"阿姨，这笔存款到期后可以看看保险产品，长期收益更佳。"近期，类似的对话正在全国各大银行网点 高频上演，成为低利率时代下金融市场的一道鲜明景观。 成交数据印证了这股热度，北京市丰台区一家股份制银行客户经理在推荐分红型保险产品时称："仅去 年12月中旬到今年1月9日，我们北京市分行就成交了50亿元保费，这个数据很罕见。" 双向奔赴 据业界测算，2026年约有32万亿元至50万亿元定期存款集中到期。对银行而言，在存款利率走低的背景 下，如何承接巨量到期资金成为当务之急；对存款人而言，寻找收益率更高且风险较低的替代产品是现 实需求；对保险公司而言，在个险渠道保费增速趋缓的背景下，寻找新的业务增长点势在必行。 于是，三方需求形成了奇特交汇，推动险企银保渠道保费持续增长。记者独家获取的同业交流数据显 示，2025年全年，银保渠道新单规模保费同比增长超15%，增速远超人身险公司原保费8.91%的同比增 速，部分头部险企该保费更是同比大增160%。尤为引人注目的是，保险行业银保渠道新单保费占比已 攀升至约63%，占据了渠道保费的绝对主导地位。 据记者走访调查，今年以来，这一趋势进一步强化，保险重回银行代销"C位"。 存款主 ...

