Core Viewpoint - The resource sector is currently in a "super cycle 2.0," driven by de-globalization, supply chain disruptions, and structural changes led by AI and energy transitions, rather than just global demand expansion [4][6][31]. Group 1: Investment Opportunities - The resource sector is not solely driven by short-term sentiment but is experiencing a prolonged price boom, with significant growth in the metals sector, particularly precious metals like gold and silver [4][6][31]. - Fund managers highlight that the current investment opportunities may be more concentrated in structural areas within the sector, particularly in precious and small metals, which are driven by both safety logic and industrial demand [4][5][12]. - The expected performance of metals in 2026 includes a focus on copper, gold, aluminum, lithium carbonate, and tungsten, with a favorable outlook due to external demand and new industrial trends [12][34][35]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The current market is characterized by a shift towards safety in resource allocation, with a growing emphasis on the strategic value of resource assets amid geopolitical tensions and supply chain security concerns [18][40][42]. - Fund managers note that the resource sector is experiencing a re-evaluation phase, with many domestic metal companies having lower valuations compared to their international counterparts, despite similar growth potential [33][41]. - The investment logic has shifted from merely inflation-driven strategies to a focus on securing resources as a hedge against geopolitical risks and supply disruptions [20][42]. Group 3: Risks and Challenges - The resource sector faces risks related to the significant price increases seen in certain sub-sectors over the past year, which may lead to a decline in the risk-reward ratio for investors [21][23]. - There is a caution regarding the potential volatility in industrial metals like copper and aluminum, which require close monitoring of supply-demand dynamics [5][27][30]. - The overall economic uncertainty and potential for a global recession could impact demand for industrial metals, posing a risk to the current bullish outlook [22][23].

Core Viewpoint - The resource sector is currently in the "Super Cycle 2.0" phase, driven by de-globalization, supply chain restructuring, and central banks' continued gold purchases, indicating that the price boom is not solely driven by short-term sentiment [4][7][17]. Group 1: Current Market Dynamics - The resource sector is experiencing significant price increases, with the non-ferrous metals sector rising nearly 90% in 2025 and gold and silver prices reaching historical highs in early 2026 [2]. - Fund managers believe that the current resource sector is not merely a short-term emotional response but is part of a longer-term price cycle that is far from over [4][9][10]. - The ongoing cycle is characterized by a combination of macroeconomic factors, including inflation improvement and a weak dollar credit environment, which are favorable for commodities [10][19]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Fund managers suggest that investors should focus on structural opportunities within the sector, particularly in precious metals and small metals, which are driven by both safety logic and industrial demand [4][20]. - The five most promising investment opportunities for 2026 include copper, gold, aluminum, lithium carbonate, and small metals like tungsten, driven by new demand from sectors such as energy storage and AI infrastructure [20][21]. - The current market is seen as a re-evaluation cycle, with the overall PE levels of the sector remaining acceptable and the high profitability of non-ferrous metals indicating strong growth potential [19][28]. Group 3: Risks and Challenges - The resource sector faces risks due to significant price increases in certain sub-sectors over the past year, leading to a decline in the risk-reward ratio for investments [13][34]. - There is a need to monitor potential volatility in commodity prices, especially as many non-ferrous metals have reached historical highs, which could lead to increased market fluctuations [35][36]. - The sector's performance may be impacted by global macroeconomic uncertainties, including potential recessions in major economies, which could reverse the current upward trends in industrial metal demand [36][37].

● 本报记者 李梦扬 根据同花顺iFinD数据，截至1月22日记者发稿时，按照申万一级行业划分，已有逾50家生物医药企业披 露2025年业绩预告，27家预喜，预喜比例近五成。值得关注的是，多家CXO（医药外包服务，包括 CDMO和CRO）公司业绩表现亮眼。其中，CXO行业龙头药明康德预计2025年实现营业收入约454.56亿 元，同比增长约15.84%；实现归母净利润约191.51亿元，同比增长约102.65%。 业内人士表示，随着全球投融资逐步恢复、国内对创新药行业的持续支持以及新药研发逐步回暖， CXO产业趋势向好。2026年，随着行业结构性改革深化、政策与融资环境持续优化，中国医药产业提 质升级趋势明确，行业将迈向高质量发展新阶段。 27家生物医药公司业绩预喜 在已披露业绩预告的超50家生物医药公司中，27家预喜，其中，18家预增，5家略增，4家扭亏。从归母 净利润金额看，药明康德预计2025年实现归母净利润191.51亿元，位居第一；以岭药业、甘李药业、兴 齐眼药、华邦健康等公司居前，预计归母净利润下限均超5亿元。 剔除扭亏影响，从归母净利润同比变动下限看，上海谊众、康辰药业、特一药业、昭衍新药等多家 ...

