回顾食品饮料板块2015~2020年期间经历的一轮上行周期，估值先于盈利修复后再迎来"双击"空间。若 市场进入高位震荡，近期涨幅偏低且性价比高的指数或迎来补涨机会。 当前时点来看，食品饮料板块已进入深度价值区，无论是横向还是纵向对比均显示，板块当前估值处于 底部位置，大的下行风险基本消化，等待复苏的契机。 政策面来看，《个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施方案》9月1日落地，在传统消费旺季临近的背景下，该 政策有望进一步支持扩内需、促消费。 食品饮料ETF(515170)跟踪中证细分食品饮料产业主题指数，聚焦白酒、饮料乳品、调味发酵品等高壁 垒、强韧性板块，前十大成分股囊括"茅五泸汾洋"，帮助投资者一键配置"吃喝板块"核心资产。 相较于其成分股动辄数万、数十万的最低投资门槛，食品饮料ETF是小资金参与板块投资的便捷工具 (联接A类：013125；联接C类：013126)。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage sector has entered a deep value zone, with current valuations at a bottom position, indicating that significant downside risks have been largely digested, awaiting recovery opportunities [1] Policy Impact - The implementation of the "Personal Consumption Loan Interest Subsidy Policy" on September 1 is expected to further support domestic demand and promote consumption, especially as the traditional consumption peak season approaches [1] Investment Opportunities - The Food and Beverage ETF (515170) tracks the CSI segmented food and beverage industry theme index, focusing on high-barrier and resilient sectors such as liquor, beverages, dairy products, and seasoning [1] - The top ten constituent stocks include major brands like "Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Yanghe," providing investors with a convenient way to access core assets in the "food and beverage" sector [1] - Compared to the high minimum investment thresholds of individual constituent stocks, the Food and Beverage ETF serves as an accessible investment tool for smaller capital [1]

专题：财富领航征程丨金融新启航 中央金融工作会议指出，要做好科技金融、绿色金融、普惠金融、养老金融、数字金融 " 五 篇大文章 " ，为推进金融高质量发展指明了方向。鉴于此，新浪财经年度策划《金融新启 航》特别推出《财富领航征程》系列访谈栏目，深度对话金融机构高管、专家学者，共谋行 业发展之道。 作为金融市场的重要组成部分，牛市是投资者实现财富跃升的黄金窗口， 随着指数持续上行，市场对 牛市是否真正启动的讨论愈发热烈。当前背景下，如何在牛市抓住财富风口？如何搭建科学的全球资产 配置？本期《财富领航征程》对话上海财经大学滴水湖高级金融学院教授、资本市场研究中心主任陈 欣。 中国股市是全球最重要的金融市场之一，虽然近年经历了较大的波动和变化，但在陈欣看来，随着我国 经济的持续发展和资本市场的不断完善，国内股市正在逐渐走向成熟，未来波动率有望进一步减弱。 陈欣表示，银行股逆袭的背后是对"过度悲观"预期的修复；估值修复后，当前银行股持续获得显著超额 收益的空间并不大。与以往相比，目前消费类股票的估值水平并不高，仍有修复空间。股市中，不少投 资者热衷于追逐热门股，但需注意的是，其中可能存在"过度估值"陷阱，其底层风险难 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that despite market concerns about consumer recovery, Zhang Kun remains optimistic and challenges the prevailing pessimistic expectations [1][2][3] - Zhang Kun's funds have shown a high turnover rate in hidden heavy stocks, with the E Fund Quality Enterprises Three-Year Fund completely changing its holdings compared to the end of last year [1][5] - New additions to the hidden heavy stock list for the first half of the year include Meituan-W, Beike-W, and SF Holding, while companies like Samsonite and Giant Bio have exited [2][6][7] Group 2 - The report indicates a significant divergence in stock market performance across sectors, with defense, banking, and non-ferrous metals performing well, while real estate, food and beverage, and coal lagged [2] - Zhang Kun argues that the current pessimistic expectations regarding domestic demand are debatable, citing a substantial portion of his funds' holdings in domestic demand-related assets [2][3] - The report highlights that consumer confidence has been affected by declining real estate prices and persistent downward pressure on prices, impacting consumer willingness to spend [3][4] Group 3 - Zhang Kun emphasizes that the increase in preventive savings among residents has partially crowded out consumer spending, and consumer confidence indices have shown a downward trend [3][4] - Data shows that per capita disposable income in China has grown at a compound annual growth rate of 6.4% from 2020 to 2024, while total household deposits have increased significantly [3][4] - Zhang Kun believes that the development of high-value-added industries will eventually lead to higher wages and improved living standards for the public, which will positively influence domestic demand [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" with an expectation that the industry index will exceed the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [53]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the prices of broilers and chicks have reached a bottom and are beginning to rebound, although the losses in the breeding sector have widened [1][2]. - In July, the loss from broiler farming was 2.59 yuan per bird, and the loss from hatcheries was 0.23 yuan per bird, both showing an increase in loss compared to previous months [2][43]. - The report highlights a recovery in chick prices after hitting a low of 0.73 yuan per chick, with a subsequent increase of 0.10 yuan per chick over 15 days due to supply shortages and rising broiler prices [8][11]. Industry Overview - The total market capitalization of the industry is approximately 1,331.25 billion yuan, with 101 listed companies [3]. - The absolute performance of the industry over the past month is 3.5%, with a relative performance of 3.9% [4]. Price Trends - The average price of white feather broilers in July was 3.21 yuan per kg, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 