Core Insights - The financial system plays a crucial role in stabilizing expectations, growth, and structure amid economic transformation and cyclical fluctuations [1][12] - There is a clear support for asset prices in China, with positive macroeconomic fiscal and monetary policy directions [4][15] - Chinese assets are currently at relatively low valuations, providing diversification and hedging value for global investors [4][17] Group 1: Asset Pricing and Economic Outlook - The Chinese government continues to implement policies that support consumption and technological innovation, benefiting related sectors [4][15] - The GDP growth forecast for China has been raised to 4.6%, with corporate profit recovery trends continuing [4][16] - The MSCI China index anticipates corporate profit growth of around 8% this year, which is attractive on a global scale [4][16] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - With the decline in RMB fixed deposit rates, there is a lower opportunity cost for moving funds from deposits to investment products [2][13] - The current low interest rate environment encourages funds to flow from low-return assets to riskier assets for higher yields, potentially increasing stock market investments [5][16] - The Chinese stock market is favored due to the ongoing economic transition from traditional infrastructure and exports to consumption and technological innovation [5][17] Group 3: Wealth Management Strategies - In a declining interest rate environment, enhancing yield has become a core issue, leading to increased importance of structured products [6][18] - The distinction between public and private fund products is becoming clearer, with private accounts gaining attention for targeted investment strategies [6][18] - Alternative investments are gaining traction as traditional asset returns are constrained, providing diversification and stability [7][19] Group 4: Gold Investment Perspective - The company maintains a positive outlook on gold, suggesting a portfolio allocation of 7% to 8% for optimal returns [11][24] - Factors driving gold prices include ongoing geopolitical risks, uncertainty in U.S. policy, a weakening dollar, and increased central bank purchases [11][24] - The target prices for gold have been raised to $4,850 and $5,350 per ounce for the next 3 and 12 months, respectively [11][24]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming maturity of a significant amount of deposits in China, estimated at 55 to 60 trillion yuan by 2026, will create a historical peak in the banking system, leading to a potential reallocation of funds and a "re-pricing" wave in deposits [2][14]. Group 1: Deposit Rates and Trends - Major banks are offering low interest rates on large time deposits, with rates around 1.4% to 1.55%, a stark contrast to rates above 5% prior to 2021 [1][13]. - The deposit renewal rate has been approximately 90% in recent years, but a decline to 80% could result in a potential outflow of around 14 trillion yuan, while maintaining the current rate could lead to about 7 trillion yuan [3][15]. Group 2: Impact of Market Conditions - The surge in household savings, exceeding 17 trillion yuan annually during 2022-2023, was driven by market volatility, leading to a significant accumulation of "excess savings" locked in long-term deposits [2][14]. - The reallocation pressure from these long-term deposits will peak in 2026, coinciding with a changing interest rate environment [2][14]. Group 3: Fund Allocation Predictions - It is anticipated that over 90% of maturing deposits will remain in the banking system as new time deposits, but an estimated 2 to 4 trillion yuan may flow into wealth management products and public funds, with 300 to 600 billion yuan expected to enter public funds [3][15]. - The shift in funds is expected to primarily favor low-risk assets, reflecting a cautious approach from residents towards higher-risk investments [5][17]. Group 4: Public Fund Strategies - Public funds are likely to attract maturing deposits through conservative products, particularly money market funds and short-term pure bond funds, which offer liquidity similar to demand deposits [6][18]. - The total scale of public funds is projected to reach 37.71 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, with money market funds comprising a significant portion [6][18]. Group 5: Misconceptions about Deposit Movements - There is a misconception that maturing deposits will lead to significant outflows into the capital market; however, most funds are expected to remain within the banking system for marginal optimization [11][23]. - The release of large deposits does not necessarily correlate with increased consumer spending, as a cautious mindset persists among residents [11][23].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming maturity of a significant amount of deposits in China, estimated at 55 trillion to 60 trillion yuan by 2026, will lead to a major reconfiguration of the banking system and investment landscape, with implications for asset management and financial products [3][16]. Group 1: Deposit Maturity and Market Impact - By 2026, approximately 55 trillion to 60 trillion yuan in deposits will reach maturity, marking a historic peak for the banking system [3][16]. - The surge in household deposits, exceeding 17 trillion yuan annually since 2022, has created about 8 trillion yuan in excess savings, primarily locked in one to three-year term deposits [3][16]. - The reconfiguration pressure from these maturing deposits will intensify as they face a different interest rate environment compared to when they were deposited [3][16]. Group 2: Deposit Reallocation Predictions - If the deposit renewal rate drops to 80%, around 14 trillion yuan may be reallocated, while maintaining a 90% renewal rate would result in about 7 trillion yuan being reallocated [2][15]. - It is anticipated that over 90% of maturing deposits will remain in the banking system as new term deposits, with an estimated 2 trillion to 4 trillion yuan potentially flowing into wealth management products and public funds [4][17]. Group 3: Asset Management Industry Response - The asset management industry is expected to see a structural optimization rather than a massive influx of new capital, as the reallocation primarily targets low-risk assets similar to deposits [6][19]. - Public funds are likely to attract the incoming capital, particularly through conservative risk products such as money market funds and short-term pure bond funds, which are favored for their liquidity and expected returns [20][21]. - Fund companies are focusing on safety and have established mechanisms to manage risk and returns effectively, with a range of products tailored to different risk appetites [21][23]. Group 4: Misconceptions About Deposit Migration - There is a misconception that maturing deposits will lead to significant capital outflows into the market; however, much of the capital will remain within the banking system for marginal optimization [12][25]. - The release of large deposits does not necessarily correlate with a surge in consumer spending, as a cautious mindset persists among residents [12][25]. - Historical data indicates no direct relationship between the maturity of deposits and stock market performance, suggesting that the impact on equity markets may be limited [12][25].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impending maturity of a significant amount of deposits in China, estimated to be between 55 trillion to 60 trillion yuan by 2026, which will lead to a reallocation of funds within the banking system and potentially impact various financial products [3][4]. Group 1: Deposit Rates and Trends - Major banks are offering low interest rates on large deposits, with rates around 1.4% to 1.55%, a stark contrast to rates above 5% seen in 2021 [1][2]. - The shift to lower interest rates has led to a psychological erosion among savers, prompting a significant influx of funds back into fixed-term deposits as a safe haven amid market volatility [1][3]. Group 2: Future Implications of Deposit Maturity - By 2026, a large volume of deposits will mature, creating a potential "repricing" and "reallocation" wave in the banking sector, with estimates suggesting that if the renewal rate drops to 80%, around 14 trillion yuan could be at risk of moving out of banks [3][4]. - The People's Bank of China has indicated that the upcoming maturity of long-term deposits will occur in a very different interest rate environment compared to when they were initially deposited [3][4]. Group 3: Fund Reallocation and Market Impact - It is anticipated that over 90% of maturing deposits will remain within the banking system, but an estimated 2 trillion to 4 trillion yuan may flow into wealth management products and public funds, with public funds expected to attract 300 billion to 600 billion yuan [5][4]. - The reallocation of funds is expected to be more of a structural optimization rather than a massive outflow into higher-risk assets, as residents' risk preferences will dictate their investment choices [7][4]. Group 4: Public Fund Strategies - Public funds that are likely to attract the reallocated deposits include money market funds and short-term pure bond funds, which offer liquidity similar to demand deposits and typically yield better returns than one-year fixed deposits [9][4]. - The "fixed income plus" fund products are being tailored to meet varying risk appetites, with a focus on maintaining low volatility and predictable returns [10][11]. Group 5: Misconceptions About Deposit Movements - There are misconceptions regarding the relationship between maturing deposits and "funds moving out" or entering the capital market, as much of the maturing funds will remain within the banking system for marginal optimization [15][4]. - The release of large deposits does not necessarily correlate with increased consumer spending or stock market performance, as historical data shows no significant relationship between the two [15][4].

