一、现货黄金基本面： 2025 年 6 月中旬，以色列与伊朗之间爆发了近年来最为严重的军事冲突，对现货黄金的基本面产生了多方面影响，主要体现在以下几个方面： ①避险需求激增：中东地区局势向来是全球地缘政治的敏感地带，此次以伊冲突急剧升级，引发了市场对地缘政治风险的高度担忧。投资者的避险情绪被极 大激发，纷纷将黄金作为避险资产，促使黄金需求上升，推动现货黄金价格强势突破 3400 美元大关，创下历史最高的周收盘价。 投资组合需求调整：在中东局势紧张的背景下，全球金融市场不确定性增加，股票、债券等传统资产的风险溢价上升。 ③市场情绪方面：中东局势的不确定性使得市场弥漫着谨慎和担忧的情绪。这种情绪会促使投资者更加关注黄金的避险属性，从而持续为黄金价格提供支 撑。 只要局势得不到明显缓和，市场对黄金的看多情绪就会延续，推动现货黄金价格保持在高位或者继续上涨。 不过，一旦有任何关于冲突缓和的迹象出现，市场情绪可能会迅速转向，导致黄金价格面临回调压力。 例如，若传出双方进行和谈的消息，投资者的避险情绪会立刻降温，对现货黄金的需求也会相应减少，进而引发价格下跌。 ④宏观经济方面：中东局势紧张可能引发全球经济的连锁反应。 投 ...

2024年3月，红海海域的晨雾中，一艘挂着中国国旗的VLCC（超大型油轮）正缓缓驶过曼德海峡。驾驶舱里，船长老陈盯着雷达屏上的航道标识，手指无 意识地摩挲着桌上的《红海航运风险地图》——这张图上，红色标记从也门海岸线一直延伸到索马里海域，那是胡塞武装近期频繁活动的区域。 "这趟跑下来，保费比半年前涨了40%。"老陈叹了口气，"但没办法，中东的油、南美的气、非洲的凝析油，都得往国内运。" 老陈的油轮，载着中国石油海外资产的一个缩影：从伊拉克鲁迈拉油田的原油，到哈萨克斯坦PK油田的天然气，再到巴西布兹奥斯盐下油田的轻质油，中 国石油在海外的油气权益产量已占其总产量的1/3，海外资产规模超万亿元。但在地缘冲突频发的今天，这些分布在60多个国家的油气田、管道、炼厂，正 像散落在棋盘上的棋子，每一步都可能被国际局势的"黑天鹅"搅动。 中国石油的海外资产，如何在这场全球地缘博弈中"避险"？这不是简单的"撤资"或"搬家"，而是一场涉及战略布局、本地化运营、技术创新的系统性工程。 01 海外资产的"全景图"：中国石油的全球能源拼图 要理解中国石油的"避险"逻辑，首先得看清它的海外资产版图。这张版图，不是随机的"撒胡椒面"，而 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - Millennium Management is set to be valued at $14 billion as it discusses selling 10% to 15% of its equity in partnership with Petershill Partners [1] - The transaction aims to attract strategic investors, including major contributors to Millennium's funds, positioning it among the highest-valued hedge fund management companies globally [1] - Millennium operates over 320 investment teams under a strict risk framework, similar to other multi-strategy giants like Citadel and Point72 [1] Group 2: Valuation Logic - The $14 billion valuation has sparked a reevaluation of hedge fund valuation logic, traditionally based on management fees and performance incentives [2] - Millennium's revised fee structure, particularly the 1% minimum fee, stabilizes its revenue stream, supporting its high valuation [2] - Despite the high valuation, some private equity advisors argue that even with long-term capital locks, Millennium's management fee multiples are generally lower than those of established private equity firms [2] Group 3: Institutional Preparation - Founder Izzy Englander is preparing for a "post-Englander era" by institutionalizing the company, marking a shift from sole ownership to shared ownership among the core team [3] - The minority stake sale is part of a dual strategy to attract stable external investors and incentivize top talent through equity distribution among senior management [3] - Englander has already implemented measures to solidify the company's capital base and strengthen leadership by recruiting senior management from firms like Goldman Sachs [3] Group 4: Fee Structure and Strategic Partnerships - Millennium has introduced a new fee model requiring investors to pay a minimum fee of around 1% of assets or 20% of investment returns, aligning its revenue structure closer to stable management fees [5] - The company is also in discussions with BlackRock for potential strategic collaboration, which may include a small equity acquisition [5]

