能源化工丨日报 2025 年 06 月 18 日 广金期货研究中心 能源化工研究员 马琛 020-88523420 期货从业资格证号： F03095619 投资咨询资格证号： Z0017388 中东局势持续紧张，油价高位盘旋 核心观点 一、欧美原油期货价格上涨 6 月 17 日（周二），纽约商品期货交易所 WTI 7 月原油即期合约 收盘上涨 3.07 美元/桶，至 74.84 美元/桶，涨幅 4.28%。洲际交易所 布伦特 8 月原油即期合约收盘上涨 3.22 美元/桶，至 76.45 美元/桶， 涨幅 4.40%。 二、OPEC+增产不及预期 中东地缘局势紧张。美国总统特朗普表示，从未以任何方式、任 何形式与伊朗就"和平会谈"联系。以色列国防部长卡茨称，以军已 摧毁了伊朗纳坦兹核设施的中心区域，并计划摧毁伊朗核计划的所有 基础设施。以方将继续针对伊朗军事领导人、核计划和导弹系统发动 袭击。 四、后市展望 短期内市场仍将交易中东地缘局势，油价高位盘旋。从基本面来 看，夏季驾车旅行旺季临近，主要石油消费大国炼厂开工率已从检修 中恢复，在伦敦结束的中美经贸谈判取得积极进展，宏观环境目前亦 较为宽松，且 OPEC ...

美联储政策被政治化，降息靴子何时落地？中东局势升级，油价涨势能持续吗？点击查看详细解读！ 相关链接 美联储分歧大，降息概率几何？ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Brent has a chance to challenge $85 per barrel in the third quarter (an upward revision of $5 per barrel from last week), but in the medium to long term, there is significant downward pressure on oil prices, and Brent may test $50 per barrel within the year [6]. - In the short - term, due to the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical situation, the risk premium can be freely hyped. Fundamentally, OPEC+'s month - on - month production increase is lower than market expectations, and there are still positive factors such as a significant contraction in Iranian crude oil supply under US sanctions, low absolute inventory levels in major regions excluding floating storage, and a slowdown in the growth of US shale oil supply. Coupled with the positive sentiment from the China - US presidential call, oil prices may continue to rebound [6]. - If OPEC+ effectively implements production increases, the medium - to - long - term oversupply pressure in the crude oil market will increase. Combined with the uncertainty of the trade war, there may be a deeper decline within the year [6]. - The strategy is to hold long - only positions and take profits as appropriate, and also take profits on positive spreads as appropriate [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - The long - end US Treasury yield fluctuates significantly, and the gold - oil ratio drops from a high level [12]. - Overseas inflation continues to decline, and China - US "trade" relations ease [18]. - The RMB exchange rate continues to strengthen, and social financing rebounds [19]. 3.2 Supply - **Country - specific supply situations**: - In Venezuela, due to intensified US sanctions, PDVSA's sour crude production is difficult to maintain. Chevron's export capacity is terminated, and there is an oversupply situation [7]. - Kazakhstan's production in May exceeded the target, mainly due to the increased production capacity of the Tengiz oil field led by Chevron and the failure of the government's negotiation on production cuts with operators [7]. - Iraq is a key country for compensatory production cuts. If the Israel - Iran conflict escalates, it may limit Iraq's crude oil exports to the Asia - Pacific market [7]. - The UAE's Adnoc reduces Murban crude oil export forecasts, which has affected its premium compared to other Middle Eastern varieties [7]. - Saudi Arabia's production in May increased slightly but was still below the target. It is expected to be the main driving force for OPEC+ production increases in the coming months [7]. - Russia's actual available idle production capacity is limited due to sanctions, and it questioned accelerating production increases at the May OPEC+ meeting [7]. - The US EIA predicts that US crude oil production will reach a record high in 2025 but will decline in 2026. Drilling activities are decreasing, and capital expenditure by shale oil companies is being cut [8]. - Iran's May crude oil production reached the highest level since August 2018, but it faces the threat of supply interruption due to the Israel - Iran conflict [8]. - **OPEC+ production strategies**: - OPEC+ shifted to a market - share strategy in 2025, accelerating the lifting of the additional 2.2 million barrels per day production cut plan agreed at the end of 2023. The production target increase has accelerated from 137,000 barrels per day to 411,000 barrels per day [8]. - There are differences among OPEC+ members regarding production increases. Russia and Oman questioned the collective decision in May, but the decision was advanced [8]. - Most OPEC+ countries are approaching their effective production capacity, and differences in production capacity assessment are a future challenge [8]. 