Gold still shining, hitting fresh record highs and pushing above 4,100 an ounce. This comes as President Trump floats more potential tariffs and investors flock to safe havens. But our next guest says the rally it's more about fundamentals than fear.Joining me now, we have David Miller, CIO and senior portfolio manager at Catalyst Funds. David, great to see you as always. So, first big picture, let's let's talk about what's kind of just driving this run in gold.You say, you put it like this, David. You say ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have increased significantly this year, driven by geopolitical risks, central bank purchases, ETF inflows, expectations of US interest rate cuts, and trade tariff concerns [1][2] - As of October 13, the Shanghai gold spot price was quoted at 897.66 yuan per gram, showing a discount of 29.9 yuan per gram compared to the futures price of 927.56 yuan per gram [1] - The gold price has risen by 54% year-to-date, influenced by multiple factors including the announcement of a 100% tariff on US imports from China and export controls on key software by the Trump administration [1] Group 2 - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this month, with another potential cut in December [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to provide new insights into monetary policy during his speech at the NABE annual meeting [2] - Geopolitical discussions regarding a ceasefire plan in Gaza among leaders, including Trump, are being closely monitored by the market [2] Group 3 - Hualian Futures suggests that short-term gold positions should have profit-taking strategies in place, while maintaining a long-term bullish outlook [3] - The recent US fiscal issues and new high tariffs on imports are seen as beneficial for gold, potentially accelerating the Fed's rate-cutting pace [3] - The long-term bullish logic for gold remains intact, driven by a weaker dollar and ongoing global political and economic instability [3]

Group 1 - The international gold price has officially surpassed $4060 per ounce, marking a historical high and a year-to-date increase of 52% from $3200 at the beginning of the year [1][3] - Domestic gold prices have also surged, with Shanghai gold T+D reaching 911.5 yuan per gram, reflecting a daily increase of 4.79%, indicating a stronger performance compared to the international market [3][5] - The market is divided, with some investors profiting significantly, while others are taking risks by buying at high prices, leading to potential losses [7] Group 2 - The surge in gold prices is attributed to three main factors: the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, central banks accumulating gold, and heightened risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions [5][11] - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September, the probability of another 25 basis point cut in October is estimated at 87.7%, leading to a decline in the dollar and an increase in gold demand as a hedge [5][11] - Central banks globally, including China's, have been increasing their gold reserves, with China's holdings reaching 74.06 million ounces and a total of 166 tons purchased by central banks in Q2 [5][11] Group 3 - Future projections for gold prices are optimistic, with Goldman Sachs setting a target of $4900 by the end of next year, supported by ongoing purchases from central banks and institutions [9] - Citic Securities has a more conservative estimate, predicting a potential rise to $4500 in Q1 next year, but warns of possible short-term corrections [9] - Long-term outlook remains positive as long as central banks continue to buy and the dollar remains weak, while short-term monitoring of the $4000 support level is advised [9][11]