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收深度报告 固收深度报告 20260204 不同情境下，会有多少存款"超额"流出？ 2026 年 02 月 04 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 事件 ◼ 近期 A 股市场持续活跃，上证指数成功突破 4000 点整数关口，同时交 易活跃度同步大幅提升，在 1 月 26 日-30 日的一周内，A 股市场日均 成交额达 3.06 万亿元。当前市场在讨论居民风险偏好走强能否为股市 带来增量资金，进而形成"股债跷跷板"效应，且由于居民存款过去几 年迎来了快速增长，为资金流入股市提供了基础。为了评估这一场景发 生的可能性，首先，我们复盘了 2025 年第三季度的存款搬家情况；其 次，对 2026 年定期存款到期量进行测算；最后，复盘了过去 15 年中， 两次人民币存款余额下降时期，资金流向股市或股票型基金的情况。 观点 ◼ 2025 年第三季度是否出现居民存款搬家？ ◼ 2025 年第三季度居民存款新增规模超季节性下行，存在存款搬家现象， 但资金并未直接、单一流向权益市场，而是优先配置于银行理财、货币 市场基金等低风险资产；在权益市场指数站上关键点位后，股票型基金 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the asset management new regulations have shifted residents' financial logic from reliance on "guaranteed returns" to a focus on "risk-return matching" [1] - The current trend of "deposit migration" reflects a passive defensive behavior in response to declining guaranteed deposit yields, with residents reallocating assets from non-standard to standardized capital market tools [2] - The transition from non-standard to standardized assets is driven by the need for diversified investment portfolios, indicating a deepening trend in financial market development [1] Group 2 - Financial institutions are adapting to the trend of low-risk preference by constructing differentiated systems to meet diverse investor needs [3] - Banks are increasing the supply of "fixed income plus" strategies and flexible term products to cater to the demand for stable returns [3] - Public funds and distribution agencies are transforming from "seller-driven sales" to "buyer-focused advisory" to guide long-term rational investment through comprehensive product matrices and account services [3]

2026.02. 03 本文字数：1955，阅读时长大约3.5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 杨倩雯 2025年保险行业成绩单正式出炉。 金融监管总局近日发布2025年保险业经营情况。数据显示，截至2025年末，保险业总资产达到41万亿元；总保费收入突破6万亿元，同比增长7.4%。 其中，人身险保费撑起了增长的"大旗"，增幅接近9%。 "储蓄需求旺盛推动2025年人身险保费景气增长。"国泰海通研究所副所长、非银金融首席分析师刘欣琦团队表示。 储蓄需求推动寿险增长 业内人士分析称，银保渠道近两年的崛起一方面是因为银保合作网点限制放开后渠道扩张赋能新单增长，同时多家曾以个险为主的大型保险公司在个险 渠道深度改革的情况下也将银保渠道重新放在了重要的战略发展位置上；另一方面，银保渠道近期能够更直接地承接"存款搬家"的效应。 根据东吴证券预计，当前"存款搬家"趋势延续，保险产品预定利率仍高于银行存款，相对吸引力仍然明显，预计上市险企2026年开门红表现亮眼，对 寿险全年新单保费增长亦持乐观预期，同时新单中分红险占比预计进一步提升，利好险企负债成本持续改善。 金融监管总局数据显示，2025年人身险公司原保费收入为4.36万亿元 ...

2025年保险行业成绩单正式出炉。 储蓄需求推动寿险增长 金融监管总局数据显示，2025年人身险公司原保费收入为4.36万亿元，同比增长8.9%，成为今年总保费 增长的主要推动力。 "我们预计人身险保费的增长主要为保险储蓄需求旺盛下新单及续期保费共同推动。"刘欣琦团队称。 储蓄需求旺盛主要带来的是人身险中的寿险保费增长。在金融监管总局披露的人身险公司三大产品类型 中，除了寿险保费实现11.4%的增长，意外险及健康险均呈现同比下降的态势。刘欣琦团队认为，这说 明保障类产品的客户需求仍然偏弱。 根据东吴证券数据，2025年第四季度单季人身险公司原保费规模达5191亿元，同比增长0.3%，较第三 季度增速回落24.7个百分点，这主要受预定利率下调后市场需求短期偏弱和筹备开门红影响。不过， 2025年12月单月人身险公司原保费规模又从11月的负增长中转正，同比增长6.0%，达2152亿元。刘欣 琦团队称，12月人身险保费的增速转正预计主要由部分保险公司冲刺年度业务目标所致。 从渠道方面来说，2025年寿险的增长延续近两年的由银保渠道驱动的趋势，多家大型上市险企的银保渠 道增幅均大幅高于个险渠道。以中国太保披露的全年保 ...

"也是为了大力抢抓年末到期资金，现在每新增1万元（存款）就赠送10积分，1个积分相当于1块钱，我们这边一般是给京东e卡。" "天量"到期存款仍将辗转于银行间，一定程度也意味着银行结构间价格"内卷"的暗战难以休止。 位于东部地区县级市的某国有大行分行行长自2025年下半年起就为流失的存款发愁，"一些小银行乱报价，我们3年期大额存单利率只有1.55%了嘛，小银行还在报 （价）1.85%，一流失就是几千万元。" 某股份行东部地区网点的客户经理严昊周末也没歇着，他告诉记者，现在这样的存款活动力度"很难得"，过往在某国有大行以及其他股份银行都"从来没有过这样的 回馈"。 银行揽储压力不减 一段时间以来，"天量存款到期"引发市场广泛关注。在这场大讨论背后，一边是普通储户难觅年化收益率超2%的存款产品；另一边则是基层网点员工在"永恒揽储 压力"加剧下，继续承压前行。 根据市场机构测算，本轮"天量"到期存款规模在50万亿元—75万亿元之间，其中1年期以上定期存款到期规模较2025年初新增约10万亿元。无论整体到期资金体量还 是中长期定存到期资金体量，都让银行体系之外的各类产品"嗅"到资产再配置的潜力，"存款搬家"的讨论也由此 ...