Group 1 - The livestock industry is experiencing positive momentum driven by government policies aimed at controlling production capacity and stabilizing pork prices, indicating a commitment to high-quality development in the pig market [1][2] - The decline in the weight of pigs being sold may help reduce inventory and stabilize short-term pork prices, while the impact of a decrease in breeding sows may not be felt until the second half of next year [1] - If both the reduction in breeding sows and the decrease in weight are sustained, pork supply will significantly decrease next year, potentially leading to a gradual increase in pork price levels in the second half of the year [1] Group 2 - The China Livestock Breeding Index (930707) has shown an increase of 0.67%, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Jinxinnong (up 2.49%) and Haili Biological (up 2.26%) [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Livestock Breeding Index account for 64.83% of the index, including major companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment ratings in the given content. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures products, including their market performance, influencing factors, and investment strategies. It assesses the market conditions based on factors such as macro - economic data, supply - demand dynamics, and policy expectations [5][9][11]. - Different futures products have different investment outlooks. For example, some are expected to have long - term bullish trends, while others may experience short - term fluctuations or require cautious investment [7][10][13]. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed lower. The 30 - year and 10 - year main contracts hit new lows since early April [5]. - **Influencing Factors**: Current macro - data is stable, but the macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening. Monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level, and there is uncertainty in the Sino - US trade agreement [6]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and investors should remain cautious [7]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The CSI 300 and SSE 50 futures main contracts declined, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 futures main contracts had small changes [8]. - **Influencing Factors**: The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak, and the market lacks confidence in corporate earnings. However, domestic asset valuations are low, and the Chinese economy has sufficient resilience [9]. - **Investment Strategy**: The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and investors can consider going long on stock index futures [10]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the gold main contract closed with a decline, and the silver main contract had a small increase [11]. - **Influencing Factors**: The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold - buying and potential Fed rate cuts also support gold prices [11][12]. - **Investment Strategy**: The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and investors can consider going long on gold futures [13]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated at high levels [14]. - **Influencing Factors**: Policy expectations dominate the market, and the actual supply - demand pattern is secondary. The expectation of steel supply contraction is strengthening [14]. - **Investment Strategy**: The futures may turn to a short - term oscillation. Investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips and manage their positions carefully [14]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures declined slightly [15]. - **Influencing Factors**: Policy expectations have boosted the market, but the supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally. Iron ore imports have increased, and port inventories are stable [15]. - **Investment Strategy**: The futures may turn to a short - term oscillation. Investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities and manage their positions carefully [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures tumbled, with some contracts hitting the daily limit [16]. - **Influencing Factors**: The direct cause was the exchange's position - limit measures, and the deep - seated reason was the over - accumulated gains. Supply - contraction policies are becoming a reality [16]. - **Investment Strategy**: The futures may experience sharp fluctuations in the short term. Investors can temporarily stay on the sidelines [16]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron main contracts rose significantly [18]. - **Influencing Factors**: Short - term bullish sentiment and supply - contraction expectations dominate. However, demand is weak, and there is a supply surplus in the short term [18][19]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can pay attention to opportunities to exit long positions when the market continues to rise and consider long - position opportunities in the low - support range if there is a decline [19]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward [20]. - **Influencing Factors**: Geopolitical risks remain high, and OPEC meetings are a market focus. Fund managers have reduced their net long positions, and the number of oil and gas rigs has decreased [20][21]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities in the main crude oil contract [22]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated upward but was blocked by the 20 - day moving average [23]. - **Influencing Factors**: The Asian fuel oil market has sufficient supply, but the signing of US trade agreements is beneficial to the shipping market [23]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities in the main fuel oil contract [24]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose and then pulled back at night [25]. - **Influencing Factors**: Raw material prices have declined, and the supply - demand situation is short - term loose [26]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [27]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber main contracts rose and then pulled back at night [28]. - **Influencing Factors**: