2月9日，金融界财经早餐，宏观政策、资本市场、行业板块、公司个股资讯一览： 一、今日财经资讯 1、李强主持召开国务院常务会议，研究促进有效投资政策措施。会议指出，促进有效投资对于稳定经 济增长、增强发展后劲具有重要作用。要创新完善政策措施，加力提效用好中央预算内投资、超长期特 别国债、地方政府专项债券等资金和新型政策性金融工具。要结合制定实施"十五五"规划，着眼于长远 发展需要和构筑未来竞争优势，在基础设施、城市更新、公共服务、新兴产业和未来产业等重点领域， 深入谋划推动一批重大项目、重大工程。要更好发挥央国企扩投资作用，加大力度支持民间投资发展， 形成促进有效投资的合力。 2、中国人民银行等八部门发布关于进一步防范和处置虚拟货币等相关风险的通知。通知指出，虚拟货 币不具有与法定货币等同的法律地位。比特币、以太币、泰达币等虚拟货币具有非货币当局发行等主要 特点，不具有法偿性，不应且不能作为货币在市场上流通使用。 3、国家外汇管理局2月7日发布的最新统计数据显示，2026年1月末，中国官方黄金储备为7419万盎司， 较2025年12月末增加4万盎司。目前，中国央行已连续15个月增持黄金。截至2026年1月末，我 ...

机构认为，当前A股市场趋势下，"轻仓持股过节"是一种审慎且符合历史规律的合理策略。 【财经日历】 澜起科技在港交所挂牌上市 新股申购：通宝光电 ►►2月6日，国务院总理李强主持召开国务院常务会议。会议指出，促进有效投资对于稳定经济增长、增强发展后劲具有重要作用。要创新完善政策措施， 加力提效用好中央预算内投资、超长期特别国债、地方政府专项债券等资金和新型政策性金融工具。要结合制定实施"十五五"规划，着眼于长远发展需要和 构筑未来竞争优势，在基础设施、城市更新、公共服务、新兴产业和未来产业等重点领域，深入谋划推动一批重大项目、重大工程。要更好发挥央国企扩投 资作用，加大力度支持民间投资发展，形成促进有效投资的合力。 ►►央行公告，中国2026年1月末黄金储备报7419万盎司，2025年12月末为7415万盎司，为连续第15个月增持黄金。 ►►中国人民银行等八部门发布关于进一步防范和处置虚拟货币等相关风险的通知。《通知》重申境内对虚拟货币坚持禁止性政策，明确虚拟货币不具有法 定货币地位，相关业务活动属于非法金融活动。同时，重申境内对于虚拟货币"挖矿"的禁止性政策等。《通知》还强调，未经相关部门依法依规同意，境内 ...

Core Viewpoint - The joint interpretation of the "Plan for Accelerating the Cultivation of New Growth Points in Service Consumption" highlights the shift in consumer spending from goods to services, emphasizing the importance of service consumption as a key driver for high-quality economic development [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Consumer Behavior - From 2020 to 2025, per capita service consumption expenditure is expected to grow at an annual rate of 8.5%, indicating strong growth momentum [1]. - The proportion of per capita service consumption expenditure in total per capita consumption is projected to increase to 46.1%, up by 3.5 percentage points [1]. Group 2: Policy Framework and Support Measures - The Ministry of Commerce will establish a "1+N" policy system to support the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, with the "Plan" as the central framework [1]. - Specific policies will be developed for over 10 areas, including home services, automotive aftermarket, performing arts, and inbound consumption, aimed at removing unreasonable restrictions and optimizing the policy environment [1][2]. Group 3: Focus Areas for Development - The "Plan" emphasizes stimulating key sectors such as transportation services, home services, online audio-visual services, and inbound consumption, while also identifying potential areas like performance services and experiential services [2]. - The Ministry of Transport plans to enhance self-driving tourism by improving traffic conditions and aims to build over 10,000 charging stations on national highways by 2026, with at least 25% being high-power chargers [2]. Group 4: Integration of Services - The National Radio and Television Administration will implement the "Micro Short Drama+" action plan to enhance service consumption across various sectors, focusing on the integration of technology and industry [2]. - The General Administration of Sports aims to address challenges in the sports economy and promote consumption through events, integrating sports with tourism and culture to expand the consumer market [3].