12.30% and a month-on-month decrease of 8.55% [11]. - The average price of chicken products was 8535.88 yuan per ton, down 8.94% year-on-year and 3.04% month-on-month [11]. Sales Performance - In July, the sales volume of broiler meat for Shengnong Development was 15.87 million tons, up 22.83% year-on-year, while the sales volume for Xiantan Co. was 5.96 million tons, up 31.28% year-on-year [19][28]. - The sales revenue for Yisheng Co. in July was 1.01 billion yuan, down 46.39% year-on-year, while Shengnong Development's chicken meat sales revenue was 14.90 billion yuan, up 14.44% year-on-year [14][15]. Production Capacity - The average stock of grandparent stock chickens in July 2025 was 1.4 million sets, an increase of 7.3% year-on-year, while the stock of backup grandparent stock chickens decreased by 8.5% year-on-year [32][33]. - The average price of parent stock chicks in July was 47.66 yuan per set, with a slight decrease to 47.21 yuan per set in the latest week [35][37].

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced measures to boost consumption and stimulate market vitality, including policies for trade-in of consumer goods and support for digital consumption and AI-related sectors [1] Group 1: Policy Initiatives - The NDRC plans to implement a "combination punch" to enhance consumption, focusing on policies for trade-in of consumer goods and accelerating the rollout of policies in emerging sectors like digital consumption and AI [1] - The Ministry of Commerce is set to introduce several policies in September aimed at expanding service consumption, utilizing fiscal and financial tools to enhance service supply capabilities [1] Group 2: Market Performance - From January to July this year, China's service retail sales grew by 5.2% year-on-year, with the proportion of service consumption continuing to rise [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The CSI Consumer 50 Index, composed of 50 large-scale, high-quality consumer companies, focuses on core consumption sectors such as food and beverages and home appliances, with these two sectors accounting for approximately 75% of the index [1] - The index currently has a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 17.2, which is at the 6th percentile since its inception in 2019, indicating significant investment value [1] - The E Fund Consumer ETF (159798) tracks this index, providing investors with an efficient way to allocate resources to leading consumer companies and capitalize on sector growth opportunities [1]

Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 1.339 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.16% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 31.2508 million yuan, a decline of 45.32% compared to the same period last year [3] Group 2: Domestic Market Conditions - Domestic consumer demand remains weak, leading to a decrease in the procurement needs of existing downstream customers for shoe and bag leather [4] - The company is actively adjusting sales channels and expanding into internet brand customers, resulting in growth for certain clients [4] Group 3: Overseas Market Expansion - The company entered the adidas supply chain in the first half of 2024, with revenue contributions remaining stable [4] - New partnerships with brands like ZARA have been established, and the company is expanding its overseas factories in Indonesia and Vietnam to meet local supply demands [4][5] - The gross margin for overseas products is higher than that of domestic sales, which is expected to enhance profitability as overseas sales increase [4] Group 4: Automotive Interior Leather Performance - The subsidiary, Hongxing Automotive Leather, achieved a revenue of 375 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.95% [6] - The net profit for this segment was 7.65654 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 30.91% [6] - The company is collaborating with various automotive brands, including NIO and Jianghuai Automobile, to supply high-end interior leather products [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" (maintained) [1][7] Core Views - The company has achieved a revenue of 1.38 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.39%, and a net profit of 117 million yuan, up 7.53% year-on-year [3] - The company is experiencing resilience in its main operations, with continuous product innovation in the C-end market, including new flavors and product lines [6][7] - The company is actively diversifying its channel network, with significant growth in direct sales and emerging sales channels [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 2.61 billion yuan, 2.94 billion yuan, and 3.33 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.65 yuan, 0.73 yuan, and 0.83 yuan [5][7] - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 is 33.67%, an increase of 1.60 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin remains stable at 9.63% [6] - The company is positioned as a leader in the Western-style compound