Market Performance - The A-share market showed strong performance on October 27, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching the 4000-point mark, indicating a bullish trend [1][4] - The market sentiment is gradually stabilizing, with active funds' reduction behavior nearing its end, reflecting a steady correction in investor confidence [4] Sector Analysis - Key sectors performing well include communication equipment, electronic components, consumer electronics, and non-ferrous metals, while gaming, wind power equipment, engineering consulting services, and mining sectors lagged [1] - The storage chip sector showed strength, with local stocks in Fujian performing well, and the computing hardware sector remained active [4] Economic and Policy Influences - Multiple factors such as the Fourth Plenary Session setting the tone for the "14th Five-Year Plan," the opening of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, and the easing of China-US trade relations are contributing to a gradual upward trend in the A-share market [1] - The market is expected to continue its slow upward trend in the short term, with close attention needed on policy, capital flow, and external market changes [1] Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, the index has broken through key resistance levels, with significant volume expansion indicating active market sentiment [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed its previous trading range, suggesting potential for further upward movement [4] Mid-term Outlook - Despite potential supply-demand pressures in the spring of next year, the gradual clearing of production capacity and the effects of policies are expected to stabilize the economic and market bottom, serving as a key driving force for a new market rally [4] - Supportive factors for the fourth quarter include anti-involution policies, increased household savings entering the market, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and a reversal in technical indicators, suggesting a bullish outlook for A-shares [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices has led to a significant drop in the retail price of gold jewelry, prompting investors to consider buying opportunities as prices retreat from recent highs [2][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - On October 21, the spot gold price fell from a high of $4,374.79 per ounce, experiencing a daily drop of 6.70%, marking the largest single-day decline in 12 years with a closing drop of 5.33% [2]. - By October 26, the retail price of gold jewelry from major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook dropped to 1,232 CNY per gram, down 60 CNY from the peak of 1,292 CNY per gram on October 21, resulting in a savings of 4,800 CNY for an 80-gram gold bracelet [2]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Investors are beginning to re-enter the market, with some, like Ms. Lin, purchasing 40,000 CNY worth of gold on October 22, seizing the opportunity presented by the price drop after previously hesitating due to high prices [3]. - Ms. Liu, holding nearly 500,000 CNY in gold ETFs, experienced a loss of approximately 19,000 CNY in a single day but remains calm, viewing the price correction as a normal market behavior [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by geopolitical factors and profit-taking, but long-term support remains strong due to ongoing monetary policy changes, including potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and central bank gold purchases [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that the current price correction may present a buying opportunity, with expectations that the long-term price trend for gold remains upward due to factors such as a weakening dollar and global economic uncertainties [4][5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The copper price is close to a new high due to macro - positive stimuli. The overall sentiment in the market is optimistic. The copper price may continue to rise in the medium - to - long - term and could potentially break through historical highs following the trend of gold [3][4] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Information Market Performance - Today, the US dollar rose slightly while the RMB soared. Non - ferrous metals remained strong throughout the day. Shanghai copper, London copper, and domestic spot copper all increased. The closing price of Shanghai copper was 88,370, and the spot price was 88,340. The spot was at a discount of - 30 points to the futures. The spot basis turned to a discount of - 45 points, and spot trading was poor. The LME spot discount narrowed slightly to - 26 dollars this week, indicating general foreign spot demand. US copper inventories continued to rise significantly this week, London copper inventories decreased, and Shanghai copper inventories increased, with general spot demand. The RMB exchange rate rose significantly this week, and the Yangshan copper premium dropped to 34.5 dollars, showing weak domestic spot demand. The London - Shanghai ratio of copper prices rose to 8.09, and the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper increased to 595 points, with the foreign price - to - value ratio higher than the domestic one [3] Technical and Fundamental Analysis - Technically, London copper surged today, trading around 11,050 dollars. Shanghai copper also rose sharply, closing at 88,370, hitting a recent high with a strong technical pattern. Both trading volume and open interest of Shanghai copper increased, and market sentiment was optimistic. Macroscopically, the global trade pattern is gradually stabilizing, the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle continues, and global monetary policies are becoming more accommodative, which is a medium - term positive for copper prices. In terms of supply and demand, mine production in places like Indonesia has declined, but short - term spot demand remains weak, inventories are