丨证券研究报告丨 中国经济丨点评报告 [Table_Title] PPI 降幅扩大，"反内卷"势在必行 ——6 月通胀数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 6 月 CPI 同比转涨，核心 CPI 同比涨幅扩大、为 2024 年 5 月以来新高，油价、金价等工业消 费品价格回升是主要拉动。6 月 PPI 同比降幅扩大、创 2023 年 8 月以来新低，其中，国内需 求疲弱、部分行业产能过剩，煤炭、钢材、水泥降幅扩大是主要拖累。往前看，猪价或维持窄 幅震荡、能源价格面临一定下行压力，CPI 同比回升的关键仍在于居民消费需求的回升；7 月 中央财经委员会直指"内卷式"竞争治理，多行业积极响应，或提振部分行业价格回升，除了 供给侧的优化，加大对国内基建、地产投资以及居民消费等领域支持的需求侧政策同样重要。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 蒋佳榛 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490524080005 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title PPI 降幅扩大，"反 ...

来源：环球时报 随着大量资本涌入，近期外卖平台间的价格大战、补贴大战愈演愈烈，内卷式竞争陷入白热化。有的以 大幅降价、首单免费等方式大力促销，有的则以高额补贴让消费者"零元购"。这些促销手法看上去花样 繁多，事实上并不新鲜，内核与此前网约车平台在竞争初期的做法一致，都是通过大量补贴，一方面降 低商品或服务的价格，另一方面招揽司机或外卖骑手，从而获取更大的市场份额。补贴后的低廉价格， 让不少消费者甚至囤了满满一冰箱的奶茶，感叹"根本喝不完"。 那么这场热火朝天的外卖大战究竟利好了谁？是销量暴涨的奶茶商家？与消费者"喝不完"的奶茶相呼应 的，是奶茶店"做不完"的订单。某奶茶店的4名员工，一天做了近3000杯饮品。然而，平台的促销补 贴，一部分也转嫁到了商家头上，单店单日营业额上万元，扣除补贴、材料、人工与水电等成本后，平 均一杯还赚不到1元，有时一单还要赔2元至3元。 这场无人百分百获益的外卖大战，是几个月来平台之间日趋激烈的竞争的集中爆发。早在各平台露出恶 性竞争的苗头时，就已引起有关部门的关注。今年5月，市场监管总局会同中央社会工作部、中央网信 办、人力资源社会保障部、商务部，针对外卖行业竞争中存在的突出问题 ...

有美国学者一语道破，实际上欧洲并没有"中国牌"可打。由于中欧经济相互高度依赖，欧盟对中国的施 压空间相当有限，中方的反击让其认清了这一现实。 "欧盟一边对华不满，另一边遭美加税" 这篇文章写道，欧盟一开始就是为了促进跨境商业而诞生的，一直是自由贸易的坚定捍卫者。可随着美 国为缩小贸易逆差、增加财政收入并推动本土制造业而扰乱全球贸易体系，欧盟正变得愈发孤立。 【文/观察者网 柳白】特朗普政府磨刀霍霍的关税政策，搅乱了全球经济发展的"一池春水"。而面对中 方持续释放的善意与合作信号，欧盟却故作"矫情"，无法摆脱对美幻想，甚至对华采取限制措施。 "欧盟发现自己陷入了中美之间的地缘政治困境。"美国《纽约时报》在7月6日发表的文章中指出，一方 面，欧盟试图与特朗普政府达成贸易协议框架，以避免被征收高额关税；另一方面，欧盟不满中国在俄 乌等问题上的政策，最近还以"不公平竞争"为由限制采购中国设备，可面对全球贸易局势动荡，又不得 不与中国这个全球制造业强国保持相对稳定的关系。 值得注意的是，欧盟针对中国产品设置贸易壁垒，往往很快遭致中方精准反击：对欧盟猪肉、白兰地展 开反倾销调查、对欧盟部分乳制品发起发补贴调查……7月6日 ...