Supply has increased, demand is mixed, and inventories have slightly decreased [28]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market is expected to be strongly oscillating, and investors can pay attention to medium - term long - position opportunities [29]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose [30]. - **Influencing Factors**: The supply - demand imbalance persists, but the downward space is limited. Policies have promoted the market [30]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market is expected to be strongly oscillating [32]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the urea main contract rose [33]. - **Influencing Factors**: Supply remains high, and demand is limited. Policy and demand implementation are awaited [33]. - **Investment Strategy**: Short - term oscillation, and a bullish view in the medium term [34]. p - Xylene (PX) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX2509 main contract rose [35]. - **Influencing Factors**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the cost support from crude oil is insufficient. New PTA device demand provides some support [35]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market may oscillate and adjust. Investors should participate cautiously and pay attention to cost factors and macro - policies [36]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2509 main contract rose [37]. - **Influencing Factors**: Supply - demand changes are small, and the cost support from crude oil is slightly insufficient. The market is pushed up by the "anti - involution" logic [37]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market may oscillate. Investors can participate in the range and control risks [37]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose [38]. - **Influencing Factors**: Supply pressure increases due to more restarts of coal - based plants, but inventory reduction provides some support [38]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market may continue to rise in the short term due to macro - factors. Investors should be cautious about the upside space and participate in the range [38]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2509 main contract rose [39]. - **Influencing Factors**: Supply has decreased, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The "anti - involution" policy may provide some driving force [39]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market may oscillate with the cost. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policies [39]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle chips 2509 main contract rose [40]. - **Influencing Factors**: Raw material prices are oscillating, device maintenance has increased, and inventory has decreased [40]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market is expected to oscillate with the cost. Investors should control risks [40]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of soda ash closed with a significant increase [41]. - **Influencing Factors**: The market is stimulated by policy expectations. Supply is at a high level, and inventory has decreased slightly. There is a new capacity release expectation at the end of 2025 [41]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market is expected to be stable and oscillating. Investors should be rational [41]. Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of glass closed with a large increase [42]. - **Influencing Factors**: Macro - sentiment and enterprise price increases have boosted the market. Inventory reduction has accelerated, and there is an expectation of old - capacity elimination [42][43]. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to spot trading and inventory reduction in different regions. In the long - term, focus on the implementation of old - capacity elimination [43]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of caustic soda closed lower [44]. - **Influencing Factors**: Supply is relatively sufficient, and demand has some improvement. The market is affected by macro - sentiment, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant [44][46]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market is driven by macro - sentiment. Investors should control risks [46]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of pulp closed with an increase [47]. - **Influencing Factors**: Supply tends to expand, demand is weak, and inventory is high. The market is in a structural adjustment stage [48][49]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market is expected to oscillate. Investors should pay attention to inventory, policy, and downstream procurement sentiment [49]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose significantly [50]. - **Influencing Factors**: Supply concerns have increased, but the supply - demand pattern remains unchanged. Consumption has improved slightly, but there is high - price aversion [50]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to be high and oscillating. Pay attention to the progress of the mining end [50]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated downward [52]. - **Influencing Factors**: The US tariff implementation date is approaching, and copper concentrate shortage persists. There is an expectation of Chinese policy strengthening [53]. - **Investment Strategy**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines for the Shanghai copper main contract [54]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated [55]. - **Influencing Factors**: The mining end is tight, but there is an expectation of tin - mine复产 in the fourth quarter. Supply is still in short supply, and consumption is weak [55]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to be strongly oscillating [55]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined [56]. - **Influencing Factors**: The mining end price has weakened, stainless - steel consumption is weak, and the first - grade nickel is in surplus [56][57]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate [57]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract declined, and the soybean oil main contract rose [58]. - **Influencing Factors**: There is a high