3.3 Demand - **Asia**: - China's crude oil demand growth in 2025 is expected to be around 0.8%, with a daily demand of 16.23 million barrels. Saudi Aramco's supply to China in July is slightly lower than in June, and state - owned refineries' demand for Saudi crude has increased while private refineries' demand has decreased [10]. - India's overall oil demand growth in 2025 is expected to be 170,000 barrels per day on average, contributing significantly to global demand growth. Its oil product consumption in May increased year - on - year and month - on - month [10]. - Japan, South Korea, and Indian refineries will receive their "usual quantities" of Saudi crude in July, and the demand is affected by prices [10]. - **America**: - The US's crude oil imports from Iran may have decreased significantly in May, but overall imports remain strong due to large - scale inventory replenishment. The refinery utilization rate in the US Gulf Coast region reached a high this year [10]. - **Europe**: - At least three European buyers will receive their "full contractual volumes" in July, but one has reduced demand due to price increases. Aramco has raised the July formula price, and European local crude has a price advantage [10]. - **Africa**: - The domestic demand of Nigeria has been fluctuating. The Dangote refinery is diversifying its crude oil sources and reducing its dependence on domestic grades. Some market participants expect European demand to rebound in May [10]. 3.4 Inventory - US commercial inventories are declining, and inventories in the Cushing area are stabilizing but are significantly lower than historical averages [61]. - Refining margins are oscillating strongly [63]. - European crude oil inventories are rebounding, while diesel and gasoline inventories are decreasing [65]. - Domestic refined oil margins are recovering [68]. 3.5 Price and Spreads - The North American basis has a slight rebound [72]. - The month - spread has rebounded [73]. - SC is weaker than the overseas market, the month - spread has declined, and the valuation is at a low level [74]. - The net long - position has stabilized [76].

以色列袭击伊朗，中东局势迅速升级，原油系期货合约反弹走高，未来油价上行空间还有多少？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

油气ETF紧密跟踪国证石油天然气指数，国证石油天然气指数反映沪深北交易所石油天然气产业相关上 市公司的证券价格变化情况。 数据显示，截至2025年5月30日，国证石油天然气指数(399439)前十大权重股分别为中国石油(601857)、 中国石化(600028)、中国海油(600938)、广汇能源(600256)、杰瑞股份(002353)、新奥股份(600803)、招 商轮船(601872)、中远海能(600026)、海油工程(600583)、招商南油(601975)，前十大权重股合计占比 66.48%。 油气ETF(159697)，场外联接A：019827；联接C：019828；联接I：022861。 截至2025年6月13日收盘，国证石油天然气指数(399439)强势上涨2.47%，成分股潜能恒信(300191)上涨 10.97%，中曼石油(603619)、泰山石油(000554)10cm涨停，石化油服(600871)，和顺石油(603353)等个股 跟涨。油气ETF(159697)收涨2.60%， 实现3连涨。 受中东局势急剧升温影响，WTI原油期货大涨10%，报74.99美元/桶，创2月3日以来新高。