【DT新材料】 获悉，7月4日，阿勒泰地区与 浙江万利碳纤维智能装备有限公司 共同启动总投资50 亿元的碳纤维项目。 该项目位于阿勒泰富蕴县开发区，规划用地1500亩，厂房用地36万平方米，最终形成年产6万吨原 丝、3万吨碳纤维的生产规模。项目计划3年内全面投产，今年年底，部分生产线将率先产出碳丝。 除了上述最新的新疆阿勒泰项目，浙江万利碳纤维公司此前已经在浙江、辽宁、内蒙古先后进行了碳 纤维版图布局： 浙江桐乡 ：2025年7月1日，由浙江万利碳纤维与桐乡铭龙集团合资建设的 万龙碳纤维项目 在屠甸 镇开工。项目总投资10.8亿元，一期用地72亩，规划建设24万平方米厂房。建成后将年产1000万平 方米碳纤维编织布、2000万平方米预浸料及6000吨拉挤型材，预计新增年产值15亿元。该项目已列 入浙江省千项万亿元项目。 辽宁阜新 ：2024年3月18日，国核投资（辽宁）碳纤维复合材料项目在阜新开工，总投资27.8亿元。 项目占地400亩，建设18万平方米厂房，规划建设碳纤维织物、复合材料拉挤、碳纤维储氢瓶三条生 产线。浙江万利碳纤维作为项目总承包商参与建设。 内蒙古乌海 ：内蒙古和利化学纤维（集团）有限公司（ ...

在第58届东盟外长会及系列会议开幕式上，马来西亚总理安瓦尔表示，关税、出口限制及投资壁垒当下 已经成为地缘政治竞争的锋利工具，而曾经被用于创造经济增长的工具，如今却成为施加压力、孤立与 遏制的手段。 ...

Group 1 - The cumulative retail sales of passenger cars reached 10.901 million units in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.8%. The market share of domestic brands is 64%, an increase of 7.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1][2] - The top ten car manufacturers by sales have undergone a reshuffle, with BYD maintaining the first position, followed by Geely, FAW-Volkswagen, Changan, and Chery, all exceeding 600,000 units in sales. BYD and Geely surpassed one million units sold [1] - The traditional dominance of SAIC Volkswagen, FAW-Volkswagen, and SAIC-GM in the top three has changed, with only FAW-Volkswagen remaining in the top ten, while SAIC-GM has dropped out [1][2] Group 2 - The overall performance of domestic brands in the first half of the year was strong, with significant growth in the new energy vehicle sector led by companies like BYD, Geely, and Changan, as well as breakthroughs in overseas markets [2] - The market is experiencing intensified competition, with some companies facing declining sales and potential marginalization. Sustainable development requires companies to solidify their advantages in electric vehicle technology, expand scale effectively, and build differentiated competitiveness [3] - The market has shown resilience due to policies promoting consumption, with local governments implementing measures to stimulate sales, leading to a positive trend in June. However, a structural differentiation in growth is evident, with traditional fuel vehicle production capacity remaining high amid a shrinking market [3]

作为国内快递市场的"后来者"，极兔速递(1519.HK)在经历了海外市场起网，杀回国内市场，通过低价 策略抢占市场份额以及并购重组、登陆资本市场等一系列动作之后，已经从最初那个搅动国内快递市场 格局的鲶鱼开始逐渐成为行业中一个不容小视的角色。 7月8日发布的2025年第二季度及上半年主要经营数据显示，极兔速递在今年第二季度实现包裹量约73.9 亿件，同比增长23.5%；日均包裹量8,120万件。整个2025上半年，极兔速递总包裹量达到139.9亿件， 同比增长达到27%，日均包裹量达到7,690万件。 "前几年我曾经试过用极兔发货，当时也是考虑价格比较实惠，想节省点成本，但用了一段时间效果不 太好，配送速度比不过其他几家快递，而且投诉率也比较高，后来就不太敢用了，"一位在国内几家主 流电商平台均开通店铺售卖生活日用品的私营业主近日在接受《华夏时报》记者采访时表示，"不过最 近一段时间发现其他同业很多也都在用极兔，就重新试了一段时间，虽然价格要比前几年高不少，但配 送效率和服务提升还是很明显的，而且较其他快递依然有价格优势，所以就又开始用了。" 极兔速递方面表示，在国内市场一直持续推动网络建设和运营优化，通过提 ...

