今年以来，中国稀土磁体出口累计达45290吨，同比下降5.2%。出口量在8月达到七个月高点。 【文/观察者网 柳白】 路透社11月20日报道注意到，根据中国海关发布的最新数据，10月中国稀土磁体出口量环比下降 5.2%，连续第二个月下滑，但对美国的出货量飙升至9个月以来的最高水平。 作为全球最大的稀土磁体生产国和出口国，中国10月份稀土磁体出口量达5473吨，这一数字低于9月的 5774吨，但较2024年同期的4725吨增长15.8%。 然而，对美国的出口在10月份环比激增56.1%，达到656吨，为今年1月以来最高。 业内消息人士称，中国已开始设计新的稀土许可制度，可能会加快出货速度，但这不太可能达到华盛顿 所希望的完全取消限制的程度。 按国家来看，德国、美国、韩国、越南和印度是上个月中国稀土磁体出口量最大的五个目的地。 按国家来看，最多的对德国出口同比增长55.9%，达到1118吨，对美国出口排在第二。第三名是对韩国 出口，出口量为569吨，同比增长31.3%。 日媒尤其注意对日出口情况：10月对日本的出口量同比增长30.2%，达到226吨。然而，若将稀土磁体 的半成品——磁粉和合金等包括在内，则同比下降 ...

Group 1: New Materials Industry - The rare earth magnetic materials industry experienced a decline of 4.08% this week, underperforming the benchmark by 3 percentage points [2] - The industry valuation (TTM P/E) fell by 3.32 times to 73.9 times, currently at 87.2% of its historical percentile [2] - Prices of rare earth concentrates showed a slight decline, with mixed carbonate rare earth ore prices dropping by 2.78% [3] - Praseodymium and neodymium prices peaked and then fell, with praseodymium oxide average price decreasing by 1.8% [3] - Dysprosium prices continued to decline, with an average decrease of 2.58% for dysprosium oxide [4] - The price of sintered neodymium-iron-boron N35 decreased by 1.45%, indicating weak demand and limited order releases [4] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The short-term prices in the rare earth sector are driven by market sentiment, with supply expected to decrease before the end of the year, while demand remains positive [5] - The overall valuation and performance levels are supported by loose liquidity and industrial policies, but high valuations may face pressure due to declining market risk appetite [5] - The industry maintains an "overweight" rating, with expectations for price recovery and improved market conditions following the easing of export controls [6] - Focus on upstream rare earth resource companies is recommended due to expected supply contraction and strategic value positioning [6] - Downstream magnetic material companies are also expected to benefit from price recovery, particularly those with strong customer structures and new growth opportunities [6] Group 3: Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage industry saw a decline of 0.56% from November 3 to November 7, while outperforming the broader market indices [8] - The industry valuation is currently at a low level, with a PE ratio of 22X, ranking 23rd among primary industries [9] - The CPI showed a mild increase of 0.2% in October, with food prices declining by 2.9% [10][11] - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on leading companies with stable demand and strong risk resistance, as well as those innovating in new products and channels [12] - The food and beverage sector maintains a "buy" rating, emphasizing the potential for recovery in the current low valuation environment [12]

证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 16 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 稀土磁材行业周报 1 本周行业涨跌幅及价格统计时间区间为 2025/11/10 至 2025/11/14，下同。 2 估值历史分位数计算使用数据区间为 2012/02/17 至 2025/11/14，下同。 敬请阅读末页之重要声明 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -18 -1 47 绝对收益 -16 10 61 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：王攀 证书编号：S0500520120001 Tel：(8621) 50293524 Email：wangpan2@xcsc.com 本周行业继续调整，产业链价格短期转弱 相关研究： | 《本周行业表现延续弱势，轻重稀土价格走 | | | --- | --- | | 势分化》 | 20251109 | | 《本周板块小幅下跌，产业链价格回升》 | | | 20251103 | | 据 Wind 数据，本周1稀土磁材行业下跌 4.08%，跑输基准（沪深 300） 3pct。行业估值（市盈率 TTM）回落 3.32x 至 73.9x， ...

