食品饮料行业 超配（维持） 食品饮料行业双周报（2025/11/28-2025/12/11） 飞天批价波动，关注需求复苏进程 食品饮料（申万）指数走势 资料来源：同花顺,东莞证券研究所 相关报告 证 券 研 究 报 告 2025 年 12 月 12 日 投资要点： ◼ 风险提示：原材料价格波动、产品提价不及预期、渠道开展不及预期、 行业竞争加剧、食品安全风险、宏观经济波动风险等。 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 行 业 周 报 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523020001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： huangdongyi@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：黄冬祎 行 业 研 究 ◼ 行情回顾：2025年11月28日-2025年12月11日，SW食品饮料行业指数整 体下降3.45%，板块涨幅位居申万一级行业第二十九位，跑输同期沪深 300指数约4.27个百分点。细分板块中，所有细分板块均跑输沪深300指 数。 ◼ 行业周观点：飞天批价波动，关注需求复苏进程。2025年中央经济 ...

Group 1 - The liquor industry experienced a surge, with the major consumption index rising by 0.35% and key stocks like Gujing Gongjiu and Meihua Biotech increasing by over 1% [1] - The National Retail Innovation Development Conference highlighted the retail sector's crucial role in boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand, which is essential for economic recovery [1] - Major liquor companies, Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, announced interim dividend distributions totaling approximately 40 billion yuan, with payments scheduled for December 18 and 19 [1] Group 2 - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten stocks in the major consumption index accounted for 68.82% of the index, with liquor being the largest sector, representing over 39% of the index weight [2] - The consumption ETF managed by Harvest (512600) tracks the major consumption index, which includes leading companies across various sectors, emphasizing the importance of liquor in the consumer market [2] Group 3 - Investors can also consider the consumption ETF linked fund (009180) to capitalize on the consumption recovery trend [3]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the food and beverage industry experienced a slowdown in 2025, with a 5.3% decline in the sector, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 19.4 percentage points [1][25] - The soft drink sector maintained relative strength, while the snack industry showed mixed performance, with leading companies continuing to expand [1][20] - Consumer confidence remained low, with the disposable income growth rate for urban residents at 4.4% year-on-year, reflecting weak internal demand [12][20] Group 2 - Looking ahead to 2026, the report identifies structural opportunities in the consumer goods sector, driven by channel differentiation and supply upgrades [2][29] - The report emphasizes the need for consumer goods companies to adapt to new retail channels and enhance product differentiation to meet evolving consumer preferences [2][29] - The anticipated recovery in consumer confidence and macroeconomic policies is expected to shift consumer focus from extreme price competition to a preference for quality and added value [2][29] Group 3 - Investment recommendations for 2026 include focusing on high-quality and differentiated products, with specific companies highlighted such as Babi Foods and Wanchen Group [3][4] - The report suggests that companies with strong performance recovery expectations, such as Anjui Foods and Yihai International, should be considered for investment [3][4] - High dividend or comprehensive shareholder return stocks, such as Yili Group, are also recommended for investors [3][4] Group 4 - The report provides earnings forecasts and investment ratings for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for companies like Yanjing Beer and Nongfu Spring [4][5] - The food and beverage sector's overall revenue and profit growth rates have weakened, with the industry experiencing a cumulative revenue growth of only 0.3% and a profit decline of 4.5% in the first three quarters of 2025 [20][22] - The snack sector's revenue growth was primarily driven by the expansion of Wanchen Group, while other segments faced challenges [20][22]

Group 1: Market Overview - A-shares showed divergence with major consumer indices experiencing slight pullbacks, as the Consumption ETF (159928) fell by 0.38% with a trading volume exceeding 250 million yuan, while it received a net inflow of 16 million units during the session [1] - The Hong Kong stock market also saw a minor pullback in the new consumption sector, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption 50 ETF (159268) declining by 0.32% and a trading volume over 65 million yuan, marking a fourth consecutive day of significant net inflow [4] Group 2: Alcohol Industry Insights - The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has dropped to 1,500 yuan per bottle, marking a 20% year-on-year decline and a 40% decrease compared to two years ago, while Wuliangye is set to reduce its dealer invoice price from 1,019 yuan to 900 yuan starting in 2026 [3][8] - Analysts suggest that the price adjustments in high-end