and light cooking solutions industry, with potential for growth in a high-demand market [7] Financial Ratios and Valuation - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 20.9, 18.5, and 16.3 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [9] - The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with a debt-to-asset ratio of 23.6% and a current ratio projected to improve to 4.0 by 2027 [8][9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For IH2509, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is oscillation with a slight upward trend, and the overall view is upward, supported by positive policy expectations [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is oscillation with a slight upward trend, the medium - term view is upward, and the overall view is upward. Although the stock market had a technical adjustment yesterday due to profit - taking of some funds, the previous rebound was supported by policy - side positive expectations and loose liquidity in the capital market. However, as the stock index has risen continuously, the valuation has reached a relatively high historical quantile level, and the short - term profit - taking willingness of funds has increased. In general, the stock index will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **IH2509**: Short - term (within a week) is oscillation, medium - term (two weeks to one month) is upward, intraday is oscillation with a slight upward trend, and the overall view is upward. The core logic is that positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **IF, IH, IC, IM**: Yesterday, the stock indexes oscillated and declined. The total turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 3197.8 billion yuan, an increase of 488 billion yuan compared with the previous day. The afternoon decline was due to the profit - taking of some stocks that had risen significantly. The previous rebound was supported by policy - side positive expectations and loose capital liquidity. Anti - involution and consumption - promotion policies optimize the supply - demand structure, promote the gentle recovery of price indexes, and drive a positive cycle. The capital market has loose liquidity, and the willingness to allocate funds to the stock market has increased. However, the valuation has reached a relatively high historical quantile level, and the short - term profit - taking willingness of funds has increased. In the short term, the stock index will mainly oscillate and consolidate [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][2][1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 8.52 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7%, with a net profit of 2.03 billion RMB, also up 7% year-on-year. The core net profit increased by 15% year-on-year, aligning with the company's guidance for double-digit growth for the full year [1][2] - The interim dividend payout ratio based on core net profit reached 100%, exceeding the company's guidance of a 60% base payout ratio for the year, indicating enhanced shareholder returns [1][2] - The shopping center segment continues to show strong operational and performance metrics, with retail sales increasing by 21% year-on-year to 122 billion RMB, and rental income from owners rising by 17% year-on-year [3][2] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company achieved a steady revenue growth with property and commercial channels showing year-on-year increases of 1% and 15% respectively. The overall gross margin improved by 3.1 percentage points to 37.1% [2][3] - The gross margin for the property channel slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 18.8%, while the commercial channel's gross margin increased by 5.2 percentage points to 66.1% due to cost reductions from digital strategies [2][3] Shopping Center Performance - The company opened 4 new shopping centers and signed contracts for 6 third-party shopping centers, bringing the total to 125 operational centers, with 53 ranking first in local retail sales [3][2] - The company anticipates a revenue growth of 19% for shopping centers in 2025, with an expected gross margin increase of 4.4 percentage points to 77.0% [3][2] Property Management Segment - The basic property management segment saw revenue growth of 9% and 15% for residential and urban space respectively, focusing on high-quality projects and exiting loss-making ones [4][2] - Community value-added services revenue decreased by 33% year-on-year, but the gross margin improved by 9.5 percentage points to 40.4% due to a shift towards a platform-based, light-asset model [4][2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts revenue forecasts for non-owner value-added services downwards while increasing the gross margin forecast for shopping centers. The core EPS estimates for 2025-2027 are maintained at 1.77, 2.01, and 2.28 RMB respectively [5][2] - The target price is set at 46.60 HKD, reflecting an increase from the previous target of 39.81 HKD, based on a 25 PE ratio [5][2]