美国众议院的这些指责显然颠倒黑白。他们从未提到，中国为何要动用稀土这张王牌。其实，正是美国在特朗普执政时期发起了对中国的关税战争，尽管中 国一再劝解，希望通过和平方式实现互利共赢，但美国坚持对中国发动贸易攻击。面对美国的不听劝告，中国最终被迫采取反制措施，并在适当的时候拿出 了稀土这一"王牌"，迫使美国回到谈判桌上，才有了中美之间的短期"休战"。实际上，稀土这一反制手段并非中国主动出击，而是美国的咄咄逼人促使了中 国的回应。那么，美国现在又有什么资格指责中国呢？ 讽刺的是，这一策略其实是美国此前采取过的一种做法。美国在化学品和芯片的出口控制中，曾经使用了类似的简化供应体系。如今，中国将这一策略借鉴 并加以运用，用于应对美国。这种做法可谓是"以其人之道还治其人之身"，美国似乎被自己的做法反噬。 当然，这个新供应体系是否能够顺利实施，还需要看美国的态度。如果在这一年暂时休战期结束后，美国发现自己仍然无法解决稀土问题，那么美国很可能 会回到谈判桌上，接受中国的条件。届时，这个新供应体系将成为中国在谈判中一个重要的筹码。如果美国仍然坚持不认输，这个体系将会严格执行，以此 来打击美国的嚣张气焰。 对于中国的这一做法，美 ...

Core Insights - TSMC's chairman, Wei Zhejia, has signaled a critical shortage of rare earth materials, indicating a plea for assistance from mainland China, which reflects deeper geopolitical tensions in the semiconductor industry [1][3] - China's dominance in rare earth processing and technology creates a significant leverage point in the global semiconductor supply chain, with 92.3% of global refining capacity and 60% of core patents held by China [1][2] - The reliance on rare earth materials, particularly neodymium-iron-boron magnets used in advanced EUV lithography machines, poses a substantial risk to TSMC's production capabilities, especially as the demand for advanced chips increases [2][3] Industry Analysis - The U.S. has struggled to achieve rare earth independence, with 90% of materials from the Mountain Pass mine still needing to be processed in China, highlighting the inefficiencies and high costs of domestic production [2] - TSMC's advanced manufacturing processes are increasingly vulnerable, as the consumption of rare earth materials in 5nm chips is three times that of 14nm chips, making supply chain disruptions particularly damaging [2][3] - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with TSMC being forced to relocate advanced manufacturing to the U.S., despite higher costs, indicating a loss of operational autonomy and a response to external pressures [3][4] Strategic Implications - The rare earth crisis underscores a new paradigm in technology leadership, where control over upstream supply chains is as critical as technological prowess [4] - TSMC's predicament reflects broader challenges faced by global companies navigating geopolitical tensions, emphasizing the need for robust supply chain strategies [4]

Industry Overview Upstream - Prices of aluminum and copper in the non - ferrous metals sector have rebounded; international oil prices and liquefied natural gas prices are fluctuating [2] Midstream - In the chemical industry, PX prices are rising, while the operating rates of PTA and polyester are low; power plant coal consumption has decreased [3] Downstream - In the real estate sector, the sales of commercial housing in second - and third - tier cities have seasonally increased slightly; in the service industry, the film box office is in the off - season, and the number of domestic flights has seasonally increased slightly [3] Macroeconomic Events Production Industry - China is designing a new rare - earth export licensing system, and the Ministry of Commerce will carry out export control work on rare - earth related items in accordance with laws and regulations [1] Service Industry - In the first ten months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.9 trillion yuan, 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 14.97 trillion yuan. At the end of October, M2 balance was 335.13 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%; M1 balance was 112 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%; M0 balance was 13.55 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 10.6%. The narrowing gap between M1 and M2 indicates positive signals such as increased business activity and improved consumer demand [1] Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry | Indicator | Price | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | 2161.4 yuan/ton | 0.40% | | | Spot price of eggs | 6.5 yuan/kg | 1.25% | | | Spot price of palm oil | 8710.0 yuan/ton | 0.11% | | | Spot price of cotton | 14819.5 yuan/ton | - 0.29% | | | Average wholesale price of pork | 18.1 yuan/kg | - 0.60% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price of copper | 87301.7 yuan/ton | 1.59% | | | Spot price of zinc | 22618.0 yuan/ton | 0.63% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 21933.3 yuan/ton | 2.60% | | | Spot price of nickel | 121150.0 yuan/ton | - 0.03% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 17606.3 yuan/ton | 1.51% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price of rebar | 3133.0 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | | Spot price of iron ore | 794.7 yuan/ton | - 0.08% | | | Spot price of wire rod | 3302.5 yuan/ton | - 0.08% | | | Spot price of glass | 14.0 yuan/square meter | - 1.06% | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | 14883.3 yuan/ton | 1.82% | | | China Plastics City Price Index | 772.0 | - 0.58% | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | 58.5 dollars/barrel | - 1.86% | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | 62.7 dollars/barrel | - 1.28% | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | 4206.0 yuan/ton | - 1.91% | | | Coal price | 834.0 yuan/ton | 1.21% | | Chemical | Spot price of PTA | 4591.6 yuan/ton | 0.67% | | | Spot price of polyethylene | 6988.3 yuan/ton | 0.02% | | | Spot price of urea | 1630.0 yuan/ton | 2.03% | | | Spot price of soda ash | 1214.3 yuan/ton | 0.89% | | Real estate | Cement price index | 136.4 | - 0.16% | | | Building materials composite index | 112.3 points | 0.42% | | | Concrete price index | 90.8 points | - 0.14% | [38]