liquor, particularly by leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye, may signal a broader industry correction, potentially leading to a new round of "deflating bubbles" in the sector [9][10] Group 3: Consumer Sector Valuation - The Consumption ETF (159928) is currently trading at a TTM P/E ratio of 19.32, which is in the 2.84% percentile of the past decade, indicating a high valuation attractiveness compared to historical levels [6] - As the year-end approaches, market trends may shift towards undervalued stocks, with seasonal patterns suggesting a potential change in investment styles during Q4 [6] Group 4: Economic Indicators - November CPI data showed a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, driven by a rebound in food prices, particularly fresh vegetables, which rose by 7.2% month-on-month [11][12] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, remained stable with a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, indicating ongoing consumer demand recovery amidst economic adjustments [12][13] Group 5: ETF Composition - The top ten holdings of the Consumption ETF (159928) account for over 68.55% of its weight, with four leading liquor companies comprising 32% of the total, alongside significant positions in pork production and other consumer staples [13][14]

2025.12. 10 力度,深证成指表现主要受益于科技板块和消费板块的走强,创业板指"探底回升"特征,反 映出科技成长板块的韧性。 433家 HK 2841 家下跌 涨跌停比 :12 市场呈现涨跌互现、分化加剧格局。政策驱动 (海南封关、消费复苏) 与事件驱动 (国际银价 上涨)是核心逻辑,海南板块、零售板块、贵金 属板块、算力硬件领涨,银行板块、培育钻石、 有机硅、光伏设备有所回调。 两市成交额 ○万亿元▼ 6.56% 两市成交缩量,市场交投情绪有所降温。一方面 市场可能处于短期冲高后的调整期,资金获利 了结意愿增强;另一方面市场热点分散(如海南 板块、零售概念、算力硬件等板块轮动),缺乏 持续性主线,资金难以形成集中流入,交投活 跃度下降。 餐金情绪 主力资金净流出 3 3.68 Zizz 散户资金净流入 机构谨慎调仓,资金流出方向主要集中于科技、周期及消费电子等板块,商贸零售、汽车等板块吸引主力 资金布局,科技板块内部分化,AI应用端仍有资金承接,算力基础设施遭抛售,显示资金向业绩确定性更 高的方向迁移。散户短期投机与长期观望并存,资金活跃于零售、汽车等消费板块,黄金股吸引部分资金 流入,对算力、芯片 ...

Group 1 - The A-share retail sector continues to show strong performance, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up, indicating high market confidence in the retail industry's growth prospects [1][3] - Notable stocks that reached the limit up include Yonghui Supermarket, Central Plaza, Meikailong, and others, with Dongbai Group achieving a four-day limit up and Yonghui Supermarket a three-day limit up [1][2] - The National Retail Innovation Development Conference held on December 9-10 is a significant catalyst for the retail sector's strength, with the Ministry of Commerce emphasizing the importance of retail in fostering a complete domestic demand system [3][4] Group 2 - The retail industry has made substantial contributions to consumption and investment since the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a projected 3.5% year-on-year growth in national social retail sales in 2024, showcasing strong resilience [3] - Different retail formats, including convenience stores and supermarkets, have shown positive year-on-year growth rates in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a collaborative development among various retail formats [3] - The Ministry of Commerce highlighted the need for improvements in network layout, supply-demand matching, and the balance between online and offline operations, advocating for high-quality goods and services to attract consumers [3][4] Group 3 - Analysts predict that consumer recovery will be the main theme for the retail industry by 2026, suggesting a focus on high-quality segments with both short-term recovery potential and long-term growth [4] - The successful conclusion of the National Retail Innovation Development Conference is expected to provide new development opportunities for retail enterprises and favorable investment targets for investors [4] - Investors are encouraged to focus on retail companies with core competitiveness and long-term development potential to share in the industry's growth dividends [4]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperforming the Market" [3][20]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is entering a phase of rapid performance clearing, with demand expected to show weak recovery as policy pressures ease. The industry is currently at a low valuation, and pessimistic expectations are fully priced in, indicating a clearer direction for future industry clearing [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-growth consumer goods sectors, where new products and channels are expected to drive market interest and valuation premiums for "scarce" growth targets [2]. - The report highlights the strategic responses of leading companies like Shanxi Fenjiu and Wuliangye to industry adjustments, focusing on brand value maintenance and consumer-driven strategies [3]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is expected to see a weak recovery in demand due to easing policy pressures, with leading companies