high, and there is growth potential for medium - to - long - term copper demand, presenting a generally neutral situation that requires attention [3][4] Future Events to Watch - In the short - term, important macro events to follow include the results of Sino - US talks, the Fed's interest - rate meeting early Thursday, the APEC meeting at the end of the month where Sino - US leaders may meet, and the end of the US government shutdown. In the medium - term, it is necessary to monitor whether Sino - US relations can continue to improve, whether the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle can persist, when the current weak domestic and foreign spot demand will improve, and whether AI - related demand can materialize [4] Copper Market Indicator Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium/Discount (yuan/ton) | Yangshan Copper Premium (dollars/ton) | LME Copper - Futures and Spot Spread | Main Contract London - Shanghai Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Oct 21 | 7.1269 | 450 | 35 | - 23 | 8.05 | | Oct 22 | 7.1256 | - 320 | 34 | - 30 | 8.03 | | Oct 23 | 7.1246 | - 520 | 40 | - 6 | 8.05 | | Oct 24 | 7.1259 | - 1170 | 39 | - 12 | 7.97 | | Oct 27 | 7.1136 | - 30 | 34.5 | - 26 | 8.09 | [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The recent correction in precious metal prices is mainly due to the expectation of a temporary easing of overseas risk events and an over - bought correction in trading, rather than a reversal of the trading logic. The price decline is more of a "correction in the upward trend" than a "trend reversal" based on geopolitical risks, weakening US dollar credit, and the start of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy, focusing on the upcoming Fed interest - rate meeting and considering buying on dips. [2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On October 27, 2025, Shanghai gold futures (SHFE) fell 0.48% to 941.34 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver futures fell 0.25% to 11,419.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4,126.90 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 48.41 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.02%, and the US dollar index was 98.94. [2] - From August 22 to October 17, the price of the COMEX gold main contract rose by 26.21%, and the price of the COMEX silver main contract rose by 31.23%. On October 21, COMEX gold prices dropped by 5.07%, and COMEX silver prices dropped by 6.27%. [2] 3.2 Factors Affecting Prices - Overseas risk events: Media reports of a potential peace plan to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict led to a short - term drop in precious metal prices. However, the situation has not been completely reversed as Trump and the White House stated there are no plans for a meeting between the US and Russian presidents. [2] - US inflation data and Fed policy expectations: US September CPI data was lower than expected, boosting expectations of the Fed's loose monetary policy. Due to the government shutdown in October, inflation data may not be released in November. The market has almost fully priced in two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts in the next two Fed meetings. [3] 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - Maintain a long - position strategy. Focus on the Fed's interest - rate meeting on Thursday (market expects a 25 - basis - point rate cut), and pay attention to Powell's statement on the balance - sheet. It is recommended to buy on dips. The reference trading range for the SHFE gold main contract is 923 - 982 yuan/gram, and for the SHFE silver main contract is 11,082 - 12,023 yuan/kilogram. [4] 3.4 Data Summary - **Gold**: On October 24, 2025, compared with the previous day, COMEX gold's closing price (active contract) decreased by 0.39% to 4,126.90 US dollars/ounce, trading volume increased by 10.19% to 29.20 million lots, and open interest increased by 2.43% to 52.88 million lots. SHFE gold's closing price (active contract) decreased by 0.44% to 938.10 yuan/gram, trading volume decreased by 33.87% to 49.95 million lots, and open interest decreased by 1.28% to 35.59 million lots. [7] - **Silver**: On October 24, 2025, compared with the previous day, COMEX silver's closing price (active contract) decreased by 0.49% to 48.41 US dollars/ounce, open interest increased by 1.75% to 16.58 million lots. SHFE silver's closing price (active contract) decreased by 1.18% to 11,332.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume decreased by 5.55% to 147.59 million lots, and open interest decreased by 1.97% to 73.99 million lots. [7]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities emphasizes a focus on the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and advanced manufacturing sectors in the mid-term, while suggesting a shift towards high-dividend and consumer sectors if market volatility occurs [1] Industry Focus - Mid-term attention is directed towards the TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors, with TMT likely to be a main focus during liquidity-driven market conditions [1] - The TMT sector currently has several catalysts, including the onset of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycle and the ongoing development of the AI industry, which provide upward momentum [1] Market Conditions - If the market shifts towards being driven by fundamentals, advanced manufacturing should be a key area of focus, as the current market may be in a mid-term phase [1] - In the event of market turbulence, sectors that are lagging, such as high-dividend stocks and consumer sectors, should be monitored, including industries like banking, utilities, food and beverage, and personal care [1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Shift - The Federal Reserve is transitioning from prioritizing inflation control to focusing on growth, with a consensus expectation of interest rate cuts in October and December, indicating a potential continuous rate-cutting