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical sector experienced a collective pullback today, with various indices showing declines, while there is still significant capital inflow into innovative drug ETFs, indicating a potential recovery in demand for CRO and CDMO services [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index fell by 1.4% [1]. - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical and Health Comprehensive Index and the CSI Innovative Drug Industry Index both decreased by 1.1% [1]. - The CSI Biotechnology Theme Index dropped by 0.8%, and the CSI 300 Pharmaceutical and Health Index declined by 0.7% [1]. - Despite the overall market decline, the E Fund Innovative Drug ETF (159316) saw a net subscription of over 20 million units throughout the day [1]. Group 2: Industry Outlook - According to Zhongtai Securities, multiple factors are driving a gradual recovery in demand for CRO and CDMO services within the pharmaceutical sector [1]. - The past three years have seen a continuous clearing of supply, suggesting that the sector may experience a "Davis Double Play" with simultaneous improvements in profitability and valuation [1].

Group 1 - The chemical sector continues to show strong performance, with the Chemical ETF (516020) experiencing a price increase of over 1.5%, reaching a nearly three-year high [1] - As of January 21, the Chemical ETF (516020) has seen a net subscription of over 870 million yuan in the past five days and nearly 1.2 billion yuan in the last ten days [1] - Analysts suggest that the "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes expanding domestic demand, which will drive growth in chemical product demand, especially with the onset of a U.S. interest rate cut cycle [1] Group 2 - The Chemical ETF (516020) and its linked fund (012537) track the CSI segmented chemical industry theme index, with nearly 50% of its holdings concentrated in large-cap leading stocks such as Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Industry [2] - The remaining 50% of the portfolio includes leading stocks in sub-sectors like phosphate fertilizers, fluorine chemicals, and nitrogen fertilizers, allowing for comprehensive investment opportunities in the chemical sector [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights significant portfolio adjustments by well-known fund managers in anticipation of growth in sectors like AI, non-ferrous metals, and lithium battery materials for 2026 [1][4] - Fund manager Fu Pengbo indicates that high-growth sectors such as AI and non-ferrous metals will see substantial growth, while manager Li Xiaoxing emphasizes that AI remains the main theme of global technological innovation [1][7] - Manager Yang Jinjing advocates for avoiding currently popular but overvalued sectors, focusing instead on blue-chip stocks that are expected to show long-term performance turning points [1][5] Group 2 - In the fourth quarter of 2025, the top ten holdings of the Ruiyuan Growth Value Fund managed by Fu Pengbo and Zhu Lin saw minor changes, with Maiwei Co. replacing China Mobile, and significant adjustments in holdings of companies like Tencent and Alibaba [2] - The Silver华心怡 Fund, managed by Li Xiaoxing and Zhang Ping, underwent substantial adjustments, with new entries including Tencent, Alibaba, and Meituan, while exiting positions in China Mobile and HSBC [2] - The Yongying Ruixin Fund, managed by Gao Nan, also made notable adjustments, adding companies like WISCO and Haier, while reducing positions in companies like Zhongji Xuchuang [3] Group 3 - Fu Pengbo and Zhu Lin plan to reduce investments in companies with weak fundamentals and increase holdings in data center-related companies based on industry trends and individual stock research [2][4] - Gao Nan focuses on company growth potential and performance realization, aiming for a diversified portfolio while capturing growth opportunities [4] - Yang Jinjing emphasizes a contrarian investment approach, seeking undervalued stocks and avoiding following irrational market trends [4][5] Group 4 - Li Xiaoxing believes that the domestic equity market presents more opportunities than risks, with AI continuing to drive technological innovation and domestic internet giants expected to maintain stable growth [7][8] - The domestic consumption sector, which underperformed in 2025, is viewed as having high potential, with many quality consumer stocks offering attractive dividend yields [8] - Long-term prospects for the domestic innovative pharmaceutical sector are positive, with a focus on companies with data catalysts and explosive performance potential [8]