like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu being recommended for their stable pricing and strong dividend yields [2]. - Shanxi Fenjiu's 2025 global dealer conference outlined a focus on national expansion, youth engagement, and precise consumer targeting, indicating a proactive approach to market share growth during industry adjustments [3]. - Wuliangye has adjusted its 2025 investment plan, reducing total investment while increasing brand promotion efforts, aiming to stabilize pricing and maintain brand integrity amid market discussions about price reductions [3]. Consumer Goods Sector - The report suggests focusing on high-growth consumer goods, with companies like Wancheng Group and Dongpeng Beverage showing promising growth trajectories [2]. - The consumer goods sector is characterized by ongoing innovation and new channel development, which are expected to attract market interest and valuation premiums [2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in Moutai's wholesale prices has temporarily suppressed the performance of the sector, but potential policy-driven consumption catalysts in December are noteworthy. Current valuations in the food and beverage sector are at relatively low historical levels, indicating clear bottom logic for quality assets like liquor. The focus on three main lines in the consumer goods sector presents structural opportunities, with recommendations to continue investing in liquor and consumer goods with specific logic. It is expected that the consumer goods sector will outperform liquor, with liquor demand stabilizing as the market awaits the Spring Festival [1][14]. Group 1: Market Performance - This week, the A-share market rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3902.81 points, a weekly change of 0.37%. The food and beverage sector experienced a weekly decline of 1.90%, underperforming the market by 2.27 percentage points, ranking 30th among Shenwan's primary industry classifications [2][15]. - Among the various sub-sectors of food and beverage, the performance from highest to lowest was as follows: pre-processed foods (+1.51%), beer (+1.20%), soft drinks (+0.43%), meat products (-0.11%), health products (-0.17%), seasoning and fermented products (-0.32%), snacks (-0.73%), dairy products (-1.74%), liquor (-2.59%), and other alcoholic beverages (-3.06%) [2][15]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Clear signals of industry bottoming are evident, presenting opportunities for undervalued investments. Liquor demand is in a bottoming phase, with sales still under pressure but gradually recovering compared to Q3. Liquor companies are expected to continue the trend of performance clearing, actively alleviating market burdens. The liquor sector's valuation is at historical lows, providing strong bottom configuration value, while potential consumption policy catalysts are also noteworthy [3][16]. - For consumer goods, focus on three structural opportunities: 1) Improvement in the restaurant supply chain and supermarket customization, with a reduction in price wars and lighter channel inventory burdens as the traditional peak season approaches. 2) The health and functional product segment is experiencing high growth, with leading oat brands benefiting from the "oat+" health trend. 3) The price cycle is nearing a turning point, with expected improvements in upstream profitability as raw milk prices stabilize [3][16]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - In the liquor sector, the recent global distributor conference for Fenjiu emphasized the certainty of future growth, with expectations for the domestic economy to stabilize and recover, supported by policy and consumption revival. This is anticipated to lead to a dual leap in cultural value and market scale for liquor as a cyclical industry [4][17]. - The average milk price in major production areas was 3.02 yuan/kg in the last week of November, down 0.1 yuan/kg, indicating a continued bottoming of raw milk prices. The first batch of deep-processed products from Mengniu has passed testing and is expected to contribute to performance improvements in the dairy sector as production capacity increases [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies such as Shenzhou International and Huali Group, with specific price-to-earnings (PE) ratios projected for 2026 [9][38]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry is experiencing a weak recovery in the Chinese consumer market, while the U.S. and European markets show steady growth. The overall industry inventory is considered healthy, with expectations for upstream order growth driven by stable downstream replenishment [31][32]. - The report highlights the strong performance of direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in China, where DTC revenue growth is driven by e-commerce [18][23]. - Key investment themes include a focus on high-quality stocks in apparel manufacturing, brand apparel with stable growth or reversal logic, and strong alpha candidates in the gold and jewelry sector [21][22][33]. Summary by Sections Weekly Topic - PVH Group reported a 2% year-over-year revenue increase for FY2025Q3, reaching $2.294 billion, with a notable decline in gross margin due to increased tariffs and a challenging promotional environment [1][14]. Regional Performance - Asia-Pacific: FY2025Q3 revenue decreased by 1% year-over-year, but DTC business showed low single-digit growth, particularly in China [18][23]. - EMEA: Revenue grew by 4% year-over-year, but DTC and wholesale businesses faced declines due to a weak consumer environment [23]. - Americas: Revenue increased by 2%, driven by adjustments in the women's product line, although direct sales faced challenges [23]. Investment Themes - **Apparel Manufacturing**: Recommendations include Shenzhou International (PE of 12x) and Huali Group (PE of 18x), with expectations for improved core customer orders in 2026 [21][31]. - **Brand Apparel**: Focus on companies like Tmall and Anta Sports, with PE ratios of 15x and 16x respectively, and a recommendation for Bosideng (PE of 14x) [21][32]. - **Gold and Jewelry**: Companies like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Hong Ki are highlighted for their strong product differentiation and brand strength, with PE ratios of 17x and 21x respectively [22][33]. Recent Reports - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective in the apparel manufacturing sector, with expectations for revenue growth exceeding 10% CAGR from 2025 to 2026 for Shenzhou International [34][38].

Group 1: Core Insights - The report indicates that Chinese household wealth and consumption are showing signs of recovery, with stable income and increasing consumer confidence, particularly in first-tier cities [1][3] - The average annual income per household is reported at 55,500 yuan, with wage income constituting 62.1% of total income [12][13] - Housing remains the core asset for families, with nearly 50% owning a home and over 56% of families being mortgage-free [12][13] Group 2: Income and Wealth Structure - Income diversification is evident, with approximately 25.9% of families relying on multiple income sources, including wages, business, and property [12] - First-tier cities show significantly higher household incomes, particularly among middle-aged groups, reflecting advantages in employment quality and salary levels [12][13] - The financial asset allocation is becoming more diversified, with cash and deposits still dominant, but first-tier city households are increasingly investing in stocks and funds, with a holding rate exceeding 53% [12][13] Group 3: Consumption Trends - The average monthly consumption expenditure per household is 3,004 yuan, with first-tier cities averaging 4,442 yuan, indicating a clear regional disparity in consumption patterns [2][12] - Young consumers are active in entertainment, dining, and durable goods, while middle-aged consumers focus on education and healthcare expenditures [2][14] - Households with property exhibit stronger consumption capabilities across all age groups, highlighting the significant impact of housing assets on consumer confidence [15] Group 4: Debt and Financial Health - The overall debt situation is healthy, with nearly half of households having no debt, and a low percentage of high-debt households [2][12] - The report notes a U-shaped distribution of household debt, with 49.2% of families having no debt and only 10.8% with a debt ratio exceeding 100% [12][13] - Stable housing prices positively influence consumption, with the report suggesting that a halt in price declines can boost consumer willingness to spend [2][12] Group 5: Future Consumption Expectations - Consumer confidence is improving, with about 69% of households planning to maintain their current consumption levels, influenced by employment stability [2][16] - The report highlights that flexible employment and social security systems are crucial for enhancing consumer confidence and spending [19] - There is a notable trend of prioritizing the reduction of discretionary spending, particularly in entertainment and dining, during periods of income uncertainty [17][18] Group 6: Policy Recommendations - The report suggests optimizing housing finance structures to alleviate the financial burden of home purchases, which currently limits spending in other areas [18] - It recommends the introduction of inclusive financial products to guide household savings into stable investments, thereby supporting the real economy [18] - Enhancing employment security and providing targeted consumption incentives are also proposed to stimulate spending across all age groups [19]