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has signs of escalation, and oil prices have rebounded significantly. However, under the expectation of weak supply and demand, there is also significant pressure for oil prices to continue rising. If there is no further positive news, oil prices may face a correction. PX supply has increased significantly recently, and the supply - demand margin has weakened, but it still has support in the short term. PTA's supply - demand margin has also weakened, but it has support at low levels. Ethylene glycol is expected to be weak in the short term. Short - fiber has a situation of weak supply and demand, and bottle - chip's supply - demand is expected to improve in June [2]. - **Methanol Industry**: The supply of methanol is generally in a loose pattern, and the demand side has a situation where MTO has mostly increased its load but downstream profits have deteriorated. The price can be operated in the range of 2200 - 2350 [21]. - **Styrene Industry**: The price of pure benzene has risen slightly, and the supply of styrene has increased. Downstream 3S profits have improved, and port inventories have decreased slightly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the short - selling opportunities caused by the resonance of raw material ends in the medium term [26]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda Industry**: The supply of caustic soda has declined recently, and there is pressure on supply and demand in the short term. It is recommended to exit the 7 - 9 positive spread. PVC is expected to fluctuate in the short term and maintain a short - selling idea in the long term [71]. - **PE and PP Industry**: PE has a small increase in domestic supply and a decrease in imports, with limited supply pressure in June. PP has new capacity coming on - stream in June - July, and there is significant pressure on inventory accumulation [74]. - **Urea Industry**: The domestic urea market has a lackluster trading atmosphere, and the futures and spot prices continue to decline. It is expected to remain weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether the adjustment of summer agricultural fertilizer preparation and export policies can improve the situation [82]. - **Crude Oil Industry**: Overnight crude oil prices oscillated and declined due to the fading of geopolitical risk premiums. It is recommended to take a short - term bullish approach, pay attention to the expansion opportunities of the monthly spread on the arbitrage side, and consider buying a straddle structure on the options side [86]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: On June 12, Brent crude oil (August) was at $69.36 per barrel, down 0.6% from the previous day; WTI crude oil (July) was at $68.15 per barrel, up 0.2%. CFR Japan naphtha was at $585 per ton, up 2.3% [2]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price was 6955 yuan per ton, up 0.7%; FDY150/96 price was 7210 yuan per ton, up 0.7%; DTY150/48 price was 8120 yuan per ton, up 0.3% [2]. - **PX - related**: CFR China PX was at $818 per ton, up 0.7%; PX spot price (in RMB) was 6770 yuan per ton, down 0.5% [2]. - **PTA - related**: PTA East China spot price was 4855 yuan per ton, up 0.6%; TA futures 2509 was at 4620 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. - **MEG - related**: MEG port inventory was 63.4 million tons, up 2.1%; MEG to - port expectation was 12.8 million tons, up from 10.8 million tons [2]. - **Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rates**: Asian PX operating rate was 75.1%, up 3.1%; China PX operating rate was 87.0%, up 4.9%; PTA operating rate was 79.7%, up 4.0% [2]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closing price was 2353 yuan per ton, up 0.34%; MA2509 closing price was 2290 yuan per ton, up 0.35%; Taicang basis was 85 yuan per ton, up 6.92% [21]. - **Inventories**: Methanol enterprise inventory was 37.912%, up 2.33%; methanol port inventory was 65.2 million tons, up 12.22%; methanol social inventory was 103.1%, up 8.37% [21]. - **Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate was 75.14%, up 0.83%; downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate was 85.13%, up 0.72% [21]. Styrene Industry - **Upstream**: Brent crude oil (August) was at $69.4 per barrel, down 0.6%; CFR Japan naphtha was at $585 per ton, up 2.3%; CFR