Domestic News - The Ministry of Public Security will impose a limit on passenger cars to achieve a 0-100 km/h acceleration time of no less than 5 seconds after each start [2] - The Ministry of Commerce stated that China is legally conducting export controls on rare earth-related items and is designing a new export licensing system to expedite the export process [3] - The China Automotive Technology and Research Center has categorized batteries into three types: solid-state batteries, solid-liquid hybrid batteries, and liquid batteries, and is working on establishing national standards [4] - The China Automotive Chip Innovation Alliance has formed a RISC-V working group with several automotive manufacturers to promote the large-scale application of related chips [4] International News - Tesla announced that the FSD (Full Self-Driving) supervision version will soon be launched in South Korea [5] - Waymo has launched a paid Robotaxi service on highways in key markets including San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Phoenix, with plans to expand this service to more passengers and routes in the future [6] Corporate News - Ford's CEO Jim Farley revealed that the company has 5,000 skilled worker vacancies, despite offering salaries as high as $120,000, which is nearly double the median wage for American workers [7] - Changan Automobile plans to mass-produce humanoid automotive robots by 2028, focusing on core technologies such as "brain," "energy," and "drive" [9] - Faraday Future announced that its future models will be equipped with the North American Charging Standard (NACS) interface, allowing access to over 28,000 Tesla Supercharger stations across North America, Japan, and South Korea [10] - GKN (Suzhou) Automatic Transmission Company increased its registered capital from 398 million RMB to 958 million RMB, representing a growth of approximately 141% [11] - Zhongtong Bus announced an adjustment to its share repurchase price limit to 14.90 RMB per share due to a mid-term dividend distribution [12] - Hummer Automotive Sales Service Company increased its registered capital from 100 million RMB to 400 million RMB, marking a 300% increase [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes China's commitment to maintaining an open and cooperative approach in global agricultural trade, highlighting its role as a significant participant in this sector [1] - The Ministry of Commerce has announced the outcomes of the recent China-US economic and trade consultations, which include agreements on agricultural product trade [1] - China is undertaking export control measures for rare earth elements in accordance with laws and regulations, balancing national security interests with international obligations [1]

Core Viewpoint - China is designing a new rare earth export licensing system aimed at expediting the export process while balancing national security and international obligations [3]. Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce held a regular press conference on November 13, where it was revealed that China has begun designing a new rare earth export licensing system [3]. - The spokesperson, He Yadong, emphasized that China is conducting rare earth export control work in accordance with laws and regulations, highlighting the country's commitment to maintaining national security and interests [3]. - The new licensing system is expected to enhance the efficiency of the export process for rare earth materials [3].

在这方面我们还是很有诚意的，毕竟中美贸易战已经降温，那我们必然要在姿态上保持开放，兑现中方高层在会晤中作出的承诺，更何况我们本身就愿意维 持全球供应链的稳定，不想把事情做绝。 刚消停两天的懂王，又开始上蹿下跳了。中美釜山会晤后，美国拿到了想要的东西，就开始砸锅赶厨子。美财长自信满满，扬言不怕卡脖子！却不料我方转 头亮出大招，直接给美国军工复合体套上紧箍咒。这一次美国才认识到，自家命脉早就握在了我方手中。 不久前的中美釜山会晤给全世界都松了口气，很多人觉得既然美国已经服软了，那中国对美国的稀土出口管制也该松一松了。 就在市场普遍预期两国关系恢复的当口，美国主流媒体传出的消息再一次震惊世界，消息称，中国确实准备恢复对美稀土供应，但附带了让美国军工复合体 非常难受的条件。 稀土是工业维生素这事儿已经闹得人尽皆知了，对大部分美国企业 而言，既然中国愿意重新向美国供应稀土，那就是天大的利好，可对另外一些特殊的美 国实体而言，中国最新的稀土政策反而成了拴在他们脖子上的紧箍咒。 据《华尔街日报》消息，中国正在建立全新的稀土出口管理体系，全名是"经认证终端用户"，体系的运作方式很直接，我国将美国民用企业拉入白名单，只 要我们 ...