹰派立场，对黄金价格形成更大压力；若 数据疲软，则可能使降息预期升温，从而对黄金价格产生支撑。 3、2025年一季度全球央行净购金290吨，中国连续17个月增持黄金储备，央行的持续购金行为表明对黄金长期价值的认可，从长期来看，为黄金价格提供了 有力支撑。不过在短期，央行购金行为对黄金市场价格的影响相对较小，难以抵消其他宏观因素如货币政策和地缘政治局势变化带来的短期波动。 黄金技术面分析： 黄金消息面解析 昨日现货黄金价格开盘3366.2美元/ ...

Group 1: Market Overview - In 2024, global gold demand reached a record high of 4,974 tons, a 20% increase year-on-year, with total consumption value exceeding $382 billion [1][10] - The average annual gold price rose to $2,386 per ounce, marking a 23% increase from 2023, the largest increase in nearly a decade [1][10] - Gold supply increased by 1% year-on-year, with gold mine production estimated to grow by 1%, while recycling supply surged by 11% [1][10] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - Jewelry and investment demand exhibited a contrasting trend; global jewelry consumption fell to a historic low of 1,877 tons, down 11% year-on-year, but the consumption value increased by 9% to $144 billion [2][25] - Investment demand was the primary driver, with total investment volume rising to 1,180 tons, a 25% increase year-on-year [2][48] - Central bank gold purchases exceeded 1,000 tons for the third consecutive year, with a net purchase of 1,045 tons in 2024, primarily from emerging market central banks [2][12] Group 3: Regional Insights - In China, jewelry demand declined by 24% to 479 tons due to economic slowdown and high gold prices, while India showed resilience with only a 2% decline in demand [25][33] - The Middle East and Turkey saw a rebound in demand in Q4, with an 18% quarter-on-quarter increase due to price corrections [2][35] - The U.S. experienced a continuous decline in jewelry demand for 11 consecutive quarters, reaching a five-year low, while European demand also fell to the lowest level since 2020 [39][40] Group 4: Future Outlook - The demand for gold in the technology sector is expected to grow by 7% to 326 tons in 2024, driven by the demand for AI hardware and 5G devices [3][12] - Investment demand is anticipated to remain strong in 2025, supported by central bank interest rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties [3][12] - Jewelry consumption may face pressure from high gold prices, but the wedding season in India and recovery in emerging markets could provide some support [3][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Global central banks' expectations of interest rate cuts and fiscal easing, along with continuous gold purchases by multiple central banks and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, may make precious metal prices prone to rising and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions when prices decline [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: On May 7, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures active - contract closing price was 803.50, with a trading volume of 413,639.00 and an open interest of 127,407.00. The Shanghai spot gold (Au T + D) closing price was 792.87 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 65,320.00 and an open interest of 212,772.00. The COMEX gold futures active - contract closing price was 3372.60 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 275,912.00 and an open interest of - 2,384.00. The London gold spot price was 3392.25 dollars/ounce. The SPDR Gold ETF holding was 937.67 tons, and the iShare Gold ETF holding was 437.55 tons [1]. - **Silver**: The Shanghai silver futures active - contract closing price was 8252.00, with a trading volume of 537,686.00 and an open interest of 232,016.00. The Shanghai spot silver (Ag T + D) closing price was 8.00 yuan/kilogram, with a trading volume of 442,110.00 and an open interest of 3,542,778.00. The COMEX silver futures active - contract closing price was 33.22 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 53,799.00 and an open interest of 109,710.00. The London silver spot price was 33.23 dollars/ounce. The US iShare Silver ETF holding was 13,958.73 tons, and the Canadian PSLV Silver ETF holding was 5807.39 tons [1]. - **Price Ratios**: The ratio of Shanghai gold futures to Shanghai silver futures was 97.37, the ratio of New York gold futures to New York silver futures was 100.18, and the ratio of London gold spot to London silver spot was 103.19 [1]. 2. Important Information - **Macroeconomic and Policy**: The Fed paused interest rate cuts again, warning of stagflation risks and reiterating increased "uncertainty". Powell said not to rush to cut interest rates. China's foreign exchange reserves in April increased by 1.27% month - on - month, and the central bank has been increasing gold holdings for six consecutive months. The US Congress passed a temporary spending bill until September 30, and the CBO predicted that the Treasury's funds might be exhausted between August and October, which would slow down the Fed's balance - sheet reduction. The Trump administration planned to cut the 2026 fiscal budget by 183 billion dollars. The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in April, and may cut interest rates 2 - 3 more times by the end of 2025. The Bank of England may cut interest rates 2 - 3 times by the end of 2025. The market expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates around July [1]. - **Geopolitical**: If the EU's negotiation with the US fails, it is prepared to impose retaliatory tariffs on Boeing aircraft [1]. 3. Trading Strategy Investors are advised to mainly lay out long positions when prices decline. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3150 - 3250 and the resistance level around 3500 - 3700; for Shanghai gold, the support level is around 750 - 780 and the resistance level is around 850 - 900. For London silver, the support level is around 28 - 30 and the resistance level is around 35 - 36; for Shanghai silver, the support level is around 7400 - 7800/8000 and the resistance level is around 8600 - 8900 [1].

