1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton remain strong due to supportive market bullish factors, such as the confirmed reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang, fast cotton sales progress, improved Sino - US relations, and expansion capacity expectations of Xinjiang textile mills. However, the cotton price has significantly corrected recently, and it's necessary to observe if it can break through the 20 - day line. For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for the short - term trends of US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton, including unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options [6][7][9] - The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is light, with prices stable to slightly rising. The acceptance of new price increases by downstream is poor. The shipment of all - cotton plain cloth is still divided, with clothing fabric mills cautious and home textile fabric mills having a slightly better attitude. Attention should be paid to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and downstream demand [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Disk**: For cotton futures contracts (CF01, CF05, CF09), the closing prices decreased, with the decline ranging from 20 to 65. The trading volume and open interest of different contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of CF05 increased by 106,794, while its open interest decreased by 31,033. For cotton yarn futures contracts (CY01, CY05, CY09), the closing prices mostly decreased, and trading volume and open interest also had various changes [2] - **Spot Prices**: The price of CCIndex3128B decreased by 135 to 15,857 yuan/ton, while the price of CY IndexC32S remained unchanged at 21,300 yuan/ton. Other spot prices such as Cot A, FC Index, etc., also had corresponding changes [2] - **Price Spreads**: In cotton inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was 85 with a 30 increase; in cotton yarn inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was - 425 with a 110 increase. In cross - variety spreads, CY01 - CF01 was 5515 with a 20 increase. The internal - external price spreads of cotton and cotton yarn also changed [2] 3.2 Market News and Views 3.2.1 Cotton Market News - As of January 9, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.7756 million tons, accounting for 89.2% of the estimated US cotton production in the 2025/26 season, 9% slower than the same period last year. The inspection progress of upland cotton was 89.37%, and that of Pima cotton was 88.6%. The quarterly deliverable ratio was 82.3%, 1.4 percentage points higher year - on - year. It is expected that the inspection speed will accelerate later [4] - As of January 2, the number of un - priced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2603 contract decreased by 1,977 to 18,662, a 40,000 - ton decrease from last week. The total number of un - priced contracts of sellers in the 25/26 season decreased by 2,068 to 36,195, equivalent to 820,000 tons, a 50,000 - ton decrease from last week [5] - On January 12, 2026, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang cotton was 0.1726 yuan/ton·km, a 3.52% decrease from the previous day. It is expected that the freight index will show a narrow - range fluctuation in the short term [5] 3.2.2 Trading Logic - The rumored reduction in cotton production has been gradually confirmed. The cotton sales progress is fast, and factors such as improved Sino - US relations and the expansion capacity of Xinjiang textile mills support the upward movement of fundamentals. The upward trend of the disk is obvious, with some ginning mills reluctant to sell and downstream textile mills starting to price [6] 3.2.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: It is expected that the short - term trend of US cotton will mostly be range - bound. For Zhengzhou cotton, the positions of the recent main contracts have decreased, and the price has dropped significantly. It is recommended to wait and see [7] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8] - **Options**: Wait and see [9] 3.2.4 Cotton Yarn Industry News - The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is light, with prices stable to slightly rising. The acceptance of new price increases by downstream is poor, but there is a slight improvement in downstream orders in some markets. Attention should be paid to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and downstream demand [9] - The shipment of all - cotton plain cloth is divided. Clothing fabric mills are cautious, and home textile fabric mills have a slightly better attitude. Observe the post - Spring Festival market situation [9] 3.3 Options - The 10 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 6.4492, with a slight increase in volatility. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 was 6.7%, that of CF601 - P - 13000 was 11.4%, and that of CF601 - P - 12400 was 17.8% [11] - Yesterday, the position PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7339, and the trading volume PCR of the main contract was 0.6421. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today. It is recommended to wait and see for options [12][13] 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the internal - external market cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton 1 - month basis, cotton 5 - month basis, cotton 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 spread, CY01 - CF01 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [15][18][22][23]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for short fibers is "shockingly bullish" [1] - The investment rating for bottle chips is "shockingly bullish" [1] Group 2: Core Views - The short - fiber futures are generally volatile, with stable spot factory quotes and a 72% average sales - to - production ratio as of 3:00 pm [1][2] - The upstream raw material futures of bottle chips are mainly volatile, and the quotes of polyester bottle chip factories are mostly stable with some local price cuts. The market trading atmosphere