expectation of US soybean harvest, and domestic supply is relatively loose. Demand for soybean meal may increase slightly, and demand for soybean oil may be suppressed [58][59]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities in the support range for soybean meal after adjustment; consider call - option opportunities in the support range for soybean oil after a pullback [59]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil declined. In China, palm oil inventory is high [60]. - **Influencing Factors**: Demand is weak, and there is an expectation of production increase [60]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities after a pullback [61]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed has been in a low - level oscillation [62]. - **Influencing Factors**: Domestic imports of rapeseed and related products have changed. There is a conflict between bio - fuel benefits and good crop conditions [62]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities for rapeseed - related products [63]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: Domestic cotton futures oscillated at a high level, and overseas cotton declined [64]. - **Influencing Factors**: Global supply - demand is expected to be loose, and domestic production is expected to increase. Downstream inventory is accumulating [65][66]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider short - selling far - month contracts in batches at high prices [67]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: Domestic sugar futures were strongly oscillating, and overseas raw sugar declined [68]. - **Influencing Factors**: Brazilian production is lower than expected, while Indian and Thai production is expected to be high. Domestic inventory is low, and imports are high [68][69]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market is expected to be oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see [69][70]. Apples - **Market Performance**: Domestic apple futures were strongly oscillating [71]. - **Influencing Factors**: The expectation of apple production reduction has been falsified, and production is expected to increase slightly [72]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider short - selling opportunities at high prices [73]. Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average price of live pigs remained flat [74]. - **Influencing Factors**: Supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. Summer is a consumption off - season [74][76]. - **Investment Strategy**: Hold previous short positions [76]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas remained flat [77]. - **Influencing Factors**: Egg production is increasing, and it is a consumption off - season. The supply pressure may ease in October [77][78]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider a 9 - 10 reverse spread [78]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Market Performance**: Corn and corn - starch main contracts declined [79]. - **Influencing Factors**: US and Brazilian corn production is expected to be high. Domestic supply - demand is approaching balance, and consumption is recovering [79][80][81]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider virtual - value call - option opportunities for the near - month corn contract in the low - level range. Corn starch follows the corn market [81]. Logs - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of logs rose slightly [82]. - **Influencing Factors**: Supply has increased, inventory has slightly increased, and spot prices have slightly decreased [82][83]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market has returned to the spot reality [83].

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The upstream coal market sentiment is positive due to industry anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity policies, driving the urea futures market stronger. After the elimination of urea production capacity, the supply - side pressure will be effectively alleviated, with a strong expectation. However, currently, there is a weak reality with sufficient supply, slow - growing demand, limited exports, and large inventory accumulation [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Price and Spread - Urea主力收盘1803元/吨（+18）；河南小颗粒市场价1810元/吨（-20）；山东小颗粒市场价1790元/吨（-20）；江苏小颗粒市场价1810元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0）；山东尿素基差 - 13元/吨（-38）；河南尿素基差7元/吨（-38）；江苏尿素基差7元/吨（-28）；尿素生产利润260.0元/吨（-20.0）；出口利润1094.6元/吨（+16.0） [1] 2. Upstream Supply - As of July 25, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.6% (-1.5%), the enterprise in - factory inventory was 85.9 million tons (-3.7), and the port inventory was 54.3 million tons (+0.2). The short - term supply is relatively sufficient, and new production facilities are gradually put into operation, with production remaining at a high level [1][2] 3. Downstream Demand - As of July 25, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 33.6% (+1.0%), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 65.2% (+1.0%), and the urea enterprise advance order days were 5.9 days (-0.1). Agricultural demand is gradually ending, industrial demand is in the off - season, and the start - up of autumn compound fertilizer production is slow, with no bright spots in demand [1][2] 4. Urea Inventory - The inventory depletion rate of enterprises has slowed down, and the total inventory has accumulated significantly compared with the same period in previous years [2] Strategies - Unilateral: Bullish in the short term. - Inter - period: Reverse spread for 09 - 01 contracts. - Cross - variety: Coal - based urea production profit [3]