Core Insights - The recent fluctuations in gold prices have surprised many, with prices rising sharply after a brief decline following the May Day holiday [2][3] - The volatility in gold prices is influenced by various factors, including geopolitical tensions, economic data from the U.S., and central bank purchasing behavior [5][6] Price Fluctuations - Gold prices experienced a significant drop from a historical high of $3509.9 per ounce on April 22 to $3220 per ounce by May 4, marking an 8% decrease [2] - Following the holiday, gold prices rebounded sharply, with spot gold rising over $80 to exceed $3360 per ounce on May 6, representing a 2.75% increase in just one day [3] Factors Behind Price Changes - The announcement of a 100% tariff on imported films by Trump led to a sell-off in U.S. entertainment stocks, prompting investors to seek refuge in gold [5] - Mixed economic indicators from the U.S., including a decline in GDP and rising unemployment claims, have shifted expectations towards potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, weakening the dollar and increasing gold demand [5] - Geopolitical instability, including conflicts in the Middle East and ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine, has further driven investors towards gold as a safe haven [5] Central Bank Activity - Central banks globally have increased their gold purchases, with a reported 12% increase in gold buying in Q4 2024 compared to the previous year [6] - India's gold reserves now account for over 9% of its total reserves, indicating a trend of reducing reliance on the dollar and increasing demand for gold [6] Implications for Retail Investors - The volatility in gold prices poses risks for retail investors, as rapid price changes can lead to significant losses [7] - While some consumers have taken advantage of lower prices to purchase gold jewelry and bars, the resale value of such items often does not match the purchase price, making it a less favorable investment [7] - The fluctuations in gold prices serve as a reminder of the complexities of financial markets, suggesting that investors should seek expert analysis before making investment decisions [7][8]

4月30日，世界黄金协会（WGC）发布的2025年一季度《全球黄金需求趋势报告》显示，在金价创纪录 地突破3000美元/盎司大关的情况下，一季度全球黄金需求总量（包含场外交易）达1206吨，同比增长 1%。 世界黄金协会资深市场分析师Louise Street表示，今年全球市场开局动荡，贸易争端频发、地缘政治局 势持续紧张、全球经济衰退担忧等因素共同导致投资者面临高度不确定的市场环境。在此背景下，黄金 投资需求激增，推动一季度黄金需求总量升至2016年以来同期最高水平。 报告显示，黄金ETF需求复苏，推动一季度黄金投资需求总量同比增长170%，达552吨，创2022年一季 度以来最高季度水平。金价涨势及美国关税政策的不确定性促使投资者纷纷涌向黄金市场，进而推动全 球黄金ETF加速流入，一季度累计流入量达226吨。 "过去10个月，投资者纷纷把目光转向黄金ETF，持续加大配置力度。"Louise Street表示，今年亚洲地区 的黄金ETF流入量仅在4月份就已超过该地区一季度的总和。不过，该板块仍有增长空间，目前全球黄 金ETF持仓量仍比2020年的峰值低10%。 同时，在中国激增的零售投资的带动下，一季度全球 ...

证券分析师 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 (8621)23297818× guozy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 05 月 05 日 金价回调不改长期趋势，铜铝去库 支撑价格 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报20250428-20250502 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数下跌 0.49%，深证成指下跌 0.17%，沪深 300 下跌 0.43%，有色金属（申万）指数下跌 ...

金十数据5月2日讯，国际货币基金组织（IMF）和其他公开数据报告显示，各国央行3月份净买入17吨 黄金，总购买量为35吨，出售量18吨，其中乌兹别克斯坦报告净出售11吨。今年第一季度结束之际，黄 金需求依然强劲。 订阅黄金市场动态 +订阅 全球央行3月净购入黄金17吨 ...

作 者丨易妍君，彭卓 编 辑丨张星，梁明，江佩佩 4月2 2日市场震荡分化，三大指数涨跌不一， 沪指重回3 3 0 0点上方 。截至早盘收盘，沪指涨0 . 3 1%，深成指跌0 . 4 1%，创业板指跌0 . 9 8%。盘 面上热点较为杂乱，个股跌多涨少， 全市场超3 1 0 0只个股下跌 。 | | | 3 0 元 / 克 关 口，续 创 历 史 新 高 。 高盛近期更新了预测，预计到2 0 2 5年年底，现货黄金价格将达到3 7 0 0美元/盎司，而到2 0 2 6年年中将攀升至4 0 0 0美元/盎司。 | | | FRENCE OF | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 年初至今 | | SHFE更全 | 833.48 | 35.02 | 4.39% | 34.26% | | SGE#31+D | 831.02 | 31.42 | 3.93% | 35.16% | | SGE黄金9999 | 831.80 | 27.69 | 3.44% | 35.30% | | 上海金 | 821.75 | 17.91 | 2.2 ...

当前黄金趋势的分析可以从以下几个关键因素展开： 结论：当前黄金处于结构性牛市，短期波动不改长期上行趋势，建议逢低配置对冲宏观不确定性。 短期：地缘冲突与降息预期主导，金价或维持高位震荡，波动性加剧。 中期：若美联储明确转向降息，叠加央行购金及滞胀风险，黄金有望挑战新高。 风险提示：经济软着陆削弱降息预期、美元反弹、地缘局势缓和或引发技术性回调。 1. 宏观经济环境与货币政策 美联储政策预期：市场普遍预期美联储加息周期接近尾声，2024年可能开启降息。近期美国通胀（CPI）数据回落， 但核心通胀仍具粘性，导致降息时点存在不确定性。若降息预期升温，实际利率下降将利好黄金。 美元走势：美元指数（DXY）近期承压，因美联储偏鸽预期及非美经济体（如欧元区）经济韧性。美元走弱通常支 撑以美元计价的黄金。 2. 地缘政治风险 俄乌冲突与中东局势：持续的地缘紧张（如红海航运危机、伊朗核问题）推高避险需求。黄金作为传统避险资产，在 不确定性加剧时吸引资金流入。 3. 实际利率与通胀 美债收益率：10年期美债收益率若因降息预期下行，持有黄金的机会成本降低。当前实际利率（名义利率减通胀预 期）若维持低位或下降，将增强黄金吸引力。 ...