Northeast Asia ethylene was at $780 per ton, unchanged [23]. - **Spot and Futures**: Styrene East China spot price was 7815 yuan per ton, up 0.7%; EB2507 was at 7353 yuan per ton, up 0.1%; EB basis was 462 yuan per ton, up 12.4% [24]. - **Overseas Quotes and Import Profits**: Styrene CFR China was at $910 per ton, up 0.2%; styrene import profit was 174.6 yuan per ton, up 34.3% [25]. - **Industry Chain Operating Rates and Profits**: Domestic pure benzene comprehensive operating rate was 77.2%, up 5.9%; styrene operating rate was 72.3%, up 0.4%; styrene integrated profit was 162.6 yuan per ton, down 61.2% [26]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Spot and Futures**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% price was 2718.8 yuan per ton, unchanged; East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price was 4720 yuan per ton, unchanged [67]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: FOB East China port caustic soda was at $410 per ton, unchanged; PVC CFR Southeast Asia was at $670 per ton, unchanged [67][68]. - **Supply - side Operating Rates and Profits**: Caustic soda industry operating rate was 87.9%, up 0.8%; PVC total operating rate was 77.5%, up 3.8%; external - procurement calcium - carbide - based PVC profit was - 912 yuan per ton, up 13.3% [69]. - **Demand - side Operating Rates**: Alumina industry operating rate was 78.8%, up 0.7%; viscose staple fiber industry operating rate was 80.6%, unchanged [70]. - **Inventories**: Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory was 23.3 million tons, up 11.9%; PVC upstream factory inventory was 39.8 million tons, up 3.5% [71]. PE and PP Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601 closing price was 7086 yuan per ton, up 0.16%; PP2601 closing price was 6918 yuan per ton, up 0.14%; East China PP drawbench spot price was 7040 yuan per ton, unchanged [74]. - **Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate was 79.2%, up 2.27%; PP device operating rate was 78.6%, up 2.1% [74]. - **Inventories**: PE enterprise inventory was 50.9 million tons, down 1.74%; PP enterprise inventory was 58.1 million tons, down 3.93% [74]. Urea Industry - **Futures Closing Prices**: 01 contract was at 1635 yuan per ton, down 0.73%; 05 contract was at 1664 yuan per ton, down 1.25%; 09 contract was at 1646 yuan per ton, down 1.26% [77]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: 01 contract - 05 contract was - 29 yuan per ton, up 23.68%; UR - MA main contract was - 655 yuan per ton, down 3.15% [78]. - **Main Positions**: Long top 20 was 176769 lots, up 6.68%; short top 20 was 197913 lots, up 8.10%; long - short ratio was 0.89, down 1.32% [79]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: Anthracite small pieces (Jincheng) were at 900 yuan per ton, down 5.26%; synthetic ammonia (Shandong) was at 2239 yuan per ton, down 0.18% [80]. - **Spot Market Prices**: Shandong (small particles) was at 1740 yuan per ton, down 0.57%; FOB China: small particles were at $360 per ton, unchanged [81]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily output was 20.68 million tons, up 1.00%; domestic urea weekly output was 141.32 million tons, down 1.82%; domestic urea factory inventory (weekly) was 117.71 million tons, up 13.69% [82]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: Brent was at $69.36 per barrel, down 0.59%; WTI was at $68.79 per barrel, up 1.10%; Brent M1 - M3 was $1.69 per barrel, up 3.05% [86]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB was 215.90 cents per gallon, up 0.75%; NYM ULSD was 220.77 cents per gallon, up 0.87%; ICE Gasoil was $645 per ton, up 1.45% [86]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: US gasoline crack spread was $21.89 per barrel, down 0.34%; European diesel crack spread was $20.55 per barrel, down 1.32% [86].