cycle [1] - This policy adjustment is driven by reduced inflation pressures and signs of weakness in the job market, rather than economic panic [1] Group 2: Impact on Pharmaceutical and Chemical Industries - The interest rate cuts will lower financing costs and improve global liquidity, significantly benefiting the pharmaceutical sector, especially innovative drug and CXO companies reliant on financing for R&D [3] - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to see increased capital flow towards emerging market assets, supported by recent policy events and conferences [3] - In contrast, the chemical industry may experience a replenishment cycle, stimulating capital expenditures and production investments, but faces challenges from rising raw material costs and weak global demand [3] Group 3: Company Performance Highlights - Sanofi expects high single-digit sales growth and low double-digit earnings per share growth driven by innovation, despite challenges in its vaccine business [4] - Roche reported a 7% year-on-year sales increase to 45.9 billion Swiss francs, primarily driven by its pharmaceutical division, which saw a 9% increase due to high demand for key innovative drugs [5] - Dow Inc. experienced an 8% year-on-year decline in net sales, with all operational segments showing a downturn, although cash flow improved significantly due to working capital optimization [5] Group 4: Trends in the Pharmaceutical and Chemical Sectors - Chinese companies are gaining global competitiveness in the pharmaceutical sector, particularly in the CXO field, which is becoming a crucial base for global pharmaceutical innovation [5] - Traditional sectors like raw material and chemical pharmaceuticals must upgrade technology and collaborate across the supply chain to avoid market share and profit erosion [5] - The future competitiveness of the global market and China's pharmaceutical and chemical industries will increasingly depend on technological innovation and global operational capabilities [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The decline in precious metal prices is more of a "correction in an uptrend" rather than a "trend reversal" based on geopolitical risks, weakening US dollar credit, and the start of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle. Maintain a long - term bullish view and focus on the Fed's interest - rate meeting next Thursday. Suggest allocating long positions on dips, with the reference range for the SHFE gold main contract at 923 - 982 yuan/gram and for the SHFE silver main contract at 11082 - 12023 yuan/kilogram [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Weekly Market Review**: Gold and silver prices declined this week. As of Friday's daytime close, SHFE gold fell 6.17% to 938.10 yuan/gram, SHFE silver fell 7.49% to 11332.00 yuan/kilogram, COMEX gold fell 3.30% to 4126.90 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 4.38% to 48.41 US dollars/ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.02%, and the US dollar index rose 0.39% to 98.94 [11] - **Reasons for the Correction**: The main reasons were the expected easing of overseas risk events and over - bought corrections in trading, not a reversal in the trading logic. News of a potential end to the Russia - Ukraine conflict led to a short - term decline in precious metal prices, but the risk events have not been completely reversed [11] - **US Economic Data**: The US September CPI data was lower than expected, boosting expectations of the Fed's loose monetary policy. There may be a lack of inflation data in the future, and the market has almost fully priced in two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts in the next two Fed meetings [11] 3.2. Market Review - **Price Movements**: Gold and silver prices declined this week. SHFE gold and silver, as well as COMEX gold and silver, all recorded drops [30] - **Open Interest**: This week, the total open interest of SHFE gold decreased by 1.28% to 355,900 lots, while the total open interest of COMEX gold as of the latest report period increased by 2.43% to 528,800 lots. The total open interest of SHFE silver decreased slightly by 1.97% to 739,900 lots, and the total open interest of COMEX silver as of the latest report period increased by 1.75% to 165,800 lots [32][34] - **Managed Fund Net Positions**: As of the September 23 report period, the net positions of COMEX gold and silver managed funds increased. The net position of COMEX gold managed funds rose by 1578 lots to 160,500 lots, and that of COMEX silver managed funds rose by 1293 lots to 37,000 lots [36] - **ETF Holdings**: As of October 24, the total holdings of gold ETFs within the Reuters statistical scope were 2332.14 tons, and the total holdings of overseas silver ETFs were 28165.84 tons [39] 3.3. Interest Rates and Liquidity - **US Treasury Yields**: Analyzed the spreads between 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury bonds and short - term Treasury yields [49] - **Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations**: Presented the US federal funds rate, overnight reverse repurchase rate, 10 - year nominal and real interest rates, and inflation expectations [52] - **Fed's Balance Sheet**: The Fed's total assets decreased by 6921 million US dollars this week. There were changes in various items on both the asset and liability sides [54] 3.4. Macroeconomic Data - **US CPI & PCE**: The US September CPI and core CPI were lower than expected and previous values. The CPI同比 was 3%, lower than the expected 3.1% and the previous value of 2.9%, and the core CPI同比 was 3%, lower than the expected and previous value of 3.1% [61] - **US Employment**: Due to the US government shutdown, the latest weekly unemployment data was missing [64] - **US PMI & PPI**: The US September ISM manufacturing PMI was 49.1, higher than the expected 49 and the previous value of 48.7. The ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50, lower than the expected 51.7 and the previous value