Group 1 - The ongoing "deposit migration" indicates that the worst phase of the economic cycle has passed, as evidenced by the improvement in the enterprise-resident deposit gap and the proportion of new currency to M2 [4][14][15] - Chinese residents do not possess excess savings but rather defensive deposits, with the current deposit migration reflecting a structural change from "excessive defensive deposits" to "normal deposits" rather than a shift from savings to consumption [4][20][27] - The ability of deposit migration to stimulate the real economy hinges on converting savings into investment savings, which can influence corporate cash flow and long-term expectations [4][8][9] Group 2 - The relationship between corporate loans and economic conditions is not straightforward; the presence of corporate funds does not necessarily indicate a positive economic outlook, as loans are just one of many funding sources [5][30][31] - The current stock market presents a favorable configuration value due to clear market stabilization policies, which have reduced stock volatility and increased risk-adjusted returns [5][33] - The ongoing deposit migration is a key factor influencing non-bank liquidity, with the stock market's activity primarily dependent on changes in resident deposit migration [5][33] Group 3 - In August, the financial data showed a continued increase in non-bank deposits, while loans decreased, indicating a shift in the financial landscape [36][41][45] - The social financing scale in August was 2.57 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease, with the stock market financing showing a slight increase [41][42] - The overall M2 growth rate remained stable at 8.8%, with new M1 growth at 6%, indicating a steady financial environment [45]

Market Performance - On September 12, the market experienced a pullback after an initial rise, with all three major indices closing lower [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.52 trillion, an increase of 83.2 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.43%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.09% [1]

行业点评报告 ·银行业 政府债支撑减弱，存款搬家延续 —— 2025 年 8 月金融数据点评 2025 年 9 月 14 日 银行 推荐 维持 分析师 张一纬 ：010-8092-7617 ：zhangyiwei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130519010001 研究助理 袁世麟 ：yuanshilin_yj@chinastock.com.cn 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-09-12 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 银行 沪深300 资料来源：ifind，中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 1 资料来源：中国银河证券研究院 ⚫ 社融转为同比少增：8 月新增社融 2.57 万亿元，同比少增 4630 亿元；截至 8 月末，社融存量同比+8.81%，增速环比-0.17pct。受发行减少与高基数影响， 政府债对社融的支撑减弱。人民币信贷仍少增，居民和企业部门有效信贷需求 仍待修复。M1 继续改善、M2 保持平稳，存款搬家现象延续。 ⚫ 人民币贷款与政府债发行 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the joint action by six government departments to combat online chaos in the automotive industry, launching a three-month special rectification campaign [4][5] - The campaign targets illegal and irregular behaviors by both car companies and unlawful groups, aiming to standardize competition and reduce unethical practices in the industry [5] - Several car companies, including GAC Aion and Zeekr, have expressed their support for the initiative, emphasizing the importance of a clear online environment for sustainable development and user value [5] Group 2 - The new Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul was seen using a Guangzhou-produced Xpeng X9 during his swearing-in ceremony, highlighting the connection between Chinese automotive products and Thai leadership [6] - The increasing trend of Hong Kong residents purchasing domestic electric vehicles in mainland China is noted, driven by improved cross-border accessibility and a shift in consumer behavior towards larger purchases [9] Group 3 - Weichai Chairman Wei Jianjun clarified that the collaboration with Faraday Future on the SuperOne model is an intermediary operation, with no direct involvement from Great Wall Motors, although he sees potential benefits for Chinese car manufacturers [8] - The ongoing internal conflict at Huiyuan Juice has led to significant supply disruptions on major e-commerce platforms due to allegations of unauthorized actions by its major shareholder [14] Group 4 - Starbucks is in the final stages of negotiations to sell its China business, with several private equity firms, including Hillhouse Capital and EQT, as potential buyers, aiming to finalize the deal by the end of October [16]