Core Viewpoint - Hoshine Silicon Industry (合盛硅业) has reported its first loss since its listing in 2017, with an expected net profit loss of 300 to 400 million yuan for the first half of 2025, and a significant loss of at least 560 million yuan in the second quarter alone [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's core products include industrial silicon, organic silicon, and polysilicon, which are integral to the photovoltaic industry [2]. - The loss is attributed to weak downstream demand for industrial silicon, low operating rates in the polysilicon sector, and a significant decline in market prices due to supply-demand imbalances [2][3]. - The average price of polysilicon fell to 38,000 yuan per ton in May 2024, below the industry average cost for over 14 months, while industrial silicon prices dropped to 9,648 yuan per ton by April 2025, also below production costs for nearly three months [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The industrial silicon and polysilicon sectors are experiencing historical lows in monthly operating rates, at 41.9% and 38.6% respectively [3]. - Despite the current downturn, there is potential for recovery in the organic silicon sector driven by emerging industries such as renewable energy and 5G [3][4]. - The company anticipates a gradual improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with recent price increases indicating a potential market recovery [4]. Group 3: Financing Activities - Hoshine Silicon has initiated multiple financing measures to address its financial pressures, including asset-backed securities (ABS) projects and significant credit lines totaling hundreds of billions of yuan [1][7]. - As of the first quarter of 2025, the company's total assets were 90.769 billion yuan, with total liabilities at 56.783 billion yuan, resulting in a debt ratio of 62.56% [6]. - The company has also engaged in share transfers to raise funds, with its controlling shareholder transferring 5.08% of shares for 2.634 billion yuan to support both the company and its own financial needs [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive market is facing scrutiny over the practice of "0-kilometer used cars," which has been linked to inflated sales figures by companies like Zeekr and Neta. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is planning to take strict measures against this practice to combat industry "involution" [1][3][14]. Group 1: Industry Overview - "0-kilometer used cars" refer to vehicles that have been registered but have minimal mileage (0-1000 km) and are sold at significantly lower prices than new cars, creating a gray area in the market [4][14]. - The phenomenon has become widespread, with many mainstream brands, including Geely, SAIC, and Xpeng, participating in this practice, leading to a chaotic market environment [7][13]. - Long-standing issues in the industry, such as pressure to meet sales targets and the practice of dealers pre-registering vehicles, have contributed to the rise of "0-kilometer used cars" [14][16]. Group 2: Regulatory Response - The MIIT is collaborating with relevant departments to regulate and manage the "0-kilometer used car" phenomenon, aiming to close loopholes in the registration and transfer processes [16]. - A series of measures have been implemented to combat misleading sales practices, including the establishment of a credit evaluation system and stricter oversight of the entire sales process [15][16]. - Major automakers like BYD and Chery are also taking action by holding dealers accountable for improper registration practices, indicating a collective effort to address the issue [16][17]. Group 3: Market Implications - The proliferation of "0-kilometer used cars" disrupts both the new and used car markets, potentially leading to a decline in consumer trust and market stability [14][17]. - While consumers may benefit from lower prices, they risk losing the rights associated with being the first owner, which could lead to increased maintenance challenges [14][17]. - The ongoing regulatory efforts aim to create a more transparent purchasing environment and enhance consumer rights, which are essential for the sustainable development of the automotive market in China [17].

Group 1 - The core message of the news is the significant market reaction following the commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, leading to a surge in various sectors, particularly in water conservancy and hydropower [1] - The construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo River project has a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, with an expected cement demand of 20 to 30 million tons during the construction phase, translating to an annual average demand of 1 to 1.5 million tons [5][10] - The construction project has positively impacted related ETFs, with notable increases in the building materials and infrastructure sectors, reflecting strong investor enthusiasm [1][5] Group 2 - The building materials ETF saw significant gains, with the top-performing ETFs including the Guotai Fund Building Materials ETF and the E Fund Building Materials ETF, both reaching near their daily limit [1][3] - The trading volume for the Guotai Building Materials ETF reached an extraordinary turnover rate of 546.51%, indicating high investor interest [1][3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the building materials index include Conch Cement, Beixin Building Materials, and Dongfang Yuhong, which are expected to benefit from the increased demand due to the hydropower project [5][6] Group 3 - The construction of the hydropower project is anticipated to boost China's GDP growth by 0.23 percentage points in the first year, highlighting its macroeconomic significance [10] - The industry is experiencing a shift towards healthier competition, moving away from "involution" and focusing on technological innovation and quality [10] - The overall supply-demand dynamics in the building materials sector are expected to improve, with the industry currently at a low valuation and positioning for potential recovery [10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment rating is provided in the report, but individual metal - specific outlooks are given [1] Group 2: Report's Core Views - Gold is expected to be in a high - level oscillation due to the Fed's dovish remarks, the weakening dollar, and central banks' gold purchases. Silver will have a strong oscillation, affected by industrial demand and other metals' prices. Most base metals like copper, zinc, lead, tin, and aluminum are expected to have short - term rebounds, while industrial silicon and polysilicon will have high - level oscillations, and lithium carbonate is expected to be