5月，彭博中国综合指数（衡量中国债券市场的旗舰指数）录得回报为-0.01%，年至今回报为 0.41%。在此期间，其30天波动率呈下降趋势。 中国国债和政策性银行债指数5月录得-0.14%的回报。以本币计价，人民币在全球综合指数内 27种货币中的排名跌至第25位，年至今回报率为0.28%。 以美元计价，其年至今回报率为 1.72%，排至末位。 彭博是全球首家将中国债券纳入全球主流指数的指数提供商。彭博中国固定收益指数系 列作为衡量中国债券市场的旗舰指数，为全球投资者提供了清晰且独特视角和观察。 《彭博中国固定收益指数月报》 由彭博指数团队和彭博行业研究分析师共同撰写，为 您呈现月度指数回顾、短期宏观经济和债市展望。 5月关键洞察 彭博中国固定 收益指数月报 2025年5月 彭博指数团队与彭博行业研究联合发布 扫码阅读本期全文，您还将了解： 扫码阅读完整报告 点击 "阅读原文" ，让彭博为您演示终端更多内容。 亚洲新兴市场高收益美元债指数利差已从4月5.63%的峰值收窄近130个基点。这推动 该指数5月至今上涨1.42%，而投资级美元债指数则下跌0.56%。 短久期帮助高收益 债券规避了美债市场的波动，但我们预计 ...

本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 1、病还没好，加大药量？宏观经济和政策对冲，出现了新线索 中东以色列和伊朗的冲突尚未结束，但全球资本市场对其的反应似乎已经告一段落。今天，全球几大类 资产基本都呈现恢复性的波动，包括内地市场。我们在昨天的解读中也提到过，中东冲突打乱了大类资 产恢复的方向，但这种扰动很可能是一次性的短期冲击。同时，我们也要注意，在这种冲击之后，各类 资产可能会出现反方向的运行和恢复。今天市场的方向基本与我们昨天所聊的相符。一起看一下最新的 消息，来前瞻一下这种修复动能的持续性。 首先，从国内市场的三大逻辑线来看。第一个逻辑线是宏观经济指标的冷暖；第二个是政策上的线索是 否有增量；第三个是资金层面上的动向是否有加仓。前两个逻辑线，即宏观经济和政策，在最近这两天 是交叉运行且深度绑定的。我们一起来聊一聊。 从宏观经济来看，今天有一些新发布的数据。其中，消费数据表现不错，实现了过去近两年时间里最大 的涨幅。社会消费品零售总额的涨幅达到了6.4%，这给市场带来了一点惊喜。但我们认为，这个惊喜 主要体现在一些服务性消费或新消费领域，而不是传统消费领域。所以，今天市场上的表现非常有意 思。传统消费 ...

晚上好呀，本周开始，每周一我会和大家回顾上周市场的周度情况，同时分享小雪三分法实盘的表现和复盘。 01 什么是小雪三分法实盘账户？ 和大家简单介绍下小雪实盘的创建初心和背景，小雪作为一个金融行业的打工人，在每天的工作中，看过太多投资者因为追涨杀跌而亏损的痛心 案例，所以我也一直在思考： 有没有一种更科学理性、更可持续的投资方式，让我们离投资复利的真相更近一些？ 今年我即将步入三十岁，决定用行动来寻找答案。我在2024年10月28日创建了自己的三分法实盘账户。根据我的风险偏好-能承受的最大亏 损、预计年化收益、可投时长，匹配出来的是【成长型方案】，债股商的比例为30%：60%：10%，这也是我基于自身情况做的一个实践。 在具体的配置上，我遵循资产分散、市场分散、时间分散。首先在大类资产上，我按照方案的提示比例，做了股债商的均衡配置。 其中偏债方向，我国经济复苏和政策空间仍需要有较低的利率水平支持，因此大部分债券仍然选择中债，叠加美元债获取美国的高票息收益和美 联储降息收益。这部分债券资产也是整个配置账户中的压舱石，在极端行情下，会发挥一定的抗波动效应。 在偏股方向，目前国内海外的资产配置比例约5:1，海外部分选 ...

Core Insights - The 19th National Futures (Options) Real Trading Competition has attracted 145,900 participants, with significant market fluctuations due to various external events [1][3] - The competition has seen a notable interest in options trading, with top performers utilizing strategies that capitalize on geopolitical events and market volatility [2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The competition period has been marked by significant events such as tariff disruptions, OPEC+ production adjustments, and geopolitical crises in the Middle East, leading to increased trading difficulty for participants [1] - As of June 13, the most popular trading products among participants were glass, soda ash, and soybean meal, indicating a focus on specific commodities [1] Group 2: Trading Strategies - Professional traders have been employing subjective CTA strategies to capture "crisis alpha," particularly in oil and gold options, achieving returns exceeding 30% [2] - Participants with industry backgrounds have adjusted their strategies in response to sudden events, such as increasing fuel oil hedging positions following attacks on Iranian oil facilities [2] Group 3: Competition Statistics - As of June 13, the total number of accounts in the competition reached 145,900, with total funds amounting to 46.84 billion yuan [3] - The "Futures Star Competition" reported a total of 33,234 accounts in the options category, with top trading firms including Huishang Futures and Citic Futures [4] Group 4: Awards and Recognition - The "Same Boat Cup" competition had 32,381 accounts, with top performers in various commodity groups recognized for their achievements [5] - The risk control special award had 1,098 accounts, with "Happy Old Playful" leading the rankings [6]