服务消费的一个重要特点，即收入预期下滑或保障缺乏时，人们最先削减的就是服务消费。服务消费本 质上是大众基本物质需求有一定保障之后的消费升级。当前部分流动人口服务消费尚未被激发。另外， 我国劳动者工作时间较长，服务消费潜力有待释放。激活服务消费，首先需加强服务消费的能力与信 心，从需求端收入保障出发，如促进就业、稳定收入预期；强化社会保障，如农村养老保障、流动人口 社保进一步完善；发放服务消费券，如针对教育培训、文旅游学等定向补贴到个人。 此外，提振服务消费还需从供给端发力。当前我国服务消费市场潜力巨大，但有效供给不足、消费环境 待优化等问题依然存在。 提振服务消费，充分释放服务消费潜力，需多措并举、系统推进。其一，有针对性地解决制度性障碍， 如部分行业准入门槛较高、民营资本进入受限等问题。其二，服务消费环境亟待优化，如建立重点服务 行业国家标准、服务消费投诉 【下载黑猫投诉客户端】联动机制、预付费资金监管制度等，加强消费 者权益保护，特别是当前大众关注的数据安全、隐私保护等，一旦出现问题，将会影响服务消费信心。 其三，补足供给侧短板，尤其是养老、托育、医疗等领域优质服务存在明显缺口，需拓展高品质、个性 化服务 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that most provinces in China have either maintained or lowered their economic growth targets for 2026, indicating a stable policy stance compared to 2025, with a focus on structural policies in sectors like artificial intelligence, service consumption, commercial aerospace, and robotics [3][12][13] - The current period is identified as the optimal entry point for the strongest seasonal construction market, with a significant probability of entering the first benign adjustment phase in the growth industry cycle [4][14] - The report suggests that representative stocks typically experience a maximum adjustment range of 15-30% during the first benign adjustment phase, with a pattern of "decline → rebound → decline" observed historically [15][17] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on stable and certain investment opportunities, particularly in sectors with regular construction opportunities, highlighting ten key sub-sectors and a portfolio of 18 advantageous stocks [29][30] - It notes that the AI industry chain remains a core focus for 2026, although it is currently entering the first benign adjustment phase, with expectations of a 15-20% adjustment in growth style [30][31] - The report indicates that traditional consumer goods and defensive dividend stocks are experiencing a short-term rotation, which aligns with historical patterns observed during the initial phase of benign adjustments [29][30]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][29] Core Viewpoints - Huangshan Tourism plans to invest 530 million yuan in a hotel project to enhance its tourism product offerings, with a projected payback period of 16.14 years [5] - In January 2025, Tmall's beauty sales grew by 24% year-on-year, indicating a strong performance in the beauty sector [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding new consumer narratives to capture growth opportunities in emerging consumer goods [18] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Performance - The new consumption sector saw a weekly performance with the beauty care index up by 3.69%, while the retail index decreased by 0.34% [8] Key Industry Data - In December, retail sales of cosmetics in China increased by 8.8% year-on-year, while jewelry sales rose by 5.9% [11][12] Investment Analysis Opinions - The report suggests focusing on high-quality domestic brands in beauty and skincare, such as Maogeping and Shangmei, as well as head brands in gold jewelry and trendy toys that appeal to younger consumers [18]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing a comprehensive plan to accelerate the growth of service consumption, which is expected to play a crucial role in enhancing economic quality and driving consumer spending [2][3]. Group 1: Policy Framework - The State Council has issued a "Work Plan" aimed at optimizing and expanding service supply, fostering new growth points in service consumption, and enhancing the quality of service consumption [2]. - The Ministry of Commerce will establish a "1+N" policy system to support various sectors, including home services, automotive aftermarket, and performing arts, with over ten specific support policies to be introduced [2][3]. Group 2: Service Consumption Growth - From 2020 to 2025, per capita service consumption expenditure is projected to grow at an annual rate of 8.5%, with the share of service consumption in total household expenditure increasing to 46.1%, up by 3.5 percentage points [2]. - The focus of consumer demand is shifting from mere availability to quality, with increasing demand for personalized, diverse, and high-quality service consumption products [2]. Group 3: Infrastructure and Support Initiatives - The Ministry of Transport plans to cultivate new growth points in transportation service consumption, including the development of a high-quality car rental service network and the expansion of yacht and cruise consumption [4][6]. - Plans are in place to construct over 10,000 charging stations on highways by 2026, with at least 25% being high-power charging stations to enhance service capacity [4]. Group 4: Sports and Entertainment Consumption - The sports sector is expected to see significant growth, with ski resorts projected to attract 118 million visitors and generate a total consumption of 69.15 billion yuan during the 2025-2026 winter season [7]. - The network audiovisual sector is anticipated to reach a market size of nearly one trillion yuan by 2025, driven by the popularity of micro-short dramas and a user base of 1.09 billion [7][8]. Group 5: International Consumption - The Ministry of Commerce is focusing on enhancing the international consumption environment, with a target of 82.04 million inbound travelers by 2025, representing a 26.4% increase [8]. - The sales of tax refund goods for outbound travelers are expected to grow by 95.9%, with nearly 13,000 tax refund stores established by the end of 2025 [8].