1月21日，A股硬科技板块成为主线，GPU、先进封装、半导体等赛道涨幅居前。科创50ETF富国 （588940）一度上涨4.07%，截至发稿的最新涨幅达3.15%。标的指数成分股中，龙芯中科20CM涨停， 资金热情高涨。 研究机构指出，半导体行业库存周期已进入健康状态，叠加AI创新周期，板块有望迎来"戴维斯双击"。 在此背景下，科创50ETF富国（588940）作为紧密跟踪上证科创板50成份指数的投资工具，聚焦半导 体、AI、高端制造等硬科技龙头，其中半导体行业权重占比较高，有望显著受益于本轮半导体景气周 期，场外投资者可通过科创50ETF富国联接（A类023055/C类023056）进行便捷布局。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 本轮半导体产业链走强的核心驱动力，来自全球AI需求爆发和行业基本面的实质性改善。行业数据显 示，2025年内全球半导体行业呈现结构性增长，公司产能利用率提升，营业收入增幅上升，特别是中高 端产品营业收入明显增加，半导体产业链投资收益也增厚了业绩。同时，在政策扶持与市场需求双重驱 动下，国内厂商的市场份额稳步提升。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The chemical sector is currently experiencing a critical turning point in its cycle of recovery and growth upgrade, with a projected profit cycle, inventory cycle, capacity cycle, supply status, demand status, and chip status coupling in the second half of 2025, presenting investment opportunities in the industry [1][6] - The chemical industry is benefiting from emerging industries such as new energy vehicles, energy storage, and AI, with global GDP growth driving exports, although supply is constrained by policy assessments on new capacity related to carbon neutrality [1][10] Key Insights and Arguments - Investment strategies should focus on "anti-fragile" assets such as gold, coal, and oil transportation to enhance risk resistance during the current Kondratiev depression period, characterized by declining stability in the dominant currency system and a burgeoning gold bull market [1][5] - The fine chemicals sector is showing positive signals at the EPS level, indicating potential for a "Davis Double Play," while the agricultural chemicals sector has significant EPS elasticity, highlighting investment opportunities driven by supply-demand gaps [1][6] - The transition from low-price competition to pursuing efficiency and value in the chemical industry is essential, relying on policy-driven supply-side reforms to improve supply-demand relationships [3][21] Investment Strategy - The investment philosophy emphasizes value investing with a focus on safety margins, utilizing a bottom-up approach and cyclical timing to identify opportunities [4][6] - The portfolio management strategy includes a concentrated selection of high-potential stocks, particularly in the fine chemicals and agricultural chemicals sectors, with a focus on companies that can leverage cyclical earnings effectively [7][8] - The anticipated long-cycle elasticity opportunity in the chemical industry may surpass previous cycles, driven by global demand diversification and the emergence of new sectors [9][10] Policy and Market Dynamics - National policies aimed at upgrading traditional manufacturing and promoting low-carbon development will restrict new capacity expansion in the chemical industry, leading to the exit of inefficient old capacities and stabilizing the price system in the long term [12][22] - The implementation of quota systems in specific sectors, such as refrigerants, has successfully increased prices and profitability for companies, demonstrating the effectiveness of controlled production to enhance industry profitability [23] Future Outlook - From 2026 onwards, certain sub-industries or investment targets are expected to stand out, with a shift in focus from traditional safe-haven assets to equities potentially offering better returns [20] - The chemical industry is poised for new development opportunities driven by supply-demand improvements, with a strong emphasis on policy-driven changes and corporate self-discipline [22][24]

Market Overview - The market temperature gauge indicates a 75% level, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index showing historical P/E ratios at 99.71%, 93.7%, and 50.02% respectively as of January 20, 2026 [1][13] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors on January 20, 2026, included Real Estate (+1.74%), Oil & Petrochemicals (+1.71%), and Building Materials (+1.55%), while the worst performers were Computer (-3.23%), Defense & Military Industry (-2.87%), and Communication (-1.94%) [2][13] Capital Flow - The sectors with the highest net inflows were Real Estate (¥471 million), Food & Beverage (¥218 million), and Retail (¥203 million). Conversely, the sectors with the largest outflows included Power Equipment (-¥14.402 billion), Electronics (-¥11.803 billion), and Communication (-¥10.812 billion) [2][13] ETF Performance - The Chemical ETF (516020) rose by 1.27%, reaching a new high since August 2022, reflecting a strong performance in the chemical sector [4][17] - The Bank ETF (512800) increased by 0.77%, with historical data indicating an 80% success rate for absolute and excess returns in the banking sector prior to the Spring Festival [6][17] Fund Performance - The following ETFs showed notable performance: - Real Estate ETF: 3.22% increase, 6-month performance of 4.73% [2][15] - A500 Dividend Low Volatility ETF: 1.32% increase, 6-month performance of 0.50% [2][15] - 800 Dividend Low Volatility ETF: 1.27% increase, 6-month performance of -0.75% [2][15] - Chemical ETF: 1.27% increase, 6-month performance of 52.31% [2][15] - 300 Cash Flow ETF: 1.13% increase, 6-month performance of 15.76% [2][15]

Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing significant capital inflow, with the Chemical ETF (516020) seeing over 580 million yuan in net inflows in the past five days, 1.14 billion yuan in the past ten days, and 1.43 billion yuan in the past twenty days, leading to a fund size surpassing 5 billion yuan, reaching 5.319 billion yuan [1] - On January 20, the chemical sector slightly corrected alongside the broader market, with the Chemical ETF (516020) experiencing a minor decline of 0.53% after hitting a new high, indicating that funds may be accumulating during the dip [1] - Institutions predict negative growth in capital expenditure for the chemical industry in 2024, with supply expected to contract due to the "anti-involution" trend and accelerated elimination of outdated overseas capacity, while domestic demand is anticipated to grow due to policy support and the initiation of a U.S. interest rate cut cycle [1] Group 2 - According to GF Securities, the chemical industry typically follows a five-year cycle characterized by four stages: "profit upturn - capacity expansion - profit bottoming - capacity clearance/improved demand expectations" [2] - The Chemical ETF (516020) and its linked fund (012537) track the CSI segmented chemical industry theme index, with nearly 50% of the portfolio concentrated in large-cap leading stocks such as Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Industry, while the remaining 50% covers leading stocks in sub-sectors like phosphate fertilizers, fluorine chemicals, and nitrogen fertilizers [2] - The ongoing global technological revolution is expected to accelerate, presenting new opportunities in material transformation, which aligns with the positive outlook for the chemical sector during the "Fifteen Five" planning period [2]