relatively strong [1] Group 3: Summaries by Metal Gold and Silver - **行情回顾**: Despite positive US data, Fed officials' dovish stance and ongoing tariff negotiations led to gold and silver maintaining high - level oscillations [2] - **基本逻辑**: The risk of US economic recession is reduced, there are potential changes in the Fed's leadership and possible rate cuts, Japanese inflation shows mixed trends, and with large tariff uncertainties, gold has a long - term bullish outlook [3] - **策略推荐**: Gold may have short - term adjustments, but with the dollar's medium - term weakness, it has strong support around 760. Silver has support at 9000, and a long - position approach is recommended [3] Copper - **行情回顾**: Shanghai copper strongly rebounded and returned to the 79,000 level [6] - **产业逻辑**: The shortage of copper concentrates persists. New smelter production has increased electrolytic copper output. Domestic social inventory has slightly decreased, and LME inventory accumulation has slowed. Downstream开工率 has increased, and green copper demand in power and automotive sectors offsets the weak real - estate copper demand [6] - **策略推荐**: With expectations of industry reform and positive overseas economic data, short - term copper long positions should be held, and there is long - term confidence in copper. Shanghai copper is expected to be in the range of [78500, 80500], and London copper in the range of [9700, 9900] dollars per ton [7] Zinc - **行情回顾**: Shanghai zinc rose over 2% and broke through the oscillation range [8] - **产业逻辑**: Zinc ore supply is abundant in 2025. Domestic inventory has slightly increased, and LME inventory has decreased. Downstream galvanizing enterprises'开工率 is affected by weak steel demand [8] - **策略推荐**: Short - term zinc long positions should be held cautiously, and some can take profits at high prices. In the long term, short - selling opportunities should be grasped. Shanghai zinc is expected to be in the range of [22500, 23500], and London zinc in the range of [2680, 2880] dollars per ton [9] Aluminum - **行情回顾**: Aluminum prices rebounded, and alumina also showed a rebound trend [10] - **产业逻辑**: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas uncertainties remain, production capacity has increased, inventory has risen, and demand is weak in the off - season. For alumina, there are disturbances in Guinea, and short - term supply is tight, but the overall supply - demand structure is expected to be loose [11] - **策略推荐**: Look for short - selling opportunities during the rebound of Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [20000, 20900]. Alumina is expected to operate in a low - level range [11] Nickel - **行情回顾**: Nickel prices rebounded from a low level, and stainless steel also showed a rebound [12] - **产业逻辑**: For nickel, overseas uncertainties exist, and the price of Philippine nickel ore may decline. Domestic nickel supply - demand improvement is limited, and inventory has increased. For stainless steel, production cuts have weakened, and inventory pressure has reappeared in the off - season [13] - **策略推荐**: Look for short - selling opportunities during the rebound of nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [118000, 122000] [13] Carbonate Lithium - **行情回顾**: The main contract LC2509 increased in position and broke through 70,000 [14] - **产业逻辑**: In the spot market, lithium salt producers are eager to sell, and basis has weakened. Total inventory has increased for 7 consecutive weeks. The new - energy vehicle market's growth has slowed, but the energy - storage market supports demand. There are many supply - side disturbances [15] - **策略推荐**: It is expected to operate strongly in the short term, with a range of [68000, 71000] [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, indicating a "Buy" recommendation [3][4]. Core Views - The report highlights a strengthening expectation against "involution" in the industry, with a focus on the upward trend of bottom metal prices [3]. - The report notes that the precious metals sector is expected to see continued upward price momentum due to central bank purchases and a favorable economic outlook [4][21]. - Industrial metals are projected to have limited downside due to supply constraints and stable demand, particularly in the context of ongoing investments in infrastructure and appliances [4]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.69%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.04%, and the CSI 300 Index gained 1.09% [4][5]. - The non-ferrous metals index outperformed the CSI 300 by 0.73 percentage points, with a weekly increase of 1.82% [4][5]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has risen by 22.61%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 19.47 percentage points [5][8]. Price Changes - Industrial and precious metals saw varied price movements, with copper, aluminum, and energy metals showing increases of 1.71%, 0.03%, and 3.31% respectively [4][9]. - Lithium prices increased by 5.49% for spodumene and 3.94% for battery-grade lithium carbonate, indicating strong demand in the battery sector [4][14]. - The report notes that gold prices have been influenced by U.S. fiscal policies and central bank purchasing trends, with a long-term upward price trajectory expected [4][21]. Key Company Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential, such as Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Zhongjin Gold [4][18]. - For industrial metals, companies like Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4][18]. - In the aluminum sector, companies such as Tianshan Aluminum and China Hongqiao are recommended due to their stable performance and dividend yields [4][18]. Inventory and Supply Analysis - Copper inventories showed a slight decrease in domestic social inventory, while exchange inventories increased, indicating mixed supply dynamics [4][32]. - The aluminum sector is experiencing a tightening supply situation, with production capacity constraints expected to support long-term price increases [4][48]. - Steel production has decreased due to reduced electric furnace output, while demand remains stable, suggesting a balanced supply-demand scenario [4][72].