（来源：河北日报） 转自：河北日报 拼挖潜 今年各地促进服务消费这样干 "作为有奖发票试点城市之一，我们将进一步打通'观演+逛街+购物'连贯消费链路，重点拉动餐饮、文 旅、体育等领域消费。"河北省政协委员、石家庄市商务局局长刘春东说。 文体商旅融合是推动服务消费扩容的"热土"。 2025年，不少地方尝到了融合的甜头。江苏以"足球+"撬动全域消费新增长；重庆大足区借舞剧《天下 大足》东风，推出"观剧畅游"计划，观众凭演出票根可享受大足石刻门票优惠，促进从剧场到景区的客 流导引；山西鼓励戏剧作品在全国各地演出，带动泥塑、书签、冰箱贴等文创产品热销…… □新华社记者 胡旭 朱丽莉 周颖 近期陆续召开的地方两会上，"服务消费"成为各地政府工作报告中的热词。围绕加快培育服务消费新增 长点，各地提出一系列部署举措，地方人大代表和政协委员纷纷建言献策。 从多地政府工作报告中可以看到，2025年服务消费发展取得新成效：北京演艺经济更加火热，举办大型 活动2295场、增长25.8%；山东游客人数、旅游收入均增长10%以上；重庆全年接待游客突破5亿人次， 入境旅游人次增长68.2%…… 2026年，各地培育服务消费新增长点从哪些 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the end of the QE era, highlighting the transition from quantitative easing (QE) to quantitative tightening (QT) and the implications for monetary policy and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet management [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Transition from QE to QT - The Federal Reserve has undergone four rounds of QE and two rounds of QT from 2008 to 2026, with total assets expected to remain above $6 trillion by the end of 2025 [2]. - In December 2025, the FOMC meeting indicated a restart of reserve management purchases (RMO) to maintain sufficient reserves, emphasizing the fundamental differences between RMP and QE [2]. 2. Framework of the Balance Sheet - The Fed's policy framework shifted from a "scarce reserves" model to a "ample reserves" model post-2008 financial crisis, where policy rates serve as the primary indicator of monetary policy stance rather than the balance sheet [2]. - Under the "ample reserves" framework, policy rates and the balance sheet operate under separate decision-making systems [2]. 3. Conditions for Future QE - The article posits that a return to QE or yield curve control (YCC) may be necessary if the Fed lowers interest rates, suggesting that 2026 could mark the final phase of the current liquidity easing cycle [3]. - It argues that the Fed's balance sheet is not strictly a one-way street of expansion, indicating that the QE era may be over until the next crisis arises [3]. 4. Observations from Local "Two Sessions" - The average GDP growth target for twenty provinces and cities is set at 5.1% for 2026, with various adjustments noted compared to 2025 targets [19]. - The article provides a detailed table of GDP growth targets, CPI targets, and other economic indicators for different provinces, reflecting a trend of slight downward adjustments in growth expectations [19].

Core Viewpoint - China's service consumption is entering a significant strategic opportunity period, with projections indicating that by 2025, per capita service consumption expenditure will account for 46.1% of total per capita consumption expenditure, nearing half of total consumption [2] Group 1: Policy Initiatives - The State Council has approved a work plan to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, focusing on optimizing service supply and enhancing quality [2] - Various departments, including the Ministry of Transport and the Ministry of Commerce, have announced measures to support the development of service consumption [2] - The Ministry of Commerce aims to enhance service supply and adapt to consumer demand, thereby improving public satisfaction and happiness [2] Group 2: Growth Trends - From 2020 to 2025, China's per capita service consumption expenditure is expected to grow at an annual rate of 8.5%, indicating strong growth momentum [3] - As GDP per capita surpasses $10,000, the elasticity of goods consumption decreases while the potential for service consumption increases, reflecting a natural economic progression [4] - The emotional economy market in China is projected to reach 23,077.67 billion yuan in 2024, with expectations to exceed 45,000 billion yuan by 2029, indicating a robust growth trajectory [4] Group 3: Sector-Specific Developments - The transportation sector is focusing on developing new growth points in service consumption, including self-driving travel services, high-quality development of micro-car rentals, and expanding yacht and cruise consumption [5] - The ice and snow economy is also being promoted, with significant increases in visitor numbers and spending in ski resorts, indicating a growing market [6] Group 4: Investment and Infrastructure - The government is actively investing in public service sectors, which is creating foundational conditions for service consumption growth [10] - The Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Finance have initiated pilot projects for new consumption models, allocating 8.6 billion yuan in initial funding to support these initiatives [8]