智通财经APP获悉，美联储鲍威尔在最新新闻发布会上重申，美联储目前最关心的依旧是"让经济稳健 运行并保持物价稳定"。面对记者转述总统特朗普长期对"利率迟迟不降"的批评，鲍威尔拒绝正面回 应，只表示："这对我们而言并不复杂，联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的所有成员都希望看到一个稳固的 经济和稳定的物价，这就是全部重点。" 与此同时，FOMC将今明两年失业率预测小幅上调，并首次在公开场合提及"挑战性场景"，当通胀回落 速度慢于就业市场降温时，联储或陷入目标冲突。"若出现这种情况，我们会考虑离双重目标各有多 远，以及各自回归正常的时间维度。" 随着通胀、失业率双升的可能性增加，市场对滞涨担忧升温。JanusHenderson投资组合经理DanSiluk指 出，通胀预测上修意味着激进降息空间受限，而若就业继续走软，美联储或被迫在两难中权衡。 鲍威尔则给出了"静观其变"的基调："在进一步了解经济路径之前，我们拥有充足的耐心。"FOMC维持 联邦基金利率在4.25%–4.5%区间不变，并保留"年内两次降息"的前瞻指引，但鲍威尔明言时点尚无定 论。 鲍威尔警告，4月初宣布的大规模关税仍在链式传导："关税渗透到消费者端需要时 ...

关税再次生变，预计短期震荡偏弱 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 研究员：袁 棋 投资咨询号：Z0019013 第一部分 核心观点 第二部分 氧化铝-产业基本面 第三部分 电解铝-产业基本面 目 录 核心观点 宏观：美国5月芝加哥PMI录得40.5，远低于预期值45和前值44.6，5月一年期通胀率预期终值录得6.6%，低于预期值7.1%，但仍属于偏高位置，滞 涨概率加大；国内汽车价格战遭到官方制止，库存偏高经济偏弱的情况下，有待相关刺激政策出台；特朗普称将把进口钢铁和铝关税翻倍至50%，多 国进行对等关税回应，贸易关税不确定性再次增强。 氧化铝-产业基本面总结： 电解铝-产业基本面总结： 供给：4月，在产产能环比减少390万吨，开工率大幅下滑；矿石端，国内到港量维持正常，几内亚出港量暂维持正常 进口： 2025年4月中国氧化铝净出口24.93万吨，环比小幅减少，连续13个月净出口；进口转为小幅盈利 需求：电解铝在产产能持续增加且维持高位，短期氧化铝需求相对持稳 利润：氧化铝目前冶炼成本在每吨2997，每吨盈利313元，成本小幅上移，利润小幅走阔；烧碱价格最新价3700元/吨，周度环比上涨50元/吨 ...

Economic Indicators - The US services PMI unexpectedly contracted in May, dropping from 51.6 in April to 49.9, below the market expectation of 52[2] - The manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.2 to 48.5, also below the market expectation of 49.5[2] - The new orders index for services plummeted from 52.3 to 46.4, indicating a significant weakening in demand[2] Inflation and Price Pressures - The price index for services rose from 65.1 to 68.7, marking the highest expansion rate since late 2022[2] - The manufacturing price index remained high at 69.4, indicating persistent inflationary pressures in the US[2] Economic Growth Projections - The projected GDP growth rates for 2023 are expected to decline from 2.1% in Q1 to 1.8% in Q2, 1.3% in Q3, and 1% in Q4[2] - The PCE inflation is forecasted to rise from 2.5% in Q1 to 3% in Q3 and 2.9% in Q4[2] Policy Environment - The policy environment is expected to remain unfriendly in the next three months, with the White House likely to continue pressuring trading partners and the Federal Reserve possibly pausing interest rate cuts[2] - Improvement in the policy environment is anticipated in Q4, with potential agreements with major trading partners and a return to interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[2]