Industry Overview - The steel industry, which has been sluggish for years, may be emerging from its low point, with 20 listed steel companies in the A-share market providing optimistic mid-year performance forecasts for 2025 [1] - Several companies, including Benxi Steel and Ansteel, reported a better outlook for the steel industry compared to the same period last year, indicating a weak balance between supply and demand in the market [1] Performance Forecasts - Benxi Steel expects a net loss of 1.405 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a reduction in loss by 9.4% year-on-year, while Ansteel anticipates a net loss of 1.144 billion yuan, a significant reduction of approximately 57.46% compared to the previous year [2] - Overall, 17 out of the 20 companies that released forecasts are expected to show varying degrees of growth or improvement in their performance [2] Profitability Trends - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, key steel enterprises achieved a total profit of 40.9 billion yuan from January to May, a year-on-year increase of 56.96%, with an average profit margin of 1.93%, up 0.80 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The reduction in upstream raw material prices and increased demand from downstream sectors such as automotive and manufacturing, driven by policies promoting stable growth and consumption, have positively impacted steel companies' profitability [2] Challenges Faced by Some Companies - A few companies, such as Lingyuan Steel and Fushun Special Steel, are experiencing worsened losses or turning to losses due to various factors, including increased fixed costs and declining product orders and prices [3] - Lingyuan Steel expects a net loss of approximately 577 million yuan, while Fushun Special Steel anticipates a loss between 260 million and 300 million yuan, citing reasons such as increased tax expenses and rising quality control costs [3] Future Outlook - The overall recovery in profitability presents an opportunity for the steel industry to improve processes and adjust product structures, with a focus on enhancing product quality and phasing out outdated production capacity [3] - The ongoing "anti-involution" trend in the industry is expected to further improve the supply-demand dynamics and accelerate the recovery of industry prosperity [3]

Core Insights - The report highlights the potential for an "anti-involution" trend in the industry, which is expected to improve the nominal economic growth rate that has been weak [1][2] - The report discusses the recent meeting of the Central Financial Committee, emphasizing the need to address chaotic low-price competition and promote product quality [2] - The "anti-involution" movement is anticipated to boost prices from the supply side, thereby alleviating the current weak nominal economic growth situation [2] Market Update - The report notes that weak pricing has been a significant drag on the fundamentals, particularly the nominal economic growth rate [2] - Since October 2022, the Producer Price Index (PPI) has been below zero for 32 consecutive months, similar to the period from 2012 to 2016 when supply-side reforms helped PPI recover [2] - The report suggests that the "anti-involution" actions taken by various industries, such as solar and automotive, could lead to short-term positive factors for related domestic demand sectors [2] Short-term Trading Opportunities - The report indicates that the current market environment is conducive to a short-term trading rally in cyclical stocks, given the low valuations and the recent actions taken by companies to limit production [2] - It is noted that the market has been performing well across several sectors, including technology and consumer goods, which may lead to a rotation into cyclical stocks [2] Observations on Style Switching - The report expresses caution regarding the sustainability of the style switch, drawing parallels to the economic environment of 2013-2015 [2] - It suggests that while PPI may stabilize in the second half of the year, a strong upward trend is unlikely, and the recovery of fundamentals will require further observation [2] - The report emphasizes that the current cycle is nearing a mid-cycle point, with potential inventory destocking by year-end, and the effectiveness of policy implementation remains to be seen [2]