is average [2] Group 3: Summary by Catalog Fundamental Tracking - **Short Fibers**: The price of short - fiber 2602 increased by 14 to 6472, short - fiber 2603 increased by 14 to 6504, and short - fiber 2604 decreased by 34. The PF03 - 04 spread increased by 48. The short - fiber主力持仓量 increased by 22874 to 135252, while the主力 trading volume decreased by 14836 to 99224. The short - fiber East China spot price decreased by 5 to 6,520 [1] - **Bottle Chips**: The price of bottle chip 2602 increased by 32, bottle chip 2603 increased by 20, and bottle chip 2604 increased by 18. The PR01 - 02 spread increased by 12, and the PR02 - 03 spread increased by 2. The bottle - chip主力持仓量 increased by 1025 to 43240, and the主力 trading volume increased by 3821 to 56496. The bottle - chip East China spot price remained unchanged at 6030, and the South China spot price decreased by 10 to 6080 [1] Spot News - **Short Fibers**: Short - fiber futures fluctuated, and spot factory quotes were mainly stable. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were highly differentiated [1][2] - **Bottle Chips**: Upstream raw material futures fluctuated. Polyester bottle - chip factory quotes were mostly stable, with some local price cuts of 10 - 20 yuan. The market trading atmosphere was average, and orders from January to March were mostly traded at 6000 - 6100 yuan/ton ex - factory [2] Trend Strength - The trend strength of short fibers is 0, and that of bottle chips is 0, referring only to the daily - session main - contract futures price fluctuations on the report day [2]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 9 日 豆粕：震荡，等待下周 USDA 报告 豆一：调整震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | +41 4387 | （+0.94%） -9 （-0.21%） 4369 | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2782 -9 | （-0.32%） 2779 -25（-0.89%） | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1061.25 | -4.75（-0.45%） | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | -1.9 303.4 | n a （-0.62%） | | | | 3105～3200， 较昨+30至+40； | 豆粕 （43%） 1月M2605+350/+380， 持平； 2月M2605+370， 持 | | | 山东 （元/吨） | | M2605+260/+300/+310/+3 ...

2026 年 01 月 09 日 短纤：短期震荡市 20260109 瓶片：短期震荡市 20260109 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2602 | 6472 | 6544 | -72 | PF02-03 | -72 | 12 | -84 | | PF | 短纤2602 | 6544 | 6532 | 12 | PF03-04 | T | 76 | -80 | | | 短纤2603 | 6548 | 6456 | 92 | PF主力基差 | -19 | -2 | -17 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 112378 | 116315 | -3937 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6, 525 | 6,530 | -5 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 114060 | 126634 | -12574 | 短纤产销率 | ୧୧% | 74% | -8 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，1月9日，纽约期银日内涨2%，现报76.65美元/盎司。 ...

| | 操作评级 | 2026年01月08日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | ななな | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | な女女 | | | 氧化铝 | ななな | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | | | 锌 | ★☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 铝 | ★☆☆ | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 镇及不锈钢 立☆☆ | | | | | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 锡 | な☆☆ | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | なな女 | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业硅 | ☆☆☆ | | | 多晶硅 | 女女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周四沪铜增仓、主力换月至2603合约。今日上海铜贴水扩至125元,SMM社库周内增加1.96万吨至27.38万吨。前 期260 ...

每经AI快讯，1月8日，欧线集运期货主力连续合约跌9.08%，报1704点。 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] 2. Core View - The spot market supply remains tight, with strong premium quotes from traders. Although downstream procurement is hesitant due to high prices, rigid demand still exists. The TC of domestic zinc mines has stopped falling, while that of imported mines is still slightly declining. After winter storage, smelters' raw material inventories have increased, but the available days are still low, and procurement demand remains. The comprehensive smelting losses of domestic smelters have widened, with more maintenance in December, and the supply pressure has decreased significantly month-on-month. There is a possibility that the output in January may fall short of expectations. The fundamental data is still bullish, and the market is optimistic about future consumption. The expectation of interest rate cuts remains unchanged, and re - inflation has not yet been reflected. The market sentiment may decline, but the decline range of zinc prices may be limited. [4] 3. Key Data Summary Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$36.67/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 24,300 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of 110 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 24,210 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 20 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 24,220 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 30 yuan/ton. [1] Futures Market - On January 7, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 24,300 yuan/ton and closed at 24,330 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 187,735 lots, and the open interest was 91,603 lots. The highest price during the day was 24,515 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24,145 yuan/ton. [2] Inventory - As of January 7, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 114,800 tons, an increase of 8,700 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 105,500 tons, a decrease of 275 tons from the previous trading day. [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market is influenced by the tense situation in Venezuela and Indonesian policies, with funds flowing into the nickel sector, causing the price of the Shanghai nickel futures contract to hit a new high since June 2024. Although the fundamentals show high inventory and oversupply, it is expected to remain strong due to favorable policies from Indonesia and attention from profitable funds in the precious metals and non - ferrous sectors [1][3]. - The stainless - steel market is affected by the cost transmission of the sharp rise in Shanghai nickel and