Liu年仅30出头，曾在Marshall Wace因精准押注科技股脱颖而出，引发Citadel、Millennium、Balyasny等顶级对冲基金激烈哄抢，最终是Steve Cohen成功将 其纳入麾下。一位知情人士形容这场挖人大战"就像在拍卖会上竞价名画"。 这场争夺战背后，是华尔街崛对"顶级赚钱机器"的激烈争夺。在多策略对冲基金迅猛崛起的背景下，对冲基金界现在最稀缺的不再是资金，而是能持续赚钱的 脑子。 本文是根据《华尔街日报》报道内容整理。 "能持续赚钱的脑子"，才是华尔街最贵的资产 对冲基金争抢顶级交易员的方式很直接，不断抬高薪酬上限。一些明星投资经理年薪可达数亿美元，虽他们不为公众所熟知，却在业内堪称"价比黄金"的稀缺 资源，薪酬水平可与华尔街CEO比肩。 这场抢人大战的背后，是多策略对冲基金崛起所带来的人才饥渴。这类基金结构类似蜂巢，由多个半独立团队组成，各自独立操盘， 且对交易员的要求远高于 传统基金 。 传统对冲基金靠长期持仓、扛波动获取回报，而多策略基金强调高频次、短周期、稳定盈利。持仓周期通常仅几周或几个月，容错率极低，要求操盘手像"稳 定输出的机器"。更理想的交易员还需具备"带兵打仗" ...

Group 1 - The core of the article discusses a fierce competition among hedge funds to recruit top traders, likening it to a sports signing event, with significant financial incentives involved [1][2] - Billionaire Steve Cohen of Point72 successfully signed young trader Kevin Liu with a five-year contract worth $100 million, highlighting the lengths to which firms will go to secure talent [1][2] - The rise of multi-strategy hedge funds has created a talent shortage, making skilled traders the most valuable asset in the industry, with some earning salaries comparable to Wall Street CEOs [2][6] Group 2 - Multi-strategy hedge funds operate with a structure that requires traders to deliver consistent short-term profits, leading to high-pressure environments and high turnover rates [5][6] - The compensation for top traders is often funded by clients, with operational costs significantly higher than traditional hedge funds, raising questions about the sustainability of such high salaries [6][7] - Despite concerns over costs, clients continue to tolerate high fees due to strong performance, with firms like Citadel and Millennium reporting annualized returns of approximately 22% and 13% respectively [7][8] Group 3 - Many top traders prefer joining multi-strategy hedge funds over starting their own firms due to the support these platforms provide in non-investment areas, allowing them to focus on trading [8] - Some traders, like Peter Goodwin, have negotiated for greater autonomy within these firms, combining the benefits of high compensation with the freedom to manage their own funds [8]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is expected to maintain a narrow fluctuation pattern in the short term, with potential for a trend upward over the year [1][5]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment framework focuses on credit bonds as the base and enhances returns through interest rate bond trading, aligning with the evolving market ecology post-asset management regulations [2]. - The strategy of "buying on dips and selling on rises" is recommended for short-term operations, while maintaining a long-term perspective on credit bond investments [5]. - The introduction of government bond futures for risk hedging in new fund contracts reflects a systematic optimization of investment strategies in response to market changes [4]. Group 2: Risk Management - A rigorous risk management strategy is employed, emphasizing extreme diversification in credit bond investments to mitigate potential credit risks [3]. - The use of long-duration interest rate bonds allows for effective duration management, with a focus on quick trading to capitalize on market fluctuations [3]. - Traditional risk avoidance measures have been strengthened, including lowering product duration and incorporating credit risk mitigation clauses [4]. Group 3: Market Environment - The short bond market faced pressure in the first quarter, with a reported annualized yield of -2.89% for the two-year government bond futures [5]. - Despite recent monetary easing measures, the market's expectations for further rate cuts remain cautious, potentially creating short-term opportunities if cuts are realized [5]. - The bond market's inherent bullish nature allows for the accumulation of coupon income during holding periods, suggesting a strategy of maintaining positions while waiting for favorable conditions [5].