多重因素推动油价上涨，后续走势如何？ 金十期货6月10日讯，近期，地缘冲突加剧推动市场风险偏好回升，过去一周国际油价涨逾6%。 1. 银河期货：本轮中美高层会议可能释放积极信号，一旦中美贸易摩擦缓和，宏观风险偏好将得到提 升，利多油价。随着需求旺季来临，投资者需持续关注原油去库幅度以及下游油品的消费表现。只有需 求端的强预期兑现，才能支持油价持续上行。 2. 申银万国期货：后市投资者需重点关注三大因素：一是美伊谈判和俄乌谈判的最新进展；二是 OPEC+增产节奏；三是美国关税政策，若全球贸易摩擦缓和，原油需求有望增加30万桶/日以上。短期 季节性需求增长将继续支撑油价，但随着OPEC+产能逐步释放，长期油价走势偏空。 3. 海通期货：原油市场供需两端呈现高弹性特征，当前处于原油消费旺季，北美供应量下降缓解了 OPEC+增产带来的压力，宏观和地缘因素则推动油价反弹。但这些支撑油价走强的因素多为短期利 多，地缘政治和宏观经济形势仍存在较大的不确定性。鉴于当前处于原油消费旺季，短期内油价大幅下 跌的可能性较小，大概率维持区间震荡走势。 ...

新华财经纽约6月6日电（记者刘亚南）美国5月非农就业数据和提振市场人气，国际油价在隔夜市场小 幅走弱，6日早盘明显上涨，午间窄幅盘整，收盘时国际油价均明显上涨。 美国劳工部6日早间公布的数据显示，今年5月美国失业率维持在4.2%不变，非农业部门新增就业岗位 为13.9万，低于前一个月向下修订后的14.7万，但高于市场共识预计的12.9万。 截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所7月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨1.21美元，收于每桶64.58美元，涨幅 为1.91%；8月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨1.13美元，收于每桶66.47美元，涨幅为1.73%。 市场分析师弗拉基米尔·泽尔诺夫当日早些时候表示，美国公布强劲就业数据后，油价将测试新的高 点。 惠誉解决方案旗下研究机构BMI分析师表示，美国可能增加对委内瑞拉制裁以限制其原油出口以及以色 列可能打击伊朗基础设施给油价带来额外的上涨风险。 BMI分析师说，不过，石油需求的走弱和产油国整体增加供应将在未来几个季度给油价带来下行压力。 汇丰银行分析人士表示，欧佩克+将在今年8月和9月分别把日均原油供应量再提高41万桶和27.4万桶， 10月至12月每月上调幅度预计回到常规 ...

BMI（惠誉子公司）分析师在本周五的一份报告中指出："美国可能增加对委内瑞拉的制裁以限制原油 出口，以及以色列可能对伊朗基础设施发动袭击的潜在风险，都增加了油价上行的风险。" 但BMI分析师也指出，石油需求减弱以及欧佩克+和非欧佩克产油国增产，都将在未来几个季度增加油 价下行压力。 全球最大石油出口国沙特阿拉伯已将七月份对亚洲的原油价格下调至近两个月来的低点。此前，欧佩克 +同意在七月将产量提高41.1万桶/日，此次降价幅度小于市场预期。 沙特曾力推更大的增产幅度，这是其夺回市场份额并规范欧佩克+成员国（包括石油输出国组织及其盟 友俄罗斯）中超额生产国的整体策略的一部分。 包括Kim Fustier在内的汇丰银行分析师表示："根据我们的估计，随着夏季石油需求上升并在七月至八 月达到峰值，与欧佩克+的增产相匹配，市场在第二季度和第三季度将达到平衡。此后，欧佩克+加速 增产应会使市场在2025年第四季度出现比此前预测更大的盈余。" 汇丰研究称，欧佩克+预计将在下次会议上同意8月和9月两次大幅增产。预计在此期间，欧佩克+将分 别将日产量提高4.1万桶和27.4万桶。该行分析师表示："我们新的预期是，假设从10月到1 ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 6 日 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | | | | SC：元/桶 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌幅% | 成交量（万手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | WTI | 主力 | 63.36 | 62.74 | 63.96 | 62.17 | -1.06 | 30.22 | | Brent | 主力 | 65.52 | 64.91 | 65.95 | 64.27 | -1.10 | 37.63 | | SC | 主力（元/桶） | 466.7 | 463.7 | 469.8 | 460.5 | -0.83 | 13.50 | 数据来源：wind,建信期货研究发展部 ...