居民存款和非银存款连续两个月呈现"跷跷板"关系，被市场解读为"存款搬家"，并与近期国内股市行情 联系起来。 从央行最新发布的8月金融数据来看，居民存款连续两个月超季节性下行，非银存款再度多增。8月，居 民存款新增1100亿元，同比少增6000亿元，连续两个月同比负增长。与此同时，8月非银存款新增1.18 万亿元，虽同比回落，但与去年同期相比仍大幅多增。另外，M1（狭义货币）-M2（广义货币）剪刀 差进一步收窄至2021年6月以来的最低值，资金活性增强与"存款搬家"趋势引发市场广泛关注。 资金活性提升 M1-M2剪刀差进一步收窄、非银存款再度多增，是8月金融数据的重要特征。 在货币供应量方面，8月末M2余额331.98万亿元，同比增长8.8%，增速与上月持平，比上年同期高2.5个 百分点；M1余额为111.23万亿元，同比增长6%，比上月加快0.4个百分点，继续维持较高增长。 M1增速回升带动M1-M2剪刀差进一步收窄，8月末该差值为-2.8%，较上月收窄0.4个百分点，是2021年 6月以来的最低值。今年以来M1-M2剪刀差明显收敛，进一步印证更多资金转化为活期存款，有助于投 入消费、投资等经济活动。 在央行 ...

Core Insights - The recent financial data indicates a "deposit migration" trend, with a notable decrease in household deposits and an increase in non-bank deposits, which is linked to the performance of the domestic stock market [1][3][4] Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In August, household deposits decreased by 110 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 600 billion yuan, marking two consecutive months of negative growth [1][3] - Non-bank deposits increased by 1.18 trillion yuan in August, showing a significant year-on-year increase despite a decline compared to the previous month [1][2] - The M1-M2 spread narrowed to -2.8%, the lowest since June 2021, indicating enhanced liquidity and a shift towards more active funds [2][3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The increase in non-bank deposits is interpreted as a signal of residents moving funds into capital markets, particularly as the stock market shows strong performance [6][7] - Analysts suggest that the current trend of "deposit migration" is likely to continue, driven by lower deposit interest rates and a strong equity market [5][7] - The capital market's performance is seen as a key factor attracting funds from bank deposits to non-bank financial institutions [6][7] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Economic Outlook - Despite the increase in non-bank deposits, there remains a cautious attitude among residents regarding future economic conditions, reflected in a strong preference for saving over borrowing [8][9] - The household sector is exhibiting a trend of deleveraging, with a significant reduction in loan growth compared to deposits [8][9] - Government policies aimed at stimulating consumer spending are becoming increasingly important, with measures such as consumption vouchers and interest subsidies for personal loans being implemented [10]

存款"大迁徙"：万亿资金涌向何方？银行又该如何应对？ 近期，金融圈被一个引人注目的现象搅动——我们普通民众的存款，正经历一场前所未有的"大搬家"！许多人发现，将钱存入银行已不再是明智之举，尤其 是那些习惯了定期存款的中年群体，如今也开始重新审视自己的财富配置。毕竟，在通胀的侵蚀下，谁也不想看着辛苦积攒的财富日渐缩水。 然而，中国人民银行最新公布的数据，为这场"存款搬家"潮提供了清晰的注脚，并且其规模和流向，着实超出了许多人的预期。 一减一增之间，资金的流向已然昭然若揭：大量原本属于居民的活期和定期存款，正以惊人的速度转化为非银金融机构的存款。 央行数据揭秘：1.1万亿存款"蒸发"背后的真相 根据中国人民银行最新发布的金融统计数据报告，7月份，我国居民存款呈现出一个令人震惊的变化：居民存款减少了1.11万亿元人民币，与去年同期相 比，多减少了7800亿元。这意味着，仅仅在一个月内，我们老百姓就主动从银行体系中抽离了超过一万亿的资金。 与此同时，一个与之相呼应的现象是，非银行机构存款大幅增加。数据显示，7月份，非银金融机构存款增加了1.65万亿元，同比多增了1.39万亿元。这些非 银存款，主要包括了证券公司、信托 ...