Core Insights - The global gold market experienced a significant increase in demand value, reaching a record $132 billion in Q2 2025, despite only a 3% increase in demand volume year-on-year [2] Group 1: Investment Demand - The primary driver of increased gold demand in Q2 was the investment sector, with both institutional investors and retail investors participating actively [3] - Global gold ETFs saw a substantial inflow, with holdings increasing by 170 tons in Q2 and a total of 397 tons in the first half of the year, marking the strongest performance since 2020 [3] - Retail demand for gold bars and coins rose by 11% year-on-year, with China and Europe being the main contributors, particularly China, where demand reached 115 tons, amounting to over 83 billion RMB [3][4] Group 2: Jewelry Demand - In contrast to investment demand, global gold jewelry demand fell by 14% year-on-year to 341 tons, while the monetary value of jewelry consumption increased by 21% to $36 billion [5] - The decline in jewelry volume is attributed to rising gold prices, with the average price in Q2 reaching $3,280 per ounce, a 40% increase year-on-year [6] - Consumers are increasingly viewing jewelry as an investment rather than a luxury item, with trends such as "old for new" exchanges and using jewelry as collateral for loans becoming more common [6] Group 3: Central Bank Purchases - Central banks globally net purchased 166 tons of gold in Q2, a decrease of 33% from the previous quarter, marking the lowest level since 2022 [7] - The slowdown in purchases is attributed to high gold prices, as central banks act rationally and avoid buying at peak prices [7] - Despite the decrease, the current purchasing levels are still 41% higher than the average quarterly levels from 2010 to 2021, indicating a sustained long-term interest in gold [7][8] Group 4: Future Outlook - Key variables to monitor for the gold market in the second half of the year include the performance of the US dollar, technological demand for gold, and potential changes in gold recycling rates [9] - The anticipated weakening of the dollar could lower the opportunity cost of holding gold, potentially attracting more investment [9] - The demand for gold in technology, particularly related to AI, may present new growth opportunities despite a general decline in technological gold usage [9] Group 5: Gold as a Safe Haven - Gold is viewed as a tool for managing uncertainty, serving as a risk diversification asset for institutions, a safety net for central banks, and a stabilizing component for individual investors [11] - The dynamics observed in the gold market reflect broader economic uncertainties and the varying strategies of different market participants in safeguarding their assets [11]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has surged significantly, breaking through key thresholds of $3000 and $4000 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 51%, potentially marking 2025 as the year with the highest price increase since 1979 [1][2]. Price Trends - After an 8-day market closure during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, gold trading resumed on October 9, with prices on the Shanghai Gold Exchange reaching 911.5 yuan per gram and the Shanghai Futures Exchange at 914.3 yuan per gram, both up over 4.5% from September 30 [1]. - Domestic gold prices have also risen, with brands like Chow Tai Fook reporting a price of approximately 1168 yuan per gram, an increase of 45 yuan since the end of September [1][2]. Factors Driving Gold Prices - Multiple factors are contributing to the rise in gold prices, including geopolitical changes, global economic uncertainty, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and increased gold purchases by central banks [3]. - The recent U.S. government shutdown has heightened concerns over dollar credibility and U.S. sovereign debt, further driving up gold prices [3]. Central Bank Activity - The World Gold Council reports that central banks have shown a tendency to buy gold on dips over the past three years, indicating sustained interest in gold despite high prices [4]. - Major Asian central banks are expected to continue increasing their gold reserves over the next 3 to 6 years [4]. Investment Behavior - There is a noticeable divergence in gold consumption, with jewelry sales weakening while investment in gold bars is strong, reflecting a market driven by investment rather than consumption [5]. - The market has seen a higher proportion of out-of-town customers during the holiday period, primarily seeking to allocate assets [6]. Future Outlook - Experts suggest that while there is medium to long-term support for gold prices, the rapid short-term increases may exceed expectations, indicating potential volatility in the market [7]. - Gold is viewed as a long-term asset allocation tool rather than a short-term speculative investment, emphasizing the need for investors to understand the risks associated with different gold investment products [7].

National Developments - The first large-capacity sodium-ion energy storage power station expansion project in China has been put into operation [1] - The all-vanadium flow energy storage system by China Green Development in Qinghai has been successfully shipped [1] Local Developments - A 100,000-ton green methanol project in Shanghai has received dual certification for its entire process [1] - Significant progress has been made in the construction of the wind power project in Qusong, Tibet [1] International Developments - The Guayepo III photovoltaic project in Colombia has achieved full-capacity grid-connected power generation [1] - U.S. sanctions against the Serbian company NIS, controlled by Russia, have impacted the regional energy landscape [1] Gold Market Insights - Gold prices have surged, with New York COMEX futures and London spot prices both surpassing $4,000 per ounce, marking over a 52% increase since the beginning of the year [2][3] - The U.S. government shutdown has heightened domestic political and economic uncertainty, contributing to the rise in gold prices [2][3] - Concerns over fiscal difficulties in developed countries, such as Japan and France, have increased market anxiety regarding global debt and deficit risks [3][4] - Geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have driven funds into safe-haven assets like gold and silver [4] - The global central bank easing cycle and rising debt levels are expected to sustain upward momentum for gold prices [5][6] - Central banks have continued to purchase gold, although the quantity has decreased, with emerging economies leading the increase in gold reserves [5][6] - As of October 1, the gold reserves as a percentage of total reserves for the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and China are 16.04%, 7.76%, and approximately 7.68% respectively [6]

| | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0013700 | | | 2025/10/10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 人业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2512 | AG2512 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点价 格龈踪 | 2025/10/9 | 4028. 99 | 48. 97 | 4048. 10 | 48. 30 | 914. 32 | 11169.00 | 910. 93 | 11129.00 | | (本表数 | | | | | | | | | | | 据来源: | 2025/9/30 | 3855. 84 | 46. 81 | ...