Indonesian nickel export restrictions. The short - term trend depends on the performance of Shanghai nickel, and the medium - to - long - term trend needs to focus on the improvement of spot trading and policy implementation [4][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 7, 2026, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 143,500 yuan/ton and closed at 147,720 yuan/ton, up 8.00% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,132,256 (+393,922) lots, and the open interest was 132,955 (+1,474) lots. The price hit a new high since June 2024, and the bullish sentiment of funds reached a climax [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market has limited resources, and the price is stable with an upward trend. The 1.25 - grade nickel ore tender in the Philippines' Benguet mine was settled at $32.5, up from the previous level. In Indonesia, the first - phase domestic trade benchmark price in January 2026 increased by $0.05 - 0.08 per wet ton, and the second - phase domestic trade base price is expected to rise by $3 - 5 [1]. - **Spot**: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 153,300 yuan/ton, up 5,600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The downstream acceptance of high prices was limited, and spot trading was cold. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 500 yuan/ton to 9,250 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 600 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 38,776 (-612) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 275,634 (+20,088) tons [2]. Strategy - The operation strategy is mainly range trading for the single - side, and no operations are recommended for the inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3][4]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 7, 2026, the stainless - steel main contract 2602 opened at 13,450 yuan/ton and closed at 14,025 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 288,456 (+151,355) lots, and the open interest was 112,880 (-4,171) lots. Affected by the cost transmission of Shanghai nickel and Indonesian policies, it showed a one - way upward trend and closed at the daily limit. The spot price increased synchronously, but the market was in a state of "high price but few transactions" [4]. - **Spot**: The futures price hit the daily limit, and the spot price increased significantly. The downstream inquiry was active, but the transaction was cautious. Some steel mills suspended orders. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,900 (+600) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,900 (+600) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 100 - 300 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 12.50 yuan/nickel point to 947.5 yuan/nickel point [5]. Strategy - The short - term trend depends on the performance of Shanghai nickel, and the medium - to - long - term trend needs to focus on the improvement of spot trading and policy implementation. The operation strategy is neutral for the single - side, and no operations are recommended for the inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton sector in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock industry is "Bullish Bias" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - ICE US cotton futures have corrected, and the main 03 contract settled at 64.85 cents, down 0.32%. The expectation of a tight balance in Zhengzhou cotton continues to intensify. Zhengzhou cotton has encountered resistance at the 15,000 integer level after continuous upward movement. In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton may undergo some adjustments at the current level, but the bottom support is solid and the downside space is limited [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1) Market Quotes - ICE March contract settled at 65.06, up 41 points; May at 66.43, up 44 points; July at 67.74, up 43 points, with about 86,000 contracts traded. Zhengzhou cotton had a total trading volume of 795,874 and an open interest of 1,246,090. The settlement prices were 15,100 for January, 14,965 for May, and 15,155 for September [2] 2) Important News - On January 4, spinning enterprises in the Bazhou area of southern Xinjiang purchased 31 - grade double - 29 machine - picked new cotton with less than 2.8% impurity in Xinjiang warehouses. The contract basis transaction price was 950 - 1050 yuan/ton, and the pick - up price was 15,500 - 15,650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2] - As of December 18, 2025, the United States had cumulatively signed and exported 1.488 million tons of cotton for the 2025/26 season, accounting for 56.03% of the annual expected export volume, and had cumulatively shipped 640,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 43.01% [2] - As of now this season, the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has cumulatively purchased about 2.85 million tons of seed cotton, 39% of which is from Telangana. Converted at a lint percentage of 35%, the CCI's cumulative purchase is equivalent to about 998,000 tons of lint cotton [2] - The cotton - growing area in West Texas, USA, is dry and windy, while the temperatures in the central - southern and southeastern cotton - growing areas are rising [2] - On January 4, the spot price of cotton yarn rose slightly. After the holiday, spinning enterprises gradually resumed production, and the overall production and sales in the market were relatively stable, mostly in a shipping state. The cotton yarn price continued to rise in some areas and remained stable in others [2] 3) Market Logic - ICE US cotton futures have corrected, and the expectation of a tight balance in Zhengzhou cotton continues to intensify. Zhengzhou cotton has faced resistance at the 15,000 level. Due to the decrease in cotton planting subsidies in the new year and the increase in rigid demand from new production capacity in Xinjiang, short - term adjustments may occur, but the bottom support is strong [2] 4) Trading Strategy - Hold the call option with an execution price of 13,600 yuan/ton for the 05 contract [2]