6月27日，十四届全国人大常委会第十六次会议表决通过了反不正当竞争法修订草案，将于今年10月15 日起施行。此次修订围绕当前反不正当竞争工作面临的新情况新问题，细化不正当竞争行为的类型和认 定标准，增加了多项规则。其中对平台经营者义务和责任的强化，为平台经济市场竞争的常态化监管补 充了制度工具，有望为进一步规范健康有序的平台经济竞争生态提供法治保障。 新修订反不正当竞争法对平台竞争治理的发展 自1993年诞生以来，反不正当竞争法经过2017年和2019年两次修订，2017年首次大修即增设互联网专 条，对依托数字经济而发展的新型不正当竞争行为投入关注，列举式规定了四种新型竞争行为，即强制 跳链、诱导卸载、恶意不兼容和网络不正当竞争的其他行为；2019年对商业秘密相关条款进行局部的专 项修订。面对直播电商、算法定价、数据垄断等新型的竞争行为，反不正当竞争法调整的范围及相关条 款难以覆盖上述内容；此外，为释放中小型企业的生存压力与创新能力，防范大型企业对其发展空间及 公平待遇的剥削，该法进行调整也势在必行；同时，为响应党中央对"内卷式"竞争的整治要求，该法也 应该做出积极回应，在上述背景下进行了再次修订。此次修订虽 ...

Inflation Data - June CPI year-on-year growth rate is 0.1%, an improvement from the previous value of -0.1%, exceeding market expectations of 0%[3] - June PPI year-on-year growth rate recorded at -3.6%, lower than market expectations of -3.2%[7] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.7% year-on-year, marking a 14-month high[5] Price Movements - Industrial consumer goods prices saw a narrowing decline from -1.0% in May to -0.5% in June, contributing less to CPI decline by approximately 0.18 percentage points[3] - Gasoline prices shifted from a 3.8% decline to a 0.4% increase in June, influenced by international oil price movements[4] - Platinum jewelry prices surged by 12.6% in June, the largest monthly increase in nearly a decade[3] Economic Outlook - The market is expected to exhibit a dual bull structure in stocks and bonds in the second half of the year, supported by improving US-China trade relations and risk-averse funds[2] - Fixed income yields, particularly the 10-year government bond rate, are projected to decline to around 1.5% amid low domestic demand stimulus probability[2] Consumer Demand - Consumer demand is in a critical recovery phase, with incremental counter-cyclical policies expected to enhance demand and gradually improve CPI levels[7] - The demand for high-quality living is increasing, leading to price recoveries in related industries[9]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Wuxi Shengjing Microelectronics Co., Ltd., has experienced significant fluctuations in its performance since its listing in January 2024, with a notable decline in revenue and profit margins attributed to market competition and changing customer procurement strategies [1][5][21]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 823 million yuan, which dropped to 504 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year change of 6.71% and -38.70% respectively [1]. - The cash received from sales relative to revenue (cash collection ratio) was 38% in 2024, slightly up from 36% in 2023 [15]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company fell from 180 million yuan in 2023 to 10 million yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year change of 4.16% and -94.44% respectively [1]. Customer Dynamics - The top five customers remained relatively stable, with North Special Energy Group being the largest customer in both 2023 and 2024, contributing sales of 182 million yuan and 106 million yuan respectively [2][3]. - The company faced a decline in sales volume of electronic control modules by 29.42% due to customers switching to lower-priced products and introducing alternative suppliers [4][6]. Market Trends - The overall production of electronic detonators in China decreased by 5.02% in 2024, impacting the demand for the company's main products [5][12]. - The market for electronic control modules has become increasingly competitive, with over 40 domestic competitors emerging, leading to price reductions and a decline in market share from 40.41% in 2022 to 21.98% in 2024 [10][12][13]. Operational Challenges - The company reported a significant drop in the average selling price of electronic control modules by 28.42% in 2024, contributing to a decrease in gross profit margins [19]. - The cash flow from operating activities turned negative, with a net cash flow of -10.68 million yuan in 2024, primarily due to reduced sales and extended payment cycles from customers [18][21]. Strategic Adjustments - The company has increased its focus on research and development, with R&D expenses rising by 15.24% in 2024 to support product innovation and meet evolving customer demands [20]. - The shift in customer procurement strategies, including the introduction of secondary and tertiary suppliers, has pressured the company's market position and necessitated adjustments in pricing and product offerings [13][21].