现货金价年初至今累计上涨约51%。 机构预测 高盛预测明年年底金价可能攀升至每盎司4900美元。 近期国际金价持续走高，纽约期金价格已历史性地突破每盎司4000美元大关。这对关注黄金交易的你来 说，无疑是一个重要的市场信号。 下面这个表格汇总了当前黄金市场的主要动态，可以帮你快速了解核心情况： 市场动态 具体表现 价格突破 纽约期金价格突破4000美元/盎司（收盘报4004.4美元）。 年内涨幅 利率下降会降低持有黄金这种非生息资产的机会成本，从而提升其吸引力。 · 避险情绪升温：全球政治经济环境的不确定性，例如美国政府的政策僵局，催生了避险需求。黄金作 为传统的避风港资产，自然受到资金追捧。 · 官方力量支撑：包括中国在内的多国央行已连续多月增持黄金储备，这为金价提供了坚实的基本面支 撑。 · 投资大佬站台：像达里奥（Ray Dalio）这样的顶级投资人也公开看好黄金，认为其相较于美元能提供 更安全的保障，这进一步影响了市场情绪。 核心驱动 美联储降息预期、政治经济环境不确定性、央行购金及黄金ETF资金流入。 当前市场的主要推动力 金价能站上4000美元的高位，是多种因素合力的结果： · 宏观政策预期：市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold and silver markets are experiencing significant upward momentum driven by geopolitical and economic risks, alongside expectations of interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On October 9, the Shanghai gold futures closed at 914.32 yuan per gram, marking a daily increase of 4.82% with a trading volume of 196,141 contracts and an open interest of 251,137 contracts [1]. - The spot gold price in Shanghai was quoted at 910.89 yuan per gram, reflecting a discount of 3.43 yuan per gram compared to the futures price [1]. Group 2: Fundamental Factors - COMEX gold prices have reached new highs, with spot gold surpassing $4,000 per ounce for the first time, driven by rising geopolitical and economic risks [1]. - The market anticipates a 98% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, with a 90% chance of another cut in December [2]. - Central banks globally have been major buyers of gold, with China's central bank increasing its reserves for 11 consecutive months, reaching 74.06 million ounces by September 2025 [2]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - According to Galaxy Futures, while the upward trend in precious metals is expected to continue, there is increasing pressure from profit-taking, and a potential correction may occur once the U.S. government shutdown ends [3]. - The demand for gold jewelry is currently facing significant challenges, and the pace of central bank purchases may slow down, which together account for approximately 70% of global gold demand [3].

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in gold and mining ETFs is attributed to the historical surge in gold prices, driven by various factors including geopolitical tensions and the U.S. government shutdown [9][11][12]. Market Performance - On October 9, the first trading day after the holiday, major stock indices in China saw strong gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.32% to 3933.97 points, marking a 10-year high [1]. - The gold stock ETF closed up 9.47%, the mining ETF up 8.58%, the non-ferrous 60 ETF up 8.44%, and the gold fund ETF up 4.57% [2][4][6][7]. Gold Price Surge - The spot gold price has historically surpassed $4000 per ounce, closing at $4040.42 on October 8, with a cumulative increase of $207.49 per ounce since September 30, reflecting a 5.41% rise [9]. - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, contributing to uncertainty in the labor market, with the ADP reporting a decrease of 32,000 jobs in September, significantly below expectations [9]. Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Israel-Palestine conflict, continue to create uncertainty in the market, which may further drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [10][12]. Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the eleventh consecutive month, reaching 74.06 million ounces by the end of September, indicating a trend towards diversifying international reserves [10]. Future Outlook - The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut, combined with geopolitical uncertainties and a trend towards de-dollarization, is likely to support gold prices in the medium to long term [12][14]. - The copper market is also expected to show resilience due to supply constraints and increasing demand from sectors such as electric vehicles and data centers [13][14]. Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to monitor gold and mining ETFs, as their performance is closely tied to gold prices, which are expected to rise [11][14]. - The mining ETF has a significant exposure to copper and gold, with copper accounting for 28% and gold 15% of its composition, while the non-ferrous 60 ETF has 29% copper and 17% gold [11].