原油方面： 隔夜原油以反弹为主，整体上涨幅度有限，但技术形态上走好的迹象，短期内可能会继续反弹。但基本面上的疲弱，可能会限 制油价的上行空间。 欧佩克+敲定2027年生产基准，本周末将讨论7月增产计划，欧佩克+已同意将2025年的原油产量水平作为2027年的基准。同时欧 佩克+将授权欧佩克秘书处制定一项机制，以评估参与国的最大可持续生产能力，作为2027年生产基线的参考。 黄金方面： 隔夜黄金继续回落调整，小周期走势确实会引起市场的忧虑，担心黄金牛市可能结束，但从大周期来看，整体上升趋势依旧完 好，当前并未出现大周期走坏的信号。 美联储五月会议纪要披露，此次会议首次将"关税冲击"纳入讨论。与会者认为，美国的关税上调幅度和范围远超他们的预期， 造成美国经济的不确定性非常高，即就业市场变冷、经济下行和通胀上行的风险同时上升。 受关税政策的冲击，美联储下调了今明两年的经济增长预期，预计贸易政策将导致美国生产率增长放缓，从而降低未来几年潜 在的GDP增长。 百利好特约智昇研究市场策略师鹏程认为，美联储上调了通胀预期，下降了经济增长预期，意味着美国可能进入滞涨。本次会 议并未给出明确的降息信号，美联储的货币政策路径可能 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of stagflation, characterized by the coexistence of high inflation and high unemployment, which challenges traditional economic theories and policies [2][9]. Group 1: Definition and Characteristics of Stagflation - Stagflation is defined as an economic condition where stagnation (slow or negative growth) and inflation (rising prices) occur simultaneously [3]. - It disrupts the traditional trade-off between inflation and unemployment, leading to a complex economic environment [2]. Group 2: Causes of Stagflation - Supply shocks, such as sudden increases in oil prices, are classic causes of stagflation, leading to higher costs and reduced economic activity [2][7]. - Poor economic policies, including overly loose monetary and fiscal measures, can exacerbate inflation without addressing stagnation [2][7]. - Other contributing factors include restrictive production policies, wage-price spirals, and self-fulfilling inflation expectations [7]. Group 3: Historical Context and Market Reactions - The 1970s in the U.S. serve as a historical example of stagflation, marked by high inflation rates reaching nearly 15% and unemployment rates exceeding 8% [6][8]. - The stock market suffered significantly during this period, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average showing little to no growth, and many previously popular stocks collapsing [6][8]. - Bond markets also faced challenges, with rising interest rates leading to falling bond prices and negative real yields [8][12]. Group 4: Policy Responses to Stagflation - Initial policy responses included price and wage controls, which failed to resolve underlying issues and led to market distortions [8]. - The later approach involved aggressive monetary tightening under Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, which successfully reduced inflation but resulted in a severe economic recession [8][9]. - The experience of the 1970s highlights the dilemma policymakers face: stimulating the economy can worsen inflation, while tightening can deepen stagnation [9]. Group 5: Implications for Current Economic Conditions - Understanding the causes and historical responses to stagflation is crucial for analyzing current economic conditions in the U.S. and globally [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. economy is facing multiple risk factors, including geopolitical tensions, expanding fiscal deficits, and inflation pressures, as stated by JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon [3] - Dimon mentioned that the current Federal Reserve's wait-and-see approach is wise, suggesting that they should continue to observe the situation before making decisions [3] - There is a growing concern among policymakers that high inflation and high unemployment could occur simultaneously, making stagflation a more realistic risk [3] Group 2 - The COMEX gold price has increased, currently trading at $3331.70 per ounce, with a rise of 0.46%, having reached a high of $3346.80 and a low of $3316.30 today [1][3] - Short-term resistance levels for COMEX gold are identified at $3356-$3366, while support levels are noted at $3168-$3176 [3]

智通财经APP获悉，以鸽派立场而著名的日本央行政策委员会成员野口旭(Asahi Noguchi)周四表示，没 有必要对日本央行缩减债券购买规模的计划做出重大调整。他表示："目前没有必要对现行计划做出任 何重大改变。央行需要从更长远的角度审视2026年4月以后的计划。" 周三，日本央行结束了与市场参与者的一系列会议。这些会议将帮助日本央行决定以多快的速度缩减购 债规模。日本当局将在一个月后公布2026年4月以后的购债指导方针。 日本央行目前每季度削减4000亿美元(约合28以美元)的债券购买量，到2026年春季，月度债券购买量将 降至2.9万亿日元左右。自2023年11月以来，日本央行持有的债券规模已经下降了21万亿日元。 不过，市场已经开始担忧，日本央行缩减购债规模严重冲击需求，导致日本国债价格大幅下跌。据悉， 在周二的日本政府债券拍卖中，平均投标倍数从上月的2.96降至2.5;其中，20年期日本国债的投标倍数 降至2012年8月以来的最低水平。另一个显示需求疲软的信号是"尾差"(即平均中标价与最低中标价的差 距)达到1.14，为自1987年以来最长。 野口旭称："我认为，对未来的货币政策采取谨慎乐观的态度是 ...

美联储哈玛克：认为滞涨的结果可能成为未来的主要情景。 ...

Group 1 - The CEO of JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, warned that the market and central banks are underestimating the risks posed by the record U.S. fiscal deficit, trade tariffs, and geopolitical tensions [1] - Dimon noted that while the stock market has rebounded since April, this optimism does not accurately reflect the real risks facing the economy, emphasizing the significant fiscal deficit and the complacency of central banks [1] - He expressed concerns that the market's expectations for S&P 500 corporate earnings are overly optimistic, predicting that earnings growth forecasts could drop from around 12% at the beginning of the year to 0% in six months [1] Group 2 - JPMorgan's investment banking co-head, Troy Rohrbaugh, indicated that the bank's investment banking revenue is expected to decline in the mid-teens percentage range year-over-year due to corporate clients being in a "wait-and-see" mode regarding mergers and acquisitions [2] - The potential succession of Jamie Dimon as CEO has become a focal point, with Dimon reiterating that if he serves another four years, followed by two years as executive chairman, it would be a significant duration [2] - Marianne Lake, head of consumer banking at JPMorgan, had the longest speaking time during the executive presentations, positioning her as a likely successor to Dimon, especially after COO Jennifer Piepszak stated she would not pursue the CEO position [2]

美国商务部当日早间发布的数据显示，美国4月份新房开工数量年率为136.1万套，略低于市场预期的 136.2万套，但高于3月份修订后的133.9万套。同期，美国4月份新房建设许可数量年率为141.2万套，低 于市场预期的145万套和3月份修订后的148.1万套。 哈里斯金融集团执行合伙人杰米·考克斯（Jamie Cox）说，市场目前在重新定价美国出现滞涨的风险。 对那些认为关税将立即导致通胀大幅上涨并认为滞涨是基本预测情形的人而言，其观点尚未得到数据的 支持。 美国消费者可能感到担忧，但并没像想象的那样停止消费。 新华财经纽约5月16日电 由于投资者整体保持乐观预期，纽约股市三大股指16日高开，早盘整体窄幅盘 整，午后涨幅扩大，收盘时纽约股市三大股指均上涨。 截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日上涨331.99点，收于42654.74点，涨幅为0.78%；标 准普尔500种股票指数上涨41.45点，收于5958.38点，涨幅为0.70%；纳斯达克综合指数上涨98.78点，收 于19211.10点，涨幅为0.52%。 板块方面，标普500指数十一大板块十涨一跌。医疗板块和公用事业板块分别以1.96%和1. ...