of 52 [67] - **US New Housing Data**: In August, the annualized number of new housing sales was 800,000, significantly higher than the previous value of 664,000. The annualized number of building permits was 1.33 million, and the annualized number of new housing starts was 1.307 million [70] 3.5. Precious Metal Spreads - **Gold Basis**: Analyzed the spread between gold TD and SHFE gold [73] - **Silver Basis**: Analyzed the spread between silver TD and SHFE silver [76] - **Domestic - Foreign Spreads**: Analyzed the domestic - foreign spreads of gold and silver [79] 3.6. Precious Metal Inventories - **Silver Inventories**: Presented the silver inventories of Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, COMEX, and LBMA [86][89] - **Gold Inventories**: Presented the gold inventories of COMEX and LBMA [91]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in international gold prices have been significant, with a notable drop on October 21, marking the largest single-day percentage decline since August 2020 [1][2]. Price Movements - On October 21, spot gold fell to a low of $4080.87 per ounce, with a peak decline of over 6%, closing down 5.31% at $4124.355 per ounce [1]. - Subsequent days saw mixed movements: October 22 closed down 0.46% at $4097.94, October 23 closed up 0.7% at $4126.49, and October 24 closed down 0.36% at $4111.56 [2]. Market Analysis - Analysts from Standard Chartered noted that the recent sell-off in metal prices was expected as investors moved away from relying on metals as safe assets due to significant price increases throughout the year [2]. - Looking ahead, spot gold is projected to perform strongly in 2025, with a year-to-date increase of 66.96%, rising from approximately $2624 per ounce at the beginning of the year to a peak of around $4381 per ounce on October 20 [2]. Future Predictions - Morgan Stanley maintains a bullish outlook on gold, predicting an average price of $5055 per ounce by Q4 2026, driven by sustained demand from global investors and central banks [2][3]. - ANZ has raised its 2025 year-end gold price forecast to $4400 per ounce, with expectations of reaching nearly $4600 per ounce by June 2026 [3]. - Goldman Sachs has also increased its 2026 December gold price estimate to $4900 per ounce, up from a previous forecast of $4300 [3].

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced fluctuations and closed higher on October 23, with an opening price of $4036.99 per ounce, a high of $4154.66, a low of $4023.26, and a closing price of $4141.85 [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy warned that the ongoing government shutdown, now in its fourth week, is causing significant disruptions to flights across the country, with delays increasing from 5% to over 50% due to air traffic controller shortages [3] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September is expected to show a growth rate similar to August, with core CPI likely reaching 0.3% month-over-month, and both overall and core CPI year-over-year close to 3.0%, exceeding the Federal Reserve's target of 2.0% [5] Commodity Analysis - JPMorgan analysts maintained a bullish outlook on gold, predicting an average price of $5055 per ounce by Q4 2026, based on sustained investor demand and central bank purchases averaging 566 tons [4] - The analysts highlighted that the upcoming Federal Reserve rate cuts, concerns over stagflation, and risks of currency devaluation create a favorable environment for gold [4] Geopolitical Developments - President Trump indicated a potential escalation in actions against drug trafficking from Venezuela, suggesting ground operations may be next, which could heighten tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela [6] - Ukrainian President Zelensky emphasized that any territorial exchanges with Russia are unacceptable and called for increased pressure on Russia before negotiations can begin [7] Technical Analysis - Gold prices are currently showing a short-term upward trend, with the market stabilizing above the 60-day moving average, although there are indications of potential resistance at higher levels [10] - The trading strategy suggests cautious engagement with both long and short positions, reflecting the volatility in the market ahead of the CPI data release [11]

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan analysts maintain a bullish stance on gold, predicting an average price of $5,055 per ounce by Q4 2026, based on an assumption of average quarterly investor demand and central bank purchases of 566 tons [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle is seen as a factor that will support gold prices [1][3]. - Concerns about stagflation, the independence of the Federal Reserve, and currency devaluation risks create a favorable environment for gold [1][3]. - Recent price consolidation in gold is viewed as a healthy phenomenon, reflecting market digestion of rapid gains since August [1][5]. Group 2: Long-term Demand Drivers - A trend of "de-dollarization" is prompting some overseas investors to shift from dollar assets to gold, with potential price increases if the allocation to gold rises [2][3]. - Central banks are expected to maintain strong gold purchasing rates, averaging 566 tons quarterly over the next two years [2][3]. Group 3: Institutional Outlook - JPMorgan's price target is among the most optimistic, with other institutions like HSBC, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs forecasting lower targets for gold prices by the end of 2026 [4]. - The consensus among institutions highlights that rate cut expectations and central bank buying will be key drivers in the next two years [4][5]. Group 4: Price Performance - Gold has risen over 50% this year, and while short-term volatility is expected, it is considered part of a bull market's phase of consolidation [5][6]. - Investor risk appetite, dollar performance, and U.S. bond yield changes are identified as primary variables influencing future gold prices [5][6].