Core Viewpoint - The data from August indicates a continued trend of deposit migration, with a significant increase in non-bank deposits, suggesting a shift of funds from traditional savings to more active investment avenues like the equity market [1][4][5]. Group 1: Deposit Trends - In August, total new deposits reached 2.06 trillion yuan, with only 110 billion yuan coming from new resident deposits, a year-on-year decrease of 600 billion yuan [4]. - Non-bank deposits saw a substantial increase of 1.18 trillion yuan in August, following a record increase of 2.14 trillion yuan in July, marking the highest level since 2015 [5][4]. - The M1 growth rate expanded to 6.0% year-on-year in August, while M2 growth remained at 8.8%, narrowing the M1-M2 spread to 2.8%, the lowest in nearly 51 months [1][3]. Group 2: Market Implications - The acceleration of deposit migration is believed to be driven by a recovering equity market, with analysts suggesting that the stock market may be a primary destination for these funds [5][7]. - The number of new A-share accounts opened in August reached 2.65 million, a month-on-month increase of over 30%, indicating a growing interest from retail investors [8]. - Public fund market data shows a significant increase in equity fund subscriptions, with stock funds seeing a net increase of 108.79 billion units and a growth in scale of 485.54 billion yuan in August [12][13]. Group 3: Fund Market Dynamics - The total public fund market size grew by 571.66 billion yuan in August, alongside a 285.7 billion yuan increase in wealth management products, aligning closely with the 1.18 trillion yuan increase in non-bank deposits [12][13]. - The share of household deposits in the A-share market was 53% in July, indicating potential for further growth as the market recovers [13].

固定收益 | 固定收益点评 2025 年 09 月 14 日 作者 谭逸鸣 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110525050005 tanyiming@tfzq.com 近期报告 1 《固定收益：终端需求仍待提振-高 频跟踪周报 20250913》 2025-09-13 2 《固定收益：流动性跟踪-下周资金 再迎"考验"》 2025-09-13 3 《固定收益：固收点评-社融增速见 顶？》 2025-09-13 固收周度点评 证券研究报告 风浪未平，留一份谨慎 1、本周债市行情回顾：利率再"寻顶" 前半周，债市悲观情绪在基金费率调整的催化之下再度蔓延，以及股债联 动"不对称"、债市"急跌慢涨"的现象仍在延续，前期被认为是 10Y 期国 债利率阶段性顶部的 1.80%点位被顺畅突破。后半周，债市对央行重启买债 的期待升温，利率有所修复。 2、跌势为何加深？承接力量难抵交易盘抛压 刘昱云 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110525070010 liuyuyun@tfzq.com 唐海清 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110517030002 tanghaiqing@tfzq.com 藏多 分析师 SA ...

华创证券在最新研报中分析指出，居民存款增长明显偏离季节性表现，可能受到多方面因素影响。一方面，2023 年是定期存款增长的"大年"，当前可能正处于定期存款集中到期的高峰阶段；另一方面，近期权益市场情绪回 暖、股指有所修复，可能推动部分居民将存款转移至证券账户，形成"存款搬家"现象，具体体现为非银机构存款 增加及证券保证金类活期资金上升。 该机构进一步表示，居民储蓄意愿的变化与资本市场表现密切相关。随着政策持续发力、市场信心逐步修复，A 股市场8月以来显现企稳迹象，吸引部分资金从银行体系流向投资市场。此外，理财、基金等产品的收益率回暖也 可能对居民资产配置行为产生影响。 业内人士认为，当前金融数据反映出居民资产配置正逐步多元化，不再过度集中于定期存款，而是根据市场行情 灵活调整。这一变化既有助于提升资金使用效率、促进直接融资发展，也对金融机构负债结构管理和产品创新提 出了新的要求。 尽管住户存款增速阶段性放缓，但整体金融体系流动性保持合理充裕。下一步，市场将关注"存款搬家"现象的持 续性以及对广义货币供应量M2和银行负债成本的影响。在当前复杂的内外部经济环境下，货币政策的精准有效和 资本市场的健康运行将成为平衡 ...